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"S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 10:28 AM (EST)
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"S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""

As tweeted by Survivor Phoenix: Redemption Island E13 Title: "Too Close for Comfort" - Airs Wednesday, May 11, 8 p.m. EDT

Please place all misdirection clues and discussion here...


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... kiki_k 05-05-11 1
 RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Suvavah 05-05-11 2
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Flowerpower 05-05-11 14
 RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... SquidProQuo 05-05-11 3
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... emydi 05-05-11 4
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... kiki_k 05-05-11 6
           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Brownroach 05-05-11 13
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... SquidProQuo 05-05-11 5
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... kiki_k 05-05-11 7
           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... SquidProQuo 05-05-11 9
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... PepeLePew13 05-05-11 8
           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... SquidProQuo 05-05-11 10
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... tribephyl 05-05-11 11
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Brownroach 05-05-11 12
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Outfrontgirl 05-06-11 21
           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... kiki_k 05-06-11 23
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... dabo 05-06-11 22
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... parathor 05-09-11 43
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... parathor 05-10-11 49
 RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... samboohoo 05-05-11 15
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Flowerpower 05-05-11 16
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Brownroach 05-06-11 17
           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Flowerpower 05-06-11 18
               RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... CTgirl 05-06-11 19
                   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... kingfish 05-06-11 20
                       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Outfrontgirl 05-07-11 24
                           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... CTgirl 05-07-11 25
                               RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Outfrontgirl 05-07-11 26
                                   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... parathor 05-08-11 34
                           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... tribephyl 05-07-11 27
                               RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Round Robin 05-08-11 28
                                   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... tribephyl 05-08-11 29
                               RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... kiki_k 05-08-11 30
                                   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Outfrontgirl 05-08-11 31
                                       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... emydi 05-09-11 41
                                       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... dabo 05-09-11 42
 RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Outfrontgirl 05-08-11 32
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Flowerpower 05-08-11 33
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Krautboy 05-08-11 35
           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... PepeLePew13 05-08-11 36
               RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... michel 05-08-11 37
                   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... PepeLePew13 05-09-11 39
           Possible Ashley wins the IC... Flowerpower 05-09-11 38
               RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC... michel 05-09-11 40
                   RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC... Brownroach 05-09-11 44
               RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC... Outfrontgirl 05-09-11 45
                   RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC... Flowerpower 05-09-11 46
                       RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC... kiki_k 05-09-11 48
                           RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC... PepeLePew13 05-10-11 51
 RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Outfrontgirl 05-09-11 47
   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... pezzu 05-10-11 50
       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... Flowerpower 05-10-11 52
           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... parathor 05-10-11 53
               RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... michel 05-10-11 54
                   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... 5cats 05-10-11 55
                       RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... parathor 05-10-11 56
                           RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... 5cats 05-11-11 57
                               RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... dabo 05-11-11 58
                                   RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comf... 5cats 05-11-11 59

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 01:03 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
"Too Close for Comfort" must be Ashley & Natalie -- as per the previews at the end of the last episode with Grant telling Rob they had to break "them" up.

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05-05-11, 02:04 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Could it be that:

1.) Natalie and Ashley are 'Too Close', and that as Grant told Rob, he thinks the 2 girls should be split up by voting for Ashley, or
2.) Rob says that because of all the talking, it's 'Too Close for Comfort' for him and that he should use the Idol during the next TC. (If this is the case, then does it mean that Rob does not win Immunity this time?) Or,
3.) Grant feels secure because of his closeness to Rob, but he will be the next boot to be orchestrated by Rob?

It is interesting to note that Philip is not really 'close' to anyone...

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05-05-11, 08:32 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Welcome, Suvavah! Happy to have you here. All great thoughts, hope you stick around and give us your two cents worth!
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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 04:26 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Here are the clues from CBS:

A COMMON ENEMY STRENGTHENS THE BOND BETWEEN TWO CASTAWAYS, CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR THE REST, ON "SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND," WEDNESDAY, MAY 11

"Too Close for Comfort" — One castaway gets a taste of their own medicine on Redemption Island, while another castaway’s plan for a big move could prove to be their biggest mistake, on SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND, Wednesday, May 11 (8:00-9:00 PM ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 04:33 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Enemy is Philip 2 castaways Nat and Ash

Andrea gets the cold shoulder from Matt on RI (at first)

Big move is Ashley trying to get rid of Philip?

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 04:39 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Totally co-sign all of this, emydi.

I think you have it spot on although I could also see Ashley's "big move" being to try to get rid of Rob. That would fit with Grant calling her a "snake" (if Grant is in fact referring to Ashley when he says that).

Plus, getting rid of Phillip with only 8 days to go is such a stupid move at this point. Remember Sandra at the HvV reunion saying there came a point where it wasn't worth getting rid of Russell? Same thing applies now with Phillip. Of course, Ashley could very well be *that* dumb.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 06:21 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
In the insider clips Ashley says she thinks she could beat Rob in F3. So it doesn't seem like she would want to get rid of Rob.

I think the "big move" is probably Phillip spewing his usual nonsense again, and will probably result in nothing.

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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 04:36 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
The common enemy must be Phillip, and we see Natalie and Ashley bonding over that in the preview. It causes problems for Rob and Grant and they decide they need to split them up.

