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"AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two"
xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-21-07, 00:22 AM (EST)
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"AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
I'm starting a new thread to prevent the other one from getting any longer. I'm on dial up and the loading time is starting to drag a bit. Anyway, I'll be posting the final results of both DialIdol and VoteFair on this thread. You need to comment on, complain about, cheer, or even question the results of the predictions? You may do it here. Just remember that these are just predictions, and do not actually reflect the results of the voting. Thus, everything here will not have any spoiler value despite the alleged accuracy of DialIdol. Here's the link for the previous thread (link) in case you want to check it out. Snidget and Fishercat have posted some great information about DialIdol in there. Plus of course, the results for the first four weeks of AI6. Also, because of the length of the posts in the thread, I'm discouraging everyone from using your sigpics here. I'm not stopping you from doing it, just please don't do it often.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-21-07, 02:04 AM (EST)
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1. "Results, Top 11 Finalists" |
DialIdol, by Score 1 Melinda Doolittle 2-6 Phil Stacey 2-7 Sanjaya Malakar 2-7 Blake Lewis 2-7 Lakisha Jones 2-11 (B3) Jordin Sparks 3-11 (B3) Chris Richardson 6-11 (B3) Haley Scarnato 6-11 (B3) Gina Glocksen 6-11 (B3) Chris Sligh 6-11 (B3) Stephanie EdwardsStephanie was also in last place last week, but didn't end up in the bottom three. Sanjaya turned out to be in the bottom three last week despite DI's predictions, so we'll just have to wait and see what happens to him this week. Just stating the obvious, but if this prediction holds true, then expect Sanjaya to participate in the upcoming AI tour. Anyway, Phil finishes quite strong this week on their chart, beating favorites Lakisha, Jordin, Blake, and (ugh!) Sanjaya. Melinda takes solo position for first place. DialIdol, by Busy Signals 1. Melinda Doolittle 2. Phil Stacey 3. Blake Lewis 4. Lakisha Jones 5. Jordin Sparks 6. Sanjaya Malakar 7. Stephanie Edwards 8. Chris Richardson 9. Chris Sligh 10. Haley Scarnato 11. Gina Glocksen Melinda also takes the lead in this list. Over 1/3 of calls for her translate into busy signals. Gina has no such luck--only 1 out of 9 calls end up as busy signals for her. VoteFair 1. Melinda Doolittle 2. Lakisha Jones 3. Blake Lewis 4. Jordin Sparks 5. Chris Sligh 6. Gina Glocksen 7. Chris Richardson 8. Stephanie Edwards 9. Haley Scarnato 10. Phil Stacey 11. Sanjaya Malakar Even though Sanjaya remains the least popular choice in VoteFair, they're predicting that the two most vulnerable this week are Stephanie and Phil "because their 'traditional vote counts' in these VoteFair results are lower than the ones of least-popular Sanjaya". English, please? They are also predicting a final three of Melinda, Blake, and Jordin, with the first two moving on to the finale. They're giving the edge to Melinda for that final two bout.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-07, 05:42 AM (EST)
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2. "AOL Poll" |
They predicted Brandon leaving last week, so lets see how they do1. Melinda 2. Lakisha 3. Jordin 4. Blake 5. Haley 6. Chris R. 7. Sanjaya 8. Chris S. 9. Phil 10. Gina 11. Stephanie
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-21-07, 06:06 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: AOL Poll" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-21-07 AT 06:09 AM (EST)Oooh! Thanks for bringing it here, Snidget. It's always nice to see different lists for us to compare. ETA: Wow, the results on this poll changes FAST. Now it's showing the first seven intact, followed by Phil, Stephanie, and Gina. Chris S. is at #11.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-07, 06:51 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: AOL Poll" |
the 8 pm rankingsMelinda Jordin Blake Lakisha Haley Phil Sanjaya Chris S Chris R Gina Stephanie
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-21-07, 11:33 AM (EST)
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7. "Final Results, Top 11 Finalists" |
I thought that would be the final rankings, but I was wrong:By DialIdol Score 1 Melinda Doolittle 2-6 Phil Stacey 2-7 Blake Lewis 2-7 Lakisha Jones 2-7 Sanjaya Malakar 2-11 (B3) Jordin Sparks 3-11 (B3) Chris Richardson 6-11 (B3) Stephanie Edwards 6-11 (B3) Chris Sligh 6-11 (B3) Gina Glocksen 6-11 (B3) Haley Scarnato Stephanie and Haley switch places, with the latter getting the lowest score from DI. Chris S. and Gina also switch places, Chris gaining the upper hand. Busy signals and VoteFair results remain the same.
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aquariaqueen 2616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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03-21-07, 07:08 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-21-07 AT 09:17 AM (EST)35 minutes after the show, I started calling for Lakisha since she was not as brilliant as her diamonds. For a whole hour, I was able to get through EVERY time!!! That's scary! ETA a very needed "not".
