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"Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 02:55 AM (EST)
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"Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
Survivorfever.net has some vidcaps of one of next week's challenges:

http:www.survivorfever.net/ep6-nov-9.html

It shows an archery competition...

And guess what boys and girls... It's the IMMUNITY CHALLENGE:

Here's Jiffy standing beside the idol:

The CBS website preview reads:

... A tribe member, originally disliked by many,
turns out to be a pretty good teacher.

Frank's profile reads:

... An avid bow hunter and muskie fisherman...

Now, remember in Season 1 where the archery competition was preceded by a period of time where the competitors had a chance to practice with the bows for a day or so. Maybe they were afforded the same practice time for this competition and Frank teaches his tribe mates how to use the bow.

The use of the phrase 'pretty good teacher' is ambiguous. It's hard to say if it's a spoiler or not. Was Frank a good enough teacher to cause enough of his tribe members to learn sufficient bow skills to win immunity for his new tribe? I think it sounds positive enough to be taken as a spoiler indication (not quite proof, though).

I am currently analyzing the rest of Paratrooper's caps for other indications of who wins this challenge... More to follow.

September 11, 2001

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... Rose Red 11-10-01 1
 RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... I_AM_HE 11-10-01 2
   RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... Loree 11-13-01 57
 Manipulation AyaK 11-10-01 3
   RE: Manipulation Outfrontgirl 11-10-01 5
   RE: Manipulation AresMars 11-12-01 45
 RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... Outfrontgirl 11-10-01 4
 Archery Immunity Challenge Speculat... IceCat 11-10-01 6
   RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Spec... MDSkinner 11-10-01 7
   Great info! mavsfan 11-10-01 8
       RE: Great info! TechNoir 11-10-01 9
           Ten Little Indians Rose Red 11-10-01 10
               RE: Ten Little Indians katem 11-12-01 48
       RE: Great info! sonrod 11-10-01 20
   Purrfect, Ice! dangerkitty 11-10-01 11
   More Archery Speculation... Rain Crow 11-10-01 12
   One question dangerkitty 11-10-01 16
       RE: One question I_AM_HE 11-10-01 17
       In Season One... IceCat 11-10-01 18
           Ah dangerkitty 11-10-01 19
   RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Spec... TwinkyDik 11-10-01 21
       RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Spec... IceCat 11-11-01 24
   RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Spec... Outfrontgirl 11-10-01 22
       Limited Time and Limited Arrows... IceCat 11-11-01 25
 RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... Mumbo Jumbo 11-10-01 13
   RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... I_AM_HE 11-10-01 14
       RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... Rose Red 11-10-01 15
 Kelly Injured? I_AM_HE 11-10-01 23
   I Think That is Lindsey... IceCat 11-11-01 26
       RE: I Think That is Lindsey... I_AM_HE 11-11-01 27
       RE: I Think That is Lindsey... Outfrontgirl 11-11-01 28
           A Logical Way to Order... IceCat 11-11-01 31
               RE: A Logical Way to Order... Outfrontgirl 11-12-01 36
       RE: I Think That is Lindsey... Rose Red 11-11-01 29
           sorry, totally unrelated to the thr... I_AM_HE 11-11-01 30
   RE: Kelly Injured? George Tirebiter 11-12-01 39
 RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... Bungler 11-12-01 32
   RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... I_AM_HE 11-12-01 33
       RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery... trillian 11-12-01 34
   Lex and the others' form Outfrontgirl 11-12-01 37
       RE: Lex and the others' form Skinman 11-13-01 52
 More speculation of Boran victory..... Krautboy 11-12-01 35
   RE: More speculation of Boran victo... Outfrontgirl 11-12-01 38
       Adding to the Confusion. Rain Crow 11-12-01 40
 vidcap analysis Bungler 11-12-01 41
   RE: vidcap analysis Krautboy 11-12-01 43
       RE: vidcap analysis Rain Crow 11-12-01 44
 CBS Newletter Outfrontgirl 11-12-01 42
   RE: CBS Newletter Krautboy 11-12-01 46
       RE: CBS Newletter Outfrontgirl 11-12-01 47
   RE: CBS Newletter DedilyFlea 11-13-01 49
       Clarence the teacher of redemption? cowboyroo 11-13-01 50
   RE: CBS Newletter--misdirection? Swami 11-13-01 51
       RE: CBS Newletter--misdirection? Outfrontgirl 11-13-01 53
           RE: CBS Newletter--misdirection? Swami 11-13-01 54
               Archery skills Outfrontgirl 11-13-01 55
                   Lex lets loose... Rain Crow 11-13-01 56

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 03:13 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
Urgh....My computer just deleted the message I was revising to you, Ice Cat. EXCELLENT CYBER SLEUTHING, Dude. Or Dude-ette? Notice how MB seems to be protecting Frank and giving him a Survivor Make-Over that means he's in it for the long haul.
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 03:35 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
sounds like a good possibility!
the only other options for the "teacher" seem to be Clarence or Lindsey to me, and i don't know what either of them might teach their tribesmates that is of any real use...
and if this is the IC, and Boran wins thanks to Frank, we can put some safe money on a well deserved boot on Lindsey's backside
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-01, 09:54 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
I immediately thought of Clarence when I read the part about a member who was originally disliked. I thought Clarence would finally redeem himself by doing something helpful.

Frank and the bow-hunting could be it. But I don't think anyone who is now on Boran dislikes Frank. So I don't really see him redeeming himself to T, MamaKim, Ethan & Clarence.

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 04:09 AM (EST)
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3. "Manipulation"
First, IceCat, I totally agree that this teaser refers to Frank. As I noted in an earlier thread, the reformed Boran tribe is at a HUGE physical disadvantage after booting Silas. How appropriate that MB would throw in a challenge right now that just HAPPENS to play to a KNOWN STRENGTH OF A MEMBER OF BORAN.

