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"Logical voting pattern"
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

11-26-01, 05:52 PM (EST)
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"Logical voting pattern"
The thing that bothered me the most about last week's episode was that for the first time this year, Boran made a stupid mistake in who they voted out. Things are much to close for them to purposely guve the Old S tribe a chance to win someone over and retake control of the game.

That said, it seems to me that if the people behave as expected the next 4 people to get voted ou will be the Old S tribe members. probably first goes Frank, then Brandon, the Kim (although Kim might go before Brandon) and then Teresa. Then the Old Boran guys get rid of the girls who are to likable to risk taking with them any further. First would go Kelly and then MamaKim. And then finally, the LET alliance will fight for the last immunity challenge and the winner gets to go to the finals against the person of his choosing.

Alhtough Immunity challenges and unforseen circumstances can change all of this is a second, doesn't this seem like the logical way for the game to be played out fromthis point?

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Logical voting pattern MC_Hampster 11-26-01 1
 RE: Logical voting pattern zzz 11-26-01 2
   RE: Logical voting pattern esquire 11-26-01 3
       RE: Logical voting pattern zzz 11-26-01 4
 RE: Logical voting pattern Serendipity 11-26-01 5
 RE: Logical voting pattern drich61 11-26-01 6
   RE: Logical voting pattern I_AM_HE 11-26-01 7
   RE: Logical voting pattern Rose Red 11-26-01 8
       twists mavsfan 11-26-01 9
           RE: twists zzz 11-26-01 10
               RE: twists Rose Red 11-27-01 12
           RE: twists smiley 11-27-01 13
       RE: Logical voting pattern herewiss13 11-26-01 11
           RE: Logical voting pattern zzz 11-27-01 14
               Upcoming Beauty Shoppe Revolt? Rose Red 11-27-01 15
               RE: Logical voting pattern lionsroar 11-27-01 16
                   RE: Logical voting pattern Rose Red 11-27-01 17
                   Where does Ethan's loyalty run? mavsfan 11-27-01 18
                       RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? Loree 11-28-01 19
                       RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? red 11-28-01 20
                           RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? zzz 11-28-01 21
                               RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? red 11-28-01 22
                                   RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? Loree 11-28-01 23
                                       RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? zzz 11-29-01 24
                                           RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? MDSkinner 11-29-01 26
                               RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run? gofrank151 11-29-01 27
 Merge Not Delayed dabo 11-29-01 25

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MC_Hampster 105 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 06:03 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
>Alhtough Immunity challenges and unforseen circumstances can change all of this is a second, doesn't this
>seem like the logical way for the game to be played out from this point?

Absolutely. I think the next 4 boots will be Samburu. It may be possible that one Samuru will make it further (ala Liz/Rodger), but I don't think so. I think the Boran are pretty tight.

The hint that someone in Boran may turn on their former tribe is an absolutely sure sign as any that it will not happen. When a preview talks about a "possibility" it means it won't happen. When something excitined does happen, it's not discussed as a possibility.

If someone was really betraying someone on the next episode, you can bet they would have made a big deal about it.

-MC

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 06:08 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
esquire--

I am not sure I agree that voting out Clarence was a bad move. If, for example, Kelly went over to the old Samburu, she probably could have brought Clarence along. He was both an immunity and flight risk.

I disagree a little with your logical progression. I think after Teresa's performance in E7, she is perceived as too much of a threat to leave to the last old Samburu to go. She has to go either next TC or the one after that if they decide to take out Frank first. She is way too determined and has too much endurance to allow her the chance to win immunity at the wrong time. I would leave Brandon to the end because he seems least likely to win immunity or cause last minute sympathy issues.

As far as the progression of the final 5 vote. That is something we have very little evidence about. We have seen the LET alliance, but I have a feeling there is a hidden alliance that may include KimJ, Kelly and Ethan that we have not seen and will not see until they join together to vote out Lex. Ethan may be stupid to go with the girls over the less popular guys, but I am not sure that he doesn't go this way in the end. If the final five are the old Boran tribe, it will be a fascinating episode to see who really belongs to the true suballiances.