Phillip probably is the one who gets a taste of his own medicine when Ashley and Natalie start to harass him right back and call him names, etc. (Scene from shelter in preview, etc.)

The plan for a big move that could prove to be a big mistake is probably our boot story, so I'm guessing it's Ashley. She probably cooks up a plan to take out Phillip and Rob doesn't want to lose his goat, but we'll have to see what the next promo gives us to work with.

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 04:41 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
It can't be Phillip getting "a taste of his own medicine" because the clue says "on Redemption Island." Of course, it could be yet another in a long line of badly written clues & it was supposed to be on "Survivor: Redemption Island."
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05-05-11, 05:12 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Sorry, in a hurry and missed the RI part. Agree with Emydi that it's Andrea getting the cold shoulder. There was a reason we didn't get to see her arrive at RI like they've been doing with the others.
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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
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05-05-11, 04:44 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
I'm not sure it's in reference to Natalie and Ashley. They already have had an extremely strong bond (especially on previous Phillip antics), so why do we need a clue to say that these two are bonding over Phillip in this coming episode?

How about Rob and Natalie? We know they have a bond but we haven't seen much of an interaction on the show in recent weeks other than when Natalie ratted out Ashley. So maybe Phillip's rantings go onto a higher level and we see Natalie making a break for it in the previews, so Rob later goes over and talk her down and they bond even more strongly as he convinces her that Phillip needs to stay for the F3? Once Rob has cemented her trust in this manner, it becomes easier for Natalie to accept that Ashley has to go (he's not gonna tell her this tidbit before TC, though).

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05-05-11, 05:13 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
That makes sense too, Pepe. And the scene from the preview where they hug and he says he has her back would tie in with that.
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05-05-11, 05:48 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
A common enemy strengthens the bond between two castaways, causing problems for the rest.

While Pepe has a point with Rob and Natalie (and I do believe that Natalie and Rob will be seen bonding) the common enemy reference means either Natalie realizes Ashley is an enemy or Rob realizes Phillip is an enemy. And how would Rob and Natlie bonding be causing problems for the others in the tribe?
I'm of the thought that while this tease could reference a couple of different situations the true context of it points to the further bonding of Ashley and Natalie. (In truth, after the tattling, the two of them need some


One castaway gets a taste of their own medicine on Redemption Island

Andrea gets the cold shoulder at RI.
All of the guys are gonna be judgmental of Andrea's past decisions. Julie called her untrustworthy and while the guys wouldn't be as harsh, they won't trust her.


another castaway’s plan for a big move could prove to be their biggest mistake

Could prove?
Firstly, it sounds as if the outcome may or may not be the castaway's biggest mistake.
Hmm...Is this a tip-of-the-hat to the eventual F3 loser? Proving why they may not be the winner? The flaw in the plan?
Or is it as simple as Ashley plans big but is tattled on again and is voted out?


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05-05-11, 06:15 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
LAST EDITED ON 05-05-11 AT 06:16 PM (EST)

And how would Rob and Natlie bonding be causing problems for the others in the tribe?

Agree the bonding part might fit because we see it in the previews but the causing problems for everyone else doesn't. And also with your point about the common enemy. I think it's Natalie and Ashley and relates to the "they have to be broken up" scene in the previews.

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05-06-11, 10:53 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
As I said in the vidcaps topic, I think Ashley will try to make the big move and get Phillip out. FloPo has noted repeatedly that she and Phillip are antagonists and that Ashley's story is about Phillip.

Phillip has no need to make a move. None. He is set as long as Rob protects him with Natalie's assistance and probably Grant's as well.

Ashley is in danger of being knocked out of the finals with Rob favoring Natalie of the spa pair, Grant being kept for his challenge prowess, Phil being kept as goat.

As Cirie noted in PEI, the goat has to go.
Ashley probably figures that Natalie will be on board, and that Grant could be.
My guess is that Ashley tries to circumvent Rob, which this season is a BIG variation on the norm.

Grant and Natalie tell Rob.
Rob reassures Phillip.
Ashley blindsided.
Title refers to danger of leaving a two person alliance in the game at F4/5

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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05-06-11, 11:19 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Title refers to danger of leaving a two person alliance in the game at F4/5

Ah, I thought the title was referring to that Sammy Davis, Jr./Frank Sinatra song: "One thing leads to another/Too late to run for cover/She's much too close for comfort now -- and a little pinch of soda!"

LOL That song (the Sammy version with the "little pinch of soda" line at the end) has been stuck in my head since the title came out. Thank god I like it.

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05-06-11, 11:04 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
I don't think Mike will hold anything against Andrea, she never owed him anything anyway. Matt may, but it was his own big mistakes that lead to his second boot. Ralph may resent that she didn't join with Matt's plan to obliterate Ometepe (though, honestly, that would leave her as one of two Ometepe in a Zapatera controlled alliance, why does anyone think she should have made that guaranteed loser move?), Ralph is the grumpy one.
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05-09-11, 03:47 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
A common enemy strengthens the bond between two castaways, causing problems for the rest.
- little doubt that it's Phillip that strengthens the bond between Ashley and Natalie... right?

"Too Close for Comfort"
- Phillip gets too close to the girls? He seems to invade their space a lot...

One castaway gets a taste of their own medicine on Redemption Island
- this is what I actually wanted to speculate on. We've been theorizing that it's Andrea getting a cold-shoulder, and that's probably right...