Mark my words ... Samburu is going to TC. Markie will make sure of it. And then, if he wants, Markie can delay the merge by a week and still form a 7-member jury.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 04:18 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Manipulation"
AyaK, would you mind pointing me to that thread? There are so many I haven't read and they are loading very slowly...
I'd love to take a look at this discussion.
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AresMars 283 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-01, 04:55 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Manipulation"
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-01 AT 04:59 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-12-01 AT 04:56 PM (EST)

I would like to see that thread too Ayak because even though they have one person less then Sambozo I can't consider them to have a physical advantage.

All Sambozo has is Lex and maybe Lindsay. Tom nearly had a heart attack during the last few challenges and Brandon has zero potential to him.

Boran on the other hand has Clarence, Ethan, and Frank. Anyone that under estimates Frank's strength A) Doesn't know any linemen and B) never had their a$$ handed to him by a 45 year old vet. Yes, T and Kim are weak but so are Brandon,Tom, Kelly, and Li'l Kim.



God Bless America



There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.


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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 04:14 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
Very cool work, Ice!
Frank does fit the profile for the teacher character.
Of course it can mean people appreciate his people skills more as he takes on a teaching role and not reflect on the competition results.

My question:
Archery was the Ep 8 Individual RC in S1. Similarly, boomerang tossing was the Ep. 8 RC in S2. How do they make archery a team challenge? Does victory rest on the best shot for that team, or on some kind of cumulative score, or do people go head-to-head in elimination? Challenge development's not one of my strong points, but archery seems more suited to individual competition.
If we can spoil the criteria we'll have a better chance of spoiling the winners.
(man, how easy would it be to throw an archery IC? Just shrug and say I suck at this and miss the mark by a mile?)


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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 05:28 AM (EST)
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6. "Archery Immunity Challenge Speculation..."
I'm going to engage in a little speculation, here:

Take a look at Paratrooper's vidcap of the latest preview sequence:

Note how the targets are arranged in two angled lines of five.

I am going to assume that the tribes are shooting at the targets on their own side of the course and that they must be fired upon in order 1 to 5 - They could just as easily be firing 'cross-court' at the opposing line of targets. There is a very good reason for this. The tribes will be allowed to decide their own 'batting order' so that weakest shot will get to fire at the first target and strongest shot gets to fire at the furthest target. This will allow for early hits from the weaker shots for visual appeal and it will create greater suspense whan the best shooters come to the firing line.

In the vidcap shown it would appear that the final two shooters are up. Big Tom who, as a rural sort, probably has had some experience with a bow and Frank who is 'an avid bow hunter'. These are the two most likely candidates for the best shots/final shooters for each team. The fact that targets are already burning, lends credence to this assumption as well. Closer analysis of the frame reveals that two, possibly four targets are burning. Whether it's two or four doesn't matter because there is a definite burn and a possible burn for each line of targets. The teams are either tied 2-2 or 1-1.


Frank appears to waiting for his turn and Tom is in the process of completing his shot. Toms arm position is consistent with aiming for the last target. It is also consistent with aiming a little too low to make the distance IMO. I think Tom may have practiced at too short of a distance and is not 'lofting' his aiming point high enough. Frank, because of his prior experience, will make the necessary adjustment for distance and successfully make his shot, thus sending Samburu to TC and Lindsey to the showers.

Sure it's speculation... but it's speculation with 'video analysis'... I'm such a happy cat!

<purrs contentedly>

September 11, 2001

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 08:46 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Speculation..."
Great work here Ice. This looks to be about the closest thing we have had to actual evidence in a number of weeks.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 09:46 AM (EST)
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8. "Great info!"
I think Diane's email list tells us it's either Theresa or Lindsey to go this week.

If archery is the IC, Franks team will have a huge advantage with his experience, virtually assuring the mallrats go to TC.

After a few very difficult weeks of spoiling, it looks like MB is giving us an easy one this week.

How can we be sure this is the IC and not RC?

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TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 10:10 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Great info!"
'cause the immunity idol which IceCatt rightly pointed out next to Jiffy
doesn't visit for the RC, only the IC.

EXCELLENT SPOILING, IceCatt !!!


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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 10:32 AM (EST)
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10. "Ten Little Indians"
Wow! Magnificent analysis of this IC! Are you a bow and arrow person yourself, Icecat? Your Maple Leaf flag indicates Canada. Whoops! I'm analyzing you now instead of the pix. This message board reminds me of a collection (or school, if you will) of Hercule Poirots and Miss Marples. Excellent sleuths all! And what is "Survivor" except Agatha Christie television? MB is British and somehow I get the feeling that his favorite book of Dame Agatha's, like mine, is "And Then There Were None". It totally ruled my adolescent mystery mind. Ten strangers thrown into an inhospitable locale, then picked off one by one by a homocidal maniac intent on justice. In America it's sometimes called "Ten Little Indians." In fact, with the bow and arrows it sure looks like there's ten little Indians this week. Boron can't afford to throw another IC. But are we sure that Lindsey goes this week? If they don't find out about her votes, and vote for her instead for Brandon, it could be Tom who goes(vis a vis Silas' chats). I hope it's Lindsey. So then she's hospitalized AFTER she's booted? Possibly?
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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-01, 09:04 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Ten Little Indians"
I hope you are right about the possibility of Tom going, I cannot stand the man. Lindsey is annoying, but not as much as Tom.

I just have to say that IceCat has earned the right to purr with joy, he did a fantastic job.

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sonrod 25 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 03:58 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Great info!"
While I agree Frank should have the advantage with his bowhunting experiences, it doesn't mean his tribe will win. Look at episode 5 RC: Tom should have had the advantage in herding the goats, and it didn't help his tribe win. But I do concede that Boran will have the advantage especially with Frank having the last shot to win the challenge.
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 01:05 PM (EST)
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11. "Purrfect, Ice!"
Oh my. Ice, you continue to amaze. You do know that brains are sexy, right? *wink* (And to whoever was asking earlier, yes, Ice is a tomcat).

