LAST EDITED ON 09-18-03 AT 04:48 PM (EST)

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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Wow, forgive me, its been such a long time since we last did this that I almost forgot that this is the time of day that I'm supposed to post an "official" prediction.

As with just about every other Week 1 prediction, this season also seems to have quite a widespread concensus, so without any additional fanfare I'm just going to refer folks to SurvivaBear's great Episode 1 State Of The Spoiling summary and steal Krautboy's nice prediction logic explanation (shown below)

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The Survivor 7 preseason spoiling has been dominated by a series of on-site reports from Panama. Three separate reports have provided a treasure trove of spoilers, much like ChillOne did last season. The three independent reports corroborate one another, and thereby lend credibility to the information provided. In addition, two of the three reports come from well-respected members of the spoiler community…Snewser, Griffe, Wezzie and QuartzEye. A third report, from Panamavacation, supplements the other reports with corroborating evidence.

Wezzie and QuartzEye Spoilers:

Wezze and QuartzEye went “on location” in late August and came back with a lot of great information, which includes:

”We heard that a young woman goes first...we think it's Nicole.”

The “young women” (still in their twenties) are Darrah, Michelle, Christa, Tijauna, Sandra and Nicole. It’s unclear if they “think it’s Nicole” based on information gathered in Panama or because of other spoilers.

SNN Reports From Panama:

Early Information received from sources in Panama includes:

”Even sketchier is our information about the first two booted. Well, they may or may not actually be the first two booted afterall. The best we can estimate is that it happened sometime in the first two weeks. But there is good evidence to suggest they were at least booted in a particular chronological order.

First of said pair was described as a youngish athletic woman, about 5'6", with short ash or platinum blonde hair.”

The women that could fit this description include Nicole, Christa, Michelle

Subsequent reports were more definitive:
“ Reports to date have helped us identify ousted players. The first to arrive at the Ponderosa is most likely Nicole.” The information is again vague as to why they think Nicole “is most likely”.

Family Visit Challenge:

Spoilers from Bebekid and Mr411 report that Darrah and Christa will still be in the game at the time of the “Family Visit Challenge” which has always been a post merge challenge. They are safe for EP1…

That only leaves Michelle (from Drake) and Nicole (from Morgan) still under consideration, with Nicole the strong favorite based on tips from Panama.

Weight Loss Spoilers:

There are no reports of significant weightloss associated with either Michelle or Nicole.

Vidcap Evidence: Immunity Challenge

We have overwhelming vidcap evidence that Drake wins Immunity. The most recent vidcaps show JP unveiling the Immunity Idol before the Cannon Pull challenge. We also have post challenge vidcaps of a dejected Morgan Tribe, and more recently, the Morgan Tribe walking away from the Challenge site without the Idol. Add to that the vidcaps of the Idol in the Drake camp the next day, and we've got Morgan going to TC. Michelle is safe.

Since Drake wins Immunity, it follows that Nicole must be the first Boot of S7.
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So to recap, that's

IMMUNITY/REWARD CHALLENGE WINNER: DRAKE

BOOTEE PREDICTION: NICOLE

...and on the extremely unlikely chance that the vidcap evidence is wrong, MICHELLE seems as good an alternate selection as anyone else.

Enjoy the show tonight!

-SB