I figured I'd cover both of you in one message (I'm also including JP). I can't say as I have the idol but I can't promise I don't, either.
I can promise that I'll make it extra long, in hopes you'll lose interest after a couple of paragraphs and dismiss me as the doddering old fool talking to himself in the corner.

michel: Being confronted by a 5 guy alliance forced Baylor and Jaclyn to be close.
It forced them to seek each other out to make a last chance save for themselves. Clinging to each other for safety is natural, but when the safety is supplied elsewhere there will be no need for these ladies to be close. Baylor, from the beginning, was with Wes and Alec. She put herself in Josh's pocket, in hopes of insuring her safety, and it backfired on her.
The only time Baylor and Jaclyn even hung out was after Baylor received votes a second time. Baylor was feeling duped by her alliance with the guys and tried a different tack. She asked Jaclyn if she thought John should go. OF COURSE Jaclyn would say yes to that. She was THE LAST remaining non-aligned player. Jaclyn would have said yes to anyone who had asked her to join in on something. IOW, Jaclyn would have voted for Baylor if it saved her. Jaclyn may feel more attachment to Baylor because of the save, but my read from her personality is that she doesn't care what other people think about her. Nor do I think she'll feel any sort of obligation to go out of her way to repay the favor. These ladies are as tight as ... well, something that is not tight at all.

michel: You need to trust each other to be that open about such a big move.
Not true at all. Backed into a corner they were grasping for anything, they both thought they were in trouble and FINALLY tried to work out a deal. Baylor's "plan" met the disapproval of her buddies Wes and Alec. And ONLY when Josh brought it up (to appease his cross-tribal potntials) with Wes and Baylor did the plan go into action. Neither of the ladies were crowned in the re-edit as being the conspirators, Josh turned on his alliancemate.

FloPo: Baylor will dictate to her mom what she's going to do and her mom will be with her, imo. Baylor has gotten close with Jacklyn, and Jacklyn will follow Baylor. I see Jacklyn/Jon bound to Baylor. Baylor knows they NEED Jon to survive to merge, if they have any hope of winning a challenge.
In what world does the daughter dictate what her mother is going to do. 3 divorces means the woman is making her own decisions despite what her daughter says. Missy is by no means helpless and as evidenced from the strategy talks at Hunahpu, she was the one to spearhead the Drew boot. Because Kelley, her besty, told her what Drew was talking about. Forming a finally succesful woman's alliance AND getting Jeremy to change his vote. Missy is the one to watch. Baylor has a lot to learn.

FloPo: Baylor and Jacklyn are NOT aligned with Dale at all. Dale, clearly would have been the next to go in Coyopa.
No doubts there. Save for one, Jaclyn could indeed have been next. Her mouth at the JohnR boot ALMOST ruined everything. Even Baylor looked at her like she'd lost her freakin' mind. Baylor is lucky John was so dense, because Jaclyn nearly ruined it for her.

michel: Considering how Dale voted against her, I think it will be easier for Baylor to get Missy to vote against him than going after Jon.
While in this new tribe Baylor has the least amount of like for Dale, it won't mean that she can't work with other people's targets. I seriously doubt, that once Nu-Coyopa is formed that Baylor will take control. And suggesting that they boot Dale, while a priority on her list, may not be the first priority on anyone else's list. PLUS after Jon's freakout after TC, I doubt any love will be lost for Drewchebag's besty. Missy and Kelley witnessed first hand Drew's backslide into dementia. They also saw Jon completely wig out after TC. Neither of them, ANY of them have ever seen Dale freak out.

michel: Being Keith's father will help Keith with Baylor since she liked the young guy.
Yes, Baylor liked Wes. BUT Wes decided to send Josh as a trusted ally to go to Exile with Keith, not Baylor. While Keith may certainly not be on top of Baylor's target list, if she were to listen to her mother, Keith and Jon would be on that list.

FloPo: Jiffy has stated in interviews that Jon and Jacklyn are around each other enough this season to argue.
Well, can't argue with that. Oh wait, yes I can... but I'll wait.

michel: Reed wasn't even close enough to Jeremy to vote with him so I don't see him going that way.
Reed was close enough to Jeremy to inform him of Keith's backstab. He did it freely. Certainly not done under duress or threat of bootation. (Unlike Baylor and Jaclyn's last minute deal.) Reed obviously wanted to work with Jeremy. And just because they voted different doesn't mean they can't regain and build something together.

FloPo: Keith showed with his vote that he was with Jon. I think Keith and Jon are in good standing.
Keith is solo. Even when in an alliance with Jeremy, he went to the other person of power to rid himself of Jeremy. He thought it was Jon, Drew freaked out and went on the power hunt. He may not know that Jon voted for him exactly, but I also believe he won't trust Jon at any point in the future. I dunno where this 'in good standing' feeling is coming from but I don't see much of the original impressions lasting through that last TC.

