Just one last post before I resume my cramming... this'll be shorter I promise.

First off, I think that the merge is going to happen one more episode and I think that CLARENCE is going to get the boot next week. Why? Because then I can really PLAY with the group dynamics after the merge the week after! The finger really points to him... he's had SOOOO much screen time, NO ONE is allied with him. I think the first comment on "next on survivor" is him making a pact with mamakim (that's who he's closest to on his tribe) and mamakim is going to stab him in the back. He's a threat for immunity once the merge happens AND he has no solid alliance. I'm sorry but you just can't win with those kinds of statistics. Plus ethan really want's him gone (kelly said in her SI interview that ethan and clarence REALLY didn't get along) and I'm sure it wouldn't be to hard for him to convince everyone else to do that. If he's not out this time, he will DEFINITELY be the first out after the merge. I'm still convinced he's gone next week though.

Anywho, so if clarence is gone, that leaves two different possibilities... you have the BORAN 5- kim, kelly, lex, ethan and tom. Then you have the possibility of three subgroups... mamakim, frank, theresa... lex, ethan, tom..... and kelly, kimp, brandon. So the basically the original BORAN group is in POWER and they will decide who will go for the tribal council... now the problem for them is deciding who will go. Here's where is get's interesting!!! Obviously, mamakim and ethan are going to want either kimp or brandon to go... and kelly, lex and tom are going to want theresa or frank to go! And whichever way the vote goes... the power is going to switch to either the new Boran or the new samburu.

Out of kimp and brandon, I think they (well, kelly would) would probably think kimp is a threat and definitely they would think frank is a threat compared to theresa. There is always the possibility that frank, theresa, kimp and brandon reforming old samburu... I don't think they would do it... but I do think that old BORAN is VERY wary that they might which is why it's inevitable that someone from old samburu is out. That was it's 5 old boran vs 3 old samburu. THEN the fun starts. Say frank is out... then kelly definitely has more sway. She may be able to convince mamakim and theresa to go with the her, brandon and kim. Why? Because LET are ALL IC threats!!! And mamakim AND kelly KNOW that if it came down to just the boran 5, they would most likely LOSE. That and the fact that mamakim and ethan are now closer than before... so I guess for mamakim she would have to decide which was a better final 5 for her (old boran or kelly and the genxers)... UNLESS... they boot out another old samburu... let's say kimp...

NOW there would be LET and then kim, kelly, brandon, and theresa... This would have kkbt in the drivers seat... both kim and kelly feel better because they both have equal power over each other and they have power over LET as well. Then they could get rid of someone from LET.

After this scenario, I think there are just soooo many different scenarios that could happen, it's useless trying to make an educated guess. Someone could go on and IC run... or something really weird and unexpected could happen in the game (re: mike's accident in S2). Even my deducting to this point could be totally off base.

Basically, the three plater swap was great because I don't think it's going to be the typical pagonging that happened in S1 and S2. This is because now more players in possible power positions have more to work with. It didn't work in S2 because the power was always with colby and tina and they made sure that no matter what, the power would always stay with them. NOW, the power is more likely to switch back and forth because the relationships between everyone is so much more complex. It's no longer US vs THEM. It's more... "how can I get myself furthest in the game?" and "who is the biggest threat to me in ICs?". OLD BORAN isn't going to be stupid and allow OLD SAMBURU and chance to reunite, but once old samburu is decimated to two, they are no longer a threat not even in the final four because most likely it'll be one genxer and one OFA. So I think the first couple of post merger boots may be predictable... but after that I think it'll be really difficult figuring out who's with whom and hopefully the control and power will switch from different alliances. I'm just going to post my thoughts on possible two way alliances in order from the most powerful combo to least...

1)Kim Kelly - the reason I place them as first is because they have SOOOO many different options to them... and if they play their cards right, it really could end up with them being in the final two or atleast one of them making final two.

2)Ethan Lex - I really think this is the alliance that burnett is trying to hide. They are both strong in ICs so one of them could go on an IC run... and they both have tom on their side. Plus is kim and kelly are dumb blondes, they'll use them to get to the final two (I don't think that'll happen)

3)kelly brandon (or kimp) - kelly is smart enough to make this happen. If she plays all her cards right and doesn't let LET on to something like this. For Kelly, this would be the smartest move as she knows LET would be strong IC threats.

4)kim theresa (or frank) - this would work for kim also cause she would then have a chance at IC with theresa still around with LET she has no shot. The one thing that would kill her is if she stayed loyal to ethan or lex. Cause they would never let her into the final 2 (she's waaaay too nice)

5) Kim Ethan - this one is a sleeper possibility. Ethan may go bonkers on lex and not trust him anymore. But Ethan wouldn't want mamakim with him in the final two and I don't think mamakim would want ethan with her in the final two either. But they have spent sooo much time together being on the same tribe the WHOLE time.

6) Lex Tom - They were both on the same tribe this whole time so lex may be thinking going with tom to the final two would be best. But I just don't see this working. Tom as gotten sooooo much screen time. And from kelly's comments I just think tom is on the perphery of LET. He may end up lasting longer just because he's much less of an IC threat than lex or ethan... but who knows.

7) Brandon kimp - this is NOT going to happen. I wish. I like both of them... but there is no way BORAN is going to let them stay together... plus they have absolutely no control or power whatsoever and I don't see how they could. But one of them may make it to final two.

8) theresa frank - same reasoning as #7. The reason why I put them last is that frank is an IC threat and I think he would be the first old samburu out.

So these pairings are POWER TWO pairings... meaning I'm think of Colby-Tina and how they pretty much dictated what happened in S2. I don't think that one power two is going to dictate what happens like last year because of the changed dynamic... but I'm almost positive that one of these two (barring IC miracles) combos will be controling the voting each TC after next week.

Just my thoughts, feel free to disect and disagree. I'm off to cram (finally). Can't wait to hear what people think of my analysis (I must have really needed to get that out!!! I gotta shorten up my posts)...

speedie