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""Guilty." "Not Guilty.""
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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
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05-06-15, 01:29 PM (EST)
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""Guilty." "Not Guilty.""
"Probable."

https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/investigative-and-expert-reports-re-footballs-used-during-afc-championsh.pdf

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty." kingfish 05-06-15 1
   RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty." Estee 05-06-15 2
       RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty." kingfish 05-06-15 3
 Pre-appeal punishment announced. Estee 05-11-15 4
   RE: Pre-appeal punishment announced... kingfish 05-12-15 5
 RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty." AyaK 05-15-15 6
   From "probable" to "ridiculously fa... AyaK 06-18-15 7
       RE: From "probable" to "ridiculousl... kingfish 06-19-15 8
           RE: From "probable" to "ridiculousl... AyaK 06-19-15 9
               RE: From "probable" to "ridiculousl... kingfish 06-20-15 10
                   RE: From "probable" to "ridiculousl... AyaK 06-23-15 11
                       Is this the end of Goodell? kingfish 08-31-15 12
                           The betting pool has opened. kingfish 09-04-15 13

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kingfish 18519 desperate attention whore postings
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05-06-15, 03:23 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty.""
I'm sure Max is writing in to demand a forfeiture of the AFC championship game.

I'm on board.

I'd be all for a second Super Bowl too.

Outside of Boston, no one would object to sitting Brady out for a season either (Sorry Ayak).

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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
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05-06-15, 04:36 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty.""
I've been reading the report. The evidence is:

A. Damning.
B. Being dismissed by every Patriots fan calling in to a sports talk station. Because the report was written by haters who faked everything within.

Again.

Also, Kraft has rejected the entire report. While very carefully not mentioning any of the evidence within. Because he can. He's not going to fight this completely unfair verdict which was backed by evidence he won't allow to exist, possibly because he knows there won't be any punishment from Buddy Roger. But he still rejects it!

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kingfish 18519 desperate attention whore postings
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05-06-15, 04:51 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty.""
He still says the hard science refutes the report's findings, you know, that "hard science" that allows one team's balls to retain pressure while deflating the other team's balls.

(And there have to be a raft of "deflated balls" jokes we've forgotten to include).

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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
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05-11-15, 06:17 PM (EST)
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4. "Pre-appeal punishment announced."
Team fined $1,000,000.
Draft picks lost: 1st round in 2016, 4th round in 2017.
Brady: Suspended four games without pay, starting with Game #1 of the 2016 season. May engage in all camp and preseason activities.
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kingfish 18519 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-15, 08:50 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Pre-appeal punishment announced."
And after the appeal, and Goodell reduces Brady's penalties to a butt slap (a hard one, a very stern slap as he will emphasize, sharp enough to make sure he learns his lesson, but not to hard so as to be misunderstood as either flirtation - Brady is a very pretty boy - or undue corporeal punishment. Goodell's job is very demanding, brave man, he walks a fine line) and the Patriots are given their mill back with interest and apologies for the unfortunate misunderstanding and a plea from a kneeling position to not sue), everything will return to normal.
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AyaK 10382 desperate attention whore postings
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05-15-15, 07:37 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: "Guilty." "Not Guilty.""
LAST EDITED ON 05-15-15 AT 07:43 PM (EST)

I've stayed out of this until now. Here's the issue: if Walt Anderson (the game official, who measured the ball inflation before the game) was right about which gauge he used (Ted Wells insists he wasn't), then the Patriots' balls were only underinflated by the impact of the cold weather.

Wells' report uses the measurements taken with the higher reading gauge to claim that the Colts' balls weren't underinflated but uses the measurements taken with the lower-reading gauge to claim that the Patriots' balls were underinflated. His explanation is, basically, that he didn't believe game official Walt Anderson, who said that he believed that he used the higher-reading gauge (which had a particular trademark on it) but couldn't rule out the possibility that he might have used the lower-reading gauge. Wells then concludes that he used the lower-reading gauge.

That speaks to serious bias. And it can't be argued away, no matter how much people like Bill Polian hate the Patriots or would like to insist that they are cheats.

The fact is, Ted Wells is a featherbedding hack, which he proved in the Richie Incognito case (where he concluded, ridiculously, that Jonathan Martin was pushed out of football by the bully Incognito). The fact was, people hated Incognito as a dirty player, and they were happy to be rid of him. However, the "facts" in the report were silly, and Wells often drew questionable conclusions from them.