FloPo: Reed and Josh are the serious players here, at least we have seen Josh play
Agreed.

FloPo: but Reed and Josh were shining in their intro together. I see Reed sticking like glue to Josh
I also agreed that Reed and Josh will be tight at Nu-Hunahpu. But for reasons dicussed above, I think Jeremy and Natalie figure more in Reed's game (as a majority as well) than Alec and Wes do in Josh's. Well, at least Alec. Josh seemed surprised that Wes chose him to go to exile with Keith. A trip where Josh admitted to wanting to see if something worked out between him and Keith. Josh knows that Wes is tight with Baylor and Josh wants to use Baylor, so he will probably use Wes as well, for as long as he needs to.

FloPo: I see Josh solidly with Wes/Alec.
I just don't. I see Josh as being tight with Baylor and John. 2 people whom pretty much loathed each other. Baylor was friends with Wes/Alec and John was tight with Dale. Josh worked between those groups. I don't see Josh tight with anyone but Reed and I also believe that Reed is the less flighty individual of the two and Josh will need his groundedness.

JP: People came in out of the gate saying, let's let loved ones dominate this game and try to get as deep as we can with as many pairs. So right from the beginning there was a new strategy.
Yup. Exactly opposite from last time. And for Nu-Hunahpu that does have ominous warnings for Jeremy, Natalie, Julie and Alec. (But of those four, I see Natalie, Julie and Alec in more trouble than I see Jeremy in trouble. At least until the merge. Then Jeremy is a goner.)

JP: Tribes have issues that they have to deal with me about, and they're losing things and wanting to trade for things and running out of things.
They lost their flint, check. They wanted to trade their found flint for a reward, check. They will run out of staple food supplies, check. I can't say the issues are over completely, but I doubt these little snafus will occur much after the loss of beans/rice in ep5. In fact, JP doesn't have another example to cite after the running out of supplies. And to remember the first three and none from later in the game, points to nothing like that happening past the merge.

JP: But Kelley's main worry now is her dad's social skills — or lack thereof. "Dale lives on a farm and doesn't really talk to anybody, and that was his daughter's biggest concern," Probst says. "'My dad is a social outcast, and he's used to doing things his own way. I don't know how he's going to do in the game, and I don't want him to drag me down.'
Okay, Kelley, when forced between her own alliance and covering for her dad, will choose the alliance. That could come into play this week but it could also be something that happens after the merge. I find the audience perspective of Dale is much much much worse than his read from the contestants has been.
Sure, in Kelley's world Dale is socially awkward, but there are all kinds of people in this game and much like Julie's perception of Johns game affecting her game is much worse than anything Dale has done to Kelley's chances. And just like Baylor tolerated Dale becuase of her alliance, she will do the same in this scenario.

JP: But what's interesting is watching Jon/Jaclyn's relationship play out. They're a couple and they love each other, but this game is hard. And, give people enough time together on Survivor, they will argue, no matter how much you love each other.
Enough time together is subjective. For me and my SO it takes moments. For other couples I know it takes years. I don't think Jon/Jaclyn have a solid and respectful relationship and I doubt it will take long until they start to fight. BUT, I do get the feeling that it might not happen in 3 days. And as far as the source for these two, the only thing semi-solid about it is that one of them outlasts the other and neither of them is in the finals. However, even though it was said directly after talking about Jon/Jaclyn it doesn't mean that the fighting won't come from other "couples" down the road.

But I digress, once again, in the interest of saving my butt at the upcoming tribal council where it looks like the editing masters have chosen to align and write my name down.
I trust your opinons immensely, but what I found myself doing, specially this season, is NOT going with my first interpretations and concocting scenarios where things fit according to what others have suggested. Almost there is still not there. I want to be there. And making Jon safe because of an FB post about future financial stability is just the sort of thing to pull me off track. Because then I start thinking of scenarios wherein Both Jaclyn and Jon make it through and how they can accomplish that.
Honestly, I have no idea how either of you got to perceiving that Baylor and Jaclyn are tight, nor where Jon and Keith will align. Nor where Missy and Kelley won't stay aligned. If Missy goes with Baylor than Kelley goes too. At which point Dale would also come along.
But suggesting that Jaclyn and Jon have the power or the influence to split apart alliances or blood relatives is kind of nonsensical to me. welll...maybe...nope. Don't make sense.
Keith may be safe because of his friend of a friend contact with Wes/Josh and Baylor, but I seriously doubt Baylor would go out on a limb to keep Keith there just for either Josh or Wes.
My guess is that we could go around and around about this until Wednesday, or until more defining vidcaps are revealed, or some sort of reliable source reveals itself but I doubt I'll end up voting like the majority. And I'll be okay with it.
Love you both, thanks for keeping me on my toes. Good luck!