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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-15-01, 04:44 PM (EST) "I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" OK, so sticking to our guns this past week we finally won another one and broke our losing streak (I think week two was our last 100% correct week, damn!!!). Anyway, I can not tell you how many times during the show last night I actually stated "yeah right, that will happen" at the TV. In other words, as normal, Mark Burnett has turned up the BSameter. So as not to F up our one week winning streak we need to be very careful and use our brains and not our eyes. A wise man once said... "Believe nothing of what you hear AND ONLY HALF of what you see!!!". This is what we need to do from this point on... We know the following using logic, our brains and last season as a reference... 1. Colby is smart!!! 2. Mark Burnett usually makes us believe something that is not true. 3. The person that Mark Burnett makes us hate WILL make it to the finals, if not win the whole damn thing as Rich did last time. 4. The person in Season II that MB is making America hate is Jerri. I would imagine that more than 80% of the women out there watching last night were pissed in that Jerri won the reward. Why? Because it makes for great TV to have an antagonist and that would be her!!! She ain't goin no where. 5. Some times the castaways lie to us, the viewers, to make for better editing. Whether this is done at the request of the photographers or on their own accord is anyones guess but we know for sure that more than one member of Season I lied to the cameras and for no other purpose than to play with OUR minds. Some may now be thinking, "No, they wouldn't do that, that would be wrong" or "They can't do that because it would effect the outcome". Well it doesn't effect the outcome and we know that they do do that. 6. Ogakor, if they stay unified, are guaranteed the final 5. 7. There are two distinct teams in Ogakor... - Jerri/Amber - Kieth/Tina with Colby as the sway vote. We know that Colby has sided with both of these two teams in the past. At the beginning of the season he was with Jerri's kids. He "changed" sides on the way to the week 4 Tribal Council when he couldn't convince Jerri to go after someone other than Kieth. Knowing the tie-breaker ruling (this shows that he is smart) he sided with Kieth/Tina to change the game and ultimately put himself into an almost guaranteed final 4 position. OK, let me explain this. Of course he didn't know that Michael was going to get burned and that they would end up merging 5-5 but he knew, and was unable to convince Jerri, that to have a chance at making it into the finals at 5-5 Ogakor was going to need Kieth. By getting rid of Mitchell he took the 3-2 majority away from Jerri and made his tribe a 2-2 with himself as the one both teams would need to vie for affection. This was the smartest move that I have seen in both the Season I and Season II Survivors and as such he will probably WIN the Mill. OK, I am getting ahead of myself. 8. Colby is playing both sides of the coin against themselves with himself in the best spot. He knows that Kieth would never defect over with Jerri and visa versa. He also knows that Amber/Jerri need each other and that Kieth and Tina need each other, so neither would screw over their corresponding "mate". That means that since he has convinced Kieth/Tina that the 3 of them are going to be the final 3 and that he has convinced Jerri/Amber the same, that neither of these two inner teams have any reason to go into the light (swap over to Kucha). 9. At this point anyone that would be in the final 2 with Jerri auto wins. 10. Colby is smart. Anyway, the above are for the most part givens while others are very logical assumptions. The MAJOR point that I am making is that more often than not what MB shows us is not what happens. Why give away the ending to the show, instead make some believe what could happen so as to keep them interested until they see what they thought to begin with was what happened. In other words, since we all KNOW that Ogakor should stay unified and just pick Kucha off that MB will start to make us believe that one of the mini-alliances might defect and thus keep the game interesting. Let me go through the possible scenerios that make sense. 1. Ogakor stays totally unified, knowing that they are guaranteed final 5. Since there are two distinct groups that believe that Colby will pick them to be in the final 3, then they have almost no reason to defect. In other words Colby won't defect because he is guaranteed final 3, and possibly more since he would be the strongest physically and mentally (ok, Tina and Kieth may be mentally superior than Colby, wait a sec... no they are not. Colby is the smartest one and IS in the best position). If you were guaranteed final 3 would you defect? NO!!! - Colby WILL NOT defect!!! Kieth and Tina are likely convinced that Colby will side with them getting them into the final 3, once Kucha is gone and then after getting rid of Jerri and Amber. In Kieth's and Tina's minds they are probably ecstatic about "knowing" that they are guaranteed final 3, after believing that they were goners. Once