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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-12-09, 04:10 PM (EST) "First Boot Speculation:" LAST EDITED ON 09-12-09 AT 04:12 PM (EST) From the dynamics shown in previews, it seems that Foa Foa is the tribe going to Tribal Council. Who is safe? We know Russell H. must stay a while to earn his reputation of the "biggest villain ever." He does get off to a fast start as seen in this promo transcript (Thanks Survivor Fever) Announcer: The first night on Survivor, castaway Russell shares an amazing story Russell: I lived in New Orleans...the water was rushing in like... Female tribemates: Awwwww. Oh God. Announcer: But his story is untrue. Russell <in confessional>: I never lived in New Orleans. You can break their hearts by telling them a lie. Using Katrina may be worse than Fairplay using his grandma but that wouldn't be enough to earn him the title. We also see Russell making some alliances: Jaison is in Russell's alliance so he should be safe. Ben and Ashley, Russell's dumb short haired blonde, are safe. Natalie, Russell's even dumber long haired blond, is safe. As TDT speculates, these vidacps show Ashley and Natalie in challenges that aren't from episode #1. CBS gives us the two targeted players, trying to stop Russell: Marisa and Betsy are in danger. A look at Russell's body language in the following vidcaps is a big hint on how he feels about each woman: Friendly demeanor with Betsy. Confrontational posture with Marisa. If we add TDT's report that Mick returned with significant weight loss, the only Foa Foa players that we have no indications from are Liz and Mike. Either could be the first boot but Jiffy tells us that Liz could go far while Mike should have time to make friends. I think Marisa is the first boot of Survivor Samoa   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: First Boot Speculation: PepeLePew13 09-12-09 1    RE: First Boot Speculation: sddorme 09-13-09 8  RE: First Boot Speculation: Belle Book 09-12-09 2  RE: First Boot Speculation: sol 09-13-09 3    RE: First Boot Speculation: Georjanna 09-13-09 4        RE: First Boot Speculation: sol 09-13-09 5            RE: First Boot Speculation: michel 09-13-09 6    RE: First Boot Speculation: Belle Book 09-13-09 7    RE: First Boot Speculation: CTgirl 09-13-09 9        RE: First Boot Speculation: sol 09-13-09 10            RE: First Boot Speculation: Max Headroom 09-14-09 13            RE: First Boot Speculation: CTgirl 09-14-09 15        RE: First Boot Speculation: Outfrontgirl 09-14-09 11  RE: First Boot Speculation: Outfrontgirl 09-14-09 12    RE: First Boot Speculation: sol 09-14-09 14    RE: First Boot Speculation: michel 09-14-09 16        RE: First Boot Speculation: Outfrontgirl 09-14-09 17            RE: First Boot Speculation: michel 09-14-09 18            RE: First Boot Speculation: sol 09-15-09 19                RE: First Boot Speculation: Outfrontgirl 09-15-09 20  RE: First Boot Speculation: Brownroach 09-16-09 21    RE: First Boot Speculation: kircon 09-16-09 22    RE: First Boot Speculation: michel 09-16-09 23        RE: First Boot Speculation: Brownroach 09-17-09 24            RE: First Boot Speculation: CTgirl 09-17-09 25  RE: First Boot Speculation: Outfrontgirl 09-18-09 26  RE: First Boot Speculation: Brownroach 09-18-09 27

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-12-09, 04:29 PM (EST) 1. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Great spec, michel. I don't find anything that would disagree with a potential Marisa boot. The OFG rule also fits as Marisa is all over the previews.   Top

sddorme 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 09-13-09, 03:13 PM (EST) 8. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" I think that the first boot is very unpredictable. Russell H. will be a fun person to watch and even if they show him make an alliance with someone, he'll probably back stab them. But there are people making it past ep 1, so it narrows it down to Mike, Marisa, Betsy, Jaison, Ben, Mick, Liz, and maybe even: Russell H.   Top

Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 09-12-09, 06:37 PM (EST) 2. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" I'd agree -- Marisa is the first boot. Not that I mind -- as long as Liz is safe.   Top