...but what if Matt LOSES the challenge (finally), getting a taste of losing and throwing his buff into the fire? He's been kicking people off the island ever since the third episode... what if he's the one who gets kicked out?
- his "redemption story" is tied to Andrea, and she's on the island now
- his "religious story" is retold (better) via Mike nowadays

while another castaway’s plan for a big move could prove to be their biggest mistake.
- Ashley or Phillip... but it doesn't matter, because Ashley (probably) wins immunity and Phillip (probably) gets voted, so... take your pick.
- An alternative: Natalie said she wants to make big moves... with Rob. But what if she's mad that Rob wants to target Ashley? (unlikely, but possible)

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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-11, 06:24 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
never mind - I think it's Andrea getting the wet side of the shelter.
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05-05-11, 09:00 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Phillip has been talking about a time to get rid of Rob. Perhaps Phillip is going to be the one to make the big move. And what's the one thing Rob doesn't want - he doesn't want Phillip gone.


Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie


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05-05-11, 10:17 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Yes, I am with Samboobree...I don't know if Ashley is capable of making any big moves. This definitely sounds more like Phillip to me...and could it indeed, FINALLY, lead to his boot?

Rob has a red flag regarding Phillip. I think he is less concerned about the spa girls than he is with Phillip. And with Ashley instigating him, lord knows what wrath he'll sow...I know I've thought Phillip would go at least 2 previous times, but seriously...

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05-06-11, 11:23 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
I think we may hear Phillip talking in confessional about making a move, but really what can he do now? He helped vote out Andrea, the one person who early on seemed receptive to him. Who could he possibly enlist? I think this clue is about something that we hear about but never even remotely gets off the ground.
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05-06-11, 11:36 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
You raise a good point, BR. What could Phillip do? He couldn't really enlist anyone. Who is capable of pulling off a big move? Not Phillip, I don't think the spa girls could either. We know Nat wants to ride the coattails to the end, as does Ashley. Ashley is bringing Rob to the finals as her goat! The only one that could pull off a big move would be Grant, imho. He could win immunity and enlist either the spa girls and Phillip to take out Rob...

I don't think he'll do that though...so, that boils down to Phillip, talking the talk. Nothing will come of the "talk", but if Rob gets wind of it, Phillip would indeed be toast imo. Rob does have a red flag up regarding him.



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05-06-11, 12:29 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
It would actually make sense to take out Phillip now. He has Ashley and Natalie in his back pocket. They would probably be happy to vote out Grant when the time comes and they aren't loose cannons like Phillip is. Rob would keep control over them and most likely easily beat them if they all were to make the F3.
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05-06-11, 10:18 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
I think that it's unlikely that Rob can win under those circumstances. He really needs Phil with him at F3.

With 2 exOMG's (it doesn't matter who, IMO) alongside him at F3, and with 5 exZaps, plus 3 exOMGs, plus Matt on the jury, Rob might have a chance. The exZap votes would splinter. If one of his fellow F3 survivors is Phil, he stands a better chance, probably a very good chance. If the other is Grant, I think he could very well loose. His best scenario with an all-exOMG F3 requires Phil to be at F3, and Grant to not be.

If he lets (or somehow it happens despite what he wants) an exZap into the F3 mix with him and Phil (or anyone, really) I doubt he could overcome the expected ex-Zap plus Matt bloc majority (the Jury would be 4 exZaps, 4 exOMGs, and Matt). Even here he needs Phil to keep the ex-OMG votes from splintering and give him some chance.

It goes without saying however that jury votes aren't all that predictable, but it seem this year that with the exception of Matt, tribal unity is pretty strong. David and Crazy Mike could possibly break those bonds, as could Andrea or other exOMGs that resent their upcoming blindsid.

BTW, I'm going on record to state that despite whatever brilliant speech Phil has in mind, that there is no way he can get a single vote at F3, and he is indeed a crazy African American Indian if he thinks he can.

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05-07-11, 01:34 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
LAST EDITED ON 05-07-11 AT 07:03 AM (EST)

I'm going to be a contrarian this week.
I feel strongly that if Phillip is not going to be F3, which he may well be, he will at least be in the Finale -- as more than a duelist.

The talk of a big move is good misdirection, because of all the prior focus on Phillip's move. However, in this season, it is a big move to even talk to another player about who to boot when Rob hasn't approved it. That's how wimpy this season is.

Ashley having symptoms of independent brain activity would equate with making a big move.

The promo shows us Phillip acting psycho again, but the trust issue we see is about Ashley.


Before buying into the promo hype, think about why Phillip needs to make a move, and who it would be against. There is only one person there that Phillip reasonably ought to be looking at taking out, and that's Grant. Phillip has a plan for Rob, but not for Grant.

But ... the only allies Phillip could look to to take out Grant are the two degrees, and they aren't going to work with him. Shoot, they wouldn't even work with Andrea. And Grant is the assassin who will take out the RI person, so really, Phil does not need to make a move.

He, Rob, Grant are good this time.

One of the girls will go, and Phillip doesn't need to do squat to make that happen, because Rob will decide.

It would be classic Survivor surprise boot if they voted out Natalie instead of Ashley, but I think it's going to be the obvious boot. Except not that obvious, if most of the people here are on the Phillip bandwagon.

