Sweet RevengePreviously on Survivor, the majority had a plan of attack < Julie: “Aurora has got to go” >
...but War Dog wanted to shake up the game: <”why can’t we take Kelley out tonight?” > .
At Tribal, Council, War Dog left Lauren in the dark and betrayed his closest ally when he voted out Wentworth.
One thing to note is that Ron also left Julie in the dark but that wasn’t mentioned. Considering what was going to happen at the end of this cycle it could be an indication that Lauren’s story is more important to tell than Julie’s.
Vata Night 27
Quite appropriately, a snake greeted the viewers to camp just as the players were returning.
Lauren had the first interview of the evening: “Tribal Council suck. It’s really sad to lose Kelley, not just on a Survivor level she was someone who I really trusted but on a personal level she felt like my older sister. I’m so angry and so mad at War Dog. I actually feel like I’m out for blood. At the same time, I also want to take Rick out just because rick poses a threat to everyone but I don’t know who wants to work with me anymore. I think I can get others to rally behind me but it is this weird feeling of not knowing where people stand anymore.”
If the recap gave us an indication to keep our eyes on Lauren this interview drives the point even more strongly. Not seen as a threat despite her athleticism and her knowledge of the game, Lauren could easily make her way to the Final 4. Would that be enough to carry her to the end?
War Dog told Gavin he hadn’t been informed because he always goes where the numbers go.
Gavin’s reaction: “I trusted War Dog one hundred percent yesterday and going into Tribal Council, I felt really confident in my game but I was left out of the vote. Now, I know that bridge is burned; War dog is just barking out orders, War dog is talking to me like a dog. You can’t be barking out orders 24/7 and expect people to work with you. He’s next on my list; I want War Dog out now.”
Now that he has been eliminated, we can see that War Dog lacked one big quality to be an efficient leader on Survivor; he wasn’t charismatic at all. A true leader needs to have people who want to follow and they have to constantly cultivate those relationships, not discard them like this. Gavin expressed how the group felt about the Dog but he’ll be portrayed as someone who is still simply going with the numbers. Like he said himself; he was an easy vote.
Ron’s interview after hearing from Gavin: “I was working with War Dog to get out Kelley but then I’m thinking he’s a loose cannon, he says too much; he talked to Gavin like Gavin was 10 years old and it really hurt Gavin’s feelings. It’s perfect because I think it cut those two in half. Like now, I feel my game is going pretty good because I’ve got lots of different options and I’m trying to play both sides. The only thing I was worried about was Julie. She’s the one I need to mend fences with.” Julie was still with Ron who informed her about Aurora’s extra vote. Ron’s interview continued: “I told Julie about the extra vote because I need Julie to trust me so that she is totally loyal to me.”
Julie’s confessional: “Even though I was clearly left out of tonight’s vote, I don’t blame Ron at all. It was a good move. I have no hard feelings against Ron. He’s the only person in this game that I feel I can truly trust. I do think he has my back.”
While not as advanced as the case Trish demonstrated in Cagayan, Julie is showing signs of being affected by the Stockholm syndrome; Ron is keeping her under his thumb only because he can use her. Here, he can even try to keep her captive all the way to the end because, contrary to Trish, Julie has no chances to win a vote... unless she wakes up and gets rid of Ron.
Vata Day 28
Devens’ confessional: “At Tribal Council last night, Ron, myself and War Dog voted together to get rid of Kelley and no one was happier than me that Kelley Wentworth was heading to the Edge of Extinction! So Ron, War Dog and I need each other.” Rick presented his realization to the two other guys: They were the only players in the game. Devens continued: “War Dog has been my nemesis in this game but now we need each other going forward as a shield because as soon as one of us goes out, it’s going to be a feeding frenzy. I see the people who haven’t built much a résumé < Aurora, Julie, Gavin, Victoria shown when he was saying this> starting to build their résumé by getting rid of one threat after another. Aurora is definitely on the bottom; she’s an easy vote because she’s been named at every Tribal; everyone was going for Aurora. She’s a big competitor, she’s a challenge beast and you never know what she’s going to say at Tribal.”