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 06:15 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
>esquire--
>
>I am not sure I agree
>that voting out Clarence was
>a bad move. If,
>for example, Kelly went over
>to the old Samburu, she
>probably could have brought Clarence
>along. He was both
>an immunity and flight risk.
>
>

He might have been a flight risk, but there was a good chance that he would have voted with Old B. There is no chance that any of the Old S will vote with them. If they had voited off any of the Old S tribe members, then Ols S would need to convert 2 Old Borans. That is less likely than having to convert 1 Old Boran.

I also would make a bit less of the immunity risk. Immediately, Clarence may be the strongest person to place this game ever. However, the Individual Immunity challenges in the past do not always work to physical stregnths. There are games and quiaes and other agility like challenges as well.

>I disagree a little with your
>logical progression. I think
>after Teresa's performance in E7,
>she is perceived as too
>much of a threat to
>leave to the last old
>Samburu to go. She
>has to go either next
>TC or the one after
>that if they decide to
>take out Frank first.
>She is way too determined
>and has too much endurance
>to allow her the chance
>to win immunity at the
>wrong time. I would
>leave Brandon to the end
>because he seems least likely
>to win immunity or cause
>last minute sympathy issues.
>
>As far as the progression of
>the final 5 vote.
>That is something we have
>very little evidence about.
>We have seen the LET
>alliance, but I have a
>feeling there is a hidden
>alliance that may include KimJ,
>Kelly and Ethan that we
>have not seen and will
>not see until they join
>together to vote out Lex.
> Ethan may be stupid
>to go with the girls
>over the less popular guys,
>but I am not sure
>that he doesn't go this
>way in the end.
>If the final five are
>the old Boran tribe, it
>will be a fascinating episode
>to see who really belongs
>to the true suballiances.

While all this may be true, the only evidence that we have really seen is a LET alliance. Assuming this is true, they should be able to play the game to mke sure that they are the final three. That is the point I was tring to make


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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 06:29 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
I agree that IF we assume the LET alliance is real they seem to have pretty smooth sailing to the final three. Here is the problem. The only way to keep Kelly and KimJ in line is for someone in LET to make them think they have a chance at the finals. Otherwise, the temptation to switch sides would be too great. For example, if Colby had been honest with Jerri that he would not take her and Amber to the final three, she would have switched sides and probably brought Amber with her.

This means that someone must be lying to someone in old Boran. We just haven't seen all the suballiance discussions because MB knows that would give too much away. I have to assume that, like Colby, someone in old Boran has made a promise to someone he or she cannot and will not keep. I am just not sure that the promise that is broken won't be the promise to Lex and Tom as opposed to the promise to KimJ and Kelly.

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Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 06:48 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
In my mind, Clarence was the right vote. While some of the challenges might not be physical, they don't know that as yet. He could possibly avoid elimination for several episodes, and then be harder to get rid of.

Another danger with keeping Clarence is that he knew - and Teresa knew - that he was in danger. I think Teresa could have easily convinced him to cross over to their side with the promise to keep him.

Now old Boran must vote off old Samburu to remain safe for a while longer. Teresa has to be first. She has proven that she has the endurance to win immunity, that she was smart enough to outwit Clarence, and that she is extremely well liked. Ignoring Tom (because he just wants to get laid), Frank saluted her, Lex walked back to camp with his arm around her shoulder, MamaKim and Kelly both like her, and I believe Ethan does also. We already knew that young Samburu wanted her to join with them.

MamaKim and Kelly have already expressed surprise at how much Teresa told them about events in the Samburu camp so they know she had no loyalty there. Now they have to see her attempts to regroup the old Samburu so they should be aware that she has no loyalty to old Boran either.

I love her and admire her spunk, but Teresa is not to be trusted. She's playing the game right, and if you're the one in power, she has to be the first one to go.


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drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 07:30 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
>That said, it seems to me
>that if the people behave
>as expected the next 4
>people to get voted ou
>will be the Old S
>tribe members. probably first
>goes Frank, then Brandon, the
>Kim (although Kim might go
>before Brandon) and then Teresa.
> Then the Old Boran
>guys get rid of the
>girls who are to likable
>to risk taking with them
>any further. First would
>go Kelly and then MamaKim.
> And then finally, the
>LET alliance will fight for
>the last immunity challenge and
>the winner gets to go
>to the finals against the
>person of his choosing.


