LAST EDITED ON 12-28-01 AT 03:39 AM (EST)Krautboy,
I was looking for this thread and posted my reasoning on the Congradulations thread. Although I dislike posting same thing on both, that was more of a "gloating" thread and I want to put the spoiling reasoning from last week over here.
This was an interesting week because I followed outside spoilers even though I didn't see WHY they would pick Sitting Duck Kim, unless Teresa won IC--and I didn't expect she would.
I also picked Lex-lax to win the RC and to take Tom along, because the bourbon surely referred to Tom, and Lex would pick Tom, whereas Tom would have picked LilKim, T, or Ethan...
I figured everyone would hate Lex for winning so many challenges and now this fabulous Reward, and they'd want him gone.
I knew the men vs. women vote wouldn't happen--if it had, it would have been kept in the dark and sprung as a surprise.
So either Tbird or Lex were the big targets (just like next week), and both couldn't get Immunity, so why Kim? I could only think that Teresa, the mover and shaker, would get someone to save her, and that LilKim, like Amber, would go quietly like a lamb to the slaughter, more or less--a "whatever!" grouchy kind of lamb, but basically not controlling her fate in the game, same as she's been since the beginning, riding along until she ran out of friends...
So--why Kim?
Kelly said she had fun on the jury and the Kelly Lodge spoiler was 2-2 so far. I got talked out of Frank last week (to pick Kim), after getting Brandon right, so I thought I would stay with my original conviction of Brandon, Frank, Kim P.
Plus--big spike in face time for KimP last two weeks and nothing pointing to her as target this time. Some thought she was starting to be revealed as a finalist, but I felt she was an Amber or Colleen who lasted a long time because young girls aren't threatening early on, and they flew UTR and weren't obnoxious in comparison to their allies.
In the end though, their lack of real strategizing ability and their "cute" appeal caused the powerful alliance to send them packing.
Per the *OFG* theory (the original simple observation, not the evolved version that includes misdirection), Kim WAS in the second preview for no particular reason--close-ups from her losing a question in the RC.
Even so, so little tension pointed to Kim that I really doubted I was right until the end.
Comment on "OFG" theory--I feel like it's evolved beyond me, but my original idea INCLUDES bootee being shown as target, particularly by being OBNOXIOUS for the OBVIOUS boots--including Jerri, Kimmi, Diane, Linda, Lindsey, and Frank. Therefore Lex being obnoxious in next preview does not rule him out as bootee per OFG, LOL...
I want to add that your post on the CBS poll, which I think we should dub the KB theory really made up my mind to stick to my guns on Kim P. You are right. That poll does seem to push the general website public towards high profile people who do NOT get booted that week.
Next week's CBS poll is up:
Will Lex and Tom remain allied?
Yes--the safari helped them bond
No--Tom will never completely trust Lex again
Maybe, if Tom forgives the alliance with Brandon
Now this poses a problem. The Lex and Tom issue does look to come to a head next week, in my mind anyway. But I know you think it's an all Boran F4. Either way, we have a yes/no question, one of which answers ought to be relevant. Thoughts?
Spoilers for next week
Face time this week:
Lex wins hands down, second Tom, but I discount the reward face time a little. Still, Lex got rehabilitated pretty well with the family video and his good conduct on the trip--and now he apparently freaks out again next time...
The Lodge/Kelly's friends:
we are now down to only 3 days at the Lodge for next bootee, and a plane flight to TC and back each night.
This gives Lex no time to be admitted to hospital for his GUT, and he is ill when he gets home, so he can go any time now.
No need for Lex and Kelly to hang out much, but just enough to where they can bring themselves to a few phone calls later.
I don't think Kelly bonds with MamaKim again at all, meaning that she makes Final 2 after betraying Kelly--thus the lack of mended fences.
Since Kelly bonds with Frank, if Tbird goes this week, Kelly ought to bond with both of them, and T should be on her list of people she really likes, unless--
a) little or no time at the Lodge and/or
b) T's strategy helps her get far and Kelly resents her success.
Lex talked again tonight about taking it to the end. Uh-oh!
Unless he actually does make it a la Dicque, this arrogance is good foreshadowing for an imminent boot.
This is written without a look at Insider for this week.
As always, thanks for providing such a well thought out and organized Hindsight thread, Krautboy! 
With every post full of typos, I ought surely to be learning to Preview
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