ETA -- this post is somewhat over-emphatic. I'm obviously not so sure that it goes this way as I sound. I thought that last week they might do a surprise boot of Grant, and they didn't -- so I suppose they could still have one up their sleeve.

However, it seems to me that someone who goes now after not playing too hard, and then immediately loses on RI, might be just the sort of player who deserves Ashley's edit.

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05-07-11, 07:30 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Agree with you OFG (emphatic or not! ). I don't know how many are really on the Phillip bandwagon. I think some of us tossed out the what if it is Phillip? for discussion. I think Ashley is a goner for the reasons you stated above.
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05-07-11, 08:12 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""

Ashley is obvious to all of us, but being who we are here, obvious is suspect.
I understand why some want to look at the obvious stuff as misdirection.

I did that last week. Andrea was the obvious boot, and overly so, which made me look at Grant.

Steve and Ralph were obvious.
David and Mike were obvious.
Julie was neither obvious nor surprising.

Hmm.
The only really surprising boot this season was Matt going out second.

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05-08-11, 02:40 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Ashley's "obvious" edit is from the "Next time on..." clip, though. The previews seem to be a week ahead.

Three weeks ago, the previews focused on Phillip/Steve's rice-wars crazy-talk.
Boot: Julie.

Two weeks ago, the previews focused on Phillip's best day, Matt's worst day, and Andrea as a target.
Boot: Steve/Ralph.

Last week, the previews focused on everyone equally, bunch of crying, several Rob quotes... noticeably missing? Phillip's focus.
Boot: Andrea.

This week, the previews focused on Ashley being untrustworthy, Phillip being psycho.
Boot: ...phillip?

(Further ideas to support the Phillip boot: the "the one thing you don't want to have happen, happened" quote could be "We were all set to vote Ashley, and now she's got immunity...")

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05-07-11, 04:44 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
I'm with you too, ofg. I've been on the (quietly) firm position of Ashley being the next boot since the end of the last episode.
Moreso because I know Phillip makes F3. And the last episode confirmed to me that Rob is F3 as well.
The other F3, while it would be fun to postulate which of the RI returnees would make it, I still think none will.
So the third will probably be either Natalie or Grant.
Rob wants Natalie and so far Rob has gotten everything he's wanted.
So, for me, it's a matter of Ashley, Grant (or Natalie) and the RI returnee all getting the boot from now til the end.
Of course, I pepper that all with, "I've been wrong more than right but it won't stop me from trying."
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05-08-11, 01:14 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
IMO Grant is the least likely Murlonio to get voted off. I don't think it is in the best interest of ANY of the other current Murlonios to target Grant, so I don't expect any of them to make a serious proposal to take him out. If they're stupid enough to take Grant out now, they have nobody left who can beat either Mike or Matt in an athletically based challenge, and that would almost be handing whichever of them returns from RI a final 3 spot on a silver platter. I know Rob wants Natalie and Phillip with him in the final 3, but if they take out Grant now, that has even less chance of happening than it does if he stays, so I think it's gotta be Phillip or Ashley this time.
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05-08-11, 01:27 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
LAST EDITED ON 05-08-11 AT 01:29 AM (EST)

I was talking about the next three boots.
I don't think Grant is going anywhere this week. I'm firm on Ashley leaving.
Grant's demise is dependent on when the returnee actually returns and after the Immunity where the returnee is participating. That is when Grant gets booted. Either at F5(the second one) or F4.

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05-08-11, 03:53 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Co-sign this.

I think the TCs will play out like this:

1st F5 -- Ashley booted;
2nd F5 -- RI returnee OR Grant booted (depending on IC win; obviously, if RI returnee wins this IC, Grant gets boot; if anyone else wins this IC then RI returnee gets boot because Rob would rather risk Grant in F3 than RI returnee who is guaranteed every Zap vote);
F4 -- Grant or RI returnee booted (again, this vote directly correlates with the 2nd F5 boot -- if RI returnee booted then, Grant booted here & vice versa).
F3 -- Rob/Natalie/Phillip -- just what Rob wants.

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05-08-11, 07:41 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
If Rob cares that much about the returnee, who is the Brett of this season, then if returnee wins immunity at F5, Grant would need to stay to fight the F4 contest. If returnee won immunity again at F4, THEN it would be time to vote Grant out, from Rob's perspective, to avoid something like say a Matt/Mike + Rob + Grant F3.

Grant's best shot might be letting the returnee win one and then winning the F4, but I doubt Grant thought of it in those terms.

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05-09-11, 12:35 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
OFG, I agree completely.
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05-09-11, 01:29 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
LAST EDITED ON 05-09-11 AT 01:31 PM (EST)

Rob knows he's going to be the returnee's target no matter what unless he wins immunity. If he doesn't win the F5 immunity and the returnee does, he should want to keep the two remaining Ometepe with the best chance of beating the returnee in the next immunity. If he keeps Phillip for the goat factor, he's leaving himself open to Phillip's unpredictability. Plus if Phillip can't get any votes at Final that just means, really, he cannot help split anti-Rob votes.

But assuming he did make that choice, Rob brings a lot of the same factors himself to the final IC as Grant, Natalie has the female factors that favor a female in some challenges requiring endurance and balance. If the returnee is Mike or Matt, Rob makes it a Grant/MorM/Rob/Phillip IC, the odds only slightly favor an MorM defeat. In a Natalie/MorM/Rob/Phillip IC the chances of a Natalie or Rob victory are better. If the returnee is Andrea or Ashley, no-brainer, Rob has to keep Natalie and throw Grant under the bus.