again, if you were Kieth and/or Tina and you believed that in sticking with Ogakor that you were guaranteed final 3, would you defect? NO!!!! - Kieth and Tina WILL NOT defect, unless they are given a reason not to believe Colby. Again, Colby IS smart!!! In fact, Colby has made Kieth/Tina believe the same thing that he has made Jerri/Amber, that he will side with them and will also make the other two believe that he will be siding with them. In other words, win/win for Colby. - Jerri and Amber WILL NOT defect, unless THEY are given a reason not to believe Colby. Again, Colby IS smart!!! Once again, why defect when you believe that you are guaranteed final 3? If the above has not convinced you then think of it this way... The fake final 2 assumption that has been planted on the CBS website indicated Amber and Liz. There is only one logical scenerio where this could hold true and that would be for Jerri and Amber to defect after getting Kucha down to two members. At that point they could get rid of Ogakor one at a time until you are left with a final 4 of Jerri, Amber, Liz and lets say Roger. At this point Roger and Liz would just pick off, barring Immunity, Jerri since she has more previous votes than anyone else. That would mean that Amber would have to win Immunity and decide to get rid of Roger instead of Liz. Anyway, this will all be null and voided in three weeks. Next week is a BS week so won't count. In two weeks, against what many on this board are starting to believe, it makes NO sense for any one of the Ogakorians to vote off one of their own. Lets go through the whys that this will not happen. 1. If in three days from last night in Oz Kieth and Tina decided for some stupid reason to side with the 3 Kucharians and get rid of Jerri, Colby and then Amber (or a combination there of) then the final 5 is Kieth, Tina, Roger, Nick and Liz (3 Kuchas against 2 Ogakors). This would be BAD for Kieth/Tina and they should be smart enough to know this. - Kieth and Tina will NOT defect in two weeks. 2. If in three days from last night in Oz Jerri and Amber decided for some stupid reason to side with the 3 Kucharians and get rid of Kieth, Colby and then Tina (or a combination there of) then the final 5 is Jerri, Amber, Roger, Nick and Liz (3 Kucha against 2 Ogakors). This again would be bad for Jerri/Amber and they should be smart enough to know this. - Jerri and Amber will NOT defect in two weeks. In summary I feel that I have given everyone here enough reason to believe that Ogakor WILL be the final 5 (barring that a Kucha wins the final immunity). It is perceived by each of them to be in their best interest. At a very minimum everyone should agree that their is NO LOGICAL reason for any one of the Ogakorians to Benedict their original tribe, AT THIS TIME. It is possible that something will happen within the next two weeks, but we'll see. Now once this proves out in two weeks and then we see that the following week one more Kucha goes, I will start to explain why Jerri makes final 2. My strong current belief is as such... 7. Nick (or Roger, Liz) 6. Roger (or Liz) 5. Liz (or Kieth, Tina) 4. Tina (or Liz, Kieth) 3. Kieth (or Amber) 2. Jerri 1. Colby is your winner and as I predicted due to nothing more than the Survivor Field Guide book cover, prior to the airing of the show, wins the million bucks. Conspiracy Jim   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE T... my0wn 03-15-01 1    RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE T... cowboyroo 03-16-01 11    RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE T... Loree 03-16-01 15  The Jerri's RADAR Theory IceCat 03-15-01 2    Jerri and Tina AyatollahKhomeini 03-15-01 6  Book cover AyatollahKhomeini 03-15-01 3    RE: Book cover Kokoro 03-15-01 8        Well, actually... AyatollahKhomeini 03-15-01 9            RE: Well, actually... Kokoro 03-16-01 12            RE: Well, just to play devil's adv... Dalton 03-16-01 13                RE: Well, just to play devil's adv... jkkeller 03-16-01 14                    RE: Well, just to play devil's adv... lambity 03-16-01 16                        RE: Well, just to play devil's adv... Kokoro 03-17-01 18  RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE T... jkkeller 03-15-01 4    Episode 11 is Key... IceCat 03-15-01 5  RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE T... SurvivorBlows 03-15-01 7  RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE T... IslandFever 03-15-01 10  RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE T... StratPlayer 03-16-01 17

