There are bigger threats out there Previously on Survivor, did anything happen? Maybe not...
Vata Night 23
David had the opening interview, telling us that he was happy they played the idol even if he didn’t need it that time.
He’ll soon regret not having it anymore..
War Dog’s interview: “Aurora, she kept spewing on and on; diarrhea of the mouth. She essentially put everybody’s cards on the table and it literally was a perfect storm of something has got to give and, in this case, it was Julia’s torch: Gone!” After telling Ron that he wanted a six person alliance that would also include Kelley, Lauren, Julie and Gavin, War Dog’s interview went on: “In the old Manu-Lesu, I was the pilot on all the votes but since the merge I was a passenger on the plane. I was like, I hate this: The War Dog is being told what to do. But now, the original Kama has fractured and I’m going to take advantage of it. I told them my idea and they all loved it and now they want Aurora out next. It’s amazing how these people all imploded.”
After a few quiet episodes War Dog came back to full strength in this double TC episode. He is indeed back in charge and he’s very dangerous to everyone and anyone. If there is a warning sign about his chances then it’s his directness in making the decisions. If we recall what he said in one of his first interviews of the season he wanted to make the decisions but wanted to make others think it was also their decisions. Will it come back to bite him in the end?
I noted that both David and War Dog talked of Aurora’s inability to stay quiet, saying she was the primary reason for all the chaos at TC. We saw that Julia was equally responsible but all the blame is thrown on Aurora so that makes me wonder if it’s to explain why, as a Final three finalist, she won’t get any votes. She is the biggest goat out there right now.
Aurora gave us her recap of the previous vote: “Somehow, it all went to hell. I literally put my foot in my mouth and I ruined possibly my game. Now, everyone is going off on walks but me. Growing up in the Foster care system, I did not have friends so I ’m good being alone. I’m just trying to see what tomorrow brings. I’m going to play, I’m not giving up. Problem is I don’t know if I have a tomorrow.”
If Aurora is being edited as a losing finalist the editors are still giving her a chance to gain the viewers’ sympathy. On a side note, her talk about seeing what tomorrow brings and wondering is she even has a tomorrow is funny considering the editors were about to skip that tomorrow, jumping from Night 23 directly to Day 25 and the Immunity challenge. I wonder if there was a reward challenge on Day 24 that was edited out because it was insignificant.
The Immunity Challenge
Lauren, Kelley, Ron and Victoria chose pizza over a chance at immunity.
I certainly can understand Lauren’s choice, even Kelley and Ron’s but Victoria’s decision is questionable. If you’re curious Lauren and Kelley picked bottles with red caps which, I think were the root beers. I guess they’re not party girls...
War Dog was distracted by a butterfly, making him drop the urn.
It came down to a showdown between David and Aurora and she proved to be stronger.
Julie gave us the post-game interview: “I am not thrilled that Aurora won immunity. I really, really wanted her to go home tonight and now the game has changed so much I don’t know what I’m going to do at this point.”
Back in camp, Kelley had the first confessional saying that Aurora winning immunity was frustrating but that they had other options.
During their powwow, Lauren suggested they make a group decision so, immediately War Dog raised David’s name, saying it was a good time for a sneak attack. The group agreed.
The quickness of the agreement should have warned Kelley that Returning Players were an endangered species.
Gavin’s interview: “I wanted David out at the last tribal Council because he’s a returning player and a huge strategic threat. If we don’t eliminate him now he’s going to waltz his way to the end.”
War Dog’s confessional: “The plan we laid out to take out my nemesis in this game, David Wright, happens tonight. After that, I can do whatever I want but I never really worked with Ron and Julie on any vote and in a season in which we had five major blindsides you can never say oh! yeah! I’m safe tonight.”
