Nice list Aruba. Maybe mine will give you some things to reconsider. #ButFirst, I must say that this was a subpar episode even for a second episode. In most seasons, the second episode is often the weakest because it's simply a continuation of the premiere. Nothing has time to change so the vote is rather evident. Not only was this the case this time around but because of the moronic theme of the season there was little doubt which tribe would go to TC.
In China, Fei Long was obviously stronger than Zhan Hu but production was counting on two factors to upset the stronger tribe: They began the season with a challenge that clearly favored Frosti, the Parkour champion on Zhan Hu yet James completely demolished their course. And then they expected Fei Long to fracture under the weight of its huge egos but they managed to work well together. So, to keep the season interesting they resorted to the second most lopsided swap in series history.
We can wonder what they have up their sleeves to make sure David wins this season but we shouldn't be surprised when it happens.
1- Christian: Tribal Council was Christian’s moment to shine. He wasn’t the vote’s instigator but he was the one that made it work. In other words, he analyzed all the ideas swirling around him and he decided which ones would remain chimeras and which one would see life in the form of action. He seems well-liked by his tribe and he is their best hope for a challenge win so he should be safe up to the swap. Then it could depend on the numbers but circumstances have turned the members of the Orange tribe into what was called a family. Their chances of staying loyal after a swap are much better than those of the Purple tribe. It often only takes 1 person to flip the whole script and there seems to be more unattached players in the Purple tribe. That could be Christian’s next big move.
2- Gabby: While it was Elizabeth who came up with the idea of voting against Jessica, it was Gabby’s self-awareness that made the whole switch possible. Feeling vulnerable just before the first Tribal Council isn’t unusual but what was unusual was someone realizing that Bi and Jessica were only using her. Once they told her the target was Lyrsa, Gabby could have relaxed and gone with the flow but she questioned their motives, realizing that they weren’t making an alliance with her just demanding her vote. Needing something more solid, she was receptive to Elizabeth’s pitch and was able to bring in Christian and Nick to the table. Right now, a Gabby, Nick and Christian Final 3 looks very possible.
3- Elizabeth: When Jessica said that she trusted the wrong people after getting her torch snuffed, we knew it was Elizabeth who broke her trust. The funniest thing is that Jessica probably didn’t know who had betrayed her until she saw the episode along with us. Elizabeth has been surprising up to now. I’d say she’s Natalie’s complete opposite: She is getting along with everybody and, when she has an idea, she puts it in action herself. While Lyrsa wanted to get back at Carl, something that would have been extremely difficult to sell, Elizabeth proposed Jessica’s name and made a compelling case against the young waitress.
4- Nick: He has the Thoroughbred alliance with Elizabeth and the Mason-Dixon alliance with Christian and while the first didn’t seem sufficient to protect him at the time they were supposed to go to their first Tribal Council, the second has the feel of the season’s main alliance. It worked very well for JT and Stephen so it will be interesting to see if the new iteration works just as well. Would the country boy come out on top over the genius a second time? Contrary to Stephen, Christian doesn’t seem shy about explaining his actions. JT got the credit for most of that duo's actions and his southern charm sealed the deal but here we can see Christian getting credit while Nick doesn’t have JT’s charisma.
5- Angelina: While she didn’t have a big role in the premiere, Angelina took charge in deciding the tribe’s dynamics. Of course, a lot depends on the three guys following the women’s lead but numbers are so comfortable in this game that many players go with the flow just to avoid the headaches of making decisions, analyzing options and getting blood on their hands. If Angelina gets her way on the first vote and retains three or four allies after a swap then she could become a strong contender down the stretch.
6- Mike: Not only did Mike remove the target from his back but he’s got a strong ally in Jeremy. It still looks like Mike would have more affinity with the Orange tribe so I wouldn’t be surprised seeing him switch allegiance after a swap. For some reason, Mike seems like a player to watch this season. He reminds me of David fromthe Gen-X tribe but while I hated David for acting overanxious, I really like the neurotic Mike who tries hard to hide his insecurities. He feels much more authentic.
7- Kara: We learned that she was the brains in the power couple and she had a good idea of telling Natalia and Angelina that she isn’t committed to Dan but she then quickly fell in line with Angelina’s plan. So, in fact, Kara went from being Dan’s follower to Angelina’s but, for the players, the perception is still that she is in a power couple alliance. With people knowing about Dan’s idol, she could be the target of an idol flush. The good thing is that Kara stepped up during the challenge, replacing the exhausted Angelina and it was only then that the Purple tribe started putting the puzzle together.