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my0wn 40 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-15-01, 06:18 PM (EST) 1. "RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" I agree 100% the only thing that troubles me is who Colby is going to take to the final 3 with him. Logic says Jerri and Amber, but his comment last night about lying to jerri makes me wonder. Maybe that whole speech was from when he lied to her about voting Keith and went with Mitchell. I wish I had the tape of that episode so I could go back and see it, and compare it with last nights. I know some are saying that Kelly thought her chances were better up against Rich, but I think there are worlds of differences between Rich and Jerri. So I think anyone against Jerri would come out 1st. As much has I hate the idea of her getting even that much $ I just don't see it any other way.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-16-01, 00:05 AM (EST) 11. "RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" CJ- That is VERY well thought out. However, other scenarios may be likely. It appears as though Keith and Tina are more aimed at making sure the bad don't win, so a defect in that scenario is possible. If Liz, Rodger and Amber are the Final 3, the perfect foreshadowing from Liz's "I'll never write that man's name on a piece of paper" would be to get rid of him, since she feels a more likely chance of winning against Amber. However, if that scenario did occur, there would be more Ogies on the jury than Kuchas, and Amber could be the surprising victor. We don't see Amber getting bashed by the Ogies, just Jerri. I personally see the plan for the next episode to boot Nick, but the problem I have with that is 8 episodes into the show, and still no story line, which leads me to believe he wins immunity next episode, leaving T/K the dilemna of ousting Rodger or Elisabeth who they've bonded with or Jerri who they despise. I didn't really think there was an alternative until Alicia and Jerri being so close. She obviously didn't like her to this point in the game, and said she didn't have the opportunity to get her alone for her to defect, so how did they get so close to go on a five day trip together unless they got to spend time together, and being the first two jury members, I'm sure they'd have a lot of one on one time to bond.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-16-01, 01:04 PM (EST) 15. "RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" I would love to know if that was Colby talking at that specific time too. Was his beard the same length as it was at this week's TC when he told the camera he was lying to Jerri and staying with Keith and Tina? I really don't trust the editing in this show. We are fooled by thinking they are saying what they are saying on that day. When really they said it a week ago.   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-15-01, 07:30 PM (EST) 2. "The Jerri's RADAR Theory" The Jerri RADAR Theory or: How a Kucha Makes to the Final 5 The purpose of this theory is not to predict the next Kuchas to go but to predict WHY they are chosen... and what happens once the Kuchas are down to one. Believe it or not, it is my assertion that Jerri will have the greatest say as to who gets voted out in EP9 and EP10... The reason for this is that Colby will want to keep Jerri's suspicions low for two more votes... and then pounce on her - figuratively of course in EP11! Here is my reasoning: We have a situation with the dominant tribe having two two-person sub-alliances. Colby is in the middle courting favour with both alliances and having significant influence in both. In order for Colby to maintain this advantageous situation for himself he must allow both sides to think he continues to be aligned with them. The Tina/Keith alliance do seem to be very confident in their alliance with Colby and it would appear to be the alliance that Colby as engendered the most trust. The Jerri/Amber alliance appears to have the greatest trepidation about Colby's intentions and Colby is aware of this after Jerri's chat in the dark. Colby must keep Jerri convinced that all is going according to plan so that she will continue the Pagonging of the Kuchas. Jerri must be convinced that all is going her way until there is a mathematical certainty that Jerri/Amber have a no chance to ally themselves with a kucha survivor. I believe that the best way for Colby to do this is to convince Keith and Tina to actually let Jerri take the leading role in who to vote off next (with an appropriate amount of grousing from Keith to prevent suspicions from being aroused). If Colby can convince Keith and Tina to do this, we can expect Jerri's motives to direct the the next two boot selections. From last episode I'm thinking Jerri would go for a 'perceived threat' selection process and take the following progression Liz, Nick, Roger. If Colby cannot control Keith and Tina and they begin to assert more control in the voting process, Tina's new interpersonal contacts would suggest a Nick, Roger, Liz progression in the boot order. In terms of the two sub-alliances sitting down and hammering out a deal on who to boot next I would say a joint concensus boot order would see Nick go first. Colby will have his hands full when it comes to negotiating the choice between Roger and Liz, however. Jerri will become very suspicious if Tina pushes too hard to send Roger before Liz as Liz is definitely the greater immunity threat. Honestly, it seems unlikely that Tina would risk raising suspicions at this point and would vote for Liz. The one motive that would make Tina stick to her guns would be the sheer joy of keeping Liz past Jerri. This is a motive that can't be over-looked... Tina has had some serious, quality Jerri-hate time. It also makes for a really nice little morality tale for MB to weave into the narrative - Jerri is punished for biting the hand (Liz's) that cooked for her (the rice cooking thing). Once the Kuchas are down to their last member (especially if that last member is Liz), the Colby/Keith/Tina will have the first numerical certainty to take out Jerri without fear of reprisal from Amber. Keith, Tina, and Colby have all overtly shown utter hatred towards Jerri on numerous occasions. EP11 TC is the first chance to get rid of her and Keith, Colby and Tina will all jump at the chance to remove her. Now... in terms of who Colby would prefer to take to final vote. Jerri OR Amber will do rather nicely. Going into the final three with both Jerri AND Amber would be extremely risky. Colby would absolutely require immunity at this point as he neither Jerri nor Amber would want to go to final vote against the charismatic Colbster. It is definitely in Colby's interest to get rid of one of them. Amber's lack of prior votes make for an attractive final four alliance for Colby as well. If he takes the desperate Amber into an alliance against an unsuspecting Tina/Keith. The resulting Amber vs Keith tie-breaker would leave Keith outed in fourth place and a Colby/Amber alliance vs Tina. I am not saying that this particular scenario is the one that will happen... I'm using it to illustrate why it is in Colby's interest to eliminate Jerri and retain Amber. To sum up IceCat's Jerri RADAR theory: In order to prevent Jerri's RADAR from going off, Tina/Keith/Colby let Jerri have a great deal of influence on the voting choice for EP9 and EP10... this will likely be played down during the episodes but will be evident in the voting choices at each TC. Although MB will continue to place the 'Jerri-is-gonna-get-it-this-time' narrative strongly in the foreground for EP9 and EP10, there will be a Kucha followed by a Kucha for each boot in EP9 and EP10. At this point, MB will have pretty much set everyone up for a boring Ogakor final 5. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth will fill the boards about how 'this is just the same as Survivor I'. EP11 will have the 'shocker' ending, however, that Jerri is booted ahead of the final Kucha. Final 5 = Colby/Keith/Tina/Amber and a Kucha (I'm thinking Liz just cuz Keith and Tina would just love to rub Jerri's face in it!)   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-15-01, 07:45 PM (EST) 6. "Jerri and Tina" LAST EDITED ON 03-15-01 AT 08:16 PM (EST) >The reason for this is that Colby will want to keep Jerri's >suspicions low for two more votes... and then pounce on her - >figuratively of course in EP11! All the tabloid reports seem to indicate that lots of men have pounced on Jerri in a "non-figurative" manner! Seriously, it's hard to believe that Tina will vote based on her "interpersonal contacts." We don't call her Benedict Tina for nothing. But you may be right. See my post in shakes' thread on the Alicia shopping spoiler for a possible method in which this happens. Edited because what I wrote at first was so much BS   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-15-01, 07:38 PM (EST) 3. "Book cover" First, CJ, I appreciate your dogged pursuit of the truth from what you believed were MB's hints to us. Without that, I would have continued to believe the initial blow-off of the opening credits pictures on ss.com and here. Now, thanks to your pursuit of them, I realize that they were intended as a real clue pointing to our final two (Keith and Amber) and our winner (Keith). No wonder Keith is trying to scout out new locations in Royal Oak to reopen the most famous restaurant that he was involved with, and no wonder he proposed to his girlfriend in Las Vegas last week. So ... why do you think Colby wins instead of Keith? Didn't Keith strike a pose like the one on the cover when he won the pole-standing challenge? One mistake that was made in S1 was made by the trio of Rich-Rudy-Sue. They anticipated that they would be the final three, and they planned for it, but they couldn't beat Kelly in the immunity challenge at the start of E13. As a result, one of them -- the one with the weakest ties to the other two (Sue) -- got booted. Here, I believe Colby when he says that he wants a final three of himself-Keith-Tina. I would be surprised if he double-crossed Keith, or if Keith double-croseed him. Keith would be gone if Colby hadn't stuck up for him, and I'm sure Keith hasn't forgotten it. But the same principle holds if Colby chooses to advance with Jerri and Amber. The problem come along when someone else (I say Amber) wins the IC in E13, just as Kelly did. Now one of the threesome has to go. Colby is not as close to either Keith or Tina as they are to each other. Colby is not as close to either Jerri or Amber as they are to each other. So, when they can't all make the final three, these twosomes will vote Colby off. If Colby ends up tied with anyone but Jerri, he's gone on the tiebreak. So, unless Colby gets his "dream" final three (whichever dream that is), HE FINISHES FOURTH. Even if Colby survives that challenge, he MUST win the immunity in E14 to stay around. In his dream final threes, HE GETS BOOTED if he isn't immune for the exact same reason -- he isn't as tight with Tina and Keith or with Jerri and Amber as they are with each other. Colby has played the game great in terms of ensuring an Ogakor winner. BUT he overlooked something that Dicque did: Dicque had a close ally who was completely loyal (Rudy). It saved him. Colby does not. Sorry, Colbster, no pot of gold for you. Our hard evidence is that Keith and Amber are the final two, and the book cover seems to indicate a male champion (Keith). I'm willing to accept that it isn't conclusive. But, on this evidence, I don't see Colby as the ultimate survivor.