My fellow feline, you never cease to amaze. I LOVE this post! For once, all the puzzle pieces fall into place, and it's even an adult-level puzzle, not a kindergarten one! It also goes along with the trend of Frank as a likeable guy.

Also a note, yes - on S2 they had time to practice for the boomerang challenge, and I also remember reading that they were given prior instruction by some Aussies at their own camps.

(And as for MB "rigging" it by choosing something that Boran would win - what about the goat-herding challenge? Shouldn't that have favored Tom? I wonder if another IC/RC switch was pulled - in S2, the puzzle challenge is what won the chickens, but this puzzle challenge was for immunity and the goat herding won the chickens. Just a thought - it doesn't really matter other than being one more possible incident of MB manipulation.)



dangerkitty
Goddess of Words

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Rain Crow 374 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 01:11 PM (EST)
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12. "More Archery Speculation..."
Great work IceCat!!! I believe you are on track here, at least for the results if not the actual shooting/scoring procedure. My only concern is...what if they have to ignite all five targets? Regardless, I still think the end result will be the same.

More considerations:
(1) One vidcap shows Lex preparing to draw a bow in a most unprofessional manner. Proof that they did not have a good teacher?

(2) I belive the vidcaps showing the six people at TC probably IS the next episode. The one with the six around the fire is particulary telling since I believe the person on the extreme left is Tom. I don't think anyone else has that size/shape.

So, right now I am leaning toward a Samburu TC. Since I cannot believe that Tom/Lex/Kelley will fail to find out or deduce that Lindsey has votes, I think she will join her old buddy Silas.

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 03:23 PM (EST)
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16. "One question"
Ice, my earlier praise still stands, but one thing is troubling me...

Why are there so many arrows left in the bucket? Next to Frank, clearly there are several. Next to Tom, you can see the bucket but it's not as clear what/how many are in it - though I do think I see arrow shafts, several.

Could this be the end of round one, not the final shot? Can you think of a reason why there would be extra arrows in the bucket(s)?


dangerkitty
Goddess of Words

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 03:32 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: One question"
my guess would be that they have to hit all the targets (maybe not even in order) and so if one person misses, people will get multiple shots, and need multiple arrows...
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 03:34 PM (EST)
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18. "In Season One..."
In the season one archery challenge they had a whole quiver of arrows for each side. Each contestant woould select through the available arrows for one that they liked... there were arrows left over after all had shot.

I think that this is only fair as the arrows appear to be rough hewn and would, thus, possess somewhat individualized flight characteristics (to borrow a phrase from aviation).

Since a number of arrows can been chosen, there is less likelihood of someone saying that their arrow was defective as they chose the arrow themselves.

September 11, 2001

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 03:41 PM (EST)
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19. "Ah"
That makes total sense. There wasn't a clear way to have rounds, and if it were first to hit ALL targets, I think there would have to be even more arrows then we see.

I think in S2 they had several boomerangs to choose from too, didn't they?

Thanks Ice, I knew you would explain it!



dangerkitty
Goddess of Words

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TwinkyDik 24 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 09:39 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Speculation..."
Icecat I think you have these the wrong way round.

In this shot I think Tom is aiming at a different target

Not that this makes much difference.
The fat bast@rd will miss it regardless...

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-01, 00:56 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Speculation..."
I did allow for for what you are saying in my post:

... They could just as easily be firing 'cross-court' at the opposing line of targets....

It doesn't make much difference as each line has just as many hit targets at the time of shooting.

September 11, 2001

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 09:53 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Archery Immunity Challenge Speculation..."
Ice,
Not to be a naysayer, but something's still nagging at me that this is too easy. And I do appreciate that it was not easy but rather hard work to produce this analysis. By easy I mean that using logic from the material you came to a clear conclusion.

dangerkitty's point about multiple rounds struck a chord for me, in that:
Most Survivor challenges don't go best two out of five or such like. They go, first one to complete ALL of the challenge.
In other words it's not OK for you to all be bad shots but beat each other by one. You must get them all lit and we will go till you accomplish that. Much more challenging.

Response?

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-01, 01:15 AM (EST)
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25. "Limited Time and Limited Arrows..."
I doubt that they would have a challenge that was open ended (especially involving such a high degree of skill as firing arrows) when there are a limited number of arrows and a limited amount of time.

The boomerang challenge was one shot per contestant.

If everyone gets one shot, that's 10 shots being fired. That will take a great deal of time on it's own. If every single target has to be eventually hit (taking multiple rounds) it could take a very long time to complete the competition.

The fact some targets in the front are lit and Tom is definitely aiming at a rear target is also evidence against them being all done in order. Remember MB's tendency to mislead in the video previews. Tom's shot is followed by a close up of a red fringed idol mask being hit. It would appear that the red fringed masks are in the front row and Tom is aiming to the back.

Also remember that my sequence of events was submitted as speculation. Speculation that included what form of gameplay would be the most exciting. A team-based archery competition would be most exciting if the poor shots still had a chance of making a target explode (ie: they fire at the front targets) and a great deal of suspense (ie: the best shots fire at the end at the furthest targets).

There are other ways to conduct a team archery competition but I don't think that there are many ways that are as TV friendly as a single pass through the targets finishing with each team's best shooters holding there respective team's destiny in their own hands. Going through the firing order repeatedly until all the targets are hit would not be as exciting IMO.

This is the nice thing about speculation...

... it's easy to defend.

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Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 01:45 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
IceCat, an amazing post. As usual you are a marvel of vidcap analysis.

A thought to ponder: MB has given the spoilers a huge amount of information this week with these vidcaps after being exceeding stingy. He knows that Frank being an avid bow hunter is in his profile so the assumption would be that Frank would lead the Boran to victory. In S1, Kelly was a raft guide but the Tagi still lost the canoe rowing challenge to Pagong with Kelly steering (much to her dismay). As devil's advocate, I have to throw out the notion that Samburu could pull an upset here.

