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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 09-03-10, 03:55 PM (EST) "Bootlist Spoilers and Speculation" LAST EDITED ON 09-09-10 AT 04:15 PM (EST) *** SPOILER ALERT…DO NOT READ IF YOU DON’T WANT TO KNOW *** Edited to update with new information: Given all the information already available about the upcoming season, and all the boot list speculation already going on, I thought it might be good to have a place where those who want to speculate can, and those who want to avoid it, can as well. Missyae, Blackwhale, Ooberfan, Jessiiiek, AfricaLover333, TDT, SF and others have already provided more than enough information for spoilers to piece together bootlist speculation for the entire season. While very little has been confirmed, the framework is there for each of us to make an educated guess as to how the game will unfold over the coarse of the season. So, use this thread to discuss your logic and refine the boot order as more information becomes available. Here’s some general information to start with. I’ve only included names where information has been confirmed by recognized sources…you can fill in the blanks! The Numbers 20 Contestants 10 younger (30-) Pre-swap La Flor 10 older (40+)Pre-swap Espada Pre-merge boots 4 women Wendy Alina Yve Jill 4 men Jimmy J. (boot EP3?) Jimmy T. (boot EP4?) Tyrone Shannon 2 younger(30-)...1-male,1-female 6 older (40+)...3-male, 3-female 1st boot Wendy (Espada older woman 40+) 1 double boot (two women, not both 30-) Tribal Swap “pretty early” Younger tribe has majority numbers at the swap. "Premerge Sandwich" Last three boots before the merge: La Flor Espada La Flor Merge at 12 6 women...2-older(40+),4-younger(-30) Kelly B. Brenda Na’Onka Kelly S. Jane Holly 6 men...2-older(40+),4-younger(-30) Marty Dan Ben Matt Jud Chase Post Merge boots (jury members) 5 younger (30-) 4 older (40+) Brenda booted at TC EP before Na'Onka and Kelly quit 2 younger back to back quits (Na’Onka, Kelly S.) Final 3 3 younger (30-) Matt Jud Chase Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculati... Krautboy 09-03-10 1  RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculati... Outfrontgirl 09-03-10 2    RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculati... Outfrontgirl 09-03-10 3    RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculati... Outfrontgirl 09-05-10 4        RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculati... LFJ 09-06-10 5            RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculati... Outfrontgirl 09-07-10 6

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 09-03-10, 05:03 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculation" LAST EDITED ON 09-16-10 AT 02:20 AM (EST) Edited to Flip Shannon and Alina OK, I'll take a stab at it to get things going... Here's a summary of the Blackwhale and Missyae spoilers related to the Blackwhale Sandwich as some background to add to the numbers: Blackwhale wrote: "In the premerge "sandwich," Espada is the "meat" to La Flor's "bread" In order for BWs clue to be correct, the only sandwich that could occur pre-merge would be 1 LaFlor first then 6 Espada then 1 LaFlor before the merge. Missyae replied: “According to my info, this sammich scenario would be incorrect. Is that clear enough for you TDTBS?” Missyae Replied: "Pre-merge sandwich would mean the 3 boots right before the merge, correct? What does that have to do with the first boot? I still do not see how that applies to the first boot. I guess I am still missing it." Missyae Replied: "Yes, BW is credible." Missyae Replied: "I just took it to mean that boots 8 and 6 were the bread and boot 7 was the meat. Like I said, I could be wrong. I just didn't know why everyone had just jumped to the young tribe having boot number 1 and were not even discussing the other tribe." In order for BWs clue to be correct, the only sandwich that could occur pre-merge would be 1 LaFlor first then 6 Espada then 1 LaFlor before the merge. Missyae replied: “According to my info, this sammich scenario would be incorrect. Is that clear enough for you TDTBS?” “I do see a sammich in the pre-merge but mine does not have as many slices of meat