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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-30-03, 11:56 PM (EST) "New strategies with Outcast tribe" Topic of discussion: Krisy Kreme doughnuts - neither crispy, nor creamy... discuss! But seriously, the notion of how 2 booted tribemates fits back into the game has some fascinating connotations. Which tribe will they come from? go to? What will be the Morgan/Drake distribution, since they enter at 4/4? What will be the m/f ratio, since that is also now 4/4, and 2/2 in each tribe? Will there be one M/one F and one Morgan/one Drake to keep things even? Will that be Lil and Burton, who each team has mentioned they don't want to see back but expect to see back? How do the old tribes effectively use their "new" tribemembers to their advantage? What happens if Morgan gets Burton and Drake gets Lil? Is that good or bad? I know some people hate the whole "ghost tribe" idea, but it opens up a whole new game, that no one was expecting! Totally freaking awesome!!!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... FFantasyFX 10-31-03 1    RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... ExInterper 10-31-03 4    RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... Cin 10-31-03 10  Realign with Ghosties mavsfan 10-31-03 2  RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... ceedee 10-31-03 3  RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... O2dawg 10-31-03 5  A New Possibility Ajenda 10-31-03 6    RE: A New Possibility aethelstan 10-31-03 8  RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... rtrui2t 10-31-03 7  RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... badger 10-31-03 9  RE: New strategies with Outcast tri... JohnMc 10-31-03 11

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FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-31-03, 00:19 AM (EST) 1. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" You can count my among those who dislike the new "twist," but I am certainly intrigued by the strategic possibilities as well. I'm most interested right now to see how the Outcast voting will work? There's two ways I can see it happening. Each Outcast member obviously gets a vote which they can cast. Under the first scenario, they can vote for everbody, including themselves. In the second scenario, they can vote for anyone besides themselves, i.e the most worthy member to return. I'm liking the second scenario right now. First, it sticks with Survivor tradition (you can't vote yourself out, why should you be able to vote yourself in?), and seems to fit with the information that we have about which bootees will be returning. We obviously have two tight couples: Ryan & Lil, Burton & Michelle. Obviously, these couples will vote for each other, meaning that each the four above contestants would have one vote. This effectively knocks Nicole and Trish out of the running. Unless they vote for each other (a six way tie but very unlikely), there's no way they can get back in the game. However, they do get to decide who will get back in the game. I would imagine that both women would stick with fellow tribemembers. I can certainly imagine Trish voting for Burton and Nicole going for Lillian over Ryan. Of course, I could be off base here. Who knows what kind of dynamics formed at LL? But I certainly don't think there will be any considerations about whether the returnees are male/female, Drake/Morgan, or so on. Now, the one question that remains is how they decide which Outcast gets to return to which tribe. I'm stumped here. However, if Burton returns to Drake, I can certainly see him try to team up with Rupert again, since he didn't seem to realize that he was betrayed by him. And I can see Lil pushing for Andrew's ouster if she returns to Morgan. I just can't imagine how they will fairly decide which Outcast goes where. Heh, pulling rocks out of a bag, anyone?   Top

ExInterper 3093 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-31-03, 01:03 AM (EST) 4. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" I think that the ghosts only go to a "tribe" for a short time: they probably merge the day after the ghosts return. So they probably go back to their original tribe, and they all become members of Balboa later that day. And I don't think we can necessarily say that Nicole would vote for Lill over Ryan. After all, Lill was the one who ratted out Nicole's plan to ouster Tijuana, and I can't believe that Nicole doesn't know that. Although I know that everyone says that an older woman returns to the game (and I do believe it), Nicole and Michelle seem close from what they showed us in previews and at the challenge: how do we know that Nicole wouldn't vote for Michelle?? The main strategic point for the the ghosts is that they are probably going to end up as key swing votes in determining which tribe takes control of the game. Each original tribe is pissed that "losers" are coming back into the game (and I can't say I blame them) and I don't see Burton, Lil, Trish or whoever being welcomed back with open arms. However, although they may shunned the ghosts for a day or two, sooner or later Drake and Morgan are going to realize that they need their support to get the voting edge, and the tribe that comes to that conclusion sooner, and starts courting the ghosts, will have a HUGE advantage after the merge.   Top

