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skierdude10 114 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-11-01, 02:28 PM (EST) "New alliances......" The previews have a quick shot of Tina and Liz. if I'm not mistaken, Tina is comforting Liz. Maybe, Jerri said something mean to her and now Tina is comforting her and talking to her about the days of Jerri's Kidz. That may be why Liz says its time for Jerri to leave. Also, I think that Rodger will try to get Keith into the alliance, but Keith will not like Rodger. colby might agree to the alliance to oust Jerri, and that may be why he lies to her. Can anyone even find the link that says Liz said "Don't watch the show." No one even knows where this came from. You can't base anything on it. -skier   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: New alliances...... MDSkinner 03-11-01 1    RE: New alliances...... SurvivinDawg 03-11-01 2  RE: New alliances...... ulalame 03-11-01 3    RE: New alliances...... SurvivinDawg 03-11-01 4        RE: New alliances...... ulalame 03-12-01 6            RE: New alliances...... SurvivinDawg 03-12-01 12                RE: New alliances/Benedict Tina ulalame 03-13-01 15                    RE: New alliances/Benedict Tina SurvivinDawg 03-13-01 17                    RE: New alliances/Benedict Tina samiam 03-13-01 18    RE: New alliances...... janisella 03-11-01 5        RE: New alliances...... Kokoro 03-12-01 7    RE: New alliances...... Kokoro 03-12-01 8        RE: New alliances...... Lurking 03-13-01 14            RE: New alliances...... Kokoro 03-13-01 22        RE: New alliances...... MDSkinner 03-13-01 23    RE: New alliances...... Play2Survive 03-12-01 11        Female alliance AyatollahKhomeini 03-12-01 13  RE: New alliances...... Kokoro 03-12-01 9    Don't watch, friends! AyatollahKhomeini 03-12-01 10        RE: Don't watch, friends! Remy617 03-13-01 16            Elisabeth in Ogakor AyatollahKhomeini 03-13-01 21                RE: Elisabeth in Ogakor PepeLePew13 03-14-01 28  RE: New alliances...... IM_Nessie 03-13-01 19    RE: New alliances...... SurvivinDawg 03-13-01 20        RE: New/old Ogakor alliances...... Outfrontgirl 03-14-01 25            RE: New/old Ogakor alliances...... SurvivinDawg 03-14-01 27                RE: New/old Ogakor alliances...... ulalame 03-14-01 29                    RE: New/old Ogakor alliances...... Outfrontgirl 03-14-01 30  RE: New alliances......You can beli... tribephyl 03-14-01 24    RE: New alliances......You can beli... Annadad 03-14-01 26

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-11-01, 03:03 PM (EST) 1. "RE: New alliances......" To me, Tina and Keith are Kucha's only real chance to make anything other than the next 4 bootees from, the show, and I think you describe that here. Obviously for Kucha to have any shot at all, it will be because some person or people from Ogakor joined there voting block. There is a lot of discussion about Jerri/Amber going over to the Kucha side and black widowing Colby, but I am not so sure just yet. I think that the defectors(if there are any) are just as likely to be Tina and Keith as Jerri and Amber. Though I have to say that until something weird happens or some miraculous proof shows up, I will have to go with a Kucha boottee.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-01, 03:22 PM (EST) 2. "RE: New alliances......" You make good sense with your comments. Defectors could be K/T or J/A or BOTH. I don't see it happening yet, though. I see Alicia being gone in the next two weeks. If she wins immunity the first time, Nick goes. If she wins immunity again, then Lis goes, then Rodger (or vice versa). They'll get her out of there before the alliance breaks up. Can Alicia win 4 straight ICs? But once she's gone, then the fun begins. The alliances appear to look like this: 1) Keith/Tina 2) Lis/Rodger 3) Jerri/Amber 4) Colby 5) Nick a) K/T will have a pull on Rodger. b) J/A will pull on Lis. c) Nick's only hope is to get Colby's help. d) Colby has a lot of pull, but he also has the albatross on his neck. So I suggest he works hard to keep the Ogakor alliance going until Lis or Rodger can be dispensed with. Then he can throw his weight either to K/T or J/A and decide if the Youth Movement or the Middle Agers win. All-in-all, Colby has to play both ends and play the game hard. I don't see him pulling it off to the Final 3.   Top

ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-11-01, 04:09 PM (EST) 3. "RE: New alliances......" In Jeff's video clip on the CBS website, when he is discussing how he thinks the game will be played after the merger, he refers to the potential for a women's alliance, even though he doesn't think the Kucha girls would go for it. He also says he doesn't think something like that would happen until later in the game. Given that both Keith and Colby have votes against them, and given how important former votes have been this season, I think it is possible that Jerri could attempt to form a women's alliance, both to get rid of the Ogakor men who have a lot of votes against them, and also because she knows that if it gets down to a final five of Colby/Keith/Tina/Amber and herself, she will be the first one out. So, she needs to find a way to guarantee herself more longevity, and a women's alliance could do it. Here's my thinking: In episodes 8 and 9, the teams continue to vote along tribal lines. In epi 8, Nick is voted out by the Ogawhores. At some point during episodes 8 and 9, Jerri gets to talking to Alicia, because she wants to find a way to take out Keith and Colby. Knowing that Elizabeth won't vote against Roger, the most likely person Jerri would approach would be Alicia. Then, in Episode 9, the Ogi alliance votes out Roger. With Roger gone, Elizabeth is in deep ##### unless she joins Alicia and the Ogi girls (Jerri, Amber and Tina) in an alliance. Then, in Episodes 10 and 11, Colby and Keith are taken out, leaving the women as the final 5. The only flaw I see with this are that I am not sure Tina would betray Keith. But then again, I think she is devious enough to do what she needs to to get ahead in the game, and I don't think that Colby/Tina/Keith could get together enough of an alliance on their own from the remaining Kuchas to take out Jerri/Amber.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-01, 04:52 PM (EST) 4. "RE: New alliances......" Oh, your thinking is VERY good, Ulalame (is that a hawaiian name, btw?). The ONLY thing that might be a problem is that I am sure Colby/Keith and likely Tina will insist on Alicia being the next target (and Colby doing so as part of a secret alliance with Nick. Although Nick needs Colby more, Colby needs Nick also). If Alicia wins immunity, your good theory holds. But if not, then Alicia will be gone next. As to Tina betraying Keith, I am sure she would do so in a heartbeat if it helps her. Remember how Keith had to BEG her to step off that post in the last IC? Despite it being most very good for her survival as well as Ogakor's and Keith's for her to step down, she said it (stepping down) was the hardest thing she'd ever done. Tina is looking out for Number One.   Top

ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-12-01, 02:39 PM (EST) 6. "RE: New alliances......" Yeah, for the girl alliance to work, Alicia will have to get immunity, perhaps in both episodes 8 and 9. If she gets immunity in 8, I think that clearly the Ogawhores will vote for Nick. Episode 9 then presents an interesting dilemma -- If Alicia once again gets immunity, and the Ogawhores continue to vote as a block, then either Roger or Liz are dead (and I am guessing it will be Roger). If that's the way it goes, then the girl's alliance is likely a done deal, right into the final 5. However, if Alicia gets immunity, it is also possible that Colby and Keith will see the writing on the wall, and will try to ally themselves with Roger/Elizabeth, which would force another tie vote (Alicia, Jerri, Amber, Tina v. the other four). In this case, the girls would be much better off voting for Colby rather than Roger, because the other four would I am sure target Jerri with her two prior votes. Colby with his 5 votes would be outta there. Ulalame (it's from a poem by E. A. Poe).   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-01, 06:54 PM (EST) 12. "RE: New alliances......" LAST EDITED ON 03-12-01 AT 07:10 PM (EST) I do now see a chink in this: How does one get Tina to vote WITH Jerri (whom she detests) and against Keith and Colby (who she appears to like more)? Well, it'll have to work something like this: Alicia/Elisabeth/Amber/Jerri vote for Colby and Tina/Colby/Keith/Rodger vote for Jerri. Colby's five votes are killer. Rodger could vote with the women, making that moot. Now the girls approach Tina (likely Amber and Alicia) and invite her to help them vote out Rodger. Alicia/Amber/Jerri/Tina vs Elisabeth/Rodger/Keith. Bye, Rodger. If Tina