There was a lot of holier-than-thou gnashing and rending of clothes when Rex Ryan and the Bills signed Incognito this year. But my only regret is that Incognito is back in the AFL East. He got railroaded by a poor but biased report.

And Jonathan Martin, the poor bullied offensive linemen who, with the Wells Report behind him, was able to demand a trade to his preferred playing location of San Francisco? He bombed out there too and was released this off-season. Carolina picked him up, but his days in the NFL are numbered (probably in double-digits), no matter how much Ted Wells insists that his only problem was that big mean bully Incognito.

Like Incognito, the Patriots don't have many friends. And Ted Wells produced the report that Roger Goodell, that living embodiment of the Peter Principle, wanted. But it's full of holes, no hole bigger than the gauge question, which, if Walt Anderson is to be believed, means that the Patriots didn't deflate the balls at all.

Incompetence rules at the NFL. And it pays well. Look at how much Goodell makes. Look at how much the league paid Wells. Multi-millions for performance levels that would have gotten a backup lineman released in a day.

So what about the texts? Well, first off, the explanation that the one guy called himself the Deflator because he was losing weight seems to be nuts, and the Patriots didn't do themselves any favors by including it in their response. However, it's clear that Brady was angry at the ball guys when they got the balls at 13 pounds or higher, and the ball guys didn't really like him for that. Brady wanted the balls at 12.5, which is where Walt Anderson said they were when he measured them pre-game.

Does anyone except for a true hater believe that Tom Brady trusted these clowns (as proven by their Vladimir-and-Estragon texts) enough to ask them to cheat for him? Except for the incompetent Mr. Wells, that idea seems ridiculous on its face.

Wells' report makes it obvious why the Patriots didn't trust him. They were right not to do so. And they are also right not to trust King Incompetent Roger Goodell.

However, in one sense, the Patriots deserve to have to go through this. People have long said that it was Bob Kraft that was responsible for Roger Goodell being hired. Kraft should have to bear the brunt of his incompetence.

One last point: this became the huge deal that it did because of the leak from the NFL to ESPN that 14 of the 15 Patriots balls were 2 pounds underweight, at 10.5 pounds. That wasn't even remotely true -- and yet it was clearly spread by the NFL. That's why the Patriots see a league conspiracy against them -- and I think they are right to do so, because the league (which had the actual ball measurements) could have said immediately that that wasn't true, but instead said nothing, and I wouldn't be surprised if 75% of Americans still believed that those reports were true.

Goodell really has no way out except to try to quash any independent review of the facts, which is why he wants to keep control of the appeal. But he won't be able to, and it will be the beginning of the end for him. (Not because Bob Kraft turned against him -- after all, Kraft is just one of 32, and there are a lot of team officals that dislike the Patriots too -- but because he and his overpaid lackey Wells are finally going to get exposed as incompetents).

The funny thing about this is that I was perfectly willing to believe that the Patriots had cheated (and deserved to be penalized) until I saw the air gauge readings. I don't think that the Patriots are choirboys, any more than I think Richie Incognito is a choirboy. And seeing a report from a partner at Paul Weiss that said they had cheated would have been enough to convince me, except that the partner was Ted Wells, and I'd already seen him mess up the Richie Incognito case. So I had to look at the inflation records, which strongly indicate that Wells and Goodell blundered again.

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AyaK 10382 desperate attention whore postings
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06-18-15, 08:25 PM (EST)
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7. "From "probable" to "ridiculously false""
http://tinyurl.com/q7wk4jz (WaPo commentary)

The link to the AEI report, which shreds the Wells Report:
https://www.aei.org/publication/deflating-deflategate/

Of course, everyone except strong partisans (both pro- and anti-Patriots), NFL moron-in-chief Roger Goodell, and NFL lackey ESPN already knew that.

As the WaPo puts it:

The NFL paid millions for a fundamentally flawed report by lawyer Ted Wells that made Brady and the Patriots out to be slam-dunk guilty, based on more than 100 pages of mathematical analysis of ball pressurization . . . that turns out to be erroneous. The AEI’s report totally rejects the finding that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC championship game had a significant drop in air pressure compared with those used by the Colts. But the truly damning sentence is this one, buried in its erudite phrasings and equations: “The Wells report’s statistical analysis cannot be replicated by performing the analysis as described in the report,” the AEI concludes.

