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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 10:23 AM (EST) "A Ship of Fools" Well they kept my perfect record of always being wrong alive. I just do not understand these people. Do they have any idea what game they are playing? I have given up on being able to understand what these people are thinking--no, I have not given up--I just don't think I am likely to be very accurate. But I'll keep trying--I am bound to get something right eventually. I will never understand why Brandon was such an idiot. At TC in E8, he states he will go back to OS and vote out Lex. Then, apparently the next day he says that he would rather lose than align with Frank. If that is the case, why say he was going to vote out Lex with OS. Does Brandon even know what Brandon is thinking. OS might not have taken him back--but he did not even try. What a freakin' moron. I take back every good thing I ever said about him. So where does that leave the remaining players: Frank--He knew he needed new allies and he seemingly got them. The question for Frank is whether it is long term or just a one time thing against Brandon (who Tom has said for a while is not deserving to stay in the game). Frank's "word" seems to make him bound to stick by Teresa. So what would this new alliance be--everyone but Lex (and maybe KimP)? That can only last at most one (or two) more TC. I am not sure he has a long-term plan. He is just trying to stay alive by keeping his integrity and working the system one TC at a time. Teresa--She seems to be the only OS who really understood the position there are in. According to KimP she wanted to vote out Lex. That would have put OS back in control. But she either never tried to bring OS back together or found that the gap between Brandon and Frank was too wide to bridge. I think at this point she just hopes to slip through under the radar--or capitalize on an unexpected shift in alliances. KimP--She does not seem to understand the game at all. I am not sure if she voted against Brandon because she was mad at him or realized that he was gone and figured better to stick with Frank who is staying than stick with Brandon who is leaving. She may be too naive to even think that much. I think she has NO strategy left (if she ever had any) and is just hoping to slip through some how. At this point, she may even be ready to leave and it would not surprise me if she got her wish next TC. Lex--My opinion of him went up this week. He is a man of principle--even if that principle is guided by a very flawed "gut." This sense of principle is why he told Clarence and Kelly they were gone. I have some respect for that. He may feel a little isolated and obviously wants to get back with OB immediately. I am not sure they will take him back, but I suspect they will. The core alliance of 4 OB is still a strong way to the end. Lex just has to convince them his actions were not a betrayal. Tom--I wish I knew what he was thinking. In my opinion, he betrayed Lex--not the other way around. Frank voted against Lex the prior TC. Why side with someone that just voted against your ally in favor of someone that just saved your alliance? Maybe Tom was scared that if he did not side with Frank, Frank would be able to align with the rest of OS and boot Tom. But I still think his loyalty to Lex should have made him side with Brandon over Frank. Tom may have had the majority of OB on his side, but I still think Tom's opinion that Lex was not completely loyal is unfair. If Tom now jumps to OS, then Tom would be the traitor. At that point he would have almost everyone mad at him (except the 3 OS). If Tom brings Ethan and KimJ along--then the alliance is too big and would be even at 3 OS and 3 OB (assuming Lex were eliminated the next round). I cannot imagine Tom putting himself in that position. So Tom seems destined to go back to OB, but who knows. These people are so unpredictable. Ethan--I really don't understand this boy. He seemed to tell Lex that he wanted Brandon out because he trusted Frank more than Brandon. I don't understand why it matters who you trust more. Both of them are going sooner or later and before any of the OB. Ethan only needed to trust that Brandon would vote out Frank. Brandon already proved his loyalty by voting out Kelly. If Brandon did not vote against Frank--presumably it would be because all of OS got back together and it would not matter whom OB targeted--either Lex or Tom would be gone. But assuming Brandon would vote out Frank, as I think Ethan believed he would--loyalty after than point would be IRRELEVANT. With OB having 4 and OS having 2 and Brandon arguably alone--who could Brandon align with that could hurt Ethan or Tom or KimJ? At that point it would not matter how Brandon voted as long as OB stuck together. Is it that Ethan cannot count? Maybe--but I don't think so. I think he just did not want a 5 person alliance for some of the same reasons I (and others) thought that Brandon did not want a 5 person alliance. It puts people at a disadvantage at the final five stage if the suballiances are too clear. In this case--as Ethan stated to Lex--this power would be in Lex's favor. Thus, Ethan was clearly stating that he did not completely trust Lex at the end. Of