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-07, 09:13 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
I started watching the show at 10:30 and started voting for Blake after he sang and did so for about 1/2 hour straight...NO BUSY SIGNALS either...It must be the Glowie Factor..."I'm not voting bc this season is too boring compared to Bucky and Chris last year."
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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03-21-07, 10:08 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
could it be a factor of where you live?I'm in the seattle area, and I didn't try to vote for our local boy Blake because he seemed safe. but I had a hard time getting votes in for Gina! probably a factor of my market? I almost tried some of the other numbers for comparison, but lacked the motivation to bother. hah. seattle in general is more alternative than pop. although the alternative types probably boycott the show, so it's hard to know how that washes out.
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aquariaqueen 2616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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03-21-07, 12:17 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
I'm in the midwest....but it doesn't mean you have to laugh at me!!! LOL
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-07, 12:22 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Some people seem to think they might have added some capacity to the system.Which makes some sense if they want the final vote tallies to be higher than last year. We will have to see how much they go up at the end. Some of the votes have been close enough (where they are all almost the same % according to Ryan) that I think they probably needed to add more capacity. They've gotten complaints about that. If they can handle more incoming calls we should have fewer busy signals. "I know that there are people who do not love their fellow man, and I hate people like that!" Tom Lehrer
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Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-07, 12:31 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Chris Daughtry "seemed safe" last year. I would HATE for that to happen again this year with Blake. I'm not comparing the two by any means, I'm just comparing the "seems safe" thing.Please don't make me vote.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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03-21-07, 04:05 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
yeah, I don't assume anyone's "safe" as a general concept. but I also was looking at DialIdol, and he seemed good. although it's hard to trust that so much after Sanjaya's mysterious discrepancy last week. and I have a hard time believing Phil was a top vote-getter last night. makes no sense at all to me.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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03-21-07, 05:56 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-21-07 AT 06:01 PM (EST)Here's what I found in the season 4 archives --a theory from ToddLJ who had it at least in season 3, maybe even season 2? Anyway, it is basically a fan base will rally to "save" someone who was in the bottom 3 the previous week--Phil and Sanjaya fit that bill with getting enough votes this week (we think) to be safe this week: -------------------From ToddLJ----------- Here's the rule: Part 1: In any given week, the bottom three can be predicted by looking at the bottom three from two weeks prior. Part 2: Two members of the bottom three will be the two people who were in the bottom three two weeks prior (but weren't booted.) Part 2-A: One of those two people will be booted. Part 3: The other person in the bottom three will be someone who has never been in the bottom three previously. Part 3A: Or someone who was in the bottom 3 previously, but not in the prior two weeks. This rule can't predict the first two weeks, because it's based on patterns, but since week three, this rule predicted the boots of Jessica, Nadia and Anwar. That's 3 out of 5 boots that have followed this rule. ----------------- Top 12: Bottom 3 --------- Phil (safe) Sanjaya (bottom 2) Brandon (booted)
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-07, 05:43 PM (EST)
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13. "Dial Idol by state." |
LAST EDITED ON 03-22-07 AT 05:28 AM (EST)On the site if you click Geo Predictions it shows who is first and last for each state. I thought it might be interesting to look at. * is bottom 3Top 12 Predicted Loser # States Idol 7....Sanjaya* 5....Brandon* 3....Chris S. 2....Chris R. 1....Haley 4....No Score 28...Tie Top 12 Predicted Winner # States Idol 25...Melinda 6....Lakisha 3....Sanjaya* 3....Jordin 2....Gina 2....Blake 2....Steph 1....Haley 5....No Score 1....Tie Top 11 Predicted Loser # States Idol 10...Steph* 5....Phil 4....Sanjaya 3....Chris R.* 1....Chris S. 1....Haley 5....No Score 21...Tie Top 11 Predicted Winner # States Idol 23...Melinda 5....Lakisha 4....Blake 3....Sanjaya 2....Jordin 2....Gina 2....Phil 1....Haley 5....No score 3....Tie ETA: * for bottom two from Top 11
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-25-07, 09:40 PM (EST)
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16. "Uhmm..." |
Hi guys,I'll be gone for the next couple of weeks (1st week because of an extremely hectic work schedule, 2nd week because of an overseas trip) so can I ask anyone to track the DI / VF scores for those weeks? You just have to put the rankings from the websites after the voting window has closed and maybe a summary of how each contestant has moved up or down the rankings through time, and maybe even speculation as to why Sanjaya keeps ranking in the top three. Thanks, everyone!