My understanding is that it's pretty hard to hit the deer with a bow and arrow. If Frank is an avid bowhunter and used to hitting moving targets rather than stationary, he should be able to nail that target pretty close to the bulls eye. But that may be just what MB wants us to think...

Help, I can't stop contradicting myself.

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 02:02 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
further thinking...
if Boran wins, Lindsey is the likely bootee. but if that happens, i see Teresa going in Ep7 to finish Diane's list as rather unlikely, unless they're scared the merge will be delayed even more than one episode...or unless Clarence is not as much on the outs with old Boran as we are led to believe (which is possible, they definitely seemed to have mended things pretty completely in Ep 4 (or so i hear, i missed that ep) and Ethan's comments to Silas may just have been misdirection to keep all the votes on one person)
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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 02:42 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
>further thinking...
>if Boran wins, Lindsey is the
>likely bootee. but if
>that happens, i see Teresa
>going in Ep7 to finish
>Diane's list as rather unlikely,
>unless they're scared the merge
>will be delayed even more
>than one episode...or unless Clarence
>is not as much on
>the outs with old Boran
>as we are led to
>believe (which is possible, they
>definitely seemed to have mended
>things pretty completely in Ep
>4 (or so i hear,
>i missed that ep) and
>Ethan's comments to Silas may
>just have been misdirection to
>keep all the votes on
>one person)


Ethan and Mamakim were PRETTY harsh in their comments about Silas this past week. I was shocked actually. I thought it was just Tom vs. Clarence. Easygoing Ethan really let rip. And yes, we ALL thought the Goat Farmer would win the Goat challenge. including I think MB. I don't think they threw that one on purpose. And yes, all this week's MOUNTAINS of spoilers may be just that. This overabundance of clues is REALLY suspicous. MB has fooled us so many times, and just this week, too. Everyone thought it was three tribes. I feel like I've already seen this weeks show and where's the surprise? I feel like I watched it on IceCat's Canadian TV set already.(And was probably more entertained than I will be on Thursday.)
After this past week's lollapalooza, this next Ep. has got to be disappointing. So maybe we're all being set up, and maybe not. He's off in Tahiti now(and BOY does it look gorgeous there!)and maybe he wasn't paying attention this week. Are they really gonna have a new show on Thanksgiving and not a recap?
Also, I've checked back through some of MB's old quotes and he doesn't mention this switch as the ONLY change. He said, And I quote,"There will be a FEW suprises" So there's more coming. Like maybe NO MERGE at all?!?

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-01, 10:01 PM (EST)
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23. "Kelly Injured?"
another interesting thing i found in these vidcaps:

is kelly injured? or is it just a brace onher forearm? i would assume they would wear braces in an archery competition, but none of the others (lex, clarence, kim p) seem to be wearing one...plus it seems unlikely they would be given that luxary...

so what happened to kelly? have we seen her wearing such a device on her arm before? do we have any spoilers that say she may have gotten a minor injury on her arm?

not that it matters at all really, but its interesting

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-01, 01:36 AM (EST)
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26. "I Think That is Lindsey..."
She's doing that puffy lower lip thing that Lindsey does when she's concentrating. Regardless of whether it is Lindsey or Kelly, when one fires an arrow, the fletches will often strike the sides of the forearm as the arrow speeds casusing cuts or friction burns.

You are right they probably would not provide arm guards for the contestants to use, but...

If a contestant had cuts and abrasions to their arms after repeated practicing, they would be bandaged prior to the competition. Lindsey seems to be a bit of an injury magnet (the psychologists out their must be having a field day with that).

If Lindsey is injured prior to competition, it lends credibility to the idea that there were practice sessions in advanced. The practice sessions where frank will be revealed as the 'pretty good teacher'.

Let's not forget folks...

What I submitted was informed, logical speculation. It's easy to defend speculation. Maybe we shouldn't overly discuss this one idea lest it achieve too much press and influence the ideas of others.

The actual competition could easily be entirely different than what I described. My scenario is simply one which is compatible with what is seen in two frames of rm-compressed video. If a picture is worth a thousand words, I think that there is a two-thousand word limit on this one, folks!

September 11, 2001

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-01, 02:46 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: I Think That is Lindsey..."
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-01 AT 02:54 AM (EST)

you think so? hmmm
it seems more like Kelly to me...it looks like a prettier face than Lindsey's (but then every female out there is prettier than Lindsey, so that's not much to go by :p)
plus the figure seems thinner than Lindsey
I still think it's Kelly, but I guess I see a possibility of Lindsey now that you say that

edit to take out stoopid wrong comment! :p

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11-11-01, 02:48 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: I Think That is Lindsey..."
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-01 AT 02:55 AM (EST)

Hmmm Ice, you think we've said enough already?
Really, this analysis you put together's the most interesting stuff we've had for weeks and has gotten people looking and thinking. I don't think it's anything like a dead horse.

In that vein, I would never have noticed the bandage but now I see it, and I agree with you this could be Lindsey, but I am waffling now that I_AM_HE pointed out the details above. Kelly has a distinctive and rather large head (all those brains), if that helps. But that's not why I'm posting.

In S1 they gave them the bows and arrows to practice with (and no trainer as they did with the boomerangs, which I guess are more esoteric) for a day I think. I remember Jenna was determined to win and practiced far more than anyone else and got really good. Makes sense they would get the same kind of practice window. Perhaps this player obsessed over winning and got chafed or just has tender skin.

I must say that with each episode the hospital stay looks more like a reality. dangerkitty really nailed Lindsey's psyche: she's using so much adrenalin she will crash when booted and her emotions will do her in as the clincher. Silas described her as sweet(?) but excessively emotional, which may be a clue that she ultimately has a total if temporary meltdown and has to go to hospital.

Re my response to you above, I was really interested in whether you and others think it's more Survivoresque to make them light all of their targets to win immunity. (When that bucket of arrows is gone, Jiffy could have a backup.)

