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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-08-01, 10:50 AM (EST) "ep11 What Does It All Mean?" This looks to be the hardest week yet... compelling arguments can be made for just about everyone left (except Tina). There are lots of hints a few spoilers and a lot of questions... so what does it all mean? I will discount Tina for several reasons including the phone home (doesn't appear to be this week... until it happens... she ain't going anywhere), and the insulation she enjoys in the various sub-groups. But the remaining contestant... well let's look at them a little more closely. Amber- Now that it's 4-2 Ogre she's vulnerable. K/T/C has been known to turn on it's own once their usefulness has been outlived. She's not intimately allied with K/T/C... although there was the hand holding and hugs from Colby... hum... perhaps intimate was not the correct word. She could switch sides fairly easily and go with the depleted kucha... she could try to play both sides by whittling down each side (ie Ogre this week). She may go down 5-1 if she wins RC and is not there to help move the camp (she and Colby are not in the clips... and teaser mentions one person not being there to help). This is looking like a definite make or break week for her... if she plays smart (and we have no reason to think she will) she's a lock for the final 4 and probably a lot better. If not she could be seen as a threat and be removed this week. What supports her going? outsider to both alliances, threat to Ogrethree, healthier than the kucha (IC threat), possible RC winner (ie noncamp moving helper), featured pretty heavily in ep10 (after cruising below the radar before... Nick anyone?), hasn't shown herself to be capable of taking advantage of her situation What supports her staying? html final w/ Lis, aboriginal pics (if you see her), still don't know her real well, seems to be in a good strategic place Rodger- In a perfectly logical world he would be the Ogrefour's last kucha pickoff. He remains useful to the camp (fishing), has a easy going laid-back personality, and isn't likely to win any IC's from here on out. That being said with 6 remaining contestants people start needing to position themselves for a final 2 match up... and NO ONE left would want to gamble $1,000,000 on beating him there (including Lis who is the only one to actually have a chance). Lis would be the first target... but if she wins IC... then Rodger is up next. What supports him going? He’s a kucha (and a final 2 threat), appears to be accepting ultimate fate... and hoping for the best, becomes one of Jerri's and Mad Dog's friends, Amber vote appears to have be a mistake. Lack of the word "shock", "surprise" or any other overly dramatic adjective in the teasers (implicitly meaning ogre's stick together) What supports him staying? Less of a threat than Lis. He could be in some GGA alliance as some have speculated. Amber could feel it's in her best interest to switch sides or whittle down the numbers (ie keeping him safe this week). Lis- Should be the selection for this week. She's dangerous to the remaining survivors in both IC and and final 2 match ups. Escaped two weeks ago by the silliness of her enemies, and so far she has been unable to capitalize on their strategic error. In what should have been a full court press on winning over Amber (or any other Ogre)... she instead tries to vote her off. Now there may be some method to her madness (GGA?)... but from my point of view it was at best wishful thinking, and at worst a million dollar blunder! What supports her going? Logic. Lack of the word "shock", "surprise" or any other overly dramatic adjective in the teasers (implicitly meaning ogre's stick together) What supports her staying? More spoilers than I care to list, potential GGA, Amber scheming Colby- From here on out he's a IC threat to his own teammates, and look for them to correct this if/when they can. Also note that his prior vote total is higher than anyone else’s, so if there is an insurrection of some type he's vulnerable. This week doesn't look like the perfect week from an Ogre standpoint (that Amber thing), but a perfect match for a GGA, and at least an alternate match for any Amber scheming. Also, he may not be available to help with the emergency camp evac if he wins RC (of course he could be the one heroically swimming the rising river to save the rice while everyone else watches... and Amber is RC-ing). What supports him going? Nick friendship (Vegas spoiler), Amber scheming, GGA, general threat, potential RC fallout. What supports him staying? Potential rock climbing photo from the Field Guide. Part of the Ogrethree. Closer to Amber than Keith is (so if Amber does scheme she might be more inclined to take out Keith 1st). Most importantly he's listed as winner in my PTTE Keith- If he wasn't an idiot he would have won the IC this past week too (meaning 3 of 4) as it is he still has won more IC's than anyone and is likely to be in contention for them from here on out. His arrogant and obnoxious side is starting to be exposed somewhat (it was overshadowed by Jerri for a long, long time). He's not winning any friends on the jury and at this point doesn't appear to be doing anything to reduce the stress Amber may be having (Tina patting her back, Colby taking her for a moonlight se... ooops that was Jerri... or was it?...), which needs to be done at for least one more week! Eventually this will come back to haunt him even if he were to make the finals (you need 4 jury votes, and with the existing jury he already has 3 votes against him no matter who he's going against... don't expect any votes from Amber or Colby especially if they feel his knife... and I can safely say at this point KEITH DOES NOT WIN!!!) What supports him going? Amber's dislike, Ogre revolt, Amber scheming, general threat, fundraiser timing What supports him staying? Part of the Ogrethree. Potential member of GGA (although if he is it's misnamed... maybe the Girls & Geezers Alliance). Aboriginal photos if you see him. Any comments?   