ED is right. Absolutely. Why? Because he factors in the game and its players. Crunching numbers isn't how players operate so, even if that guy's numbers are right, the slight statistical advantage of waiting for the backdoor is lost when you consider how players think and react. By not nominating Dani, Jeff just put a doubt in Rachel and Shelley's mind: Does he have a deal with Danielle? Also, Jeff presented himself as an honest player but now he showed his sneaky side. Adam will doubt Jeff's words much more now.
But, besides that, the guy makes huge assumptions and forgets some factors:
-The biggest assumption is that Adam would use the veto if he wins it. Danielle could make him envision F3 with her and whoever remains. Hell, even Porsche and Kalia could be convinced they don't need the veto because the other one is going.
- Next, the guy makes the additional assumption that all players have equal chances of winning the veto. In any consideration, Dani has to have better odds than Kalia, Adam, Jordan, Shelley and Porsche.
- But the biggest mistake that guy makes is that he completely neglects the downfall of Dani not being nominated but still winning the veto and saving one of her allies. If you nominate her, she can only save herself.