It’s interesting that we only hear now that War Dog considered David as his nemesis. Giving him that label implies that War Dog had been thinking of voting him out earlier so maybe the story line could have been about a fixation he had on the returning player much like David’s fixation on Kelley. Instead, we only hear War Dog seriously considering eliminating David just a few hours (minutes for us) before it was going to happen. It paints War Dog as a man of immediate action, a real Survivor strategist. Knowing that War Dog would decide to eliminate Kelley next puts a lot of significance in the sentence “after that, I can do whatever I want”. War Dog used the vote against David as a test of Ron and Julie’s loyalty. Having found another loyal ally in Ron, War Dog was ready to ditch his original alliance and, like the “Good General” in “The Art of War” act quickly and unpredictably. He is the pilot of this ship but can he avoid the pitfalls along the way?
Knowing he would be a target, David talked to Devens about rallying Victoria, Aurora, Ron and Julie. His plan was to get out War Dog.
Only at the eleventh hour did David stop fixating on Kelley and recognized the real threat to his existence.
Victoria’s interview on Devens proposal which she told him was her ideal scenario: “At this point, I feel like I’m on the bottom so definitely, if I can get out of that role, I’m going to and this sounds like a plan that could work.”
With Victoria ultimately voting against David, it appears that she was content that she was completely on the bottom and played the old “anyone but me” tactic. Not the dumbest move but it certainly keeps her in the passenger seat.
Aurora’s interview: “It’s absolutely true that the Lesu 3 are controlling the game and they are not talking to me so even though I never thought I would be working with Devens and David I don’t see any other options right now.”
Julie was the next to talk with Devens and David who assured her they had the numbers to eliminate War Dog if she and Ron came on board.
Julie’s reaction: “I’m very nervous; Ron and I formed a six person alliance with the Lesu 3 which I don’t know if I’m a hundred percent committed to right now. War Dog’s dictating who is going home tonight. That doesn’t sit well with me and now I’m wondering if Ron and I are doing the right thing.”
Well, she'll be doing the “Wright” thing!
Presented with their two options, Ron told Julie that he felt good with War Dog, Lauren and Kelley.
Ron’s interview: “Two days ago, I was in trouble but now I’m in the middle of two alliances and both are trying to gain my favor. On one hand, I think War Dog and this alliance of six could work but the problem is that I think War Dog could win it if he gets to the Final Three; he’s playing a really good game but at the same time, I don’t trust David. He’s sneaky so I don’t know if I want to get in bed with David or War Dog. Julie is my ride-or-die and we have the power tonight. I wish I could have a little time to let it marinate but we are going to have to make a decision quickly.”
It seems that Ron had enough time to make his decision and let it be known not only to his allies but also to Victoria and Aurora. Who else could get the two girls to vote against David? Ron and maybe Julie, talked to those two to let them know where the numbers stood.
Julie’s next confessional: “Devens and David’s pitch makes sense to me but Ron’s unsure. Together, we can flip this game on its head but we have to be on the same page. This could be our million dollar decision and no matter what happens I’m ready to expect fireworks tonight.”
It's possible that the million dollar decision went in War Dog’s favor.
Tribal Council
David talked about the insanity of the last TC.
Devens who, like Ron, decided to wear a tie to the council, said it was all about loyalty and that he realized it after backstabbing Chris.
Julie’s claim that she was now flying her own little plane drew a negative reaction from Julia on the jury bench.
War Dog argued that he and his allies had proven their loyalty.
Devens saw that as proof that they couldn’t be broken which Kelley countered by saying he didn’t know the dynamics within the alliance.
We can say that she didn’t either!
Kelley added that they voted together because they had to but it may not always be that way.
I’d say she was right!
Devens claimed that the Lesu 3 would go to the end together and the others weren’t doing a thing to stop them.
One of the Lesu 3 would soon decide otherwise so the others didn’t need to do a thing, did they?
Ron said he didn’t like the hard sales pitch so they would be going with the people who treated them the best.
When David said he was loyal, Lauren shot him down by reminding him of his vote against her. War Dog added that he was a great talker who was squirming from one person to the other and that was why he had to go.
David pleaded for the hard vote which was to give everyone a better shot at winning the game.
Kelley said that he was saying what everyone says when they are on the bottom but that she felt confident the group would stay together.
