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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-28-01, 02:37 PM (EST) "Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" I have seen a few people make references to the conversation between KimJ and Teresa where they talked about trying to get Tom to vote against Lex, but I have not seen a full analysis of what was really going on there. If we can figure out what was really underlying that conversation, it might help figure out what will happen next. I see three possibilities. 1--KimJ and Teresa lost their ability to count. As we all know, Tom's vote was not needed because the had KimP's vote and in a tie, Lex would have lost to anyone in a deadlock tie situation based on prior votes. I doubt that they forgot this fact, so something else must have been going on. 2--KimJ told Teresa point blank that KimJ refused to betray her alliance unless someone went along with her. KimJ might have felt that she would completely ruin her chances in the Finals if she totally betrayed her alliance, but if she split her alliance by bringing one of the others along, it would be less of a betrayal. Assuming KimJ said something to this effect to Teresa, she may have been lying to keep Teresa in line (KimJ paid dearly with a vote from Frank by being "frank" with Teresa and letting Teresa know that KimJ would not vote against Ethan or any other member of her alliance) or she might have been telling the truth but was unable to convince Tom or Ethan to vote against Lex. I tend to think if this is really what happened then she was lying to Teresa. 3--MB took this scene out of sequence. This scene might really have happened in the time frame of next episode (I cannot remember who came up with this theory first--it was not me, but I admit it is certainly possible). Again--if this is really taking place next episode, where Tom's vote really would be needed to get rid of Lex, then KimJ was either lying to Teresa to keep her in line or KimJ really wants to get rid of Lex but is not sure they can pull it off. Any other theories? Which theory sounds most plausible?   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? PepeLePew13 12-28-01 1  RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? SurvivorBlows 12-28-01 2    RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? zzz 12-28-01 3        RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? SurvivorBlows 12-28-01 4            RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? sonrod 12-29-01 6                RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? gemstone 12-29-01 7  RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? Swami 12-28-01 5    RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? PepeLePew13 01-02-02 13  MammaKim can count mavsfan 12-29-01 8    RE: MammaKim can count coolbeans56 12-29-01 9        RE: MammaKim can count Serendipity 12-29-01 10  RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? vulcan 12-30-01 11    RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? kellyn 01-01-02 12  SI Evidence this discussion is not ... red 01-02-02 14  RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? Naked 01-03-02 15    RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? gemstone 01-03-02 16    RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count? zzz 01-03-02 17