What importance should we put on the editors’ choice not to include Lauren in the group of players that haven’t built much of a résumé? Could it mean that she’ll have a case to present to the jury when the time comes? With Devens having made a detour by the Edge of Extinction, Lauren is the last of the Manu-Lesu that has been in the game from the start and now she’s left with 5 original Kama so that in itself would make for a good case if she navigates her way to the end.
As for Devens’ realization will it prove prophetic? One of the three big threats has fallen so how far behind are the other two?
While agreeing on the surface with the other two guys, Ron told us differently in his confessional: “The game I am playing right now is; Ron is everyone’s ally. If I don’t work with you right now maybe next time. The road ahead of me is going to be difficult. I can join either alliances today; either the threats or the goats. So I have a tough decision to make. I love having power and control and it puts me in the middle again where I kind of make a decision.”
This time Lauren was shown along with the other four as being part of the goats when Ron mentioned his options.
The Reward Challenge
Of course, we didn’t see the order of the picks but at least this time Jeff presented the two line-ups before we got started:
For Blue, we had War Dog and Lauren ready for the swim while Devens and Julie waited for them on the end platform.
Yellow’s team consisted of Ron and Aurora (or maybe it is Franziska van Almsick going under a pseudonym!) preparing for the race with Victoria and Gavin standing at the end.
Going first, the two older men remained in a virtual tie for the first leg but then Aurora whipped through the water to take the lead. She didn’t even have to stop for air in the underwater part of the challenge so she handed the last two rings to Gavin with a good lead on Lauren. That’s when Devens took over and tossed the rings to victory.
Gavin in confessional: “So, we lost the reward but now this is an opportunity for me to build a strong relationship with Victoria, Ron and Aurora. I feel like War Dog has it out for me but I want a little sweet revenge and I want his head on a silver platter.”
Edge of Extinction Day 28
Kelley was being comforted by Joe and Aubry but then the resident harpy had to spew her venom.
Reem’s anger is getting sickening. I can’t believe the time wasted on such a bad character.
Vata Day 28
Ron’s confessional: “We come back to camp after losing the reward and it’s disappointing. I haven’t eaten really in 11 days but losing today is a great opportunity. This afternoon, I’m going to have time with Victoria, Aurora and Gavin so hopefully, it buys me a little time to figure out what’s going to be best for me.”
The women agreed they had to vote against Devens. Gavin just wanted them to tell him what he should do.
Gavin’s confessional: “The group was leaning towards taking out Rick Devens who is obviously the favorite from the jury’s point of view. I’d rather take out War Dog because he betrayed me. Unfortunately, I have to be adaptable, I have to go with the numbers at this point because I have no traction but eventually, I think War Dog is going to crumble and I’ll still be here.”
Gavin will get his way but he won’t get the credit.
Ron’s next interview: “Before Tribal Council, Aurora gave me her extra vote and for a moment I’m actually thinking maybe I should keep the vote for myself but then I’m thinking I’d rather give it back to her because that’s a better move for me. I’m trying to get Aurora to trust me completely and I think if she feels that, she would do whatever I need her to do or, if I choose, I can vote her out and she won’t see it coming.”
That’s when a dispute erupted between Ron and Aurora over the rice rations.
Aurora’s interview: “Ron is the quickest to get snappy when he doesn’t get his way. At this point, we are literally dating each other when all we want to do is break up. It is the Drama Queen in Ron that comes out but I’m used to be around Drama Queens because I am one so you’re not going to win with me.”
Here we have another possible prophecy: It’s remarkable that if Deven’s prophecy about the three guys falling comes true then this new one by Aurora would also come true: Ron would not win against her.
Ron’s reaction: “Aurora gets on my nerves so bad; she wants to have control over every situation, every moment. Look: I have made it a month with Aurora so if I have to go 39 days with her; I need to get two million dollars. Not one million, it needs to be doubled. She’s driving me crazy.”
Well, we know the prize won’t be doubled so maybe Aurora will break up with him before he sees it coming.
The Reward
War Dog was feeling relaxed.
Devens’ interview: “’War Dog and I who have had such an up and down game, strategically, are rubbing the mud on each other... the girls are doing the same... Going into this reward, the way the teams worked out, I’m not looking at it as a strategic opportunity because Lauren and Julie are not playing the game. They are just going where the wind blows; they are not in the driver’s seat and they seem OK with that. So, it’s just a cool human opportunity to bond with everybody, to step away from the game for a little while”
To me, that sounded like a fatal mistake and it was immediately underlined because we actually heard that Julie and Lauren were playing the game as soon as the two guys left them alone.