It was time to vote.
No one played idols.
Devens and David voted for War Dog.
Everyone else vote for David.
Edge of Extinction Day 26
Joe had messages in bottles for everyone. It led them on a wild chase to find the advantage to give to a player in the game.
Is it a coincidence that David found it? Devens, Jeff’s obvious favorite, was in big trouble after that last TC and maybe he would have received that advantage from most of the islanders but with David finding it, production had control of the decision.
Day 27 The Immunity Challenge
Devens' advantage meant he’d only have to land four balls instead of five.
It was a big advantage considering no one got more than 3 balls to land. War Dog, Lauren, Kelley, Victoria, Gavin and Julie didn’t appear to get one!
Once more, Julie gave us the post-challenge reaction and it was once more about Aurora but it was the reverse of her previous one: “I always thought that Aurora was dangerous because not only is she a challenge beast but she’s also somebody that people might want to bring to the end. Last time, she won immunity and we couldn’t vote her out but I am praying that tonight is our chance.”
Well, Julie is right. In fact, there’s only one parking place for the little plane carrying the goat and that place is in dispute between Aurora and Julie.
Vata Day 27
Devens in confessional: “In the last Tribal Council, I lose my closest ally in the game; people are getting blindsided left and right, tribal has been live so everyone really wants this baby including me and I’m glad I have it.”
In the group huddle, the alliance of six agreed that it had to be Aurora.
War Dog’s interview: “I think people in position of power they want an easy vote and this one seems like the easiest vote: The group of six targets on Aurora but she has no ties in this game. There are bigger threats out there so I think it’s time to make a move on the last returning player and it’s Kelley Wentworth. To make a move like this against someone who knows me well, someone who has strategized with me for 27 days in this game; you got to be stealth. So, this morning, I had 30 second conversations with Aurora, Devens and Victoria.”
To underline War Dog’s skills at pulling the blindside, this confessional was partly heard in voice-over while we saw him sitting right next to an oblivious Kelley. We then had some flashback scenes showing those morning conversations making us witness War Dog’s quick and efficient actions.
When Devens asked if War Dog had the numbers, he answered that they had Ron and it was all they needed.
In essence, War Dog kept his whole alliance except for Ron in the dark about his plan. It was wise considering the need for stealth but he’ll have to worry about their reactions both in the game and if they become his jurors.
War Dog’s interview continued: “Logically, I knew they would work with me because it was in their best interest. They are on the bottom right now but my plan still requires one major convincing.”
In his push to convince Ron, War Dog pointed out that every season with a returning player saw one of them sitting at the end so they couldn’t let that happen.
Ron’s interview: “I can’t believe what I’m hearing right now; War Dog is like: “You know, I think it’s Kelley! We got to do it today; we got to get her out.” He is so unpredictable and that scares me. Kelley is definitely the biggest threat of anyone left in this game but if anyone goes home tonight but Aurora, Julie is going to be furious. So I have to be careful about that decision.”
In interview, Kelley reminded us that she has always been the underdog so she was enjoying the calm that comes from being in a majority alliance even if she realized it would take one person.
Especially one person who has a little bit of Tony in him!
Aurora’s confessional: “Tonight, either I’m going to be blindsided because yet again I’ve been told a pointless lie or Kelley’s going home. But I was given an extra vote from someone on the Edge of Extinction and could I maybe use that to try and gather favor? Absolutely.”
She gave Ron her extra vote, wishing for him to give it back either after the vote or when she comes back into the game.
Ron’s interview: “Right before we leave for Tribal, Aurora gives me her extra vote and instantly my mind goes to a dark place: I can vote her out if I write down her name. If she’s gone, I can keep this vote for myself. So tonight, I have two options: I can work with my original alliance to vote out Aurora or I can go work with War Dog and the three who are on the outs to vote out Kelley Wentworth. I love being in the middle and being the decision-maker but I got quite a dilemma. I want to make sure that I make the right call because it could be the difference between losing and or winning a million dollars.”
