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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 09-27-03, 00:54 AM (EST) "Unspoken Truths" At the beginning of Survivor 3, Ultimate Survivor Tina was interviewed about the upcoming season. If you remember, her advice was to pay attention, not to what was being said, but rather to the unspoken clues there for us to observe. Take note of who was sitting next to whom, who was eating together, which contestants walked together to and from challenges and who was first to get a celebratory hug. The actions speak louder than words and they are much more difficult for MB to manipulate with the editing. The following observations focus on the Drake Tribe and make the assumption that they will be faced with a trip to TC, in which case the tribe members will be forced to begin to make alliances and choose sides in what appears will become a tribe divided. Understanding where the friendships and loyalties lie, may help us to predict the dynamics of the TC voting. EP2 Observations: Camp Life: Rupert and Trish gather wood together and compliment one another. Christa rubs lotion on Rupert’s back. Burton and Jon eat fish together. Shawn and Rupert face off in conflict. Christa and Shawn face off in conflict Reward Challenge: Shawn and Burton walk together leading the tribe to the RC. Tribe lines up Rupert/Sandra/Christa, Jon/Michelle, Burton/Shawn and Trish stand alone in front of Burton and Shawn. Michelle stand between Jon and Burton. Jon hugs Michelle from behind as they assemble. Jon and Michelle walk back from the RC together. Burton and Shawn walk back from the RC together. Camp life: Rupert hugs Sandra as she leaves to go pillaging. Michelle next to Burton as they eat fish. Rupert stands next to Christa as they eat. Immunity Challenge: Burton and Shawn arrive at the IC together. Michelle and Jon walk together behind Burton and Shawn. Trish and Sandra arrive together. Trish and Sandra exchange victory hug. Jon, Burton and Shawn share victory hug EP3 Promo: Shawn and Trish look for treasure together, Burton holding the map. Sandra sitting next to Christa just before Sandra and Jon face off in conflict. Conclusions: Burton and Shawn This is the most obvious relationship. They are always together. It’s not clear if this is an alliance or friendship, but they agree on most issues and it seems safe to assume that these two will agree to vote together if they go to TC. Rupert and Christa Rupert and Christa are often observed together. Christa likes the “big hippy” and both have had conflict with Shawn putting the clearly on the same side of most issues. Christa was also observed nodding in agreement with Rupert’s comment to Jon about not having to hurt the Morgan Tribe when pillaging. Jon and Michelle This was the most surprising relationship. They are together all the time, but quietly in the background. This relationship is being hidden by not showing dialogue between these two, even though we observe them together frequently.. Jon and Burton/Shawn Jon appears to have a weak link to Shawn and Burton. He seems to relate more to them than to others, but still seems to be forcing himself on them at times. Sandra and Trish These two are often observed together in subtle ways. They seem to get along, but both appear to also be independent in their thinking. Sandra and Rupert/Christa Sandra is observed much more with Rupert and Christa than with the “younger group”. If a divide forms in the tribe, Sandra will most likely line up behind Rupert and Christa. Sandra can’t stand Jon. Trish Trish appears to be playing the game. She seems to be getting along with everyone and is not seen frequently with anyone. She is a free agent keeping her options open and could be swayed to vote whichever way the wind was blowing at the time. Relationship Diagram: Rupert+++Christa+Sandra++Trish + Michelle+++Jon++Burton++++Shawn Based on this diagram, in a vote between Rupert and Jon or Shawn, the best Rupert could hope for is a 4-4 tie vote. The danger for Rupert is that Trish may vote with Michelle and Shawn to avoid the risk of becoming part of the minority. Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Unspoken Truths Sophie 09-27-03 1  RE: Unspoken Truths ulalame 09-27-03 2    RE: Unspoken Truths jegas17 09-27-03 3  RE: Unspoken Truths katethegreat 09-27-03 4  Interesting points idiotcowboy 09-27-03 5  RE: Unspoken Truths cowboyroo 09-27-03 6    RE: Unspoken Truths anninvt2002 09-27-03 7  RE: Unspoken Truths dangerkitty 09-27-03 8    RE: Unspoken Truths Krautboy 09-27-03 9  RE: Unspoken Truths Mrs Burnett 09-27-03 10    RE: Unspoken Truths colbyrules 09-27-03 11        RE: Unspoken Truths ShowMeTheWinner 09-28-03 13  J/M common bond Bebo 09-27-03 12  watch the women big idiot 09-28-03 14    RE: watch the women hrc2u 09-29-03 15        RE: watch the spear Mistral 09-29-03 17        RE: watch the women Chez 09-29-03 18  RE: Unspoken Truths frisky 09-29-03 16  RE: Unspoken Truths jsanb 09-29-03 19    Rupert & the women tamarama 09-29-03 21  RE: Unspoken Truths ginger 09-29-03 20

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Sophie 2407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 09-27-03, 01:09 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Unspoken Truths" Thank you so much for doing that. That says a lot that we might not know without it. Michelle and Jon?!?!?!   Top

ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 09-27-03, 03:33 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Unspoken Truths" GREAT analysis, Krautboy! I think from your diagram, it makes clear that Shawn is at risk. We know from what they've shown of Rupert that he is a bit of a wacky guy, but not enough has been shown of Shawn to arrive at that same conclusion. Given his upcoming outbursts, I think he may be a marked man.   Top

jegas17 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 09-27-03, 04:49 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Unspoken Truths" KB, always love your posts and analysis. Do you think Rupert is next if his tribe goes to TC? If Morgan wins the RC and comes over and takes the spear away from Rupert, I think Rupert could completely lose his temper and get voted off. Even without that, his temper doesn't seem to be under control very well because he wears his heart on his sleeve and is an emotional guy.   Top

katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-27-03, 09:05 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Unspoken Truths" Fantastic analysis. Looks like Trish might be the swing vote, and I agree that she would likely vote with the majority, rather than risk a tie. So based on this, Rupert will lose UNLESS Jon or Shawn does something really stupid or annoying, swinging either sub-alliance (Shawn and Burton or Jon and Michelle) to the other side in a TC vote.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 09-27-03, 10:44 AM (EST) 5. "Interesting points" I distinctly recall Michelle hanging out with the Burton-Shawn group too. Perhaps its a Burton-Shawn-Jon-Michelle grouping leaving the rest together defacto. Might explain how Rupert goes early, and how Drake ultimately goes down on the numbers game around the merge (vote out your strongest asset and before you know it your behind the numbers).   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 09-27-03, 11:35 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Unspoken Truths" What if we end up with a 3-3-2 Tie. That's never happened before in Survivor history. I think the teasers allude to a tie.   Top

anninvt2002 86 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 09-27-03, 12:51 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Unspoken Truths" It so makes sense to me, Krautboy, as you always do. I just have one thing sticking in the back of my head. I remember in an earlier thread that JP mentions that the teams finally learned NOT to vote of their strength early in the game. I would find it hard to believe that Drakes first trip to TC they would vote of their workhorse, of course, maybe he was only referring to Morgan tribe. Just a thought.   Top

dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 09-27-03, 01:25 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Unspoken Truths" Another great analysis, KB. And might this breakdown be worth looking at to speculate on the "two tribemates going off alone together" and others wondering what they are doing?   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 09-27-03, 01:49 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Unspoken Truths" Hi Dangerkitty! Nice to see you posting in spoilers again! Markopolo makes the observation in his thread that the two who most likely go off on their own or remain behind while the others go on a treasure hunt are Rupert and Sandra. Marko explains that they are the early risers/hard workers and they don't care much for Jon or Shawn. I think Marko's speculation makes the most sense and also explains how the others would have the opportunity to develop a plan to vote out Rupert... Krautboy   Top

Mrs Burnett 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 09-27-03, 02:53 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Unspoken Truths" KB, to add to your insightful relationship analysis of Drake, I noticed the following when looking at Yahoo's Survivor Insider: Burton & Shawn: - While they are often seen together, in a clip of the group picking mangos, Burton takes the leadership role and seems disgusted with how picky Shawn is about a mango's edibility (i.e, Shawn thinks one mango should not be eaten because there is one bad spot on it). Their differences don't reach the level of conflict that we see in the promo clips between Sandra and Jon, but these two aren't completely "joined at the hip" and may be competing on some level for leadership. - Rupert & Sandra are definitely aligned in an early a.m. worker alliance and call Burton & Shawn "Batman and Robin". Rupert & Christa: - Jon talks about a "rivalry" between Christa, Michelle, & Shawn. The details of the rivalry aren't elaborated. So if this perception of Jon's is true,it seems that Christa might be more apt to align with Rupert than with one including Michelle & Shawn. Jon & Burton/Shawn: - I agree that Jon is only loosely aligned here. He would definitedly want to perceive himself as aligned with and admired by the "coolest" group BUT I believe that Jon is totally clueless about how others view him. In one Insider clip he describes himself as having no sleep problems in the camp and his belief that the others don't mind that he sleeps late and does not help with morning chores. Now really! - Jon also describes entertaining the others by singing (he thinks he is great) and believes that everyone really likes his singing, particularly Burton. Sandra and Rupert: - These two have an early a.m. talk as they are searching for firewood where they appeared aligned in their sarcasm towaward Burton & Shawn. This type of analysis is most rewarding for me, I hope it helps with clarification of personality/relationship analysis. Mrs. B.   Top

colbyrules 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 09-27-03, 10:30 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Unspoken Truths" I think the Jon-Rupert conflict will be the centerpiece of the next episode and will polorize Drake along maturity lines. The mature faction, all of whom are married or engaged include Rupert/Trish/Sandra/Christa, and the less mature crowd includes Shawn-Jon-Michelle. Burton is most friendly with the less mature crowd, HOWEVER he is leaps and bounds ahead of them in his career and his work ethic - it says in Burton's bio that he highly values work ethic. So I asked myself who among the mature group could approach Burton, and I think it will be Trish. I can see Burton respecting Trish by virtue of her age and maturity. Trish approachs Burton and reasons with him that Rupert is a bigger asset to the tribe. He is a big provider and kicks ass in the challenges. Trish swings Burton, and Rupert beats Jon 5-3 at the next TC.   Top

ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 09-28-03, 02:52 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Unspoken Truths" LAST EDITED ON 09-28-03 AT 03:51 AM (EST) I had actually made similar observations to Krautboy after the airing of episode 1, and I had reached the same conclusions. Sandra, Christa, and Rupert are very likely to align together, and Shawn, Burton, Michelle, and Jon are very likely to form the other faction. Trish is probably playing the middle road strategy and is likely to vote where the wind blows. In this situation, I think middle-road Trish'll do well if she goes with the 4-person majority of Burton, Shawn, Michelle, and Jon, and vote out Rupert instead of going for the 4-4 tie. Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional) Hail the purple rock! Hallelujah..... Oh glory!   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-27-03, 11:46 PM (EST) 12. "J/M common bond" Love the analysis, KB. >Jon and Michelle > >This was the most surprising relationship. >They are together all the time, but quietly in the background. This one isn't surprising if you look at their backgrounds, since they are both Virginia Tech graduates. Finding that common bond between them would explain why the two hit it off quickly. Fighting for evil (and neat forums) since 2002   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 09-28-03, 03:24 PM (EST) 14. "watch the women" LAST EDITED ON 09-28-03 AT 03:44 PM (EST) Yep, I also had an alliance/relationship diagram similar to Krautboy's and others. A circle of Sandra, rupert, christa (SRC) vs a circle of burton, shawn, michelle (BSM). Jon is just dangling off the BSM circle via michelle (so file under disposable). The key is Trish, she is connected to both circles via the women. So my prediction is that the men will start to be voted out first because the true power is with the network of women, not those in the circles (above) being shown to us. Watch the Drake women. Edited after reading Marcopolo's hard transcription work : ) to include this: Looks like Michelle may not be so into the burton, shawn circle but more bonded with Christa. So my big messages stands: watch the Drake women progress while the drake men get boy-ponged.   Top

hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 09-29-03, 10:01 AM (EST) 15. "RE: watch the women" I just wanted to add a few of my observations. I think that right now Rupert is safe as, long as they have the spear. Should Drake lose a RC and Morgan discover the spear,and take it away, (Or if the spear, where to disappear and not be found) then we would see the end to Rupert. Everyone, has clearly seen, that Shawn lacks responsiblity when it comes to using the spear. I don't think you could depend on anyone else to go fishing and provide the protein they need. hrc2u   Top

Mistral 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-29-03, 12:09 PM (EST) 17. "RE: watch the spear" Since both tribes now know that their camp will be raided by the victor of the RC, wouldn't it make sense for Drake to make the spear "disappear" before every RC, just in case they lost? I would think both tribes would be stashing away their valuables for this very reason.   Top

Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 09-29-03, 12:28 PM (EST) 18. "RE: watch the women" >I think that right now Rupert >is safe as, long as >they have the spear. >Should Drake lose a RC >and Morgan discover the spear,and >take it away, (Or if >the spear, where to disappear >and not be found) then >we would see the end >to Rupert> > > >hrc2u So, can this be the basis of the "Big Lie-Big Regret"? Someone on Drake (let's say Jon or Shawn) who wants to undermine Rupert, hides the spear. This makes Rupert more expendable. Certainly constitutes a big lie (if not with Caps). But, the problem is, that person is switched to the other tribe unexpectedly. Then they can never get the spear back. They lose their strength due to lack of food. Then they lose a key challenge because of being so weak. And get the boot. That is the regret.   Top

frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-03, 11:29 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Unspoken Truths" You should be getting paid for this, Krautboy. I think that Michelle is the link between Jon and BS (Burton/Shawn). In E1, Michelle and BS were pretty much a threesome. I think Jon is part of their faction via his connection with Michelle. And yes, the Jon/Michelle pairing pretty much boggles the mind.   Top

jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 09-29-03, 12:58 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Unspoken Truths" Michelle seemed disgusted with Jon's behavior at the campsite. I foresee ALL the women sticking with Rupert and voting out Jon first, who is not an aaset in any sense. The women will dominate this tribe in the long run. Rupert will reach the merge.   Top

tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 09-29-03, 02:13 PM (EST) 21. "Rupert & the women" I agree with jsanb -- I see the women dumping Shawn before Rupert -- but I don't see either of them going yet (I see, I see ....apparently I'm channelling some carnie fortune teller) Christa, Sandra & Trish all seem fairly tight -- and seem tight with Rupert. Michelle has certainly been palling around with BS, and Jon, but from what little we've seen, the M/J and BS/J ties don't seem nearly as tight as Rupert with any of the other women. Plus, they've been working well as a tribe, and I think they'll consider strenght & the remaining group challenges before they go after Rupert or Shawn. I just see BS and/or Michelle swinging to boot Jon before C/S/T would go after Rupert.   Top

ginger 22512 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-03, 01:01 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Unspoken Truths" For a chubby little Hummel figure, you have incredible analytic abilities - thank you! >   Top

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