This is the formula for the death of the series, MB knows this. They have been hinting that we may get a Boran defector for two weeks now, started the week Lindsey was voted out. MB is playing in very dangerous waters if he keeps hinting at something that never happens only to boost ratings for a week or two. IMO a switch must happen, maybe not next time because it is highlighted for next time. But it has to eventually happen, if the viewers feel lied to, only to bring up ratings. Then Survivor 4 will be the last Survivor, Survivor 3 ratings will look awesome compared to the next ones.

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 08:14 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
LAST EDITED ON 11-26-01 AT 08:15 PM (EST)

the possible defection hinted at prior to the Lindsey boot ep was Lindsey turning on Brandon

we haven't really had any promise of a Boran defection until now. if it does happen, Kelly is the obvious choice

gah, stoopid typ-0s

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"

11-26-01, 08:47 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
CBS has already greenlighted a fifth Survivor series. However I agree with the pagonging aspect. It is the major flaw in the construction of this show. The strong tribe votes off the week tribe. MB tried to correct this with the Switch. But it looks like the Old Boron is back together again and taking their show on the road, like the Jackson Five. However, there may be ANOTHER "surprise" or twist coming. I don't know what. EPMB said there woud be "a few surprises". Well,one) was the Twist, 2)the delay of the merge, and what will three be?
The only thing I can think of that will shake things up further is someone geting sick(perhaps Teresa) and she has to leave the show, and Clarence is called back for the jury, as I posted elswewhere.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 09:59 PM (EST)
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9. "twists"
1st) I don't believe the merge was delayed. They merged in SI/SII with 10 players, and they merged in SIII with 10 players. WE SPECULATED the merge might be delayed, and I think it would have been better for the game it it had been delayed (throw a little scare into the players and make the start making alternative alliance plans). However, the merge was not delayed.

2nd) Theresa was certainly showing a side of herself that we haven't seen before during the immunity challenge. I really thought she was doing a great job of running a con game on Clarence, trying to get him to give up on the challenge. Even now I'm not COMPLETELY sure she didn't snooker him with the rock scissors paper game. When Clarence went with rock it sure looked to me like Theresa gave an ambiguous 3 finger scissor/paper that she initially showed Clarence edge on so he couldn't really see how many fingers she had out. Once she saw he had rock, I think she told him it was paper, and adjusted her finger count accordingly. I think Theresa is WAY smarter than I was giving her credit for, and Lex needs to get rid of her NOW, not Frank.

3rd) Switching alliances. I don't think I've really seen much alliance talk at all from the Boran. I agree the way to keep your tribe from jumping ship and joining the other side is to make them think THEY are part of a 3 person alliance, and that the other 2 members are being duped. I believe Lex & Tom think they have an alliance with Ethan, and that they believe the girls are being duped. I also believe MammaKim & Kelly think they have an alliance with Ethan and that it's the boys being duped. As long as Ethan can keep both sides believeing THEY are the true alliance he cruises to the final 3. MB may edit this to make it look like Ethan is firmly in one camp over the next few weeks and then have him switch to the other 2. The "other 2" will probably have been his real alliance overall, but the general public may think "Oh Wow! That was so unexpected! You never know when someone could switch sides!".

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 10:09 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: twists"
mavsfan--

Your analysis of probably Boran suballiances is right in line with mine. The fact that MB has shown us LET leads me to believe that in the end Ethan chooses K&K over L&T. But we are really getting ahead of ourselves. Assuming this is the outcome, I believe we will see some clues in episodes to come. I also agree that Teresa might be the best next boot strategically, but Frank is an attractive target as well--one of these two should go in E8.

One technical point--the merge WAS delayed. Normally it comes the day after the E6 TC before any reward challenge, but in S3 it came on the day of E7 IC and was announced at the IC itself and was a surprise (somewhat) to the players. This was a delay by a day or two (although I agree it was not a delay in the number of players left at the time of the merge). I think, however, that this change was a much bigger deal to the players than the audience. Most casual viewers, even those that saw S1 and S2, probably did not really notice this change or catch its significance to the game.