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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03-26-07, 10:19 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Uhmm..." |
Xwraith--I would volunteer to do it but I am out of town this week on business and will not be able to monitor it much. If no one else posts it I will post when I can.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-26-07, 06:49 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Uhmm..." |
I should be able to help out with this.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-26-07, 06:50 PM (EST)
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19. "AOL Poll. Top Ten Before the Show." |
I thought I'd see how this looks on Monday and they again after the show airs.Here is the order, no info on the margins. Melinda Jordin Blake Chris R. Lakisha Haley Sanjaya Chris S. Phil Gina
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-28-07, 05:22 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: AOL Poll. Top Ten Wednesday Morning" |
Melinda Jordin Blake Lakisha Chris R. Haley Sanjaya Chris S. Gina Phil
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-28-07, 05:22 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: AOL Poll. Top Ten Wednesday Evening" |
Since these can be voted on at any time.Looks like Gina and Phil moved up. Melinda Jordin Blake Lakisha Chris R. Gina Haley Phil Sanjaya Chris S.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-28-07, 05:18 AM (EST)
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20. "Top 10 Rankings" |
Dial Idol Rankings.1-2 Melinda Doolittle 1-7 Chris Richardson 2-7 Lakisha Jones 2-7 Sanjaya Malakar 2-10 Gina Glokesen 2-10 Phil Stacey 2-10 Blake Lewis 5-10 Jordin Sparks 5-10 Haley Scarnato 5-10 Chris Sligh Since the Raw Busy numbers seem to be predictive the last couple of weeks here they are. Followed by the Busy Percentags Sanjaya 11044 Melinda 7452 Gina Glocksen 7247 Jordin Sparks 6271 Blake Lewis 6196 Haley Scarnato 5385 Chris Richardsen 4224 Chris Sligh 3920 Lakisha Jones 3511 Phil Stacey 3451 Vote Fair Melinda Doolittle Blake Lewis Jordin Sparks Lakisha Jones Gina Glocksen Chris Richardson Chris Sligh Haley Scarnato Phil Stacey Sanjaya Malaka
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-28-07, 08:54 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Top 10 Rankings" |
Finally got home after a day and a half of nonstop working... VoteFair says that a surprise elimination shouldn't surprise us this week. Among their picks to be vulnerable this week are Lakisha, Chris Sligh, and Chris Richardson. They're not counting out Phil and Gina, though, who are also not very popular as far as their ranking goes. BTW, last week, their prediction of a Stephanie elimination came true. Let's see how they'll fare this week.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-28-07, 05:42 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Top 10 Rankings Dial Idol by state" |
Predicted Loser Idol.....# States where they Lost Sanjaya.....7 Phil........6 Chris R.....5 Chris S.....5 Haley.......5 Gina........1 Lakisha.....1 Tie........14 No Score....6Predicted Winner Idol.....# States where they Won Melinda.....22 Jordin.......5 Sanjaya......4 Gina.........4 Chris R......3 Phil.........2 Blake........2 Chris S......1 Haley........1 No Score.....6 Won - Lost Melinda.....22 Jordin.......5 Gina.........3 Blake........2 Lakisha.....-1 Chris R.....-2 Sanjaya.....-3 Haley.......-4 Phil........-4 Chris S.....-4
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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03-29-07, 07:52 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Top 10 Rankings" |
From RickyHoeGuardian at IdolForums--he is reporting this as the actual vote order and says "they didn't lie":1. Melinda 2. Blake 3. Lakisha 4. Sanjaya 5. Chris. R 6. Gina 7. Jordin 8. Phil 9. Haley 10. Chris S -------- I predict some repimping of Jordin because I don't think they want her as low as 7th. She should be fine with standards/big band week.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-07, 10:43 AM (EST)
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27. "AOL Top Nine Preshow" |
*squints* *squints and tilts head*1. Sanjaya 2. Melinda 3. Jordin 4. Blake. 5. Chris R. 6. Phil 7. Haley 8. Lakisha 9. Gina *goes to VFTW.com and lurks* Ah, the VFTWers found the MSNBC and AOL polls and have found a way to vote for Sanjaya all week long.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-03-07, 01:48 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: AOL Top Nine Preshow" |
it's heartening to know those people really don't have lives, somehow.makes it easier to not care what they think and do. lol.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 06:07 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: AOL Top Nine Weds AM." |
1. Sanjaya 2. Melinda 3. Jordin 4. Blake 5. Haley 6. Phil 7. Gina 8. Chris 9. Lakisha
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-04-07, 02:26 AM (EST)
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29. "Top 9 rankings" |
at the end of Pacfic zone voting, before Hawaii: 1-5 Melinda Doolittle - 1-9 (B3) Phil Stacey - 1-9 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar - 1-9 (B3) Chris Richardson - 1-9 (B3) Blake Lewis - 2-9 (B3) Jordin Sparks - 2-9 (B3) Gina Glocksen - 2-9 (B3) Lakisha Jones - 2-9 (B3) Haley Scarnato
at 10:30 my time, three were safe including Phil. Then the bottom four shifted around 5 or 6 times, it was really in motion. Lakisha was even on the bottom once. So were the Jordin and Gina.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 06:03 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Top 9 rankings-Raw Busy signals." |
Raw Busy numbers reported by DialIdolSanjaya 16,750 Gina 7.470 Melinda 6,790 Blake 6,680 Jordin 5880 Haley 5500 Phil 3600 Chris 3380 Lakisha 2270
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 06:05 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Vote Fair" |
1. Melinda 2. Jordin 3. Blake 4. Lakisha 5. Gina 6. Chris 7. Phil 8. Haley 9. Sanjaya
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 06:25 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-07 AT 06:26 AM (EST)Predicted Winner
Idol.....# States Melinda...14 (All East of the Mississippi except for Minnesota) Hayley.....8 (Mostly West of the Mississippi, did not take Texas) Sanjaya....6 (So the VFTW are in Texas, Nevada, Iowa, Mass. Maryland and Delware) Jordin...4 Gina.....3 Phil.....3 Chris....3 Blake....1 Lakisha..0 Tie......3 No Score.5Predicted Loser Idol.....# States Phil.....10 Lakisha...5 Hayley....4 Gina......3 Sanjaya...2 Chris.....2 Jordin....1 Melinda...1 Blake.....1 Tie......16 No Score..5 Winner-Loser Melinda...13 Hayley.....4 Sanjaya....4 Jordin.....3 Chris......1 Gina.......0 Blake......0 Lakisha...-5 Phil......-7
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-07, 02:39 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
You give too much credit to Stren and VFTW. Teenage girls are voting for Sanjaya out the ying yang. They watch the show and buy music so why should they not. He is not as bad as you all think he is. Everybody dising Sanjaya just makes the girls vote more. lol I think Simon did the right thing this week. lol
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-07, 03:06 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-07 AT 03:08 PM (EST)ha ha ha you are funny It is ok. Believe in the Easter Bunny too? alol of People too. lol Why can't people face it some people don't hate him and actaully like him? lol People vote for who they want. You guys are too funny!