Cin 843 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-31-03, 09:37 AM (EST) 10. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" In a way, Burton was NOT betrayed by Rupert. Rupert was not at the TC where Burton was voted out...... I think if Burton does go back to Drake, Rupert would be stupid not to play that angle. Know what I mean? Cin   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-31-03, 00:56 AM (EST) 2. "Realign with Ghosties" Currently both Morgan & Drake stand at 4 players each. Next week, either Morgan or Drake will lose a non Ghost player (since Ghosts have immunity at the next TC) and wil be down to 3 players untainted by the twist. Lets assume Morgan lose and vote out Ryan O (per the spoiler he was screwed by a swap or something). I expedt they will then Merge and have 4 Drake, 3 Morgan & 2 Tainted returned players. In this scenarion Morgan would be forced to try and align with the 2 Tainted players to avoid Pagonging. Drake Too, will probably try and align with 1 of the Tainted players, but I think the 2 Tainted players have had time to bond, and want revenge so they will likely work together. It makes more sense for the Tainted players to join Morgan where they would be guarantees atleast a final 5 finish, where as joinging Drake only guarantees a final 6 finish. Too, if the returning players are Lil and Burton, I expect Lil would be more willing to swallow her pride and work with Morgan than Burton would in working with Drake. So both Drake and Morgan will try to recruite the 2 tainted players rather than joining forces to vote out the 2 tainted players. Resulting in the 2 tainted players getting much further in the game than they have any right to.   Top

ceedee 183 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-31-03, 00:56 AM (EST) 3. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" IMO the outcasts will want to vote for someone for 2 reasons - first - for someone they like/have a tie to (Ryan/Lil, Michelle/Burton), leaving Nicole and Trish on the outside. Second - for someone they think has the best chance of winning - which is where Trish, Burton and Lil have greater chances of getting votes over Michelle, Nicole and Ryan. Based on both reasons, it makes sense that Burton and Lil come back - Trish only just arrived and Burton and Michelle probably still resent her while the others haven't had a chance to get to know her. There are good reasons for them to go back to either team - they may have a better chance with a new tribe than their old one, but there would be more drama/tension if they did go back to an old tribe - (better TV?). I think MB and Jiffy will opt for a new tribe - just to give them a better shot at staying in, as they'll have 6 days to build alliances before any TC - and a merge would also increase their odds.   Top

O2dawg 68 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-31-03, 02:20 AM (EST) 5. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" I think that looking back at some of the webchat/interviews by the bootees could give us some clues of upcoming dynamics. Here is one thing that I pulled from Lil's webchat about Christa: "CubScoutJo: When Christa came over to loot your camp, did you feel better about her than Sandra? Lillian: Well, I gotta tell ya, Christa came over and they didn't show this but she gave me a hug when I met her and she told me that I had some fans over there on the Drake tribe that were happy I was still there. I believe she mentioned, and I can only speculate a little on this, that there were a couple of times that I just smiled or gave a quiet hello, I didn't have a show off attitude and I think they like that." Lil may already have some friends at Drake, and may give her an edge in the upcoming Outcast TC. I would think that as with Christa, Rupert and Sandra might be her fans, she may fit in at Drake quite nicely.   Top