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-01, 03:11 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: twists"
>One technical point--the merge WAS delayed.
> Normally it comes the
>day after the E6 TC
>before any reward challenge, but
>in S3 it came on
>the day of E7 IC
>and was announced at the
>IC itself and was a
>surprise (somewhat) to the players.
> This was a delay
>by a day or two
>(although I agree it was
>not a delay in the
>number of players left at
>the time of the merge).
> I think, however, that
>this change was a much
>bigger deal to the players
>than the audience. Most
>casual viewers, even those that
>saw S1 and S2, probably
>did not really notice this
>change or catch its significance
>to the game.

Thank you zzz. The Merge WAS delayed. And it stressed ALL the players out, especially the Boronabooboo and the remaining two Playskoolers. I think MB has a REAL supsence problem on his hands this time out with Survivor Africa, and he's using every device available to keep everyone confused and guessing. Especially US.

The Merge/No Merge/Three Tribe Split red herrings PLUS Carl's "I slept with Teresa" remarks were all meant to cover up that he had yet ANOTHER obvious bootee on his hands this past week, Clarence.

The week before that Lindsey was so obvious, he chose to spin it out to us that is WAS Lindsey, not hiding anything. "A cigar is sometimes just a cigar" as someone said on this board. Who was that person? I give them major props, BTW.

Meanwhile, in the NEXT episode he had ANOTHER lame-o, no-brainer on his hands with Clarence going. So he used every trick in his arensal to focus our attention elsewhere, like the great video prestedigitator that he is. Like on the time of the merge, instead of who would go.

And everybody in the entire spoiling world thought it was TERESA, who instead turns out to Wonder Woman! And what a wonderful surprise that was all round!

Of course, you could say "How did he know Clarence was going when he delayed the merge?"

Well, I actually think he was trying to protect Clarence by doing this. An African-American being kicked out of Africa by an all white tribe seems SO racist. And maybe it is. I think he wanted to make the Boranabooboo re-think their boot strategy. Remember how shaken and paranoid Ethan looked when Jeff came up with that merge comment at the end of the "Lindsey Goes Ba-Bye" Episode?

I think Ethan had totally plotted this Clarence exit, and then, he WAS so happy and smiling when it happened.

Also, I think MB deliberately chose an IC that Clarence COULD have won. Endurance? Hell, yes. But CB CHOSE to exit. He blew it, like Alicia getting down off that damned pole did last year. Nothing MB could do about that.

I'm sure Teresa was a VERY smart and able player all along. He just chose not to SHOW us that until this week and what a shock and surprise it was! I'm glad he did that, actually. In a strange way, that's great "writing" in the sense that MB, through his editing of these people, is "creating characters" and "character development". Like the super quiet Kim Pee. What a shock that's gonna be when she's finally revealed to be - well, who knows what she is at this point?

Did we EVER see Tina focused on last year? She was NEVER the center of an entire episode's worth of speculation, like say, Frank was, by suddenly being "an outsider" last week.

So who hasn't had a lot of "development"? Kim Pee and Ethan. That may REALLY mean something later on.

Also, why was Frank so suddenly outside? He didn't seem unhappy being a Boranabooboo until the Samboborans arrived at the merge.

I think the continued presence of Brandon and Kim Pee and also their seeming acceptance by the Mocho-Munchies Merged Tribe made him put himself outside their "pail" as it were.

While, yes, I totally see that their are hidden alliances that have to stay hidden in order to surprise us at the end, I don't see spineless, spiteful, cowardly Kelly really going up against The Big Guys. Unless she has someone smart like Teresa - or BRANDON - to tell her what she should do. On her own, she'll do nothing.
Yes, I totally agree that a Sambooboo is going this week. Watch MB set up an immunity challenge that Frank SHOULD be able to win, and if he doesn't, he's brunch, I mean, toast.

And watch out for Brandon. If anyone could rally the women of Mocho-Munchie to usurp the men, it would be him. He's starting to remind me of Truman Capote and his bevy of swans. He's soooo much smarter and certainly WAY more devious than any of these people. I just don't think he ever watched the show before he got on it.

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smiley 2009 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-01, 09:03 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: twists"
And I thought I was the only one that noticed this!!!!!!!!!!! Sneaky little devil *L*
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herewiss13 8 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-01, 10:20 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
But the merge wasn't delayed, was it? 5 and 5 (well...6 & 4). They were just kept on their toes about it and the actual "merge" was abrupt and unconventional...but not unexpected or prolonged.