Julie told Lauren that she heard every woman’s name as someone who could be beaten in the end so she wanted to change that. Lauren had an idea: “We take out Rick”. The two agreed to work together.
Lauren’s interview: Julie is talking about how she wants War Dog gone but I don’t know that’s the smartest move. I think Devens is much more dangerous than anyone else in this beach so now I have to convince people to take Rick out.”
The Immunity Challenge
While Aurora came close despite hating puzzle, Devens came through, winning a second immunity challenge in a row.
Gavin’s interview: “Before the immunity challenge, we had this plan to get Devens out but as soon as Rick wins it just snaps in my head that it has to be War Dog. People know the game War Dog is playing and if he gets to the end, he will win this game. Hopefully people open their eyes and see that we need to get War Dog out right now. Sayonara, War Dog. I can’t wait to see him go.”
In a change of formula, the player giving the post-challenge interview, which I’ve often called the Kiss-of-Death interview, wasn’t wrong. What should we make of this change? Does it mean we should consider Gavin as a contender? We’ll need much more evidence before doing that because, up to now, Gavin’s image hasn’t been positive at all. No special attention had ever been paid him and no one has ever been heard complimenting him.
Vata Day 29
We saw sharks swimming around but also small fishes that weren’t bothered by those sharks. Instead, the images gave us the impression that the sharks were fighting each other. It all ended with air bubbles clouding the image.
What perfect symbolism to preface the beginning of the big threats going after each other. And it wasn’t only the sharks battling each other but also the minnows who looked serene, swimming in calm waters. Add the distorted image at the end created by those bubbles and it could mean it is time to reassess our views of this game’s outcome.
Victoria’s interview: “ I was so mad when Rick won immunity today. I wanted him out so bad. I wanted him out of here because he’s such a threat. The more he sticks around, I think the more dangerous he becomes. Our plan was going to be that Rick goes home but Rick is safe. War dog and Rick are the two big threats in this game but one of the threats won immunity, maybe you vote the other one out. It can be as simple as that.”
Ron’s interview: “War Dog says that if all the threats are gone the next largest threat would go. If we take out War Dog, that leaves me in the hot seat because I’m the next biggest threat. I have a tough decision to make: Do I send home War Dog with my vote and align with Aurora, Victoria and Gavin or, if I choose, I flip my vote and work with Devens and War Dog to vote for Aurora and she would go home. It’s a tough one.”
Ron seems to think he’s a bigger threat than Devens, an opinion that isn’t shared by his fellow castaways. His miscalculation could be fatal.
War Dog knew that with Rick being immune he was the next biggest threat. His option was to target Aurora and her big mouth. Knowing the smart move was to vote him out, he was banking on stupidity.
Right then, we saw Aurora making fire, blowing smoke in Lauren’s face. She then said: “I think my dad is going to be so impressed with my fire skills.”
This is a big hint about the upcoming fire challenge. The only problem is that only close attention tells us that it was Aurora who spoke; the sentence about dad being impressed was heard in voice-over with Julie on our screen. Most viewers won’t really know which of the three women will impress her dad. I wonder which one will be seeing her dad in the next episode. Maybe we should be looking for the impressed Dad!
Julie’s confessional: “I don’t trust War Dog but maybe his plan will work. It makes sense for my game. I have been kind of pushing for Aurora to get voted out of this game forever. Maybe I should have a conversation with Lauren.”
I think it’s quite notable that Julie mentioned Lauren rather than Ron. David told Julie that there is always one conversation that you remember from your journey on Survivor and maybe the conversation Julie and Lauren had in the hot water spring is that one for this season. Julie has desperately looked for someone to trust and while her number one is still Ron, he kept her in the dark for a crucial vote. Julie said she didn’t hold it against him and I’m sure she meant it but there still must be a doubt in her mind such as; could he do it again? By all her votes and her actions, Lauren has proven to be the only trustworthy person in this game so it’s natural to see Julie orbiting towards her.
At first Lauren wanted to stick with War Dog but then she hesitated, not liking the idea of keeping him for another round.