Tribal Council
Devens said that blindsides come when you start feeling the game is too easy.
Victoria said she hadn’t been involved in many conversations so it left her and Aurora as clear options.
Aurora pointed out that there were other options.
Ron explained that the taste of a blindside can get addictive and entice people into making moves that aren’t in their best interest.
Jeff asked Kelley if the desire of making blindsides could cloud the game.
That sounds a little hypocritical coming from a host who has often pushed for blindsides since they are often better for ratings than they are for the perpetrator’s game. One could say that it’s not exactly the taste of blindside that clouds the game but production’s craving for it.
Kelley said that blindsides aren’t always the right decisions.
War Dog’s outcome in this game will determine the value of this one.
War Dog agreed that David’s elimination was not a blindside but was still the right decision and he was hoping for more like that.
Victoria pointed out it was time to look at who was going to be there at the end with you.
Kelley said thinking too far ahead was tricky because you had to make sure you can get there first.
Making a case for his favorite, Jeff pointed out that there has only been one advantage played in the game and one idol played and they were both done by Devens.
Devens thanked his guardian angel David and added that the people were starting to think that all idols were on the Island of Extinction.
Ron went against Jeff’s idea of getting more people on his side because it makes you look suspicious.
Julie agreed it was time to back off.
It was time to vote.
Once again, no idols were played.
Kelley, Lauren, Gavin and Julie voted for Aurora.
War Dog, Devens, Aurora, Victoria... and Ron voted for Kelley.
She left saying there was a lot of lying going on. Lauren whispered “wow. while, from the jury side, Aubry recognized the “executioner” saying “Holy ___, War Dog”
When Lauren turned to War Dog he only turned his palms up suggesting he couldn’t offer her more.
David was also impressed by the move.
The StoryThe editors really tricked me last week when it seemed that the story was going in the direction of Kelley outlasting all the threats and winning the title of Sole Survivor. With this new evidence, we realize the beauty of the hidden story: For 9 weeks we constantly heard David Wright targeting Kelley so when he was eliminated it could have signaled clear sailing for the last remaining player but instead we are being shown that War Dog was able to do on his very first attempt something that all the others failed to do which was to blindside Kelley. In itself it was quite a feat considering that, in her two previous appearances, she had never been blindsided. Sure she had been voted out but she had seen it coming both times and she also had successfully played two idols to save herself. Now, she had another idol for protection.
So, is the story about this new player brilliantly outwitting the last two remaining veterans? Since I had previously eliminated everyone else, it should be but two other castaways have emerged as possible Sole Survivor so let,s look at these characters to see where we stand.
The Characters
The old tenants of the Island of ExtinctionReem, Julia, David, Aubry, Chris, Eric, Joe,: One of these previously eliminated players could make it back in the game but they’ve received such generic edits that it’s impossible to guess which it will be. Joe is an obvious favorite to win any type of challenge while Aubry has been practicing but both have been practically ignored in most episodes. The only two that stand out a bit over the others are Eric and Chris so I’d have to go with one of them. Can eother win? Both would receive a lot of sympathy from their fellow eliminated players so they’d have to be eliminated as soon as possible but they’ll have the Final 4 Fire Challenge as safety net. I’m sure production would be happy seeing their twist delivering a winner so we can’t disregard these Outcasts.
The New Residents:
David: The hunt for the advantage gave him the sense of still being in the game but his challenge skills have always been poor so I don’t see David returning to the real game.
Kelley: She has never won that crucial challenge, the one where it is for all the marbles and she will be facing fierce competition so it seems her torch snuffing was final.
The Goats – One of these two Players will probably get chosen to sit in the Final 3 but they’ll serve only as place holder:
Aurora: She didn’t know if she’d have a tomorrow but, right when she was at her lowest, the editors gave us a peek into her personal life. It was meant to draw viewer sympathy so it wasn’t accidental. Because of that I wouldn’t be surprised to see her coasting to the end. This vote was a test and she cooperated nicely, obeying to War Dog’s order. That should gain her third place money. She may have gained a little sympathy from the viewers but nothing to impress the jury.
