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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-01-11, 05:53 PM (EST) "S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" LAST EDITED ON 02-01-11 AT 05:56 PM (EST) With two weeks left before the S22 Premiere, it’s time to start discussing who will leave the game first. The Redemption Island Twist complicates things because the person “voted out” each week is not necessarily the person “booted out” each week, depending on whether or not they win the Redemption Island duel. The twist also has the potential to cause confusion where source spoilers are concerned. For example, would a “first boot” spoiler refer to the person voted off to Redemption Island in EP1 or to the person who loses the first duel in EP2? Even sourced spoilers may leave us with some doubt, depending on how the twist is interpreted by the source of the information. At this point we have vidcaps of the EP1 IC/RC with no clear evidence of who wins. Both tribes appear to be very close at the last phase (puzzle block stacking). , The vidcaps also show both tribes with fire during the first episode, so nothing definitive there either. There have been several vidcaps showing the Ometepe members sitting around camp looking concerned, which we have speculated may be post challenge and pre-tribal council. , , TDT has also speculated that the vidcap of Phillip carrying the tribal flag back to camp post –challenge shows him appearing dejected. Based on vidcaps alone, the evidence is leaning towards a Zapatera victory in the first challenge. (Thanks to TDT and Survivor Fever for the vidcaps!) *** Warning!!! Sourced spoiler discussion to follow! *** The sourced spoilers are vague about who goes to TC first, but Missyae seems to tell us that Stephanie is the first boot, as a follow-up to Blackwhale and JP: Blackwhale: “Stephanie Valencia = Marisa Calihan? That may be so. Not quite sure if its Ometepe or Zapatera that goes to tribal council first, but when Zapatera goes, look for Stephanie to go quick. She and Russell clash” Jeff Probst: "Stephanie Valencia, if I'm right, will be one of the first people voted out, if not the first." Missyae: “Jeff Probst gave you the first boot” However the question remains, does the “first boot” mean the first person to be voted off to Redemption Island or the first person booted out of the game to the Ponderosa? Based on the following Blackwhale spoiler summary, Stephanie is the most likely target for the Zapatera Tribe and Phillip or Kristina the early targets for Ometepe: Early Pre-merge Stephanie... Early pre-merge, possibly Zapatera’s first boot. Phillip... Out early, pre-merge Kristina... Won’t be too long for the game; when Kristina is booted, it's an odd number tribal council, either the 3rd episode or the 5th. Unknown Grant...??? So, at this point the vidcaps point to Zapatera winning the first challenge, but the sourced spoilers point to Stephanie of the Zapatera tribe being the first boot. There appears to be a contradiction, but is it possible that both are correct? What if Zapatera wins the first challenge, sending Ometepe to TC where they vote out Phillip to Redemption Island. In EP2 Zapatera loses the IC/RC and sends Stepanie to Redemtion Island, where she loses the first duel to Phillip and is booted out of the game to the Ponderosa and the first person booted out of the game. In this scenario Zapatera can win the first challenge, while Stephanie still becomes the “first boot”. Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Flowerpower 02-02-11 1    RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Krautboy 02-02-11 2        RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Flowerpower 02-02-11 3            RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Krautboy 02-02-11 4                RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Round Robin 02-02-11 5  EP1 TC Votee vs EP2 TC Votee = EP3 ... Krautboy 02-10-11 6    RE: EP1 TC Votee vs EP2 TC Votee = ... Outfrontgirl 02-11-11 7        RE: EP1 TC Votee vs EP2 TC Votee = ... Flowerpower 02-12-11 8  RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Scarlett O Hara 02-12-11 9  RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Krautboy 02-14-11 10    RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Flowerpower 02-14-11 11        RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Krautboy 02-14-11 12            RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion Flowerpower 02-14-11 13