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-15-01, 09:56 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Book cover" I'm not sure if it's the book cover person that's the winner....check this out: http://www.designinmotion.com/article/mainv/0,7220,25069,00.html NOTE: It's really not stated whether the I is the winner or if it's just a representation. Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire. Kimmi! Get back here!   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-15-01, 11:30 PM (EST) 9. "Well, actually..." I have read this before, Kokoro (was it you that originally posted the link to it on ss.com? I copied the link from there and put it in a post here), and I remember the long debate on ss.com about whether the person in the "I" is the winner. We have no way of knowing. Right now, I'm leaning toward Keith as the winner because of his post-Survivor behavior as opposed to Amber's, not because I think the winner is pictured on either the book cover or in the "I." My real point to CJ is that the image on the book cover could as easily be Keith as it could Colby.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-16-01, 00:06 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Well, actually..." ^-^ I don't have an account at SS....I used to but that was a looong time ago. (it didn't have many posts on it and it got deleted whenever they did their clearing) <<We have no way of knowing....My real point to CJ is that the image on the book cover could as easily be Keith as it could Colby.>> It could also be Rodger or a mix of contestants....the figure from last year was the same; You're really not going to get it unless you know the outcome and what it's supposed to be. Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire. Kimmi! Get back here!   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-16-01, 03:06 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Well, just to play devil's advocate....." Keith appears, because of post Survivor sucess, to be *a* winner but he had prior restrauant and family/history as a Chef before the show. Besides the 3rd, 4th place people get $185,000(?) and Keiths cookbook deal was inked before he was chosen for S2. In S1 MB "forshadowed" (dumb expression) that Dicque was a pompous, plotting, jerk who was out for #1. As much as MB likes to make us believe things ain't what they seem----sometime, as with Hatch, truth is just that....truth. Even for sorry winners like Hatch. Colby is smart. Darn it has taken 7 episodes to even begin to make viewers catch on to this fact. My prediction is Colby, the Daytime Leader, will convince Tina/Keith the smart thing is to vote out Lis because she is too loveable; she's trying to break Oga's alliance via Tina or even (horrors) convert brainless Lamber to Kucha; and she is the only thing propping Kentuck Joe up. Sure Nick might win Immunity but with Liz gone it's Ogakor 5-Kucha 2. Meanwhile Colby, the Nightime Savior of lost females, explains to Jerri and Amber they don't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning IF peppy, cute LisLis is around. Nick & Rodger adore her and Keith may fall victim to her charms! Anyway, Keith has already won 2 IC's; thanks to Tina. Count on Colby--brains, brawn & sheer hatrid of losing--- to win at least 2 of the upcoming Immunity Challanges. Dalton   Top

jkkeller 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-16-01, 10:34 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Well, just to play devil's advocate....." A little financial correction...not to be taken as a rebuttal to your points! Unless they changed the prize earnings, whoever finishes second (i.e. Kelly in S1) earns $100,000. Third place (i.e. Rudy) earns $85,000. The amounts drop from there. The only other prize earnings that I'm certain of are 16th (i.e. Sonja) who gets $2,500 and I've also read that Jenna got $30,000, for being voted off right at the half way point. This is all information gathered from the People Magazine Survivor special.   Top

lambity 50 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-16-01, 04:23 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Well, just to play devil's advocate....." >Unless they changed the prize earnings, >whoever finishes second (i.e. Kelly >in S1) earns $100,000. >Third place (i.e. Rudy) earns >$85,000. The amounts drop > Adding to the list... I've read in an interview between S1 Sue and the Sue Hawk fansite webmaster, Wanda, Sue mentions she received US $70,000 for her 4th placing.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-17-01, 02:06 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Well, just to play devil's advocate....." Not that it matters too much but I've compiled this list of a very likely payoff (not quite sure under Jenna, but it seems to fit) Rich: 1000000 Kelly: 100000 Rudy: 85000 Sue: 70000 Sean: 60000 Colleen: 50000 Gervase: 40000 Jenna: 30000 Greg: 20000 Gretchen: 10000 Joel: 7500 Dirk: 6500 Ramona: 5500 Stacey: 4500 B.B.: 3500 Sonja: 2500 Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire. Kimmi! Get back here!   Top

