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ursusminor 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-27-02, 08:30 PM (EST) "Elimination Patterns" Here's my nickel research on the subject... By now, nearly everybody realizes that in TAR1, the first three teams to finish in the first leg were the top three teams at the end of the race. But it gets even better than that! Follow this exercise with me: For each leg of the race, take the top three finishers from among those teams that do not use a fast forward, in other words, disregard the performance of the fast forwarded team for that leg. For all legs, only four teams ever finished in the top two for any leg. Yeah, those four teams. But even when you add third place to be considered, only two more teams show up: Nancy/Emily (twice), and Lenny/Karyn (once). Interesting, no? Now, if the pattern continues for TAR2, the last four teams will be Tara/Will, Cyndi/Russell, Chris/Alex, and Danny/Oswald, not necessarily in that order. The second tier would be Shola/Doyin, Mary/Peach and Gary/Dave. Not inevitable, perhaps, but plausible. If the pattern holds out, then Blake/Paige will be eliminated tonight, as the only team not to finish in the top three (at least behind the FF) at least once.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Elimination Patterns smiles 03-27-02 1    RE: Elimination Patterns ursusminor 03-28-02 2

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smiles 675 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-27-02, 09:36 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Elimination Patterns" I think that is a coincidence. There is only one race to go on. It is definitely too early to tell if a pattern exists.   Top

ursusminor 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-28-02, 07:30 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Elimination Patterns" Sure it's a coincidence. More seriously, I think the teams left are a more evenly matched than the teams left after episode 4 of TAR1. And though it doesn't take much to invent a formula that explains a finite set of observations, the formula is worthless unless it can predict future observations. Of course, with Blake/Paige joining the "second tier" this week and a second tier team being eliminated, the pattern has been bent, but not quite yet broken.   Top

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