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-07, 04:23 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
yep whatever if you don't get it. lol
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 05:00 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
Everyone: bob_chester has been banned, so please don't respond to him any longer.
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-07, 03:11 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
You know what next week I am going to vote for Sanjaya too. Not because of VFTW just to ##### off all the naysayers. There is no real stars this season like last season. So I hope Sanjaya wins now.. It would be hilarous! lol
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 03:49 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
You give too much credit to Stren and VFTWI know they report on the VFTW forum that a fair number of them do use dialidol, so I suspect some of the votes on there are those people. I also know the AOL poll numbers changed after the Worsters had it up on their forum and reported power voting on it. I don't know how many tweenagers are using power-voting software. I think they may like the sitting and actually dialing the phone or texting the vote in thing. Having been a tweenage girl once setting the software and going to do something else would just not have the same appeal. I knew the moment I saw Sanjaya that he'd be getting the Tween vote. There is always a Tween favorite. Just happens they also tend to end up as the one the Worsters vote for because the Tween favorite usually annoys the heck out of Simon. Personally, I think he's good entertainment and has that soft non-threating boy thing that makes 12 year old girls get all swoony. I think that with some of the right training and coaching he could get his voice under control to do well at live performance. He just isn't there, yet, IMO. "I am returning this otherwise good typing paper to you because someone has printed gibberish all over it and put your name at the top." - An English Professor
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-07, 04:22 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
My daughter use speed dail and just keeps pushing. She says she gets a lot of busy during the 1st hour and gets through a lot more then second hour.
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 05:04 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
>I don't know how many tweenagers >are using power-voting software. My oldest daughter is a tween, and none of her friends use power-voting software ... in fact, they'd never even heard of it until I brought it up last week.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-04-07, 03:02 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Top 9 rankings--AOL Poll" |
great.now I really have no idea who to predict. lol.
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selah 94 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-04-07, 04:32 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Top 9 rankings--AOL Poll" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-07 AT 04:33 PM (EST) I would think the reason Sanjaya is so high in the AOL poll is because of all the press he has been given, not simply because of a teen vote.. personally, I believe that some people take Americal Idol much too seriously, and others would love to see Sanjaya win, or at least go much farther, just because he is so different.. I'm sure the producers love all the attention he is bringing to the show. I'd like to see him stay until Phil, Haley, and Gina are gone..
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 05:40 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Top 9 rankings--AOL Poll" |
He went from middle of the pack (which I expect from the fans) to number one after VFTW started a voting campaign on various on-line polls.They have a thread on the forum where they discuss how to autovote for those and tracking the progress as Sanjaya went up the polls. "I am returning this otherwise good typing paper to you because someone has printed gibberish all over it and put your name at the top." - An English Professor
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-04-07, 03:12 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Top 9 rankings" |
and Hawaii made no difference. the odds are all the same. (assuming they actually watch Hawaii? do we know for sure?)
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 03:40 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Top 9 rankings" |
If you were to check the Geopredictions on DialIdol.com it makes sense nothing changes with their stats after Alaska and Hawaii vote.Aren't many votes being cast using DialIdol from either of those states.
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-07, 04:26 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Top 9 rankings" |
If I were in Hawaii right now I would not be watching TV or voting. I don't think there are enough people in Alaska to make a difference.
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cahaya 19891 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 00:16 AM (EST)
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62. "RE: Top 9 rankings" |
Welcome to the boards here, jordynluv. Yup, I'm a Melinda fan, too. I'm glad to see you made it know that even people from Hawaii watch AI. Indeed, a lot of people worldwide watch the show and it was even a hit in Malaysia where I had lived for quite some.