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-02-11, 08:30 AM (EST) 1. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" This year I am not so sold on the Blackwhale spoilers. There seems to be many doubts. He said that both Rob and RussHell would be immune to the merge. He implies that 2 people will get to return from the game when Jiffy and MB explain it that one person will get the chance to return to the game. Now, he says that Stephanie is the first boot... Vidcap evidence supports a Zapatera win. Therefore, it appears that Ometepe will be going to TC, where more than likely Phillip or Kristina will be our first boot. Unless of course, as time gets closer to the premier, we get some other vidcap evidence... I suggest that we call the boot, the boot....booted from the game, torch snuffed as always by Jiffy. Then we can call the post RI boot, the reject, eject, or simply the LOSER.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-02-11, 02:16 PM (EST) 2. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" Hey FloPo, I think we should still give Blackwhale the benefit of the doubt and take his spoilers for what they are...sourced information of which he is not a 100% certain. This season spoilers from Missyae, Blackwhale, SurvivorsUnite and others have all been intermingled, with misinformation and doubt mixed in. Add to that confusion about the definition of when someone is "booted out", and we have an interesting season of spoiling ahead. >This year I am not so >sold on the Blackwhale spoilers. >There seems to be many >doubts. The doubts make for better spoiling, because it forces us to confirm the sourced spoilers, rather than just accepting them. To Blackwhales credit, he has been very careful to let us know when he is less than certain, and I believe he is trying to be concientious about the information he posts. >He said that both >Rob and RussHell would be >immune to the merge. It was Missyae who made this claim back in August and then later retracted it when the false Kimbo Slice info came out. I checked, but couldn't find any posts from Blackwhale on the subject. > He >implies that 2 people will >get to return from the >game when Jiffy and MB >explain it that one person >will get the chance to >return to the game. Still not sure about this...the recent TV Guide shows JP explaining Redemtion Island and it could still be interpreted either way, so we will have to wait and see on this. > Now, >he says that Stephanie is >the first boot... Missyae is the one who implied Stephanie is the "first boot". Blackwhale said he was not sure who goes to TC first, but that Stephanie clashes with Russell and will not last long once Zapata goes to TC. >Vidcap evidence supports a Zapatera win. >Therefore, it appears that Ometepe >will be going to TC, >where more than likely Phillip >or Kristina will be our >first boot. Agree. But again, it doesn't mean that Stephanie can't be the first person booted off of Redemption Island. >I suggest that we call the >boot, the boot....booted from the >game, torch snuffed as always >by Jiffy. Then we can >call the post RI boot, >the reject, eject, or simply >the LOSER. That's where the confusion comes in...in my mind, "booted from the game" is when you lose a duel and are removed from the game. When you are voted out at TC you are just moved to RI, but you are still in the game. > Krautboy   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-02-11, 03:06 PM (EST) 3. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" Hi Krautboy! I wanted to thank you for posting this thread, as there is potential for quite a discussion. I also will give Blackwhale credit in regards to his postings. When he is not sure, he indeed states it. All I am trying to say, however, is that because there is room for error, we do indeed need to take them at face value and either negate or confirm for ourselves. Which I also agree makes for an exciting season. Didn't mean to mix up the two spoilers, but Missyea/Jim is also a well reputed sourced spoiler. I find it intriguing that the vidcaps, so far, aren't necessarily consistent with what BW and Missyea are saying. We don't know for sure if Stephanie will be the first boot from Zapatera when they go to TC, or shall we call her the votee, as the call sheets called the one voted out of TC, or will she be the first boot off the show from RI? I suppose, because of the different TC votee and the RI bootee, that there is room for everyone to be right. At any rate, I'd like to suggest a common lingo that we can use to refer to the votee or the bootee, so at least we know what we are talking about... I will agree to whatever we want to call them.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-02-11, 03:19 PM (EST) 4. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" I like your suggestion of "TC Votee" and "RI Bootee", that seems to make the distinction clear. Starting with EP2, we will need to predict both each week and distinguish one from the other. Krautboy   Top

Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-02-11, 04:38 PM (EST) 5. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" That's how we'll have to do it on the vote thread every week, pick both a TC votee and a RI bootee. At least that's how I'll spell it out.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-10-11, 04:40 PM (EST) 6. "EP1 TC Votee vs EP2 TC Votee = EP3 RI Bootee" LAST EDITED ON 02-10-11 AT 07:56 PM (EST) As we've discussed, the Redemption Island Twist creates the need to distinguish between the TC Votee and the RI Bootee. This also leaves the door open for ambiguity between the two, when sourced spoilers are involved. For example, if Blackwhale or Missyae say someone is the "first boot", do they mean the first TC Votee or the first RI Bootee? Based on TDT's Calendar, EP1 will end with the first TC Votee being sent off to RI. EP2 will ens with the second TC Votee joining them on Redemption Island. Not until the begining of EP3 will we see the first RI Bootee eliminated from the game and sent to Loser Lodge. Theoretically, the traditional "first boot", could make the merge and go on to win the game, but more likely is something like the following... Scenario: Zapatera wins the EP1 Challenge, Ometepe goes to TC1 and votes to send Phillip to RI. In EP2, Ometepe wins the EP2 Challenge and Zapatera goes to TC2 where they vote to send Stephanie to RI. The EP3 Duel is won by Phillip, Stephanie becomes the first RI Bootee and leaves the game. So, in this scenario, when Missyae and Blackwhale got their inside information, who was their source talking about when the said "first boot"...Phillip or Stephanie? I don't think we'll know until EP3! Edited to add: CTGirl and Squid posted elsewhere the link to a MB interview where he confirms what we have been speculating. How Will the Redemption Island Twist Work? Mark Burnett: The very first person (voted out of the game) goes to Redemption Island. There on Redemption Island they live alone. The same conditions, the same amount of food, almost nothing to live with except it’s even worse because they’re completely lonely and alone. And they’re waiting for what happens next in episode two when the next person is voted out of their tribe and joins the first person at Redemption Island. In episode three, person one and person two compete in the first challenge of the episode. It’s a face-to-face duel. And some of the members of their tribes who had voted them out get to be spectators and watch the one-on-one duel. The winner of Redemption Island stays on Redemption Island, the loser now actually goes home. Week four, there’s another duel, spectators come from the tribes to watch, and it goes on. Here's a link to the entire article: http://www.fancast.com/blogs/2011/tv-news/survivors-mark-burnett-on-quitters-spoilers-and-a-possible-celebrity-survivor/ Krautboy   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-11-11, 08:33 PM (EST) 7. "RE: EP1 TC Votee vs EP2 TC Votee = EP3 RI Bootee" Thank you so much Krautboy, for outlining all of this info. My personal preference would be that we keep the term bootee as we've always used it, and add a term for the loser of the RI duel. Like loser, as FP suggested. I think we can answer your question about blackwhale (apologies if this has been mentioned since I last reread your topic). >>> BW: I was told that when Kristina is booted, it's an odd number tribal council, either the 3rd episode or the 5th. Here we see that he is using boot in the traditional sense of getting voted out at tribal council. I don't think we need to second guess what he says about Stephanie as possibly meaning the duel outcome, or Philip either. Also, after reading BW's spoilers, I think it is clear enough that he doesn't have a list of who wins the duels. He is not even sure who returns to the game. He has an idea that no one really hangs on to the victor role for a long streak, and he says that the F5 returnee was not out of the tribe for very long. I honestly don't think he knows enough about when people go to LL or Ponderosa to use the term "bootee" precisely if he meant the loser of the duel. As to Jeff: he states that Russell's advantage at the get-go is having Stephanie on his tribe, because why would any tribe vote for anyone else. Clearly he is referring to who gets voted out when he says she will be the first boot, as he's talking about tribal dynamics. All of Jeff's comments are about tribal dynamics. That's where he sees the game discussed, at TC. I agree with this use, because really, you are "booted" when your tribe ejects you. Redemption Island is a shot at undoing the boot. While on RI, a player is in "the game" but no longer "in the tribe." The tribe is the entity with the power of the boot. Staying in the game for a while, PERHAPS long enough to come "back" -- is in the hands of the contestant. But let us not forget where the center is, it is in camp, in the tribe, and the only way to win the game for anyone is to stay in the tribe or to get back in the tribe. RI is a form of limbo. Finally, once the last duel is fought on RI, the winner returns to the game, and there are still two TC's that eject players -- and those players are bootees, without question, as they go straight to Ponderosa. Therefore if we change the terminology, it has to be switched for the final episode, so it seems better to me not to change it. Now after that very lengthy post, do I have a good sense of who goes first? I do not!   