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"Looking down the road from the Top 8"
geekboy 1788 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 04:13 PM (EST)
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"Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
OK, I think it may be a good time to do some prognosticating. Right now we're sitting here with the following top 8:Guys: Sanjaya, Chris, Blake, Phil
Gals: Lakisha, Melinda, Haley, Jordin Lets try to think forward to the "Final Four" since its only 4 weeks down the road. I see it breaking down down like so: Guaranteed slot : Melinda
Probable : Lakisha, Jordin
Possible : Blake, Chris
Not a chance : Haley, Phil
Who the #$%* knows : Sanjaya We've said all along it was a girl's year. Barring the fact that Sanjaya could totally mess up my predictions here, the two question marks for me are Chris and Blake. Which will make the final 4? Could both make it? If so, how far would they go? My prediction RIGHT NOW for the final four would be : Melinda
Lakisha
Jordin
Blake The odds are heavily agaist the guys, assuming the Sanjaya-factor does not play into this. geekboy 
I love puppies! S. Cowell
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 04:31 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
I like this topic, Geekboy!Last year we would have said Chris D would win it all at this point in the season. Recall how the press was getting more and more intense from week to week. Here's what I put in PTTE last week--partly from gut and partly wishful thinking: 1 Blake "Somewhere only we know" 2 Melinda
3 Jordin
4 Sanjaya
What I do see is the pimping machine cranking quite hard for Jordin (see the Nigel's Interviews thread for the latest with Ryan S.). They want us to see her as THE growth story. If AI can have its way then I think the F4 will end up more like this:
1. Jordin 2. Melinda (repeat of AI 3 finale but this time the "Diana" wins) 3. Blake (gets his day in the sun with Clive) 4. Sanj (after lasting past Lakisha, the shocking boot at 5th, America rallies to vote ANYONE and EVERYONE other than Sanj, leaving Howard Stern, VRTW and teens as the only ones to rally for Sanj. Chris R has already been in the bottom 3 and got a pimp spot the week after to lift him up. This week he got a tounge bath pimping from the judges. This carries him only so far imo. He will Ace out of this around 6th or 7th. Haley and Phil can not last much longer imo. They have set up cots in the bottom three ward at this point.
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KoalaChick 509 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 04:51 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
If I were the only one in the world voting, the final four would be:Melinda
Jordin
Blake
Phil I know, I'm in the minority with Phil, but I just love his big voice. I don't worry so much about his looks, have you seen Clay Aiken and Elliot lately? They can fix his looks. But, since I have to let the rest of the world in on the voting process, it will more likely be: Melinda
LaKiKisha
Jordin
Blake I'm beginning to tire of the Sanjaya craze, and hopefully I'm not alone. I just worry that someone like Melinda or Jordin might end up getting Daughtried if people keep focusing on him.
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 04:56 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 05:05 PM (EST)It's tough. I'm almost willing to guarantee the three divas won't make Final 4. The voting base just isn't there and I'm thinking Melinda is the only lock out of the three. This show is not kind to big, black, belting singers. Meaning LaKliche is in trouble. I think Jordin's vote stats also indicate she is in trouble. The Top 3 this week was feasible, but I think it was just for show. I think among the guys, only Blake is nearly a lock for Final Four. Chris Richardson reeks of Ace Young to me, but I think he's more popular than Ace was. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the F4, but I won't put him there if I can help it...but he'll be there. Phil and Haley are unlikely to make it, simply not enough votes...but I think they're both underrated on vote counts. If I HAD to predict a Final Four, only Melinda and Blake are guaranteed spots there. I think I'll give Timberfake a spot, since the judges don't want to let Sanjaya get that far and they'll find some tactic to stop the Stern/Worst Train. Then one of the divas, let's say Jordin. So Blake
Chris R.
Melinda
Jordin However, Chris R. has been "bottom two" once, Jordin's DI data is not encouraging, and Sanjaya always looms. Going week by week, this year's Camille has lasted one week too long, and you can't figure Haley is long for this show unless she comes out in a two-piece. The Final 7 was the week that Jennifer Hudson got eliminated in Season 3, and if it's country week as well...it's lining up for a diva to go home. LaKliche... Final 6 sent Season 3's John Stevens home, which seems like a place where Sanjaya would go. But I think this is where George and John swap spaces, and Phil would go home in this remake of S3. Sanjaya goes home at F5. So that does leave the four I mentioned above, and it seems quite feasible. (Note: To edit in a clean list) 8. Haley Scarnato (Equivilent: Camille Velasco (9th in S3))
7. Lakisha Jones (Equivilent: Jennifer Hudson (7th in S3))
6. Phil Stacey (Equivilent: George Huff (5th in S3))
5. Sanjaya Malakar (Equivilent: John Stevens (6th in S3)) After that, the comparison breaks down. Jordin isn't as good as Latoya or Fantasia, and her placement to me puts her in Latoya's spot with Diana's ability. I just don't see her lasting as long as Diana, as much as I like her. Chris R. would be my Jasmine because he annoys the hell out of me, and third sounds good me. That leaves Blake and Melinda in F2, and if you put Blake as Diana...it fits. 4. Jordin Sparks (Eq: Latoya London (4th in S3))
3. Chris Richardson (Eq: Jasmine Trias (3rd in S3))
2. Blake Lewis (Eq: Diana Degarmo (2nd in S3))
1. Melinda Doolittle (Eq: Fantasia Barrino (1st in S3)) And don't be shocked to see similar sales as well. Additionally, I could see Chris R. being upset around the 5-6 spot with Sanjaya being this year's Jasmine (IMO, a better comparison) and making a run. Additionally, Jordin can go out ANY week, she's treading in Gina territory with votes, or at least she's close (I think she's been skimming the B3 pool).