* * * * *

Normally, these “special counsel” reports are airtight documents. They’re meant to give sports leagues an unshakable legal basis for discipline and protect league integrity. The report by Major League Baseball on Pete Rose’s gambling was an unassailable document of 215 pages that included 313 witnesses and seven volumes of exhibits, including bank and phone records and transcripts of interviews that made it impossible for Rose to fight his banishment. But lately the NFL has begun turning these special counsel investigations into manipulated campaigns calculated to enhance the commissioner’s profile and powers.

And they seem to be written to fit predetermined conclusions.

Twice now Goodell has ginned up false scandals that seriously and unfairly targeted individual players and damaged franchises on what turned out to be bogus or flawed evidence. Forget his bungled handling of Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice — at least those guys actually did something wrong. In the DeflateGate and BountyGate affairs, Goodell hammered people who appear to have done nothing.

As I said before, in one sense it's fitting that the idiot Goodell goes after the Patriots, because the Patriots' owner Robert Kraft was largely responsible for the NFL hiring this idiot in the first place. But in another sense, it's just more evidence that the NFL is fundamentally dishonest.

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kingfish 18519 desperate attention whore postings
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06-19-15, 09:08 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: From "probable" to "ridiculously false""
So now I'm really confused.

The pressure readings of the Patriot's ball's weren't too low after all, after having been checked at the beginning of the game and approved? And if they are found to be too low during the game, they don't have to be pumped back up?

And they weren't actually different from similar readings made of the pressure in the Colt's footballs which reportedly didn't lose pressure by the half? This was just fabricated (by someone) and swallowed whole by Wells? And apparently by lots of reporters?

Or is the problem that they either used different pressure gages, or did they use uncalibrated gages?

100 pages of analysis? Really? It's had to understand why anything more complicated that the fundamental Ideal Gas relationship would be needed, pressures in that range can be calculated very accurately, and bench tested for verification. Heck, for that matter, the conditions (pressures, temperatures) can be easily replicated, no calc's needed at all. Instead of bemoaning the quality of education that athletes receive, we should be looking at how NFL management got their degrees.

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AyaK 10382 desperate attention whore postings
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06-19-15, 08:09 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: From "probable" to "ridiculously false""
LAST EDITED ON 06-19-15 AT 08:11 PM (EST)

The AEI report is only 10 pages, with 6 pages of appendices (although it cites back to the examples given in the Wells report, which included enough data to replicate the experiments that Wells and his associates did). So you could read through that if you want some context. But, in short:

The NFL rules specify pressure readings at the start of the game. Apparently it never occurred to anyone at the NFL that the Ideal Gas Law means that the pressure will go down if you're playing in freezing weather.

Instead of bemoaning the quality of education that athletes receive, we should be looking at how NFL management got their degrees.

Apparently without taking any science classes!

But the problem with just taking measurements and applying the Ideal Gas Law is that the pressure gauges were not only uncalibrated (as far as we can tell, the NFL has never had a gauge "quality control" program to calibrate gauges and has always just assumed that the gauges are accurate when used) but also inconsistent (one read significantly lower than the other). In addition, the temperature at time of measurement was never taken into account.

With regard to the gauge issue, Ted Wells chose to disbelieve the testimony of the game official as to which gauge he used to measure the balls at the start of the game and to guess at which gauges were used. The AEI report chooses instead to consider all four possible gauge combinations, which seems like the better way to do it instead of an after-the-fact guess that rejects the testimony of the person who actually conducted the measurements (as I discussed in my first post).

The AEI finding was that the Patriots' ball readings deflated by the amounts predicted by the Ideal Gas Law. The Colts' ball readings did not. Why?

The AEI report goes to the official statements (included in the Wells Report) and notes that the Patriots' balls were measured as soon as they were brought in at halftime. The Colts' balls were measured at the very end of halftime, after sitting inside in a warm area for over 10 minutes. Thus, the Colts' balls warmed up, changing their deflation readings from those of the Patriots' balls. But the Wells Report ignores that, typical of a scientific illiterate like Ted Wells.

