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"Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"	09-13-14, 03:35 PM (EST)
"Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"
Don't you guys miss the early seasons of Survivor? Nowadays, there isn't enough space to put the full title of the season on the header of our posts! With that being said, Survivor - San Juan del Sur - Blood versus Water is just around the corner so I thought it would be fun to start looking at the people that have been cast for this season. Last season, the editors surprised us by "hiding" the winner in plain sight. I fell for the "never give up" story that seemed centered around Spencer but, in the end, it was Tony that was saved by an unexpected challenge win by Kass and a last minute stupid decision by Woo. Despite the lucky turn of events, it was still a fun season. Some will say that I messed up but I have missed obvious winners before, JT and Denise for example. I want to point out that, while I try to discover who will be the Sole Survivor, that isn't the main goal of this thread. What I want to do is have fun with the stories that are being told, the themes that are developped during the season. It's really about discerning the long term players of the season and how their stories evolve from the start. Kass, Spencer, Tasha, Tony and Sarah were the players that we followed through those themes and they were the ones that made it an interesting season. Jeff says this is a fun cast and the events may prove him right but, from my perspective, most of the players' introduction videos were dull. First of all, it's a very young cast with only 5 players over the age of 35. 9 of them are in their twenties so we already have an indication that the senior citizens of this cast are in trouble. Also, it seems that almost every pair talked about voting out their partner as if this was part of the script that production imposed. Jeff talks so much about the need to make big moves that the equation is easy to understand: Ratings need big moves + People want to look good on TV = People make big moves because they know that, even if it kills their game, they will get a return invitation. Survivor Blows? Indeed! But we all knew that there wasn't much reality in Reality TV, didn't we?! With the bashing firmly established, let's look at these DAWS and see if their introduction videos give us an indication of things to come. John Rocker and Julie Mc Gee Hopefully, we will get some laughs from “Off-his-Rocker” but it will be a surprise if he does better than Kent. The retared pitcher says he will take his clubhouse experience to get along with his tribe mates but that remains to be seen. Listening to his video, I got the feeling that he talked to a PR expert and was trying to say all the right things but how long can he keep it up? For example, he says he can read people and change his personality to mesh with other but will he be able to do it for 39 days? Or even simply for a week?! He enters the game with the right attitude and his biggest fear is to be voted out first. His athleticism should keep him safe at first but the fear to be voted out could make him do crazy things that would get him voted out first. More likely, I see him going the way of Culpepper; leaving just a few rounds before the merger. Julie could be in as much trouble as Rachel and Marissa combined in the first BvW! She should be targeted just to prevent John from having an ally at the merger. Or, like Monica, she will have to watch her husband get bashed by his tribe. I doubt that she will be able to take it as well as Monica and turn it to her advantage. Playing with her boyfriend on the other side eliminates a possible flirting strategy. She says she is good at earning trust and John says her social game will be excellent but I don’t think Julie will make the merger. Josh Canfield and Reed Kelly Like his partner, Josh seems to have a fun personality and it could serve him well to make bonds with others. On the other hand, he could be too much for some of the other members of his tribe. According to Reed, Josh's weakness is a lack of a poker face so that could be fatal on Coyopa, a tribe with many big characters. I get the feeling that Reed will lack the patience that is needed to play this game. Of course, he could go full tilt for 39 days like Tony just did, but that isn’t the usual winning recipe. If he can’t stand slow pedestrian and servers, how will he adjust when there is nothing to do for days? He is a big fan of the show so he could make it far in this game. He says he plans to work behind the scene but that generally isn’t the first step. He needs to start by making connections in order to be able to do the things he wants to do behind the scenes afterwards. If he can’t establish enough connections, then he will be spinning his wheels to no avail. Drew and Alec Christy This pair could go down the way of Aras and Vytas in the first evolution of this twist but with a lot less fan appeal. They will be needed at first because of their athleticism but no one will want them to take control at the merger. Drew is older and he seems to be the true fan in this pair. On the other hand, he says he is there more for the experience than the money contrary to his brother so maybe we will have a Cain and Abel story but with the younger brother wielding the knife. It was funny to hear Drew say that Alec can’t shut up when it was actually the older brother that did most of the talking in their introduction video. I think Alec, the younger brother, the one that will be getting his college degree, has a much better chance to succeed instead of the big-planner, the party animal, Drew. Still, both are unlikely winners. Missy Payne and Baylor Wilson It seems that, according to Missy, the world has enough doctors, engineers and scientists so the little girls should all aspire to become Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders. Is it a Texas thing? At least the mom has made a business out of that crap. The daughter looks and sounds like a mindless puppet. People will say that she is still young but being 20 isn't an excuse for being that dumb. I see a spoiled brat that thinks she is better than everyone else. The only interesting thing I found about them is that they put Missy, the person with the most pet peeves, on the same tribe as Jon, the guy who hates people that have too many of them! I'd love to see Missy start complaining about everyone's idiosyncrasies only to have Jon shut her up. If a conflict erupts between the two and the tribe has to decide between them, the athletic guy should have the advantage. This pair was probably cast in an attempt to recreate the Laura and Ciera dynamics but I simply don’t see it happening. These two practically put me to sleep while watching their 2 minute introduction video so I don’t expect anything from them. This dynamic duo wants to make Survivor history by being in the final 3 together! I wouldn’t be surprised, or disappointed, if they make history by being the first two voted out. They talk about Baylor winning every challenge? Then they say she isn’t good in the water or in puzzles so that, right there, tells us that they are in way over their head. Wes and Keith Nale Wes says he will play like Ozzy and Russell which is about the worst combination possible! It tells us that he will become a huge target early on. He does say he understands the importance of the social game which was the downfall of his two idols but will he be able to apply it? I think he will go far only if he becomes someone’s tool. Keith may have drawn the favorable ticket here by landing on the older tribe. At the very least, he has a chance of avoiding being the first one voted out because Missy could be seen as the weakest. That, however, is predicated on Honeypoo turning into a “Love-Tribe” where everyone gets along and they reach a consensus to vote out the weakest. Being teamed up with someone who looks a strong as Wes could hurt him also. I don’t give Wes and Keith even the smallest chance of winning this game. Nadiya and Natalie Anderson It’s been a while since I’ve watched The Amazing Race regularly but I’m sure they could have cast a more interesting pair than this one. I saw the premiere of their second Amazing Race and it wasn’t pretty to say the least. I think Natalie was more rational than her sister. From what I remember, Nadiya wouldn’t stop complaining about the wrong decisions that she thought Natalie was making so that should get her in trouble. I don't give either of the twins a chance to win this game. They are abrasive even to each other so imagine how they will be to people that get on their nerves and there will be people getting on their nerves. I don't think they will be smart players either because they simply don't know the game. Jon Misch and Jaclyn Schultz Like Julie, Jaclyn could be in trouble just for being tied to a strong guy. Ex-Beauty queens have had mixed results on the show so will she be like Danni and Amanda or more like Angie and Katie? Time will tell but it doesn’t help that she compares herself to Jefra. In fact, it makes me think she only saw the last season and thinks she has the whole thing figured out. I probably like Jon more than most viewers because he seems very well prepared for this game. I especially liked his answer that his pet peeve is people that have too many pet peeves. Could he be good for a few funny moments? That would be great. He seems to understand the importance of the social game so that could get him far in this game. I also like the fact that he doesn’t come in with a pre-planned strategy, a “ready-to-wear” game plan. Like he says; you have to let the game develop BUT I hope he doesn’t forget the importance of the early alliance. Dale and Kelley Wentworth In practically every pair, it’s one’s person idea to be on the show, to play this game. In this case, it seems to be Dale’s adventure and it sounds more like Kelley is there to accompany him. Unfortunately, he says that he isn’t good at the social game so that could end his story fairly quickly. Even if Dale manages to get along with the others and shows that he is a strong worker, his age will cost him the game. Age has always been the biggest divider in this game. Being teamed up with his daughter is an advantage he has over the other older gentleman, Keith, because no one should target him to weaken her game. While farming isn’t as demanding these days, it still keeps a man in shape a lot more than a sedentary job. Dale, like other older men, could go far if he survives the early votes but I don't think he will. He'd need a good social game. Even if this wasn’t her idea, Kelley seems to have the right attitude towards this game. She looks like a smart, athletic woman. If she is as good at scrabble and board games as she says, it could help her in some of Survivor’s “Mickey-Mouse-challenges”. It must be noted that she has probably the worst pet peeves to play Survivor. She says she can’t stand people who are either lazy, overconfident or don’t stick to their word, so that could easily get her in trouble. However, she says that socializing is her strength so maybe she will find a way to live with the others. Being paired with a non-threat will help her fly under the radar. Kelley has to be considered as a possible winner. Jeremy and Val Collins Jeremy could be the surprise of the season. He names JT, James and Tyson as the players he’s liked so we know he has watched the show before. Being a firefighter could not only help him get in an alliance with Keith and Wes but it should help him in the more physical challenges. He seems to be a very likeable guy so, hopefully, that will help him early on and not come back to bite him in the butt when the players start eliminating jury threats. His laid-back attitude could also help him if the tribe is doing well and getting along, but it could turn into a problem if they are struggling to win challenges or build a decent shelter. I think Jeremy could win this game. Police officers have done well in strategy games lately so maybe Val will continue the string. She hates liars though so it makes me wonder if she will think everyone is lying to her. That isn’t a bad way to play the game but it can be exhausting. Saying that she compares herself to Monica and Taj doesn’t tell us much about her potential game as those two are probably people she liked more than players she would emulate. I was very impressed with her attitude and how she thinks her job will help her. If Jeremy doesn’t win, maybe his wife will.
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Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID

RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... suzzee 09-22-14 1

   RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... michel2 09-22-14 2

       RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Round Robin 09-23-14 3

           RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... suzzee 09-24-14 4

               RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... michel2 09-24-14 5

Everyone Loves a Firefighter michel2 09-27-14 6

   RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter Georganna 09-27-14 7

   RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter Tyrone Slothrop 09-28-14 8

   RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter suzzee 09-29-14 11

       RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter michel2 10-01-14 15

   RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter Flowerpower1 09-30-14 12

       RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter michel2 09-30-14 13

           RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter Flowerpower1 10-01-14 14

               RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter michel2 10-01-14 16

   RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter SuperGrover 10-03-14 19

RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Deitaphobia 09-28-14 9

   RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... bbaper 09-29-14 10

       RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Outsider32 10-02-14 17

           RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... PepeLePew13 10-02-14 18

Episode2 The Assets: michel2 10-04-14 20

   RE: Episode2 The Assets: Flowerpower1 10-05-14 21

       RE: Episode2 The Assets: suzzee 10-06-14 24

       RE: Episode2 The Assets: michel2 10-06-14 25

           RE: Episode2 The Assets: Flowerpower1 10-07-14 26

   RE: Episode2 The Assets: SuperGrover 10-06-14 22

       RE: Episode2 The Assets: Flowerpower1 10-07-14 27

   RE: Episode2 The Assets: suzzee 10-06-14 23

RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Georganna 10-09-14 28

Episode 3 - Making Changes michel2 10-11-14 29

   The Odd Couple ... Georganna 10-11-14 30

       RE: The Odd Couple ... michel2 10-12-14 32

           RE: The Odd Couple ... Georganna 10-13-14 36

               RE: The Odd Couple ... michel2 10-13-14 37

                   RE: The Odd Couple ... Georganna 10-14-14 39

   RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes Outsider32 10-11-14 31

       RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes michel2 10-12-14 33

   RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes Flowerpower1 10-13-14 34

       RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes michel2 10-13-14 35

           RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes Flowerpower1 10-13-14 38

               RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes CTgirl 10-14-14 40

                   Additionally... Flowerpower1 10-14-14 41

Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls michel2 10-18-14 42

   RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls Outsider32 10-21-14 43

       RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls michel2 10-21-14 46

   RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls Flowerpower1 10-21-14 44

       RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls michel2 10-21-14 45

           RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls Flowerpower1 10-22-14 47

Episode 5 - The Honeymoon michel2 10-25-14 48

   RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon Jims03 10-25-14 49

       RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon michel2 10-27-14 54

   RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon suzzee 10-27-14 50

       RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon michel2 10-27-14 55

   RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon Flowerpower1 10-27-14 51

       RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon Jims03 10-27-14 52

       RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon michel2 10-27-14 53

Episode 6 - The New Power Couple michel2 11-01-14 56

   RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... Jims03 11-01-14 57

       RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... michel2 11-01-14 61

   RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... Tyrone Slothrop 11-01-14 58

       RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... PepeLePew13 11-01-14 59

           RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... Jims03 11-01-14 60

           RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... michel2 11-01-14 63

               RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... PepeLePew13 11-01-14 64

       RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... michel2 11-01-14 62

           RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... Outsider32 11-02-14 65

               RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... Outsider32 11-02-14 66

   RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Coupl... Flowerpower1 11-05-14 67

       Question... Flowerpower1 11-07-14 68

           RE: Question... michel2 11-08-14 69

Episode 7 - Follow My Lead: michel2 11-08-14 70

   RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead: Outsider32 11-09-14 71

   RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead: Flowerpower1 11-09-14 72

       RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead: michel2 11-09-14 73

           RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead: Flowerpower1 11-09-14 74

       RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead: Jims03 11-10-14 75

           RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead: michel2 11-12-14 76

Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs michel2 11-15-14 77

   RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs Callandor 11-18-14 78

       RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs michel2 11-18-14 81

   RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs suzzee 11-18-14 79

       RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs michel2 11-18-14 80

   RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs Flowerpower1 11-18-14 82

       RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs michel2 11-18-14 83

           RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs Flowerpower1 11-19-14 85

               RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs Sheldor 11-21-14 88

RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Georganna 11-18-14 84

   RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... michel2 11-19-14 86

       RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Georganna 11-21-14 87

   RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Sheldor 11-21-14 89

       RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and... Outsider32 11-22-14 91

Disappointed Outsider32 11-22-14 90

   !! michel2 11-22-14 92

Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game: michel2 11-22-14 93

   RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... Jims03 11-23-14 94

       RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... michel2 11-26-14 97

           RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... PepeLePew13 11-27-14 102

   RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... Flowerpower1 11-26-14 95

       RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... michel2 11-26-14 96

           RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... Sheldor 11-26-14 98

               RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... michel2 11-26-14 99

                   RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... Sheldor 11-27-14 100

                       RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... PepeLePew13 11-27-14 103

                           RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... michel2 11-28-14 105

           RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... Flowerpower1 11-27-14 101

               RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Ga... Jims03 11-27-14 104

Episode 10 - Complete Chaos michel2 11-29-14 106

   RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos Flowerpower1 11-30-14 107

       RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos b1whois 12-01-14 108

           RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos michel2 12-01-14 110

               RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos Flowerpower1 12-01-14 111

       RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos michel2 12-01-14 109

Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighti... michel2 12-06-14 112

   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Tyrone Slothrop 12-07-14 113

   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... kingfish 12-08-14 114

       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-08-14 118

   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Flowerpower1 12-08-14 115

       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... suzzee 12-08-14 117

       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-08-14 120

           RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Flowerpower1 12-08-14 122

               RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-08-14 123

           RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Georganna 12-08-14 126

               RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Brownroach 12-09-14 127

                   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Georganna 12-09-14 128

                       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Brownroach 12-09-14 129

   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... suzzee 12-08-14 116

       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-08-14 119

   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Jims03 12-08-14 121

       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-08-14 124

           RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Jims03 12-08-14 125

               RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Flowerpower1 12-09-14 130

                   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Jims03 12-09-14 131

                       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-09-14 132

                           RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Jims03 12-09-14 133

                               RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Brownroach 12-09-14 134

                           RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... PepeLePew13 12-09-14 135

                               RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Flowerpower1 12-10-14 137

                               RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-10-14 138

                                   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Sheldor 12-10-14 139

                                       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Jims03 12-10-14 140

                                           RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-12-14 144

                                       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... michel2 12-12-14 143

                                   RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Flowerpower1 12-10-14 141

                       RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fi... Georganna 12-10-14 136

The final five Outsider32 12-10-14 142

Episode 13 - If They Were Smart michel2 12-13-14 145

   RE: Episode 13 - If They Were Smart PepeLePew13 12-13-14 146

       RE: Episode 13 - If They Were Smart Outsider32 12-16-14 147

       RE: Episode 13 - If They Were Smart Outsider32 12-16-14 148

           Also Outsider32 12-16-14 149

A Look Back at San Juan Del Unsure michel2 12-21-14 150

   RE: A Look Back at San Juan Del Uns... suzzee 12-29-14 151

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Messages in this topic

suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-22-14, 11:33 AM (EST)

1. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

LAST EDITED ON 09-22-14 AT 11:34 AM (EST)
Nice quick & dirty rundown. I haven't seen the cast video's just Jeff's assessment so I hardly know this bunch. Jeff sort of named Kelly & Dale as the journey couple and to a lesser extent the brothers Drew & Alec duo and I agree with you those two are no Vytas/Aras types and come off as whiney rather than focused.
I appreciate your thoughts and I hope more people come back to blows to contribute.
I see you're still with Cesternino's this season.

Suzzopolis by Tribe

Top

michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
09-22-14, 09:12 PM (EST)

2. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Thank you Suzzee, I always appreciate your contributions. While this place was the best for a very long time, we don't get much action these days. Rob's site is a lot of fun for that.

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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
09-23-14, 09:46 AM (EST)

3. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

RTVW's message boards in general don't seem to be getting much action for any of the shows lately. I see more discussion of reality competition shows on Twitter than anyplace, and there are lots of ex-players over there, some of whom still follow the shows they were on.

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-24-14, 03:39 PM (EST)

4. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Ugh, I know. This is like a go to place for me all Survivor & BB. waaaah. grrrr.
I will start checking out Rob's site more often though, so Michel you have a new stalker over there. Maybe some will find their way back little by little. Thanks a lot Mr. Fruit Loop Dingus Hacker for messing up my getaway place. pththt

I should be watched....closely.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
09-24-14, 05:35 PM (EST)

5. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Hopefully you will join in. It's pretty easy to register.
RR, I don't like the idea of twitter so I don't have an account and whatever the current players tweet is too close to spoiling for me.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
09-27-14, 08:15 PM (EST)

