GB great thoughts I do appreciate your input, my "take" alone is not enough . I need to learn to cliffnotes my thoughts though lol so bear with the length.

I will have to reiterate my thoughts pre-show that you can take the players away from their season but you can't take their personalities away. Last night proved that, try as you might, there are core traits in all of us that rule our decisions. Understand that tribe makeup, immunities and the like have an impact on longevity but most of the time in watching this show, the players essentially end up losing the game on their own lack of merit.

Examples........

Kathy and her consternation about her lack of hugging from her tribe. “I got hugged by Chapera in a second, but that’s not this tribe.”

To a skilled, strategic player should this be an issue? No it shouldn't yet to Kathy, who, at her core, is an emotionally fueled person, it was an issue. This only tells me that she has not adjusted her game and her she will allow herself to make the same mistakes. The storm we witnessed that Kathy was immersed in is very symbolic of herself. She is up/down, up/down and last night her coming off a wonderful day, being greeted not the way she wanted, her vision of her tribe - very very indicative of her own self.

And Kathy's thoughts on Jerri "I don't want her in the final four, I want someone who works"

Now, should this REALLY matter if you are playing to win a game? You want someone you can beat, not someone who works. Kathy, despite all her pre-training has not learned what failed her before.

As an aside, nice symbolism of the rainbow and her comment "Rainbow, that is a good omen." It is for her, as her happy days are ahead because she will be reunited with her Happy Tribe soon. But what will happen when the gloves are off at Chapera? Kathy will again feel emotionally crippled.

Now onto her male counterpart

Lex is fooling himself with his commentary to Ethan "......need to talk about game/friendship. I know hard for you to see how they can be separate, I think better for my game if you go out tonight, nothing to do with friendship, THIS IS BUSINESS, I have to play differently......"

Lex is NOT playing differently. If he was playing differently (i.e. non emotionally) then he would NOT have booted Ethan or Colby. He has an agenda and it comes from his fears and emotions. Get rid of the strong men so he can be the number one male around. Telling OTHERS it is business is telling ME that you are not conducting business. Brian NEVER spoke those words to the people he was getting rid of, he simply narrarated it to us. By telling someone it is business is showing your concern they won't like what you are doing.

And his quote "We lost the lion's share of what we had" He isn't kidding but I'm not talking about rice, I'm talking about tribe members that might have pushed you on the win side like Hatch, Colby and now Ethan.

And Jerri???? "I’m being evil right now, but boy does it feel good.” along with her "........bellboy took all my baggage away" Jerri is now a boot waiting to happen. Her self worth was ruled by her revenge and it has overshadowed any objective behavior by her to ingratiate herself with a tribe that she DIDN'T EVEN ORIGINATE FROM.

Only Shii Ann is being overlooked in the whole process simply because everyone is being fueled by their own agendas and personalities. She was able to pull it together to be MM's welcome wagon (though I will say the likes of some Chapera men would probably dislike her) and while being used as a vote source as I figured, she is not a "power player" as she so aptly described everyone else. Therefore she is no threat. Her problem LAST time was her TRYING to be a power player. If she keeps this up, she will do better. The minute she TRIES to be something she isn't, she is in trouble. But that doesn't usually get you a million as Jeff stated in the challenge

"Shii Ann, just short of the target" No truer words are spoken I will hazard a guess.

Jenna summed up MM nicely: “They’re not happy. They’re slowly losing everything they have. They’re not happy.”

Again, Chapera has not disappointed me.

Tom could be in a glorious situation. He has a friend in Rupert, a disarming personality and Rob has other big men to make fun of. He plays correctly. Whatever issues he has (and we KNOW he has one about Rupert being his replacement) he doesn't allow to dictate. What did he do? He befriends Rupert; that is smart gameplay. The problem with Tom is simply the same as Africa....... he is not an aggressive player when he has to be. Tom deflects, disarms, etc. but in a situation that he can gain the control he needs, he falls short. Recall when Tom had the opportunity to take a bull by the horns and vote Lex out in Africa? He chose not to do so and that caused a downward sprial for him.

Rupert has clearly not changed nor will he ever. He is Hercules on the outside and a little boy on the inside. Again with his "I'm so excited (re: sling) I'm going to prove my worth" How much self punishment does this man have to take? He is emotionally starved and the one fish he has to look out for is the shark (which he couldn't catch) Because every shark he meets in his life will devour him. The same chemistry he had with Burton has flared up with Rob. Rupert is not long for this game because he is too fueled by his emotionally baggage.

Alicia and her mouth. Have you not learned? Also may mean something, may mean nothing. Alicia vs. SA - TWICE? Interesting if it played out that SA and Alicia are the two boot candidates at some point, will Alicia lose again?

GetBent I agree that Rob's wish for the monetary booty has been shown as more appealing than the Amber booty but ironically I see a shift happening. If I recall previously, Rob made it known at TC (upon being asked by Jeff regarding his relationship with Amber) that he was here to play the game. Now, we are being given......

Rob and his “It would be nice to have a million dollars and take the girl away too,” along with his (constant constant) arrogant remarks. Rob may get the girl but I don't know that he will get both. Rob got kicked to the curb because of the twist in his own season, similar things could happen. However, what I find intriguing is that he is allowing emotions to start coming into play this time. Amber may, in fact, be his downfall, whether she is directly involved or by sheer virtue of the fact that they are a couple and therefore need to be broken up is another.

Amber and her potentially ironic comment "I feel 99% percent secure with Rob........" It is that 1% that gets you huh Amber? Amber is not doing anything differently except her shield this time is Rob and not Jerri; we just see more of her because Jerri was the "ooh la la" in S2. Amber is overlooked though because her shield is high profile, like Jerri was. All this could do is insulate her for awhile. There comes a point where the boot is directed at you when you are left alone at the altar.

Jenna has not vanished; she still brought home her bacon with the items from MM. Jenna's emotional investment is gone now, her goal at Saboga was tyranny on past winners. She has her wish and now can play. Jenna, by luck of the draw, ended up on a winning tribe and ended up on a tribe where even HER mouth could go unnoticed.

Jeff's final comment: “Trust will become the single most valuable resource in this game and the most difficult to find.” The game always seems to come down to this. Those who can succeed are those who will not allow their issues to be their downfall and also remember that trust in a game of Survivor is a play by play commodity. If one can separate their own issues with trust, loyalty, emotion and arrogance(along with some luck in the game) can succeed.

By reasons of editing and story alone, I see.......
---Kathy, Lex and Rupert taken down by their issues with loyalty and trust
---Jerri, Alicia and Rob taken down by their issues with arrogance and temperament
----Tom, Jenna, Amber and SA in actuality sitting the best (though SA is situated on a numbers problem with no solid previous background to fall back on)

Considerations: an individual immunity is a biggie. We have seen arrogance of Rob's nature in the past be shelved because of immunity as well as UTR with no place to turn last a bit longer in a crucial immunity which we can never foresee.

The Amber and Rob romance is highlighted in that we will see it probably be tested by either their own decision or Mark Burnett and because of the novelty but I never felt it was indicative of them winning the money

As of now, regardless of our wonderful "spoilers" Tom, Amber, Jenna and SA (outside of numbers) seem to be in the best position because they are being overlooked and not allowing their emotions to essentially dictate their game.

Would love to hear what others are thinking.