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"2012 Baseball Hall Of Fame ballot."
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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-11, 02:18 PM (EST)
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"2012 Baseball Hall Of Fame ballot."
I'm copying the list from the BWAA website because it provides last year's voting percentages plus the number of years already spent on the ballot. (If there's no notation, it's that player's first time.)

Jeff Bagwell (242 (41.7%) 1)
Jeromy Burnitz
Vinny Castilla
Juan Gonzalez (30 (5.2%) 1)
Brian Jordan
Barry Larkin (361 (62.1%) 2)
Javy Lopez
Edgar Martinez (191 (32.9%) 2)
Don Mattingly (79 (13.6%) 11)
Fred McGriff (104 (17.9%) 2)
Mark McGwire (115 (19.8%) 5)
Jack Morris (311 (53.5%) 12)
Bill Mueller
Terry Mulholland
Dale Murphy (73 (12.6%) 13)
Phil Nevin
Rafael Palmeiro (64 (11.0%) 1)
Brad Radke
Tim Raines (218 (37.5%) 4)
Tim Salmon
Ruben Sierra
Lee Smith (263 (43.5%) 9)
Alan Trammell (141 (24.3%) 10)
Larry Walker (118 (20.3%) 1)
Bernie Williams
Tony Womack
Eric Young

Overall, this doesn't look like the strongest year. Most of the first-year candidates may wind up being on the ballot for just the one year -- I can't take Bernie Williams at 5% of seriously -- which means this is a good time for a few longer-term people to break through.

My tired-and-keeping-it-simple votes would be:

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Jack Morris
Tim Raines

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: 2012 Baseball Hall Of Fame ball... PepeLePew13 12-05-11 1
   The case for ... PepeLePew13 12-07-11 4
       RE: The case for ... AyaK 12-13-11 8
 Ron Santo Molaholic 12-05-11 2
 My votes AyaK 12-06-11 3
 RE: 2012 Baseball Hall Of Fame ball... aethelstan 12-08-11 5
 Old rules aethelstan 12-12-11 6
   RE: Old rules PepeLePew13 12-12-11 7
       Answering the steroid question. Estee 12-13-11 9
           RE: Answering the steroid question. aethelstan 12-13-11 10
               RE: Answering the steroid question. AyaK 12-15-11 13
           RE: Answering the steroid question. PepeLePew13 12-13-11 11
               RE: Answering the steroid question. Estee 12-13-11 12
 Congrats to... PepeLePew13 01-09-12 14
   RE: Congrats to... Estee 01-09-12 15
       *scratches head* Max Headroom 01-09-12 16
           RE: *scratches head* Estee 01-09-12 17
           RE: *scratches head* HobbsofMI 01-10-12 18
               RE: *scratches head* AyaK 01-10-12 19
                   RE: *scratches head* HobbsofMI 01-12-12 20
                       RE: *scratches head* AyaK 01-13-12 21

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-11, 05:49 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: 2012 Baseball Hall Of Fame ballot."
My ballot:

Jeff Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker
Tim Raines
Barry Larkin


I'm going back to the ol' argument that if Jim Rice (no, not the pot dealer on Survivor) is in, then Larry Walker has to be in as well. People say that the Coors Field factor helped him with his offensive numbers, but so did Fenway for Jim Rice. Let's look at their career road numbers, which is more neutral: Walker - .278/.370/.495 with 168 HR and .865 OPS, Rice - .277/.330/.459 with 176 HR and .789 OPS). This favours Walker.

In the end, Walker has a considerably higher career WAR (67.3 to 41.5), higher OPS+ (this is key as it factors in the players' eras and ballparks - Walker leads 140-128), 3 batting titles, 7 Gold Gloves, 230 stolen bases (Rice had 58) and finished with 1 more HR in 1300 fewer ABs than Rice.

So... if Rice is in, then you can't leave Walker out. Too bad injuries basically robbed Walker of the equivalent of 3-4 full seasons (he only had TWO seasons with 500+ ABs), or he'd be quite a bit higher in career numbers.

I'm not sold on Jack Morris as he had a high career ERA so he benefited from plenty of offensive support.

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-11, 08:56 PM (EST)
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4. "The case for ..."
...Edgar Martinez:

Why Edgar belongs in the HOF

Interestingly, Larry Walker is on some of the same lists as Edgar such as the .300/.400/.500 club.

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-11, 02:01 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: The case for ..."
The .300/.400/.500 was what convinced me. The only people on that list of 17 not in the HOF are Lefty O'Doul and the four recent retirees (E. Martinez, Walker, M. Ramirez and Thomas).
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Molaholic 8451 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-11, 09:15 PM (EST)
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2. "Ron Santo"
LAST EDITED ON 12-05-11 AT 09:17 PM (EST)

elected by the "Golden Era" Committee Cubs Legend. While this is an excellent selection, I must once again cry out in agony over the omission of Gil Hodges.