course, as long as Tom and KimJ were committed to voting with Ethan to get rid of Brandon at the final five stage, it would not matter if Brandon and Lex were aligned. But I guess Ethan may have felt Brandon just gave a little too much power to the already power-hungry Lex. Either way--I see the action of siding with Frank over Brandon as a betrayal of Lex. As I said with Tom--Frank voted against Lex just the prior TC. Brandon's loyalty (other than to vote out Frank) becomes irrelevant. As far as what Ethan does now, I think he tries to bring OB back together. I think he recognizes that bringing in any of the OS would be too dangerous. This was just a power play to replace Lex as the leader of OB--and it worked. KimJ--She is still pretty much a blank slate to me. I believe she would have gone whichever way the majority of OB was going to go. It was 2-1 in favor of Frank over Brandon--so I think she went with the 2. Some people read her words as meaning that she has a special bond with Ethan. I did not see that. Maybe she does, and I still think the conversation way back in E3 between Ethan and KimJ supports this, but nothing I saw in E9 makes me see her any more aligned with Ethan than the other members of OB. She sees herself in a 4 person alliance, and I think wants to stay with them to the final four. If both Tom and Ethan want to shift alliances, she will go along--but I think she prefers the comfort of her old alliance. I am not sure how she gets past 4th place, but she may have a suballiance--maybe Ethan--that will work for her and she has NO prior votes. She is actually playing smart by staying out of the fray. Some people think this makes her unworthy. I think this makes her perceptive because overtly making decision can often come back to haunt you. She may be playing the smartest game. We keep saying that the next episode should make the rest of the game clear. Well this was one more week where than did not happen. Maybe next time.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: A Ship of Fools GuessItRains 12-14-01 1    RE: A Ship of Fools zzz 12-14-01 2        RE: A Ship of Fools GuessItRains 12-14-01 9    RE: A Ship of Fools performanz 12-14-01 3        RE: A Ship of Fools zzz 12-14-01 4  Not so foolish AyaK 12-14-01 5    RE: Not so foolish zzz 12-14-01 8        RE: Not so foolish Naked 12-14-01 10  RE: A Ship of Fools red 12-14-01 6  RE: A Ship of Fools LionChow 12-14-01 7  What I don't Understand... Seyz 12-14-01 11    RE: What I don't Understand... Loree 12-14-01 12  RE: A Ship of Fools fyrenice 12-14-01 13  RE: A Ship of Fools alleyb 12-17-01 14

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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 12:00 PM (EST) 1. "RE: A Ship of Fools" (First time poster so be gentle) My take on Tom and Ethan is that even though it wasn't shown much they were VERY aware, especially post-IC, that OS could team up as a bloc of 4 and still vote off Tom who had the most votes. Lex seemed to say as much (Frank will screw you; you're next) in some of their conversations, and I also think Ethan's comments immediately before Tribal Council were made much earlier, pointing out his fear that Frank and T plus Lil' Kim might strategically join with Brandon. To prevent that, one OS had to be recruited to T&E's side. They decided they didn't trust Brandon, who was loyal to Lex but had no reason not to vote against Tom now or in any future TC. That left Frank as the most likely joiner. He had already voted against Silas and made overtures to Lex to join OB. So they recruited him (and T) at least for this vote. Tom said his marriage with Lex is shaky, not over. I actually think it was a fairly effective move; he's effectively wrested control of the M&M tribe and not made any real enemies in the process.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 12:18 PM (EST) 2. "RE: A Ship of Fools" >(First time poster so be gentle) > > >My take on Tom and Ethan >is that even though it >wasn't shown much they were >VERY aware, especially post-IC, that >OS could team up as >a bloc of 4 and >still vote off Tom who >had the most votes. >Lex seemed to say as >much (Frank will screw you; >you're next) in some of >their conversations, and I also >think Ethan's comments immediately before >Tribal Council were made much >earlier, pointing out his fear >that Frank and T plus >Lil' Kim might strategically join >with Brandon. > I think you are right to a point, but the real question is why did it work? Frank had to realize that even though he may have guaranteed that Brandon left before himself, OB is likely to stick together and Frank will be gone sooner rather than later. So why is Frank any more trust-worthy than Brandon. The reason the plan worked was because Frank and Brandon ultimately decided they could not work together (there is some suggestion that this was really completely Brandon's choice). It was in BOTH Brandon's and Frank's interests to work together. If they were going to work together--nothing Tom or Ethan could do to save OB. If they were not going to work together, Brandon was just as reliable to vote against Frank as Frank to vote against Brandon. The real reason I think to side with Frank over Brandon (given that Brandon saved OB last round) seemed to be