Getting rid of Phillip is actually his best move, make it a Grant/Natalie/Rob/Returnee IC. If the Returnee wins both final ICs Rob has to convince Grant and Natalie to vote against each other. If one of them sides with the Returnee to vote Rob he has to win a tie-breaker (which is actually good juju to carry to FTC). It's a matter of who he trusts more, Grant or Natalie, which one he would face in the tie, he has to pick right or he's out with two votes to one each for them. If they are both equally trustworthy Rob is safe, Grant or Natalie go to the jury with two votes one of them being Rob's. Puzzle.

This upcoming episode should see Rob testing everyone's devotion to Rob.

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05-08-11, 07:52 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
I have to at least throw this out there:
this would be the episode for a Rob blindside if it were ever to happen.

Rob did say someone has to go to Redemption Island, so it would be very ironic if he ended up going.

He could push Natalie too hard by forcing her to boot Ashley now, and holding on to Phillip. While Natalie sees Phil's goat value, Ashley and she are BFF.

The one bad thing Rob could do, IMHO, would be to show Natalie the HII to show her the power he has -- and power to keep her safe. If Grant, Ashley, Natalie learned of it, they would all feel betrayed.

I can't help feel but that hiding the HII should come back to bite Rob in the butt, as he made such a big deal of fooling the others.

If they do not blindside him with the HII unplayed this time, then he will play it next time, and he will make F4.

It doesn't seem like these people will ever summon up the gumption to do it, but it would be cool if the editors went totally UTR for such a big boot and didn't hype it at all and everyone was stunned.

Then Mike, Matt, Andrea, and Rob would duel, and that would be one high stakes duel and would resolve all the story-lines at once.


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05-08-11, 10:15 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
LAST EDITED ON 05-08-11 AT 03:07 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 05-08-11 AT 10:21 AM (EST)

Now that is using your noggin, OFG! His comment last week could be foreshadowing. Natalie doesn't appear to be too upset with Rob in the promos...we hear her state, she thinks it's "me and her". Seems to me like there is alot of editing manipulation with these scenes. Let's examine the verbiage with the vidcaps....

First they return from TC, and Ashley notes, and then there were five!...


We see the girls hugging and saying, "YEAH!"

Then in a confessional Ashley declares that she loves a blindside!

Then the next morning, the guys get up to go and collect some firewood. Note Grants hair, it's morning hair and it's sticking straight up....



They agree that they are all good, and congratulate themselves on the first one out...they gather firewood and build the morning fire...

Then, later in the day, note Rob is shirtless, we have Rob and Phillip off together and Rob is reassuring him...

Rob: I'm not getting you out."
Phillip: "Thank you."
Rob: "You have my word."



Then later, Grant is telling Rob, while on the blanket,(Note the same tree in the background)... Splitting them up is the best route, Then Grant tells Rob, my word is with you, dude. This is Grant giving his word to Rob, whatever Rob's plan is, his word is with him! So, we know that Rob and Grant are sticking together.


Then, later maybe, we have Rob sitting on the swing, talking with Natalie around the campfire....He's probably telling her that there are some that want to split them up, and that if one of them has to go, he's got her back, but Ashley can't be trusted....



Rob : Know that I've got your back. Ashley can't be trusted.

The scenes with Natalie are all over the place. First we have the swing and the campfire scene, and Nat most likely could be sitting in one of the chairs, but in the next pics, she and Rob are sitting in the chairs when she tells Rob....


Natalie: "She thinks it's me and her."

Then later when Rob is out in the woods with the shovel, he tells her...

Rob: "You just have to do what I say." It seems to me that this last scene when Rob tells her to just do what he says, ends in this...

So, Grant will do as Rob says, and Nat will do as Rob says....spells Ashley's demise to me.

But, let's play what if as OFG suggests...

1. Ashley: We hear Ashley state that "we stuck together from the beginning", and Grant says "splitting them up is the best route." Rob, tells Nat that he has her back. Ashley loves a blindside. Could be Ashley is indeed blindsided this week by the ONES that she stuck with from the beginning...4 - 1...Ironic...

Grant wants to bust them up, Phillip hates Ashley, Nat would do what Rob wants...easy to get her out. What if the big plan is to bust up Rob and Grant...and Ashley introduces it to Nat...? Rob and Grant are the other couple in this F5. Only problem could be if Nat runs and tattles again to Rob....her big plan to bust up the other couple would indeed spell her demise.

2. Natalie: We hear that Grant thinks the best route is to split them up. We hear that someone has a big plan. What if the big plan is to bust up Rob and Grant, and target either that doesn't win immunity. If Rob gets wind of it, likely one of the spa girls would go....just don't believe that little Nat will go against Rob, after everything he's done to get her there, and after we saw where Nat's loyalties lay....when she tattled on Ashley when Ralph approached her...Nat will stay loyal at this point, imo. Also, is there a chance that Nat could win the IN...

ETA: What parathor noted in the Possible F3 shot of Dreamteamers thread....if "the worst thing that could happen, happens" is that Ashley wins IC, and they have to boot Nat...food for thought!

This week the promo teases, "it's anybody's game"?