6. "Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

The premiere started with a reminder of the “highlights” we had in the first installment of the Blood versus Water twist, preparing us, once again, to “test the core of human emotions”.
We then saw a helicopter carrying Jeff as he flew over each pair’s day 0 camp. While we barely saw Dale and Kelley, the camera clearly showed us Jeremy and Val as they greeted the chopper. Jeff said: “It’s not even day 1 and the game has already begun” just as we saw Alec and Drew on their parcel of beach. We went back to Jeremy and Val as they reached their supplies which included flint. Jeff added: “Each pair has been given flint to practice making fire.” Jon and Kelley and Wes and Keith were shown going at it. Nadiya and Natalie were on screen when Jeff said: “It may be their only chance to help each other in the game” which, in hindsight, looks a lot like intentional foreshadowing.
In a welcomed return to the old days, Jeff introduced all the pairs, starting with Jon and Jaclyn, whom he said were already winners. While we saw Jaclyn carrying firewood, we heard Jon say: “Miss Michigan turned Survivor lady.” Their segment was mostly about dispelling the impression that they were the perfect couple.
Jeff then went on to John and the controversy that surrounds the pitcher. John said: “I’ve spent the last 15 years of my life trying to say I am not the loud, obnoxious, boisterous kind of guy, but the media has loved to paint me as a racist, bigot, homophobic, everything else.” Jeff then introduced Julie, saying that she hopes to provide the support they need to pitch a perfect game. (Was it a coincidence that John was shown carrying her at the time?!) Julie said she had a lot to prove because of the impression people get of her because of her looks (she narrowed it to the hair, the boobs and the boyfriend.) She went on to claim that she was independent and could stand on her own two feet but then she spotted crabs and immediately called John to the rescue.
We then met Missy and Baylor as they were trying to make fire. We heard Howler monkeys, Judd’s favorite animals, greeting them. They scared Baylor. Jeff talked about Missy’s three divorces and how they forced Baylor to take on the motherly role in this complicated relationship. Baylor was heard saying: “The divorces have brought us closer.” Missy talked about the unbelievable bond between mother and daughter. She added: “You can tear us apart; you can’t stop us, no way.” They still looked scared of the monkeys.
Next we had the brothers Alec and Drew and their sibling rivalry, saying that Alec would love nothing more than to outlast his older brother. Drew said he would love to see Alec win. While this was being said, we were being shown that Alec was the one that made fire.
The next pair was Kelley and Dale and the farmer was already hard at work. Jeff told us that, while Dale had been on the farm all his life, Kelley wanted to make her own path. Kelley: “My dad and I, we had an up and down relationship over the past 10 years or so.” Dale added: “I think Survivor will help us grow back together.” Their segment ended with them apparently unable to make fire because Kelley said: “we’re a hot mess.”
The first we saw of Josh and Reed, they were hunting for crabs. Jeff told us that these Broadway performers were “long time Survivor fans”. Jeff added: “Both think they have what it takes to survive 39 days.” Just as he said that, we saw Josh spearing and killing the crab. We also saw them quickly making fire while we heard them say they were comfortable in the outdoors.
The helicopter carried us to Jeremy and Val’s camp just as the fireman started the fire. Jeff said they were madly in love but, as a police officer and a fireman, they had a constant rivalry about their jobs. Jeremy said: “I’ve tried getting on Survivor for 10 years. I didn’t bring her out here and leave our daughters at home to lose.” Val added: “We are both in it to win it so may the best profession win.” (It’s tied 1-1 right now!)
Introducing the Sri-Lankan twins, Jeff said that they took an aggressive approach on the Amazing Race and that it failed them twice. We heard Natalie say: “Survivor is going to be way harder than the Amazing Race.” We heard the sisters starting a fight over fire. Nadiya said: “The longest we have been apart is 2 weeks.” We heard them calling out for help as the helicopter passed by.
Finally, we caught up with the father, son team of firefighters as they struggled to make fire. Jeff said: “While Keith is nearing retirement, he is not yet ready to pass the torch to his son, Wes.” We heard that Wes lost the striker to make fire. Wes said that it was his time to shine but dad disagreed, adding: “You are about as mentally strong as that rock.”
It has been a long time since we have heard complete introductions like this so we have to pay attention to what was shown. These pairs spent a whole day together but we barely saw 1 minute from each. The editors had a lot of material and they knew that the presentation would create lasting impressions so they must have put a lot of attention to this segment. While each viewer reacts differently, our analysis has to be as objective as possible to see which segments were meant to be positive, which were negative and which were chosen only for their entertainment value.
- The mainly neutral ones included Jon and Jaclyn, Drew and Alec and Dale and Kelley. It could be said that it was important to see Jaclyn-the-beauty-queen already hard at work but it wasn’t enough to create a lasting impression. One could argue that a story was established for the two brothers and for the father and daughter team, I saw it as rather trivial. The sibling rivalry may come into play during some physical challenges but their story is probably on hold until the merge. It remains to be seen if the father and daughter will have a chance to reunite.
- John and Julie, Missy and Baylor, Wes and Keith and Natalie and Nadiya had mostly negative presentations. John’s story is only about his personality and he said all the right things. At best, this will lead to a redemption edit or, more likely, it was a question of the calm before the storm. Julie is there to support John but we saw that she can’t support herself; she is already scared of crabs and snakes. Missy and Baylor were also frightened by the animals and they weren’t able to make fire. The good note for them is that a story is already established about their unique bond. While Wes and Keith had a negative presentation, I think it was shown to make us laugh and enjoy their company. If anything, the negativity was mostly thrown at Wes while his father looked like a good guy. The viewers who are fans of The Amazing Race recognized the twins and saw that they still can’t stop their arguments. They didn’t look ready for Survivors.
- Josh and Reed and Jeremy and Val had great introductions. The Broadway performers were described as true fans, something that the viewers always appreciate and, more than that, they showed us that they are survivalists. Right then, I guess that most of the viewers who knew nothing of the cast beforehand started rooting for this pair. If they didn’t, then it was because they decided to root for the husband and wife team instead. While they weren’t presented on the same level of Survivalists as Josh and Reed, they were presented as true competitors. The segment’s message was clear: They are ready to play the game. That is something viewers like also.
Next, Jeff went on his usual speech about working together while battling the elements and each other. Jeff concluded: “In the end, only one will remain to claim the million dollar prize”.
At that moment, we had a clear shot of Jeremy in what was obviously a winning pose.