that keeping Brandon around gave Lex too much power--power that Ethan and Tom did not want Lex to have any more. >To prevent that, one OS had >to be recruited to T&E's >side. They decided they >didn't trust Brandon, who was >loyal to Lex but had >no reason not to vote >against Tom now or in >any future TC. That >left Frank as the most >likely joiner. He had >already voted against Silas and >made overtures to Lex to >join OB. So they recruited >him (and T) at least >for this vote. Tom >said his marriage with Lex >is shaky, not over. >I actually think it was >a fairly effective move; he's >effectively wrested control of the >M&M tribe and not made >any real enemies in the >process. I basically agree with this point. Tom and Ethan have taken leadership of OB from Lex. I think that was the main reason to get rid of Brandon. P.S. This place tends not to tear apart new posters (as some other sites do). Welcome aboard and join in the fun.   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 03:04 PM (EST) 9. "RE: A Ship of Fools" I think we're bascially in agreement zzz. I guess as to why I think Frank is more trustworthy than Brandon, that's pretty much the same dispute Tom and Brandon had in real life. To me, a guy who lies to his own tribemates isn't very trustworthy. And while Frank might sell out his friends, it just seemed less likely than somebody who already HAD sold out Kim P., clearly his best ally. There was no concealing her hurt the next day. Plus, as I said, if OS is taking over it makes no difference who he votes against--he's gone. But if not, as proved true, then he puts himself in a power position.   Top

performanz 46 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-14-01, 12:25 PM (EST) 3. "RE: A Ship of Fools" I don't think that the players are a ship of fools. It is us viewers that are the fools. We are too naive to what it is actually like to be players in the game. These people are all paranoid to the extreme. On the early show Brandon said that the day after voting off Kelly he thought he was a stategic genius. Because with Lex and Tom with all those votes the final 4 was a shoe in. But then he found that even his best buddy KimP would no longer trust him. This is the same reason Sean did not switch in S1 and Amber did not switch in S2. Kelly was also hated so much she lost S1 because she tried to play both sides at the end. Everyone is paranoid, if somebody switches sides they lose the trust of every single player in the game. And if you don't know whether you can trust someone your safest course of action is to assume that you cannot trust that person. Thus you get Lex and Tom not believing Brandon had really switched loyalties and KimP voting off her best friend. My point is that a certain move might look smart or stupid from the outside but we aren't watching Brandon talking alone with Lex one minute then 30 minutes later being alone with KimP. The players are paranoid and should not be expected to always act rationally.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 12:41 PM (EST) 4. "RE: A Ship of Fools" The >players are paranoid and should >not be expected to always >act rationally. Of course--to a certain extent I meant the title as a joke. I do think they act foolishly. The quote of yours I reprinted above is basically what I mean--so I think you agree with me--you just don't like the characterization as "fools". There is some evidence that in the end Brandon changed his mind and never really tried to get the OS back together but rather decided he could not align with Frank. If Brandon had really tried he might have been able to pull it off. Not really trying was foolish. And if he really tried and Frank turned him down, that would have been foolish. OB have had their share of foolish moves (voting off Kelly being a big one). Yes--of course when someone only has partial information and doesn't know whom to believe, he or she is liable to make foolish decisions. It just seems that there is more of it going on here than we saw in S2 (other than Amber). In S1--Pagong was a bunch of fools, but they did not know better. These people should know better.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 12:49 PM (EST) 5. "Not so foolish" LAST EDITED ON 12-14-01 AT 12:53 PM (EST) zzz, I haven't read through all of this post yet, but I want to point out one thing. With regard to Ethan, you ask why it matters who you trust more. Well, in this game (and, for that matter, any game), it matters A LOT! Why? Remember E5, with everyone blowing smoke at Silas? MB showed that to us because of the "twist" that wiped Silas out. But keep in mind that THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS ALL THE TIME, until the game outcome is clear; we just generally don't see it. A good game player will be trying to clear up the smoke and get to a clear outcome. Thus, players who mislead everyone will ALWAYS have problems with their tribemates. In my opinion, Kelly's main problem was not Lex's paranoia, but that Ethan clearly saw the risk of the Kim P.