It seems that Aruba is wasting a lot of time watching the NHL playoffs so I'll get this started.

You’re Spilling the Beans

Previously on Survivor, Devens and David weren’t seeing eye to eye.
Facing Tribal Council, War Dog tried to get Kama to turn on each other...and it worked.
At Tribal Council, Ron and Julie were left in the dark when Eric was voted out and he chose to go to the Edge of Extinction.

Now that we’re not sure we’ll be getting many of these summaries let’s make the most of it. What is apparent is that Julia and Gavin’s role in voting out Eric didn’t really matter, it was all about War Dog. The only four other players that Jeff mentioned were Devens, David, Julia and Ron but the intent of those comments was probably to set up this evening’s fireworks.

Vata Night 22

War Dog had the first interview: “Tribal Council was fun; the War Dog controlled the vote and now I know the Kama people are fractured. I mean, Ron and Julie didn’t have any idea it was coming; their reaction was gold. So now, myself, Lauren and Kelley may have a chance to crack this game open.”

Even if the use of the third person in talking about himself is in poor taste, we must admit that War Dog is quite lucid in his assessment. He isn’t overly confident; he knows it’s still undecided but he now has a chance to do something.

Ron’s interview: That Tribal Council was a disaster. Julie and I were left out of the vote and so I’m kind of gutted. I spend a lot of time making Kama strong; we had the numbers. I’m sure people are going to look at this and say: “How stupid were they? All they had to do was vote out all the Lesu member” but we haven’t done it. All the power that I thought I had, now I realize that I have absolutely none. I’m on the bottom and I’m probably going to be voted out next.”

After forcing the original Manu to go to 4 Tribal Council four times in a row, the 4 of the 5 last votes have sent a Kama member to the Edge of extinction. As it will stand at the start of the next cycle, there will be 5 original Manu and 5 original Kama left in the game...And Kama never lost a single tribal immunity challenge!

Gavin’s interview: “I pulled out a huge move there: Eric was my closest ally in this game but he was kind of keeping me behind the curtains. I don’t want to go to the Final Three with a blank résumé so I stepped up and decided to be the first one to throw the punch. I made it apparent that I have this new alliance and I told them that I’m with you guys now. This proves that I’m ready to take this six (he was including War Dog, Lauren, Kelley, Julia and Victoria), a new alliance, to the end.”

David’s confessional: “Tribal Council went exactly the way I wanted it to go except for the fact that Rick and I voted differently because he wasn’t willing to see my side of it; the right side of it. Even if I wanted to split with Rick, I couldn’t because we have to figure out who gets custody of our “kid”; this little nugget of an immunity idol that is so very powerful but not as long as it remains in half. So, the relationship needs to work between us because that idol is a tool we are going to need to avoid one of us going home and then we could maybe shake things up and take control of this game.”

It’s interesting to read this interview in light of the fact that they did work things out, they did put the idol back in one piece, they even played it but it was all a waste, David receiving only 1 of eleven votes. In other words, David accomplished his entire plan but he isn’t closer to controlling this game than he was at this moment.

Edge of Extinction Day 23

We had a long segment where Eric weighed the possibility of quitting. That was contrasted with Joe and Aubry’s resolve to stay in the game. Then Chris brought back a bounty of fish to nourish everyone and Eric came to the conclusion that he’d want to use this hurdle to give his kids a lesson in perseverance.

Vata Day 23

We saw sharks hunting for small fish.

Consider this: We had just seen Chris coming out of the water with a nice bounty, now we see sharks hunting and, during Tribal Council, we will hear David talking about sharks eating minnows so let me ask you if there is a correlation between these three events? If there is then it would be telling us that Chris is the shark that will eat all these minnows before all is said and done.

Rick’s interview: “Everything is up in the air after Eric gets voted out. I was right that there were huge cracks in Kama; I just didn’t expect them last night. I’m going to concentrate on Ron and Julie because I showed them that I was loyal, I voted with them.”