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Colby and Keith Plot against Amber:... Krautboy 04-08-01 1    RE: Colby and Keith Plot against Am... idiotcowboy 04-08-01 5    RE: Colby and Keith Plot against Am... HomeBrewer 04-10-01 16  RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean? GG 04-08-01 2    RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean? Kokoro 04-08-01 3        RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean? Loree 04-08-01 4            RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean? idiotcowboy 04-08-01 6                RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean? MadforMadDog 04-09-01 7                    RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean? AyatollahKhomeini 04-09-01 8                        RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean? idiotcowboy 04-09-01 13  Who Would Want Them Gone? ElmersGlue 04-09-01 9    RE: Who Would Want Them Gone? Loree 04-09-01 10        RE: Who Would Want Them Gone? LIZZLOVER 04-09-01 11            RE: Who Would Want Them Gone? Loree 04-09-01 12                RE: Who Would Want Them Gone? sleeeve 04-10-01 14                    RE: Who Would Want Them Gone? Loree 04-10-01 15

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 04-08-01, 02:49 PM (EST) 1. "Colby and Keith Plot against Amber: "drastically primal"" IC, darn good question! I've been asking myself the same question ever since the last episode... Remember the scene, just before TC, when Colby and Keith were sitting on the beach, looking around, carefulnot to be overheard? The voice over in that scene is Colby discussing why Amber is feeling threatened and it cuts to Colby saying to Keith, ..."that way Amber won't know anything." Keith replies. "Smart move." What does it all mean? I kept looking for the end result of that conversation to materialize at TC or somewhere else and I don't think it has yet! What is it that Colby and Keith didn't want Amber to know? They all voted the same, so they weren't talking about voting for Nick... Was MB just using this converstion to create suspense for last Episode when it was really relating to what Colby and Keith are planning for this coming TC? Was the conversation really something like..."After Nick is gone we'll tell Amber that Rodger or Liz is our target, when it's really going to be her...THAT WAY AMBER WON'T KNOW ANYTHING...when we vote her off at tribal council." To which Keith says, "Smart move". At the start of last Episode we say Keith talking to the camera, descibing Ambers predicament in a very unsimpathetic way. "she's a big girl, she made that decision (to align with Jerri) early on...that's where she sits now,...there's nothing that can be done about it." It sounded to me like Keith has written Amber off. The other question that we must ask ourselves is whether or not Amber suspects that Keith and Colby (and Tina?) are targeting her? If she suspects it then perhaps she will make the move to Liz and Rodger. Remember the preview of Liz saying "Over the last three days the game has become drastically primal". "OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS" means these comments are just before TC. She's also talking about the "GAME", not the living conditions. I would propose that Keith and Colby have a plan to get rid of Amber, Amber suspects it and approaches Liz and Rodger (even though they voted against her, and Liz recognizing that Amber is in a KILL OR BE KILLED SITUATION, says the game has become "drastically primal"   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-08-01, 10:30 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Colby and Keith Plot against Amber: "drastically primal"" Krautboy- Good points and nice observation... I've never been much of a GGA person, but I would never discount Amber wising up and alligning herself with the former kucha. After all, there had to be something to her personality, make-up, general disposition that caused her to be selected for the game in the first place... we may not have gotten to see it yet, and if we don't soon (like this week) I expect her to go the way of Nick (Amber who? we hardly knew ya). Also, we know how MB likes to play mind games... could the K/C discussion shown been part of this weeks (ep11) or the previous weeks (ep9)... I still have the last two episodes on tape so I'll try and review to check conclusively. Lastly, although I would argue against any Ogre double-crosses for this week (next week is much better)... I wouldn't be shocked if it happened... assuming that they have any down time to plan them that is -ICB   Top