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-28-01, 03:14 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" There has now been several suggestions elsewhere on other threads that I also like... Kim J. would prefer to wait until this coming episode before making a move. Why? If she made the move before yesterday's TC, she risks having more anger from the oldBorans go against her in a potential jury vote. If she make the move in the next episode and is successful in bringing Ethan (or Tom) with her, then she has to like her chances considerably more being in a final three with Teresa and a fellow Boran in Ethan with whom she's rumoured to have an alliance with -- much preferable than to be in a final four with three strong IC competitors in Lex/Tom/Ethan. This would fit with Lex's venom directed at a guy as seen in the preview if it's Ethan (or Tom) who backstabs him and goes with mamaKim. We've heard talk that they are trying to pull Tom over, but I think Ethan might be the one more likely to consider a switch. Also, significantly, mamaKim can justify her switch in the next episode by saying she didn't betray her alliance because she stuck around to boot Frank and Kim P. and then HAD to switch for survival at this point because she's this weak competitor against three strong guys. The jury can buy into this a lot more easily than if she switched to side with Kim P and Teresa to pagong the men. "It's just funny seeing people that are matched up, everyone has a partner now and everyone's happy. And boy, my camping trip just went to hell." Frank Garrison, Dec. 13/01   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-28-01, 04:00 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" Ak, volmel and I were discussing this in the East Coast thread last evening immediately after the east coast airing: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2052.shtml#40 "RE: *** EP11 Official EAST COAST SPOILER Thread *** " Posted by SurvivorBlows on 12-27-01 at 11:02 PM I've been thinking about the KimJ/Teresa talk and how they were worried about "needing another vote." At the time it didn't seem to make sense since we all assumed they were a) talking about the Ep 11 TC and b) that KimP would be the only 3rd vote they'd need to make LEX lose on a 3-3 tiebreaker vote. But what if they WEREN'T talking about Ep 11 -- what if Teresa had given up on saving KIMP in Ep11 (they both probably fear gonig to the finals with her given her "likeability") and INSTEAD the two of them were plotting for Ep12??? ...the comment about needing another vote would then make much more sense. Perhaps Burnett even included this scene in tonight's episode DESPITE it actually not happening until AFTER the Ep 11 IC??? -SB -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "RE: *** EP11 Official EAST COAST SPOILER Thread *** " Posted by volmel on 12-27-01 at 11:07 PM Webby, just as you were posting that, I was folding clothes and I thought to myself, "I remember the conversation Teresa and Mama Kim had. What if they're talking about NEXT tribal council and try to get Ethan or Tom to vote off Lex". Great minds. __________________ *I* missed you the most. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Yep" Posted by AyaK on 12-27-01 at 11:23 PM Well, here are my thoughts, for what they are worth. As you point out, this makes PERFECT sense as a scene plucked from E12 and no sense at all in the context of E11. The reason for their focus on Tom is that Tom felt most betrayed by Lex siding with Brandon, since Tom knew he was vulnerable due to his prior votes. I have to admit that I gave up on Lex being booted tonight as soon as he won the RC and picked Tom -- because that meant that Tom wasn't going to vote against Lex this episode, and the Old Boran "core" won't change direction without a consensus. I think the plan is to approach Tom, and if he agrees, then (and only then) to approach Ethan -- I still don't see Mama Kim separating herself from her "pack," even with a majority. I also think that ties in nicely to the "No Regrets" title, because just as Colby and Tina didn't have any regrets about booting Jerri, TEK have no regrets about booting Lex. (Of course, as I have documented above, my big-picture decision-making is good, but my fine decision-making is not so good. Imagine this: after hearing Kelly's final chat, I post that Kelly has "told us" that the next three boots are Frank, Brandon and Kim P ... and I still get the boot order wrong every week.) I haven't seen anything that sways me from Tom(4th)-Teresa(3rd)-Kim J.(2nd)-Ethan (1st) as the final four, in order. [/i[   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-28-01, 04:13 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" Thanks Webby. I knew I had seen this theory set out, I just couldn't remember where. I was hoping that by starting this thread we might be able to come to a consensus whether we think it was placed in E11 out of order (as you have suggested) and whether KimJ is lying to Teresa about really wanting to vote out Lex. I really believe that answering those two questions can help in deciding what people think will happen next.   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-28-01, 05:28 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" >. I really believe that answering those two questions > can help in deciding what people think will happen next. IMHO opinion the BIGGEST problem Teresa is going to face with MamaKim is the one that she herself is making -- the problem of why would MamaKim think she'd win versus Teresa in the Final Two? Teresa's agrument (we've been hearing it for what, 3 weeks now?) seems to be that there is no way MK will win in the Final Two versus either Lex, Tom, or Ethan. My question is how does she convince MK that she'd have any better chance in the final two versus Teresa? Think about it... in a MK/T Final Two, the jury would be Kelly, Brandon, Frank, KimP, Tom, Lex, Ethan. Brandon, KimP, and Frank are virtual locks to vote for their fellow Samburu. Kelly is pissed at the way MamaKim brushed her out of what she perceived as her own two-person sub-alliance with MK. Plus Kelly "crossed over" to Teresa's team as she was being ousted. MK has every reason to think Kelly would vote for T. ...right there that's the four votes T would need. And that's not even counting the chances that Tom, Lex, or Ethan also refuse to give MK their votes since she would have "betrayed" them (especially Lex.) A T/MK finale could possibly go down 7-0 in Teresa's favor! The bottom line is there is little chance that MamaKim is going to win this game, but if she goes to the Final Two with Teresa she definitely gets smoked. MK's only chance is to go into the Final Two with another Boran and force the FOUR SAMBURU's in the jury to pick between the lesser of their two "enemies." If she goes to the final two with any of Lex, Ethan, or Tom, the person she goes to the finale two with is likely to get the votes of the other two that are on the jury. She'd probably still get Kelly's vote, and she'd have a chance at grabbing some or all of the Samburu votes, but who knows for sure. But it seems to be her only shot... At this point MamaKim has to decide what she is there to do. Is she in the game to finish 2nd or 3rd and get $50,000 or $100,000 but have virtually no chance at the $1,000,000 or is she willing to take a chance at finishing as distant as 5th but have a damn good chance of winning the $1,000,000 if she can sneak into the Final Two with another Boran? Answer that question and I think you've figured out what is going to happen next week. -SB   Top

