OK, another week, another week without any real spoilers (maybe we should just rename this board 'Survivor Speculation')What to do, what to do...first -- which tribe is going to lose someone tonight. Well, yes, they are technically one tribe now, but we're betting that Kucha votes as a unified block. After 18 days of talking, Ogakor will finally get it's chance to "merge even." Now, finally having gotten their goal, you'd think these folks would set aside all their differences and also vote as a unified tribe, but with this tribe, who knows. Given the internal Ogakor strife, it tilts the odds in Kucha's favor and so we're predicting the boot of a former Ogakor.
For the remaining "both tribes vote unified" scenario, then -- based on Episode 4 -- it would seem to fall back to a tiebreaker of who has received the most previous council votes between the two survivors that have been targeted. In that case, Kucha would seem to have the advantage since Jeff is their only remaining member with previous votes -- having been targeted by both Kimmi and Debb during the councils that voted them off. Ogakor on the other hand has both Jerri (2 votes) and Keith (3 votes) having had received previous votes. What happens if Jerri and Jeff both receive 5 votes -- who knows, it could be a challenge is held between them, it could be Burnett makes both tribes keep re-voting all night until one of the remaining 8 survivors changes their vote. ...in either case, I see Jerri losing that situation
Now I know everyone says Jerri can't go -- her storyline is so big, yadda, yadda, yadda... well, I think the opposite argument can be made. Jerri's story really began in episode 2 -- when Ogakor began it's three episode losing streak -- given that, it only made sense for Burnett to focus in on her since she was the center of the internal Ogakor dynamics. Additionally, Kucha didn't go to council for TWELVE DAYS -- so other than pig hunting and Kimmi the Veggi, there likely wasn't much internal strife in Kucha to show even if Burnett wanted.
Much like folks claimed "Kimmi storyline had run it's course" -- I believe the same can be said for Jerri. Her alliance was broken -- the puppetmaster is no more, and with the merger the will-he-or-won't-he battle for Colby's vote is now a mute point. The important difference with Rich's alliance is that it never was so small so early in the game -- and members of his own tribe didn't have anywhere near the level of contempt for Rich as Ogakor members appear to have for Jerri. Let's not forget Keith's comment that voting Jerri out is now his #1 goal -- and whether this changes with the merger is unknown. And re: the argument that "Jerri is the star" -- well, the same could be said for Michael prior to last week. Act One of the series has closed, and with it comes new storylines and stars (remember Greg's departure and Colleen's emergence?) -- though who or what they are however, who knows...
Let's also not forget Michael's comment re: Keith, that, although they never met in the game, he had heard good things about him from the other Kucha. If the other Kucha had voted Keith out immediately after the merger, would the Kucha "make good comments" about him -- why bother? ...if Keith didn't have some special connection to Kucha, why would Mike mention anything at all (saying they never met in the game would certainly have been a sufficient response.) So if you buy into both the above, then you have to think that Keith figures maybe the "guarantee" of a Top 6 finish is good enough for now -- and it gives him 12 days to buddy up to Kucha, maybe even give that whole don't-vote-off-the-cook strategy another shot with the new tribe -- and in the worst case roll the immunity challenge dice after that. Remember -- even if Ogakor votes unified and manages to get all five of themselves into the Top 5, Keith's chances of going further aren't likely to be very good. At that point the strongest remaining players would likely be targeted, with Jerri and Amber likely voting for him, and Colby also voting for him since Colby isn't likely to vote for himself! So if you think about it as no matter whether it is Top 5 or Top 6, he's in trouble either way, an early defection by Keith would seem to make some sense. Additionally, I think the Ep7 promos running that mention Jeff commenting about Colby and Keith are perhaps an attempt to sway our opinions toward Kucha targeting one of the two this evening.
So in our opinion, Keith isn't going tonight (with all due apologies to CJ and AK -- but hey, it's not like we've been correct on our primary picks lately)
With Keith out, we're picking Jerri -- in our opinion her story is just about over, Colby now runs that group. ...and let's not forget Kimmi got the boot in Kucha's last vote due to not fitting in -- and no one fits in less than Jerri.
As our alternate pick, we'll go with Colby -- big physical folks are a prime target at this point in the game, and if it isn't Jerri that Kucha goes after, unless he wins immunity Colby would seem to be a prime Kucha target.
-SB
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