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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-23-01, 12:54 PM (EST) "It may just be Keith that must win immunity" I was responding to a post of the "MB has slipped" post, http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1349.shtml#15, in that the person had stated that Colby had to win immunity or he is gone. I started to go through the scenerio and realized that in fact, Keith has the most to fear right now. First lets look at the things that we know... 1. Colby stated that he wants to be in the final 2 with Keith because he should win that match-up. 2. Keith was scared last week, though not enough to bring his backpack. 3. Keith has the most previous votes now due to last weeks votes given to him by both Liz and Roger. 4. Roger approached Colby last week in a last attempt to get Colby to vote along with them to rid the Thursday night cable waves of Keith. Now of course Colby could not do that last week as it would not have been in his best interest. If he had removed Keith then Roger and Liz, if Colby lost IC this week, could have voted off Colby. He would have known this and as such went along and voted off Roger. But this week it comes down, as always, to immunity. 1. If Colby wins immunity this week then he likely would stay with Keith and Tina and vote off Liz in the hopes of winning the final immunity challenge. If so, then he picks Keith and wins. 2. If Colby does not win immunity but Keith did then Colby would be very worried as he has the most previous votes besides Keith. He would try to stick with Tina and Keith who would likely betray him, Colby goes. 3. Neither Colby or Keith win immunity. This one would change everything. Now we know that Jeffy made a comment about Liz kicking but. Maybe he meant in the challenges, maybe not. If This scenerio plays out then Colby would be highly worried about sticking with his alliance (Keith and Tina) as he would be worried about the backstab. Liz would also (unless she won the immunity) be worried about being voted off and in either case may tell Colby that her intentions are to once again vote for Keith. Keith would be the one to go in a tie break. Colby would know that. He would likely realize that his best chance of moving on is by voting off Keith along with Liz. This would trouble him because the final 2 would be a toss up if he was against Tina or Liz. Likely he would pick Tina but it is still a toss up. He knows that his best chance is against Keith, but... After thinking this one out he would likely realize that his best odds of making it to final 3 is by voting off Keith. So... 1. Tina wins immunity, Colby votes with Liz and Keith goes. 2. Liz wins immunity then COlby has to vote off Keith, along with Liz, Keith goes. 3. Colby wins immunity, Liz likely goes though it could be Keith or Tina. 4. Keith win immunity Colby is screwed unless he can convince Tina and Keith to stay after Liz. If Keith does not win immunity and Colby does not win immunity, then look for a Keith ousting. Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"?!!!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    One thing I am not so sure about...... MDSkinner 04-23-01 1    RE: One thing I am not so sure abou... Conspiracy Jim 04-23-01 4        RE: One thing I am not so sure abou... MDSkinner 04-23-01 5    RE: One thing I am not so sure abou... Play2Survive 04-24-01 8        RE: One thing I am not so sure abou... MDSkinner 04-24-01 11  I agree that Keith has a lot to fea... bebekid 04-23-01 2  RE: It may just be Keith that must ... Goblin 04-23-01 3  RE: It may just be Keith that must ... Loree 04-23-01 6    RE: It may just be Keith that must ... Outfrontgirl 04-23-01 7        RE: It may just be Keith that must ... Ptaz 04-25-01 12    RE: It may just be Keith that must ... Play2Survive 04-24-01 9  RE: It may just be Keith that must ... PepeLePew13 04-24-01 10    Themessenger spoiler Outfrontgirl 04-26-01 13        RE: Themessenger spoiler sleeeve 04-26-01 14            RE: Themessenger spoiler Outfrontgirl 04-26-01 15

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-23-01, 02:26 PM (EST) 1. "One thing I am not so sure about................." >>1. Tina wins immunity, Colby votes with Liz and Keith goes. >>2. Liz wins immunity then COlby has to vote off Keith, along >>with Liz, Keith goes. >>3. Colby wins immunity, Liz likely goes though it could be >>Keith or Tina. >>4. Keith win immunity Colby is screwed unless he can convince >>Tina and Keith to stay after Liz. I guess I am not so sure that in scenario #1 that Colby will necessarily vote against Keith. The reason that I say this is because I know that Colby feels comfortable with his chances against Keith, should they make the final two. I also think that Colby likes his chances of winning the next immunity challenge regardless of who it is against. With that being said, in the long run it plays to Colby's favor to keep Keith in this thing to the final two, since from our standpoint that is Colby's only real shot of winning the million. I think that even Colby knows that he has virtually no shot of beating Liz, and that leaving her in the game might be the worst thing that he could do at this point. If Liz wins immunity, I totally agree with you that Keith is gone. Liz voted for him last week and there is no reason to believe that she will not vote for him again this week, unless something strange happens. If Colby wins immunity again, I agree that Liz is likely, but I do not agree that both Keith and Tina are also possible. I think Keith is also possible, but I would not say Tina at this point. The reason I do not think that Tina is even possible is because Tina beats anyone in a tie vote, and the worst that could happen to her is she ties with one of the three and ends up winning anyway. So the only aspect of this that I disagree with is the part where you say "it could be Keith or Tina". I completely agree with your 4th scenario. At this point Colby would seem more likely since he has won all of these challenges and I am sure people want him out, but he may be able to convince Keith and Tina to stick with him.