In order to avoid a Pagong style endgame, you've got to set things up so that an individual on one team _cannot_ make it with only their other teammates. Maybe if the tribes were to exchange players frequently, that would destroy any long-term bonds/alliances until the merge, or at least make them more difficult. Of course, you'd want to establish such a departure from tradition at the beginning and not make it a "Twist." The swap ought to be random too...names drawn from a hat or something.

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-01, 09:18 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
>But the merge wasn't delayed, was
>it? 5 and 5
>(well...6 & 4). They
>were just kept on their
>toes about it and the
>actual "merge" was abrupt and
>unconventional...but not unexpected or prolonged.
>

Well--I thought I was clear above, but I guess not--let me try it one more time. The merge WAS delayed. It was not delayed in the sense that it was delayed after an extra TC. But it was delayed in the sense that it happened on a different day and at a different point in the game than normal. In S1 and S2, the merge happened, I think, on Day 19. It also happened before any RC or IC, and the tribe went to the first individual IC after the merge and after moving, picking a name and getting to know each other as a tribe a little. This time the merge happened on Day 20 or 21 (not sure exactly--but that is not the point--someone who keeps track of these things better can tell us), a later day. I think it also happened after a separate tribal RC that we did not see (but I think we will see this RC in the recap episode based on the blindfold vidcaps). More important, the merge happened after they arrived at IC--in fact they did not know whether they were going to individual or tribal IC.

So, as far as the audience is concerned, maybe the merge could be seen as not having been delayed. It still came in E7 and with the same number of players. But for the players, the merge definitely was delayed and it affected strategy. I think that MB might have been trying to protect Clarence by the delay (as Rose suggests) but it clearly backfired (just as in my opinion the twist backfired by ensuring that old Samburu would go into the merge with only 4--it may have protected Frank in the short term, but it probably doomed all of Samburu in the long term) because it did not allow for enough strategy discussions. If the merge had occured at its normal time, Teresa might have been able to see that she needed Clarence. Someone already suggested in another thread that the smart play would have been to get Clarence immunity and then use him to get rid of Tom in a 5-5 deadlock vote (old Samburu + Clarence against old Boran). But the delayed merge made this type of strategy impossible.

So I guess whether or not you believe there was a delayed merge depends on your definition of "delayed" (kind of like depending on what he meaning of "is" is).

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-01, 10:28 AM (EST)
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15. "Upcoming Beauty Shoppe Revolt?"
as far as the audience
>is concerned, maybe the merge
>could be seen as not
>having been delayed. It
>still came in E7 and
>with the same number of
>players. But for the
>players, the merge definitely was
>delayed and it affected strategy.
> I think that MB
>might have been trying to
>protect Clarence by the delay
>(as Rose suggests) but it
>clearly backfired (just as in
>my opinion the twist backfired
>by ensuring that old Samburu
>would go into the merge
>with only 4--it may have
>protected Frank in the short
> term, but it probably
>doomed all of Samburu in
>the long term) because it
>did not allow for enough
>strategy discussions. If the
>merge had occured at its
>normal time, Teresa might have
>been able to see that
>she needed Clarence. Someone
>already suggested in another thread
>that the smart play would
>have been to get Clarence
>immunity and then use him
>to get rid of Tom
>in a 5-5 deadlock vote
>(old Samburu + Clarence against
>old Boran). But the
>delayed merge made this type
>of strategy impossible.
>
zzz,
Are you sure you're not Agatha Christie come back to life? Another excellent, cogent analysis. And yes, MB's "protecting" of Clarence did backfire and actually doomed ALL the remaining Sambooboos, you're right. Cuz it sure looks like MBs beloved(god only knows why) Frank is going for a long walk down a short pier this week. Unless he gets immunity.
Yes, it looks like it's too late for the Sammies UNLESS well, there's a Beauty Shoppe Revolt. The women against the men with the women egged on by Brandon.
I point to Ethan's Insider monologue, as being very revealing in terms of his feeling for Kim Johnson. I think you may be right about the hidden important alliance being him and Mamakim and Kelly. I didn't think there was going to be a Showdown at the OK Corral African Hair Salon but now it looks like there might be.
Teresa's the brains behind this, and if she goes this week, I hope she has imparted enough of her plan to BRANDON so that if she's gone, HE maybe able to implement her strategy. And judging by the promos, she's doing just that.
And according to Ethan - HE LIKES BRANDON AND KIM PEE!!! That blew me away.
So he's now aligned with Lex/Tom, Mamakim/Kelly, AND Brandon/ Kim Pee. I think THAT's why Frank isolated himself so much last episode. He saw the handwriting on the wall, and it didn't say "Let's do brunch."
Also, Clarence's remark that something to the effect that "riches are coming Brandon's way due to his weaknesses" struck me. What success is coming to Brandon? What riches? What rewards?
Has AC/DC Ethan got his eye on Brandon for the Final Two? Are they the new Power Couple? Is this what Jeffy meant when he said that "Brandon's sexuality becomes an issue?"
Brandon would have to last more than three more episodes for this to come into play.
Next week, it's a Sammie goin' South, but the week after THAT after the Sammies have PILED more votes on Lex (or TOM) and there's a tiebreaker possiblity and a swing vote (from Kelly?) the L/E/T may be brunch,er, I mean, toast.