doesn't go for it, Alicia/Amber/Lis/Jerri kick out Tina (Lis does this to protect Rodger). Hole in theory here: 3 Kuchas vs 3 Ogakor and Jerri has votes. Repair for the hole!! : Lis "black widows" Rodger! Either Tina or Lis is broken to Jerri's fist (to use falcon terminology). The next to go is Keith or Rodger (Tina voting with Keith, Lis with Rodger. That leaves Alicia/Amber/Jerri/Lis/Tina and your all-girl finale. Edit: Might as well go all the way (assuming Source Code Theory is true, also): Jerri (or Tina) convinces the other Ogies to kick out Alicia next and keep the Ogie numbers up. Tina goes along (or has manipulated Jerri). That leaves Amber/Jerri/Tina/Lis Then Tina plays her ultimate trump card: She and Lis turn and vote against Jerri! Guess who has a ton of previous votes by now. J.R. is shot again! That leaves Amber/Tina/Lis. Lis wins immunity. So much for Benedict Tina.   Top

ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-13-01, 03:29 PM (EST) 15. "RE: New alliances/Benedict Tina" Remember in the episode where Tina voted against Maddog, she said to the camera something to the effect that she was honoring a promise made early on in the game. This leads me to the thought that, even though Tina has been edited to appear to "hate" Jerri, perhaps she and Jerri have had a pact since the beginning. Granted, her vote for Jerri's lapdog Mitchell does undercut this, but perhaps she was swayed by Colby's belief that if they didn't lose the weak link, the whole Ogawhore tribe would go down. Remember, they haven't shown us much regarding the Oga's strategizing.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-01, 04:23 PM (EST) 17. "RE: New alliances/Benedict Tina" I only vaguely recall what Tina said in the Mad Dog vote. If I recall (and I'm not referencing any notes right now, so be gentle if I'm wrong), Keith voted for Mitchell that episode and Maralyn voted for Jerri. So maybe Tina's promise was to Mitchell. By the next TC, however, Tina and Keith were absolutely sick of Jerri. Tina said that her vote (for Mitchell) was not her originally intended vote but that a new plan had formed on the way to TC. So let's assume that Tina was going to vote for Jerri, but Keith convinced Colby to vote for Mitchell and got Tina to go along. Mitchell really reacted to the votes for him, he was totally blindsided.   Top

samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-01, 04:29 PM (EST) 18. "RE: New alliances/Benedict Tina" Mitchell said in one of his post-boot interviews that he, Jerri, Amber, Colby, and Tina made a pact while walking to camp on the first day. Which told me that Jerri can make a good first impression when she wants to, and in doing so would make sure she was not the first voted off after merger. I agree that they sacrificed Mitchell because it would have been stupid to not do so, and getting Keith's vote was one of convenience and strategy and not part of any real new "alliance" between he and Tina, or between he and Colby. I think the old alliance may still be in effect...watch for Keith to be the odd one out...even Jeff said that it was obvious to him by Keith's actions in camp that he probably had votes against him...and that he wanted to change Kucha's vote to Keith but the IC prevented them from doing that. I think anybody who doesn't think I'm smart enough to handle the job is underestimating. -- George W. Bush   Top

janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-11-01, 05:03 PM (EST) 5. "RE: New alliances......" I alluded to this possibility in my posting under "sex" only I see Elisabeth as the one that may be reluctant. It's possible the other four women already planned this and they're pretending to stay tribe loyal until the men from Kuch are all gone. I don't think Tina would hesitate for a minute to abandon Keith if she thinks it will guarantee her the final four. It would definitely make for interesting tv, although I'm sticking with Kucha going down the next for TCs unless I see evidence otherwise. J.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-12-01, 04:58 PM (EST) 7. "RE: New alliances......" <<I don't think Tina would hesitate for a minute to abandon Keith if she thinks it will guarantee her the final four>> Yep, Keith will be Tina's 3rd victim....~never~ trust that girl. Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-12-01, 05:03 PM (EST) 8. "RE: New alliances......" <<In epi 8, Nick is voted out by the Ogawhores.>> No way....If Alicia does win immunity then it's going to be Liz....but I doubt it. You can't just look at the strongest, you have to look at the editing. Before a person gets kicked, they'll have at least a couple episodes with them as major players. Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.   Top

Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-13-01, 06:01 AM (EST) 14. "RE: New alliances......" >Before a person gets kicked, >they'll have at least a >couple episodes with them as >major players. Kel!   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-13-01, 08:29 PM (EST) 22. "RE: New alliances......" Kel was the 2nd voted off (and everyone knew anyway)....Nick will have been there for 3 weeks.... Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-13-01, 10:16 PM (EST) 23. "RE: New alliances......" I disagree. I think that at this point in the game a player will be voted off when they have had at least one episode where they were a major player, and I think that the current episode could be that one. I don't think that the reason that you give holds any sort of substantial evidence to say that Nick is safe. For all we know, he could be featured and dropped in this next episode. At this point I think that the only thing that we all feel comfortable with is that it will be a Kucha member. Nick, Alicia, Liz or Rodger are all fair game at this point, and it seems more likely that Nick and Alicia would be the first to go because of there physical ability. Air time is meaningful, but at this time we have seen them all enough that if they are given a lot of air time this week they could definitely be gone.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-12-01, 06:46 PM (EST) 11. "RE: New alliances......" I think we are giving Elizabeth's loyalty way too much credit here. If her options are to roll over and die to an Ogakor sweep, or join forces with Jerri/Amber and in turn betray Rodger, well, she will gladly let Rodger go. I posted a thread that suggested the possibility of a female alliance - but it wasn't taken too seriously on this board. A lot of pieces fit together for me with this theory, so if we see hints of it in E8 - especially if a male leaves the show - I will bring it up again.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-12-01, 07:04 PM (EST) 13. "Female alliance" My problem with a female alliance is that I don't believe Tina has any incentive to join. I think Tina will go farther with Ogakor than with a female alliance, because I don't think Colby will reenlist in the Jerricorps now that his tribe is winning. In fact, I'd be very surprised if Colby doesn't look upon his decision to break with Jerri's voting strategy in E4 as "brilliant" and the key to Ogakor's later success.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-12-01, 05:07 PM (EST) 9. "RE: New alliances......" LAST EDITED ON 03-12-01 AT 06:00 PM (EST) <<Can anyone even find the link that says Liz said "Don't watch the show." No one even knows where this came from. You can't base anything on it.>> Most people don't really take it as much of a spoiler. I'm almost sure that it originated from the SS spoiler boards, but SS has completely deleted that forum and all the messages in it. EDIT: Heyyy I didn't notice it was back....but the old stuff is still gone. Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-12-01, 06:10 PM (EST) 10. "Don't watch, friends!" LAST EDITED ON 03-12-01 AT 07:13 PM (EST) I remember where this "spoiler" came from on the ss.com boards --some poster whose friend (or maybe it was a relative) supposedly used to work with Lizliz said that, according to his/her friend/relative, Lizliz was telling her friends not to watch. No reason was given as to why Lizliz would have said this. The same poster gave us details about a supposed Lizliz job interview. I would give this "spoiler" approximately no weight as a clue to game outcome. Edited to add: Kokoro, you're right -- the ss.com DCForum spoiler board is back up. I see ss.com is also taking credit for the "source code" spoiler. Could that be why they revived their board? I made a post over there just to prove that my ID still works. But I'm staying here; I know where I'm not wanted.   Top

