OK... geez, it seems like it's been a while since we did this... in the meantime we had this wierd dream about this mutant Survivor show -- only this time the 16 players had to endure surviving BOOT CAMP, and the person voted out every week gets to pick someone else to take with 'em (how's that for revenge?) ...but that can't be true, I mean come on, a rip-off show like that would be even more obvious than that old 'Greed' Millioniare wanna-be, who would dare air such a copycat show? What, it's not a dream...

Ok, back to the task at hand... another week, and again little more than speculation to go on. Personally, I don't see anything having changed since our week 8 prediction, in which we stated the below theory. Bottom line, if there is going to be a single-person Ogawhore defection, this is the week it has to happen. Compound this with the obvious attempts to soften up Jerri's character in last week's highlight episode, and things like Keith's apparent desire to see Jerri out before him at all costs, and we think this might finally be the week that America gets what they want -- The Head, woops, we mean The Ouster Of Jerri.

Yes, we are beginning to feel a bit like the boy who cried wolf, and the wait for Jerri's ouster is beginning to rival our wait of a Red Sox World Series victory, but as the weathermen say, all the conditions are right. ...all it takes is one of the 5 Kucha to crumble this week and Jerri's gone -- she loses any tie due to her previous council votes -- and her loss might guarantee the defector a Final Four placement. For those who's hold in the game is uncertain -- like Keith -- this might be too good a chance to pass up, and it includes the added bonus of getting his stated goal of ousting Jerri.

So that's our pick... OGAKOR breaks down, loses a member (these folks aren't anywhere as tight at the Tagi Alliance was), Jerri's our bootee pick.

As our alternate pick, frankly, we don't see any other Ogakor getting eaten by it's own at this point (in that case maybe two of them would turn on the other three in Week 10, again, see below) so that would mean the alliance would hold and another kucha would go... and if that's the case then we'll go with the popular vote and go with Nick The Forgotten Man (though being sick, and having been barely featured in the show to date, he wouldn't seem to be a logical pick for Ogakor). Of the three, Liz would seem to be the biggest physical threat versus the older Rodger and the sick Nick. For that reason, (hey, it's as good as any other we've seen today) we'll take a flyer on Liz winning immunity in Week 9. Oh, and to round out the action, we'll offer a bonus prediction that Colby and Jerri win the reward challenge.

Our original week 8 prediction comments follow below:

For anyone thinking this is the Ogawhore defection week -- if the Ogawhore members are smart, there will be no defection this week. ...though an Ogawhore defection would make more sense this week than last, I still think it's too early for a Ogawhore to change sides. Unless something new develops this week within the internal Ogawhore dynamics (always a possibility with this group), I think they will last one more week -- but then WATCH OUT.

At first glance, logically, defecting last week would appear to have made have made more sense since it would have put the defector at an immediate 6-3 advantage. Defecting this week only puts the defector at an immediate 5-3 advantage. Last week it would have taken two folks breaking off from the Kucha pack to have caused them problems, with the post-defection advantage of a defection this week being a much riskier single vote advantage. But, to understand the advantage of a defection, you have to think about it from the
defector's risk/reward point of view.

If a Ogawhore defected last week s/he'd only have been likely to make the Top 6 before Kucha turned back on him/her. However, if they defected now they'd likely get a Top 5 finish (and from there it's only two immunities to the Final Three where the last immunity winner choses who to bring with them into the Final Two) ...so while it DOES make more advantage to defect now, next week is an even better opportunity: Kucha will only have 3 members left, so an Ogakor defector in Week 9 gains an immediate 4-3 advantage and a virtual guarantee to finish in the Top 4 -- then needing to only win one immunity to make it to to the Final Three where the winner the final immunity choses who to bring with them into the Final Two. ...so it's a Top 4 finish versus the scenario where if they fail to defect and Ogawhore wipes out all then Kucha -- with only a guaranteed Top 5 finish (especially for someone who feels vulnerable and thinks they might be the first of the five Ogawhore to go when the internal cannibalization begins -- someone like Keith.)

If no Ogawhore defects in Week 9, then there is likely no reason to defect after that -- a Week 10 Ogawhore member defection to the two remaining Kucha would fail, with the remaing four Ogawhores voting out one of the two remaining Kucha and the defection failing. (anyone else think it's NOT a coincedence that it is between the airing of Week 8 and Week 9 that Burnett had chosen to air the "First 24 Days" Special??? ...what happens in Week 9 may very much determine the fate of the game.

(this does of course assume that the Ogawhore defectors number a single person -- if Jerri and Amber were to defect as a group, then they could plan a Week 10 defection to the two remaining Kucha that would leave a WIDE OPEN Final Six -- two Kucha, aligned in a fragile alliance with two former Ogakor (Jerri and Amber), and the two remaining Ogakor. Now that would make for a very potentially very interesting Week 11 episode... near endless possibilities, with the possible change of any of the six being the deciding difference.)