LAST EDITED ON 12-14-08 AT 04:48 PM (EST)Right now, with no reliable F3 projections (and a tiny, tiny chance of an F2), I'll just take a guess on the five currently seated.
Marcus: I think he wants to see Bob here: the steadfast, reliable, built-me-a-really-nice-bench tribemate who never got around to any real personal betrayal. Second priority is probably Matty: Marcus strikes me as someone who'll favor anyone he can see as a remote physical threat, attractive in the right light -- in other words, anyone who reminds him vaguely of himself, without quite having that deific aura.
For the same reason, I think he'll go male before female -- but Ken would only get his vote in a Ken/Sugar/Susie triad, and he might be tempted to go Sugar there if Corinne didn't kill him for it while he was in the middle of writing it down. (You don't think she'll be watching for telltale elbow movements on the G?) Susie has his vote if everyone else there dies.
Charlie: We know he's not voting for Ken under any circumstances: Bob is his likely primary, at least for 'I hope he gets there', and should get Charlie's vote in any trio that includes Bob unless Matty breaks off the engagement and learns to flirt in a major hurry.
The Ken/Sugar/Susie grouping is the hard one for him -- he could think about going Sugar there, and I don't think he's very worried about Corinne's ability to seek completely impotent revenge. I want to believe he's enough of a fan that he would want to reward an actual player, and after you factor in how he feels towards Ken, that leaves him with Sugar. A Susie vote would be a throwaway, and he would know it -- he'd have to be totally disgusted with everyone else to cast that one.
Randy: And now we've got a problem. He's managed to put together a pretty good picture of what happened to him and just who was responsible for it. From everything we know about his very resentful demi-personality, he won't vote Sugar. He'll be reluctant (put mildly) to go with Bob, because that was the other major player in his ouster. He doesn't particularly like Ken. Little Miss Susie SwingVote isn't on his list of favorite people. And that brings us down to Matty, about whom he's fairly indifferent, at least in that 'I could watch him die last, I guess' way.
In other words? Wild card. Because he may slightly favor Matty in any group -- but if Matty makes him angry enough at any point, Randy will throw this vote: target: whoever gets hurt the most by it. Randy will not vote based on the game: Randy is going to vote based on how angry he is and how much damage he can make that do. Anticipate ugliness here -- and in any F3 without Matty, this ballot is potentially up for grabs. (Unless you're Sugar, and then you're screwed.)
Corinne: Her vote is going to be all about hurting anyone who ever remotely offended her -- and since people offend Corinne just by existing, we could be looking at the World's Longest Jury Statement. (Figure her question will be a no-win trap for at least one of the people queried, if she can even be bothered to pull one out. I can see her going with 'Tell me why I should vote for you.' (Allows one inhale.) 'Oh, shut up.')
Like so many others, she wants Bob here: at least he tried to save her. Depending on what she knows about the backfire on that fake idol play, she might consider Ken as a backup choice -- but if she's figured out the vote split ploy (not too impossible after that last council, especially if more was discussed than we saw), then he's on the outs. Beyond that, she's firmly into her Hate Zone. Matty? Hates him. Susie. Hates her. Sugar? 'Hate' is just too weak a word: Corinne's whole life is currently about making sure the jury doesn't vote that way. (Not the hardest life, is it?) She's more than capable of the Screw You vote: I didn't get the million, so let's give it to the person who deserves it the least! Give her Sugar/Susie/Matty, and she just might go Susie out of spite -- trying to make it sound like reason afterwards. If she cares that much. Which she doesn't.
Crystal: Will vote Ken over anyone else, period. After that, it's up in the air. She's a potential Susie vote just because Crystal was the beneficiary of that swing: figure her for a long memory when it comes to grudges, but also give her a little short-term for assists. And since the last vote never came out for Crystal's ouster, Susie could always argue that she cast for Matty and it just wasn't seen -- wait. Susie arguing intelligently. Nevermind.
The grudge factor should keep her away from Matty, but she doesn't particularly want Sugar along for this ride, and Bob? She's not an auto-vote for Bob, which puts her in a very rare category this season. (She might consider him, but he's not a mortal lock by any means.) I see her priorities as Ken/Susie/Bob/Sugar/Matty -- but give her the wrong F3, and there's a chance of reshuffle.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ETA a short F5 guess:
Ken: Is he a gamer or a jerk? If he's a gamer, he'll reward skill: Sugar first, then Bob, followed by Matty, and Susie last. If he's a jerk, reverse the order.
Sugar: Matty and Bob as a toss-up (slight favor to Matty going into the vote unless he put her on the jury). Given her love of revenge, she'll make Susie and Ken work for it before refusing to give it to them -- giggling all the way back to her seat.
Matty: Sugar's his primary. After that, he could go with Bob as the hardest competitor. Susie doesn't enter his personal math (1+1=???), but Ken has a slight chance to get this ballot if he throws himself on the mercy of the court -- Matty could be talked around by a 'But I played!' attack if it sounds sincere enough.
Bob: I think this will be a fair vote. I want to believe Bob will cast his ballot based on the game. This puts us at Sugar first, Ken second, Matty third, Susie last -- with a chance to switch one and two based the answers to any questions. But there's a chance Bob could go emotional on us -- and that means Matty would hit primary as a honeymoon gift.
Susie: *tries to think like Susie*
*briefly loses all brain activity*
*passes out*
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I only have one certainty: this will be a very ugly Council.
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
