Yeah, I don't see Kelly lasting long. I agree, her arm (and Stephen's arm) are out way too far. Their bicep will tire, causing the muscles to spasm and the arm to shake. The arm placement of all others (to a degree) looks better. Joe and Savage look solid. I'm interested in seeing how Joe's side stance works for him.
Keith and Jeremy look borderline. Jeremy actually looks too tense. Like he's using muscle strength to keep his arm "locked" in. And for me, Keith's stance is going to be a problem. His center of gravity should be placed OVER the wood. The ankle is the anchor to that center. His ankles are hanging over a bit and if not careful (or done for too long) will cause him to shake and possibly lose center of gravity, resulting in having to readjust faster which will cause the balls to over compensate. Keith is indeed good with his balls, but I don't see him winning this one.

Besides, these are all from round 1. 1 big ball, 1st handhold, widest plank.
With Round 2 (2 medium balls, 2nd handhold, middle plank) and Round 3 (3 small balls, 3rd handhold, narrowest plank) I only see Joe, Savage and possibly Jeremy getting there. OF THESE 6.

With the others...
Kimmi, Abi, Kass, Ciera, Spencer, Kelley and Tasha. As noted, this image is definitely from seconds after JP says "drop your hands..." Kimmi, Abi and Kelley are the last to accomplish it, so it's hard to tell how well or badly those three will do. (But I'll 'limb' it and say none of the three are our winner)
Kass and Spencer seem to have that arm too far out problem, Tasha and Ciera look pretty locked in.

I think the winner of the IC will be either Tasha, Ciera, Joe or Savage. Neither Jeremy or Keith will feel the need to push harder at this moment. With Joe and Savage still there, Jeremy should feel VERY safe. Joe and Savage are alpha beasts who don't want to be in danger when they go to TC. Ciera feels in danger and it's because Savage tossed her name under the bus last TC. She's gonna play hard just so she can beat Savage (and be secure). Tasha is, apparently, just that single minded. Goal = The End. No matter how many good things are neglected or bad things paid attention too. (She's gonna be doing a lot of penance when she gets home.)
Maybe the airing of dirty laundry between Kass and Tasha creates enough of a doubt in Tasha's head that she'll NEED to win this IC.

On paper, Kass, Ciera, Joe, Kelley and Keith are still aligned, and they have since added Spencer to their ranks.

Tasha, Savage and Abi are together and presumably, Savage and Tasha REjoin their alliance mate Jeremy. Who was kinda forced into aligning with Stephen and Kimmi.

In this scenario, where would Kelly align herself?

But, as I see it... Old-Bayon is indeed split. Original alliance mates will hook back up and new alliances made since will falter. Joe, Savage, Keith, Jeremy and Tasha will be tight. Kelley may follow Joe, if that side has the numbers, and I think they will.
At that point, Kass, Spencer and Ciera MUST gain/maintain Abi and Kelly, as well as Stephen and Kimmi to get numbers.
But do Kimmi and Stephen feel most safe with the old-bayon? They're 6th and 7th no matter which side they choose, so they'll probably stick with the familiar. And while Kelly is pretty much up in the air as far as predicting where she'll go, Abi is fairly predictable when aligning, wherever she feels safest and most needed. Tasha and Savage have offered that to her already and don't appear to be turning it off, at least to Abi's perception. So I predict Abi falls in line behind Tahsa and Savage, along with all the rest of the Old-Bayon poweralliance.