It will be some time before Hodges (and the other members of the "Golden Era" class) will be up again thanks to the new rotation format (next up is the "Pre-Integration" group - no name leaps to mind). After them the "Expansion Era" group gets a shot.

As for the potential class of 2012 -- I see only Bags as having a chance for election. Granted, leaping from 41% to 75% in one year is quite a feat. Given a vote, though, I would also include Lee Smith (but I'm certain to be in the minority).

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-11, 09:02 PM (EST)
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3. "My votes"
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-11 AT 09:03 PM (EST)

None of the new candidates are worth supporting. Bernie Williams? A joke.

Blyleven and Alomar got in and so come off my list from last year. I've previously stated the case for Raines, Walker and Bagwell. I can't vote for Larkin, whom I think will make it (and I'm OK with that), without voting for Trammell, who was at least as good and probably a little better (to my eye). And, to my surprise, I find myself giving Edgar Martinez a vote.

My votes:
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Larry Walker
Jeff Bagwell
Alan Trammell
Barry Larkin

Non-votes but considered:
Jack Morris
Lee Smith

Martinez is a harder call, because he (like David Ortiz) was a full-time DH. But his offensive numbers were so stellar. . . .

Morris is a more hittable Curt Schilling. I'd like to vote for him, but I'm not even sure I'm voting for Schilling. And Lee Smith . . . naah. I can safely say that I think his election would be a travesty and I'd never vote for him. I really didn't think of him as a better closer than Doug Jones, even though Smith threw rocket fast and Jones threw slow, slower and slowest.

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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12-08-11, 10:29 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: 2012 Baseball Hall Of Fame ballot."
My votes on first instinct are:

Bagwell, Larkin, McGriff, Raines, Walker

would be willing to consider: Martinez and Trammell.

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-11, 10:23 AM (EST)
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6. "Old rules"
This is pretty clearly the best chance many of those on the ballot will have for getting into the Hall given the potential for first-ballot all stars in upcoming years. Also, if they were still using the old recommendations for voting, a year like this one would produce iffy Hall of Famers like Phil Rizzuto, Harry Hooper and Robbit Maranville: until the late 1950s, voters were advised to cast votes for the maximum 10 candidates (source wikipedia but I'm sure I've seen it elsewhere).


Future ballots will include:

2013: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa
2014: Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Kenny Rogers, Frank Thomas
2015: Carlos Delgado, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz
2016: Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey, Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Andy Pettitte, Billy Wagner



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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-11, 01:13 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Old rules"
So, essentially, if the likes of Jack Morris, Alan Trammell and Lee Smith don't get in this year (forget it, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy - you're toast), they're not going to get in at all under the current 15-year rules since it'll be at least five years before the roster of candidates get back to "normal" levels.

That's a lot of sure-fire HOFers! Plus potentially controversial ballots with players such as Sosa, Bonds and Clemens (and in the near future, ARod and Manny).

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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-11, 07:20 AM (EST)
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9. "Answering the steroid question."
NO.

The known tainted are not getting in on their first year. Some of them may slowly work their way up the forgiveness percentage and one or two might eventually make it -- but in particular, I think the writers are going to make Jerks 1 and 1A buy a ticket. Clemens might need six years or more to get in, and I'm not sure Bonds is ever getting through -- not unless 75% of the voters turn out to have San Francisco addresses.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the Piazza issue, which should just break down to 'Dodger cap or Met?'

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-11, 10:45 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Answering the steroid question."
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-11 AT 11:15 AM (EST)

I doubt any known steroid users will get in at all but it will generate a lot of discussion. I can see some people saying 'Known steroid user A has these stats but player B's stat are much worse than player A. Does player B merit selection?' or will they relook at the non-steroid users and say that they would have been the stars and got more black ink credentials (awards) had the steroid users not been there.

In other words, will the candidacies of players like Vlad Guerrero, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, even Walker and Raines be helped or hindered by the fact that they played alongside known steroid users that wound up with better stats and more awards?

etf: 'wound up' not 'would up'

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-11, 02:34 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Answering the steroid question."
Clemens and Bonds are the most interesting of the tainted candidates, because the available evidence indicates that they had HoF-worthy careers prior to taking the needle . . . and then became lights-out fantastic on the needle.