-Kelly friendship ... and also saw that Kelly was the person in Boran most likely to break up his plans for the final stages of the game. He was trying to stay under the radar enough that he didn't fight Lex's illogical plan to boot her, but he was clearly worried about the aftermath. In E10, Ethan needs to be concerned about a possible counter-alliance to him. The worry is that Teresa and Frank, who would clearly like to boot Lex, plus Kim P. (who, stripped of Brandon, is a Colleen UTR-type), will persuade one Boran to jump ship. That Boran is most likely to be Tom, who shares Frank's rural conservatism. Tom, though, is loyal to his initial promise to Old Boran. So Ethan makes sure that Boran disposes of either Frank or Kim P., so such an alliance cannot come to pass. I personally think Ethan targets Frank, because Kim P. is not as much of a threat to bond with Tom, the way Frank is. AND Tom doesn't shift sides. Why should he? He's at least in the final four, and who knows what happens after that? As Webby and I said before, Brandon pulled off the greatest strategic coup in three seasons of Survivor -- persuading Lex to target Kelly -- but then followed it with a truly colossal mistake -- voting along with Lex, thus preventing Old Samburu plus Kelly from gaining control. As I said, his strategy was based on one belief: that Kelly was lying to Kim P. But she wasn't -- she wouldn't -- NO ONE WOULD, because a lie to your allies about voting is the mark of Cain: you can never get rid of it. Kelly Wigglesworth learned that in S1, even though she just made a minor break from the Tagi Alliance (voting for Sean instead of Jenna), but she survived by winning multiple immunities. Brandon learned it this week. From this perspective, the game makes PERFECT sense. Well, except for the Kelly boot.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 02:21 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Not so foolish" AyaK--I think if you read through my entire post (yes--I know it is kind of long--sorry), you will see that I basically agree with your point. Ethan said to Lex that Brandon could turn around and vote against Ethan or Tom because Brandon's only loyalty is to Lex. I think that Lex's response to this should have been that once Frank is voted out, Brandon can vote any way he wants and OB will outnumber him and then vote Brandon out in 5th place. However, Ethan's response to that, which he might not be willing to say but would probably think, is that Ethan does not want Lex to have that much power in the alliance by controlling 2 votes. When it gets down to the final five, Ethan cannot risk Lex and Brandon getting one more vote to vote out Ethan. This suggests that Lex is not Ethan's final 2 partner--at least not necessarily. I agree that Ethan and Tom probably did the right thing voting out Brandon. OB were fools the last time to take out Kelly and put themselves at risk. OS were fools this time for not figuring out a way to get together. But each person in OB basically followed his or her informed self-interest this time. Too bad for Lex he could not get Ethan and Tom to go with Lex, but they were done letting Lex get them to make decisions not in their interest.   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 12-14-01, 03:26 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Not so foolish" <<<OB were fools the last time to take out Kelly and put themselves at risk.>>> I believe that this is not a correct statement. Kelly's boot last week was absolutley esential for the survival of OB. Otherwise, Kelly WOULD have realligned herself in this weeks 4-4 split, and OB would have gone down. The move on OS part though is something that I can not fathom. I am looking forward to finding out what the real alliances are though, because I don't think that they have been revealed to us at all yet.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-14-01, 01:22 PM (EST) 6. "RE: A Ship of Fools" Well, I guess I'll have to join you in also always being clueless and wrong - I really haven't made right pick yet, and I'm becoming more and more determined that Ethan actually won't win this thing, since I've always thought he would... However, I actually do think there was a lot of logic and well thought out strategy going on last night. The main factors being that Ethan did in fact make a power play - choosing Frank over Brandon. And I also believe that one of the reasons OS didn't work is that one of the members (Frank) ended up getting a better offer. > >I will never understand why Brandon >was such an idiot. >At TC in E8, he >states he will go back >to OS and vote out >Lex. Then, apparently the >next day he says that >he would rather lose than >align with Frank. If >that is the case, why >say he was going to >vote out Lex with OS. Actually, I think that was Brandon's plan - he repeated on the Early Show that he thought that would happen. I think the editing cut out an awful lot. In fact, I feel that Brandon's comments about not ever voting with Frank may have been taken way out of chronology. I think whatever went down when Brandon approached OS about voting together was simply eliminated from the show, but I think he did try to bridge that gap and was ultimately turned down. > >So where does that leave the >remaining players: > >Frank--He knew he needed new allies >and he seemingly got them. > The question for Frank >is whether it is long >term or just a one >time thing against Brandon I think Frank may fully believe that a new alliance