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-23-01, 02:54 PM (EST) 4. "RE: One thing I am not so sure about................." You are right. I wasn't really thinking it out when I said it could be Tina. No matter what as long as Tina sticks with Keith, she does not go. As you pointed out, a tie-vote is the best that could happen. >>I guess I am not so sure that in scenario #1 that Colby will necessarily vote against Keith. The reason that I say this is because I know that Colby feels comfortable with his chances against Keith, should they make the final two. I also think that Colby likes his chances of winning the next immunity challenge regardless of who it is against. With that being said, in the long run it plays to Colby's favor to keep Keith in this thing to the final two, since from our standpoint that is Colby's only real shot of winning the million. I think that even Colby knows that he has virtually no shot of beating Liz, and that leaving her in the game might be the worst thing that he could do at this point. The only issue that I have with your comments above is that though Colby knows that his best chances are against Keith in the final 2, it comes down to surviving. If Tina wins immunty then Keith is the only other person with more votes than Colby. Colby would have to be worried about Keith and Tina backstabbing him. If that happened then he is gone, no matter what... unless he teams up with Liz and gets rid of Keith. In fact since CBS makes a point of telling us * One Survivor is spending a lot of time on his own, leaving another to muse that he must be worried about losing the next Immunity Challenge. Who is he?... I think that they are talking about this exact scenerio. If Tina won immunity then Colby would have to really think hard about what to do. Could he trust Keith and Tina? He would spend alot of time on his own, thinking about this exact possibility. His conclusion would have to be that he can not trust Tina and Keith and would need to side with Liz to vote off Keith. I agree that it plays to Colby's favor to keep Keith around, but that is only is Colby is still around. If it came down to the following choices, what would you do?... 1. Vote off Liz and hope that Keith and Tina don't backstab you. If they do, you are gone and there is nothing that you can do about it, especially since it is likely that they would both be the final 2. You also know at this point that you are feared because you have won the last three immunities and two of the last three rewards. Also, the two of them versus you in the final 3 means that you have to win immunity to be final 2. or... 2. Vote along with Liz as you can trust her much more than you can Keith and Tina. Keith is gone leaving you in the final 3. You are up against the two weaker of the remaining three and are highly favored in any physical challenge. It is likely that the final challenge will be physical with some mental qualities, similar to last years. If either you or Liz win you are likely final 2. If Tina wins it could go either way. This is you best option. Conspiracy Jim 'Ya, sure we went to the moon"?!!!   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-23-01, 03:21 PM (EST) 5. "RE: One thing I am not so sure about................." You make a good point, and I can not disagree that it definitely seems in Colby's best interest to vote against Keith should Tina win immunity, simply because that would be his best chance to stick around this week. But if Colby is looking to the million(which it seems like he is, because of his vote last week), then he would have to see that he does not have a good chance to win against either Tina or Liz. I honestly think that Keith is Colby's only shot at winning the million and I think that Colby sees it this way as well. So the question is if I am Colby do I want to go for gold, and give myself the best shot at the million by voting against Liz at the risk of being voted off now, or do I shoot for second place at best by voting off Keith this week. That is a tough decision, and I know that 2nd place money is better than 4th place money by quite a bit, but I think that Colby is the type of guy to want to win this thing, not to shoot for second. From what Colby said last week, Keith is his best chance to win the million and he knows that. If he wants to win the whole thing, he may just vote against Liz, regardless of whether it is in his best interest, and I do agree it is in Colby's best interest to go with Liz against Keith. But, if Colby wants to win, he can not go against Keith, and he may not for that very reason.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-24-01, 03:15 AM (EST) 8. "RE: One thing I am not so sure about................." >>>1. Tina wins immunity, Colby votes with Liz and Keith goes. >>>2. Liz wins immunity then COlby has to vote off Keith, along >>>with Liz, Keith goes. >If Liz wins immunity, I totally agree with you that Keith >is gone. Liz voted for him last week and >there is no reason to believe that she will not >vote for him again this week, unless something strange happens. Yes, Liz voted for Keith, but she did not have the opportunity to vote for Colby. If he had not earned immunity, I believe she would have made the smarter choice and would have voted for Colby, believing that either Keith or Tina would vote for him as well because of the Immunity threat he poses. I believe that she is a smart enough player to make this choice (to vote off Colby) if given the opportunity. There is no evidence to suggest that she is a loyalty to him that would supercede the logic of choosing him over Keith. So I disagree, Keith is safe. If Tina or Liz or Keith win immunity, Colby is gone. If Colby wins immunity, Liz goes.