The psychological difference that I see behind the choice of rules:
1) it's a test that gives you one chance to make your best shot, and then the most successes win.
2) the theme is that you must get the job done for the tribe and keep chipping away at the goal. I could see people getting really frustrated by missing more than once, which goes along with the sadistic side of this show.
Either way it puts the spotlight on individual performance rather than cooperation, much like the RC that KimJ recently blew.

More questions: does the order you go determine which target you must light, or can you take a shot at whichever you think you can make? All the permutations require different strategies for who goes first. If they continue until all are lit, then the best shooters should go first so as to be the first to shoot twice, but if they go for one shot each, from front to back, then the best shooters would go last.

Does anyone know of a purpose to this target lighting that goes along with African tribal life other than that archery is an important survival skill?

Edited to totally waffle on whether it's Lindsey or Kelly.

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11-11-01, 03:37 AM (EST)
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31. "A Logical Way to Order..."
... the players would be to force the teams to shoot the front targets first and then work their way to back. Then have the teams choose who they want to go first, second, etc. The teams will know who their best shots are because of the practice sessions held in advance.

The fact that they have to choose their firing order according to ability will emphasize the team aspect of the game. The fact that the weaker shooters get to shoot at a closer target gives thema greater chance of contributing to the team effort. Not only is this logical, it makes for good team building and it makes for good TV.

If they didn't run the archery competition the way I suggest then they should have... and I should be working for MB!

Hey...

I do possess half of a film studies degree, I am a trained telecom tech and I have a military background...

I would be ideal for working on MB's production team...

I have to start working on a resume!

September 11, 2001

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11-12-01, 02:50 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: A Logical Way to Order..."
Ice, Noooo!
Yes, MB would be lucky to get you, but you cannot defect to the enemy! Unless you become an informer...

*and yes, your theory makes for a better challenge than going until they're all lit*

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11-11-01, 03:01 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: I Think That is Lindsey..."
Once again I am writing to say that I think you are right, Ice Cat. Lindsey, trouble is her middle name. Or as she so aptly discribed herself, "The Walking Mistake". This bandage may jive with the "someone is injured in the archery competition" rumor I heard elsewhere, but I heard that Brandon "accidentally" shot someone. "Those Three", Winkin', Blinkin' and Nod, must be shaking in their baby booties when they see Silas is not at the next RC.Lindsey is starting to make Tonya Harding look dignified. Somebody who is that accident prone could be suffering from Fetal Alcohol Syndrome, meaning her mother was a boozer, and the child is born, well, clumsy, and confused to say the least. A new Danish movie, distributed by Miramax, is opening after the new year called "Italian for Beginners" which partially deals with this topic. And yes, I am a film critic. And no, there are virtually no good movies out there. That's why I spend ALL MY TIME on SURVIVOR! It's epic! It's exciting! It's character driven! It's got a great plot and great suspense(well,most of the time). It's GRRRRREAT television and the film business could learn more than a few lessons from "Survivor". In addition to character and plot, they could learn a little about how to make stars, which is what these people are becoming, for better or worse. And they're not going away.There fifteen minutes should have been up a long time ago, but it's not. Look at Susan Hawk. The losers even win on this show! I love it! It's like MGM of the new century! It's like a new movie every week, more than a TV show. However, MB's big mistake this year is that it's too harsh, too severe. It's not glamourous like the other two Survivors. There's no beach. No ocean to jump into. But it looks like he figured that out by going to the EXTREMELY beautiful Nuku Hiva next. I knew when he took the moisture out of Survivor, the ratings would go south. Maybe after the Merge, (IF it ever happens) he'll relocate them to the nearby river. Has it rained ONCE in Africa?
For what it's worth, I actually liked ALL these people the minute I set eyes on them. Even more so than the last season. They all seemed so NASTY at first, but then they grew on you. These people seem on the whole more decent. And I bet you may see some of them endure and prosper. My money is on Ethan, if he can act. He's certainly sympathetic. He could be a sports announcer no problem, but I could see him moving on to a career. The way Colby might, and the way Silas won't. Silas has all the makings, of a porn star, if you ask me. Even on a Soap, he'd strain credulity. Colby had movie star charisma, which is one of the reasons people liked the last series so much because we saw so much of him. I wasn't surprised when Stephen Spielberg and Tom Cruise asked to meet with him. Jerri's even doing well on E! with her hostessing the pre-show. She's poised, affable, and guess what, SYMPATHETIC! They put Richard and her in the same studio this week and she held her own with him. Richard, of course, if a legend, even if he does, like Lana Turner, keep ending up in court. I don't see any of the women from this show being persued by Playboy. Only Ethan has "it". If you ask me.
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11-11-01, 03:07 AM (EST)
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30. "sorry, totally unrelated to the thread..."
but Rose Red's comments made me think this:
bwahahaha! Silas is the Joey Tribiani of Survivor!
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11-12-01, 09:16 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Kelly Injured?"
>is kelly injured? or is it just a brace onher forearm?
This may be related to the anatomy of women vs. men. As I learned in my high school archery class, the carrying angle of women's arms if vastly different than men's--if you let your arms dangle down, you will see that men's arms hang straight and women's arms have a definite bend--some more pronounced than others. I found that when I held the bow correctly, it resulted in long, bloody scrapes and bruises from the upper arm to the forearm because of this, and had to wear leather shields up my arm for the duration of the course. Had one of the best records in my class, and the ugliest injuries. Perhaps this is the reason she's wearing protection?

GT

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11-12-01, 00:16 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
Hiya Cat and everybody...

Just thought I'd add the caps I made from the CBS preview that aired today. Things are a little clearer in these ones.

In the shots of Tom, I tried to cap two scenes so you could see the progress of his arrow. In 30, you should be able to see it clearly, just before the first target. In 31, look at the second target. In pic 30, there's only on jagged fire spark in the right center of the target. In pic 31, there's another jagged spark just below that and it's Tom's arrow. In slow-mo, on the preview, it looks like TOM's aiming at the 3rd target on HIS side.