Julie’s interview: “I was really upset that I wasn’t included on the vote for Eric last night. It made me question what to do and what the future of my game is going to look like. There’s no one watching out for me here and oh! my god! It’s like it’s been 23 days and I’m counting the days until I see my family again because it’s this feeling of no support. Last night’s blindside on Eric that I wasn’t a part of, just added to it. I try to remember why I signed up for this and it was to push myself and it was to prove myself but I feel like what am I even doing out here? And where do I go from here?”

Julie told Rick, David and Ron that she didn’t want to make this about her but then why did the editors make it so much about her in this episode?

Julia’s interview: “David is very sneaky and strategic but there’s this trio of Lesu players in War Dog, Kelley and Lauren and moving forward together with them; that is something that worries me. The next few votes, I’m really going to have to evaluate the social relationships in the game and whether I have the numbers because they have a trio that is just as strong together and don’t seem to be going anywhere and it’s all very concerning for me.”

This would be another episode where Kelley was going to be the main target yet, like Julia said, she and her closest allies don’t seem to be going anywhere. Will they make it to the end?

Day 23 The Immunity Challenge

It’s funny that there is no reward challenge this week after I had just complained about the waste of time they represent. Could they have heard me? Of course not but it’s strange that an episode that would include one of the longest Tribal Councils ever didn’t have a reward challenge. How could they have known that they would need all that extra time to show all the craziness that was going to unfold? If it wasn’t for the day count then I’d wonder if, like in Borneo, they filmed a reward but never bothered to put it on the air.

Gavin won immunity.

Gavin’s Interview: “I felt so accomplished beating David in this challenge because my plan was to get David sent home tonight and if David had won it would have been the worst possible scenario for me but now I can say that I’m the reason that David got sent home.

We’ve seen enough episodes to know that this post game interview rarely works out. It’s often the kiss-of-death interview, the editors taking extra pleasure in showing a cocky player about to get his comeuppance. It wasn’t going to be like that for Gavin but he’d be losing his second “closest ally” in two consecutive Tribal Councils!

Vata Day 23

Rick’s confessional: “For the first time since we’ve merged we get back from the immunity challenge and there’s no pretense: everyone scatters and David and I are left in camp with Julia who I wanted to talk to anyway to give her my pitch that there is a big target in Kelley, Lauren and War Dog. Then Gavin comes in and I’m able to give him the same pitch. Then Victoria... I’m trying to be patient; I’m trying to let them see that’s what best for all of us is to break up a power trio in the game. Meanwhile David and I will probably flip a coin to see who gets to use the immunity idol tonight if we feel things aren’t going our way.”

Lauren’s interview: “I actually wish that David would have won because Ron would be next on the chopping block. Ron is a strategical threat, he is kind of the leader of the Kama cult for a while and I don’t trust him.”

Julia’s gave us an interview after hearing Lauren’s pitch for Ron: “So Lesu is telling us that they are fine with the David vote however, they keep pushing other options like Ron. It makes me believe that they might be all working together on the low and they are trying to bamboozle us. So, I much prefer to change it up and reunite Kama strong and target a powerhouse in this game which is Kelley.”

I find it interesting that we only saw Lauren talking to Julia but the medical student doesn’t say “Lauren is telling me... She keeps....” but instead we heard: “Lesu is telling us... They keep...” Either Julia is simply projecting what all of Lesu is saying just by Lauren’s words or there have been other talks between the Lesu trio and members of the young Kama brigade. Knowing Kelley and War Dog, I believe they must have said something also but it’s only Lauren that was featured. We have to remember that it’s not only players that have to build their résumé to the future jury members but also the editors have to build the résumé of the eventual winner for the audience. Was that what they were doing by showing only Lauren’s pitch?

Victoria’s interview: “There’s the Lesu three package deal and then there’s Dave and Devens. We want to get rid of whichever package we consider most dangerous first. Three is bigger than two and it seems that we are all leaning towards Kelley. If we get rid of the Queen bee maybe the whole hive will fall apart.”