As far as the media, I'll excuse their scientific illiteracy by remembering that a lot of people thought the Patriots had "cheated" in their game against the Colts by exploiting the ineligible player rule, which clearly deceived the Colts (although the Patriots weren't the first NFL team to do it; the Lions were, earlier last season). So they were certainly inclined to believe any report that the Patriots had found another way to "cheat". And, remember, the starting point in this discussion was the ESPN report, attributed to an unidentified member of the NFL staff, that 14 of the 15 Patriots' balls were underinflated by 2 pounds -- a blatantly false report, but one that had ESPN seriously reporting on movements to have the Patriots excluded from the Super Bowl. So, when Ted Wells issued a report that said that it was more probable than not that the Patriots had intentionally deflated their footballs before the Colts' game, why wouldn't the media buy into it hook, line, and sinker?

But, since the primary author of the report was Ted Wells, and since I think it's more probable than not that he's a moron/cretin/imbecile/choose your own term for a person of below-average intelligence, I decided that I needed to read the report before I bought into it. Reading the report only reinforced my conclusions about Wells . . . and the moron/cretin/imbecile/person of below-average intelligence who runs the NFL and had hired him.

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kingfish 18519 desperate attention whore postings
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06-20-15, 08:07 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: From "probable" to "ridiculously false""
Following the procedures used in this game for checking football pressures, every open air game ever played in arctic conditions would have had deflated footballs by half time. A dead certainty predicated on a basic law of physics.

When you think of all the great passing quarterbacks from all those northern teams...no wonder!

Goodell would have to be crazy or really stupid to allow the NFL to have to defend the report and his decisions in a Court of Law. And last I read Brady was willing to go that far, although I guess his first step is some sort of appeal to an NFL committee.

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AyaK 10382 desperate attention whore postings
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06-23-15, 11:38 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: From "probable" to "ridiculously false""
The fact that this story hasn't gone away just makes Roger Goodell's mismanagement of the NFL more obvious:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/in-deflate-gate-appeal--tom-brady-and-roger-goodell-are-locked-in-a-battle-for-reputations-that-likely-can-t-be-fully-recovered-033901829.html

One thing the whole "Deflategate" scandal proves is that most of the billionaires running NFL teams didn't make their money through superior intelligence or good hiring skills. If they were as smart as they portray themselves, or even as smart as, say, an average person, Goodell wouldn't be within a city block of the league offices.

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kingfish 18519 desperate attention whore postings
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08-31-15, 12:43 PM (EST)
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12. "Is this the end of Goodell?"
Goodell and Brady haven't agreed on a compromise within the time given, and Judge Berman will be forced to rule this week.

Reading between the lines of the judge's announcements in this case where he is urging that the sides settle out of court on a compromise, and hinting that he sees the Well's report as flawed and that Goodell's side has the weaker argument, one might guess that he will come down on Brady's side. And if he does disregard the Well's report as flawed, he very well could negate Brady's punishment altogether, IMO.

If Berman does negate Goodell's ruling, does this mean the end of Goodell's tenure as commissioner? His judgment has to be seen as highly flawed once again. After allowing this very weak case to be drawn-out as long as it has been and ignoring the lifeline offered by the judge when he might have settled, why would the owners keep him? Very possibly the refusal to settle came from the Brady camp, but it's obvious that Goodell allowed himself to be painted into a corner with this and his earlier reversal of the Ray Rice penalty, and this just dug his grave deeper (Yeah I know, mixed metaphors).

I can't imagine him not resigning or the owners not dumping him if the judge rules against him this week. Surely there is a less moronic choice that they could agree on instead. In fact, I would suppose that they have already had conversations in regard to his replacement.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/13550206/judge-announces-no-settlement-tom-brady-hearing-deflategate-expects-ruling-soon

.


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kingfish 18519 desperate attention whore postings
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09-04-15, 01:07 PM (EST)
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13. "The betting pool has opened."
Is or is he not about to become the ex-commissioner? Actually the question (in my mind) is not if but when.

I'll admit that initially I thought it was a slam dunk that Brady was guilty until I did the math on temps and air pressures. Math that apparently the Wells report failed to do.

I'm still skeptical of Brady's total noninvolvement claims, but it's obvious that the proof of his involvement is flimsy and based on a flawed investigation. Goodell is an idiot for imposing punishment based on that flawed report as well as not settling out of court, and he's responsible for the ensuing negative publicity for the NFL. Owners who are trying to watch their bottom lines don't like negative publicity. They also don't like losing ground to the Player's Union.

So, really, when is the next owner's meeting? I'm putting down that day plus the bare minimum required notice as his last.

.

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