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-05-07, 05:52 AM (EST)
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69. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Dial Idol seems to have no relevance. If you looked at it, it had LaKisha and Phil in the bottom two.That was not the case. It failed this week, and last week. What's the story?
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 06:33 AM (EST)
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70. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 06:35 AM (EST)With the margin of error all the people who have been voted off have been potentially the bottom person. If you really look at what they say the only person who was safe was Melinda. Everyone else was potentially in last place. Also, it was never designed to be a perfect prediction tool. There seems to be a lot less busy signals than before which makes it less accurate (if they want bigger vote totals than last year they had to up the capacity to receive votes). There is also the problem that DialIdol voters are probably not a scientifically representative sample of all American Idol voters. If you go to the site and look at the raw data Lakisha gets very few dialidol votes even if she is popular with other groups. This mean she isn't going to be measured accurately. They wrote the program so people could autodial for their favorites. That it reports busy signals has some predictive value, but like I said, the nature of how it is used by whoever uses it means it can't be a perfect predictive tool. Sometimes the raw data tells you more than the final score. No computer model is perfect. Just look at the margin of error for where a hurricane will land 5 days from now as an example. ETA: It isn't like any of the other polls got Gina as the boot, either.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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04-05-07, 08:12 AM (EST)
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72. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Dial Idol's issues are further compounded by regional/local telco issues. I could not get through much for Blake (yes, I voted, lol) right after the show ended. I tried again between 10:30-11 and got through almost all the time. Not all markets may have had the same phone congestion I had right after 9. I do not know if my area's phone congestion was Blake related or any-idol related--just the volume of calls in general.Their lack of accuracy surprises me because last week's votes were down 33% from the previous year--so 7you would think the lower vote amounts would make them more accurate instead of the reverse. BTW, Snidget, thanks for creating the chart below this post--it's great to see all the data.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 09:11 AM (EST)
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74. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 09:13 AM (EST)From my limited understanding of the math they use to calculate you actually want more busy signals not less. It's not based as much on the votes that get through as it is the busy signals. The busy tells you how the population as a whole might be voting. If almost of the lines are clear almost all of the time it is hard to tell anyone apart, and most of the predictions really only tell you that Melinda is safe and the rest are too close to call. Yep it puts them in some order, but the margin of error is so big that most of the field could easily be in the bottom three. The problem is that isn't sampled evenly. It would be one thing if the dial idol voters voted for all the contestants close to evenly. I suspect they do try to normalize for that, but any mathmatical model is better when you are working off of real data rather than what you extrapolate. I may start adding in the % busy which hasn't been as good most weeks, but this week I think is the only number that had Gina at the bottom. ETA: The Geopredictions page shows you how the different states vote, it is kind of interesting to see how some parts of the country's dialidolers really vary in who they favor.
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-05-07, 03:01 PM (EST)
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80. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Thanks for your explanations, Snidget! . . . I guess I'm going to have to stop telling the people in my office that I know who's going each week based on DialIdol, lol!
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dragonflies 8051 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 08:14 AM (EST)
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73. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Silly Snidget, it's too early for Hurricanes.I think only a small segment of the population uses dialidol, so it can't be a completely accurate predictive tool. Ii on the other hand have gotten the boot right every week so far this season. Too bad I don't post on "Should go/will go". I just tell DH and the kids. They are amazed by me.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 06:38 AM (EST)
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71. "Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 06:41 AM (EST)Moving from the ECST now that time has expired. Prediction Summary (so will do top three, middle three and bottom 3 in order (green, blue, red) Dial Idol Ranking 1-5 Melinda Doolittle - 1-9 (B3) Phil Stacey - 1-9 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar - 1-9 (B3) Chris Richardson - 1-9 (B3) Blake Lewis - 2-9 (B3) Jordin Sparks - 2-9 (B3) Gina Glocksen - 2-9 (B3) Lakisha Jones - 2-9 (B3) Haley Scarnato Dial Idol Raw Busy Sanjaya 16,750 Gina 7.470 Melinda 6,790 Blake 6,680 Jordin 5880 Haley 5500 Phil 3600 Chris 3380 Lakisha 2270 Vote Fair 1. Melinda 2. Jordin 3. Blake 4. Lakisha 5. Gina 6. Chris 7. Phil 8. Haley 9. Sanjaya AOL Poll 1. Sanjaya 2. Melinda 3. Jordin 4. Blake 5. Lakisha 6. Haley 7. Gina 8. Phil 9. Chris R. My State won-State Lost Melinda...13 Haley.....4 Sanjaya....4 Jordin.....3 Chris......1 Gina.......0 Blake......0 Lakisha...-5 Phil......-7
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 09:45 AM (EST)
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75. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 10:03 AM (EST)Do you think Randy was supposed to have said that the the boys..."that your not the top 3?"....I didn't hear whether he told the divas they were the top 3. I found it odd that they would tell us who the top 3 are...usually they don't do that...and for the record if that is the F3 OMH the ratings will go even lower... Eta: I think this will galvanize the 3 boys' vote bases and will hurt Lakisha the most if they think she is safe. tribey is my American Idol!
