This is way early in the process, but here is the theory.

Let's assume there is a merge next week first of all. We don't have any challenge photos in the previews which is always a hint that we are switching to indivdual immunities. Secondly, we have ambassadors which means merge.

Of course there is alwasy the possibilty of fake merge, but that was probably the dumbest thing Burnett ever did and I doubt he'll be that stupid again.

So, we have a merge. We also don't have Colby. So, who is the biggest physical threat on MogoMogo and therefore the likely boot....Ethan of course.

So, Ethan goes into the merge knowing he has the target on his back. He also knows that he already carries the biggest target as the lone former winner remaining. Plus, he now knows that he has no alliance and even good pal Lex isn't gonna save him this time around.

Now, to top it off he has to deal with Rob and his status as top dog in the dominant alliance. Now, lets assume that Rob starts his "outing" of Ethan this episode....and what if the teasing gets so bad that Ethan, already dealing with the pressure of being next to go anyway and now having to deal with a hostile living environment, says the heck with it, has his little hissy fit about how "people aren't playing with class" and "there's no chance as a former winner" and "you think certain people are your friends" and "blah blah blah"

...and then rather than dealing with it any longer he goes and throws in his torch.

...or, more likely, he just gets voted off in a regular pagong vote with no drama...but where's the fun in that?