is forming (and I believe this myself) that would involve himself, Ethan, Tom and someone else. Alliances havent' been destroyed - but the concept you have to ally only with people from your original tribe is being destroyed. Frank has his ace in the hole - his truth to his word. And I believe that this is a bond on which he can build with Tom and Ethan, who I think would play true as well. An alliance with these people is actually a better match for Frank than an alliance with OS. >Frank's "word" seems to make >him bound to stick by >Teresa. Only if Frank actually gave his word to Teresa. I'm not sure that Frank has put himself in any position where he has to be true to her - maybe so, maybe not. > >Teresa--She seems to be the only >OS who really understood the >position there are in. >According to KimP she wanted >to vote out Lex. But in theory, they should have voted out Tom once Lex had immunity. I really don't know where she's coming from. We don't know what went down with OS, perhaps if Lex had lost immunity they would have pulled together, or maybe she knew it wouldn't work because Frank refused to go along. I think Frank is most likely the key in why things went down the way they did. > > >KimP--She does not seem to understand >the game at all. >I am not sure if >she voted against Brandon because >she was mad at him >or realized that he was >gone and figured better to >stick with Frank who is >staying than stick with Brandon >who is leaving. If anyone just made a dumb move its her. And I don't think she realizes. Oh well, she cant' win anyways. > > >Lex--My opinion of him went up >this week. He is >a man of principle--even if >that principle is guided by >a very flawed "gut." I agree - it really is amazing how swayed we can be by the editing. I loved Lex. Then I hated Lex. Now I love Lex. Mark Burnett totally manipulates my opinions - damn him! However, Lex really had to vote with Brandon I think - there was just no way he could with any decency vote against him at this point. It doesn't matter, Lex was in the doghouse (i.e. in danger of being voted off at some point) before he even took Kelly out of the game. I'm not sure Lex had a better option than the way he voted. He may feel >a little isolated and obviously >wants to get back with >OB immediately. I am >not sure they will take >him back, but I suspect >they will. They should - he didn't lie to them. He told them up front that if they wanted to take out Brandon they'd have to do it without his vote, because he couldn't vote for Brandon after Brandon saved him. Sounds fair to me. The core >alliance of 4 OB is >still a strong way to >the end. Lex just >has to convince them his >actions were not a betrayal. I'm not so sure. Maybe. > > >Tom--I wish I knew what he >was thinking. Maybe Tom was >scared that if he did >not side with Frank, Frank >would be able to align >with the rest of OS >and boot Tom. zzz, just because this didnt' happen doesn't make it an invalid fear. Brandon said this was his plan. We all predicted a Tom boot if Lex won immunity. Tom would have been a fool to just sit back and let this happen. Everything the Spoilers boards predicted was a very real possibility. Tom and Ethan demonstrated they weren't quite as dumb as we thought and made an action to preserve OB (and specifically Tom). They didnt' trust Brandon. And we know they had no reason to trust Brandon. So they approached someone who is trustworthy (and closer to them than Lex) and struck a deal. Tom's still in the game. And they are back in the majority. If Tom >now jumps to OS, then >Tom would be the traitor. Nope, dont' think he will. At best Frank will replace Lex or MamaKim. > > >Ethan--I really don't understand this boy. > He seemed to tell >Lex that he wanted Brandon >out because he trusted Frank >more than Brandon. This is valid - if Frank said he'd vote with me I'd believe him. I >don't understand why it matters >who you trust more. >Both of them are going >sooner or later and before >any of the OB. Not necessarily true. You're putting your faith that this person will vote with you instead of doing a double cross that results in Lex or Tom going. Exactly what Brandon planned to do. Making the switch to Frank was smart for Ethan and Tom. This >was just a power play >to replace Lex as the >leader of OB--and it worked. And hence, it was a very smart move. > > >KimJ--She is still pretty much a >blank slate to me. >I believe she would have >gone whichever way the majority >of OB was going to >go. This woman annoys me to no end. Her little self righteous comment about how she's playing nice and good because she's just sticking to her little alliance. All self serving and proud of herself. Yes, voting out Kelly was really sticking to your little alliance. I think she's a total hypocrite. > I am not sure >how she gets past 4th >place, but she may have >a suballiance--maybe Ethan--that will work >for her and she has >NO prior votes. It's hard to know what she's thinking. I can't even begin to speculate. Maybe Ethan likes her because he thinks she'd be easy to beat in the end. She >is actually playing smart by >staying out of the fray. > Some people think this >makes her unworthy. I >think this makes her perceptive >because overtly making decision can >often come back to haunt >you. She may be >playing the smartest game. She may be playing a smart game to get herself to number two. I don't think she's done anything to make her worthy of winning Survivor. > >We keep saying that the next >episode should make the rest >of the game clear. >Well this was one more >week where than did not >happen. Maybe next time. Agreed. >   Top