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-24-01, 09:18 AM (EST) 11. "RE: One thing I am not so sure about................." P2S, I had many discussions on this yesterday, and I actually think that this is a possibility, though I never took into account that Liz would vote for Colby if she had the chance. And I will give you some credit that maybe she will, just because as you say, it is the smart choice. Up until I read your post I have really felt that Colby was the swing vote this week, but you have changed my mind on that somewhat. Liz's vote may be just as much the swing vote as Colby's if this holds true, and it is a definite possibility.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 04-23-01, 02:36 PM (EST) 2. "I agree that Keith has a lot to fear." IMO, Keith and Colby are the most vulnerable this week. Why? Because I think Tina will see to it that one of them is booted this week. This has been stated in so many words on other threads, but it bears repeating here. I personally think that Tina is in control of the game. She has no previous votes, and her track record at TC is flawless. This final 4 vote is the last vote in which she is guaranteed any control. This is the end-game, and you play the hand that is dealt to you to your advantage. If Tina is as shrewd as I think she is, she has to realize that having both Keith and Colby in the final 3 with her is too dangerous. If Colby wins the final IC, he will take Keith with him to final 2. Who is more likely to win the final IC: Lis or immunity-champion Colby? Of course, Tina and Keith will take each other to the final 2 if they can. But this is a game of odds. I think Tina would rather take her chances with Lis winning the final IC than Colby. Would Lis take Keith over Tina to the final 2? I tend to think not. I don't think Lis is that self-serving and greedy. Her comments at the last TC about Keith make me think she would rather take her chances against Tina than Keith. I think Lis is enough of a sportsman to realize that Tina has played the game better than Keith, and deserves a higher finish than Keith. If Colby were to win the final IC, of course he would take Tina over Lis. So I think Tina's chances of making final 2 and winning improve if she does not have BOTH Keith AND Colby with her in the final 3. I think Tina will vote for Colby first, then Keith depending on immunity. I think Lis will vote with her (I don't see Lis voting for Tina). Also, this will be the last vote where previous votes matter, and I think Tina will take advantage of it if she needs to. I hope the spoilers and speculations are right, and Lis wins this IC. In that case, Colby will be booted 3-1. A note about the final IC: I think if it's a simple endurance challenge, then I look for Tina to win. She would probably STILL be on that pole out there, if it hadn't been a life-or-death situation for the team!   Top

Goblin 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-23-01, 02:41 PM (EST) 3. "RE: It may just be Keith that must win immunity" I also believe that it would be in Tina's best interest to get rid of Keith. I think she is too loyal to him to do this, but with him gone, she'll have Colby and Liz in the final three with her. It is very likely that whichever one of them wins final immunity, they will pick Tina to go into the final, whereas if Keith were still there, Colby would pick him to go into final two. I think Liz would still pick Tina over Keith because she likes Tina better but could still win with the jury.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-23-01, 03:28 PM (EST) 6. "RE: It may just be Keith that must win immunity" I believe Keith is safe this week. And he did take his backpack to the TC last week. He isn't so sure anymore. But I think Tina and Colby will keep Keith around. If Colby loses the IC I think all 3 will vote him out. Liz will stick with Tina's vote over joining up with Colby. Tina will tell Liz that Colby is the most dangerous to win that final IC. So Colby will be gone. If Colby wins the IC then I think he will stick with Tina & Keith and vote out Liz. He knows he can't beat Liz in a final vote. But I think he could beat both Tina and Keith. So I think Colby has to win the IC this week to stick around. If he doesn't win the IC he is toast. If he does win then Liz is off to the ranch.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-23-01, 05:40 PM (EST) 7. "RE: It may just be Keith that must win immunity" The sound reasoning on this post is being closely paralleled by similar speculation about immunity on Sleeeve's Rampant Strategy Thread. I just posted my thinking along the same lines over there, so I don't think I should copy it, but I'd love it if poster's here checked out the other thread, which has excellent posts as well. Below are additional thoughts on why Keith has to win immunity. I agree Keith must win IC this week or he's gone, but I think he stays, so my guess is he does win IC. Maybe his "faux pas" has taught him to be less cocky. That makes two challeges (the other being the fire-making/water bucket fiasco), that he all but won and then threw away from overconfidence. Alternatively, Keith's comments on his mistake at last TC foreshadow the event that he loses and gets booted this week, all