LAST EDITED ON 10-10-01 AT 07:07 PM (EST)
OK, as we head into the final day of spoiling, I'm going to try and make this a "state of the spoiling" post of sorts -- hoping to recap where we stand on everything and tie information from several different threads together. If we think this "state of the spoiling" thread is a good idea, then maybe we can make it a weekly thing.
IC/RC Challenge Winner:
At this point, it seems clear that Samburu wins AT LEAST ONE IC before Boran wins a IC. This is largely supported by the below thread, which clearly identifies all EIGHT SAMBURU members breaking from a huddle wearing different clothing than has been shown during the first challenge. As the huddle breaks, Frank leaves the huddle taking the idol off-screen, with our speculation being that he is returning it to Jeffy as the Episode 2 IC is about it begin (note, yes, it's likely Ep 2's IC, Icecat has posted a great analysis as to why he thinks this footage is from Ep 2, but 1) for the purposes of Week 1, whether this footage is from Ep 2, 3, etc. is irrelevant, what is important is that's it's after Ep 1; 2) IceCat lists some GOOD REASONS why this could be Ep 2's Immunity Challenge, but it is still possible it is from Ep 3 (hey, at some point, one of these Survivor series is going to have to start with the same tribe losing the first two weeks.)
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/1574.shtml
Below is one of the group huddle images that shows the idol and all eight Samburu survivors:
The Samburu wins idea is also supported by many images for Samburu gathering water yet none of Boran doing the same -- an activity that only the WINNING tribe would be able to do until after the 1st tribal Council, since historically only the winning tribe receives fire before the first council and therefore only the winning tribe would have the fire required to boil any water gathered. The counterpoint to this is that given the animal danger threat, noth tribes might be given fire IMMEDIATELY upon arrival.
This Week's Bootee
This is where things get a lot less certain. At this point, we know it is a Boran.
FIRST BIT OF BOOTEE EVIDENCE
The CBS Early show report by Tracy Smith footage is the footage that showed the Samburu with the idol post-Episode 1. The SAME REPORT shows AT LEAST TWO BORAN's hanging out waiting for a challenge to start -- that image is shown below. The speculation is that this footage is from the same day and pre-Episode 2 Immunity Challenge timeframe as the "SAMBURU HUDDLE" footage shown earlier in the report. Additionally, it also seems to match with some earlier footage showing many crew members and Jeffy hanging around what appears to be a makeshift outdoor bar set preparing to shoot the day's challenge.
IMHO, only TOM and KELLY are definitively identified in the above image. Clarence MAY BE to Kelly's right (wearing the tribal bandana.) Given the hair length, the guy in blue shirt shown kneeling is not ETHAN, and LEX also appears unlikely, so it is most likely a crew member. Someone else's shorts are shown to the cameraman's RIGHT, however, we have no information on who this person might be (HINT, everyone try and match those shorts/shirt to either Diane, Kim J., Ethan, Lex, or Jessie.) Assuming this image is from the second IC, then Kelly, Tom, and perhaps Clarence seem safe for Ep 1.
SECOND BIT OF BOOTEE EVIDENCE
The other big piece of photo evidence that we have is LEX's "broken trust" speech that was shown in the Survivor Preview episode that aired last week. A vidcap is below:
Clearly ID'd are Lex, Tom, Diane, Kelly, Ethan, and Jessie. Clarence and Kim J. seem to be missing. The questions are does their absence mean anything and when is this scene from? The consensus seems to be that this scene is from the first episode. Whether Kim J. and Clarence's absence means anything is a matter of some debate. Whether the survivors are even LISTENING to Lex is also unclear. Speculation seems to fall into two camps -- either LEX is trying to save his own hide for something he's done, or he's assuming a bit of of "leader" role and trying to address the transgressions of someone else.
OTHER BITS OF BOOTEE EVIDENCE
Outside of images, and the theories above we have the following ideas regarding the Boran members that I've scraped together:
DIANE
- Reasons for boot: Seems aggressive, appears to immediately run off with the map. Jeffy says the first three minutes set the tone and within the first part of the show it's very obvious who is going to get booted. Also was reported to have returned with corn rows.
- Reasons against boot: Reports that she came home tan and having lost weight (Counterpoint from folks who have travelled to the area is that it is not unusual for outsiders to lose siginificant amounts of weight when just travellig around that country.)
LEX
- Reasons for boot: Seems to be positioning himself as a leader.
- Reason against boot: Seems to be positioning himself as a leader.
JESSIE:
- Reasons for boot: ? - I can't remember anything
- Reason against boot: ? - I can't remember anything
KIMP.:
- Reasons for boot: ? - I can't remember anything
- Reason against boot: The school of thought that the nicknames for the two Kim's means that both make it to the merged tribe.
ETHAN:
- Reasons for boot: ? - I can't remember anything
- Reason against boot: ? - I can't remember anything, I'm not convinced he's in the above image along with Kelly and Tom (keep looking folks!)
CLARENCE:
- Reasons for boot: ? - I can't remember anything
- Reason against boot: Appears to be shown in the Ep 2 pre-challenge setup photos. We have images of him wearing more than one warpaint pattern on his face, which suggests he gets the chance to wear the paint more than once since we believe he only wears it at challenges.
KELLY:
- Reasons for boot: Seems to be a MANipulator, appears to be a spoiled little rich girl not cut out for survival life.
- Reasons against boot: Shown in what appears to be Ep 2 pre-challenge setup photos. Eye candy always seems to last at least a couple of rounds.
TOM:
- Reasons for boot: Suspected STRONG competitor
- Reasons against boot: Shown in what appears to be Ep 2 pre-challenge setup photos. Multiple reports of MASSIVE weight loss.
Wow, OK, I'm done folks, time to regroup and finish this spoiling off...
-SB
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