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lionsroar 157 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-01, 10:37 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
You know what bothers me about the LET supposed alliance? Did any of you notice Ethans face or body language when Tom asked him who they were going to give the axe to? Something was definitely there. IMHO Ethan does not have an alliance with Tom. Tom is being taken along for the ride. I think the true alliance is Ethan and MamaKim..with Lex, Kelly, and Tom being taken along for the ride. If anyone has that episode on tape...go check out Ethans body language when Tom brings up the "axe"
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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-01, 10:44 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Logical voting pattern"
I think that's exactly right, lionsroar. You guys have made me see that the L/E/T freight train is on its way to being derailed and some time soon.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

11-27-01, 10:50 PM (EST)
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18. "Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"
LAST EDITED ON 11-27-01 AT 11:13 PM (EST)

I definitly think Ethan is the power broker with the chance to choose between Lex-Tom and Kelly-MammaKim.

So who is he loyal to and who's being taken for a ride?

At this point I think a good argument can be made both ways.

In favor of the Lex-Tom-Ethan alliance:

Ethan seemed really glad to have "his boys back". Ethans enthusiasm with having these 2 guys back in the tribe seemed to me to be genuine. We have seen what appears to be ample evidence of bonding between these guys (collect wood together, digging out the waterhole). We also know MammaKim (talking with Jessie or Kelly) was concerned that an all guys alliance was forming.

In favor of the MammaKim-Kelly-Ethan alliance:

Kelly and Clarence thought Ethan was just kind of drifting and that he would go with which ever alliance had the momentum. Ethan would appear to be the 3rd man in the 3 man Lex-Tom-Ethan allinace, so Ethan might be open to joinging a new 3 person alliance with Kelly-MammaKim if he thought he was the second man ie. the REAL alliance was him and MammaKim (like Colby-Tina). MammaKim is a retired school teacher, if anyone can tell when they are being lied to I would think it would be a school teacher (she sould know if Ethan is stringing her along). When Ethan was approached about joinging the Lex-Tom alliance, and then again when Tom was asking Ethan who should get the ax, Ethan had the same dumb goofy look as when Silas was trying to recruite Ethan for an alliance.

I'm sure there are more arguements pro and con, but this is what I came up with on the spur of the moment.

I think if we can crack the question who Ethan is aligned with everything else will fall into place. (Nothing like stating the obvious).

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

11-28-01, 05:04 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"
Ethan could very well be torn between alliances at this time. He likes the guys. But Ethan is very competitive and he probably thinks he has a much better chance of beating MamaKim and Kelly in challenges. Where Lex and Tom could give him a challenge if strength is involved. Also those votes are mounting up on Lex and Tom. That could make Ethan nervous about alligning with them. I think one or both of Tom/Lex could get the boot and we will see Ethan fleeing to MamaKim and Kelly leaving the other Tom/Lex blowing in the wind.
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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"

11-28-01, 06:39 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"

>
>I think if we can crack
>the question who Ethan is
>aligned with everything else will
>fall into place.

I know this has been hinted at here and there throughout the board, but isn't it possible that Ethan actually has an alliance with every damn player in the game?

