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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS
VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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I'm not going to bore you, clearly JAKE has to be the man. I'll let Krautboy's post explain why:

This week appears to be all about the remaining Chuay Gahns decision to vote out Jake now or later. MB has apparently decided to edit Clay as the most likely alternative.

Recap Show:

In keeping with the tradition of featuring the next bootee during the recap show, we were shown new footage of both Jake and Clay. MB set the stage for this week.

Web Site Teasers:

"Fallout from Tribal Council inspires harsh words from one castaway, causing others to criticize the outburst."

Clay’s comments to Jake after TC are edited to set the stage for the rest of the show…MB includes criticism toward Clay from the other tribe members to create some suspense for TC, some doubt that Jake may survive another week.

"One castaway faces a critical decision that could alter the entire game."

This could be referring to Helen or Brian. Helen has already been shown contemplating whether or not to side with Jake. Brian has been shown having an alliance with both Ted and Clay. This week he will most likely be shown considering dumping Clay for Ted.

The key word in this teaser is “could”. The editing will show Helen or Brian considering the Jake vs. Clay decision, but in the end neither goes through with it.

Immunity Challenge:

Jakes only real chance is winning immunity this week. Since the RC is not physical, the IC most likely will be.

We have vidcap evidence that shows Helen and Jan running on the beach in swimsuits. It appears that the IC is physical and may involve swimming as well as running. MB has previously edited Jake making claims about his strength in the water, the irony of his statement may become apparent this week. Both Jan and Helen are stronger swimmers, and while Jake may be physically stronger, he lacks their stamina. He would also need to beat a younger, fitter Brian. Jake is at a disadvantage in this week’s IC.

EP12 Title: “The Tides are Turning”

The tides don’t turn until EP12, so the Chuay Gahn probably hold together until they are forced to boot one of their own…

Game Logic:

If Helen, Jan and Ted wanted to make a move to get rid of Clay, why risk a possible 3-3 tie? If Brian, Clay and Ted wanted to get rid of Helen or Jan, why risk a 3-3 tie. Regardless of the alliance, it makes much more sense to get rid of Jake first, and to make your move in EP12.
At this point in the game the power shifts to the Jury. Any unnecessary, unforced betrayal would be viewed in a negative light. A vote for Jake is expected and understandable and will not be held against any of the Final 5, since they are all Chuay Gahn and expected to be loyal to one another. In EP12, they have no choice but to vote out one of their own, so any “betrayal” at that point will appear to be an unfortunate necessity of the game.

From this point on, everyone will want to be on best behavior, appearing to play with honor and integrity… this week a vote for one of your own would be viewed as a betrayal, a vote for Jake is a necessary evil.

Jake will leave gracefully, with his character and dignity in tact...

If somehow there is no completion of the pagonnging (hey, we can dare to dream, right?) CLAY seems as good a pick as any.

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE WINNER

Anyone but Jake Seriously since he's apparently being setup as bootee, a nice way to resolve those first 40 minutes of "will they boot Clay?" buildup is to have CLAY win the immunity challenge.

REWARD CHALLENGE WINNER

HELEN -- I'm going to ride the vidcap evidence for this one.

-SB