And here are the other shots from this challenge, for whatever they're worth.






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11-12-01, 00:22 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
hmmm, Bungler's caps make the questioned figure look more like Lindsey than I would have thought

looks like you're probably right IceCat!
*tips his hat*

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11-12-01, 00:38 AM (EST)
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34. "RE: Frank the Teacher... of Archery?"
That definitely seems to be Lindsey. There's a mark on her face, just like the one Linz suffered in the earlier challenge.
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11-12-01, 03:29 AM (EST)
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37. "Lex and the others' form"
Lex is not just slightly askew on his position.
He's holding his bow like a crossbow.
I know I've seen a lot of movies where the crossbow archers shoot fire over the castle walls or into enemy ranks...I guess Lex has too. He's got the mad warrior look on his face.
Braveheart meets Mad Max or something.

Too bad it happens to be a longbow, Lex, and a crossbow design is completely different! Duh.

KimP and Lindsey both have their bows askew. The cap of Clarence doesn't show enough, but he looks good. From what I remember of practicing archery, the bow's supposed to stay vertical and your right elbow pull straight back. It was years ago, but I recall proper body alignment was key, as with golf.
We must have an archery enthusiast among us to educate us...

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11-13-01, 01:49 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Lex and the others' form"
My first post so bare with me please. The type of bow that they are using(some African variation of a longbow, I imagine) is very forgiving to the angle at which it is held. If it was a compound bow(The kind with pullies and cams) it would need to be verticle. Actually it might be easier to shoot this way as the arrow will not fall of the arrow rest as easy. As with all bows though, practice and consistant pull back and aim points can make up for bad form. Just for reference, I have heard that the Native Americans used to shoot the bow slanted, maybe not as much as Lex, but slanted. Seems to me, if you are hunting(or fighting settlers), you wouldn't want to tip off you intended target by sticking the bow up too high.
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11-12-01, 02:29 AM (EST)
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35. "More speculation of Boran victory..."
IceCat, fine job as always!

I agree completely about Frank being the "previously disliked" who turns out to be a "pretty good teacher". The clue is not an obvious red herring, because it is concealed behind ambiguous language, an indication that it is probably a legitimate spoiler. You wouldn't refer to him as a "pretty good teacher" if they lost.

As is often the case this MB's previews, the tribe shown to be "leading", usually loses. Notice that Samburu is shown "leading" with two burning targets, to Borans one...

In Bunglers vidcaps, notice all the individual shots focusing on the Samburu (Lindsey, Kim P., Lex), another indication that they do not do well.

I would speculate that the IC consists of the two tribes alternating shots in an attempt to light their 5 targets. They must start at the front and work their way towards the back, with the first team to light all five winning.

In the overall shot we can see that the first target on the left side has already burned itself out, with the second burning more vigorously. At he same time the first Boran target on the right is apparently the most recently hit, because of the amount of fire. Looks like Samburu gets off to a 2-0 start and Boran comes back to be down 2-1, when we see Tom and Frank preparing to shoot...

I would speculate that they shoot until the first team lights all five targets, regardless of how long it takes. Last years endurance challenge took 10 hours and it still fit in a 15 minute time frame. So look for them to complete the challenge and look for Frank's pupils to emerge victorious...

Krautboy

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11-12-01, 03:52 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: More speculation of Boran victory..."
Krautboy--
First I thought it would go as you say (as I posted above):
>>I would speculate that the IC consists of the two tribes alternating shots in an attempt to light their 5 targets. They must start at the front and work their way towards the back, with the first team to light all five winning.

Then Ice came up with a good theory for one shot each and changed my mind. Now you change it back. Man, I'm really becoming quite the waffler these days *waves at GT*

Reasons I incline(d) towards getting them all lit:
Visual of 5 burning or burnt gives a sense of completion to the viewer and creates a spectacle that says Victory.
Use or consumption of all the props.
Bigger Blaze theory.
Random element. If they rotate in a set order, Frank cannot plan to be shooting at the last target because he doesn't know who will miss.

Bungler makes a case that Tom is shooting at #3, the next one to be lit. If so, Frank also must be going for #3, if we think Boran #2 is ablaze but obscured by #1. Would Frank have positioned himself in the middle for a one-round go at it? Doubtful. Therefore 2 people may have missed and he finds himself at #3 when he hoped to be going for #5. Now the weakest shooters, who probably went first, have to shoot at the farthest targets, which makes more misses likely on both sides.

Hopefully Clarence can nail #4 and Frank can hit #5. No shots of Ethan, but he's not the steadiest chap from what we've seen.

I don't agree that the vidcaps favor Samburu though, because they show Samburu with terrible form and Clarence looking terrific and intent. Same with showing us Tom vs. Frank.

The only reason I can think of for Burnett to show us this IC that favors Boran is that Lindsey is now very unpopular and, as with Jerri, her boot will satisfy people, so he wants the audience to see it coming and salivate with anticipation.

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11-12-01, 10:56 AM (EST)
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40. "Adding to the Confusion."
Just to give everyone more to think about, here are a few archery thoughts.

If MB or Jiffy Probe allowed the Survivors to practice, due to safety considerations, I doubt if they practiced with flaming arrows. Trajectory of an arrow is based on a number of factors including arrow speed, arrow weight, arrow drag, "angle of the dangle", etc. A gasoline-soaked rag on the end of an arrow will dramatically change the flight characteristics of the arrow. Even if they allowed them to practice with arrows equipped with a rag tip, the weight of the gas would change things quite a bit. I am anxious to see if Frank had enough sense to have them practice with water-soaked rag fronted arrows to prepare them for the weight difference?