LionChow 2033 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 12-14-01, 01:32 PM (EST) 7. "RE: A Ship of Fools" > Well they kept my perfect record of always being wrong alive. > I just do not understand these people. Do they have > any idea what game they are playing? I have given up > on being able to understand what these people are thinking > -no, I have not given up--I just don't think I am likely > to be very accurate. But I'll keep trying--I am bound to > get something right eventually. zzz, I have felt the exact same way this season, so I have started the perfect contest for ourselves and like minded folk. Please see the new thread on the Fanatic board called "NEW! The Anti-Bootee Contest". In this contest you only have to pick three people that will NOT get booted off. Perhaps we'll have better luck this way. Shamelessly promoting my own thread, LionChow   Top

Seyz 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-14-01, 03:42 PM (EST) 11. "What I don't Understand..." What I don't understand it why KimP would trust FRANK out of all people more than Brandon. To us viewers.. we could pretty much tell that Frank would vote out KimP without a thought if he could save himself.. while Brandon would NEVER vote off KimP even if it meant sacrificing himself. Frank is getting worse and worse!! If anything he's the one betraying everyone.. I mean going up to Lex for an alliance??!?! Getting Tom?!?!?! It sounds like he'll align with anyone to get further in the game. And.. really KimP is really stupid. I really REALLY don't understand her at all. Didn't she remember that the old Samburus targeted the Mallrats even before the mallrat alliance was formed? (i.e. Day 1) Theresa and Frank ARE NOT Loyal to her at all. I can see why the borans wanted to vote off Brandon.. it meant on less samburu.. and it was safer than voting for Frank because they didn't know that they could really trust Brandon. BUt why the samburus would vote off Brandon defies all logic. And.. I think MK/ETHAN/LEX will stick together.. Tom is the wild-card. My Pick to leave next week is either KimP or Frank. More likely KimP because Ethan and Lex has already discussed about voting off KimP and the borans think she's an immunity threat. Also Brandon says he calls KimP everyone other day on the Early show.. so they probably made up and got even closer (Hey.. you have to be pretty close to someone to call them EVERY other day).   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 06:29 PM (EST) 12. "RE: What I don't Understand..." I think KimP knew Brandon was going to be voted out with or without her vote. So the safest way for her was to vote with the majority and keep herself safe. Plus she was still upset with Brandon. Brandon said at TC on the SI that he knew he was being voted out and leaving that night. He said this when placing his vote for Frank. So KimP would have known Brandon was gone too.   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-14-01, 11:53 PM (EST) 13. "RE: A Ship of Fools" >>I will never understand why Brandon >was such an idiot. Me either! next TC. > > >Lex--My opinion of him went up >this week. He is >a man of principle--even if >that principle is guided by >a very flawed "gut." >This sense of principle is >why he told Clarence and >Kelly they were gone. >I have some respect for >that. What in the world? The man did not want to stick with Brandon because of sense of principle. He has already clued us in on his sense of principle. He told Clarence and Kelly because he was trying to keep their vote. He kept Brandon only because he knew he had him in his pocket. Tom and Ethan were absolutely right in thinking he would use him against them. He did not give them permission to vote. He just knew that there no stopping them. The man is scary. Look how he went off on Frank about how he was acting. He needed to look in the mirror because he was describing himself. He is continueing his tirade in Episode 10 according to the previews. Sorry! but Lex had no heart or honor. He may feel >a little isolated and obviously >wants to get back with >OB immediately. I am >not sure they will take >him back, but I suspect >they will. The core >alliance of 4 OB is >still a strong way to >the end. Lex just >has to convince them his >actions were not a betrayal. I agree and I think he thinks he has succeeded. However, Tom has showed us that he has some brains. > >Tom--I wish I knew what he >was thinking. In my >opinion, he betrayed Lex--not the >other way around. Frank >voted against Lex the prior >TC. Why side with >someone that just voted against >your ally in favor of >someone that just saved your >alliance? Why? to win of course. Who do you think Ethan will take to FTC. Lex of course. If Tom can take him out, and bring Teresa, Frank, and MammaKim to TC, who do you think Ethan will side with. Maybe Tom was >scared that if he did >not side with Frank, Frank >would be able