OK, it's been a while since I'm does one of these... let me think -- oh ya, first we start with this:

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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD
WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS
VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK.
THAT THREAD IS HERE
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OK, with that out of the way, on to the pick. Well, we all know there's not a lot out there to work with this week, but SurvivaBear and idiotcowboy did a couple of great jobs of summarizing it here and here.

If the tribal makeup spoiling is is correct, then the Red Tribe (I'm holding off calling either tribe by name for now, gimme time) would seem to have Ted, John, Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan, Tanya, and Ghandia.

Let's look at that list -- that's no male player under what, 35, (Ted, Brian, Clay, John) two women in 50's (Helen, Jan), a possibly stronger women in Ghandia, and a cute-as-a-button toothpick in Tanya. Does anyone really think that this tribe ISN'T at a physical disadvantage to "Team Hot Bod" which consists of 3 fit young 20-something male studs (Robb, Jeb, Ken), a very fit 60 year old outdoorsman-type (Jake), and 4 20-something fit women??? (Erin, Penny, Shii Ann, Stephanie)

So the question then becomes can the "brain" overcome and more than compensate for the "brawn" involved in the Episode 1 challenge?? If there's one thing we've learned about this show, it's that the answer is likely NO, because sure, the older folks might have MORE brains, but it's been made clear that most of the actions of these contestants are still very foolish. Yes, RED does seem to be rowing in unison right from the beginning -- but remember A) it's a long row B) the presense of more muscles can allow PURPLE to overcome their lower effiency, and C) older or out of shape muscles are more likely to tire as the race progresses.

RED team will lose. Since the conditions are so miserable, I'm expecting Jiffy to give waterproof matches to the winning tribe as a reward (meaning there will technically be a Reward challenge winner as well.)

RED tribe will look around at all it's middle-aged faces and boot the preaching man. Ted and Brian are mountains of strength in this tribe of weakness and won't be going anywhere (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see them realize such themselves and ally together early on.) Jan and Helen both have weight loss spoilers and are ruled out for now. Tanya is too much like some of their own daughters to boot so early on, plus she's the only young blood in the group. Clay might have a napolean complex, but he can cook. Ghandia... well, apparently she's friendly enough with some folks that she makes it for a few days.

That leaves... JOHN -- the sad faced preacher man that's been a bit hard to find in the promos yet actively promoting himself since the day the cast was first announced.

I guess the Lord really didn't care who won this edition of the show...

Alternate is GHANDIA -- it's hard to believe she could get so passionate and bitter about some of her fellow tribemates in just three days, but who knows.