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-12-11, 11:36 AM (EST) 8. "RE: EP1 TC Votee vs EP2 TC Votee = EP3 RI Bootee" We could always just refer to the "boot" as the one that gets snuffed at TC, as it's always been, then refer to the RI boot as the "RI Boot". Same lingo, but distinguished with the RI...? One booted from the tribe, one booted from the game....It does seem like the sourced spoilers do refer to the TC one as the boot. Anyway, back to discussion for the episode one boot...Kona at Sucks has noted the time stamps on the press images. It appears, if I follow it right, that the only two taken on day 3, after the challenge, were the ones of Boston Rob and Phillip. Historically, the cameras go to the tribe that loses the challenge to capture the pre-tribal council drama. Is this a clue that Ometepe may lose the challenge? We have seen pillows and a crate at Zapatera, and we have not seen them at Ometepe. Is that more evidence to support a Zapatera win. Clearly, there must be some additional reward tacked on to winning the challenge, along with immunity....we just have to find it. I also posted this in the Title thread, but I'm throwing it out here as well. With the title of the episode, "Your'e looking at the new leader of your tribe", sounds to me like it will be something that most likely someone says, either in the show, or in confessional. Most likely someone in confessional, who is an alpha-type. For me, who would most likely utter this, Phillip perhaps in the Ometepe tribe....In Jiffy's pre-game assessment, Jeff says that he’s going to be in or out. “He has a line he’s planning to lay on his tribe....he used to have access to all these secrets”....Jeff thinks, “good luck to you”, will people buy it? I can't help but to wonder if we hear Phillip in confessional explaining his rationale to divulge his experiences in an attempt to be the leader of the tribe and then proclaim the title....in confessional. We all know that Robfadda will more than likely find this quite amusing... If it were to come from the Zapatera tribe, I think it would indeed be coming from RussHell.... Just seems to support a Ometepe loss...I dunno, would love some feedback here. I'm still waiting for the featuring of the boot somehow in the preseason promos....so far I think Natalie has been a bit featured, but we all know she's not going first...   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 02-12-11, 12:48 PM (EST) 9. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" Usually the weakest or the most annoying goes home first. You know, it's the weakest female, or the female who won't shut up, or the alpha male who won't shut up, or the loudest snorer. On the Ometepe Tribe that would be: Christina (oldest female) as the weakest or possibly Phillip, as the most annoying. We have heard Jiffy say that Phillip will announce something to the tribe. Will he come out and try to be the leader right off the bat? On the purple tribe, the weakest would be Stephanie and the most annoying is most likely RussHole -- he's got to be the most annoying ... don't you think? Well, we all know that RussHole isn't going anywhere, at least not for now. So my guess for the first to be shown the door on the Purple tribe would be Stephanie.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-14-11, 03:58 PM (EST) 10. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" LAST EDITED ON 02-14-11 AT 05:23 PM (EST) This post from Missyae includes the erroneous info about Prejean, but also other information we now know to be true. The question we should consider is if Russell's tribe dominating the challenges is reliable and if it includes episode 1? missyae #2739 Posts: 1532 (11/24/10 12:14 AM) Registered User "I was told Prejean and Underwood were in Rob's alliance and Krista was in Russell's alliance, another Natalie. I was told at some point Krista joined up with Rob's group but remained loyal to Russell and outlast ed Russell. Also was told the 2 stars had no immunity and the way Russell lasted as long as he did was because his tribe dominated Rob's tribe in challenges. So, how much of that is true, I honestly do not know this time around, yet. I guess." edited to add: Blackwhales spoilers never said Stephanie goes first, but rather replies to someone else’s speculation about the comparison. He doesn’t seem sure who goes to TC first. Blackwhale: 1/10/11 Stephanie Valencia = Marisa Calihan? That may be so. Not quite sure if its Ometepe or Zapatera that goes to tribal council first, but when Zapatera goes, look for Stephanie to go quick. She and Russell clash. Two days later, after some apparent confirmation he reports that Stephanie goes in the “first half” of pre-merge; no confirmation of a first boot anywhere to be found. 