Remy617 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-13-01, 04:05 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Don't watch, friends!" Still, AK, would it not make sense that Liz would want alliances with the majority Ogas? Could a "friendship" with Tina, not be the way to do this? Through Tina, she makes friends with Colby, Keith and Amber (I don't think Jerri make "firends"). I also believe that when it comes down to cutting time, Liz will turn on sweet old Rodget in a blue-streak-heart-beat.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-13-01, 05:49 PM (EST) 21. "Elisabeth in Ogakor" No question, Remy617, that Lis wants to make friends among the Ogres -- she didn't come this far to lose. And Lis probably knows that Colleen blew her opportunity to turn things around by not focusing on recruiting Kelly quickly enough. She won't repeat Colleen's mistake. I agree that she would join an alliance to vote Rodger off as quickly as any other alliance if it would keep her from suffering a Pagong-like fate. But I have a hard time believing that "Jerri is the devil," as people here have said. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Tina and Keith aren't the ones who broach the idea to Lis about voting Jerri off out of turn. If Lislis thought it could help her survive, she would tell Jerri about this as quickly as Alicia told Jeff about Debb. If she didn't, she'd go along with Tina and Keith. But it still DOESN'T MATTER FOR THIS WEEK, because no Ogre can afford to defect yet.   Top

PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-14-01, 09:18 AM (EST) 28. "RE: Elisabeth in Ogakor" Oh there's no question in my mind that Lizliz is now angling for an alliance to save her butt and she's now ready to break ranks (and hearts) -- she said in the Canadian preview "to keep playing this game, you've got to become a little ruthless sometimes" and that tells me she's going to become a leader-type and a rabblerouser, won't hesitate to turn on Rodger or Alicia if she has to. The likes of Colby, Tina and Keith may decide they'd rather have Lizliz around than to have Jerri in their group as the numbers dwindle - tribe allegiances be damned. So, it depends on what happens between Lizliz and Jerri in this episode (i.e. does Jerri show her true colours instead of acting nice-nice a few days longer with the new tribe?), whether there's any foretelling that Jerri might be out with a 5-3 Ogie lead. Keith's disgust for Jerri may rule the day and overpower any tribal allegiances once they know they still have the 5-3 (or 5-2) majority.   Top

IM_Nessie 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-13-01, 05:27 PM (EST) 19. "RE: New alliances......" There will be no new alliances until all of Kucha is gone. That's the only strategy that makes any sense! It's fast, it's easy and when Kucha's gone, the Ogakor's are left with known entities - each other. That's where it gets interesting again. The Powers that Be want people to believe that there will be "a crack in the alliance" because that's the only way they can build suspense over the next couple of episodes.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-01, 05:44 PM (EST) 20. "RE: New alliances......" Hi Nessie, and welcome to the Board. I must respectfully disagree with you that picking off the Kuchas is the ONLY strategy that makes sense. The reason is Jerri. Jerri is very vunerable with 2 previous votes and she knows that some of her fellow Ogakors do not like her. Keith has stated on-camera that he would rather make sure that Jerri does not win the million dollars than win it himself. Tina has expressed more than a little irritation with Jerri on occasion. Jerri also does not feel that Colby is loyal to her. For these reasons, once this next Kucha (Alicia or Nick) is gone, then Jerri will try forming alliances. I have predicted in another thread that if Alicia goes, Jerri is toast if she doesn't win immunity after immunity because Jerri will be unable to form any alliances. If Alicia remains, however, the Kucha women and Jerri and Amber could and might form an all-Female alliance. I agree with you on this much, stated in a slightly different way: The former Ogakors must retain superior numbers no matter what. If it gets to a tie that is 3-3 or 4-4, Ogakor is toast. Likely 2-2 would not be good for Okagor, but it would depend on who the 2 and 2 are.