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"Oops... We Blew It?(To Merge or Not to Merge?)"
Risti 190 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-12-04, 01:15 AM (EST)
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"Oops... We Blew It?(To Merge or Not to Merge?)" |
Hope you don't mind me starting a new thread for this, but I figured this might be a topic that gets discussed quite a bit over the next little while.At tribal council tonight, Jeff seemed to be asking alot of questions to probe the 'after the merge' strategy that Mogo Mogo is taking on. This was finished with his cryptic comments about 'if and when' there is a merge. This, combined with the fact that we never actually heard Ethan say the words 'Oops, I blew it' makes me wonder if this was somehow supposed to correspond to the tribe in general. The previews for next week are showing a swap, but there is still the See BS bit about a tribe misunderstanding tree mail, which I certainly didn't see tonight. It would break their standard to have two 'clues' like this actual refer more to the next episode than the current, but I can't help but think they may be trying to do just that. Maybe this swap is just that - a swap. They certainly know what it would make the tribes think was about to happen. So, how long could they get away with not having a merge? Could they keep switching up the tribes to make them even, a la Apprentice? Would they pull a Thailand and have them live together without actually merging? The word Ambassador does seem to suggest the typical prelude to a merge, but no hint that that is going to happen has been shown yet. I think, however, in the end, the question remains, how long could they actually function without a merge? I have yet to watch my tape of tonight's episode of the Apprentice, so I don't know if that show has gone to one 'tribe' yet, but it's gotten quite small using the method it has. Does anyone know the timing as to which show MB filmed first? Eventually, however, logic demands the fact that a merge will have to happen. However, I think we can have fun discussing the possibilities for awhile.
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-12-04, 01:37 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Oops... We Blew It?(To Merge or Not to Merge?)" |
Assuming the standard 7 person jury, which they have never deviated from, in order for the jurors to be voting on people they have lived with at some point, there has to be either a real merge or S5-style fake merge no later than the 10th episode. The chance of a fake merge is realistically nil, as none of these players will fall for that after what happened to Shii Ann in S5, so Burn-it ain't gonna pull that one again. A merge doesn't have to happen this episode just because ambassadors are being exchanged. It could still be delayed a couple more shows, and the ambassador swap could turn into a 1 for 1 tribe swap, but 5'll get you 10 they do a merge or a fake merge, probably a real one, in the next show or 2.
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Breezy 18380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-12-04, 09:44 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Oops... We Blew It?(To Merge or Not to Merge?)" |
in order for the jurors to be voting on people they have lived with at some pointThis is normally true but these players already know each other and to some extent know how the others play. I think a delayed merge would be very possible.
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SouperStar 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-12-04, 07:45 AM (EST)
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2. "To Merge or Not to Merge?" |
I think Probst foreshadowed the big twist. No Merge (or a REALLY delayed merge.) Wait until one tribe goes down to 2 and then merge.Everyone ASSumes there is a merge around this point of the game, but you know what happens when you ASSume. You quit.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-12-04, 09:37 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Merge" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-12-04 AT 09:37 AM (EST)>"merge", great way to torture A$$es. You've nailed it, Jazzy. I have no idea how the ambassador thing will play out....are they only there temporarily, to be returned to their original tribes, or are they going to be permanent fixtures to the other tribes, or are they going to merge in episode 8. I have a STRONG feeling that they will not be merging in episode 8....Jiffy's comments regarding the Mogo Strategy at TC, foreshadowing of no merge next week?
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Risti 190 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-12-04, 09:47 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Merge" |
I could see the 'switch a tribemate' ending up being permanent, and that Jiffy will have them do this every other episode from now on to keep switching things up a bit.After all, these people already know other. Cross-tribal strategization is already going on.
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Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-13-04, 06:07 PM (EST)
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8. "How much of a delay is "fair"?" |
I agree a delayed merge seems likely. But assuming that there is still a seven person jury, how long can they wait? I know "fair" isn't a word I should use with Survivor. But it wouldn't seem fair to have people on the jury that didn't see your game for a little first. A swap could fix this issue, but still. If Mogo Ego gets pummeled, how would a swap work? They could have a smaller number on the jury as well. Only 5? Too few to determine such a prize I would think. I'll stop rambling now. Just ideas to ponder.
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SouperStar 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-15-04, 00:46 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: How much of a delay is "fair"?" |
Merging at 9 people. That gives you your F2 & jury.SNews has Kathy in 9th saying she makes the merge.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-15-04, 08:34 AM (EST)
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10. "Merge at 10" |
The SNN "Spy Report", from well before the game started, tells us this: MERGE . Merge seems to have taken place as usual at the 10 players mark. The jury will be made up of 7 players. . Merge camp was at Saboga... This report has been mostly reliable. It appears that the contestants will be teased about the merge, as they are this week, but in the end it will take place at the usual time... Krautboy
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-15-04, 01:45 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Merge at 10" |
This report has been mostly reliable. It appears that the contestants will be teased about the merge, as they are this week, but in the end it will take place at the usual time...Exactly, merge at 10. That would be ep.9 (or ep.10, depending on airing of re-crap). So this week, since the castaways are all anxious about the impending merge, will be nothing but a tease. My take. Tree mail comes and speaks of sending ambassadors. Everyone thinks it's merge-time. Yea! Ambassadors arrive at each camp and don't have any info on merge. Huh? Then another tree-mail comes which describes a reward challenge. At which point Amber wonders if their ambassador is ever coming back. RC is played. The winners share the reward with their new temporary tribemate. Still wondering about the merge. The ambassadors are then switched back just in time for IC. Maybe even at the IC. Just to keep things tense. I predict a normal episode with lots of assumptions. Specially if one of the castaways falls for the merge-like beginning of the show. But you can call me tribe. S7ABCABP Winner "I just had to get those guys comfortable riding the big banana. And they did." King Dicque(RIP)
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-15-04, 01:51 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Merge at 10" |
What Tribe said... Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-15-04, 02:20 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Merge at 10" |
Ditto. It appears that the contestants will be teased about the merge, as they are this week, but in the end it will take place at the usual time... "Usual" is a matter of perception, though. Is it usually when 10 people are left, or is it usually after the first 6 people are voted out? From the latter perspective, the merge is already late. That's probably why Lex thinks it's right around the corner.
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Risti 190 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-18-04, 04:18 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Oops... We Blew It?(To Merge or Not to Merge?)" |
I missed the preview, but it looks as if there is going to be a tribe switch up, which I mentioned before would be one way to have a fair jury without an actual merge. After watching the way The Apprentice has continually evened out the teams, my guess is that these new tribes are going to be a 5-5 split again.Now, if MB keeps doing this(and we know he loves to take twists a couple steps too far), the game could theoretically continue in two tribes for quite some time yet. Down to tribes of 3-3 at least. Anyhow, no editing mention of a merge, other than what was suggested in the previews(which doesn't look like a merge). What does everyone else think at this point?
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