Lauren’s : “The group wants to take out War Dog. I would love revenge for Kelley but I don’t know if it’s the best thing for me and my game. I’m trying not to be too emotional about it but I’m really nervous. It’s getting to the point now, if I don’t look to the future, if I don’t set up my alliances, if I don’t get my ducks in a row then I won’t have a future.”
After talking to Ron, Aurora gave us an interview: “There’s definitely concern that Ron could be working with War Dog and Rick. Ron is the one that is playing both sides and he’s done nothing but lie to me in this game. My advantage is an extra vote and that definitely could come in handy especially because War Dog and Rick aren’t talking to me. The only other time that this happens is when my name is being written down and that never feels good. I mean it would be crazy to say that you feel comfortable because if you do you are going home.”
Did you notice the switch in roles just before the tribe went on the walk to Tribal Council? For the first time in a long time, the last words weren’t given to the player soon to be eliminated or one of the big threats of the moment. Instead, we heard from Julie, Lauren and Aurora. If Julie stops seeing Aurora as a player to eliminate and, instead, sees her as someone who never hurt her, then this could be our surprise Final Three.
Tribal Council
It was eerily quiet as the tribe approached the island’s theater. The orchestra was silent and the stage itself was empty so, for a moment, I wondered if we’d witness the first ever Tribal Council without Jeff. We’ve had challenges where the host took a day off but never a Tribal Council. I think I’d like to see that! The players would enter, wonder what is going on then the jury would walk in and one of them would simply ask: “What went on since the last vote?” The players would have to improvise, each balancing the fine line between informing the jury of his or her actions and keeping their secrets. But then the host appeared and we were back to the same tired formula.
The reaction we saw from Kelley and David when they saw that Devens had the immunity necklace told us all we need to know about their vote should Devens make it to the end.
War Dog told Jeff that the game becomes harder when there are fewer players.
Gavin said he hadn’t spoken to War Dog since the last vote.
War Dog said Gavin made a comment that he didn’t appreciate.
Kelley liked Gavin’s tirade against War Dog.
Devens said that every step was precarious.
War Dog was concerned about being the next big target to join the Outcasts. He informed the jury that Ron helped him get Kelley out of the game.
Jeff liked how War Dog put Ron in the cage with him.
Much to Kelley’s displeasure, Ron didn’t deny his actions.
Victoria said that telling the jury about your actions could be the badge of honor like Jeff said or it could be seen as bragging and it puts a target on your back.
Gavin agreed with that.
Aurora pointed out that the threats could change.
Lauren added that perceptions can change from one person to another.
Devens pictured it this way: They were all feeling like Caesar walking around camp with everyone else having a knife pointed at their back.
Ron didn’t like to think like that so he wanted to surround himself with people he trusted.
Lauren made the argument that when someone tells her they want to go to the end with her then that person must be thinking they can beat her.
Aurora agreed that it was a thin line to walk.
It was time to vote.
Lauren didn’t play her idol.
Devens and War Dog voted for Aurora.
To the jury’s excitement, everyone else voted for War Dog. In her moment of joy, Kelley sent kisses over to Lauren, even mouthing the words: “I love you”.
While Ron and Gavin were grinning from ear to ear, Devens let War Dog know that he didn’t vote against him. Had he read the jury correctly, he wouldn’t have been so honest.
The Story Last week, we felt that the main theme was: “There Are Bigger Threats Out There” and it is certainly still applicable. We have to wonder if the Final 3 will feature only passengers. With Julie and Aurora both capable of winning that Final challenge, it could very well happen but then they will have to find a way to eliminate whoever returns from the Edge of Extinction.
It’s funny that the title of the episode was changed at the last minute. After first announcing that this episode would be known as “La Cheeserie”, which was Devens victory scream after finishing his puzzle, we wound up with the jury’s “Fasten your Seatbelt”. I don’t have to worry about suspense so I went with the much more obvious “Sweet Revenge”. That was the real theme of this episode and while Gavin must have felt good after the votes were read, Lauren was the one that got revenge. Is it the beginning of her winning story arc? I think it was.