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-14-01, 04:10 AM (EST) 25. "RE: New/old Ogakor alliances......" Thoughts on old and perhaps-to-be-revived Ogakor alliance: Sorry if this is a nonsequitur to this stage of this thread, but I want to backtrack from Lis to respond to an earlier posting that mentioned Tina's intent to vote for Jerri in the 3rd TC, before switching to sacrificial Mitchell on the hike up. I just rewatched the end of that episode, and it's very clear in retrospect that Jerri, Amber, Mitchell, Tina, and Colby were part of an alliance that had previously voted unanimously and were supposed to carry on in that vein and vote out Keith--5-1. Tina said, before she left camp, that "he" hadn't packed and had no idea he was going, and Colby said there was a group choice for a bootee (dictated by Jerri, I'm sure) that made him unhappy, because he wanted a strong team and foresaw that the target was and would be a strong asset to Ogakor--clearly Keith. Jerri was in no danger at any time that night. Colby did not say he wasn't playing along at that point; he was disgruntled because he saw it going down and was feeling forced into a vote that would contribute to his own demise via team defeat. It says a lot for Colby that on the way there he came up with an alternative that successfully worked on Tina's feeling that the weak should go and recruited the "target" to pull it off. We don't know if Keith realized that Colby and Tina had agreed to vote him off; they may have just proposed Mitchell to him. Keith had already voted for Mitchell last time; in all likelihood not one of them planned to vote against Jerri that week. The switch was not from Jerri but from 5-1 to 3-3. And--C/T didn't even need to tell Jerri and Amber the new plan, because they anticipated the tiebreaker and knew the rule. One can see, on re-viewing, that Mitchell and Keith seem well aware of the tie-breaker rule before Probst announces it for benefit of audience. Keith shows no tension when the deadlock is announced, whereas Mitchell immediatley gets the "Jeff" look ("I know what's coming; out with my torch"). I think past evidence shows there was an early alliance of 5 and Keith was the one outsider left, saved (in a last minute pact made for that one vote) not because Tina and Colby had switched to a new alliance, but because they knew Mitchell was weak. They simply didn't want to go to 4 TC's in a row. Plus, Mitchell himself wanted out. Tina even sort of ran it by him and appealed to his team spirit. As for Tina alienating Jerri/Amber, she may well have told them afterwards that "the alliance is still on, but Mitchell wanted to go home. Look, I made it easy for you. You, Jerri, got to keep your promise to Mitchell, but the tiebreaker we all knew about ensured the results. You don't like Keith, but we need him for now, however we girls are still on to the end once we get past the merger and get a majority." Something like that. Back to the upcoming backstabbing--I agree that Colby "seems" to have progressively and genuinely burned out on Jerri/Amber, but if he thought Keith was so strong before, he must see him as a threat to be removed as soon as Ogakor can safely vote off an Ogakor, and he might like being the last guy because Colby thinks he can beat the girls for immunity (not sure he's right). I don't think Tina likes Jerri one bit--but she could well still be part of a female Ogie alliance. When Colby offered Jerri to stick with her and Amber (but not Tina), Jerri didn't accept. At the time, I thought she was pissed because Colby wanted to keep Keith to the merger, but she may also have objected because the offer meant she and Amber, to join with Colby, had to boot Tina, and there was a promise to be honored. Yeah, everyone hates Jerri, but she, Kel, and Maralyn are the 3 Ogies who've honored their voting promises. Right now, the Ogakor women are one up on the men, and Tina surely thinks she can beat Jerri and Amber for immunity. Plus, Tina's "so nice," and she really hasn't technically betrayed anyone...the jury will pick her and blame Jerri and her puppy. So, conclusion to this spec--Keith probably thinks he and Tina have an alliance (based on age and disgust with Jerri), but it's likely always been illusory. Tina's out to be No. 1 as much as Colby, but she may still have an agreement with Jerri and Amber that dates back to the beginning and was never really breached. Colby may never have had that swing vote we thought he had. Response? (Constructive please, cuz my feelings wound easily...no, I'm not Lis in disguise). Always a chance my logic will hold true until it's blown completely apart shortly after 8pm tomorrow...   