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 12:49 PM (EST)
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76. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 12:49 PM (EST)I think you meant Ryan and no he did not tell the divas they were top 3. I was surprised that they pointed out the distinctions too especially since the three girls were top three. I don't think it's a good idea to point it out exactly as you said -- it might galvanize the underdogs. I didn't like Season 3 and the only reason I like this season better is because of Blake. I am not on the Sanjaya bandwagon, but I said to my DH, if Blake gets voted out before Sanjaya, I will totally vote for Sanjaya to win and screw the divas!!
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 01:02 PM (EST)
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77. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
I think Ryan was meant to do that. They usually won't give exact order, or vote totals, but they do sometimes let you know where people were besides the bottom three.My thought was it was do give them that brief "if we aren't the top maybe we are the bottom 3" moment of terror. Jerking the contestants around like that is standard AI stuff. "I am returning this otherwise good typing paper to you because someone has printed gibberish all over it and put your name at the top." - An English Professor
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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04-05-07, 01:19 PM (EST)
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78. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
Here's how he sorta told them:------- Ryan, after saying the songs the diva three sang: " America Voted.... this is where we take a break... ...but not tonight! You are all safe... Take a seat. " As he walks away from divas who are going to their seats:
"Lots of excitement there (the divas)"
Walking past the real bottom three:
" Not so much here (the real bottom 3)" Ryan now walks up to the 3 remaining guys (B/C/S): " you know you are not the top three... ....but you know you are not the bottom three... You are safe, blah blah blah" So by inference he told the divas they were top three (by telling the boys they were middle three).
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 02:48 PM (EST)
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79. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
my question is was he supposed to? bc it was not known to us until he said that that the 3 divas were top 3. Most likely it was scripted but I thought maybe Ryan made a gaffe and then just went with it...
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-05-07, 03:12 PM (EST)
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81. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
thanks zazzy for typing that up.I was trying to remember how it was said, and this is the first season in years I haven't been taping. do you all think it's true? I have a hard time believing lakisha was top 3.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-11-07, 03:37 AM (EST)
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82. "Top 8 DialIdol/VoteFair Results, 3:50 AM" |
DialIdol Score 1-6 (B3) Blake Lewis 11.23 1-8 (B3) Melinda Doolittle 9.53 1-8 (B3) Phil Stacey 9.15 1-8 (B3) Haley Scarnato 8.9 1-8 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar 8.54 1-8 (B3) Chris Richardson 8.2 2-8 (B3) Jordin Sparks 6.76 2-8 (B3) Lakisha Jones 6.45Busy Percentages Blake Lewis 23.74 Melinda Doolittle 22.31 Phil Stacey 19 Sanjaya Malakar 18.3 Chris Richardson 17.34 Haley Scarnato 13.37 Jordin Sparks 12.95 Lakisha Jones 11.82 VoteFair 1. Jordin Sparks 2. Melinda Doolittle 3. Blake Lewis 4. Lakisha Jones 5. Chris Richardson 6. Phil Stacey 7. Haley Scarnato 8. Sanjaya Malakar
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-11-07, 03:40 AM (EST)
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83. "Additional VoteFair Predictions:" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-07 AT 03:41 AM (EST)<quote> Predictions: Based on recent results in this VoteFair poll, and if there are no more mistakes, here are predictions for the elimination sequence:
- The next three elminations will be Phil, Haley, and Chris (Richardson), in no yet-predictable order, except that eliminations tend to alternate between males and females.
- Then (or possibly sooner) Lakisha is likely to be eliminated — for the same reason Mandisa in Season 5 was a surprise elimination: they lack first-choice popularity, and that's all that counts in the official results.
- After Lakisha is eliminated, Sanjaya will be eliminated (assuming he doesn't make a mistake before then). He continues to be promoted on websites and radio shows as "the worst", and therefore worthy of votes, supposedly to make the show more entertaining.
- The final three contestants are likely to be Blake Lewis, Jordin Sparks, and Melinda Doolittle.
- Because of vote-splitting between Jordin and Melinda, the top-two finale will include Blake. Jordin could be the other contestant if she picks up votes from the supporters of similar eliminated contestants.
</end quote>
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cahaya 19891 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-07, 11:21 AM (EST)
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88. "RE: Additional VoteFair Predictions:" |
That's really close to what I'd predict, although it looks like Lakisha's numbers put her in the bottom tier with the other three. There just isn't enough room for 3 divas at this stage.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-07, 07:01 AM (EST)
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84. "RE: Top 8 AOL Tuesday Morning" |
1. Sanjaya 2. Melinda 3. Jordin 4. Haley 5. Phil 6. Blake 7. Chris 8. Lakisha*Note: VFTW may still be bumping Sanjaya up the poll there are postings that they are inflating his numbers at various on-line polls and I don't think they've stopped.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-07, 07:19 AM (EST)
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85. "RE: Top 8 DialIdol GeoPrediction summary" |
Blake is the only one that did not lose a state.