sonrod 25 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-29-01, 02:37 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" You're giving MamaKim way too much deductive reasoning and strategy analyzing skills.She has done NOTHING to help herself stay in the game. She is still in the game because she wins absoulutely nothing. She has not even come close to winning anything. She is being rewarded for being inept in both physical and mental challenges. Mamakim has been kept around merely for her vote in immunity challenges to keep the old Boran tribe in control. She might win if she gets to the final 2 by getting sympathy votes. But she won't get there. She had her chance if she had joined the all female alliance and with a little luck actually win a challenge and make it to the final 2, but she would rather stick with her alliance and make it only as high as 4. If there is another twist in the game left ( like having Lindsey and Silas booted ) Theresa will win the next challenge thus forcing the LET alliance to boot MamaKim out.   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-29-01, 03:45 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" "If there is another twist in the game left " Kim P did say there is still a surprise left in the game for us.   Top

Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-28-01, 06:08 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" If this scene was shown out of sequence, is it also possible that the scene of Lex talking about how despirate Teresa is & how she'll do anything to stay in the game is also out of sequence? If he was truly so worried about her being a loose wild card, Lex would have wanted to be rid of her & keep the less savvy KimP. Swami   Top

PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-02-02, 02:13 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" >If he was truly so worried about her being a loose wild >card, Lex would have wanted to be rid of her >& keep the less savvy KimP. Good point... In following along with this and with comments from SBlows and sonrod earlier, let's keep in mind that in each of the prior two Survivors, an elder person was 'carried' along pretty far into the game (Rudy - 3rd, Rodger - 5th) because they were not a threat and they were safe in that people KNEW who they would be voting for and the alliance leader(s) could count on these geezers to follow along and not switch. I suspect Lex thinks he recognizes this in MamaKim to be incapable of switching over to save her shiny ass... which is why MamaKim has lasted as long as she has. Kelly and Brandon were booted because people couldn't trust them to tow the company line and surely if MamaKim had given an inkling she was capable of switching over, she would have been targeted before Kim P. and still allow the oldBorans to have a majority. Now as one other poster in this thread (I forget the name, sorry) reminded us, Kim P. said in her chat that we still have a nice surprise ahead -- can we take her word for it that something will happen or is MB slipping a fin into her pocket to say this? This could have something to do with MamaKim switching over, or it simply could be Teresa lasting longer than expected. I would also say that a MamaKim boot this week would rank as a little surprise to fit with Kim P's comments seeing that more people would probably expect Lex or Teresa to go before MamaKim. "It's just funny seeing people that are matched up, everyone has a partner now and everyone's happy. And boy, my camping trip just went to hell." Frank Garrison, Dec. 13/01   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-29-01, 05:06 AM (EST) 8. "MammaKim can count" MammaKim can count, she didn't want to be in the final 3 with 2 Sambura. MammaKim had 3 possible routes to the $1,000,000. route 1: Jump last thursday to the all girl alliance and vote off the guys - final 3=MammaKim & KimP & Tbird. MammaKim would then have to hope the winner of the final IC challenge (assuming it's not herself) would take her to the final 2. - MammaKIm discarded this due to fear of Sambura loyalty to each other. route 2: Wait to the final 4 (all Boran) and hope Tom or Ethan are willing to break the L-E-T alliance to join MammaKim in voting off Lex and the other Boran. - final 2=MammaKim & Benedict Boran. - this is a good strategy if Benedict Boran is Ethan because, due to prior votes, you can get rid of your 1st choice of Lex or your second choice Tom (if Lex wins immunity again). This is a more risky strategy if Tom is the Benedict Boran because if Lex wins immunity again, Tom & MammaKim both lose to Ethan. route 3: Vote off KimP this week AND THEN betray the L-E-T alliance WITH another Boran & Tbird to vote off the 2 betrayed Boran. Final 3=MammaKim & Tbird & Benedict Boran. final 2=MammaKim & Benedict Boran, assuming Tbird doesn't win immunity. - This is a good strategy regardless of who Benedict Boran is. It doesn't depend on prior vote counts, and The Benedict Boran and MammaKim will certainly select each other for the final 2, forcing the betrayed Boran to choose between the two. I think the fact that Boran voted off KimP THIS week rather than Tbird (which would seem to me to have been the better strategic choice), indicates that MammaKim has selected plan 3 as the best plan to get her to the final 2. MammaKim could have executed plan 3 with KimP just as well as she could have with Tbird, so this is probably a plan Tbird sold to MammaKim and the Benedict Boran. (I think Tbird and MammaKim ALREADY have the Benedict Boran in their pocket). If MammaKim or Benedict Boran had come up with this plan I think Tbird would have left this week and KimP would have stayed - Kim P would be easier to control, and the plan doesn't depend on the Sambura being KimP or Tbird. The Benedict Boran COULD BE Ethan, if this was strategized while Tom and Ethan were on safari. The Benedict Boran could also be Tom, he still feels betrayed by Lex giving his word to Brandon. I think the Benedict Boran could even be Lex, but I don't think he's the one to betray his alliance at this stage.   Top

