LAST EDITED ON 03-12-04 AT 10:15 AM (EST)

You are all off to an early start!!
Forgive my ramblings.......

I went over my first "analysis" if you will and most of it is still holding water; mainly in that a leopard can't change his/her spots. Our personalities are shaped/formed at a very young age and only with a lot of work or some major impact that shakes up our lives can a person truly change who they are.

As of this week, those thoughts of mine are very apparent to me. For example:

Ethan “I’m struggling to find my niche"

Still holding fast and true. Now mind you, I really felt that Ethan's swan song won't happen until Rob has some influence on it and hopefully that will still happen. I find it very hard to believe with the animosity shown ESPECIALLY with Ethan pinpointing (as Colby) last night "doesn't like losing to Chapera AND Rob" Foreshadowing?

We know the deal here, past winner, big target. Again though, I see the main goal of his demise is more because of his "golden boy stature" that irks the likes of Rob (not too mention his cavorting with Jenna and Amber) over the fact he was a past winner. He was the hero, now he could be that goat he speaks about.

INITIAL QUOTES
Lex: "I think I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t a day that went by since being in Africa, that I didn’t think at some point--even if it was just for a moment--about Survivor, about the game, and about the possibility of coming back one day.”
Kathy "Survivor is first and foremost a psychological game"
LAST NIGHT
Lex "You don't get far playing safe. I already made a decision to change my strategy."
Kathy "You know what they (Chapera) have got that we don't have, they are having fun."
AND A DOOZY FROM WHEN HATCH LEFT
"I have got myself in the middle. I don’t know how I got there. So do you trust your gut, you trust loyalty, or you just go with sorta what makes sense? And where am I going? I don’t know"

Again, I lump them together b/c I do feel they are similar in personality and game play. Emotional people and caring people BUT we saw in the past how emotions ended up overriding practical game play and while some of you may feel (and understandbly so) Lex made a logical and timely decision, to me, it was a decision that was first and foremost emotionally based. While some may think (again understandly so) that Kathy is sizing up the situation practically, she is literally falling under an emotional spell. Mind you, I think their WILL to win is great but personalities are personalties. They are warm, parenting people who also, in turn, think that way.

Kathy is being led down an emotional path of getting what she is lacking from MM (meanwhile Tom gloats over the trap they laid for her)
Lex has laid back during the Hatch reign and seemingly was keeping himself in check but how dare Colby rise to power when Lex's natural inclination IS to be the father and leader of his tribe. He states he made a decision to change his strategy. How? Because he got rid of strength; HOW did he base his decision? I would hazard a guess more so out of emotional gratification than practicality. Even SHE questions going down the path of sense OR the path of loyalty/trust

Alicia
"Everybody knows that if you push my buttons you could get me to crack. That could be my demise.”

Make no mistake, backseat Alicia is only temporary. We saw some narrative perspective from her on Kathy as well as an obvious (to me) setting of her on the fringes of Chapera but have no doubt Alicia (and her mouth) will rise again. Why? Because that is who she is. The focus is off her mouth right now because Chapera is happy. Alicia ironically if stepping back is not in a bad position but will her mouth put her in one?

Tom
INITIAL QUOTE:
"This ain’t a little boy’s game; this is for the big boys”
LAST NIGHT:
"Rupert caught more fish with a stick than I did with a 3 million dollar boat"

Well it is starting to become apparent that Tom, while liking Rupert, has issues as to who the REAL big boy here is. Again, Tom is NOT stupid, he just pretends to be Will it come down to which big boy reigns? Probably yes. "Rupert beat me again"(Foreshadow?) Tom so far is handling his strategy well. He, like last time, is the SAME way and it worked great last time BUT only up until the last quarter

Rob M.
INITIAL QUOTE
"I’m the brains behind this operation, so we’re gonna have to make it work somehow"
LAST NIGHT
(Said by others about being trouble)
We see a lot of charisma from Rob which we saw before. We see a lot of confidence/cockiness which again we have seen before. We saw a lot of lying from Rob which we have seen before. Rob ironically ended up getting into trouble when the merger happened in S4 with his games. We shall see if history is destined to repeat itself; this time at least he IS the Rotu 4 (and then some) as opposed to trying to break it down but I fear, again, somehow, someway his arrogance regarding his own talent may get the best of him OR on the flipside, the tough talking, cocky kid from Boston gets screwed because he allowed himself to let his guard down.........

Rupert Hopefully I can do better this time.”
Well, Rupert didn't learn much in the short period of time from PI. And because we are seeing a not so HEROIC Rupert this time around, we know they are not capitalizing (as much) on his popularity but more of Rupert as a person. Rupert is doing what his human nature dictates: trying really hard to compensate for his insecurities and thinking he can get ahead based solely on that. Again, his need for acceptance will override smart playing and he may get blindsided once again.

Jerri There isn't a moment of any day that I don't question why I am out here

I still question her motives as the above quote states. I think Jerri was more hellbent on revenge than anything else (Her statement her goal was to get Colby, well that's done) The fire in her eyes of getting her just rewards was the most spark I've seen from her. Again, human nature dictates and we questioned why she got such low brow editing prior. Surely the Jerri from the beginning was just lying in wait until our beloved S2 Jerri starts showing her skin more. Now we see the emergence (Per Jerri: "Bring it on") I wonder if that is now BECAUSE we will see her downfall come?

Shii Ann
INITIAL QUOTE "It's as it they couldn't hear us"
LAST NIGHT: "You're underestimating my powers. Perhaps you should spend time analyzing your own" AND "I'm stuck here with a bunch of power players" (you said it SA)

Rowr, SA, well I guess you had your payoff, Colby, who DARED to insult your style of game play (but acknowledging it could get her far) lasted longer than the Colbyesque game play. I still feel fairly secure that SA is not long to win this time of game but be utilized in the game. She herself admits she is amongst power players and while some may crash and burn before her she is NOT meant to outlast all of them.

Amber/Jenna L.
I will give Jenna a piece of her quote from last night
".......something good is coming" (Jenna we shall see)

For this episode, I'm combining them mainly because we mostly saw from them just a real happiness and positive attitude. One thing that DID stick with me was the two of them at the end of the RC/IC challenge where they fell over each other. Obviously if you don't subscribe to how MD edits his show, it means nothing. I just raised an eyebrow on that shot as to whether one of them causes stumbling and/or tripping up of each other at some point

Some things that struck me (some already stated)

Ethan's talk of either being the hero or the goat (Ethan you already had your shot at the hero edit)

Jenna/Rupert not partaking of the toast. (not QUITE Chaperas)

Lots of talk about them thinking about the merge (foreshadowing)

Both Colby and Ethan mentioning Rob specifically (Rob is indeed their cancer. Will Ethan be directly involved with Rob)

Jiffy’s talk about the prevailing wisdom of Mogo, i.e. voting out those who are the most threatening as individuals (with a interesting, we'll see if it plays out for you) (Ouch, foreshadowing?)