LAST EDITED ON 04-05-09 AT 07:35 PM (EST)

I enjoyed your analysis Veruca. Stephen, JT and Sierra have had very interesting stories indeed and their actions will have impact but, if you read my thoughts, you'll see that I'm keeping my eyes on a dark horse.

The recap reminded us that the Exile Alliance had both idols and that it was Spenser’s lack of defensive play during the IC that caused him to be voted out and cost Jalapao the momentum.

Maybe something noteworthy: When Jeff mentioned defensive play and we heard JT snapping at Spenser, we saw Sierra draped all over JT, ensuring good defensive coverage.

Night 15 at Jalapeno

Taj and Joe were heard saying that Tribal had been difficult

JT had a confessional: “It didn’t bother me at all to see Spenser go, only the fact that, if there is a merge at 10, rather than going in 6-4, we’ll only have a shot of going in 5–5. ....we’re all united, if we lose again, it’s gonna be another tough one

When the sun came up, Sydney was talking with Joe.
“I may go home if we lose again” she said as we saw Stephen walking by, reminding us who was targeting Sydney.
Joe tried to be reassuring: “Everybody trusts you.”

Sydney, in confessional: "I definitely feel nervous about being a target if we do end up losing the next immunity challenge because the boys may stick together. I feel like Taj and I are on the chopping block.”

Joe had a confessional: “Sydney is very nervous because, every time we lose, she is getting potentially closer to going home. Taj is a very strong challenger for a spot. I got a little thing for Syd. She’s gorgeous so she’s safe.”

Joe told Sydney: “As far as I’m concerned, you got a free pass.”

Day 16 at Timbira:

We had one more of those Coach moments when he decided how to cook the beans. The scene, trivial in itself, showed the tensions in camp.

Coach told us: “The beans are just barely done and that’s when they eat them because they can’t just wait.”

From the shelter, Brendan and the others were looking at Coach who was stirring the pot of beans in the rain. “We shouldn’t allow him back in here until he boils the beans.”

But Coach, despite all his talk, didn’t stay out there under the rain.
Brendan in confessional, said: “That was a selfish decision. The worst part is he didn’t stay out there and tend to the beans. It was another one of those “Coach’s moments.”

It finally stopped raining and they went out to eat. Debbie said: “They taste funny. Some of these beans are like charcoal.”

Sierra, in confessional: “Eventually, the beans burnt and stuck to the whole entire bottom. We lost a lot of beans. There’s a part of me that’s finally just had it. I’m tired of feeding his needs.”

Coach was still smiling and enjoying the beans but he sensed something was wrong. “Don’t be mad” he told Sierra.
“I’m just frustrated” she answered, adding “as you would have been to one of us if we had done it.”
Coach, mockingly: “And the truth shall set you free, Sierra. Go and be free.

Coach in confessional: “It’s always about the beans. Beans, beans, beans. It was a combination that I wanted to cook them longer and it started raining. It was just a bad combination, there’s no need to blame anybody.”

To Sierra and the others, he added: “But I will take the full responsibility, I don’t care. I screwed up the beans, my bad; forgive me everyone, especially you Sierra who seems to have the most angst about it.”
Sierra said: “If you want your beans cooked in a different way, maybe you should make them in a different pot.”

Coach didn’t appreciate being told how to do things. He told us: “I probably won’t make a separate pot for my beans. I can’t believe this is going on over such a trivial subject. Screw all this stuff, it’s all meaningless.”

Brendan concluded: “With Coach; there are probably five, six situations like that where Coach has done things and we’re like: “Come on, that’s not really for the best of the team that’s for the best of just you. He does some irritating things but I totally accept it because he is a predictable player and predictable in this game is great.”

Interestingly, we didn’t see the scene from the previews where Debbie had a confessional in which she said: “We were all frustrated with Coach.”

Jalapao

In a very telling juxtaposition, Jalapao’s leader was also busy cooking beans but here there was no drama, just people enjoying their meal. To cut two scenes back to back like that was to show how much JT is the opposite of Coach, that JT is the real Renaissance man that does everything well.

JT told us: “It’s day 16 and it’s getting strange around here. I am a country boy and it’s hard for me to be mean to people. I’ve been honest with everybody and I hope to stay that way. Hopefully, everyone’s been honest with me as well.”