sol 219 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-13-09, 01:58 AM (EST) 3. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Marisa seems like a likely choice. JP says she's out before Ep 5, and says that she has some of the qualities to do well in the game, but it never takes off for her. She says "He may be the devil incarnate" - although the clothing she is wearing at this confessional is different that the above photo with her interaction with Russell. Marisa was also one of the puzzle solvers, and may have be responsible for Foa Foa's failure to win IC. TDT speculates that Galu wins because the photos indicate Foa Foa is shown after the TC, and it is usual to follow the losing tribe back to their camp. From the transcript of the video promo at Survivor Fever Transcript: Announcer: This Fall on Survivor, evil has a new name... Russell H.: My tribe will believe anything I tell them because they're just stupid. Announcer: ...Russell. Russell H.: If I can control how they feel I can control how they think. Announcer: Who on the island can stop him? Marisa, the college co-ed? Marisa: I'm starting to feel like he's pretty slimey. Announcer: Or Betsy, the police officer? Betsy: I usually can get a pretty good read on somebody. Announcer: No one is safe on the new Survivor. Russell: <evil cackle> This seems to be more evidence that Marisa is first off. I read somewhere that Russell tries to weaken the tribe thru spoiling the rice and hiding the flint in anothers bag - weakening someone in the tribe enough to quit, and casting suspicion away from himself. (Rather than performing poorly in ICs.) Moreover, he is going to lie a lot ... and break alliances - so is his alliance with Ashley, Ben and/or Natalie all that save? I was going to consider Natalie (the evidence in S18 indicated the Crazy Sandy was going home first, and JP said Carolina was too cute to be voted off first - and we know how that turned out), but TDT shows her in a future challenge (Ep 3). So Natalie is safe. Okay, I've taken myself around in circles ... and have to agree that the evidence indicates a short stay for Marisa. But I'm still not 100% convinced ... it's too neat.   Top

Georjanna 1316 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 09-13-09, 09:12 AM (EST) 4. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Sol, We might want to add that in the TV Guide Preview of Samoa, JP qualifies his assessment of Betsy as a "major player" with a cautionary "if she gets the chance". G   Top

sol 219 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-13-09, 11:26 AM (EST) 5. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Goooood point G ... that gives me options ... and I feel much better about that. Isn't the first off always surprised and often shocked as if they are blindsided ? Russells friendly demeanor towards Betsey could be a ruse for Betsey and fans alike. As I said above, Russell plans to hide the flint so that someone will quit. The 9 inch rain will douse the fire and someone - Marisa??? - will quit. Marisa quitting would be a surprise to JP since she has had so much experience in 3rd world conditions. BTW, what is the OFG rule?   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-13-09, 12:13 PM (EST) 6. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" LAST EDITED ON 09-13-09 AT 12:25 PM (EST) The OFG rule was named for OutFrontGirl who first noticed that the promos would more or less subtly feature the next evicted player and that the CBS clues usually contain the boot story. It has helped us for many, many seasons. I noticed in the first promos we had when the cast was presented that Marisa appeared in many shots. As Pepe pointed out, the latest promos confirmed that. In opposition, Betsy has only been seen in the latest promo. That could be enough to make her the OFG candidate but more likely the misdirection boot. Players like Mike, Liz and Shannon who have barely been seen shouldn't be voted out in this episode according to the OFG theory.   Top

Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 09-13-09, 12:18 PM (EST) 7. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" If he tries to spoil the rice and hide the flint in someone else's bag so he can weaken someone in the tribe enough to quit and cast suspicion away from himself, Russell's definitely mean!   Top

CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-13-09, 04:57 PM (EST) 9. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" I'm on board with Marisa being the first boot especially because of the OFG theory. With 20 cast members, they need to introduce the bootee ahead of time. There just isn't enough time to get to know all of the castaways in one hour so the vidcaps are outlining the stories for this week. Sol, later on in the season we might not see the bootee highlighted until the Sunday sports promos, but this week, I think it is that neat! Lit up by Agman   Top

sol 219 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-13-09, 08:46 PM (EST) 10. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" The theory sounds pretty good ...and hard for me to argue with ...but ... and you knew that was coming ... last season was Carolina promoted more than Crazy Sandy preseason? Or Candace? Just looking up last seasons first "Time to Vote" thread .... hmmmm: 16 votes for Candace 3 votes for Sierra 1 each for "the oldest, lamest woman", Taj, Bubbles, Erinn and Tyson. Only mattben and smokedog got the right tribe going to TC. (Well, Max Headroom did write down Carolinas name ... Friday morning) So, I just can't buy into the theory completely for Ep 1. It well could be Marisa ... but I just want to be contrary for a while.   Top

Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-14-09, 08:22 AM (EST) 13. "RE: First Boot Speculation:"   Top

CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-14-09, 02:43 PM (EST) 15. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Sol, this place would be no fun if we all agreed all the time, plus we'd never get anything figured out if we all thought the same way. The big difference in episode 1 versus last year is that they have to introduce 20 players rather than 16. That's huge! I agree with OFG that CBS is using the ads to introduce some key people for this season, particularly the first boot because there won't be enough time in the premiere.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-14-09, 01:59 AM (EST) 11. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" OFG theory has been refined and mutated a lot since it began with Krautboy picking up on something I noticed back in Survivor Africa. The editing has changed a lot since then too. For what little it matters, the original theory was in the negative. If someone is not given a good shot in the promos (any promo, not just the one post show), then they are safe. There have been maybe one or two times that the bootee was barely seen, one being Sarah in Marquesas, one more recent. The thinking was simply that promos are more than misdirection, which is how we were treating them. They are also ads for the general viewer that should give the viewers some exposure to the person before the boot episode. A subsequent point I noted way back then was that the bootee may be shown prominently but not always in danger. Some took that as "look for the person who is shown being safe" - but that doesn't work consistently. Depends on whether the editors want to highlight the person't vulnerability or disguise it that week. In general, the boot story will be hinted at in the promos, but not always the first episode. However it seems like they want to start off with a big story this time -- Russell. Marisa did appear in the very first promos questioning Russell. Normally the first promos feature people who will be somewhat important to the game, and a character or two who don't have long for the game and need some exposure. In Gabon, Sugar was featured, and turned out to be F3 although she sure seemed like early boot material. Carolina's boot had no real story. It was her or Sandy and she got a little bossy. It was a blip on the overall story arc of the opening and there was no reason to feature her much. That said, I went to Phoenix and looked at last season, and very interesting. Will put some caps in next post. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_file s/4759d0923e5ccdb5.jpg   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-14-09, 02:15 AM (EST) 12. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" LAST EDITED ON 09-14-09 AT 02:43 AM (EST) michel, LOVE your post, thank you for putting this together, very convincing. For reference, re the OFG theory and last season first boot (which I missed because most everyone here assumed that Coach's team went to TC due to happy faces after a challenge): The First Impressions promo showed Erin and Brendan (Friend or Foe), Jerry and Sierra (Ally, Enemy?), then a transitional sequence and came back with this: Who would you trust? This was followed by most of the players reflected in this drum, but only Carolina's shot has another player in it. Look they put the first boot and the winner together, with Carolina looking distressed and JT standing solidly behind her. Interesting image. Not that we could have known what it showed in Ep 1. In fact, the who would you trust was captioned here as a shot of Carolina, but in hindsight we know that trusting JT was the thing that lost Timbira the game, so that was a big clue we didn't know how to recognize. Sneaky. ETA here is the Ep 1 vidcaps topic from Tocantins: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7130.shtml Not too much I would pick up on re Carolina other than that hindsight shot. Yes, there is a little body language with Taj as they are working on the shelter, but it's very subtle. Last season, they storyline of Ep 1 was the big First Impressions Exile. As neither of Sierra or Sandy got the boot, Carolina really had very little story. If Samoa's first boot is a part of this big Russell story they're developing, say it is Marisa, then I think they would show more. Betsy is just about Jeff's favorite casting choice, so I think we might see more of her if she were going out right away. Also in Jeff's preview he said Marisa will get in with the wrong people and be in trouble ... I guess anyone against Russ is the wrong people. He did not say she WAS out by Ep 5. He didn't know at that point. He was just saying Ep 5 or 6 to indicate the people he didn't think would make it very far.   Top

sol 219 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-14-09, 11:43 AM (EST) 14. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Thank you very much OFG, that does help my understanding that there is more to the theory than the person most prominent in the promos gets the boot. Although it is interesting that Marisa is shown wearing boots, and Carolina wore boots in Tocantins. Also, I often misread JP ... as you point out, "He did not say she WAS out by Ep 5. He didn't know at that point. He was just saying Ep 5 or 6 to indicate the people he didn't think would make it very far. " I assumed that to mean she was out by that time. Oh well, my erroneous assumptions provide material for discussion.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-14-09, 08:28 PM (EST) 16. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" OFG, that's a very interesting vidcap from last season that you found there. It has me looking through this season's vidcaps to find one with that kind of special effects!! No luck.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-14-09, 10:30 PM (EST) 17. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" michel, when I saw that I was shocked. It was blatant yet impossible to guess its significance at the time, only if we had gone back later in the game to look at those first promos. Well, now we have a promo showing Russell allying with Marisa, Natalie, and Ashley, his "dumb girl alliance." (must see video) http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=SPsurvivorvideos#play/uploads (Thank you Phoenix, for putting it on Youtube where we don't have to watch CBS's commercial.) It's very possible that Marisa is one who begins to see through R, possibly compares notes with Betsy, and that could lead to what michel calls the confrontational body language scene. Have you guys scene VG's Handy Dandy Russell Alliance Scorecard? While any one of his alliances could crumble, I don't think Betsy will make it far, because a) as Georjanna mentioned, Jeff revised his assessment of her to say if she gets a chance, which is huge, given he assessed her as potential winner in first impressions. b) His EW interview mentions Shambo as the season's memorable female character, and Jeff also liked Betsy as a "real person" - so I have no doubt if Betsy had played out as Jeff envisioned she would have made his great character list of Russell H, Jaison, Ben, and Shambo.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-14-09, 11:07 PM (EST) 18. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Thanks for that link. 2 things I want to note: - Marisa has the orange skirt she wore at the RC when Russell proposes an alliance while she is wearing her IC clothes in the confrontational pose. There could have been a change in the original plan. - Russell mentions his "dumbass girls" alliance but we know he has other alliances. Therefore, some allies are smarter. Those could be candidates for blindsides and would weaken the tribe. Does Marisa prove she isn't dumb? Or is Betsy the target after all?   Top