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 05:33 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 05:35 PM (EST)Fishercat, great analysis, love it, just as I appreciate the detail you put in the who -gets -the- booted -one's -votes -next thread (forgot what I called it, lol). I am working on a new thread--not ready yet--on AI archetypes. You are already thinking along the same lines in many of your comparisons. I would love your thoughts on that thread when I get around to posting it. And I so enjoy the wit on this board! "and you can't figure Haley is long for this show unless she comes out in a two-piece." LOL, whatever it takes. Kat nearly flashed a boob last year in the yellow dress, right?
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 05:52 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
I appreciate the compliments, I love posts like these that can get my mind working on what could be.As an addendum, I personally think this order is similar to how it will end up, but it depends heavily on a Latin-Country week coming up. If country is put off another week, swap Phil (I think he would be strong) and Lakisha (I think she would be weak).
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 06:39 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
Fishercat, I liked all your comparisions and especially considering the theme weeks (I'm going to use that to redo my PTTE!  ). But a thought - I don't think three women will go home in a row (Gina, Haley, Lakisha). I wonder how strong Phil's fan base is - I thought he'd go home this week. And I've suspected that Haley's fan base is bigger that originally thought. I agree Lakisha will be the first diva to go (if country doesn't do her in, Bon Jovi will!). And if Blake doesn't get the pimp spot next week, I will be a little worried about him. Being reminded of the four finalists in Season 3 makes me wonder why I kept watching!
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 06:44 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
Yeah, I noticed that after the post was made and am glad someone else had my concerns validated. The simplest solution there is to switch Phil and Lakisha (say she gets through country week). Then, just my opinion, you have to move Lakisha into the Top 5 IF Top 6 is the "inspirational songs" week, since that looks like something Lakisha could destroy in a good way.
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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 05:31 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
I'm going with zazzy's second list:Melinda
Jordin
Blake
Sanjaya Sanjaya seems like he'll have a longer shelf life than some of the other VFTW choices of the past, cuz he's got the teeny vote, too. I think, like zazzy, that his lasting longer than LaKisha will be this season's "shocking pick". Phil and Haley are just crossing days off the calendar until they're gone, and Chris doesn't have the total approval of the judges like Melinda, Jordin and Blake.
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cahaya 19891 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 07:00 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
That's my list, too.Of the three divas, one's gotta go before the final 4 and that looks like Lakisha (probably out at fifth or sixth) the way Jordin is being pimped. Melinda, of course, is the clear favorite. I agree with some folks here that it's kind of hazy between Blake and Chris, but Blake looks like he's got the edge up to this point. Sanjaya doesn't belong in the top 4 (or top anything else), but he will be there. It'll probably be (it had better be) a question of whether he's the last guy out or not, either 3rd or 4th overall. Maybe I should go change my PTTE at this point, as I had Haley and Phil out already and Sanjaya out ages ago!
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 07:20 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
I'm pretty confident that the top 3 will be Jordin, Melinda and Blake. But who will be #4?Neither Haley nor Phil should make plans past Wednesday. I think Lakisha may get booted before the second one of those two goes. Which leaves Sanjaya and Chris Richardson. I'm expecting that Sanjaya will get booted right after Lakisha, as a result of all the bad press that's going to follow. So I guess Chris Richardson makes the Final Four. Of course, at this stage last year, I would never have picked Elliot to make the Final Four, let alone the Final Three (though I would have picked Taylor, Katharine and Chris).
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 07:51 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
It's not so much the size of Sanjaya's fan base, but rather the votes Melinda steals from Lakisha every week. That, and her falling into the archetype of a Jennifer Hudson or Mandisa, could lead to a relatively early exit.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 08:39 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
Hmmmm...had a new thought. AI may want a certain line-up for their Idol Gives Back show. It is already guest laden, that should draw the viewers. So, they won't really need Sanj by then. Don't know who, if anyone, is the guest coach. Quincy? Bono? Would you want them coaching Sanj? So how do they anti-pimp him in a way that makes people relax the voting? Super-pimp the others? Make voters feel nervous about some favs? Or the usual last minute song clearance issue requiring a song change with scant rehearsal time left? Just hmmmm.
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cahaya 19891 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 08:57 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
Yup, that's it exactly. There just isn't enough room on top for 3 divas, and I don't see Lakisha making it to the final four at the rate she's going. Sanjaya, OTOH, doesn't really have any comp for the kind of voters who are supporting him.
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Breezy 18380 desperate attention whore postings
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04-06-07, 11:33 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
I agree with Ayak and right now I would guess Chris R for the fourth.
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geekboy 1788 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 10:10 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Looking down the road from the Top 8" |
One other thing to think about when plotting the road to the finale is that historically, and i've said this many times, America has voted for someone unique/different/who wouldn't normally get the recording contract on their own terms.* Ruben/Clay
* Fantasia
* Taylor One exception being Carrie, and Kelly in season one is exempt because nobody know what AI was. Looking at our possibilities, and using this as a guide, i do NOT see Jordin winning the whole thing. She is a cookie-cutter example of "teen pop" if there ever was one. Chris R also...don't see it. That leaves, in my opinion, Melinda, Lakisha and Blake as the standout possibilities (again ignoring Sanjaya). * Melinda screams AI winner to me on many levels
* Lakisha in many ways is Fantasia reincarnated for Season 6.
* Blake is just "different/unique" All three distinct possibilities for taking it all, but my money goes on Melinda. geekboy
I love puppies! S. Cowell
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) I can't decide on who I think will end up facing Melinda in the final. I figured on Lakisha for the longest time, but I think she's going to stumble with the voters. Other than that I think its a crapshoot