Was it foreshadowing or misdirection? That’s what we have to figure out.
Everybody Loves a Firefighter
Day 1 started with the pairs making their way to the challenge arena. The first thing Jeff wanted to know was who made fire. The losers were: John and Julie, Missy and Baylor, Wes and Keith. Notice that Dale and Kelley apparently made fire even if we were led to believe they couldn’t. Asked if they were surprised by their ability to make fire, Josh and Reed confidently said no, Reed adding: “If you are going to be on Survivor, you need to know how to make fire.” John seemed surprised and impressed by them. Next, Jeff went to Keith and Wes who explained their problems. They made everyone laugh. The laughter only increased when they added that they broke their flint in half.
I noticed that the camera turned to Missy and Baylor when Keith said they were a father and son team. That combination could very well be a natural alliance for the mother daughter team. It is something to keep on the back-burner.
Going to the twins, Jeff asked who seemed to be in trouble from the start. Nadiya was diplomatic: “We learned on the Amazing Race not to judge a book by its cover...I feel like it’s anybody’s game.”
I found it interesting that the girls didn’t try to hide their Amazing Race experience. Maybe it was pointless, maybe somebody blurted out that they knew them but the presentation made them look careless, unaware that it could be sufficient reason to vote them out early.
When Jeff said they were dividing into tribes, Nadiya had a confessional to say that she felt a tug at the thought of being separated from Natalie.
This confessional was placed in a very familiar spot for someone about to be voted out.
Notice that those wearing blue wound up on Hunahpu, the blue tribe, while those wearing warm colors like red and yellow, wound up on Coyopa, the orange tribe. All of Hunahpu was in blue while John and Wes were the only exceptions on Coyopa. I think this proves once and for all that random draws are anything but random on Survivor.
Missy in confessional: “This is it. I am going to be competing against my daughter. It’s pretty touching for me and it brings it all home. This whole blood versus water; this is what it’s about.”
John told Jeff that this was like a civil war; brother versus brother.
Keith in confessional: “I watch all types of sports and I’m pretty damn sure that this is John Rocker, a relief pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. He was an ass when he played then and he might still be an ass now.”
Jeremy told Jeff he would like to help his wife but she quickly countered that she didn’t need his help.
After Jeff explained the challenge, Hunahpu had to choose their player. Jeremy immediately volunteered. He confidently told Jeff that he didn’t care who was going to be his opposition so Jeff surprised him by saying it would be Val. Jeff was amazed, saying: “The couple that talked the most trash about each other get the first battle against each other.”
After that random draw, I am less amazed by this outcome. It’s all too neat not to have been planned.
Despite a nice effort, Val was no match for Jeremy. He was in tears when Jeff asked how he felt about sending Val to Exile Island. Jeff then asked him to choose one person from his tribe to join Val and we saw that Kelley really didn’t want to go. Luckily for her, Jeremy chose Keith. Strangely, Jeremy explained it was because he knew Keith could start a fire despite the fact that Keith had already told everyone he hadn’t made fire. Jeff pointed out the odd decision but Jeremy replied: “It wasn’t his fault; it was his son’s fault.” Everyone laughed at that except Wes. The two men exchanged a handshake and a hug as they traded places.
This reinforces our impression from the presentation that Keith is supposed to be considered like a good guy while Wes is the dumb one.
Jeremy had a confessional: “I knew it was Blood versus Water but my worst nightmare was to do that to my wife and now she’s just gone and it’s my fault that she is gone.”
If the intent of this season is to once again test the core of human emotions then Jeremy is giving us all that we need.
The second segment started with Hunahpu’s arrival at camp accompanied by a very joyous musical theme.
Reed (solo): “We walked along this beautiful beach. It was an epic moment. I have goose bumps...Now we need to do things. This is it: Go!”
Jon had a funny remark: “We have this rusty stuff so that we can get tetanus: It’s like Christmas morning.”
Jeremy was still having problems with the thought of sending Val to Exile. Missy comforted him saying they would all be in that position at some point.
Jeremy in confessional: “Everybody was saying: Good job and it was a tough decision for me to go up against my wife but everyone is happy that I won flint and beans. Going into the challenge against my wife, I was like (he chokes up) I was like I ain’t crying out here, you know, like day 1. These dudes are going to kill me back home. Me, going one on one with her, that hurt and then to see her go away? That’s my wife. I need to take care of her and I didn’t do that. In blood versus water, you do have to think about your loved ones. With me and Val, I feel that it is about us as a couple but it doesn’t look good for her. I have a good rapport with women, I get along with women so it’s time to go balls to the walls; it’s time to play.”
As he said the last sentence, we saw him approaching Kelley, asking for her thoughts. She said she thought he was a good dude. Jeremy said they needed to stick together. They agreed to form a strong two.
Jeremy then approached Natalie, saying he had talked to Kelley, telling her they needed five. He asked Natalie how she felt about Kelley. Natalie said she liked her.
Natalie in confessional: “I really like Jeremy, the way he fought today and the way his emotions after sending his wife to Exile Island showed a true, a good heart. I’d have to say that if I had to choose one person to be my designated twinnie, it’s Jeremy. Everybody loves a firefighter.”
Next on Jeremy’s agenda was Missy. He asked her what she was thinking. She told him that he looked super honest. Jeremy said they needed strength and brains.
Missy also gave us a confessional: “Being married and divorced as many times as I have, you learn to listen to your gut and my gut tells me that Jeremy is good.
Jeremy gave us another confessional: “This game; it moves so much. The beginning of the game messed me up right away but I feel good where I’m at, right now. Everybody’s on my side. I’m the popular guy and everybody wants to date the Prom King so this is perfect, this will work out.”
I noticed that we only saw Jeremy making the rounds, none of the women talked to each other. We have to assume that, at the very least, Natalie and Kelley talked for a little while because Natalie said she liked the Farmer’s daughter but we were never shown their exchange and we didn’t see Missy talk to them either. While this is Hunahpu’s main alliance, the story was all about Jeremy and how HE plays the game. The opening segment didn’t lie: Jeremy is a player.
It was time to go to Coyopa and we were accompanied by a much more ominous theme. The happy percussions had been replaced by a mournful chant and a slower beat.
Josh was still enthusiastic, showing his amazement at being on Survivor and holding a machete. Baylor shared his amazement, saying he was also cutting a coconut.
Nadiya had the first confessional of this segment, telling us about the tribe doing the necessities. Josh and Baylor had a second exchange when he asked her if she was in school. That led to everyone revealing their age. Nadiya’s confessional continued: “It’s a young group: Wes and Baylor and Alec: They are the young group. Then it’s me Josh and Jaclyn kind of in the middle and the other dude (John who belched right then) is forty and dad (Dale) is like 55. Come on.”
Dale in confessional: “OK, like I’m 25 years older than almost everybody here... My biggest challenge on Survivor is that I am not used to being in a big group of strangers. That’s tough, but you always have to be looking for the positive in the situation. My first trip to the water; I put the lid back on and I looked down and there’s this little emblem and I know it’s not an idol but it could be useful someday. I have to look at some other way to get into that tribe pretty fast. I’m trying to get fire so we can boil water. It smokes but the humidity just won’t let that red coal going. The longer I sat there the more pissed off I was getting at myself. I’m supposed to be able to start a fire... I did it a thousand times with magnifying glasses as a kid growing up.”
Baylor solo: “We need fire so we have two groups of people working on two different methods: Dale is working on glasses and the sunlight which I’ve never seen before work. Then we have group two which is a couple of us just scrubbing and scrubbing and trying to get something.”
Dale had another confessional: “I broke my glasses in half and doubled up the lenses to double the magnification on it. I’m sacrificing my ability to see in the game later on so I can start a fire.”
Dale’s method worked which led to a confessional by Josh: “I have to be honest: At first, you look at the older guy in the tribe and you know that they are immediately a target. Dale is the one that saved us all. The very first thing that we really needed; he provided.”
John said that Dale was a badass.
Dale confided that he didn’t need to worry about the social circles as much anymore. “I’m the fire starter now. That pushed me up the food chain so to speak.”
A lot of Coyopa’s narration came from Nadiya, their first boot. That is quite odd because, while we always hear from the first boot, they generally talk about their predicament and aren’t used as the tribe’s narrator. Her departure leaves us with an empty position, unless what happens to Coyopa isn’t important to the overall picture. Their first scene didn’t tell us a lot about the tribe’s dynamics but it served to connect us with Dale, to show that Josh has a good social game, that John belches and that Baylor underestimated the wise older man.
We joined Val and Keith as they arrived on Exile Island
Val, in confessional: “First landing on Exile Island was a big shock. The core of the tribe is all bonding so if they want to get rid of somebody first, it would probably be me. On top of that, Exile Island friggin’ sucks...You are really left with nothing.”
Keith: “I’m thinking of playing Survivor, I’m thinking of taking it to the end and then, boom! I’m sent to Exile Island. I’m the first out of the shoot...me and Val. This ain’t the way I had this mapped out. I don’t even know my tribe yet. I don’t want to be here.”
After opening their urns, Val explained: “We each had a note and started to read it. I was so preoccupied with the fact that I had a clue to an idol back at camp that I didn’t even realize that his was blank.” She lied to Keith, saying that it was only about stuff at camp. Her confessional went on; “I think he expected that I would say: Read it. I wasn’t going to do that.”
Keith also had a confessional: “Mine was blank; the story of my life. I asked Val... but she kind of (?) around. If it has something to do with Val’s tribe, more power to her because I’m not going back to Val’s tribe. I’m going back to my tribe.”
The two started to get to know each other and Keith soon realized that he had something in common with Jeremy. He told Val that he and Wes were both firefighters.
Keith in confessional: “Just found out that Val’s husband is a firefighter. That is going to be a bond. That is going to be a big plus probably. When I get back to camp, I am going to check in with Jeremy and see where he stands but who knows? I don’t know what I am going to walk into going back there. Worst case: All eight of them hate me and that’s the end of my Survivor career.”
Keith’s confessionals were much more game oriented than Val’s. She only told us that she could be the first one voted out but he has a plan, he wonders about the tribe’s dynamics and he talks about taking it to the end. That, in itself, tells me that he could be in for a long Survivor career.
Hunahpu – Day 1
While most were away in the ocean, Drew and Jon were left to work on the shelter.
Drew gave us a confessional: “I didn’t really want to but I was kind of forced to step in and take control of the construction of the shelter. It was a lot of work... I hope the tribe appreciates the hard work and the effort that I put into the shelter. I was a successful model for the last few years. I’m not a big shot in Europe but I’m sure my face is around some different places, but I’m not here to be a model at all: I’m here to be a Survivor.”
Julie gave us the counterpoint in her confessional: “I’m not sure why Drew thinks he’s in charge. He is a little bit too arrogant; bless his heart. Being a woman and being who I am; dating John Rocker and he used to play in the major leagues, he is type A with a capital A so I understand the dude mentality and Drew: He’s just like a young dumb guy.”
That was an interesting juxtaposition of confessionals. Normally, the person giving the counterpoint is in agreement with the audience but here we had Drew completing what looked like a good shelter so maybe she appeared to get angry for nothing. Then again, the audience rarely connects with the models so maybe both were meant to be disliked. He is said to be the young dumb guy, she is presented as mean person.
Coyopa
Wes was telling Alec that he thought John was famous.
Wes, solo: “I have a suspicion about John the minute I saw him. I was like: I know that guy from somewhere. Then I realized he played professional baseball for the Atlanta Braves. That was my favorite team: Everyone watched Atlanta. That was when they were in their prime, you know.”
Wes then confronted John privately, asking him for his last name. John gave him a fake name but Wes wasn’t deterred and asked him if he was sure. John realized he had been made.
I found it funny that John used the name Wetteland because John Wetteland was also a famous relief pitcher but he played for the Expos and the Yankees (Mariano Rivera was his set-up man for a while) and was much less controversial.