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-14-01, 08:03 AM (EST) 27. "RE: New/old Ogakor alliances......" I must disagree with large portions of Outfrontgirl's commentary. Nothing personal, Outfront girl. I refer everyone to Jerri's comments at the earlier TC where she named her buddies as Amber, Colby and Mitchell. Tina was left out of that mix, indicating to her that Jerri did not consider Tina to be part of that Alliance. Whether or not Tina was really a part of it or Jerri was playing her is not clear, but it doesn't matter. The second Jerri's remark (described by her as "pompous", described by me as "darn stupid") came out of her mouth, Tina became cemented to "the other side". She still voted for Mad Dog, but from that moment on, Tina was on Keith side, either de facto or through expressed discussion with Keith. So, I do not think that Tina was going to vote for Keith. I think Jerri believed that she had a 4-2 vote to oust Keith, then Tina would follow if Ogakor lost another immunity. I think Tina was going to vote for Jerri knowing it was worthless except to make Jerri vulnerable later. Imagine her and Keith's surprise and delight when Colby indicated to them that he was NOT in the Jerricorps and so they quickly agreed to remove Mitchell. I don't think Tina needed to explain anything to Jerri to assuage "alienating" J/A. And I don't think Tina tried to explain anything. Jerri knew she was vulnerable and down in numbers from that point. COLBY (not Tina) was the one who turned on Jerri. Jerri probably passed Tina's feelings off to Jerri's "pompous" remark at the previous TC, but Jerri knows that Tina could be turned back to the "Dark Side" of J/A. Maybe I'm wrong, but didn't Colby's offer to Jerri of C/J/A all the way occur BEFORE Mitchell was booted? If so, then Jerri was being loyal to Mitchell, not Tina. If I'm wrong, that's fine, but I still don't believe Jerri refused Colby's offer because of any loyalty to Tina. I do think Jerri has been thinking of a Female Alliance -- but AFTER the merger, not before. I agree that Keith should not fully trust Tina or consider her to be in his pocket Alliance-wise. Tina is in the game for herself. Some of our Spoilers are calling her "Benedict Tina" and for good reason.   Top

ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-14-01, 02:27 PM (EST) 29. "RE: New/old Ogakor alliances......" Once again, I think it is all in the editing. We don't know what went on that lead to Jerri's comment, "these are my friends." It could be that Jerri and Tina were trying to throw the others off on the fact that they were allied. I think Tina is another Sean -- I mean, obviously he was part of the Tagi alliance, they just edited to make it seem like he was not. I still think that Tina's slip in Episode three when apologizing to Maddog, stating she had to honor a promise made earlier in the game is a key to where Tina's alliance lies.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-14-01, 05:15 PM (EST) 30. "RE: New/old Ogakor alliances......" Thanks for respectful response. I'm not attached to any of my speculation and I'm well aware that things change. There is solid evidence, though, that Tina had agreed with Jerri's faction to vote for Keith before switching to Mitchell, so I'm going to go ahead and repeat the actual wording. In Ogakor camp before hike to TC, tight shot of Colby and Tina. Mitchell speaks but is off camera. Colby says in barely audible voice "HE doesn't know he's going tonight. Mitchell's voice says, "Really?" Tina says "HE didn't take his fleece or his jacket." Shot of Keith hanging up his jacket and leaving it. That's editing, but Keith's the only male in the tribe outside the conversation. Mitchell has just told camera he's relieved Keith's going tonight, so he's confident that Colby and/or Tina will provide the necessary majority. The above conversation shows that Mitchell,Tina,and Colby were agreed about a male bootee, Keith, and we know Jerri and Amber were voting for Keith. Then Colby tells camera he disagrees with the way in which "the union" is voting that night, because the person is a "huge asset" to the team. Tina was on the inside of the union vote. Keith says to camera he wants to challenge Jerri's leadership and present his ideas about voting to the tribe. He doesn't say he intends to vote for Jerri. He already had voted for Mitchell. Tina states while voting she changed her vote so as not to keep the weakest member. Clearly, Tina and Colby wanted to keep Keith's strength and that outweighed the "union" position foisted on them by Jerri, but there was no evidence that anyone planned to vote for Jerri, no matter how they felt about her. The future dilemma, averted by Kucha's loss, was what to do next vote if they still needed Keith for an IC before merge. They could only vote off one of their original alliance. It could have been that Colby and Tina wanted to off Amber as the next weakest person (she was the one who talked about battling for Colby's vote), and that Jerri was fighting for Amber and bullheadedly trying to persuade Colby to oust Keith. But the crisis never happened. I do remember that, at the previous TC, Jerri left Tina out of the group of people she had bonded with, but I agree with Ulalame that could have been purposeful. Does anyone believe these shrewd players (I exclude Mad Dog from that) are off guard and babbling candidly when Probst asks his little questions at TC? Would Jerri just slip and inadvertently alienate Tina? Doubtful. Tina didn't want Mad Dog to know she was voting for her and she would have been happy to be left off the list of chums who were about to boot her friend, even though Tina was voting with Jerri et al as she had "promised." Tina would have been relieved, not insulted. I don't believe Tina is wedded to anything but what will help her win. My point is simply that Tina was a member of the Jerri union even when Jerri's comment led us to think she wasn't. I'll be interested to see if M.B. has misled us about their dissension so that we'll be surprised when Tina and Jerri align their votes in the future. Lastly, if Tina had a firm sub-alliance with Keith, why did he have had to ask (practically beg) her to step off the perch? Wouldn't her bowing out at the end have been understood? He had to argue it was for the team's self-interest. I think Keith's remained on the outside, and only his work "for the team" has kept him around and at some point that will end. Keith's the one who needs help from Kuchans, but I don't know if he has the people skills to recruit them either. I'm sorry, because I respect Keith's integrity. Like Kel, he has the misfortune of sucking at kissing up, and so does Colby for that matter. It sucks that that matters in this game, as in the world, but...that's reality (TV).   Top

tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-14-01, 01:48 AM (EST) 24. "RE: New alliances......You can believe it..........!" Anyone who says that trying to form a new alliance is stupid...is well,....stupid. It's already started. Nick IS the mole.Him and Colby had way too much time together on the beach(lucky for them no one really thought they were talkin')after last weeks challenge.Colby reaffirmed his intention to vote for the person with the most votes.(yes Kimmi said something but Nick clinched the vote,for Colby)Bye Jeff! Now ... all kuchas should be feeling the need to fit themselves into the rest of the Oga's.With Liz's admition of a crack in the alliance, she begins her futile attempt at staying on. I believe that this all starts after the RC challenge,which from the promos looks to be a boomerang toss.If for no other reason then that Alicia has and will be seen throwing a boomerang(in her audition tape for one)Now this is the big stretch...but does anyone remember in SI Sean bringing Rich to breakfast, I see this kinda thing with Alicia and...Keith(notice they are both missing from the campfire Meat-on-a-stick pic's from CBS site) This absolutely sends everyone from Kucha into a re-aligning frenzy('cept Nick who did it early) Also Source code theory is Definately a red herring+ and I distinctly remember Colby trying to reassure Jerri that "He wouldn't be losing any sleep over "it",don't worry Jerri."MY firm theory is that Liz is not only the first noticeable refugee but because of "Politics" she is voted off the island..She's so nice it's so sad...NOT.   Top

Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-14-01, 07:13 AM (EST) 26. "RE: New alliances......You can believe it..........!" I'm not sure I understand your proof that Nick is a mole who has entered into a complicated and clandestine plot with Colby to betray all the Kuchas. I don't think the simple fact that they were on the beach together for a few hours before others joined them after dropping out of the "Perch" IC is proof of anything. To assume they cooked up some elaborate scheme is just that, an assumption.   Top

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