between the 2 pieces of bread. I could actually see 3 mini-sammiches on my platter. Some on EsRye and some on LaWheat. Oh no, this is gonna get more confusing if we serve more sammiches post-merge, I see some there too!!!! “ Missyae replied: "Just pick out some names and write them down and see how many sammiches you can get, more than you think. There are some little mini-sammiches there in the middle of the bigger ones. Surely this is more fun than me just posting the entire bootlist and hollering I WON!! Right? Even if someone else does that, at least this was fun." “I don't know if BW is a she or he so I never said they were a she. AFTER it was explained to me what was meant by the sandwich scenario is when I said it was incorrect. If you took the time to write down some names you might figure out if a young player is booted and followed by an old player booted, then a young player again, that is ONE mini sandwich. Understand yet, doubt it. 21 A and B would make most people think it's like 2 seasons within 1, I know I know it's hard for you to keep up so I am going slow. Should I use all CAPS to help you read too? SeeSaw to most would probably mean up and down or back and forth. So the clues didn't suck, you are just a dumbass. Now go back to the 22+ thread and follow OooO over there too. Okay, no more clues, would that make everyone happy now? I can release the first boot on Survivor Fever unless someone else shows up with the bootlist that the minority idiots seem to crave worse than their other habits.” Here's one of several possible scenarios. While it may be wrong, it doesn't appear to contradict any of the spoilers we’ve received so far: EP1 1st Boot: Espada(40+) Female F20 Wendy EP2 2nd Boot: La Flor(-30) Male F19 Shannon EP3 3rd Boot Espada(40+) Male F18 Jimmy J. EP4 ***TRIBAL SWAP*** 4th Boot: La Flor (40+) Male F17 Jimmy T. EP5 Double Boot 5th Boot Espada (40+) Female F16 Yve 6th Boot La Flor (40+) Female F15 Jill EP6 7th Boot Espada (40+) Male F14 Tyrone EP7 8th Boot La Flor (-30) Female F13 Alina ***Merge*** This scenario has six 40+ and two -30 boots premerge, as per Blackwhale. It has the premerge Blackwhale sandwich with La Flor bread and Espada meat. It also has the Missyae mini sandwiches with both Esrye (boots 1,2,3), LaWheat (boots 7,8,9), as well as the 3rd sandwich in the middle which could be considered EspRye or La Wheat, depending on whether you look at it as boots 3,4,5 or boots 4,5,6. The Tribal Swap/Shuffle comes “fairly early”, and there are 6 men and 6 women left at the merge, per Missyae.In addition, the See-Saw is apparent as the Espada and La Flor go back and forth alternating trips to TC. Post Merge is all about the placement of the Brenda,Na'Onka, Kelly S. sequence and who the young dudes take with them to the end game. EP8 9th Boot F12 Kelly B. EP9 10th Boot F11 Jane EP10 11th Boot F10 Marty EP11 12th Boot F9 Brenda EP12 ***Double Quit*** F8 Na’Onka F7 Kelly S. EP13 15th Boot F6 Holly ***Finale*** EP 14 16TH Boot F5 Dan 17th Boot F4 Ben Final TC F3 Matt F2 Jud F1 Chase Krautboy   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-03-10, 07:16 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculation" LAST EDITED ON 09-03-10 AT 07:19 PM (EST) Very nice! OK, I'll take a stab too. EP1 1st Boot: Espada F20 Wendy EP2 2nd Boot: Espada F19 Yves EP3 3rd Boot Espada F18 Jimmy J. EP4 4th Boot: (40+) Male F17 Jimmy T. ***TRIBAL SWAP*** (here or at Ep 3, with even numbers) EP5 5th Boot Original Espada (OE) F16 Tyrone Double Boot EP 6 6th Boot Original La Flor (OLF) Female F15 Kelly Bruno or Alina EP6 7th Boot OE Female F14 Jill EP7 8th Boot OLF F13 Shannon ***Merge*** EP8 9th Boot F12 Marty or Ben EP9 10th Boot F11 Ben or Marty EP10 11th Boot F10 Alina or Kelly B whichever survived Ep 6 EP11 12th Boot F9 Brenda EP12 ***Double Quit*** F8 Na’Onka F7 Kelly S. EP13 15th Boot F6 Holly ***Finale*** EP 14 16TH Boot F5 Dan 17th Boot F4 Jane Final TC F3 Matt F2 Jud F1 Chase Winner: Chase (or Jud)   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-03-10, 09:56 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculation" Putting my reasoning in separate post. Pre-merge Sandwich I believe that the "sandwich" clues from Missy refer