because he didn't win immunity last time due to carelessness and cockiness, which allowed him to accumulate more votes than Colby, thus making him the loser to the last tie vote. If this were a novel, that would be lovely irony, since Mitchell lost to Keith over one prior vote. It's not a novel, however, because I don't think even MB can assure whether Keith or Colby win IC, so MB has to work with what actually happened. If Keith is to be in every episode he has to win IC this week, and so farewell to the Colbster, because Tina's on top of things and knows it's better to run the minor risk of Lis getting IC next time (in which case the odds are she picks Tina for 2nd place) than to run the large risk of Colby winning IC next week and picking Keith (Tina 3rd place). If Colby's out, all Tina and Keith have to do to cinch the F2 is for either one of them to beat Lis at IC, which is not at all a long shot. Is there anyone who would be considering Lis as a big immunity threat were it not for the Jeff Probst spoiler, which is ambiguous at best? The only reason she came in 2nd on the slingshot IC was that Colby took out his own teammates first and left a weaker competitor til the end, proving again how smart he is tactically. Personally, I think Lis kicks butt by staying alive against all odds, in spite of never having won immunity, and she's made the F4 per Boston Herald. I would love to see her win one, and she may, but she's done enough to fulfill the spoilers right now. I think she squeaks through one more time due to Keith and Colby being alternate targets--whichever loses immunity. Some TC's call for targeting the weak and defenseless, others for ousting the strong and threatening. It's been more or less alternating, so, because this is the last potential tiebreaker, I'm betting that it's time for a strong player to bite the dust.   Top

Ptaz 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-25-01, 04:03 PM (EST) 12. "RE: It may just be Keith that must win immunity" This week's TC is for control of the final IC. Tina will do everything within her power this week to make sure there isn't a chance that Colby could win that final IC. I really think she's more comfortable having Liz and Keith with her in F3 than a loose cannon like Colby. I think the lady is a control freak by this point in the game and if she has to bend the truth to Liz to get her to vote Colby, she will.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-24-01, 03:30 AM (EST) 9. "RE: It may just be Keith that must win immunity" Loree, once again I see eye to eye with you. Keith is safe, because he is desirable for Final 2 and all the players (including Keith) are aware of this. So yes, Colby goes unless he wins immunity. In fact, if anything odd were to happen, I think there is a greater likelihood it would effect Tina than Keith. However...... Colby and Liz both know Tina and Keith are not seen favorably by the jury. Both C and L want to win the final immunity to face either T or K in finals. For that reason, they will be each others target this week. T and K will axe C before L, therefore he must win immunity to stay. Of course, maybe MB will decide he's run out of ways to fix a Colby victory, cancel the challenge, and just let Colby keep the damn necklace.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-24-01, 06:22 AM (EST) 10. "RE: It may just be Keith that must win immunity" I think there's no question that either Keith or Colby has to go this week. If Colby wins IC this week, Keith is the only real IC threat to Colby in the final IC next week. Voting off Liz now would be a mistake for Colby because Keith is most likely of the other three to be able to beat Colby in an IC -- and Keith would pick Tina to go to the final 2 with. So... Colby is better off taking his chances at winning the final IC against the two lasses, and even if Tina wins it, she would pick Colby over Liz to win the million. If any of the other three win IC this week, it goes without saying they're better off booting the strongest -- the ladies would choose Keith to go up against in the final two and Keith would just be happy to be rid of his food critic. "I tell ya... something stinks here"   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-01, 00:30 AM (EST) 13. "Themessenger spoiler" What do people think of this publishing spoiler? Hoax? If so, what would be the point if Keith goes one day later?   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-26-01, 00:36 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Themessenger spoiler" LAST EDITED ON 04-26-01 AT 00:38 AM (EST) No way to check it... anyone could have registered that website address... We have to take themessenger's word for it, and I am more prone to kill the messenger... pun intended. EDIT: I should be more specific... I did check to see who registered the domain, but it's registered under a fake name... the only thing that is not and obvious fake is the state, Michigan... but there's no proof that the person that registered it is actually from Michigan.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-01, 01:00 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Themessenger spoiler" Wow, thanks Sleeeve. That was so fast, and impressive! I guess I forgot to distinguish between hoax and red herring. If it was a plant by MB, it's value would be very short-lived--about a day. I think if Keith doesn't go tomorrow he makes Final 2, and I see the same from lots of other posters. I suppose an unaffiliated hoaxster would be more likely to expend the effort for whatever payoff was available. I didn't reply to the original post so as not to give the thing steam.   Top

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