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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
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"Composite Spoiler Framework"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-03-01, 03:32 PM (EST)
 
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"Composite Spoiler Framework" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-03-01 AT 07:16 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 04-03-01 AT 04:29 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 04-03-01 AT 03:38 PM (EST) Each of us has our own theory of how the rest of the game unfolds. These theories are based on what we know happened, (from past episodes)and what we know WILL happen,(from pictures and spoilers). Our speculation needs the framework of the spoilers to support it and give it the chance to ultimately stand on its own...building on the "AK Spoiler Glossary" from last week, here's the framework of what we seem to have right now:
EPS. 10/11 Nick or Colby
"Jerri's friends": include Nick and Colby
"Las Vegas Picture/Audio": Colby and Nick friends
"RyanBBB: (good speculation): Nick, Colby go soon.
EPS. 12/13 Rodger or Tina
"Maralyn's friends": Rodger is last of those mentioned. Doesn't last to the end.
"Rodgers Daughters Comments": Stays through the rains EP9-12.
"Tina in People": Comes back hungery (Final 4)
"RyanBBB": Rodger makes final four.
"GUT" (good speculation): Tina makes final four.
Ted Casablanca on E!: Keith outlasts Rodger
EPS. 14/15/Final Keith or Amber or Liz
"Aboriginal Pictures": Keith, Amber and Liz(or her headdress) make Final 3.
Ted Casablanca on E!: Keith goes far.
Boston Herald: Liz makes final 4.
JP Comments: "Liz kicks but in the challenges" Liz goes far.
Jeff Varners comments"only 3 days to get to know Amber": Amber final 2.
Source Code Theory: Amber and Liz final 2.
"All Female Finale"
Lock-Box Theory: Outcome is unknown: Amber and Liz have no scheduled public appearances.
"Go Kucha" Comment from Alicia at restaurant. Knows it's Kucha vs Ogakor in final 2; doesn't know outcome. "Go Kucha" = "Go Liz". This is the framework we have to work with. Add to it to make it stronger or cover it with your speculation, but if the speculation outweighs the framework it will collapse....
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-03-01, 05:22 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Composite Spoiler Framework" |
Thanks Krautboy, this is a good post. I much prefer to look at the (potential) spoilers then speculating about what the players should/will do. It's all important, but if what "should" happen contradicts a number of reliable spoilers then we must either 1) discount the spoilers, or 2) let go of the "shoulds." I have an aunt who used to say, "Don't should on me," whenever someone told her what she should do, and this is brought to mind when we start talking about what the players "should" do.Comments like "Colby is stupid and should not have gone along with voting for Jerri" or "Keith should have stuck with the alliance" don't do us a shred of good. For instance, attacking Keith's logic ignores the fact that he would likely lose any Final 2 pairing and could very well have left in 5th Place. We only know so much. Ok, enough of that. I would like to look at these spoilers in an alternate format. Of course we all feel differently about how much weight we put into the spoilers, but based on general sentiment concerning the reliability of the ones we have to work with, let's look at likely finishes for each of the remaining seven. Nick: 6th or 7th
Colby: 5th, 6th or 7th (if we believe Vegas spoiler)
Rodger: 4th, 5th or 6th
Tina: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th
Keith: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th (if we believe Ted, then at least one better than Rodger).
Liz: 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th (if we believe Boston Herald)
Amber: 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th This pretty much echoes what you have addressed, but just looks at it from a different angle. Based on all this (and easily supported by some of my own "shoulds") I have been feeling fairly confident about a Liz, Amber, Tina, Keith final four. I see a possibility of Rodger slipping into the final four in Keith or Tina's place only. Liz and Amber are sure things. Now I do believe we are all starting to get a little excited and are jumping the gun to predict Final four, Final two - and in several posts even the winner. It's hard to resist since we are getting so close. But any thing can change week to week. In a sick way, I'm hoping to have my confidence dashed by some turn of events - because I'm starting to feel a little bored thinking I'm 90% sure of the next couple/few bootees.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-01, 07:30 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Composite Spoiler Framework" |
P2S I understand your "sick way" of thinking. I would like to see Nick surprise me and be in the final 2. It is getting a little predictable. I really want to be surprised by the outcome. I want MB to throw us a curveball and have us all going "Wow, I didn't see that coming".
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-01, 09:37 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Composite Spoiler Framework" |
>It's all important, but if
>what "should" happen contradicts a
>number of reliable spoilers then
>we must either 1) discount
>the spoilers, or 2) let
>go of the "shoulds."
>Good point. One thing we tend to forget is that our feelings can be manipulated by editing -- we see less than an hour out of three days, and there's a lot of the little things that they live through that we just aren't privy to. What seems obvious to us doesn't necessarily play out in that bigger framework. >Now I do believe we are
>all starting to get a
>little excited and are jumping
>the gun to predict Final
>four, Final two - and
>in several posts even the
>winner. It's hard to
>resist since we are getting
>so close. Well, we're all excited that this isn't simply going to be watching one tribe systematically pick off the other tribe and then start cannibalization, so we're enjoying the new possibilities. One of the good things that comes out of this speculation is that we're not just jumping to one conclusion and sticking to it. Instead of complaining that things aren't happening the way we want them too, we're trying to figure out how they could work based on the info we have. That's the whole reason I posted my Keith-Amber post (BTW, I do agree with your final four). Some folks think Amber's a gonner, and I can see where they're coming from. I just threw out another idea for people to chew on, so we could play around with the possible outcomes. I agree that we're close but still need more info -- I can think of too many realistic possibilities at this point. But each speculation helps me think of different ways the puzzle pieces could fit together, and that's fun.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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04-03-01, 10:33 PM (EST)
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6. "Heavy Lifting" |
Krautboy, you've taken on the burden of a lot of hard work on this board over the last two weeks, while I have been busy and then ill. I can't thank you enough. I do want to assign more specific meanings to some of these spoilers.Rodger's daughter's comment: My original take on this, using the weather tracker, was that Rodger was booted in E11 or E12. Ted Casablanca: Rodger didn't do as well as Rudy, meaning Rodger finishes no better than fourth. CBS Web pictures (not previously discussed): we have used the lack of pictures on the CBS site as evidence in the past that Nick and Amber were not ready to be booted yet. On average, the people being booted have had about 10 pictures, with no more than three added in a week. Here are the current totals:
Amber - 4, Nick - 7 (3 pictures added last week), Tina - 8, Elisabeth, Keith, Rodger - 10, Colby - 12.
I would argue that the only player who is safe based on these totals THIS week is Amber. Keith in suburban Detroit paper (not previously discussed): like Tina, Keith discussed being ravenously hungry when he arrived home. Evidence that he at least makes the final four. Jerri's friends: she also talks about Rodger. Game logic (not previously discussed): Nick was last Ogakor target but won immunity. The list of Kuchas for the fire runs 1. Nick, 2. Liz, 3. Rodger. Ogakor MUST vote out a Kucha or lose control (or break up).
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-01, 03:08 PM (EST)
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7. "bump" |
to move ahead of skierdude's exclamation points from hell
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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04-04-01, 03:08 PM (EST)
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8. "Boston Herald E10" |
My take on the Boston Herald's reluctance to publish its E10 pick today is that Nick is local, and the Herald isn't sure how to play it ... but they think Nick is gone. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-01, 03:24 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Boston Herald E10" |
Good Take on it Aya. Makes sense to me.
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