8- Dan: He was one of the stars of the premiere but Dan really took a hit in this episode. He was confident no one would find his idol but now Jeremy and Mike know he has it. He thinks he’s playing with Kara but she is playing him. His showmance is her strategy. He’ll probably be with the numbers in their first Tribal Council but if he swaps to a tribe with either Mike or Jeremy then his idol could make him a target. His directions seemed to make a difference during the puzzle. Purple was much more in alistening mode in this challenge than in the first IC and Dan was the one telling them what to do.
9- Natalia: While she is part of the three women core alliance, Natalia feels more like a helper instead of the one at the center of the action. If the three women can get Dan, Alec and Jon to vote with them then Natalia will be cruising to the swap but will she still have her allies around her at that point?
10- Jon: The least we can say is that the wrestler hasn’t entered the ring yet. It’s like a tag-team match where he’s on the sideline while his counterpart entered the action. We know that Jon wants to play with Natalie but will he have a chance to do so? If he is wrapped around Angelina’s finger then he won’t have much to say about the vote.
11- Lyrsa : We can give her credit for not giving up when her name came up. She’s not a quitter but it wasn’t her actions that turned the tables. She had to rely on her friend Elizabeth for that. Now that the nerds have gained control of the alliance, they could vote her out and keep the numbers.
12- Jeremy: By going through Dan’s belongings and by being so assertive in camp, Jeremy is quickly turning into the season’s Villain. He introduced the theme of Ideas and Actions when he told Natalie that her ideas didn’t correspond to any actions. In a sense, we can say that Jeremy has also been all about ideas which haven’t led to any actions. He’s concentrated on the next vote but the tribe hasn’t voted yet. It would be quite funny to see Jeremy being blindsided because it would show that he lacks self-awareness.
13- Davie: He’s in the same position as Carl and Bi but his role as provider and his idol should keep him in the game longer. I think it’s important to note that we heard about Jessica being the glue that held Carl and Bi together but that Davie wasn’t included. Maybe the alliance of 5 thinks they can work with Davie in the future. We have a nice contrast between the two idols: Davie’s is a secret while Dan’s is common knowledge but Davie is not in the majority while Dan seems to be. Davie is in a position of wasting his idol by playing it unnecessarily while Dan is in a position of being blindsided with it in his pocket.
14- Alec: It’s quite ironic that Alec’s only intervention during the episode was to tell us that Dan made a bad move by falling for Kara when we heard that he has fallen for Natalia! Apparently, he’s her baby. Now, maybe he’s not as much into her as she thinks he is but the unnecessary insertion of the scene where he teases her on the beach seems to corroborate her comment. We also noted that he gave his tribe the lead in the challenge but come on! he was racing against a woman and their lead meant nothing because all that mattered was solving the puzzle.
15- Allison: From a tribal dynamics point of view; she’s not with the three women whoappear to be in control of the tribe but she isn’t in their sights either. We have nothing to connect us to Allison so she should be one of those characters who leaves without having an impact on the season.
16- Bi: She made a nice comment about technique being more important than strength after the challenge loss but she certainly didn't have the right technique while building that ladder. She is now in a precarious position so her story could be about being a valiant soldier who picked the wrong side.
17- Carl: His only presence in the episode was to tell us that the target had moved from Nick to Lyrsa. We didn’t hear from him when it came time to decide the vote or even during Tribal Council. The only reason he wasn’t the target was his strength but, like Christian said, as they come closer to a swap, tribal strength becomes less important.
Natalie: She is the type of boss that thinks she knows best but she has lost her crew’s confidence. That scene with Jeremy was all we needed to know about her ability to adapt. How can she adapt when she doesn’t even know what’s going around her? Inept player shave made it far in the game but rarely the irritating ones. We are VERY far away from the time where her ineptness would be sufficient compensation for her irritating character. She asked why eliminate the person who isn't a threat to win the game but that's a question to ask when the game is down to the jury portion. Right now, players need people that will help them get to the end, not the one that could guarantee a win. Natalie is still useless.
Booted - Jessica: Yes, her vote was a compliment in a way but maybe not the way she thought. The others saw her as someone who could bond with others, as someone who had a strong social game and who had already started to play. That can become very dangerous indeed.
It was funny that, in a way, Christian had to choose between two girls. He wanted to play with Jessica (who wouldn't!) but he was already playing with Gabby. Many young men would go for the hotter girl but Christian, a guy who probably never had to choose between two girls in his life, chose the more accessible one!!
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