HomeBrewer 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-10-01, 01:30 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Colby and Keith Plot against Amber: "drastically primal"" Another item to consider is the rift that is currently between Jerri and Amber, if there is one. Amber has disappeared since the taping of the show. Why has she not been Jerri's sidekick since bootage? That friendship seems to have disappeared. I see Amber making it far. Just more thoughts....   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-08-01, 03:43 PM (EST) 2. "RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean?" Good analysis. Just a few extra thoughts: Amber- I think Amber is a good bet for the final four. The overriding consideration for me is that whatever allainces exist and/or may develop (GGA the obvious exception), most would be happy enough to take her with them. For example Keith, Colby and Tina playing for an all Ogakor final four. Or Liz/Rodger who presumambly would view Colby/Tina as a bigger threat. There's also the consideration of how Amber aligns herself in the next episode. I think she'll figure out in enough time that Rodger and Liz in a final four would, potentially, be lesser of a threat than any of Keith, Clby or Tina. Colby- His reaction to winning last week's IC was very OTT. Either it was gloating or, more likely, the outpouring of relief. By voting off Jerri he knew that he was the next logical threat. Kucha having done so once after the merge would probably have voted for him again and one of the other Ogies breaking rank would have seen him gone. Winning immunity has only put him even more into the firing line. I suspect he needs to get Amber on his side to survive beyond the next couple of episodes. Keith- That he failed to take his backpack with him to TC, and prompting Nick to cast his vote accordingly, gives others a convenient excuse now. Also I think his imposing in regards to Jerri might be cause for Tina/Colby to question his willingness to tow the party line. Also, I detect a slight rift developing between Keith and Colby. His dig at Colby about being unable to catch grasshoppers came across to me as subtle criticism born out of arrogance but jealousy as well. He's not hogging the limelight as Colby seems to be in the tribe. It bothers him. And the fact he despised Jerri so much can now be chalked down to an inevitable clash of two very big egos. That's why he didn't win IC - not because he was an idiot but because he was smug and over-confident. IMHO, he's taken over the Jerri mantle and it won't take too long for the others in the tribe to figure it out. Tina- She's the safest of the lot, no question. Also I'm coming around to the view that her alliances thus far have only been out of self-serving covenience. She has though played the game very smartly. If she maintains that, I would make a case for her ditching Keith and Colby in favor of Rodger and Liz. Why? In a final four, it really is every man for himself. And having Colby/Keith over the two Kuchas doesn't make sense. Indeed, if she fails to win IC from that stage onwards, she would be the one you wouldn't want to take into the final two. So why not go with those who in theory at least give her a better shot at wnning IC? Whether it's physical or mental doesn't matter - both Keith and Colby have shown their capability in winning ICs. Rodger and Liz have not.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 04-08-01, 04:15 PM (EST) 3. "RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean?" <<Either it was gloating or, more likely, the outpouring of relief. By voting off Jerri he knew that he was the next logical threat>> I believe this speculation of Colby being all relieved at winning the IC is completely overblown....I mean, c'mon, if you were there and won a challenge even though you were completely wiped out ~and~ started last, wouldn't you feel proud of yourself? Sure, if you're on top and not really a target, it is better strategically to throw an IC, buuuut these people are not the masters of all strategy just because they managed to make it on Survivor or even to get this far into the game. Colby is very self assured and I don't doubt for a second that he totally thinks he's still on top of everything - the leader of the alliance - and can use Amber against K/T. Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-08-01, 09:58 PM (EST) 4. "RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean?" We have seen that Colby is a very competitive person. So just winning makes him feel good. I believe he still remembers Nick beating him for the IC last time and it stings his ego. Plus no matter how confident any of them feel they know they can't always believe what they are told by the others. Colby knows he was lying to Jerri and Amber. Keith and Tina could be lying to him. He just doesn't know for sure who anyone is voting for.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-08-01, 10:41 PM (EST) 6. "RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean?" I totally agree. Colby is competitive and both he and Keith have to know from here on out they are potential double-cross targets even within their own tribe. This may cause them to turn on each other soon, or possibly cause them to bond closer because of it... it's real hard to tell. Keith appears to be in a slightly stronger position regarding this (T/R/L), but I can't see a way he wins the money right now. In my mind Colby's chances are hinged upon Amber... he needs her to be with him from here on out... but I don't know whether he realizes this or not.   Top