Maybe it isn't who Ethan decides to go with - maybe he'll just ride the game out and end up with whoever he ends up with. We've been shown his alliance with Tom and Lex. We've gotten hints of his alliance with Kelly and KimJ. I'd not be surprised to discover he's formed something with Frank. And there seem to be implications he's been flirting with Kimp. He's a player. But if he's the crux that everyone is depending on - well, that seems like a pretty good Survivor strategy to me. I'm just throwing it out there, because everywhere you turn some new poster has some new proof that Ethan's alliance is actually with - KELLY, no, FRANK, no, BRANDON. It seems possible that its everyone.


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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

11-28-01, 06:47 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"
red--

I think what people mean by this is that it seem quite possible that at the final five stage it will be the old Boran. At that point, it may be that Tom and Lex are voting for either Kelly or KimJ and Kelly and KimJ are voting for either Tom or Lex. If that is the case, Ethan is the tie-breaking vote and whoever he votes for is voted off. It would be completely up to him to decide. Thus, the question of "true loyalties" I think means will he side with the "boys" or the "girls" in this situation where he has the choice to go either way. If we knew the answer to that questions, we could make a better choice of how we think the game will play out. Of course, the final five may not be the five old Boran (or the other 4 may gang up on Ethan), so the question may be made moot.

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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11-28-01, 07:00 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"
LAST EDITED ON 11-28-01 AT 07:26 PM (EST)

No, no I understand that. What I'm saying is maybe Ethan isn't playing the game where on day one he allied with two people and that's it until the end. Maybe he pretty much allied with everyone in his tribe, and is waiting to see how everything plays out.

If Tom & Lex have an alliance with Ethan and Kelly and KimJ have an alliance with Ethan - which one will he betray is the question. But if he's lucky he won't have to answer that question - the question will answer itself (bear in mind immunity throws things for a loop.) Also, if he can convince most everyone he's on their side - then nobody's going to want to vote him off.

I don't know the answer to these questions. But I think its possible that on day 23 (or wherever we are) Ethan was willing and able to go whichever way the wind turned.

Just a theory...

Edited to say never mind. I'm not paying attention to what I'm writing and didn't respond to what you said. I'm just talking at cross purposes - purely about strategy and not about outcome.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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11-28-01, 11:31 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"
Earlier in the show when the Boran tribe was still together before the switch MamaKim said that Ethan didn't seem to be in an alliance. And Ethan himself said that he didn't know who to trust and if he wanted to be in an alliance with everyone who asked him. Clarence and Kelly talked and said Ethan would follow whoever he had to. They were talking about wanting Lex out and saying that Ethan would switch and vote with them if it was in his best interest. So Ethan has always been portrayed as kind of a lone soul in the game. He doesn't seem to be in any solid alliance. He was definitely waiting and weighing his options at the beginning. The question is whether he has now slid into an alliance or if he is still waiting to see and pretending to play along with everyone.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

11-29-01, 08:54 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"
Below is a reprint of Sleeeve's report about Clarence and Kelly's talk. I read it very differently than you did. First, I think much of what Kelly said to Clarence was a lie--this is supported by her later confessional where she said that Clarence "thinks" he has an alliance with her, implying she lied to him about being allied with him but really knew he would be gone before the end.

More to the point, I do not agree that she indicated that Ethan was not in an alliance. I think she assumed that Ethan would vote with Lex and Tom. I think she was just indicating that if they could get KimJ to vote for Lex and if KimJ beat Lex in the tie break (assuming Lex, Ethan and Tom voted KimJ rather than Clarence) then Ethan would be likely to switch allegences away from Tom because he is flexible and will go "wherever the ship is headed." It could have been that Kelly already had a secret alliance with Ethan she did not want to reveal to Clarence. I do NOT read this to mean that Ethan was not in an alliance. Furthermore, it is possible Kelly and Clarence did not know how tight Ethan was with Lex and Tom.

We cannot know the answers to these questions. The editing is hiding a lot of this information. I think the only thing that can be taken from the conversation is that Ethan is viewed as flexible.