Kelley’s name has been brought up as the main target so many times this season that it’s become a theme all its own: “Kelley has to go” yet she’s still there. After seeing Parvati, Rob, Cochran and Tyson win in seasons with returning players while even bad ones such as Coach and Stephenie made it to the Finale, many viewers say that returning players have an unfair advantage over the new ones. How would the editors combat that negative reaction if Kelley is our winner? They’d insist on her precarious position in the game, show that she was clearly an underdog and that her win certainly wasn’t an easy ride and that’s exactly what we’ve seen in every episode up to now.

Julie’s interview: ”The Kama group, obviously, want to make Ron and I feel extremely comfortable but I don’t know if what they are pitching me is really true. I don’t know who I can trust. That’s what I can’t stand about this game. How does the paranoia ever go away? I don’t have anything to lose right now because I am already at such a low and I got to somehow pull myself together fast. It’s happening soon and I need to make a move.”

Gavin’s confessional: “Everybody wants to blindside Kelley but that is not what I wanted because I’ve gotten closer to Kelley but they shut it down and I was pissed. I thought I had a vote in what we said but it turned into a dictatorship.”
Having established their plan, the group gathered in silence around the camp fire.

Silence is never a good thing when a vote is pending as a couple of veterans were about to tell us:

David’s interview: “Moving forward, I’m just trying to establish trust with the remaining Kama people but I’ve developed over my time a Survivor “spidey” sense and now we find ourselves sitting at a dinner table and no one is saying a word. And if no one is saying a word it’s because they are probably talking about you and thinking about you and voting you home tonight. There is no question that we are playing the idol tonight; the only question is on who?”

David and Rick agreed that David was the target.

The music became very somber letting us hear only heavy chords as Kelley observed the group.

Kelley’s interview: “The Kama people all day, they have been fine with me and then Julia just going <yeah!: thumbs up; big smile! “We got the plan!”> Ah! OK? And then Aurora is just sleeping and won’t talk to me and Victoria is just like scrapping the pot, not looking at me, not saying a word. Gavin comes in camp and he has his head down; won’t look at me. I’m having flashbacks of Cambodia like y’all have some plan in motion and you’re trying to make me feel OK. Y’all making me crazy (The episode’s Title Quote); there’s a good chance I’m getting some votes. My gut is telling me that I may want to play my idol and trusting your gut in this game is huge because even the people that you think you can trust; you can’t always trust. And right now, I’m trusting people acting very strange.”

This segment proves without a doubt that returning players have a better understanding of the game as both David and Kelley saw through the Kama’s pretense but only Kelley will emerge from Tribal Council with an idol so we can say that her feminine intuition was stronger than David’s “spidey” sense.

Tribal Council

The clock told us that the players were getting there early so we had to expect a lot of developments before this vote. There was a time where the players were under strict orders from Mark Burnett to stay silent until the host asked you a question. Now that the host is in charge the protocol is much less rigid and we were about to witness a free-for-all.

Jeff started the evening on the subject of trust; how you can’t trust anyone but that you have to trust some people making it possible to blindside people.
Julie said that being on the wrong side of a blindside fells bad.
Aurora said that you can’t let everyone in on blindsiding someone or else it won’t happen.
War Dog understood this to mean that last week they used a group of people to take Eric out and that they could be blindsiding that group this time. War Dog wondered if he was a passenger in their plan or in our plan.
Kelley said that the vibe in camp suggested that the Kama people had gotten back together.
David said he saw a bunch of minnows in the ocean that were eaten by a shark passing by. He felt that one of the Lesu people was the minnow.
Devens, who wasn't sure if he was the minnow, the shark or the poop in David’s story, said that Gavin, Aurora and Julia and Victoria were the hot dates of the day. They had promised to get back to him with an answer but intentionally let the clock run out.
Gavin said that plans change.
Julie said she felt at an all-time low. She started crying.
When Julie said that the plan she’d been told was probably not the plan that was going to be executed, Kelley turned to Julia, quietly asking if they were good. Julie assured Kelley that they were.
When Julia said that to Jeff, Devens practically jumped out of his seat saying Julia had just given the game away: They were going with the Lesu Three.
Aurora said the Lesu was playing the game, one side saying they’ll vote against the other while that other side said the same. For her, Lesu was playing Kama.
War Dog got really confused when Aurora added that there were other things in the ocean besides minnows and sharks.
That’s when Julia turned to Aurora whispering: “You’re spilling the beans”.

