OK, well, we've been trying to deal with a server load that's only about 400-500 times our normal load (the planets aligned, Temptation Island and the Mole both ended on the same night, and for good measure SS apparently shut their spoiler board down) so this post is a few hours later than we intended.Anyways, this week we are going with the simple pick and going to try and not over think things for ourselves.
First, we're picking Ogakor to go to council (if for no other reason than I personally like the idea of a 6/4 merger instead of another nice and even 5/5 merger) We believe, yes, injury or not, there will be a council vote -- and for whatever reason, be it Liz cheering "let's win one for the Gipper", Ogakor being tired, or whatever -- Kucha will rise above the injury and win the challenge.
Next, we're been reviewing all the "evidence" (gee, that took about 2 seconds, Mark Burnett is being pretty skimpy this time 
), reviewing the user polls, and skimming some of the postings (sorry, it's been a busy past few days).
In the absence of any overwelming evidence that points one way or another, we're going to take the "what makes sense" logically approach this week (somehing we've failed to do a couple of times already this season and come to regret). Our logic tells us that there are three candidates in Ogakor to get booted: 1) Jerri, 2) Keith, 3) Colby.
We are assuming that the alliances of Keith/Tina and Amber/Jerri will stand. Given that, then Colby is the deciding vote.
This presents three options:
1) The other four realize that the time to vote out the biggest threat for the individual immunity challenges has arrived -- and they also hate the idea of Colby deciding their fate -- so Amber. Jerri, Keith, and Tina all agree to dump Colby. Odds of it happening? Let's put them at 10-1
2) Colby -- smart boy that's he apparently is (well, at least he seems smarter than the rest) -- realizes it's not about winning tribal immunities anymore and, seeing Keith as his biggest remaining physical threat in the tribe, decides to team with Jerri and Amber to vote Keith out. Odds of it happening? Let's put them at 3-1
3) Colby is getting really tired of Jerri and realizes that although he can't trust much of anyone going into the merger, Keith is a much better trust option than Jerri. He also realizes that if they keep Jerri, it's probably also going to be difficult to keep Tina in the Ogakor alliance -- and if they don't go in as a united foursome, then any small chance they have is completely gone. So Colby says goodbye to the backrubs and pillow talk and votes Jerri out. Odds of it happening? Let's put them at 2-1
So there are our picks for the week -- Ogakor tribe, Jerri getting voted out, and Keith as the alternate selection.
-SB
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