...........Number of States Idol.......Won....Lost...W-L Blake.......14.....0.....14 Melinda.....12.....2.....10 Haley........8.....7......1 Jordin.......1.....2.....-1 Sanjaya......3.....4.....-1 Chris........3.....7.....-4 Phil.........4.....9.....-5 Lakisha......0.....5.....-5 Tie..........0.....9 No Votes.....5.....5 Melinda's support is mostly East of the Mississippi Blake usually just gets high support from the North West, but this time it was all over the place.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-07, 07:33 AM (EST)
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86. "RE: Top 8 Average Ranking " |
Averaged the DI score/% Busy/VF/AOL-am results/W-L statesIt does give the DI a 3 slots, but they look at the data different so here are the straight average
Ave Melinda.....2.00 Blake.......2.40 Jordin......4.50 Sanjaya.....4.70 Haley.......4.80 Phil........5.30 Chris.......5.80 Lakisha.....7.10 I did another calculation where I gave the 3 DI numbers the same weight as AOL and VF and that kept the order the same.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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04-11-07, 09:36 AM (EST)
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87. "RE: Top 8 Average Ranking " |
Thanks you two for providing this data! Could Haley be safe this week? Will Lakisha definately be in the bottom 3?-------- Back to last week for a second--there was a post on idol forums from Ricky that gave a different vote order list and said it was the real vote order than the one that Ryan implied. It said Sanj was in the top 3, Blake was 4th and Lakisha was much lower--the gist was that Ryan only implied the order but by not telling the divas that they were top 3 showed that they separated them for dramatic purposes. And when he went to the three guys, he said "we know you are not the top 3" which was true because if only Sanj was a top 3... Anyway, no way to know if Ricky's list was real or not. It does make you think about how Ryan separated them out and what he did not say--he did not tell M/J/L that they were the top 3. So, watching for Ryan's words tonight.
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kidflash212 5051 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-18-07, 09:40 PM (EST)
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93. "RE: Top 8 Average Ranking " |
I sorta wish they would release the totals from past seasons though - I'd be interested to see how close some eliminations were.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-18-07, 07:13 AM (EST)
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90. "Top 7 Ranking Data" |
Dial Idol Ranking (Only Phil is safe)1. Phil 2. Jordin 3. Chris 4. Melinda 5. Lakisha 6. Blake 7. Sanjaya Dial Idol Busy Percentages 1. Phil 2. Chris 3. Jordin 4. Melinda 5. Blake 6. Sanjaya 7. Lakisha AOL Poll (VFTW did go and vote sanjaya up here) 1. Sanjaya 2. Jordin 3. Melinda 4. Blake 5. Lakisha 6. Chris 7. Phil Vote Fair 1. Jordin 2. Blake 3. Melinda 4. Lakisha 5. Chris 6. Phil 7. Sanjaya Dial Idol Won States minus Lost States 1. Jordin (12) 2. Phil (10) 3. Chris (6) 4. Melinda (2) 5. Blake (1) 6. Lakisha (-8) 7. Sanjaya (-14) AveragesIdol.......... Ave..... W Ave Jordin........ 1.78 ..... 1.67 Melinda....... 3.56 ..... 3.33 Phil.......... 3.63 ..... 4.78 Chris......... 3.93 ..... 4.56 Blake......... 4.30 ..... 3.78 Lakisha....... 5.33 ..... 5.00 Sanjaya....... 5.48 ..... 4.89
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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04-18-07, 09:43 AM (EST)
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91. "RE: Top 7 Ranking Data" |
Sigh. I am preparing myself for Blake in the bottom 2 or even the bottom 2. Too bad his pimp spot came on country week.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-18-07, 08:32 PM (EST)
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92. "RE: Top 7 Ranking Data" |
> Too bad his >pimp spot came on country >week. that sucks severely, yes it does.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-25-07, 07:18 AM (EST)
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94. "Top 6 predictions." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-07 AT 07:18 AM (EST)Dial Idol Scores 1. Jordin (only one predicted safe) 2. Phil 3. Lakisha 4. Blake 5. Melinda 6. Chris. Busy % 1 Jordin 2 Phil 3 Jordin 4 Melinda 5 Blake 6 Lakisha 7 Phil 8 Chris 9 Blake 10 Melinda 11 Lakisha 12 Chris (for my average I averaged the two rankings.) Vote Fair 1 Jordin 2 Melinda 3 Blake 4 Lakisha 5 Phil 6 Chris AOL poll 1 Phil 2 Jordin 3 Melinda 4 Blake 5 Lakisha 6 Chris Dial Idol States Won and Lost (it had a glitch with the two lines so I had to click each state and may not have gotten them all correct. It is easier when they are color coded. Idol........Won...Lost....W-L Jordin.......25.....0....25 Phil..........6.....4.....2 Chris.........2....22...-20 Melinda.......4.....1.....3 Blake.........6.....1.....5 Lakisha.......4....17...-13 Tie...........0.....2 No Votes......3.....3 total.......50.....50 Averages Done straight with all the numbers and Weighted (W) where the three dial idol numbers are reduced in weight so they only count once in the average. Idol.......Ave.....W Ave Jordin.....1.22.....1.33 Phil.......2.81.....2.89 Melinda....3.24.....2.94 Blake......3.31.....3.39 Lakisha....4.59.....4.56 Chris......6.19.....6.11
