Realizing that no one praised Elizabeth for her good showing during the Immunity challenge, I am led to believe that she was everyone’s target all along. We realized that the editing was amiss when all the Davids voted against Elizabeth despite the play to turn things against Angelina. It’s possible that someone, likely Carl, said that they were voting for Elizabeth no matter what and that was cut from the program. It’s also possible that no one, including Gabby, ever had the intention of voting for anyone else but Elizabeth. From Gabby’s perspective, Elizabeth’s ploy would have been more to discredit Angelina than to eliminate her.Now we have the 6 person Strike Force waiting to be parachuted on their target at Final 11. They have one more vote to stay undercover and then they’d have smooth sailing to the end...unless they start fracturing which would be very disappointing considering the alliance includes the best characters of the season.
12- Carl: This season, a foe has often followed his or her rival out of the game. Natalie went soon after Jeremy and Natalia while Lyrsa followed Natalie to Ponderosa. Elizabeth had three rivals, namely Carl, Dan and Angelina so which one will be voted out next week? Could they all go out the door one after the other? Now that would be funny. Getting drunk at the merger feast isn’t a good idea and I think Carl gave up more information than he received.
11- Davie: He was a minor star during the pre-merge but the cameras didn’t pay him any attention during this critical episode. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that he and Carl formed their own cross-tribal alliance with Dan and Kara but if that group exists it didn’t matter to the editors. His turn will come once the Strike Force takes over the game and probably decides to switch from booting the Goliaths and need an easy target.
10- Dan: The best thing he did during this episode was shifting the vote away from Christian and back on Elizabeth. So, even if his Goliaths aren’t truly in control, he isn’t scheduled for elimination for a long time. If the Strike Force sticks to its plan it stands to reason that one of Carl or Davie would be next and when they turn their attention to the remaining Goliaths, Angelina should top their list. He’d be at Top 10 by then and he’d be aware of the new dynamics around camp. With 2 idols he could not only stay safe a while longer but it could be enough to restore him back on top of the game.
9- Angelina: If she thought she was inspiring her tribe into battle with her military tactics then Angelina is terrible at reading body language. Her “human moment” has absolutely no place in today’s Survivor. Lex could pull it off in season 3 because a majority alliance had nothing to trouble it but now you have idols floating around so warning a target isn’t showing mercy, it’s looking for trouble. She said she would go with the group and that’s exactly what she should have done.
8- John: John, who had a superb pre merge, now looks like a narrow minded player, all brawn, no brains. The alliance that Alec built should have been his if only he had made the necessary preliminary work. His friendship with Christian may put him lower on the list of players to eliminate but he’ll probably won’t be given a chance to reach Final 7.
7- Kara: Flirting with Dan got her in trouble at the beginning of the game so why did she run into the same pattern at the merger. Their reunion was low-key enough to keep the attention away from them but the whispering at night is not very smart. She likes watching the drama while eating popcorn which makes her more of a spectator than a real player so her turn will come to experience something that we as viewers cannot experience; getting snuffed by the host.
6- Alec: His performance during the merger really surprised me. His quiet approach was the perfect way to play the merger. It’s never a good idea to flip alone against your original alliance and the Goliaths took due note of his untrustworthiness but Alec didn’t let that slow him down. He had been part of the core Goliath 6 alliance (Nick is right; an alliance needs a name!) so he knew that Alison and Mike were the two outsiders, the players that could listen to the idea of a new world order... well at least a new Koka Kola order. I’ve often said that flipping with 2 allies and forming an alliance with three members of the other side has always been the ideal way to play the 13 person merge but it took Alec to make it happen on the show. Now, can the Strike Force really parachute its way into control of the game? It should be fun to watch.
5- Mike: As the older player, Mike seems to be the conscience of the “Strike Force” alliance, the calming influence that will keep it on track and not get ahead of itself. As such, Mike doesn’t represent a threat so he could make it all the way to the end. It’s probably too bad for him that the Final 3 isn’t decided by a vote anymore but by a fire challenge because that could be his downfall.
4- Allison: She had been quiet through the first two stages of the game but she made good on her bond with Gabby to bring the “Strike Force” together. Winning the first Individual Immunity Challenge of the season is a nice personal achievement to share with the family when the show finally airs but it’s not always a good idea to do so. Al;ison didn’t need immunity for herself but this time the win was important because Elizabeth was the runner up. Things could have been dicey if Elizabeth had been immune.
3- Gabby: Could it be that Gabby’s scene at tribal was actually her play to earn Elizabeth’s vote? At one point she was determined on writing Elizabeth’s name in keeping with the Strike Force’s plan but then she waivered when she saw the Goliaths’ huddle. I think that was only a moment of doubt and she walked into Tribal Council ready to eliminate Elizabeth. If Gabby goes on to win the season by one vote and that turns out to be Elizabeth’s then we’ll have to applaud her jury management.
2- Nick: Yes, he walked into the alliance of six but it was not by luck. Nick’s good social strategy had practically guaranteed that a cross-tribal alliance would include him if it wanted enough members. Now that the alliance has been formed, the real work begins because an alliance needs a lot of care. Will Nick be up to the challenge? He took a back seat during this episode, letting others take charge which isn’t a bad idea for now but he’ll have to step up his game if he wants it to be recognized in the end.
1- Christian: It seems that everyone except Angelina wanted to work with Christian at the merger and even she recognized his strong game play. It’s not quite the level of admiration that JT enjoyed in Tocantins but Timbira’s love for JT was always a bit ridiculous. The factorials comment inserted at Tribal Council could have been irritating if it had come from someone with less charm but everyone laughed and even joined in, John saying he had just whispered that factorials were to be used to calculate the permutations and not exponentials. His good game play has attracted attention so he’ll need to work hard to keep the Strike Force together all the way to the end.
Booted - Elizabeth: According to players who were there with her, Elizabeth had no allies and no social graces. She was even the source of chaos according to Dan. That doesn’t make for a player who had a chance to win like she thought she could. Her exit interviews showed that her “classy exit” was all hypocrisy. To this day she is still bitter against all the Davids, except Gabby, for not following along. She’s even angrier at Carl whom she blames for short-circuiting her play at TC and she’s bitter at Dan and Alec for being afraid of the big move.
Actually she only has herself to blame. Instead of going to Gabby with a plan to disrupt Tribal Council, she should have rocketed to the closest Goliath, hopefully Dan, and said: “Angelina warned me that you were voting against me. She added, and I quote: “If you have an idol, you better play it tonight. Maybe you could vote against Dan at the same time.”” Now that could have caused chaos.
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