Reprint:
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Clarence and Kelly's Walk of Shame
Clarence and Kelly hiking together.
It's "hot as hell"
The more he thinks about it, the more Clarence wants to vote out Lex.
Kelly doesn't like his bossiness either.
The challenge wasn't physical, yet Mama Kim still screwed up... so she has to go.
If they get rid of Kim, both Clarence and Kelly will be in a very precarious position.
They are allied until the merge, no matter what.
They have to figure out how to get rid of Kim w/o putting themselves into too precarious of a position.
They don't even care about the RC's any more... the merger and IC's are all that matters.
They should vote off Lex, cause Ethan will go along with wherever the ship is headed.
Kelly: Let's not talk about losing tomorrow... otherwise we're all fucked
Kelly: If Tommy, Lex, and Ethan voted for you, then it wouldn't matter who Kim and I voted for.
Clarence: Tommy ain't gonna vote for me, cause he's weak, and he's more worried about being voted off himself... he's struggling.
They were looking for berries, but can't find anything.
Kelly: What if we found a soda machine.
Clarence: I'd run like hell... some sort of African voodoo.
Kelly: I think they outlawed shade in Africa a few years back... look... there's a doiley of shade... it's perforated.
Clarence: let's go back to the other cherry patch, and we'll eat and bring nothing back.
Clarence: Know what I like about these walks??? We can act our age, instead of being 4 and 5.
Clarence: Uncle Lex, may I have some water, please... (deep voice): yes, you may, son.
Clarence: Look Dad, I took two poles and tied them up with a rope... don't they look good?
Clarence (imitating Lex): Yes, son, but it would look a lot better if you do it like this.
Kelly (imitating Lex): Have you thought about holding the pole this way.
Clarence (imitating Lex): Hey guys, guys, guys, guys... time out... I know the best Sushi place in the whole world, and it's not here... you know what, they beat us, and that made me mad!

-----------------------------------------------------------------

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

11-29-01, 09:48 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"
<<We cannot know the answers to these questions. The editing is hiding a lot of this information. I think the only thing that can be taken from the conversation is that Ethan is viewed as flexible.>>

zzz-

I love your wording here, and I agree with you completely. Virtually nothing is being given away to us this season thanks to the editing. And as you point out, Ethan is viewed as flexible, and if you think about it, even that is not a true definite. We don't actually know whether or not he is actually flexible, as he is viewed, just that this is the way he is portrayed to both the audience and to the other Survivors. The funny thing is that this could be the key to the game, if no one jumps over to the original Samburu side, it may be doing MB some good to make Ethan appear to be flexible whether he is or is not. At the very least it makes us wonder what will happen at the end, and not be able to accurately predict what is going to happen, due to Ethans apparent lack of any true ties. I would not be at all surprised that Ethan is not flexible at all, just that MB wants us to think that he is.

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gofrank151 32 desperate attention whore postings
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11-29-01, 12:04 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Where does Ethan's loyalty run?"

I very much believe Ethan is playing both sides of the tom/lex and mammakim/kelly suballiances within the old boran.

The question for him is who would he want to be in front of the jury with? Clearly the guys are less likeable than the two women. I would think he would go with the guys..i mean wouldn't you love to be in front of the jury with Lex, especially Lex.

Against the guys, he may lose the two boran girls votes, but would have teresa and franks for sure probably. and probably the both young samburus too, especially if lex continues to make an arse of himself.

This all assumes the 4 orig samboorooos get picked off next.

Given this eventual scenario, I believe it would be wise for kelly or mamakim to jump ship now and pull together the original 4 remaining samburus. Given the 2/2 split (and the fact the young and old dont like each other) the 5th person in that coalition becomes the broker and could play both sides down to the final 3 easily. I dont believe this will happen - both will be tied to their original loyalties...but if they were smart, they would do it this week. I will have my fingers crossed one of the two wise up, see the writing on the wall, and make it an exciting episode.

Frankie

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

11-29-01, 09:46 AM (EST)
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25. "Merge Not Delayed"
MB eliminated the day 19 treemail which in S1 sent the ambassadors to the other camps and then to a romantic evening of ambassadorring, which in S2 put all the boys in one camp and all the girls in the other for get-to-know-yous. The merge happened on day 20 just like in S1 and S2, but then IC was pushed up to right then and there instead of held on day 21, so the remaining get-to-know-yous happened after IC. This is an interesting thresd but it was time to bring it back over left, some of the posts are getting too thin.

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

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