coolbeans56 33 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-29-01, 11:24 AM (EST) 9. "RE: MammaKim can count" What would be interesting, is if Teresa win Immunity. If Teresa wins immunity, and Boran has to forced to canabalize. I can see a major showdown. Lex and Tom would go after Moma Kim, Moma Kim and Ethan (who I think have that secret alliance) will push for Lex. Then you have Teresa... If I were there (and logic was normal) I would actually cast my vote for Ethan, Causing a 2-2-1 Split. In the revote, Vote whoever you want off. why? Becasue then when final 4 comes along, and Teresa doesn't win Immunity, if she gets herself into a 2-2 tie, she is the only one WITHOUT prior votes. It may seem implausable, but it could happen. I could go through all the possible things, but it comes down to whomever is the single person out of the Boran four couple alliances. If KimJ got voted out, then I would see a 3-1 vote aginst Teresa, but Logic is out the window, and I can see Ethan or Lex jumping ship to save themselves. If Teresa Wins Immunity, watch the Boran Four Shatter like a hot coffeepot hitting cold water. my two cents, coolbeans56 p.s. I really hope Teresa Wins Immunity, I want to see this alliance shattered.   Top

Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-29-01, 12:23 PM (EST) 10. "RE: MammaKim can count" If Teresa wins IC it would certainly make next week interesting. Quite fascinating to see just how the alliance does shatter. But even if Tbird doesn't win, the alliance will be shattering all on its own with the next episodes. This will be almost as fascinating, seeing where loyalties really do lie.   Top

vulcan 56 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-30-01, 01:09 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" i think they were talking in reference to big tom in case there was a =nother tiebreaker whoever had three votes would be tied with tom if it came down to a final four showdown with tom and he convinced somebody from the female squad to join though i was way off next week i will attempt to theorize once again nobody jumps lex is safe for another week and teresa goes bye bye False spoiler note : etahn and lex r the only two not wearing hats coincidence i think not   Top