John in confessional: “I was hoping to skate through this game and stay anonymous. I wanted to skate under the radar. If I am recognized by the other players in the game, I’m not going to lie about it because I haven’t had a lot of anonymity for the last 18 years of my life. Wes busted me. It didn’t take long...”
When John realized he had been made, he asked Wes to keep it under his hat. Wes agreed.
Wes solo: “He wants to keep a low profile. It was good. He’s from Georgia, I’m from Louisiana. I knew who he was. I felt like we had a connection. I played baseball so...”
In confessional, John told us what he thought of that connection: “With Wes knowing who I am; a secret like that being kept safe with him might not be such a good thing. The first council we go to, I will be a little jumpy. I may try to get Wes out.”
Contrary to their first scene, we had a little more strategy presented in Coyopa and it showed that John’s story is mostly about his identity but at least we are told that he has a plan about what to do to those who threaten to reveal his secret.
Coyopa – Day 3
The scene started with Baylor asking Josh about his eye. We soon found out that Josh’s left eye was very irritated.
Josh in confessional: “All of a sudden, my eye starts flaring up and now it’s just burning and constant watering. Survivor always throws a curve ball at you and all of a sudden, it’s like you are out in the middle of nowhere, where you are not used to it and you get this (points to his eye).” To his tribe, he said the episode’s title quote: “You have to suck it up and survive.”
Baylor empathized with the Broadway performer: “Ah! Josh’s eyes are so red and I hope that I don’t get what he has because it looks awfully painful. Now, he can’t even open them so not a good sign three days in.”
Josh realized it could have come from a plant. Nadiya agreed so the tribe removed all the leaves that they had used to make their roof.
Alec solo: “So, we’re figuring that the leaves we used for our roof have some kind of poison sap. So, we are working to remove that and get that away from our camp. We have poisonous sap, scorpions and there could be a puma running around here that I don’t know about. There are dangers that are far from anything I know in Florida around here.”
Let’s keep in mind that Baylor and Josh were on screen when Alec told us about the dangers lurking. It would be quite interesting to see if the pair eventually backstabs young Alec.
Hunahpu
The tribe got a visit from the Howler Monkeys. Jon tried to engage a “conversation” with them.
Jon in confessional: “I’ve always been a goof ball but I have a lot more depth to me than it would appear. Nobody here knows what is going on at home. Basically, in February, they found that my dad had a tumor in his brain... It’s not curable. I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about it obviously, I think I’m cried out about it. Knowing that my dad and I don’t have much longer to be together, it was very hard to make the decision to come out. But my dad is a big fan of Survivor and I wouldn’t have come without his blessings. I just hope that I can watch it with him and hope that I can make him proud out here.”
Those were two personal moments put one after the other to endear the players to the audience. It’s always good for a winner’s story to show their injuries. Over the years, many injuries have been ignored if the player getting them turned out to be unimportant so the eye irritation is a good sign for Josh’s longevity. Jon words also could be a sign that he will go far because we heard that he wants to make his father proud. That could be Jon’s journey.
The Immunity Challenge
Val and Keith received a nice greeting.
The first part of the challenge indicated that Jon and Wes were the two fastest out there as they were the first to finish the crawl race.
Jeff noted that Alec got hurt but we didn’t see how.
Rocker’s height came in handy when he put Baylor on his shoulder. She quickly untied all three bags, giving an early lead to Coyopa. Hunahpu had to use Natalie, Julie and Kelley for the task.
Quite stupidly, Rocker started throwing the ball instead of using the rope to get more leverage. He was lucky to see Keith’s technique which he quickly adopted, keeping Coyopa in the lead. Hunahpu had to switch pitcher as Drew took over and finally got the ball in the Y-shaped hook.
Running up the wall, Jeff noted that Jaclyn was “tentative” He added: “You cannot be tentative.”
Coyopa used Rocker as a human ladder to climb the third wall and get to their puzzle first.
As a note, Josh, Dale, Jaclyn and Alec worked on the puzzle for Coyopa while Kelley, Reed, Jon and Julie did it for Hunahpu. Coyopa’s first attempt didn’t fit and neither did Hunahpu’s. Coyopa started over but reached an impasse again. Hunahpu figured it out first and won immunity. During their cheers, I listened to find out who would get the credit, but all I could make out was a “good job, Julie”. That wasn’t enough to say if she was indeed the one that found the solution. It was presented as a team win. Jeff handed the idol to Natalie who wasn’t part of the puzzle team so she seemed to hand it off, probably to the person she felt was their MVP but the camera didn’t stay with her. It looked like she was passing it to someone on Reed’s left though and that’s where Kelley was standing.
Jeff then asked Missy how she felt seeing that her daughter was in danger. Missy said it was tough but she knew Baylor was tough and would pull through. Natalie also told Jeff that it was tough.
Once more, we are establishing the bond between mother and daughter as if it will turn out to be the one that will be stressed the most. Maybe we do have a repeat of what happened to Laura and Ciera or it’s just a tease.
As they left, Dale had a confessional: “It could very well be me going home. I would be surprised because I am the only one that can make fire, but I am the oldest guy of this damn bunch so you never know what’s going to happen.”
What will happen now Dale? Jeff gave flint to your tribe so are you still needed?
Hunahpu
It was interesting to see that the victorious tribe wasn’t ignored after their victory. When they walked into camp, Natalie was holding the idol so we still don’t know if anyone was considered their MVP.
Keith had a confessional: “I just rejoined my original tribe. First thing we did was the challenge and boom! Won that. Then, to come out here and see what they accomplished, it seems like they worked together. That’s a good thing. I didn’t know what to expect and I kind of worked my way in to this tribe, Since I’ve been gone, I’m going to try to slip in, to fit in a little bit, just now figuring out their names. I knew Jeremy and that was about it.”
It seemed that it was all he needed to know because we soon saw the two men together.
Jeremy, talking to Keith in private: “I wanted to talk to you because I owe you anyways... I pulled you out and I’m going to get you back in.”
Jeremy in confessional: “I saw Val, she told me she was alright so I knew Keith took care of Val. I don’t know how far that will take him but I feel I owe him something.”
Keith also had a confessional: “I got Jeremy kind of half-way on my side. I would think he’s a firefighter, I’m a firefighter, I mean firefighting is a brotherhood. Now the other seven; I have no idea about. Give me a day or two and we’ll figure all this out, see what happens.”

That was a very good segment for Keith. He slipped into the main alliance of the tribe but he isn’t totally blind to Jeremy’s game, knowing he is only half-way on his side. Hearing him say that he will figure it out is great for someone that could have been presented as a dumb player.
Coyopa
Josh and Rocker welcomed Val to the camp but it didn’t take long for Val to explore the area.
Val in confessional: “After losing, immediately I’m thinking that I haven’t been playing the game and my game may be over so as soon as I knew where the well was, which was part of my idol clue, that’s where I was going. I have got to find this idol.”
Back in camp, Dale asked “Natalie” to compare this to the Amazing Race. After correcting him on her name, Nadiya said that the main difference was the Amazing race tells you exactly what to do.
Dale in confessional: “Nadiya is a known element. She has been on the Amazing Race. She’s shown that she can backstab somebody. So, the rest of the tribe I don’t know about that. Nadiya; she’s proven it, we’ve watched it.”

He gathered the men and said that, while she’d be an easy target, he wanted to give Val a chance. Alec was quick to bring up Nadiya’s name. Dale agreed, saying that she U-turned people on the Amazing race.
Josh had a confessional: “Dale and the guys think that Nadiya should be the first one to go because she was on the Amazing Race. Of course, you say yes and then Nadiya approached me a couple of minutes later. I mean; anybody that comes to me I’m like “Thank God! You are coming to me” I wanted to be that person in this game; that was one of my goals: To be the person that people are coming up to me and saying I want to work with you.” That’s when Nadiya told Josh that she was counting him as one of the girls. Josh laughed but his confessional continued: “Nadiya said: “I was counting you as one of the girls”. My boyfriend can tell you that’s one of the worst things you can say to me but I don’t blame her. People stereotype people all the time so I am keeping my options open right now. I feel like I have a lot of choices.”
Meanwhile, Val gathered the women, saying she was on the chopping block so she wanted to make history by making an all-girls alliance. They agreed and Nadiya had a confessional to say that they had to stick together. She told the other women that they could have Josh on their side. Dale’s name came up as soon as Baylor asked for the name of someone they didn’t need because they would get fire that night.
Baylor gave us a confessional: “The plan is to vote Dale out because we don’t think he’s helpful (Right then, Dale was shown carrying a heavy load of vegetation, somewhat contradicting Baylor) in the challenges. If I don’t go with the women, I would definitely do what Josh is doing. I haven’t had a chance to talk to him yet about what his plans are, but I kind of want to hear from him first.”
Baylor told Josh the women were voting against Dale so he asked her what she wanted to vote. She simply said “with you.” He told her the guys were voting against Nadiya.
Baylor wanted to vote with Josh but little did she know he wasn’t going to vote with her!
Josh in confessional: “There’s a lot up in the air tonight and I do feel that a lot of that weight is on me. I think that I’m right in the middle between the guys’ alliance and the girls’ alliance. Being a fan of the show, this is a big deal but it is ultimately which one is going to take me furthest in the game. Sometimes, people with the swing vote end up in the worst position so I don’t know if I am going to really decide before Tribal Council which one I am going to go with.”
Tribal Council
John agreed with Jeff when he said that that the game moves quickly. John added that the blue team was probably having a fiesta while they had to vote someone out. He said the vote was tough because there wasn’t the obvious jerk to eliminate.

Jaclyn’s smile kind of hinted that she thought there was a jerk!
Asked about the vibe of the tribe, Nadiya told Jeff that they have been getting along really well, that they weren’t ready for this decision but that she learned to make the best of the situation.
Jeff equated that to making lemonade out of lemons but Nadiya preferred making Margueritas.
Jeff asked Josh if he agreed with her optimistic outlook.
Josh said it was vital to keep the positive spirit.
Nadiya told Jeff that Survivor was not like the Amazing Race at all.
Val told Jeff that her situation was stressful. She added that Exile had its blessings also, hinting that she found something.
Jaclyn told Jeff that the guys bonded well, particularly John, Wes and Alec.
Dale agreed that his age made him a target that it was tough to find things to talk about with the others. He told Jeff that he proved his worth to the tribe by making fire.
Asked who was at the center of the discussions, Wes said that Josh was the most liked member of the tribe.