sol 219 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-15-09, 00:42 AM (EST) 19. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" When I look at "The Stare-Down" I see a photo that was a fraction of a second in time. Rather than disagreement, or Marisa calling Russell out, it could just be a confirmation on who they are booting. Of course Russell is misleading them all. It is quite possible that the womens "alliance" that Russell has with all the Foa Foa women, except Liz, have talked to each other and Marisa is calling him out on it. But I suspect they haven't talked to each other because he has formed a secret alliance with each. In Survivor: Panama - Exile Island JP talked a lot about Tina Sheer, and the events that happened in her life - her only son was killed in an auto accident just before she was to go to Gautemala - and indicated she would be a fan favorite. Are we seeing a similar build-up for Betsey having overcome an addiction, etc.?   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-15-09, 05:22 AM (EST) 20. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Agree, sol, good points. After seeing the alliance video I found the stare down less convincing, even though michel has pointed out the passage of time. Yes, we know Marisa is going to figure out he's diabolical. Also Marisa says her downfall is that her face shows every emotion, so she can't BS Russell. Betsy, however, could be a more formidable threat and could hook up with Liz. We see that Russell doesn't respect the young girls, but he might respect an older cop's ability to mess up his game. It's a coin flip for me at this point, and suspect it will stay that way.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-16-09, 03:07 PM (EST) 21. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" LAST EDITED ON 09-16-09 AT 03:20 PM (EST) I don't think any of the people that Russell is seen cozying up to/aligning with are in trouble this week since the premise of the ads seems to be that Russell gains "control" over all of them. Russell's probable target, imo, is someone we don't see him talking to in the ads, which leaves Mick, Mike and Elizabeth. I doubt he'd target someone that everyone elected "leader", so that leaves Mike or Elizabeth. Mike's older, not in the best physical shape, plus his chef credentials could impede Russell's plan to make his tribe weak by sabotaging water and food supplies. Mike seems the most likely candidate for First Boot to me. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 09-16-09, 03:21 PM (EST) 22. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Which will probably happen. I haven't got the boot right for the last few seasons in the SOTS.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-16-09, 07:15 PM (EST) 23. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" TDT is mostly in agreement with you, BR. He lists Betsy, Mike and Elizabeth has the likely boots. I'd really like to see the "dumb##### girls" boot Russell's fat behind at some point down the road. If that happens, I'll be happy to have been wrong with this speculation. The one thing that sticks for me is that Russell probably has an agreement with all 9 tribe members, not just the 6 shown, so he'd have to betray someone.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-17-09, 12:28 PM (EST) 24. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" I don’t think he’d make deals with every single tribemate. Someone has to be Foa Foa’s first boot so what would be the point of having a deal with that person? It would be more typical to peg a couple of people to be early targets while simultaneously manipulating everyone else so they will go along. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-17-09, 12:51 PM (EST) 25. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" LAST EDITED ON 09-17-09 AT 02:10 PM (EST) I would not be at all surprised if Russell made a secret alliance with all nine people. As the "most evil" person to ever play Survivor, I am expecting him to break every rule in the book. He wants to control every aspect, so sure, why wouldn't he make an alliance with everyone?! ETA: Russell does specifically say in the video kircon added to her SOTS that he wants to form a dumb blond alliance. I still don't think that would stop him from talking to everyone! And if he forms an alliance with one of the guys that lasts to near the end, we might not see it tonight.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-18-09, 07:38 AM (EST) 26. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Great start, michel! Agree, CT. The girl alliance seemed to me like his project while the boys were working on the shelter. However, Mick didn't vote with him. Mike did; he switched from Ashley to Marisa, even though he tried to talk Mick into an Ashley boot, and apparently it stuck.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-18-09, 10:40 AM (EST) 27. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" Congratulations to michel, kircon, and all the other Marisa voters! (emydi and flopo, please ignore me from now on ) That was an interesting first episode in that the boot was a prominent part of the storyline from beginning to end. That rarely seems to happen. And I'll give the promo editors credit for being tricky by not showing when Russell dapped Mike, just like the others, before they went off to TC, which would have given a clue that Mike was in on things. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

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