kellyn 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 01-01-02, 10:31 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" Yeah i hope Teresa wins immunity next week. If she doesnt win immunity next week, i think she is in a very vulnerable position. it seems that the remaining pple are voting according to tribal loyalty and teresa is the obvious outsider left unless she has secured an alliance with Mamakim and another boran which is not shown to us. In the RC last episode, Teresaand KimP were the first to be eliminated and it seems the boran4 (esp the guys) were deliberately targetting them. Anyway, if she wins, the sub-alliance within the boran4 will finally be shown to us. No choice but to cannibalize each other. I think that Mamakim is more loyal to Ethan than Tom or Lex so IMO they could be the secret alliance. Maybe Tom will vote for Lex next week, due to his growing dissatisfaction abt him. i will hate to see Lex (and Tom) voted out, i just get this feeling it will be a boring f3 without these two.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 01-02-02, 08:12 PM (EST) 14. "SI Evidence this discussion is not out of order" This is taken from Ender's Summary of Survivor Insider: KIMJR.: "All I know is what Teresa's told me. Teresa thought Tom might be going to vote for Lex if Lex didn't get immunity but we're... we're not certain of that at all. So.... I don't really know. Teresa's problly - I mean, Teresa's trying to work it from every possible angle cause she knows if I go then she goes next but she knows if she can save me then there'd be a possibility of us trying to go a little bit further in the game so Teresa ummm us working, probably talking at Kim but.... Logically, I think they'll make the decision to vote me off next because I'm the only person who was never a Boran member and they've kind of been... voting in that sequence To me she is saying that to her knowledge Teresa's plan was to work KimJ and to hope that they could also get Tom's vote. It fits with the Teresa/KimJ bizarre discussion of how they needed Tom's vote. I really don't know what to make of it - is it possible that Teresa is unaware of the prior vote rule? Also, here's a quote from Ethan that makes me even more curious as to why they would pick KimP over Teresa - pure faith in KimJ (and everyone's) loyalty? Why don't they think Teresa, who won the bucket challenge, is an immunity threat?: I generally like Teresa - I mean, she's - I mean, she's still scheeeeming - you know - trying to get Kim Johnson against us. But clearly, she's safer to have around than Kim Powers? All I can say is that from the Kelly vote, Ethan was gunning for Kim Powers and I've never been clear on why.   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 01-03-02, 02:07 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" I think the answer to the question "Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" is a resounding NO. I have been thinking about this all week, and I can come up with NO REASON WHATEVER that this conversation took place. below is the actual conversation thanks to Ayak. AYAK ROCKS !!!!!!!!!!!! Teresa: I don't want to see the guys come down to the end. Kim J: No, I don't either. Teresa: If you go up against any of the guys --. Kim J: The guys are going to win, probably. Kim J: I talked to Teresa, her plan was to try to get the girls to get together and maybe round up Tommy and vote against Lex. Kim J: There is three of us, three of them. Teresa: But they want Lex first. Kim J: I don't know if Tom is going to vote for him. Teresa: I say he will. Kim J: You do? Teresa: We get one more to side with us, we could get Lex off. This is the time you got to start thinking who do you want to go to the end with and who do you want off? I think I'll vote for Lex next. Kim J: I'm not stupid. Anything that includes me sounds good, you know. Either Kimj and Theresa are very stupid, or MB edited this thing to death before he released it in order to establish the possibility of an all female alliance thing that never even came close to happening. Theresa has not been in a tiebreak situation except for Carl. There was no previous votes then, so MB did the survial manual thing. The only other tie was the "Sit it" Lindsey EP. both Theresa and MamaKim where over at Boran at the time. Could Theresa and KimJ really never watched S1 and S2 before she went to Africa? If they hadn't studied these games, then They don't deserve to win. Naked   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 01-03-02, 10:40 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" Yes they know about the rule. They told To\L\Ke about Lindsey's votes. Why tell them if it meant nothing? Teresa also knew that the Rats wanted all votes put on Lindsey so only one would have votes at the merge. They both definately knew the tie-break rule.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 01-03-02, 11:07 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Can KimJ and Teresa Count?" naked-- I have been giving this question a bit of thought because I find it very interesting to try to figure out a seamingly stupid conversation. I also think it provides clues into KimJ's strategy. I have been following discussions on this board and others that have tried to figure out what was really going on in this conversation. Clearly, some important parts were left out. Here is where I come out on this issue at this point, although I admit it is very difficult to know for sure. I am convinced that the conversation probably took place in sequence. Teresa refers to 3 and 3, which only makes sense when there are still 6 players. Someone somewhere suggested that they needed Tom becauase Ethan was the intended target--supposedly KimP said this in one of her interviews. I don't buy that explanation either because the quotes above clearly indicate that Lex would be the target. I am also fairly certain that they can count and know about the prior votes rule. Remember it was KimJ that signalled Kelly that Lindsey had 4 prior votes. Everyone knows about the prior vote rule. So what was really going on--this is my theory. KimJ is unwilling to switch alliances. Teresa is pressuring her a lot about switching and points out that they could get rid of Lex on a 3-3 vote. KimJ could just walk away and say, "No way" but KimJ wants Teresa's jury vote. So KimJ pretends to play along. KimJ says that she in unwilling to go the 3-3 route because she would have the wrath of LET. So to make it sound like KimJ is eager to go along with Teresa, KimJ says--well if we can get one more then I won't be alone in my betrayal of LET and I will go along with the plan. When KimJ says this to Teresa, KimJ knows there is no chance this will happen. I think we even have that part of the exchange: Teresa: But they want Lex first. Kim J: I don't know if Tom is going to vote for him. Teresa: I say he will. This is KimJ being nice to Teresa and making Teresa think that KimJ would go along with Teresa if they could get a fourth--in this case Tom. The whole time KimJ knows they will not get a fourth and has absolutely no intention of siding with Teresa. What does this theory tell me? It tells me that unless Teresa wins immunity in E12--she is taking the "walk of shame."   Top

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