Just then, we saw his closest ally, Stephen on screen, reminding us that not everyone has been honest with JT.
- “I’m going to tell JT I do have the idol” said Taj.
Stephen didn’t like that idea: “So what does telling him about it accomplish? I think it might make him wary of you.”

Taj had a confessional: “After the last tribal council when JT voted Spenser over me, that’s when I knew I had JT in our corner.”

She asked Stephen if it would be better to give JT some clues and ask for his help in finding the idol.
Stephen had to consider this: “Taj said she wanted to tell JT about the idol. Until JT knows, I’m basically controlling the information flow between TaJ and JT. I want to remain that bridge because, if they connect, I might become a less essential part of the loop.”

Taj’s confessional continued: “The real alliance for me is my 4 person alliance once the merge happens which is Steve, Brendan, Sierra and myself. Here, I just want to make it to the merge and, with JT on my side, I’ll be in pretty good shape.”

Taj asked Stephen: “Absolutely sure you don’t want to bring JT in?”
Stephen answered “No, I’m not sure at all”.

When Pigs Fly:

We saw Sierra’s shock, Coach’s smile and Erinn saying “crazy” when Jeff told them that Spenser had been voted out.
During the challenge, we heard Brendan and JT giving out directives in building the barricade while Sierra and Stephen were shown surveying what the other team was doing. Maybe something to note also was when the camera showed Timbira’s barricade, we saw Erinn through the bars, sitting as if she was in jail.
Because Jeff said Sydney and JT had a good thing going, one can’t help but wonder if it was to plant the seed that JT made the wrong decision in voting her out.
At first Timbira was noted to be on a roll, then they fell apart and finally came back when “Tyson snaked it through to Coach” to win the challenge. Is that how the season will evolve?

During the celebration, Sierra and Erinn both jumped in Brendan’s arms, Debbie went to Coach while Tyson celeberated on his own.

With Timbira having to decide on sending someone to exile, Taj told us: “Everything is in place for us. We have both idols, we have the alliance intact… All I kept thinking was send someone else.”

Brendan obliged by sending Joe to the Exile Sand Dune.
Joe picked Erinn, explaining: “The decision to bring Erinn with me to exile was strategic because, going into a merge, we need somebody to flip. My charm game is definitely part of my strategy and she’s an attractive woman.”

Heading back to camp, JT told us what he thought: “It sucked but I don’t really care about a reward, it’s just a reward but if we lose the next immunity challenge, we go down 6-4 in numbers so we just can’t blow it, we need to win.”

The Reward:

At the waterfall, Brendan was the main narrator: “We saw the perfect All-American picnic… The first bite of the burger was like heaven. The water is so crystal clear, it’s beautiful.”

Debbie chimed in: “Manners were out the window. Eating as much as we could, we were like animals.”

The editors poked a little more fun at Coach, showing him stuffing his face just as we saw a little monkey doing the same. Then, at the waterfall, we saw him flip head first out of his floater.

Coach, being the nice guy that he is, said: “A small part of me feels guilty that Erinn is not here but, in my opinion, she’s lucky to still be in this game. These people in the tribe, these are the people that I would pick to be enjoying this.”

Brendan concluded: “All in all, a great win, a great day. There’s no bickering and it’s good to feel that momentum back, especially this late in the game.”

Exile Island
Day 16

Erinn and Joe arrived and saw 2 urns. Only Erinn’s contained a scroll. Walking away with her clues to the idol, Erinn said: “It’s very apparent that the idol is not here. It’s back at camp and, if it’s back at camp, there’s more than 1. Now, I have to figure out: Do I trust Joe, do I not trust Joe because I have no alliances out here. He would be a good ally and, if we were aligned and had two idols, that may not be a bad thing for us.”

Joe tried to get information from Erinn by asking who her favorite was over at Timbira.
Erinn answered: “I don’t know about favorites. Can you have favorites out here? How about you?”
Joe said: “JT. JT’s a good dude.”
Erinn agreed: “He seems like it.”
Joe asked: “Need help with those clues?”
Erinn answered: “Maybe, I’ll let you know.”
“Then we could work on them together.”

Joe had a confessional: “I have no clue where the idol is. I think she knows where it’s at. Hopefully, I can get it out of her. We’ll see how it goes.”