In archery, it is pretty easy to get the arrow pointed in the general direction of the target. Once the arrow is heading in the general direction of the target, rarely will anyone miss very far to either side...left to right. Alternatively, the most likely mistake is to shoot over or under the intended target because of the difficulty of judging the trajectory of the arrow. Notice that the targets are all vertically elongated. Each has a ceremonial mask in the center...which serves as sort of a bullseye or aiming point. These targets have been designed to be easy to hit.

I also wonder if the fringe on the targets is soaked with gas. If so, even a "near miss" would ignite the target. I would guess than as long as the target goes up in flames, it will count.

Another thing to consider is the position of the targets. IceCat's graphics show the targets to be pretty much overlapping from the archers firing point. However, I do not think the targets overlap when you look at the vidcap. I believe that the archer would see a gap of 5 feet (more or less) between each target. So, I think that the archers are expected to aim at individual targets rather than randomly hitting whatever target gets in the way of randomly flung arrows. My question here is:

what happens if a shooter hits the wrong target?

In Bungler's vidcaps #26 and 34, the archers are shown with the same target in the foreground. I tried to check out angles and it appears that the camera is in a fixed position for both shots. It was hard to tell where the arrow was being aimed, but it appeared to me that both were aiming in generally the same direction. The images lead you to believe they are shooting at the target in the image, but I do not think so. Clearly there is a lot of foreshortening with the camera lens, and I could easily believe that this target might be the fifth and last target. Perhaps someone with the graphics capability could pursue this further if it proves interesting.

Next, in Bungler's # 32 vidcap, notice the colors and shapes of the targets as well as the position of the masks. I appears to me that they are either Boran targets 3 and 4 or 4 and 5. I am inclined to think 3 and 4 primarily because of the color of the fringe. This means that target 3 gets lit up before 4. This would support the arguement for shooting the targets in order.

Bungler's image 28 is, I think, a vidcap of Samburu's number 1 target or the tall and skinny target number 2 getting whacked. There is nothing but rock in the background. From the target/camera angle, I think the other 3 targets would show some grass and/or trees along with the rock.

Next, Bungler's image 29 shows Lex preparing to spastically shoot an arrow from a horizontal position (unless he realigns the bow before firing). Notice the target fringe in the foreground. The camera angle and Lex's positioning leads me to believe that it is the Boran number 1 target. This could mean that Lex shoots before Boran gets any hits

Hope you all enjoy this little analysis. I doubt if I have solved the question of who wins IC, but this is some great detective work we are doing here with these vidcaps. My compliments to all of you.

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11-12-01, 12:47 PM (EST)
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41. "vidcap analysis"
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-01 AT 01:15 PM (EST)

When I uploaded my pics yesterday, I didn't have time to check in with what everybody had been saying. But I've spent some time this morning catching up, and then doing some capture analysis of my own. Hope it helps. First off, I think the trajectory and stance of all of the shooters could be important.

First we have a clear shot of Clarence. He's standing very straight and his arrow shoots out from his bow in a very straight shot.

Next we have Lindsey, who seems to be shooting up slightly. The way she seems to let go of the string on her bow makes her shot look very awkward.

Then we have Lex and Kim P. As some have observed, Lex is holding his bow almost like a crossbow and clearly shoots up in an arcing fashion, kind of like he's launching fire over castle walls. Would this possibly indicate that he's going for one of the long shots in the far distance? The same goes for Kim P. who is clearly shooting straight up.

This one of Tom is HUGE. Sorry about that. To be able to see the gentle arc his arrow takes, I had to make it that way. Notice that his stance seems to be very straight, and his arrow only seems to go up just slightly as it passes the first and second targets, then descends. It looks like he's shooting for the 3rd target, but if the arc his arrow is taking holds as it is in these shots, it might shoot over the 3rd target and hit the fourth.

Now, with this shot, I tried to show how the arrow is landing. It's from Samburu's side of the target range, and the arrow seems to be coming from a higher position and landing at a lower position. That would seem to indicate it might be Lindsey, Lex or Kim P. (who are all shooting UP with their arrows). Tom is shooting straight across, and his arrow passes what I think is this already-lit target anyways.

Here's a little analysis of that target and the targets on Samburu's side, to see if you agree that it's the same target.

And here's the same kind of analysis of the target on the other side (the one I think Frank will end up aiming for).

The only other thing I can think to add is that I had previously thought that the second target on Frank's (Boran's) side of the target range was clearly on fire. After re-watching the tape about 50 times though, I'm not so sure anymore. Target 2 on Samburu's side is definitely on fire (Target 1 is not). Target 1 on Boran's side is blazing brightly, but Target 2 might have been missed.

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11-12-01, 03:44 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: vidcap analysis"
Bungler, good points...wanted to add a few things.

The trajectory of the shots will be different, not only depending on the distance , but also on the strength of the archer. The further the arrow is pulled back (depending on strength), the flater a trajectory can be used. The weaker archers must increase the angle of trajectory to achieve the same distance. A higher arching trajectory will require much more luck to hit a target.

The other observation I wanted to add deals with the backgrounds. The river is seen in the background on the right side targets, and rocks/boulders are seen on the left hand side...


The rocks in the background of this vidcap seem more consistent with the second target on the left. It also seems unlikely that MB would show us the winning shot in the previews.

Krautboy

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11-12-01, 04:35 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: vidcap analysis"
The additional vidcaps are awesome Bungler! I believe you are on the right track. Please review my comments in the post above entitled "Adding to the Confusion" for supporting arguments and additional archery information.

In addition, I have now observed that the same target is in the foreground of Lindsey, KimP, and Lex. Don't know how significant that is, but it is interesting that three shooters from Samburu get to shoot and this target is not yet on fire. I would love to know the camera angle on this one!

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11-12-01, 03:13 PM (EST)
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42. "CBS Newletter"
My CBS EYEmail newsletter came in this morning. As Dalton posted last week, each week the preview is followed by a player profile (last 2 weeks were Linda and Kelly).