to align >with the rest of OS >and boot Tom. \ A valid fear. Not to mention, Lex showed that Brandon meant more to him than Ethan and Tom's fears. >I still think his loyalty >to Lex should have made >him side with Brandon over >Frank. Tom may have >had the majority of OB >on his side, but I >still think Tom's opinion that >Lex was not completely loyal >is unfair. Unfair! Lex was in the minority. He should have listened to the fears of his alliance. He made a choice opposite to the rest of his alliance. Tom was not the only one to vote Brandon, you know. If Tom >now jumps to OS, then >Tom would be the traitor. > At that point he >would have almost everyone mad >at him (except the 3 >OS). If Tom brings >Ethan and KimJ along--then the >alliance is too big and >would be even at 3 >OS and 3 OB (assuming >Lex were eliminated the next >round). I cannot imagine >Tom putting himself in that >position. So Tom seems >destined to go back to >OB, but who knows. >These people are so unpredictable. Tom would only be making Lex and possibly MammaKim mad at him. The other jurors would applaud him. Ethan would still be in the final two. His vote would not count. > >Ethan--I really don't understand this boy. > He seemed to tell >Lex that he wanted Brandon >out because he trusted Frank >more than Brandon. I >don't understand why it matters >who you trust more. >Both of them are going >sooner or later and before >any of the OB. When was Lex going to turn on him. After they voted Frank, Teresa, and LittleKim, this would only benefit Lex not the rest of the alliance. IMHO, Ethan trusted Frank more than Lex not Brandon. >Ethan only needed to trust >that Brandon would vote out >Frank. Brandon already proved >his loyalty by voting out >Kelly. If Brandon did >not vote against Frank--presumably it >would be because all of >OS got back together and >it would not matter whom >OB targeted--either Lex or Tom >would be gone. But >assuming Brandon would vote out >Frank, as I think Ethan >believed he would--loyalty after than >point would be IRRELEVANT. >With OB having 4 and >OS having 2 and Brandon >arguably alone--who could Brandon align >with that could hurt Ethan >or Tom or KimJ? HMMM! Lex. . > It puts people at >a disadvantage at the final >five stage if the suballiances >are too clear. In >this case--as Ethan stated to >Lex--this power would be in >Lex's favor. Thus, Ethan >was clearly stating that he >did not completely trust Lex >at the end. Of >course, as long as Tom >and KimJ were committed to >voting with Ethan to get >rid of Brandon at the >final five stage, it would >not matter if Brandon and >Lex were aligned. But >I guess Ethan may have >felt Brandon just gave a >little too much power to >the already power-hungry Lex. > Yep! > As far as what >Ethan does now, I think >he tries to bring OB >back together. I think >he recognizes that bringing in >any of the OS would >be too dangerous. This >was just a power play >to replace Lex as the >leader of OB--and it worked. Good for him. > > >KimJ--She is still pretty much a >blank slate to me. >I believe she would have >gone whichever way the majority >of OB was going to >go. It was 2-1 in >favor of Frank over Brandon--so >I think she went with >the 2. Some people >read her words as meaning >that she has a special >bond with Ethan. I >did not see that. >Maybe she does, and I >still think the conversation way >back in E3 between Ethan >and KimJ supports this, but >nothing I saw in E9 >makes me see her any >more aligned with Ethan than >the other members of OB. > She sees herself in >a 4 person alliance, and >I think wants to stay >with them to the final >four. If both Tom >and Ethan want to shift >alliances, she will go along--but >I think she prefers the >comfort of her old alliance. I agree. I do not think she will go past three if she even makes that. Fyre   Top

alleyb 98 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-17-01, 01:36 AM (EST) 14. "RE: A Ship of Fools" Thanks zzz for posting much of what I have been thinking, and for giving me hope that there may still be someone who is strategic enough to deserve to win in the end. After Ep. 9 I found myself disgusted with everyone left in the game. Both Richard Hatch and Tina Wesson were edited to prove that they were the strategic masterminds of their respective Survivors. Who is left that can truly claim that title now in S3? Most of the remaining survivors have been playing on emotion rather than strategy, and do not deserve to win (IMHO). In Ep. 8 I felt that the Borans slit their own throats, and good riddance! If they were stupid enough to even up the numbers with Samburu over Lex's gut feelings, then they deserved to lose the game. But in Ep. 9 they finally realized that Lex wasn't the best person to be dictating the votes, and they went against him, which pulls them back up a notch in my opinion of them. They still took a HUGE strategic risk, but it paid off for them when Samburu's split couldn't recover from Brandon's colossal mistake in judgement. On the other hand, the Samburus proved to be total idiots for not capitalizing on a chance to take control of the game. Sure, everyone would have had to suck up Brandon's duplicitousness, but it would have been a risk worth taking. My take on the remaining survivors: KimP: Playing totally on emotion, and has no long term strategy. With Brandon gone, she is totally hung out to dry. Since Kelly & Brandon have talked about how tight they are with her now, I would be surprised if she doesn't get booted in the next Ep. (or two). (Thus catapulting the average age of the remaining survivors to 42!