OFG, Dawg, Sleeve, munson and others this has been a great post. I too have been trying to mull whether or not there will be a swap, and I'm currently in the "No Swap" camp. My reasons can best be summarized below.

Our current spoilers indicate that...

1) Ghandia, Robb, and Shii Ann have to go before the jury. Snewser indicates that Steph is likely to go before the jury as well. While many people are putting new stock in this spoiler, I tend to give it some credence.

2) 5 Chewies (other than Ghandia) go far. Very far. Ghandia has strong enmity toward at least a couple of them and none as far as we can tell to any Sookies.

For this to work, Ghandia has to get booted principally by her own tribe. If there is a swap, this means she almost has to go in E4. Now it is possible that Chewie could go in down 7-5 and still pull a miracle, but that would almost have to entail one tribe with a 3-2 Chewie advantage and the other with a 5-2 Sookie, with the two switched people including Robb and Shii Ann (or possibly Steph). I admit this is possible. But if there's no swap, who are the most likely Sookie boots. THE SAME PEOPLE. The chances of the split I have described is about 1/4 (actually it's 26.1%). The chance of the switch including both Robb and Shii Ann is 2.61%. Is it possible? Sure. But we already have plenty of scenarios that would lead these people to get the boot without a switch.

Indeed, I think you could make a convincing argument that Ghandia doesn't go until E7 because Chewie makes a heroic comeback, causing the Sookies to jettison the 3 people furthest from the core alliance before the merge. Then Chewie, up 6-4 at the merge jettisons the person none of them can stand to make darn sure she's not on the jury before pagoning the Sookies and still making up most or all of the Final 5.

That last part is all spec. What isn't is that the current obvious boot candidates fit in with spoilers. Both the E3 and E4 switches led to immediate non-obvious boots of members of majority alliances (Silas and Sarah). We have no inkling of that happening here. I am leaning toward no swap in E5.