to young and old, not the new tribes, so I put an original LF in positions 6 and 8. SWAP I put the swap at Ep 5, for even numbered new tribes. The swaps with odd numbers of recent years have been with an Exile twist, the person not picked goes to Exile and joins whichever tribe lost the IC, so that tribes are even. No exile, so I expect swap at either Ep 3 or Ep 5. Ep 3 allows very little time for the old-young twist to play. Double boot should be at 6-7 because by then they've had a chance to see if they'll have early medivacs and they are tidying up for the merge. Put Yves at #2 because missyae said no matter how well she does she is a true fan, which does not bode well, plus she is going to be the weakest female, and unless Tyrone really implodes I do not see 3 men in a row going. Jimmy J & T we know now. Tyrone for #5 because the double boot is both females and I think it's at 6/7, but if it's at 5/6 then 4/5/6 would be Jill, Alina/KellyB, Tyrone (for sandwich purposes). Shannon for #8, mostly because the merge #s men and women are even. Either Ben or Shannon doesn't make it, and Shannon is more likely to feel betrayed at #8 than if he's booted by a female alliance post-merge. MERGE At the post-merge, the "black widow" comment from Jeff re Brenda, perhaps means that a la Parvati there is a women's alliance taking out strong males, headed by Brenda -- rather than that Brenda takes out her "mate" -- i.e. she does not target Chase. This alliance should be in power during early post-merge so that we can have the bounce back See Saw effect. There are 4 males thought to make the F6, Dan, Sash, Jud, Chase. Six make the merge. Two could be offed by the BW brigade -- Marty and Ben. To qualify as black widows, the original La Flor woman would need to take out Ben, at the least. Marty could be a male alliance casualty, or he could be booted as the old Espada alpha male. The problem with this whole female alliance picking off men idea is why don't they boot one of Jud or Dan instead of Alina/KellyB at F12-10? Another question I have is whether Sash is with Marty and against his "minority" alliance members at the merge. 1) If the idol handoff happens soon after the merge then Marty and Sash have some sort of alliance, probably formed by being swapped earlier to the same tribe. They deflect votes due to uncertainty about who has the idol, and a probable non-target goes. Could be Ben, and could be Alina or KellyB, whichever survived Ep 6. Marty would go after this TC. 2) If idol handoff happened pre-merge Marty and Sash's alliance may or may not still be in effect after the merge comes. In this scenario, Marty could be the merge boot. F9 is most likely mostly the women's alliance against a male-heavy alliance. I'm not sure it would be all women or all men. Na Onka has to be the swing or one of the two who swing. Brenda, Na Onka, KellyS are 3 out of 5. Scenario #1 Holly (friends with Chase) is allied with the 3 women + Chase. She disliked Dan. The 4-person minority would be Sash, Jud, Dan, Jane. Jane would have stayed with Marty and Dan at the merge. Jud would have been allied with Ben and Sash. The reason I think Chase is part of the Brenda alliance is that, according to jessiiiek, Na Onka is trying to make amends by giving Chase the HII. Chase must be at risk then. After Na Onka quits, Brenda's alliance would be down to 3, while the other side still has 4, so Chase would need an idol. Scenario #2 There was a 6-3 vote coming, Sash was with Brenda and Na Onka due to the minority alliance. Sash flipped (or flipped back) to the male-heavy alliance, taking Na Onka with him, creating a 5-4 vote. The 6 would include Brenda, Na Onka, Kelly S, Sash, Chase, and let's say Holly. The 3 would be Jud, Dan, and Jane. Jane because she needs to be there to do very well at the end. This scenario works best if the Marty to Sash idol handoff was at a pre-merge TC. Otherwise, Sash and Marty were in some sense allied 2 or 3 TC's prior. Most likely: probably #1, Sash is not on Brenda's alliance, is with Marty, Dan, Jud, and persuades Na Onka to come with him. Scenario #3 Pure gender based alliances: Chase is on the male alliance, and Jane is with the girls, rather than having been part