--Again it seems that no one under 35 will ever win this game.) Frank: So far he has been totally driven by a crazed sense of honor, which doesn't leave much room for strategy. He does have potential, since he has a protective alliance with Teresa, and has found someone who he knows he can trust in Tom. Whether he can truly pull Tom away from Boran will be a big obstacle, but at least he knows that Tom will honor a handshake. Did the handshake encompass more than booting Brandon? Doubtful. But a beginning of trust has been started. As much as I hate to admit it, he has a shot of pulling it together through Teresa and Tom, with Teresa pulling KimP (or KimJ?) along for extra padding. Ultimately I just don't think he has enough of a strategic mind to pull it together, though, but he just might get lucky. He doesn't deserve to win in the end, though (a strategic mastermind he is not!) Teresa: She stumbled upon the best survivor strategy to date--throw a vote at someone who is emotionally vulnerable, then keep quiet about it and let that person fall on their own sword. Sure, she wasn't able to ride it into control of the game, but it did push her farther along in it. Now...will she be able to pull KimP, Frank and one Boran (KimJ or Tom?) together to even up the numbers? Very doubtful that the Boran would allow that to happen again. She'll probably be the last remaining Samburu, which could put her in a position as a swing vote between the remaining Borans. This could prove her worthy of the win in the end, if she can pull it off and stick around to the Final 2. A big IF. Lex: He's dug his own grave. He has dictated Boran's vote all along, and now knows that he can't control them any more. I think he'll be gone in the next couple of Eps, especially considering Kelly's comments in interviews about calling him and telling him he didn't look as bad as she thought he would. This implied to me that Kelly and Lex had a chance to discuss how it would be edited to make Lex look (as Kelly seemed compelled to reassure him that he didn't come off too bad). Seeing as they had little contact since the show taped, this discussion would only have happened at the Jury lodge. This may be a stretch, but my gut feeling is that they had some time to discuss it before the game ended. Tom: He has managed to get into a position of power. He can stick with Boran to oust KimP, but has pull with Frank (and Teresa by association) to weed out the IC threats of Lex and Ethan after that. How strong is his alliance to KimJ and Ethan? We've been shown little to convince me that he has a strong alliance with either--so far it has been an alliance of convenience. Boran seems to have been held together by Lex (until Ep. 9), and now Lex's leadership position has been broken. Will Tom go back to Boran and stick with Lex, or will he now be more inclined to further his bond with Frank (who he sees as a man of honor)? The Tom/Frank bond could be the key to everything. KimJ: The enigma. She has been playing her cards very close to her chest (at least in the editing). Does she have any bond with Teresa? How strong are her bonds to Ethan/Tom/Lex? Her statement about going with her alliance in the last episode proves to me that Boran is held together by convenience rather than a true alliance, and KimJ must know that she really can't fully trust the men of Boran to pull her along to the end. She has potential to prove strategic worthiness by crossing alliance lines to take out the power of Boran, once the Samburus are down to two. If she waits too much beyond that, I don't think the men of Boran will keep her until the end. Ethan: Once appeared to be strongly aligned to Lex, but now? Lex has broken his trust. Will this drive him closer to KimJ? He is competitive but doesn't appear to be strategic. So far he has been more of a pawn than a strategist. I want to know...who made the decision to go against Lex and vote for Brandon? Ethan appeared to have his doubts, but it was Tom who pulled together the votes from Frank (and Teresa by association, and KimP by further association), giving them the power to go ahead and go against Lex. He seems the most likely to go back to Lex, but a seed of doubt has now been planted. The fact that he is the biggest Immunity threat doesn't help his position, as he'll be a likely target after the next couple of TCs. What is his game plan? Ultimately I think the only people who have proven any potential strategic worthiness as of now are Tom and Teresa. Ethan and KimJ are enigmas (which could be a big clue that MB is saving them for the end to prove their worthiness). Frank doesn't seem to have a strategic mind...more of an honor code...he could get lucky and pull it together, but I don't think I'll be satisfied with him as the winner. KimP lost her chance, and Lex has proven how paranoia can destroy any sound strategy. I still don't know who to root for.   Top

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