Julie: We have often seen emotional wrecks making it to the Finals. Julie would definitely fit that archetype but the negativity we heard her expressing towards Aurora makes me think she won’t outlast her rival. Even her “ride-or-die” considered her too unstable to inform of the last vote so a total meltdown is to be expected.
The Endangered Species
Gavin: Gavin showed his disloyalty when he voted against his two closest allies in back-to-back Tribal Council so War Dog wasn’t going to trust this turn coat with his big move against Kelley. It’s funny to consider how quickly he went from two different majority alliances only to wind up at the very bottom of the group. Of course, he could still reverse the course of the game because alliances built on deceit aren’t the strongest but his own lack of loyalty should block his attempts.
Victoria: Like Aurora, Victoria quietly marched to War Dog’s orders so, on the surface, we should consider she has an equal shot at making it to the end but Victoria was just a necessary vote. For War Dog, it was a case of want and need. He wanted Aurora because she had no other ties while he needed Victoria for this vote and maybe this vote only. She has more connections than Aurora and a much more dangerous sense of the game making her too troublesome to keep.
Lauren: I’ll be more attentive to Lauren’s reaction from this vote than I have been to anything on this show for the last ten, fifteen seasons. Very few betrayals have been so vicious, cut so deeply. These three had gone to nine Tribal Councils and had voted together each time has they pointed out so how will Lauren react to this new situation? Maybe she’ll understand that War Dog wasn’t targeting her so it would help her chances considerably to forgive and forget but will she? If she doesn’t then she’ll have to play that idol sooner than she wants.
Unfortunately, this season suffers from an enormous lack of continuity mainly caused by the “Edge of Extinction” footage so we’ll probably not even hear from Lauren. I want to episode to start with the aftermath of this vote and her reaction in particular but we’ll either start with Kelley and the group that are out of the game or be sent immediately to the next challenge. Both are boring stuff.
The Contenders - It’s remarkable how quickly things can change in this game. As proof, these two were on the bottom on Day 25 but back in contention on Day 27
Devens: Devens felt he needed that immunity necklace but did he really? If he had been exposed then the vote would have been that much easier in appearance and, therefore it would have been easier to blindside Kelley. For someone who pledged he’d never work with War Dog again he certainly jumped at the opportunity. A bigger, maybe better, move was available: Turning the vote against the big schemer. It would have been difficult to convince Kelley of War Dog’s betrayal but if he had succeeded then he’d be the main pilot of the game instead of being in the passenger seat. But Devens doesn’t really need to have his hands on the wheel because he’s lived through the hell of Extinction Island and has been a vigorous participant in every Tribal Council he’s attended. Most jurors would give him their vote if he makes it to the Final 3.
Ron: At the start of the previous episode Ron was sure he’d be the next to go but then four different alliances came into play (First it was the reformed Kama, then the group of 7 that rallied against Julia, next we had War Dog’s alliance of six that included his Lesu allies and finally the rag tag group of outcasts that War Dog assembled to eliminate Kelley) and Ron was the only common denominator in all 4! Quite an achievement and while he was a passenger in all four groups he can certainly claim to have navigated his little plane through extremely difficult turbulence. That should merit tremendous support from the jury and Ron has been a very sympathetic figure from the start. I feel it would be a huge mistake to take him to the end.
The Top Dog:
War Dog: It is definitely his game. We’ve seen winners who were in the minority at the merger but few controlled the game as well as War Dog has done. Yul and Tony come to mind and we could even consider Hantz whose work helped Natalie’s game but all greatly benefitted from idols even super idols in the cases of Yul and Tony. War Dog has done it the old fashion way, by scheming and moving from one alliance to the next. Will War Dog be able to win the jury vote? We know that Aubry and David were very impressed with his latest move. However, will his gruff demeanor cost him the ultimate prize? Hantz was such a jerk to the people he eliminated that he didn’t stand a chance while War Dog has shown more respect to his victims but will it make a difference? That is the main question left unanswered.
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