3. Phillip: He's the boot decoy again. The Ome's will tell Ash that it's Phillip this week. Just like last week. Phillip was the secondary boot target last week. If Rob has any suspicions regarding Phillip, he could be toast...We see Ashley taunting Phillip...4 to 1. So, Phillip needs reassurance. I don't know if the girls could rally Phillip to take out one of the guys...if Grant doesn't get immunity perhaps, he'd consider that, but I would believe he's solid with Grant being needed to prevent the RI'er from getting to the F3...I'd say Phillip should remain the secondary boot choice, so would go if Ashley, by some miracle, were to win the IN...

4. Grant. If he doesn't win immunity, the girls could plot to break up the other "couple"...I think he's needed to take out the RI'er, so I believe he's safe...

5. Rob. You raise a great point and we do see Rob with the shovel. If he did reveal his HII, I agree, it could spell disaster. Crazier moves have happened, perhaps? But, I just don't see it. Why would Rob not breathe a word of it and now, just before he's planning on using it, reveal it?

And, if he revealed to Nat, that would mean that he is revealing his plan to get HER to the F3, wouldn't she be on board with that idea? I don't see her betraying Rob in this way, when we've already seen who she aligns with more when she ratted out Ashley to Rob when Ralph spoke to her.

but it would be cool if the editors went totally UTR for such a big boot and didn't hype it at all and everyone was stunned.

Like I said, stranger things have happened!

At this point, for me, the evidence that we have so far seems to point to an Ashley boot this week. So, could be the F4=Rob/Grant/Nat/Phillip
Ep 14: Begin with RI quadruel , winner is added to the F4=New F5: Rob/Grant/Nat/Phillip/?Matt

IC#14: Rob and Grant have an excellent shot at winning the IN. TC #14: Is this the last time that Rob can play his IN? Let's say Grant wins the IN, vote out Matt

IC#15: Rob/Grant/Nat/Phillip....I thought that Rob would use his HII here to vote out Grant, if Grant does not have the IN, or to at least guarantee himself a spot in the F3. But, if Rob doesn't win immunity, and Grant does, will Nat and Grant agree to vote with Rob to get out Phillip? Could be tricky...?

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05-08-11, 08:04 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
LAST EDITED ON 05-08-11 AT 08:05 PM (EST)

Excellent analysis by OFG, Flowerpower, Parathor and everyone else in this thread! There’s not much left to add…

However there are two points I wanted to make. First, I agree that the comment, “One castaway gets a taste of their own medicine on Redemption Island,” must be about Andrea. However, it may be more than just a “cold shoulder”. Andrea voted Matt out twice, and the best way for her to get a taste of her own medicine is if she is booted from the game at the hands of Matt. In other words, she loses the RI Challenge and is eliminated from the game.

The second point that still seems unresolved is the quote that Parathor suggested could be talking about an unexpected Immunity Winner: "the one thing you don't want to have happen, happened" quote could be "We were all set to vote Ashley, and now she's got the immunity idol.”

Unless we can come up with a better explanation for this comment, I believe we need to consider Parathor's explanation that Ashley may win Immunity this week…



Krautboy

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05-08-11, 08:22 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
That's not a bad idea, Krautboy - the only pause I have about "to get a taste of her (Andrea) own medicine is if she is booted from the game at the hands of Matt" is that (a) she had to go with the majority to boot Matt and I don't think she was entirely 'okay' with the idea of doing so, and (b) Matt wouldn't be the one who eliminates her from RI because all he had do was to finish in the top three - he could beat Andrea but Andrea would also have to lose to Mike and Ralph as well.
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05-08-11, 10:51 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Although the wording of "his own medicine" is strange, I think Andrea is the one that will be angry with Matt for throwing her under the bus with Rob. From Andrea's perspective, Matt ruined what she thought was a good game.
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05-09-11, 07:13 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
LAST EDITED ON 05-09-11 AT 07:14 AM (EST)

I tend to agree that it is more likely that Andrea would be unhappy with Matt`s game than the other way around, since we`ve seen more signs of anger from her in the game. Matt would probably just ask a bunch of questions `why` etc. but I don`t think he`s the type of person to hold it against her. Rooster and Mike probably would be cool to her after hearing Matt`s explanation of how the game unfolded after they arrived on RI.

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05-09-11, 06:53 AM (EST)
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38. "Possible Ashley wins the IC..."
LAST EDITED ON 05-09-11 AT 07:40 AM (EST)

In the promos we have Rob reassuring everyone but Ashley. He tells Natalie, know that I've got your back.. We hear Grant tell Rob, my word is with you, dude.. Then he tells Phillip, I'm not getting you out. You have my word.

We see that Rob cannot trust Ashley...Ashley can't be trusted. Clearly, this spells an Ashley boot. However, the one thing that you don't want to happen, happened. As Parathor and Krautboy speculate, and I agree, more than likely it is Ashley that will win the IN. After all, the teaser states that "anyone can win"...

If we suppose that Ashley wins the IN, then who would Rob boot? Last week he told us that Phillip raises a red flag with him? He doesn't completely trust him, but he knows that the jury wouldn't vote for him, or would they, he's "good" with words.

i really thought it would be Grant, as without the IN, he's vulnerable, and clearly out of all the contestants left, he'll be the hardest to win against in the final three. But, Grant is choking on the challenges lately. Rob won the later last 2 out of 3, and if Ash wins this one....his edit was manipulated in the promos. The VO had him saying, "My word is with you, dude", but it's not Grant that's saying it, it's Rob. Rob is not giving Grant his word, Grant is giving Rob his....so we really don't hear Rob committing to Grant to his face, could Grant be in real trouble hear?