That made the actor smile. Baylor also smiled in agreement.
Nadiya also agreed with that because Josh could go between the girls and the boys.
The smile briefly disappeared from Josh’s face.
Josh said that he didn’t believe it was four girls against four guys with him in the middle but that it could be.
After collecting the urn, Jeff asked if anyone had an idol to play. We saw Val looking down at her bag but she didn’t have any idol to show.
Dale received 3 votes, Baylor, surprisingly, got one, the 5 others going to Nadiya who probably set a record by being the first one eliminated on two different Reality series.
After snuffing Nadiya’s torch Jeff said: “I think the message is clear: You’re 0 for 2 in challenges, a third of the tribe received votes. This tribe is still finding itself. You got to pick it up.”
The camera was directly on Josh when he said that.
The Story
In Blood versus Water’s first edition, Tyson’s emotions after seeing his girlfriend get eliminated were presented as a major factor in his victory. We will once again see events that “test the core of human emotions” and the drama should revolve around our long term players. We will probably see the emotions of the players eliminated early only in their last few days on the show to leave room for the long term stories. Therefore, we should look at the players that have already established an emotional connection with the viewers to determine who should be around for a while.
The Characters
At least, these Players still have a pulse (while one or two of them could see their story pick-up in the upcoming episodes and make them long term players, their emotionless premiere wasn’t a good sign):
Jaclyn: After the introduction, we didn’t hear from Jaclyn and we know from Jeff that you can,t be tentative in this game. The events have put her in the minority on her tribe so she could very well be leaving early. There certainly wasn’t any investment made in Miss Michigan.
Julie: We found out very little about Julie. She was part of the four person team that completed the puzzle, we heard a “good job, Julie” so she may be seen as someone that was valuable by her tribe but, as far as we know, she wasn’t part of Jeremy’s five person alliance. However, did Jeremy wait for Keith to return to find his fifth or was there a mystery member in that group? Jeremy already has brains in his alliance so he’d need more muscle than Julie can bring. Julie’s presentation and her position in the tribe could lead to an early exit.
Drew: He had one confessional but it was mostly about his job as a model and his work on the shelter. Since it was presented after Jeremy had made his alliance, it gave the impression that Drew didn’t know this game very well. Watching his scene, I thought he should have spent his energy building an alliance first, the shelter next if he wanted to enjoy the fruits of his labour for a while. He could very well be the muscle that Jeremy uses though and then he’d become disposable.
Alec: Like Drew, Alec only had a brief confessional and that one told us that he wasn’t used to the dangers of the Nicaraguan jungle. Showing Josh and Baylor on screen while he said that made me think that Alec should forget the scorpions and the pumas and concentrate on the truly dangerous creatures out there, the ones that can vote.
Reed: Despite a great start, Reed was mostly a non-factor once separated from Josh. His only confessional was a narration about the beach and the work to be done. We will have to see if he becomes Hunahpu’s narrator which could give him longevity in the story but, for now, it doesn’t look very promising.
The one-note players (These players were given a role in the story but we didn’t really connect with them.)
John: There was some good news and some bad news for John after seeing how he was presented. The fact that he only had a small role tells us he probably isn’t in immediate danger. He could still go up in flames in the next episodes but, being the “star” of the season means the editors will make a big case of his exit and there was nothing to indicate that will come soon. The bad news was that such a light edit means he won’t be the story of the season. The only emotion shown by John was his fear of getting recognized and voted out. His paranoia could serve him well but we know that Wes isn’t an immediate threat to him. Despite the loss, John was quite useful in the first challenge so, with Coyopa being down one member, he should be safe. As a type A with a capital A personality, we have to say that he didn’t show any arrogance (yet) or any desire to lead his tribe at all cost which is very good for him.
Wes: His own father says he is as mentally strong as a rock so we can’t expect much from Wes. His position in the main alliance should keep him safe for a while but, like John, the story won’t be about him.
Natalie, Kelley and Missy: None of them showed us a lot of emotions but they were all part of Jeremy’s alliance so they each have a role to play in the story. It will be interesting to see Natalie’s reaction when she sees that her twin is gone. Could it lead to Jeff’s quote from the previews: “So, you want to quit”? I doubt it but it has been established that the sisters are always together. Now, Natalie is on her own so it will be interesting to see how she copes. Kelley could also find herself without a loved one soon so we should hear from her about her father’s chances but we didn’t in the premiere. Missy is in an alliance and so is her daughter so the game is set-up for a clash between the two.
The Players showing Emotions (this group should include our main contenders and one or two that will leave early)
Dale: The farmer received a very interesting edit. We saw him making fire. We heard him talk about his precarious position, we saw him thinking about using a fake idol to fool his tribe and we saw him directing the conversation that led to Nadiya’s elimination. Right now, he is in the guys’ alliance but the numbers tell us they could lose a member and still control the vote. With all the challenges that require women to compete against women, it’s dangerous to go down to 2 members so soon so maybe the vote will turn against Dale. If Hunahpu gets a nice numbers advantage then Dale could make it to the merge and become a very dangerous player because he wouldn’t be seen as a threat.
Val: It was somewhat of a disappointing episode for Val. Her tribe was going to face tribal council but we spent more time with Keith during their stay on Exile Island. The events dictated that we would see a lot of her so we can’t take her amount of airtime as an indication of longevity. Jeremy was the one showing most of the emotions so, while it was nice to see Val’s resolve, he should be the one outlasting the police woman.
Jon: He had a very intriguing presentation, one that could be described as the “sad clown”. In camp, we heard him making one joke after the other, even teasing the howler monkeys to make his tribe laugh. In private, he told us about his dad and his terminal illness. That is Blood versus water on a whole different level. I’m sure we all wished that they were indeed watching this together so that connected him strongly to the viewers. However, we didn’t see anything about his game. Jeremy said that the tribe needed strength so we can assume that Jon is safe for now but he doesn’t appear to be in the main alliance.
Baylor: What an interesting edit she received! When we saw her being frightened by the howler monkeys, I figured she would have trouble coping with the conditions but the camera work during Alec’s confessional put her in the predator category! Then Dale contradicted her when his method proved to be the better one at making fire. We saw her directing the conversation that led the women to target Dale then we saw her talking to Josh and telling him she wanted to vote with him. The votes told us that she did flip on the women only to allow Josh to create some confusion when he voted against Baylor! How will she react at that stray vote? The women will know she voted against Nadiya so she is forced to stay with the guys but one of them voted against her and she probably won’t know which one. I really hope they present the game from her perspective because it will show the intricacies of the game, how someone never knows who they can trust.
Josh: Here, we have a player. His eye injury brought him to our attention and then his strategy piqued our interest. Will we get an explanation for his stray vote? If he did it to put some panic in his ally so that she would depend on him even more, then he is a genius. If he reveals it to everyone or gets exposed for being duplicitous, then he is a klutz! Since we heard Jeff say that he is a true fan of the show then he should be able to pull it off and continue to be the players that attracts the others, that gets their trust. We already know he has an excellent social game so we could very well be looking at our winner. The only problem was that Hunahpu seemed to be the tribe of interest, the one the cameras showed first as if to attract our attention.
Keith: For someone that could have been presented as a country bumpkin, our other firefighter showed to be a very shrewd man. He knew that he could only trust Jeremy half-way but he did manage to wiggle his way into the main alliance. His presentation on Exile Island overshadowed Val who was herself presented as a character worth our attention. When Natalie said that everyone loves a firefighter, she was talking about Jeremy but it could turn out that Keith is the one that gets all the “love” in the end.
Jeremy: The Prom King was the player of the episode, winning the reward challenge for his team, crying over the twist that sent his wife to Exile Island, rallying the women of his tribe around him in a solid alliance and paying his debt to Keith by getting him his alliance. Like Josh, Jeremy seems to be the most liked and trusted player on his tribe. If Hunahpu can keep or even increase its numbers advantage, then Jeremy could be in an ideal position to win this game.

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
09-27-14, 09:30 PM (EST)

7. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

Bravo! Thoughtful, articulate, meticulous, comprehensive, entertaining and eye-opening.
I always feel as though I've just visited Survivor - backstage - after reading one of your weekly reviews.
Thank you!

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Tyrone Slothrop 13 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
09-28-14, 02:09 PM (EST)

8. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

Hooray! My favourite Survivor post-episode write-up, The Characters and Their Stories penned by the always-insightful Michel (and her Flowery contributor) returns with a vengeance!
Gracias, Danke, Merci, etc...

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-29-14, 02:33 PM (EST)

11. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

What fun, thanks Michel! Who's going to be Copoya's narrator now, I wonder if Nadiya got the air time because of her TAR experiences and she was a familiar face. I wonder if they did that to get their hype's worth from the twinnies? Either way she's gone and it will be interesting to see who comes through as the voice of Copoya. If no one, then you may be correct in assuming that whole tribe is a wash. I hope not, I need some mystery until the merge.
Well done and thanks for your insights.

I should be watched....closely.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-01-14, 06:17 PM (EST)

15. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

Thank you, Georgianna, Tyrone and Suzzee. I hope to read your impressions also.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
09-30-14, 12:44 PM (EST)

12. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

Thanks for all your work, michel. I love reading your reviews and assessments and you always amaze me with your insights!
I think that this season could very well turn out as the last B v W did in that once one of the pairs is out, the other person is perhaps not considered as threatening to move beyond. So, perhaps in my assessments, I will emphasize the person within the pair that I see having more substance. Sometimes though, it's harder to decipher who is important to the short term story vs. the long term one, especially in the beginning.
We did start out on the helicopter with first glimpses of some, then an intro on each pair. Jon and Jacklyn, clearly Jon got the sound byte, I would venture to say that he will be the one to outlast from this pair. Jacklyn, miss Michigan, is just for show, lol.
Next came John and Julie...he makes his case, and she makes hers. While she says she is independent, I bet she will be the one to get to prove it, most likely outlasting him, just as Monica outlasted her alpha male.
Then we had Missy and Baylor. I would place more money on the one that had to be maternal, Baylor.
Alec and Drew followed, with noting their sibling rivalry. My money is on the younger brother.
Next were Kelly and Dale, the farmer and his daughter. She got 2 sound bytes, she is younger and making her own way, I would bet on her outlasting him.
Josh and Reed were next and they had by far the most positive clip, making fire and catching crabs. They are players. Of the two, Josh was shown to speer the crab, he could be the one to outlast.
Then Jeremy and Val with their job rivalry. Clearly, Jeremy had a million dollar quote. My money is on him to outlast her.
Next were the twinnies noting that they have only been apart about 2 weeks in their lives...knowing they will be placed on different tribes will not be good for them...I don't know which one will do better?
Finally, we had Keith and Wes, the firefighters. Keith really seems quite salty and cutting...he's definitely going to be comic relief or is there a little villain in him? I don't know, but he does seem more of the character than Wes.
I whole-heartedly agree with your initial assessments of the intros, michel, on their neutrality, positive or negative. I do want to note however that the negative ones may not necessarily be bad for the couple as well. Just as Cirie was introduced to us as someone that couldn't get off the couch, and someone that was afraid of a LEAF, she certainly showed growth! LOL! So, cannot discount someone making a negative first impression! I also felt that Keith will be the comic relief, salty character of the season. I concur with the most positive first impressions going to Jeremy and Val and Reed and Josh. They had very very positive intros, and look like contenders.
Excellent catch on Jeremy striking the pose!
Then they arrive in the arena area, Jeremy loses on the rock/paper/scissors and is ready to go, then to find out it's his wife that he is competing against. She is game on, he "smokes" her and wins, sending her to EI, then he chooses Keith to accompany her.
We see them arrive first at their camp, Reed gets the initial confessional on arriving, and then Jeremy has a meaty confessional regarding his mixed feelings and how emotional he is at sending her to a bad place...thus the crux of the theme, having a real bond with a family member on the show elevates the emotions so much more, so much that it makes you consider playing a different type of game than if you didn't have a loved one with you...then, Jeremy has a significant quote and plan, "I have a good rapport with women, I get along with women so it’s time to go balls to the walls; it’s time to play.” Then we immediately see him go off to make alliances with the women....Kelly, Missy, Natalie. Done. He has a plan and he puts it in action. I'd say he is an alpha male and is going out to hand pick his tribe of followers. Is he playing a Tom Westman kind of game?
Later he adds the "old" man to the group, his fellow firefighter that went with his wife out to exile....sounds good, but I can't help but to think the alliances shown will rarely work out....it's a start.
Great catch, Michel on the musical introductions to the tribes. Upbeat and lively for Honeypoo, while a bit more serious at Coyopa....interesting. Clearly makes you think that Coyopa will have the struggles and perhaps more conflict and losses. Foreshadowing.
I agree that Nadiya was the narrator and it was on purpose that the confessional noting the age differences was placed here...clearly, the older will be siding together, while the younger do as well....at least that was my take. Then we get Dale's perspective as the very oldest, and he most prove himself. We see him going to the water and removing the decoration, clearly could be something to help or hurt him in the future, but he is a player and he's thinking. I like it! He ends up starting fire and proving his worth, and then later he makes a great target of Nadiya by noting her aggressive game play in AR. He is a force imo, but will the younger ones embrace him or look at him as a threat moving forward? Time will tell, but in the first episode, he was one of the stars on Coyopa, imo.
This tribe definitely has the characters. Josh does have a good social game and Baylor is a stand out, now that we know Nadiya is gone I would bet that Baylor or Josh plays the narrator? John will be interesting and I am sure controversial.
Next we had Val and Keith on EI. Val getting the clue and not sharing it....really? For the life of me I cannot think why she wouldn't. Making an ally on the other tribe can really help you in your future. What a dumb move, imo. And, soon everyone will know there are clues to be had to the HII on EI. Really stupid move on Val's part, imo. Keith appeared dumb to me, for not recognizing a clue when he partially sees one....really, he bought it was something to do back at her camp? Now who is the one that is mentally like a rock? Keith is going to be comic relief, imo...He did find out that Jeremy is a firefighter though, and we see the wheels turning there to get him an in later. Clearly, I also believe Keith is going to be around for a while!
Next we go back to Honeypoo where Drew is building the shelter and has the "I was a model in Europe" confessional. The shelter does look like a good one to me, maybe he is there to be a survivor? Then the confessional from Julie, calling him a young, dumb guy...will she be able to manipulate him, because she thinks she sees him for what he is? I don't know but I got the impression she will. Could these two be a conflict on the show?
Then we go back to Coyopa and Wes recognizes John Rocker. I look at Wes now as I did Woo with Cliff. John has a nice confessional asking Wes to keep it under his hat, if not, he may consider voting Wes out, just as the other baseball player from Cochran's winning season voted out the girl that recognized him...
Next we have the drama with Josh's eyes swelling up...I loved how you noted that Alec telling Josh about the dangers around the camp could be foreshadowing that Baylor and Josh could eventually vote him out and apparently end up being far more dangerous than those that he listed!
I don't know why else this scene was left in there, other than it really happened and Josh was able to take it in stride and to problem solve to effectively resolve the problem. Proving he's a real survivor?
I have to say I do like Jon, I loved his character, easy going, trying to have fun, seemingly making the most of the situation with a light heart, then having his confessional about his dad...clearly he could be a journey player, or he could have something to prove. I like his chances as a long term player.
Regarding the IC: Yes, Wes and Jon were scramblers, John R was able to adapt, I saw that as a positive, and Jacklyn being tentative was clearly a negative. (especially in contrast to her fast boyfriend, Jon). Kudo's to the puzzle participants for Honeypoo, clearly winning the game....Jon, Kelly, Julie, and Reed. Then Missy gets called out, I do have a premonition that these two could be just like Cierra and her mom, Laura, from the last B v W...maybe they will both make it to the merge?
I agree that the cameras went to the winning tribe first to see how Keith assimilated back into his tribe. I felt it was all about Keith. Keith has legs!
Now the pre TC drama at Coyopa. Dale mentions Nadiya's game in the AR, and when the guys are altogether, Alec brings it up. Then we see Nadiya come to Josh and tell him that she sees him as one of the girls, and Josh tells us later that that is the worst thing you could say to him....then we see Val wanting to make history with an all girls alliance. Clearly this is setting up Josh as the swing vote, and then at TC he alludes to it, which I do not see as a smart move. Josh was extremely perplexing to me. We have Baylor coming to him after the fact to tell him that she wants to be with him. Clearly he most have told her that he was voting for Nadiya, as she did. Then he ends up voting for Baylor....I clearly don't get that. The one girl that is seemingly in his pocket and he throws her a vote. If Baylor confides to the guys that she voted for Nadiya with them, then they will figure it out, that Josh's vote was not with them....throwing up red flags. I don't know why Josh wouldn't commit to either side, or was it that he didn't want to have a hand on voting out someone he did like? We'll have to see.
I also thought when Josh confided that he needed to go with the group that would be best for his game, were the boys really better for his game? I don't know?
Here are my take on the players and definitely I will compare them with their loved ones because I do tend to think that it will go the way of the first, that once a member of a pair is out, the other remaining person will probably last a while, at least they will have a better chance to make the merge.
Under the radar at this point, and then a positive or a negative vibe for them:
1. Jacklyn, Miss Michigan. Clearly practically nothing from her. On the wrong side of the numbers at Coyopa, and also a negative call out from Jiffy in the IC. Definitely think that Jon has it all over Jacklyn.
2. Alec: Of the two brothers I am kind of rooting for Alec as the younger, underdog. He's calling out dangers to the tribe, not recognizing Josh and Baylor could be the most threatening. On the right side of the numbers in his tribe.
3. Wes: Calling out John Rocker in private, saying something to the others about it. A sidekick perhaps? Between his Dad and him, my money is on dad!
4. Drew: The model turned shelter builder. Not much to go on at the moment. On the winning tribe.
5. Reed: Really nothing of substance, yet. Shown to be a survivor in the intro clips. Maybe his time will come?
6. Julie: really only one comment that had to do with John R, and assessing Drew. I do think she will outlast her counterpart.
Characters:
7. and 8. Nadiya and Natalie: They are so much alike, I really can't discern between the two. As prior stars in AR and AR All-Stars, they are celebrities in this season. Now that Nadiya is out already, I see Natalie as a longer term player.
9. John Rocker: Julie tells us he is an alpha with a capital A, and he tells us his background as well. He kept a low profile like he said he wanted to in the first episode, but we already know that the cat is already out of the bag, and the preview teases tell us that he's coming into the spot light in the next episode. John R is definitely going to be a big target, and as long as he's in the game, peeps will have a mighty fine shield. How long will they tolerate him? Clearly, he will never make end game.
10. Keith: I see him as a LONG term player. Clearly he's a character. He will definitely outlast his son, Wes. He's salty, not too observant, but he does have a plan. Could he be a villain? Perhaps, I don't know quite yet. He's going to do something that is the worst thing in Survivor history, can't wait to see what it is!
Players with longer potential:
11. Kelly: I almost put her in the under the radar group but she was the first one that Jeremy asked to be with him. She was one of the ones that completed the puzzle first. I think she will outlast her father, Dale.
12. Dale: While he was definitely one of the stars of the first episode, I think he will be out far before his daughter, Kelly. He showed that he knew he would be in trouble as the oldest and probably one of the least physical. But, he proved his worth by breaking his glasses and making fire. He also got the credit for moving the target to Nadiya. As michel notes though, now that they have fire, will he still be so vital to the tribe? We know, as Nadiya pointed out that the tribe will be divided into younger and older. My money is on the younger to outlast.
13. Val: She is a player but seems to be making all the wrong moves imo. She lost the RC, went to EI, got the clue, but didn't share it. When she returned she made bee line to the water area to look for the HI, probably not too inconspicuously! Then she wants to make history with an all girls alliance that failed. She is not going to be long for this game, imo. Jeremy appears to be a star, Val appears to be heading for a much earlier demise, imo.
14. Baylor: She is a player, and we are seeing her. She recognizes another player, Josh, as her number one. She has legs, imo. I do foresee a similar place as Laura and Cierra had....perhaps they can both make the merge.
15. Missy: See Baylor above. She is in the majority alliance, seems like a good player. No reason to see her in danger for a while.
16. Josh: Definitely a star in the first episode. Shown to be a Survivor with his BF in the intro. Able to tolerate an allergic reaction with his eyes. Wanted to be "that guy" that everyone goes to, and apparently was. Wanted to choose the side that would benefit his game the most so voted for Baylor? Surely didn't get that, but still a star in the first episode.
17. Jon: I loved this guy. Rolled with the flow, good sense of humor, seems very likable, on the winning tribe, definitely a challenge horse....and, he has substance and may be on a journey with his father having Cancer. Clearly, he will out last his GF, could he win? He seems more layed back than Jeremy...hmmm. If he ends up in an alliance with Jeremy, which I would bet he does, he could win.
18. Jeremy: The star and hero of the show. Definitely an alpha....volunteering to do the first RC, then being emotional about it. Actively recruiting hand picked recruits to align with. Yes, he's in the drivers seat, and Michel noted a very powerful image with Jiffy asking who will claim the million dollar quote. He could be a serious player and he could win.
Here are my picks to outlast their partners:
Natalie, Baylor, Josh, Julie, Kelly, Alec, Keith, Jon, Jeremy