Ajenda 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 10-31-03, 03:04 AM (EST) 6. "A New Possibility" I know that I don't have a lot of standing in these threads and that my posts are not usually taken seriously for that reason, but has anyone thought about the possibility that it may not be the outcasts voting in 2 bootees, it instead may be Drake and Morgan each VOTING IN an outcast. Is there anything that explicitly says it has to be the bootees voting in an outcast? Just some food for thought.   Top

aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-31-03, 09:08 AM (EST) 8. "RE: A New Possibility" Ajenda, welcome to the boards! Actually, I was thinking the same thing last night. What if they have to put 2 names (one from each tribe, perhaps?). It would change a few things. If it isn't one from each tribe we might expect a 6 way tie with each ghost voting the 2 others from their tribe. If not, Lil is still the best bet since she has friends on the Drake side. For Morgan, it'd be between Trish and Burton. Trish played her looting trip well but none of these ghosts were there to see it. Besides, Sandra seems to have foreshadowed the returnees. -aethelstan   Top

rtrui2t 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-31-03, 03:12 AM (EST) 7. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" I know this has been posted elsewhere, but my problem with this "twist" is that the ghosties are on the jury now since they are immune next TC. That has to change the strategy a lot for those left (non GT) as they now have to try and make nice!   Top

badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-31-03, 09:35 AM (EST) 9. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" it seems to me that because morgan and drake both lost team-members last night, that the outcasts will chose one from each tribe to reenter. because revenge is on the outcasts minds, they will select burton from drake. and because the choices from morgan are somewhat less than stellar (nicole? skinny ryan?!?), i think lil is the obvious choice. i also think lil and burton will have an alliance -- a STRONG alliance. i noticed them side-by-side in several shots from last night. so it wouldn't surprise me if burton was our man-with-a-beard in the F3   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-31-03, 12:31 PM (EST) 11. "RE: New strategies with Outcast tribe" The future as seen by JohnMc First off, we only have 8 people in the game right now. On day 21, we have to be at 9 to know who is on the jury. Math lesson: take your current 8 people, add 2 outcasts, and lose one at the next tribal council. The only time we didn’t have a merge at 10 was S5: Thailand when Shii Ann got… well, Shii Ann’d. Erin became the first jury member to be voted in by her tribe instead of by the merged tribe. We all know how lame is, so history dictates that the merged tribe should be voting out the first merged tribe member and determining the jury. The next thing that has to happen is vote in the 2 outcasts. Here are the ghost tribe members: Nicole, Skinny Ryan, Lillian, Burton, Michelle, Trish If they have to vote someone back in, then let’s just state the obvious: they all can’t be voted back in, and they know it. For them to make an impact on the game, they need to make some strategic reentries. In the challenge, the strongest contributions were made by Burton and Lil. Burton got the team to a huge headstart, and Lil was excellent in tying and checking knots. (I’m sorry, but this challenge was tailor-made for the Outcasts!) If you vote people out for losing a challenge, then if you vote people back in for winning a challenge, it should be Burton and Lil Also, as FFantasyFX pointed out, Ryan and Lil are tight, and Burton and Michelle are tight. Nicole could side w/the Morgan’s to send Lil back in, or she could side w/Michelle w/the “young hot chicks” alliance. Trish could also side with the Drake’s to vote Burton back in, or with Lil for the “old lady” alliance. Either way, Burton and Lil are back. So next we need to have the ghost tribe members re-enter a tribe. Will Lil go to Morgan, where they don’t want her. (Why would they? They booted her!) Will Burton go to Drake, where the only person there who didn’t vote for him was Rupert? My speculation: entertaining television would dictate that Lil goes to Morgan for a day and makes them uncomfortable (mostly Andrew). Also, having Burton in Drake will make Drake uneasy, even Rupert. But it will be interesting to see how Lil and Burton get played by their tribes in order to get their alliance. I think we will see another immunity challenge. Lil and Burton automatically have immunity, but the other tribe members should have a chance for immunity. We’ll see 4 Drakes, 4 Morgans, and 2 ghosts. You can’t vote out the ghosts, nor the person with immunity. But now who is the most vulnerable? Jon is still on the chopping block. Shawn was higher on the list the last time (I mean, who is stupid enough to say, “Let’s not cook the coconut because we won’t have time even though we are hungry and all want to eat cooked coconut/popcorn?!!”, but Jon is still on the bottom of everyone’s list. I say that Jon goes next week, and that Savage wills his way into staying alive by winning immunity.   Top

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