of an Old Espada alliance with Marty and Dan. Brenda, Na Onka, KellyS, Holly, Jane vs. Sash, Jud, Dan, Chase Na Onka gives the HII to Chase because of Brenda even though Chase is not in imminent danger. F6--Finale After Kelly S quits, Holly would likely be next out, because the power has flipped to the guys. Chase was either with the guys, or survives as the last of his alliance due to immunity, or the others fear the idol. Jane either was with the ladies and survives due to immunity, or because the guys turn on each other. Or, she survives as part of an alliance, and is loyal, until they have to cut her at F4. F5 - Dan (per Mayan Sun, is at least F6) out at F5, or vice versa if Holly wins immunity. F4 - Jane (can't be allowed to make finals) Sash, Jud, Chase   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-05-10, 10:21 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculation" Retooling mine based on new info. EP1 1st Boot: Espada F20 Wendy EP2 2nd Boot: Espada F19 Tyrone EP3 3rd Boot Espada F18 Jimmy J. EP4 4th Boot: (40+) Male F17 Jimmy T. ***TRIBAL SWAP*** (here or at Ep 3, with even numbers) EP5 5th Boot Original Espada (OE) F16 Yves (alt Jill) Double Boot EP 6 6th Boot Original La Flor (OLF) Female F15 Alina EP6 7th Boot OE Female F14 Jill EP7 8th Boot OLF F13 Shannon ***Merge*** EP8 9th Boot F12 Marty or Ben EP9 10th Boot F11 Ben or Marty EP10 11th Boot F10 Kelly B EP11 12th Boot F9 Brenda EP12 ***Double Quit*** F8 Na’Onka F7 Kelly S. EP13 15th Boot F6 Holly or Dan ***Finale*** >EP 14 16TH Boot F5 Dan or Holly 17th Boot F4 Jane Final TC F3 Matt F2 Jud F1 Chase Winner: Chase (or Jud) Notes: F12-10 three are guesses, within these parameters. Marty is most likely F11 or F10, if he gives Sash the Idol at F12 and a third person gets booted who was not on the block that time. Kelly B is one of these three, as spoilers putting her close to finals have not met with approval. Ben could make F6-4 instead of Holly. It depends on whether there is a black widow alliance gunning for the guys. F6-F4 Dan Lembo is one of these three. Jane is most likely the last female standing. Holly or Ben could finish in this range. New info: Kelly Bruno makes the merge; therefore Alina does not. (blackwhale) Yves has the idea for a successful alliance. (missyae). She is not necessarily a leader, per missyae, and is a loyal soldier. The easiest inference for her demise is that she got swap-screwed. As Tyrone played a poor social game, he goes to slot #2. As Jill is friends with La Flors, I have kept her in 7th to give her some time with her new tribe, and have put Yves in the first post-swap slot for Espada.   Top

LFJ 363 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 09-06-10, 09:04 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculation" Admittedly, I know nothing about spoiling, - most of the time, am too wiped out to pay much attention to all of the detail, and appreciate your patience and analysis - ...*ahem - clears throat* You probably discussed this elsewhere? But at quick glance, the bootlist IS a seesaw AND a sandwich - men, women, men, women, men. Or did I not have enough coffee this morning?   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-07-10, 00:32 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Bootlist Spoilers and Speculation" Thanks for joining in, LFJ, it be lonely here with just KB and me! (Not that KB isn't enough, but you know what I mean, it's a group sport.) First, I should say that I don't think my boot list is right. That's why I have so much verbiage. I think that it probably right for Boots 1,3,4, Double boot is two females, timing of double boot unknown. Post-merge: Marty makes merge. Holly goes much, much farther than expected, Jane does very well in game. Brenda, Na Onka, Kelly S is right, but timing is only going by blackwhale. Dan makes Family Visit per MayanSun, which should be F6. The F3 spec comes from one not very credible spoiler, but no one who does know the F3 has stepped up to debunk it. The rest is just speculation. I tried to put in a see-saw. The blackwhale sandwich thing I am not paying much attention to, as I'm not sure it's correct.   Top

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