MadforMadDog 48 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-09-01, 04:33 PM (EST) 7. "RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean?" I agree. It does not look like Colby has one person that will alwyas be loyal to him. He needs to work on Amber. When the Kuchas are gone I would go after Colby first.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 04-09-01, 05:37 PM (EST) 8. "RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean?" Why does that make it sound like K/T should take out Amber before she becomes the "one person" loyal to Colby?   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-09-01, 11:04 PM (EST) 13. "RE: ep11 What Does It All Mean?" True.. how true. Of course now I look at it... it might not be quite as bad of a plan as I was originally thinking. If Amber were to go down this week... and there is no GGA (which never made much sense to me... I mean who in their half-starved mind would want to go into the final two against either Lis or Rodger?)... T/K would have to keep Colby around until the final 4... and probably longer given IC wins and worse opponents to face (ie Lis... you could gamble on Rodger not winning the final IC... but Lis, no way!). Two IC win's away from a million... and possibly only one... not such a bad plan afterall... although their might be a better one... My original thought was that if Colby could convince Amber to be his permanent buddy... they could take out Keith this week and be in the driver seat the rest of the way in... I admit it doesn't look much like that happening though... so much for my PTTE -ICB   Top

ElmersGlue 57 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-09-01, 05:38 PM (EST) 9. "Who Would Want Them Gone?" MB gave an interview this week where he said the game from this point on breaks down to everybody thinking about who they want on the jury and who'd they like to face in the final two - so here is my Who Would Want Them Gone analysis.... Amber - Rodger and Liz most likely voted for her last time almost by a coin toss. Maybe they thought C/T/K would vote for her after Jerri. Maybe they were sending a message to her that she could either join them or they would vote against her. K/T/C probably each as individuals want Amber on the jury because she would have Jerri's vote for the million if they faced her in the Final 2. Tina - Nobody really wants her gone. Amber might think that she is somehow behind the Jerri ouster and is looking for revenge......but probably not. Keith probably needs her in the Final 2 because she has backstabbed as much as he has. Keith - Now that Jerri is gone he is the next best candidate to take into the Final 2. Several bootees have discussed his "thorny" and "bossy" attitude. Everybody knows that Jerri would vote for a rock over him. Nick changed his vote to vote for Keith at his last TC. Colby - Amber **should** know that he's betrayed her alliance twice and that he will betray her - but who can tell with Amber???? Keith and Tina know that he is a huge IC threat and that he will turn on them in a heartbeat if he thinks it will get him the million. Everybody should be smart enough to figure out that Colby has to go -- and at the first opportunity because there might not be a second one.... Liz - She's too nice and sweet to take into the Final 2. It's dangerous to let her anywhere near the Final 2. Everybody except Rodger needs her out of there -- She's in big trouble if she doesn't win a couple of immunities (which is rumored). Rodger - Too nice to take into the Final 2, but what about the Final 3? He's not likely to win an immunity. It pretty much guarantees the other two people the Final 2. This is a trick the Richard Hatch taught the world in SI with Rudy - so everybody should be aware of it. Right now it looks to me as if Amber, Liz, and Colby are headed for the jury in some type of order. So - what if Liz were to start the "challenge butt kicking" this week (Ever notice how people seem to win *just* when it gets dangerous for them?? Greg, Gervase, Kelly, Keith, Nick....) I'm guessing that Tina and Keith will be smart enough to save Rodger. Right now - My vote will be for Colby to be gone this week - but that's always subject to change!   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-09-01, 06:59 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Who Would Want Them Gone?" Ummmm.... Liz doesn't kick butt in the challenges. That was a phrase that got mis-worded. Jeff P just said she kicked butt on the show. He never said in challenges.   Top

LIZZLOVER 235 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-09-01, 07:11 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Who Would Want Them Gone?" Please point us to the atricle or appearance that JP actually made those exact remarks. It has been stated that "she kicked butt in the challenges" for quite some time around here, and no one has stepped up and said it was never said like that. (at least to my knowledge) I would just like to read or see it for myself, so I can have my own opinion what was really said....Thanks! Lizz Just Is   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-09-01, 10:42 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Who Would Want Them Gone?" Sorry I don't know exactly which post it was mentioned on(it is in a few of them that the original phrase was mis-worded). But the person who originally brought this phrase to the board said he was the one who said it was "most likely in the challenges that she kicked butt". Jeff P just said Liz kicks butt. If anyone knows which post mentions this put in a link. If I come across it I will too. There are too many posts to go searching for it now.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-10-01, 02:29 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Who Would Want Them Gone?" I don't feel like taking the time to find the original post, but owen's clarification of his original post is here, and includes the original quote and some brief analysis: http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1174.shtml#3   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-10-01, 12:11 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Who Would Want Them Gone?" Thanks Sleeeve for finding that quote. I didn't remember which post it was on.   Top

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