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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-12-05, 02:17 PM (EST) "EP4 Confessional Analysis" LAST EDITED ON 03-13-05 AT 02:23 PM (EST) Corvis has his confessional Analysis here, and does an excellent job with his detailed analysis based on confessional type: http://survivorthoughts.blogspot.com/2005/03/confessional-analysis-episode-4.html Verucasalt's thread on the editing, should also be used in conjunction with the Confessional analysis to arrive at your conclusions: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5676&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0 Here’s the updated confessional count and analysis for EP4… CONFESSIONAL COUNT ULONG...EP1…EP2…EP3…EP4...TOTAL James...………2…1…2…8...13 Bobby Jon……1…4…5…3...13 Angie…………..6…4…1…2...13 Stephenie……3…3…1…5...12 Ibrehem.………1…0…1…2...4 Kim…...…………0...1...3…5...9 (Boot) Jeff..……………0…5…4…9 (Boot) Ashlee..……….1…1…2 (Boot) Jolanda..………3 (Boot) KOROR...EP1…EP2…EP3...EP4...TOTAL Ian……………2…3…2…5...12 Tom………….2…1…5…2...10 Katie…………3…1…2…2...8 Coby…………5…0…1…1...7 Caryn……….1…2…2…1...6 Willard……….2…0…0…2...4 Gregg………..1…0…2…1...4 Janu………….2…1…0…0...3 Jennifer………0…0…0…1...1 ELIMINATED Jonathan……..1 Wanda……….1 Narrators: At Korror the narrator role shifted back to Ian, from Tom last week. The pattern observed is a shared responsibility between Ian and Tom. As we know, this bodes well for them both. At Ulong, the narrator role has moved around, probably because of there eventual Pagonging. This week was James and Stephenie had the majority of the confessionals. Stephenie served as narrator, while James was the focus of the controversy, and leader during the RC. Stephenie is the closet thing the disfunctional Ulong tribe has to a narrator. EP4 Boot: Kim had the tradional boot episode confessional spike, after an increase of face time last week. As we discussed last week, this season’s editing pattern has changed from last season, probably to accomodate the unusually lopsided nature of the game, and the need to develop the Ulong characters in a more compressed timetable. Under the Radar: At Ulong, Ibrehem remains under the radar at Ulong with the lowest number of confessionals, but did finally get a bit more exposure. and only one this week. Janu and Jennifer were well under the radar this week and continue to be undeveloped as characters. As we know, they are safe this week. Confessional Count Volatility: Dramatic increases ("spikes") and decreases ("hidden") are worth noting because they indicate a change in the editing pattern of a character. This volatility is usually associated with a character moving in or out of danger. Ulong: James had a huge spike, from two to eight confessionals. He has moved into the spotlight in preparation for his likely EP6 boot. I would expect him to be "hidden" this coming week as Angie and Willard will be the focus. Stephenie's spike was a move out of danger, as she took over the role of narrator. Angie, while at the top of the confessional count totals, was "hidden" the last two weeks in preparation for her departure. Koror: The only confessional activity that might be considered volatile at Koror was the appearance of Willard, who doubled his confessional count last week with two. This is a spike for his character, who has been rather disappointing. We also see him in the previews, suggesting that next week may be a boot episode spike for him as well. Conclusions: Given what we know about this weeks departure of Angie and Willard, it's a little difficult to be completely objective in the analysis. So I will let you all draw your own conclusions... Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: EP4 Confessional Analysis DRONES 03-13-05 1    RE: EP4 Confessional Analysis Krautboy 03-13-05 2

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-13-05, 11:52 AM (EST) 1. "RE: EP4 Confessional Analysis" Once again great job on the confessional analysis KB. Do you think it's safe to assume that up to this point there hasn't been a set pattern for confessional analysis as it was last season? I'm having a hard time seeing a patern. Don't get me wrong, I still think these analysis are very important for spoiling purposes. Keep up the good work. I know this takes a lot of time and it is greatly appreciated. DRONES   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-13-05, 02:32 PM (EST) 2. "RE: EP4 Confessional Analysis" LAST EDITED ON 03-13-05 AT 02:48 PM (EST) Drones: You're right, last season there was a more clearly defined pattern. This season the confessional pattern is more or less one of volatility before a boot. We have seen the boots either "hidden" or featured with a confessional "spike" in the episode prior to their departure. So, the pattern appears to be one of change. A dramatic increase or decrease appears to preceed the boot episode in most cases. The editing pattern has been forced to adjust to a very lopsided game this season. If you read Corvis's analysis, which distinguishes between confessional types, he would probably argue that the pattern is very clear, and can be used not only to identify Angie as vulnerable this week, but also identify those most likely to make the final 4. So, while the pattern may not be as easy to spot this season, it's still there... Krautboy   Top

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