Bonds, for example, was a true five-tool player before he became "Melonhead", with three MVPs. Clemens was the winningest pitcher in Red Sox history and had three Cy Young Awards. It was the FloJO Effect: average players become good, good players become great, and great players become immortals on 'roids. (FloJo won a silver medal at the 1984 Olympics in her pre-juice days and then set never-to-be-broken records once she started juicing.)

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-11, 11:01 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Answering the steroid question."

>Personally, I'm looking forward to the
>Piazza issue, which should just
>break down to 'Dodger cap or Met?'

You know, that's a really good point of discussion - Piazza is unquestionably getting into the HOF, the only question is whether he's a first ballot or second ballot.

I took a look at his numbers and here's a breakdown of the years he spent with the Dodgers compared with the years with the Mets:

NYM (8 yrs) - 972 GP, 3478/1028 .296/.373/.542, 532 runs, 220 HR, 655 RBI, 132 OPS+, 24.6 WAR
LAD (7 yrs) - 726 GP, 2707/896 .331/.394/.572, 443 runs, 177 HR, 563 RBI, 159 OPS+, 33.6 WAR

Better career with the Dodgers, but he spent the equivalent of a year-and-half longer with the Mets and went to the World Series with them. Tough call.

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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-11, 02:59 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Answering the steroid question."
I've previously said I'm okay with him going in as a Dodger, but I'd prefer him to be inducted as a Met because --

-- well --

-- Tom Seaver and Bob Murphy. We've got two.

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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01-09-12, 05:12 PM (EST)
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14. "Congrats to..."
Barry Larkin.

He was the only one who made the HOF from the eligible player list this time around, with Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell and Lee Smith the only other players reaching the 50% mark.

Player Votes Percent
Barry Larkin 495 86.4%
Jack Morris 382 66.6%
Jeff Bagwell 321 56.0%
Lee Smith 290 50.6%
Tim Raines 279 48.7%
Alan Trammell 211 36.8%
Edgar Martínez 209 36.5%
Fred McGriff 137 23.9%
Larry Walker 131 22.9%
Mark McGwire 112 19.5%
Don Mattingly 102 17.8%
Dale Murphy 83 14.5%
Rafael Palmeiro 72 12.6%
Bernie Williams 55 9.6%
Juan González 23 4.0%
Vinny Castilla 6 1.0%
Tim Salmon 5 0.9%
Bill Mueller 4 0.7%
Brad Radke 2 0.3%
Javy López 1 0.2%
Eric Young 1 0.2%
Jeromy Burnitz 0 0.0%
Brian Jordan 0 0.0%
Terry Mulholland 0 0.0%
Phil Nevin 0 0.0%
Rubén Sierra 0 0.0%
Tony Womack 0 0.0%

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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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01-09-12, 05:20 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Congrats to..."
Head.

Wall.

Repeat.

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Max Headroom 10028 desperate attention whore postings
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01-09-12, 07:55 PM (EST)
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16. "*scratches head*"
I don't get it. Don't you think Barry Larkin is HOF-worthy?
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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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01-09-12, 08:15 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: *scratches head*"
It's more towards 'So. Him and no one else.' And with the rookie crops coming in future years, I have a nasty suspicion that everyone else on the current list just peaked.

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HobbsofMI 15959 desperate attention whore postings
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01-10-12, 10:43 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: *scratches head*"
If Larkin is worthy why is Tram not?


sig Syren, bouncy by IceCat, bobble head by Tribephyl, and snoglobe by agman

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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01-10-12, 09:31 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: *scratches head*"
Don't ask me. I supported Trammell.
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HobbsofMI 15959 desperate attention whore postings
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01-12-12, 00:05 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: *scratches head*"
Off and on over the years. I think Fester convinced you a few years and others the field was week and you put in a vote for him.


sig Syren, bouncy by IceCat, bobble head by Tribephyl, and snoglobe by agman

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-12, 01:36 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: *scratches head*"
LAST EDITED ON 01-13-12 AT 06:35 PM (EST)

Yes, I originally voted for Trammell and then, after the debate with Fester, didn't vote for him for a few years. Before last year, the last time I voted for Trammell was 2006:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1370&forum=DCForumID82&archive=yes#21

But Larkin's (now-successful) candidacy convinced me that Trammell belongs.

You have to remember, I grew up listening to Tigers games on WJW with Ernie Harwell and Ray Lane or Paul Carey announcing, along with Indians games on WERE with Jimmy Dudley, Bob Neal and Herb Score and then WWWE with Joe Tait and Score announcing. The Indians stunk during that period, but the Tigers were often great, and Trammell, not Jack Morris, was the team's true star in the 1980s, before the Tigers headed down for years of Indians-like mediocrity. One of Trammell's problems is that he was still around when that stretch started.

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