Erinn told Joe that there was more than one idol but that they weren’t here.
“Let’s go find both of them” said Joe.

(In a little wink back at the Micronesia season, this was said while Joe was handling a piece of wood, a stick. Remember Eliza’s “it can’t be the immunity idol; it’s just a stick.)

Erinn had another confessional: “I decided I was going to tell Joe about the idol. I’m hoping that Joe turns out to be a trustworthy individual.”

Hearing the clues, Joe said: “It’s at tree mail.”
Erinn warned: “If it’s still there.”
Joe concluded: “This couldn’t be any better right now. I picked the empty urn and now I know where the idol is. If Erinn and I get both idols, that’s a humongous alliance. That could probably rival anything I got back at camp.”

Jalapeno
Day 16:

Stephen was talking with Taj: “When Joe comes back, he’s going to have enough clues to find the idol in thirty seconds.”
Taj figured that she needed to go into the Fake Idol business. That way, she could put something in the place of the idol ASAP.
Stephen liked that idea and offered some of his stuff; feathers and leather straps.

Taj set out to make her fake idol. First, she needed to take a look at the real one to have an idea on how to make hers look authentic. She went through Stevie’s pants to retrieve the real idol. Stevie didn’t like seeing her take possession of the idol but what could he say?

Taj said: “Hopefully, I will be able to throw Joe off.”

Taj showed us the finished product and it looked very good.

After being so smart about the fake idol, Taj was dumb about the real one, hiding it in her bag which she left in camp. JT found it without even looking for it.

JT was pleased to tell us all about it: “I grabbed a bag and, sitting right on top, was the hidden immunity idol. Apparently Taj found the idol.”

He told Stephen about his find and Stephen had to do some quick thinking: “When JT found the idol, I was thinking what the heck do I say? I said I know but I don’t think I had the appropriate amount of shock on my face.”

He told his ally that Taj had just found it and had showed it to him.
JT was happy to see that the game had just changed and that they had a hidden immunity idol at camp.

Stephen told Taj that they needed to let JT know that she had the idol. “I wanted to let Taj know that JT had found the idol in her bag and that she should tell JT that she has it. So, the three of us are on the same page.”
Taj gave JT the “news” that she had the idol, JT said he had seen it, Taj promised that JT could use the idol if he felt he needed it.

JT said: “Taj just made a promise to me that anytime I may need the immunity idol, she would give it to me. That’s a big promise. Hopefully, she’ll keep it.”

Stephen arrived just then and Taj asked that the three join hands to make a pact to the merge.
Stephen said: “To the merge? You mean to the end!”
More importantly, Stevie convinced Taj to take the idol out of her bag and put it in the back of his pants, where it belonged.

JT concluded by saying: “Taj just put herself, me and Stephen in a really tight alliance. It doesn’t make me uncomfortable that I found the idol before Taj showed it to me. It took her a little while to come around but she was honest. Stephen has been very honest with me and I feel I can trust Stephen all the way. I just hope I’m not wrong.”

The Immunity Challenge:

Of note, Tyson taunted JT after breaking his last tile: “I’ll come over and do it if you want.”
Erinn and Brendan were once more the ones that did the puzzle for Timbira.

Asked by Jeff how he felt immediately after the win, Coach boasted in front of Jalapao: “It’s incredible. This was just so pivotal, this win, because it just gives us control of the game.”

Knowing Coach’s track record, that would be an indication that Timbira isn’t in total control.

When Jeff told them that they would be going to Tribal Council, Sydney gave us her thoughts: “It’s not a good thing to go to tribal council. I’ve been told by Joe that I am safer than Taj but, no one is safe at this point. It really just sucks.”

Jalapao
Day 18.

JT was still feeling sorry for the loss but Stephen was comforting him by saying he always gives his best.
Joe winced in pain.
Taj commented: “Your leg looks bad. It’s red all the way down from the knee to the ankle.”
Joe figured it would be better in a day or so.

Stephen asked Joe about his trip to exile with Erinn: “Did she show you?”
Joe said: “I tried to juice her for info but I got nothing. It was a long two days.”
Taj was biting her lips, trying not to laugh. That became harder when, saying he wanted to get some water, Joe raced over to the tree mail location.