Natalie is all over the promos, and I did get a Natalie vibe as well. But, we heard Rob declare many times that Natalie is his main alliance in the game, and that it would be really hard to get her to the end, but if he had to strap her on his back and carry her the whole way, he would...

With Ash safe, could she convince anyone to vote for Rob? I don't think so, because she wants to end up in the F3 with Rob as the goat. I think she wants to target Phillip as we have seen.

Who is the most vulnerable?

Editing once again: We know that Rob won't vote for Natalie, and neither will Ashley and Nat. So, imo, Natalie is safe. That leaves either Phillip or Grant. If Rob saves Phillip, Grant is toast....but, could Rob cut Phillip loose?


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05-09-11, 08:13 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC..."
If Ashley wins immunity, Natalie is going I think. The edit has made them interchangeable and, in fact, Ashley has more substance. I doubt it but if Ashley wins IN, then the two girls have to be broken up.
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05-09-11, 04:31 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC..."
That is what I think as well. If Ashley wins immunity, Natalie will get booted.
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05-09-11, 09:19 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC..."
I think that Grant will not get booted, because Grant attacks challenges with such energy that I think he could whup anyone at RI, and would come right back in. That would render the storylines at RI totally moot. (what a stupid twist)

The only reason a Natalie boot feels wrong to me is that she's had one of those odd edits that hidden finalists tend to get. Although maybe she was hidden because she is so boring when she speaks.

That would be cool if Natalie went after Rob promises to take care of her. That would at least be somewhat interesting.

But all we have to go on for an Ashley immunity is Rob saying that line. Do we have any evidence of when he says it? Vidcaps of the challenge are fairly deficient.

Phillip is not winning this one.
We have yet to see Ashley attack a challenge with the same drive we see in Grant and Rob.

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05-09-11, 09:45 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC..."
I agree with you, OFG. They are creating drama where there is none...maybe...

But, as I speculated, last week we had Rob noting that the worst thing that could happen would be if they started talking to each other....that could still ring true, with his, "the worst thing that could happen, happened". The whole point is that Rob is noting that something that he previously said would be bad, happens. It may be that Ashley wins the IN, but then again, it may not be. I agree, it most likely is misdirection. I have a hard time seeing Andrea win this challenge, she has appeared quite weak in the past. But, who knows, I suppose, as the graphics tell us in the promos, that "anyone could win"...

If anyone could win implies that the last person you would expect to win does, I would bet that Phillip could win as well. But, I also agree on that....just don't see that!



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05-09-11, 10:49 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC..."
I agree with OFG & FloPo (surprise!) -- The Ashley wins IC is wishful thinking because this season has been completely lacking in suspense and surprises (except for Matt's 2nd boot) so we are trying to create some & will grasp on any little bone the editors throw our way to do it. Remember the Andrea boot? Totally predictable and even I *almost* got convinced it was Grant going. Same can be said of almost every other boot this season (except Matt's 2nd boot) -- we couldn't accept the boot was the obvious boot.

Phillip is as likely to win the IC as Ashley is, IMO. I mean that-- they both have sucked in every challenge (except the hanging one, Phillip didn't participate & Ashley did hang in there but that was all due to body weight & luck, not challenge prowess).

Phillip, Natalie & Grant aren't going anywhere next episode. Neither is Rob. That only leaves Ashley.

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05-10-11, 12:39 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: Possible Ashley wins the IC..."
It's called Occam's Razor. We've been guilty of overthinking scenarios and boots more than a few times now.
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05-09-11, 09:52 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
This storyline is the key, so I'll reprint it here:
A COMMON ENEMY STRENGTHENS THE BOND BETWEEN TWO CASTAWAYS, CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR THE REST

What do we know for sure?
We know Phillip is the common enemy
We know the two castaways are Natalie and Ashley.

Then we have typical horrible CBS syntax. The strict grammatical interpretation makes "enemy" the subject ruling both "strengthens" and "causing problems for the rest." That would make it Phillip who causes problems for "the rest" i.e. Rob and Grant.

This could be, in that Rob and Grant are sealing the deal on an all-male alliance in one cap, and the girls are going to want Phillip to go.

The other interpretation is that it's "the bond between two castaways" that causes problems for the rest. Should be written more like :The bond strengthens between two castaways, due to a common enemy, which causes problems for the rest.

Either way, the crux of the problem is that Natalie and Ashley are too close, and need to be broken up. Phillip's crazy antics drive them into renewed bonding and sharing, such that Natalie is torn up by the suggestion that she boot Ashley.

Rob does not want to lose Ashley's vote for himself by powering through the vote and getting her out 3-2; he wants a consensus vote so that Ashley will feel Natalie turned on her.

Rob does not want to boot Phillip. He has groomed him for goat at great cost in terms of camp harmony. The risk for Rob, other than a non-consensus vote, would seem to be that if Natalie goes rogue with her vote, that is 2 against Phillip, and what if they talk Grant into it?

Grant and Rob talk and Grant reassures Rob. Rob and Natalie talk.
We have the proposal from FP that Ashley then wins immunity. No question this would mess up Rob's plans.