For me, that was the theme of this episode but the beans were spilt well before Aurora spoke and by Julia herself!

Seeing how Gavin, Aurora, Victoria and Julia were strongly working together, Devens suggested that the 5 Lesu players team up with the two left out Kama players to take control.
That really got to Julia who countered that Lesu was supposed to be so dysfunctional they’d never work together.
Devens said it wasn’t his plan but Aurora’s! After Julia called him a simple passenger, Devens said that his GPS was working so he squarely turned to his left where sat the other six.
War Dog was first to start the whispering, telling Ron and Julie that he’d work with them. Julie agreed that Rick’s proposal was sounding better and better.
While a smiling David answered Jeff’s question, War Dog leaned over two more times to get into Ron’s ear, saying: “If I go Aurora, they’ll go Aurora. It’s up to you two.”
When Jeff said he wasn’t going to ask any more questions but was going to watch instead, the whole group got involved.
Kelley stood up and whispered in Aurora’s ear. David tapped Kelley on the shoulder as soon as she got back to her stump but Ron called him and Devens over. While walking over to Ron, Devens whispered in Kelley’s ear: “A truce can get both of us a long way.” War Dog informed Kelley that they were talking about voting out Aurora.
Kelley then turned back to Gavin, Julia and Aurora to see if their plan was the real plan, adding: “I’m not trying to turn on you guys.”

That left Kelley out of the main conversation that was happening at the other end of the room but I think she did it on purpose for a few reasons: First, it prevented those three of joining the conversation, it also prevented anyone to come to them and talk behind her back and, maybe most importantly, it showed that she was more sympathetic to their cause than Devens and the rest. That is a thing that could earn jury votes now that we now that side is likely going to be sitting on the wrong side of the room by the time of the Final Tribal Council. However, it made Devens think they wouldn’t have Kelley on their side but, just in time Lauren brought her back into the fold.

Julia said that she wanted to go for Julia, prompting Ron to tell Julia that her name was being mentioned. When the medical student approached the group of seven, Julie freaked, saying that she was out.
On the other side, David asked Kelley about the plan and she honestly said that it was him. When Julia told Julie that she was throwing away Kama’s control of the game, Julie raced over to Lesu saying that she was jumping ship and sat on David’s lap.
That’s when we had a rare commercial break in the middle of Tribal Council.

It was time to vote

When asked if anyone wanted to play an idol, David gave his half back to Rick who walked over to Jeff, handing the rebuilt idol to our host and saying he was playing it for David.

Lauren and Kelley kept their idols.

Aurora voted for David
Julia voted for Kelley
Everybody else voted for Julia.
When Julia stood, Rick, David and Kelley told each other that they would talk about this. War Dog promised he’d talk to Ron and Julie and then turned to Rick, giving him credit for the vote, Kelley looked around in disbelief and then we had a shot of Julia’s torch emitting its last puff of smoke and the images of Ron and Julie juxtaposed to it before fading to black.
Was that image telling us that their torches are about to get snuffed also?

The Story

In the first three seasons of Survivor we had alliances dominating the game play and then, starting with Marquesas we started seeing shifts in alliances that eventually led to the formation of voting blocs. Now it seems that a new phenomenon is appearing; the Voting Coalitions. And these coalitions seem to be as stable as they are in the Italian Parliament! Now everyone is promising to talk to each other but the more talk the more deception can surface. The players that have been honest about their votes and have shown to be calm under pressure will have an advantage.

While this season started slowly, it certainly has picked up lately and all the players that we considered as practically invisible have started to shine. In fact, I'd say that the viewers have a good idea of everyone left, something that hasn't been the case in every season. Another thing that is emerging is that all but one episode title has come from a quote from a returning player. That tells me its their story and that we are likely seeing one of them as our new Sole Survivor.

The Characters

Aurora: It was her rookie mistake that ignited the Tribal Council fireworks and they left her completely alone and out of the loop. Unless her extra vote somehow multiplies by 6 then she doesn’t stand a chance. Of course, she’ll be safe for a while because eliminating her won’t be a problem.