Joe, not realizing that it was too easy, said: “I got the idol in 10 seconds. I was stoked, it was pure relief. Now, I think I have a great shot at extra time in this game.”

Later, with Taj out of camp, Joe tried to get everyone to vote her out.
Sydney was happy: “Tonight, they are all voting for Taj. Joe made sure they were all on the same page and that’s that. I think Taj knows something’s up but she is not someone to stab people behind their back or to talk crap just before leaving for Tribal Council.”

Taj saw it differently: “I have JT and Stephen’s trust completely plus I have the idol. I think Sydney believes everything is going to work in her favor because Joe is going to protect her but I feel pretty confident I’m not going.”

JT was still miserable as he talked to Stephen: “It’s gonna make it really hard for us to pull anything off after the merge.”
Stephen replied: “That’s why we need Taj around.”
“So, we should send Sydney home… Joe is gonna want to know why it was Sydney and not Taj.”

Stephen knew that it would be a hard task. He waited to be in the lake with Joe to tell him: “I know you would like to be with Sydney but it doesn’t mean anything right now. Going into the merge, we need to make inroads over there and I think Taj has a real connection to Brendan and Sierra.”

Joe told us: “JT and Stephen had this crazy look in their eyes about keeping Taj. They start talking about all these plans that could happen. I can’t be on board with this. I want Sydney to make it to the merge and I want to honor that. The three of us weren’t in any agreement on who to vote tonight. If they don’t give me consideration, I might give the idol to Sydney and make a point.”

Clouds gathered and a whole nest of spiders got disturbed. Something big was about to happen, or so Burnett wanted us to think.

JT and Stephen were still not sure what to do.
JT said: “If we try to vote Taj out tonight, she could use her idol. If we get rid of her, the idol’s gone too.”
Stephen replied: “That’s not true.”
JT realized: “She gave it to you, didn’t she?”
Stephen nodded and both guys smiled at the possibility.
“It’s technically mine” said Stephen.

JT told us: “Taj feels comfortable right now because she has a strong alliance. But the idol is in Steven’s and my possession already. We could vote Taj out and still have the idol. I don’t know what I’m doing; I’ll probably decide when I get there. It’s terrible, I’m going to hell.”

Tribal Council

Asked about the state of affairs at Jalapao, JT said: “Things aren’t very good for Jalapao right now. If there is a merge, we are down and out.”
Stephen said that the merge was looming real large. “We’re all a little bit intimidated by what may happen.”
Joe said: “I would say the vote tonight is based on trust. I want to have somebody I can share with.”
Taj was asked about spending so much time on Exile Island. She said: “It’s not that they don’t trust me it’s just the situations I’ve been in are distrustful… I’ve been on Exile with Sierra and Brendan so I think I could probably talk them into flipping over to our side.”
Jeff noted to JT that Taj made relationships but he hadn’t.
JT answered: “She could always fall in with them and start another alliance and we’d still be sitting ducks.”
Sydney “I definitely bring loyalty to these people”
Jeff said that Sydney was the opposite of Taj.
JT had the last word: “I got to make a decision to send someone home. It’s a terrible situation for me to be in right now.”

After Sydney left, Jeff said: “There was a lot of discussion tonight about a possible merge. If indeed you guys merge down two members, you got your work cut out for you.”

The Characters:

Jalapao: Even if they are down 6-4, we probably won’t be seeing them go down one after the other. Coach cannot be in control of this! However, I don’t see any of them winning this game because they have never been described as underdogs.

Joe: We didn’t hear anything from Joe about wondering if the idol was real and he was shown to be out of the loop with what was being decided in the tribe. Joe is being set up either as the “Dumb Player” who will play a fake idol thinking he is safe or the talk about his injury is to set the stage for his evacuation. Either way, Joe doesn’t have much longer. His importance will be in seeing how his actions affect Erinn’s story.

Taj: Hearing her say that she has Stephen’s and JT’s trust is worrisome when you consider how much scheming is happening in her back. With all her eggs in the Exile Alliance’s basket, it will be interesting to see her next episode but it feels like Taj will be a “Victim” of someone schemes.