jkkeller 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-15-01, 07:40 PM (EST) 4. "RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" I agree with you completely, but there is one far-flung possibility that you haven't considered. And, this possibility would fulfill the rumors we've heard over and over again, about "alliances shifting". 1) The Ogies hold a 5-3 advantage right now, and at least three of the five tribesmen appear to hate Jerri. They could spend the next three episodes voting of the Kuchans one by one (suffering through Jerri for more than a week), and then break into the Tina/Keith and Amber/Jerri sub-groups, with Colby (Who, I agree, has been REALLY hiding his intelligence until the last couple weeks) as the swing vote. THEN, Jerri and Amber are gone. 2) Knowing that they could still maintain a 4-3 advantage, if they were to lose one of their own members, Colby/Tina/Keith could temporarily side with the Kuchans, to vote Jerri out of the game, at the NEXT tribal council. Kucha still would have a voting disadvantage, and couldn't stop the Ogies from bumping them off. What happens after that becomes the kicker. 3) Amber could buddy up to EITHER tribe. If she stays aligned with Ogakor, Keith/Tina/Colby all see her as Jerri's "pet". Once they dispose of the remaining Kuchans, she'd be the first to go. OR, if she is truly close to Jerri, she could be quite upset about her tribemates turning on her. She COULD make a deal with the Kuchans, which would give the Kuchans a 4-3 advantage. They then vote off Keith/Colby/Tina in successive weeks. However, Amber's plan is still foiled, when the Kuchan trio of Nick/Liz/Rodger vote her out. Either way, if Jerri is voted out of the outback, Amber is soon to follow. It's a long shot, but it would certainly make the next four episodes more interesting.   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-15-01, 07:44 PM (EST) 5. "Episode 11 is Key..." They won't touch Jerri until there aren't enuff other tribe members for Amber to join with... This happens in Episode 11.   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-15-01, 08:45 PM (EST) 7. "RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" >1. Colby is smart!!! >2. Mark Burnett usually makes us believe something that is not true. Hey CJ -- if #2 is true, then isn't it possible #1 isn't??? ....that Burnett just wants you to BELIEVE Colby is smart? That he wants you to BELIEVE that Colby and Amber and Keith and Tina with believe him??? Sorry, based on just the above "evidence", I'm not buying that Colby won it -- he's too obvious at this point, if he won it Burnett would not have included the clips about both Jerri/Amber and Keith/Tina believing him   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-15-01, 11:47 PM (EST) 10. "RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" Your logic makes a lot of sense to me. I can't believe the number of people who have fallen for this Liz-Amber red herring. However, although Colby has a lot of survivoresque qualities to him, that may prove to be his undoing. He is too strong and too nice and poses a big threat. I wouldn't be surprised if both the Keith-Tina and Jerri-Amber alliances vote him off for 5th place unless he wins immunity. He sure is gorgeous though. Love those teeth. I do agree with Jerri being second.   Top

StratPlayer 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-16-01, 10:36 PM (EST) 17. "RE: I BEG OF THEE - DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!" Nice analysis there CJ but I don’t agree on a couple of points. << - Jerri and Amber WILL NOT defect, unless THEY are given a reason not to believe Colby. >> I think Jerri/Amber already have ample reason to believe Colby will side with Keith/Tina against them. Colby may be playing to Amber but I don’t think he will be able to drive a wedge between her and Jerri. If Jerri says vote Colby, Amber will. Barring immunity, Jerri/Amber suspect they will do no better than 4th and 5th place. IMO, Jerri and Amber will defect, especially if Nick is voted off next week. Colby playing both sides is a double edge sword. The Keith/Tina and Jerri/Amber teams are well aware of what he is doing. They know Colby cannot be trusted. I suspect Jerri/Amber will side with Liz/Roger for this reason and vote Colby off at the earliest opportunity. As AK said, Colby will get in trouble because he has no strong ally. Roger and Liz might not like Jerri but by siding with her they will do better than 6th and 7th. If Colby is smart, he will organize an attack on Liz, not Nick, as the next Kucha to go. If Colby is really smart, in a few weeks he will he will organize an attack on Amber, not Jerri, allowing Jerri in the final 4. But I don’t think either of those things will happen. Final 4: three babes and the old guy. Jerri, Liz, Amber and Roger.   Top

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