Julia While she didn’t hesitate choosing to stay in the game, I would be very surprised to see her succeed. It was her desire to flip on the Lesu trio that ignited the push against her. She revealed that she was a strategic threat and she was gaining a lot of control in the game. That type of control demands a ton of implication because you have to constantly reassure your allies that “the plan” includes them even when it doesn’t. Her body language gave indications that she was lying and her inaction proved fatal.

Julie: She is one of the few players that has been honest about her vote but she is crumbling under pressure. I have a hard time understanding the investment in her character. Is it to show how hard her road to the end will be or is it to simply show the difficulties of the game. She cannot handle her paranoia, even wishes it wasn’t part of the game but we know that paranoia is useful in this game. It was paranoia that drove Sandra to go by the strategy of anyone but me. It was paranoia that drove Hantz to find all those idols. It was paranoia that got Tony to eliminate his allies before they even thought of turning on him. So I see Julie falling victim to the game’s difficulties instead of overcoming them.

Gavin: He is trying hard to be in control of the game but it has resulted in his two closest allies going to the Island of Extinction in succession. He was identifies as being part of Kama’s group of youngsters so his vote against Julia showed that he is nothing but a turncoat. He shouldn’t be trusted moving forward but many other players have the same problem so he could survive just because there can only be one player eliminated at a time!

Victoria: Like Gavin, she switched sides faster than you can say “traitor” and while she told us she’d betray anyone and everyone, it shouldn’t have been done out of necessity but by design. She was part of the players that couldn’t hide their intentions so she’ll have a problem getting information from the others.

Aubry: She certainly enjoyed Tribal Council but there was nothing in her story to suggest that she’ll be sitting anywhere else but on the jury bench when the time comes.

Chris: His ability to catch fish and to nourish the members of the jury should be nicely rewarded were he to sit in the Final Three but will he get there? It’s unlikely.

David: What should we make of David’s ability to read the situation correctly? It showed his skills in the game but, at the same time, he wasted his idol. It’s odd that his best moves come when he works with Kelley when he spends most of his time plotting to eliminate her. How will that saga end?

Lauren: She wasn’t a factor during Tribal Council, her only action was to bring Kelley back into the fold when the plan was gelling. That’s not a good thing so even if we think that the editors were building her case by showing her interacting with the young members of Kama, it seems that the more accurate interpretation of that scene was that she made Julia nervous causing the collapse of an alliance that could have dominated the game. I do not see sufficient hints to keep Lauren in the group of contenders.

Devens: It was his desire to act as a pilot that turned the vote around and War Dog gave him credit for it. Next week’s recap should certainly mention his contribution to this crazy Tribal Council. Is it enough to put him back in contention? His role is certainly more important than it’s ever been and he’s one of only two new players to match the returning players. We’ll keep an eye on his story.

The Contenders

Joe: Unless a shark attacks Joe, he will always have to be considered a contender but his confessionals on the Island of Extinction aren’t very substantial.

War Dog: This was another episode in which he played a key role in determining the vote without becoming a target himself. That shows his mastery in the game but, like he said, we have he’s either the passenger in their plan or in his. To win, War Dog will have to be seen as a pilot and I don’t think he’s there yet. It would be easy to present his winning story if Jeff were to say: “The winner of Survivor: The Edge of Extinction - War Dog” but will that be the name Jeff announces? I had that impression but a new winning story is emerging.

Kelley: Often, a player’s name emerges as a possible target just to create suspense during an episode but targeting Kelley is one of the recurring themes of the season. We’ve become accustomed to returning players dancing circles around their new rivals so showing the fragility of her position is vital in order to present a worthy winner. Not only has Kelley survived every attempt to vote her out but she hasn’t even needed to use her idol in the process. Seeing Rick waste his idol on David gave us the impression that Kelley is really a master when it comes to playing an idol. Of course, Lauren also kept hers but, as viewers, we know that her name was never really in consideration. If Kelley plays her idol in what Jeff likes to call an epic fashion then she will have all the credentials to be this season’s Sole Survivor.