JT: He was getting a “Hero’s” edit but we had a little different look of JT this week. Most noteworthy is the direct comparison the editors made between him and Coach during the bean cook-out. With Coach obviously portrayed as a loser, does that mean JT is being presented to be our winner? Possible but there are some worries with his edit: The recap reminded us that he was responsible for Spenser’s exit and hearing him say: “It didn’t bother me at all to see Spenser go” doesn’t fit with his nice country-boy story, the guy that said he couldn’t be mean to people. Hearing him so casually targeting Taj also doesn’t fit. JT had never been presented as a new “iceman”. A late change of persona is rarely a good sign.

Stephen: He is presented as the best player out there. If this was a season that was based on strategy, he would have been presented with the perfect role. This, however, is a season of first impressions and finding who you can trust. We are clearly shown that no one should trust Stephen so the question becomes: Will he be able to keep his innocent appearance or will he be uncovered for the snake that he is continually being compared to? Maybe an indication came when he told us that he didn’t have the appropriate amount of shock on his face when he lied to JT. Maybe the continual reminders that he isn’t sure how to proceed (as shown once more when he told Taj he was not sure if they should tell JT) is to prepare us for when he misses his opportunity. If Stephen wins that would mean he would have been able to fool them all for 39 days with the first impression he made. Not a bad story at all.

Timbira: It always felt that the winner had to come from this tribe. Compared to Jalapao where the only question seemed to be “what will Stephen and JT do?” Timbira has always been kept in a very confusing state. The best indication of this was Debbie’s confessional “We were all frustrated with Coach” being left out.

Debbie: Having made the merge, there is no doubt that Debbie will be carried far but her only impact could be as the swing vote between Coach and Brendan’s side…If Coach still has a side.

Coach: He will continue to create chaos around him but I expect we will see him leave as soon as it is safe to do so. Maybe Timbira will wait until one more Jalapao is voted out, maybe they already have had enough of him.

Tyson: He was only used for a few laughs in this episode and that seems to be the role he is confined to. Tyson wants Erinn voted out. Tyson wants Brendan voted out. Tyson wants Coach voted out. He seems to be all talk, no action.

Brendan: He had a very strong episode, one which showed him as the real leader of Timbira. I would be very surprised to learn that Brendan didn’t know he had the votes against Coach to take him out whenever he wanted. Coach, Tyson and Stephen are presented as his potential rivals so his road to the end is shrouded in doubt which is good for a winner. Brendan winning would be the story of someone who didn’t make a bad impression at first and who didn’t form any opinions of others either but still was able to work with them to get to the end. It seems that they could have made his story more interesting if he was the winner.

Sierra: Where has her story gone? Lately, we only see her in battle with Coach. We have heard that she is pissed, she is frustrated, she is mad, that she doesn’t really care if she stays or if she goes. The only positive we saw in this episode was when she seemed to be the one that stopped JT during the previous episode’s challenge. Unless she has a strong episode, I think we may have had our final 2 results reversed. The vote should go to someone who told us they wanted to be there rather than someone who doesn’t care.

Erinn: She continues to say that she has no alliances but we know she is clearly going up against Coach. It stands to reason that, even if they didn’t make a pact to the end, the players who are frustrated with Coach are united in some sort of fashion. Seeing her always teamed up with Brendan during puzzle challenges suggests that something from her story has been kept hidden. Showing us just how clueless Joe was about the fake idol and the vote in Jalapao could be part of Erinn’s story, to present her even more as an isolated player who could fall for an alliance that isn’t worth much.

This episode was very solid for her when you consider her on-going story. It made sense that Joe picked her because we had been told by Stephen that Jalapao considered her a flip possibility. Joe reminded us of just that. Coach reminded us that he considers her an unworthy opponent, lucky to still be in the game. In line with her episode #2 Tribal Council comment, she told us she didn’t know if she could trust Joe or not and only told him about the clues after careful consideration. If Joe being clueless was important to create doubts about Erinn’s future, showing his loyalty to Sydney showed that Erinn was right in considering him trustworthy. Joe isn’t Stephen.

It will be very important to see how Erinn is presented during the merge episode especially because, with Timbira winning immunity, we didn't get to see what she did once back in camp. Still, I’d put money on Erinn being the winner of Survivor Tocantins.

I had fun writing the summary for this episode in Bashers here. I hope you'll enjoy it.