The Characters The old tenants of the Island of Extinction
Reem, Julia, David, Aubry, Chris, Eric, Joe, David, Kelley: If it weren’t for Reem’s constant negativity we could see this group as the minnows swimming quietly away from the battling sharks but there has been a lot of turmoil on the edge of extinction. In addition to Reem’s anger, we also have the Outcasts competing against each other for the hidden advantages. Yes, one of these players will be returning but we’ll have to wait and see which one before we can assess his or her chances of winning it all.
The New Resident:
War Dog: Considering his horrible showing in challenges we can safely say that War Dog will not be returning but a problem with the Edge of Extinction is that even now, you have to go there if you want to be on the jury. Production must be saving a lot of money in catering and personnel fees but it forces us to see awful people like Reem every week. At least with Ponderosa, we could choose not to look at those videos. I think the Edge of Extinction concept should be dropped but, if it isn’t, then they should give the opportunity to the players who have reached the merger to go directly to the jury house. It would mean less people to track each week and it would also make for a more objective jury.
The Threats
Devens: I think Devens made three big mistakes in this cycle: Tying his wagon to War Dog’s, letting everyone know about it even after the vote and then underestimating the women who are also playing the game. I think it will cost him dearly.
Ron: It would have been poetic justice to see Ron leave just before the Family Visit but maybe his story was about leaving right after it. We’ve often seen players talking about the Family Visit only to fall immediately after greeting their Loved One to the island. Could he be the next one to fill that role? There is only Aurora who is targeting Ron at the moment but that could quickly change. She knows that Ron is playing both sides and now Devens, who has been very vocal at TC could certainly confirm it for everyone else. He is the player in the best position right now but I see that falling apart very quickly.
The Floaters
Gavin: A player that always goes with the numbers cannot be trusted. Gavin has no loyalty so even if he gives his vote freely, the others should soon realize that they don’t need him.
Victoria: By no way we should consider Victoria as a leader because she has very little influence on the group but she is edited as one just by the number of times we’ve heard her thoughts on the upcoming vote. Knowing how the editors like to show their game following Nash Theory this editing choice reinforces our idea that a passenger will be winning this season and that it won’t be Victoria.
The Passengers
Aurora: She is really impressive in the water and in other types of strength challenges and what’s even more important, we hear Jeff and the other players giving her the credit she is due. In Survivor, a case doesn’t depend only on the moves one makes but also on challenge performance and there, Aurora is doing very well. However, I seriously doubt that the jury will give her the credit she is due. Who besides Joe and Aubry would vote for her?
Julie: She is an interesting case. Her plight should attract a lot of attention and sympathy from the jury but we’ve seen many jurors turning their thumbs down on plaintive older women. However, if she starts acting forcefully and starts by getting rid of Ron she could sway them to her side. Her lackluster role before the merger pleads against a victory in the end. Her coming out party during the merger episode compensates for that but her role has been up and down since then.
Lauren: When Devens said that Lauren and Julie weren’t playing the game, the editors immediately contradicted him by showing the two women plotting to work together against the big threats. To me, that was a sign that a pilot wasn’t going to be winning this season. After all, we’ve had so many leaders this season (I counted three in the original Manu: War Dog, Devens and Reem who had Keith and Wendy under her wing and tried to make a move) and while Kama started with only one leader in Ron, it quickly evolved into a M-Tribe itself with first Julia and now Gavin and even Victoria being edited as players who are trying to impose their direction to the game. So, if we go by the Nash Theory, a follower is more likely to win this season. The question is; which one? I usually like to make my decision known right after the episode of the merger so I’m very late this time. The early merger at 13 players and the knowledge that anyone from the Edge of Extinction could return are my excuse but now it’s time:
Lauren is going to be our Sole Survivor
There are numerous factors leading to this decision: First, her consistent edit from the very first episode up to now. Yes, she had a dip after finding the idol but she was always relatively visible in a season where visibility was constantly diffused by our trips to the Edge of Extinction. Then there was the attention given to her during her moment of weakness when we even heard Jeff calling her a warrior. We have also heard from other players that she is loyal. Finally, there is the the way the editors involved her in the decision to get rid of the biggest threat in the game even when her vote wasn’t needed. I could certainly be wrong and I could be influenced by the fact that she is one of only 2 players still in the game that I’ve enjoyed watching (the other being Devens) but that’s the way I’m seeing the game evolving.
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