This week it's Frank:
Survivor Profile: Frank Garrison, 43, is a telephone company technician from Odessa, NY. An U.S. Army veteran who served with the 24th Infantry Division who lives by the 24th's "First to Fight" motto, he's an avid bow hunter and member of the NRA. Frank is married with two daughters and a third on the way. His luxury item is a set of Whitetail deer antlers. (bold emphasis mine)

If Survivor watchers didn't remember Frank was a bow hunter, this newsletter to viewers takes the opportunity to remind them.
Just noting that for whatever reason, CBS/Burnett's promos and are highlighting the fact that there's an archery IC favoring Boran and casting Frank as the new hero and comeback du jour.

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11-12-01, 06:00 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: CBS Newletter"
OFG: Thanks for the info, but what does it all mean?!

Will Frank be edited as the hero, Robinhood, who wins the Challenge, or is this another attempt at misdirection,leading us down the wrong path to assume the New Boran wins and Lindsey goes, when in reality Boran throws/loses the challenge and Clarence or Teresa get the boot? I'm confused...

Krautboy

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11-12-01, 06:18 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: CBS Newletter"
>>I'm confused...
Ditto, Krautboy. As you illustrated, it's a tossup to interpret. I posted the info to highlight the deliberateness of the focus, not because it helped me make up my mind.
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11-13-01, 04:15 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: CBS Newletter"
Good job, I thought I had found a spoiler You beat me to the boards
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11-13-01, 11:21 AM (EST)
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50. "Clarence the teacher of redemption?"
Obviously, Clarence and Frank have been the two disliked members that have been shown. You can see that J.P. has not been happy with the way people have been playing the game. To M.B., Survivor has never been just a game.

Clarence paid the dues for his mistake, and handled himself well, and we still see that Clarence is disliked, especially by Ethan. Could the teaching be in redemption. To not allow unforgiveness to hold you down. By joining Frank and Theresa, Clarence could teach a lesson on getting back up on your feet.

I think the Frank being the teacher of archery is too simple, and what we've seen in the past is the people who excel in something get too cocky and lose it for their team. Tom and the Goatherding, Kelly and the canoe challenge in S1.

Just a thought...

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11-13-01, 12:09 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: CBS Newletter--misdirection?"
That Frank is an avid bow hunter means he has mastered two things--stalking, and handling a very high tech hunting bow. The bows seen in the photos posted here (& in other posts) are much more basic tools, more like what I used in many summer camps, and made from saplings in my own backyard.

Basic archery skills are known to many people. Yes Frank can shoot, but can he teach? Can he help someone make the necessary corrections to their style & have the confidence to succeed? That's a people skill. Does Frank have good people skills? Not obvious from what we've seen so far. From what I know, "avid bow hunters" tend to be loners.

Anyone could have been a summer-camp bow-and-arrow ace, like I was, and understand the basics well enought to explain them. Even someone currently not liked much. Was Lindsey injured by a bow string as has been suggested, or is she knowledgable enough to fashion an arm guard for herself to prevent injury? I'm not saying she's my choice for the one who turns out to be a pretty good teacher, but I'm saying it could be anybody--Lindsey, Clarence, Kelly, not just Frank.

Swami

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11-13-01, 02:18 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: CBS Newletter--misdirection?"
Swami and cowboyroo, I like your points. Indeed, an avid bow hunter who stalks the woods for game is not your teacher type, and we have not seen Frank show patience when he tells people what needs to be done. I think we have been expecting the editing to show a hidden side to Frank, which could happen.

I agree that Clarence actually best fits the "disliked" description, although Lindsey fits probably as well as Frank. Clarence is the only one who's been generally disliked by everyone in his tribe before and after the switch (not counting Silas). (Although I never know how closely to take the preview wording--loosely and not picking on the exact words is my new philosophy.) And as for teaching skills, Clarence is a coach!

The pics we see of Samburu show bad form; Boran looks good, what little we see. Lindsey's own form doesn't look great; Clarence looks supurb in that photo. If Clarence helps Boran win, his stock should go up--not that it will save him after the merge, but it sure might put the brakes on any move to boot him pre-merge.

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Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-01, 03:08 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: CBS Newletter--misdirection?"
>The pics we see of Samburu
>show bad form; Boran looks
>good, what little we see.
> Lindsey's own form doesn't
>look great; Clarence looks supurb
>in that photo.

Actually, I think Lindsey & Kim from Samburu look just fine. You can angle a bent wood bow a lot, & still be pretty accurate so long as your aim is steady & your release smooth. In fact, its easier to hold the bow steady at a slight angle. Lex looks not quite ready to shoot, he has plenty of time to adjust his angle as he sights down the bow. And I agree Clarence looks superb; he has the draw power to do very well on those short range targets. The people with less pull can be seen trying for more arch. Maybe they are aiming at the furthestmost target?

My backyard archery knowledge is now exhausted, and I feel like I'm just quibbling, not adding anything useful so I'd better shut up now.

Swami

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-01, 03:35 PM (EST)
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55. "Archery skills"
Thanks Swami, you ARE adding useful info. My own experience with bow-and-arrow training was with a larger and more formal bow. (my mother taught me; we lived in the Mohave desert foothills and could go out and shoot pretty much anywhere) I just remember being told to line myself up carefully, so I was judging by that memory, and am happy to learn better information.

It had crossed my mind that the cap of "Crossbow Lex" was a deceptive frame from just before he straighted his bow...

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Rain Crow 374 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-01, 03:45 PM (EST)
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56. "Lex lets loose..."
as shown on one of Bungler's vidcaps. Don't know which one, but there are two of Lex, the second of which shows he releases the arrow with the bow in the horizontal position.

The horizontal position can be very effective, but generally only in the hands of a highly experienced archer. Lex also appears to be using the awkward and difficult to master thumb and index finger "pinch" when drawing the bow rather than the more typical three finger draw (right index finger above the arrow and the middle and ring finger below. His style and body language does not reveal him to be an experienced archer.

I will guess that he misses.

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