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Breezy 18380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-25-07, 08:03 AM (EST)
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95. "RE: Top 6 predictions." |
Doesn't look good for Chris. I was hoping Lakisha would be sent packing this week.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-29-07, 02:11 PM (EST)
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96. "RE: Top 6 predictions." |
They fixed the bug in the GeoPredictionsHere are the update numbers. Doesn't change much, but I like having everything done the way dialidol called them rather than me looking at the raw data. That and it's probably more accurate looking at the colors rather than scrolling over each state. ............States Idol.......Won...Lost...W-L Jordin.....26.....0....26 Blake.......7.....1.....6 Melinda.....3.....1.....2 Phil........6.....5.....1 Lakisha.....4....15...-11 Chris.......1....21...-20 Tie.........0.....4 No Votes....3.....3
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-02-07, 06:25 AM (EST)
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97. "Top 6 Take Two predictions." |
We don't know the adding procedure done by AI for this, and not all the polls did it the same way, but we will see what we see.My first take looking at the numbers is that this week didn't change much other than move Blake up a bit and maybe make last week's bottom 2 on the averages even more strongly in the bottom two. That is a first impression, not a solid analysis :} bold = higher than last week ital = lower
Dial Idol Score Range Idol 1--2 Jordin 1--4 Blake 2--6 Phil 2--6 Melinda 3--6 Lakisha 3--6 Chris Dial Idol Busy Percentages (averages the two phone lines) 1. Jordin (1 and 4) 2. Blake (2 and 7) 3. Phil (3 and 9) 4. Melinda (5 and 11) 4. Chris (6 and 10) 6. Lakisha (8 and 12) Vote Fair 1. Blake 2. Melinda 3. Jordin 4. Lakisha 5. Phil 6. Chris AOL poll (VFTW votes heavily to get the worster on top) 1. Phil 2. Jordin 3. Melinda 4. Lakisha 5. Blake 6. Chris Won-Lost states Rank didn't change, got a few more states involved with more votes there was data for more states.bold = higher than last week ital = lower Idol.....Won...Lost...W-L Jordin....26.....0....26 Blake.....13.....1....12 Melinda....3.....3.....0 Phil.......4.....7....-3 Lakisha....2....13...-11 Chris......2....23...-21 Tie........0.....3 No Votes...0.....0 Idol.....Ave.....W Ave Jordin.....1.67.....2.00 (not as solidly in first) Blake.....2.44.....2.67 Phil.......3.19.....3.11 Melinda....3.24.....2.94 Lakisha....4.74.....4.44 Chris......5.72.....5.83
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-09-07, 06:36 AM (EST)
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98. "Top 4 Predictions" |
Dial Idol Score1. Blake 1-2 (just squeaked it out at the end, Jordin was first most of the night) 2. Jordin 1-2 3. Melinda 3-4 4. Lakisha 3-4 FWIW, DialIdol did predict the Daughtry boot last year at this stage of the game. Busy Percentages (averaged the rank of both phone lines) 1 tie Blake and Jordin 3. Lakisha 4. Melinda Vote Fair 1. Jordin 2. Melinda 3. Blake 4. Lakisha AOL 1. Jordin 2. Melinda 3. Lakisha 4. Blake Is it a bad sign the VFTW didn't bother to get Lakisha up to #1 on this poll? They got Phil to the top very quickly after he was picked. Won vs Lost States
Idol.....Won.....Lost.....W-L Jordin.....24.....1.....23 Blake......18.....1.....17 Melinda.....5.....7.....-2 Lakisha.....1....33....-32 Tie.........0.....6 No Votes....2.....2 Averages Idol.....Ave.....W Ave Jordin......1.28.....1.17 Blake.......2.39.....2.83 Melinda.....2.74.....2.44 Lakisha.....3.59.....3.56
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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05-09-07, 03:35 PM (EST)
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99. "RE: Top 4 Predictions" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-09-07 AT 03:39 PM (EST)This leaves a very good possibility that Melinda gets Daughtry'd, which makes this F4 a very good comparison to last season where Blake = Taylor (both male, exciting performers with lacking vocal skills for this point but with a flair that makes them exciting) Jordin = Katharine (most attractive female left with a booming voice who survived an early DI scare or two) Lakisha = Elliot (inexplicably makes the F3 spot after many voting scares, a lack of attractiveness (is that a word?), and a good voice that can be boring) Melinda = Daughtry (uber-pimped vocalist who does not care to try songs out of his/her range, even if he/she can) But since the VFTW pick is Lakisha, she'll probably go, depriving us of the shocker. And by very good possibility, I mean more than 0%
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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