Before getting set on that explanation, is there anything else that could happen?

Ashley as bottom of the Ometepe alliance after Andrea was already set up. There is no surprise here. The only "problem" for Rob is facing a dissent vote in the group.

Of course, he will likely have that anyway if he switched to Natalie because Ashley wins immunity. Ashley will vote for Phillip, why would she not?

Hmm, After all this dithering, I start to wonder if Natalie bunny is toast.

One thing that bothers me is the cap we have with stand-ins for Matt, Rob, Natalie. They wouldn't have any use for those stand-ins until the following TC, assuming Matt returns. That would then be a "faked" shot that was made deliberately near the end of the filming with a fake final three in it.

It is also very possible that there was never any doubt that Ashley would go this time, during the filming, that she didn't win immunity, and there was really no alternate that Rob seriously considered. In that case, they could pull Rob's comment about the thing you don't want to happen happens out of context, to create some doubt in the promos. There would be very little doubt in the actual episode once the IC was run.

Too bad we have no timeframe for all these powwows and comments.

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05-10-11, 11:01 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Rob said a few weeks ago that he hoped they didn't talk to each other. Natalie thinks it is her and Ashley going with Rob and Grant thinks it is him and Phillip and the worse thing that could happen - happened-- they talked. This would explain why Rob is shown reassuring them they have a deal.
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05-10-11, 03:13 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Hiya pezzu! Welcome to Blows! You hit the nail on the head, "The worst thing that could happen has happened" statement could be referring to multiple scenarios. Seriously, will Ashley have a prayer of winning the IN? The teasers think so, because they tease, "Anyone's game to win"...



But, seriously? Can Ashley win the IC?

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05-10-11, 04:46 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
...I think so, sure! "Anyone" can win!

Plus the promos aren't really showing Ashley could win. That was just a hypothesis to explain Rob's comment. ... but that just adds fuel to my fire that Ashley "could" win, because if they said "And does Ashley win her first immunity?" then I'd say "no," but with them not mentioning her, then... "yes."

Maybe.

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05-10-11, 06:21 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Parathor, I secretly hope you are right because I've been saying it's Rob/Phil/Nat in the F3 since Natalie's week 4 confessional. I feel like I spoiled myself!! But, at least, there has been something about Ashley's edit that tells me she could surprise us.
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05-10-11, 06:52 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
I just want to ask: Does Grant really believe Rob would take him to F3 and would Grant really want to take Rob to the F3? Is Grant that stupid?????????? Does anyone think Grant has a plan to get rid of Rob? Strange Grant has only had one confessional that hints at him being his own man or something like that. I don't think tptb want us to know what is going on in his head.
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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-11, 07:32 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
It might not be Rob's choice. What if Rob doesn't win F4... what if it's Grant? Grant takes Rob and Natalie (I'm assuming).

I think everyone has plans of taking Rob to F3, since he's the ultimate "goat" for them. Phillip isn't the only one who has a good "oral argument" to make against Rob - everyone can make the claim that Rob is too famous, too tricky, too rich, "screwed over Lex," promised everyone F3, didn't confide the HII to his alliance, played 3x before... There's a lot to go against Rob (although I've been onboard with Michel's reasoning since forever - it's Rob's season)

Rob has promised F3 to Grant, Phillip, and Natalie - he has to disappoint at least one of those three. It'd be a better "story" if it were Phillip he screwed over, rather than his true alliancemates... for the Phillip story at tribal, for the F4 walk, for Rob to say "I didn't screw over my alliance, I kept my F4 intact." Plus Rob keeps saying "it's you and me," and Phillip keeps saying "I'm not really with Rob, shhh..." -- eventually that storyline will culminate... it has to, doesn't it?

(ugh... can't quite reach.... straws.... ugh....)

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5cats 1186 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

05-11-11, 06:29 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
But it doesn't matter that Rob did this and that and is rich. He played the best game; outwitted, outplayed and outsomethinged! That is what most vote for or is it? I think any of them would be a fool to take him if they have a chance to get rid of him. All Grant has done is win some immunities and followed Rob around. Natalie and Ashley have done nothing. Phillip actually has a better chance by playing a mental game by supposedly pretending to be crazy and fooling everyone. If I were Rob or Grant and had the chance I'd take the bimbos. If Matt is F3 he will probably win. The fair haired boy! I really hope he doesn't but surviving almost the whole game on RI and winning all those duels and being liked may be his winning ticket. Hope Rob wins though as he did play the best game which wasn't too difficult as the others are all idiots.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

05-11-11, 07:00 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Jury votes are almost always personal even when they are about the game. What makes that jurist feel best. The reasons vary from individual to individual.

so-and-so beat me, I vote for him.
so-and-so was my friend, I vote for her.
so-and-so I don't like, I vote for one of the other so-and-so's.
so-and-so was my original tribe, I vote my tribe.
so-and-so has a charity I like, I vote my feelgood.

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5cats 1186 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

05-11-11, 07:18 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: S22, Ep 13, "Too Close for Comfort""
Maybe dabo but isn't it rare for someone to vote for someone who did nothing just because they liked them? If they don't win any or just one challenge, don't do any work around camp, don't play a mental game but just follow someone (Rob) around I can't imagine anyone voting for them. Well at least they get 1 out of 3 ~ outlast the others!
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