1/13/11 Ralph "Rooster" Kiser will be one of the few brave enough to stand up to Russell Hantz. They get into an argument at a tribal council, culminating in a shutout vote of Rooster's early dismissal from the game. To no one's surprise, Kristina Kell won't be too long for the game. Francesca should be in the later half of the premerge and Stephanie in the first half. Blackwhale responding to more spec the next day… 1/14/11 Rob & Russell are both jury but neither are finalists. Jury is 7, with a final 3, but you probably were able to decipher that from the call sheets. And yes, Rob outlasts Russell in the game. I haven't heard that they face off at Redemption Island - must be that Russell loses before Rob comes. I can't say it as fact but I feel like I would have heard about it if they faced off. Two people are "redeemed" and I believe one is male one is female. One at around the merge and the other at the finale, as you all know from call sheets. Sarita is in the final 8ish or better. She'll be UTR. I didn't say Phillip premerge but you're all right on that one. He's out early. So, Blackwhale is telling us Phillip is “out early” and that Stephanie goes “in the first half”. Who sounds like more like they are voted out first? Krautboy   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-14-11, 05:37 PM (EST) 11. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" LAST EDITED ON 02-14-11 AT 05:49 PM (EST) I was so hoping there would have been alot more discussion in this thread as I prepared for the SOTS, because in my mind, there is alot of evidence to support a win or loss for either tribe. While spoilers have come out, they are not definitive, casting doubt. As you know, some said that Stephenie = Marissa, and "Jeff Probst gave you the first boot", but for me, no one was solid whether or not Zapatera lost the first challenge or not. And, let's face it, there is a lot of evidence to support a Phillip boot, imo. So, I am really willing to weigh all of the options, spoilers, vidcaps, etc. When it comes to the Missyae quote above, I have serious doubt that it's reliable because of the false information that he was fed...Originally, he was told that they did have immunity, or they were mentors as such until the merge, and Blackwhale said the same. This gives us, those of us that want to avoid a documented boot list hope, because we now know that they have no immunity. So, that said, in preparation for the SOTS, I reviewed the Blackwhale thread and here is what I came up with regarding premerge... Speculated to be pre-merge Stephanie - RussHell's Tribe Phillip - Rob's Tribe Kristina - Rob's Tribe Julie - RussHell's Tribe Rooster - RussHell's Tribe Francesca - Rob's Tribe Steve - RussHell's Tribe RussHell - RussHell's Tribe I don't even know when the merge will occur...but I think this should cover the pre-merge boots, no? So far, Rob has 3 premerge boots, and RussHell's tribe has 5. Of course we don't know if there is a tribal swap or not....so, if the pre-season spoilers are to be assumed somewhat reliable, it doesn't look like RussHell's tribe is dominating. But, once again, I'm happy that there is conflict, because again it solidifies that we need to prove or disprove as much as we can! Krautboy: Saw you edited your post above, so I'll respond. I definitely agree. Phillip is my second choice...in my mind it's either Stephanie or Phillip. Things that point to Phillip....time stamps on press images, Phillip retrieving the flag in stoic fashion, Jiffy's you tube video where the only survivor other than Rob v. Russhell he speaks about is Phillip, also the title of the show. I think it's likely that Phillip admits it in a confessional....which I think Rob would find amusing, and then convince the clan that Phillip had to go...Jiffy also said that he didn't know if the tribe would "buy" into what Phillip was selling, casting doubt. So, there is indeed PLENTY of reasons why Phillip is a great choice for boot. I came to Stephanie as a boot choice mostly by the vidcap evidence of Rob taking charge of the puzzle portion of the challenge, and leading it, compared to the more diffuse leaders of the Zapatera charge trying to work together....I may be SOOOO wrong. I am giving Rob the benefit of the doubt, the bird I know in hand, vs. the wild card. Also, with the vidcaps of the Zapatera's seeming to win next week, I thought Phillip would be a better fit then...   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-14-11, 06:51 PM (EST) 12. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" You have laid it all out very nicely...and I thinks it's great that two days before the show, there is still lingering doubt about who goes to TC first. I would be very surprised if someone other than Phillip or Stephanie were voted out first, but I'm glad I'm still undecided. Looking forward to the vote thread! Krautboy   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-14-11, 07:24 PM (EST) 13. "RE: S22 EP1 Boot Discussion" I would like to echo your sentiment, there are good arguments for either. I'm thrilled with the doubt! As they say, may we always be a little wrong...   Top

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