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
09-30-14, 11:33 PM (EST)

13. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

LAST EDITED ON 09-30-14 AT 11:35 PM (EST)
Very interesting read, FP. I see you are even harsher on Val than I was but I do agree with everything you said about her. Your comments made me realize that she knew Keith would have a bond with her husband so sharing the clue with him could have indirectly helped Jeremy. Then she goes for the women's alliance, not even talking to Wes who is also a firefighter and therefore a potential ally. Big mistakes.
As for Josh, you don't think he voted against Baylor to scare her, to make her depend on him even more? I think he can convince her that dale was the one that voted against her. I saw Baylor as a possible dumb player. Like Ciera, she will be interesting but will kill her own game.
Finally, I don't believe we will end up with 9 singletons at F9. Remember, the couples alliance in the first BvW mostly failed because Aras stupidly voted Laura who came back and still considered going with the couples. Now, with 18 players and a very possible merge at 12 that means that, at most, 6 couples will be broken up, maybe less. That means a 12 person merger is certain to have at least 3 couples, an immediate voting bloc. They could very well take over the game.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-01-14, 08:52 AM (EST)

14. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

Hi michel! Thanks for the feedback, I always appreciate it. Regarding Josh....wow, I just don't know. I would be worried that she will talk to the other guys and therefore someone will find out that one of the guys was not with them. The first vote is always the scariest, I think, because you don't know who you can trust, and if people will indeed vote the way they say they are voting. Once people vote with you, I think it's a start on building trust and finding those you can count on.
Josh had someone that may not be the brightest person in the tribe, as you note, but she was clearly coming to him as someone she identified as wanting to work with more than any other person. He had a back pocket girl. And, to vote against her didn't make sense to me.
The guys initially won't worry too much who voted for Baylor, but Baylor will certainly worry about it, and forming a girls alliance, I would bet the girls will all want to get to the bottom of it too. The girls will assume that one of them voted for Baylor. So, I don't know, I suppose I would be too worried that others would find out about Josh's vote, and then it would expose to the others that he didn't vote with the guys, nor did he say what he was going to do, and he voted against the one person that seemingly was definitively with him. Risky.
It will be interesting how that unfolds and what comes out or what doesn't. Potentially, this could wake Baylor up...?
I definitely do agree that we will not end up with all 9 singletons. I was just venturing as to which one in the couple would outlast the other, from assessments after the first episode. I see Josh and Drew having a good chance to make the merge together as Missy/Baylor, maybe the Christy Brothers? This could get interesting! It would take guts for all of them to disengage from their original alliance mates, but it would really be interesting.... In a game of trust in others to get you to a certain point, how do you re-assimilate back in to a game with your loved one? The crux of the show...

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-01-14, 07:40 PM (EST)

16. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

"how do you re-assimilate back in to a game with your loved one?"
Maybe they do like Tina in season 2 like one of our RHAP bloggers proposed:
http://robhasawebsite.com/lessons-from-survivor-history-a-different-way-to-play/
To sum up: After Hatch had made everyone think that this game was made for villains, Tina convinced everyone that they had to show that "nice people" could win. Likewise, with Tyson's win showing that BvW favors the single players, someone could set out to prove that couples could also win and convince enough couples to go along.

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SuperGrover 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
10-03-14, 01:46 PM (EST)

19. "RE: Everyone Loves a Firefighter"

Finally, we caught up with the father, son team of firefighters as they struggled to make fire. Jeff said: “While Keith is nearing retirement, he is not yet ready to pass the torch to his son, Wes.” We heard that Wes lost the striker to make fire. Wes said that it was his time to shine but dad disagreed, adding: “You are about as mentally strong as that rock.”
That seems like an odd quote to include in a season where they are emphasizing how connected loved ones are, but I've wondered it it's foreshadowing. Didn't Keith and Wes break their flint--on a rock? Jeff commented that it's nearly impossible to break a flint--but they did. Maybe Wes is like that rock that doesn't look mentally strong and foreboding, but was able to break their flint.
I've seen a lot of posts discounting Wes. Is there any reason for this besides looks and stigma? He is fast (first of his tribe through 1st IC) and seems strong but able to stay under the radar. I thought it was interesting that his dad blamed him for losing the striker and then someone else on Keith's tribe is blamed for losing the flint. Maybe Keith, a firefighter is secretly trying to prevent fires from being started.
I'm a long time lurker who contributed a few times many years ago, but I don't have that e-mail account anymore and can't remember my name and password from back then.

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Deitaphobia 9 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
09-28-14, 04:26 PM (EST)

9. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Do we know if Jon's father is still alive? That could affect how much screen time he gets. If the father died while Jon was on the island, they're going to milk that for all it's worth.

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bbaper 39 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
09-29-14, 11:30 AM (EST)

10. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Check out this tweet from Jon:
https://twitter.com/MischNImposible/status/504028562585034754
I'd say his dad is alive and well.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-02-14, 03:15 AM (EST)

17. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

So he lied to us?

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-02-14, 11:49 AM (EST)

18. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Not necessarily - it's been a few months since the show was filmed so plenty of time for a recovery. The tweet above about the dentistry bit was on Aug. 25, so nothing conclusive about timelines.
His latest tweets show that his father is still fighting:
(from Sept. 27)
"Want to say thank you to everyone who has given supportive words about my dad. He's still fighting, and we're enjoying our time w him..."

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-04-14, 02:27 PM (EST)

20. "Episode2 The Assets:"

The recap reminded us of the important points seen in the premiere:
- We saw Baylor and Missy being scared by the Howler Monkeys.
- Jeremy and Val were forced to compete for reward because of the new twist with the loser heading to Exile Island.
- After winning, Jeremy chose Keith to join his wife.
- At Coyopa, relationships were already forming (we saw the exchange that led Wes to bust Rocker on his last name.)
- At Hunahpu, the tribe was getting all the details they could stomach. (we saw Drew saying: “Dude, I’m a (blank) genius » and we heard Julie saying that he’s just a dumb young guy.)
- At Exile Island, Val caught a break and got the biggest piece of information in the game: A clue to the idol.
- Hunahpu won the immunity challenge.
- Facing Tribal Council, it looked like it was the women (Baylor was heard putting the target on Dale) versus the men (Alec was the one shown pointing to Nadiya).
- A secret alliance between Baylor and Josh kept the vote up in the air. (Baylor was heard saying she wanted to vote with Josh while Josh told us he was in the middle of the guys and the girls)
- Then Jeff used these words to describe the vote: “At Tribal Council, Josh went rogue (we see his parchment with Baylor written on it) and Baylor voted for Nadiya, breaking apart the women’s alliance and leaving Val and Jaclyn all alone.”
It seems that these were the only important events of the premiere. We weren’t reminded of Wes and Keith’s problems with the flint, Jon’s concerns for his father or Jeremy’s alliance with Kelley, Missy, Natalie and Keith. While there is certainly time to revisit these stories, their absence from the recap has to make us consider that they weren’t as important as we thought. I must also note that Hunahpu wasn’t presented as the tribe of interest I thought it was. It was at Coyopa that “the relationships were already forming” while Hunahpu wasn’t credited with anything positive except for the challenge wins.
As for what was shown, I find it fascinating that the editors used the shelter building to paint Drew as a “dumb young guy.” From the press images, Hunahpu’s shelter looks very good so Drew should have been thanked for it. But then, it would have made it harder to show him as the dumb guy. I’m not saying he isn’t dumb but he does have skills that aren’t being presented.
In Coyopa, the two biggest players were shown front and center but it wasn’t as favorable as we thought for Josh. Jeff could have used many words to describe his vote but going rogue is very negative in a social game. I think it’s the start of a Villain’s story arc. We will have more indications of that in this episode. As for Baylor, she was presented as we expected: The tool that was used by Josh.
The Assets
Coyopa – Night 3
Arriving back at camp, Josh immediately pulled Baylor aside and revealed his vote: “Don’t get upset with me; there’s a method to my madness. I put your name down.” (Josh’s confessional was inserted here) “Tonight, I knew they were voting for Nadiya. I figured if I put your name down then there’s no way anything bad could happen. Do not be mad at me. (Baylor’s confessional was heard at this point) I’m so sorry for doing that to you but I feel like that actually made our alliance stronger.”
Josh’s confessional: “I voted for Baylor to further advance our alliance in this game. I don’t want the guys thinking that I was getting too close to Baylor, but I wanted to keep Baylor as an asset.
Baylor’s confessional: “Josh comes up to me. He explains to me that, apparently, it was a game move because he doesn’t want the guys to know that me and him are aligned. That was a smart move in a way but that was also sketchy and scary that he didn’t tell me before that he was going to write my name down. I really hope that I can trust him.”
For the second time, Josh had the title quote of the episode. When Baylor explained his move and said she still wanted to trust him gave me flashes of Trish and how she forgave Tony for all the sketchy and scary moves he did at her expense. As for Josh, I thought it would have been better for him to keep his vote a secret, that he would be dumb to tell Baylor about it but it was presented as “a smart move in a way” so that’s how we have to see it. However, as smart as it was, it did show Josh as being sketchy and making scary moves which describes the actions of a “Villain”. With respect to both the edit and the game, it is a bit early to be seen as sketchy and scary.
Hunahpu – Day 5
It’s seems that nothing happened in Nicaragua on Day 4 because we are already jumping ahead! A few more jumps like this and we will be at Day 39 by the end of October! It would all give us something new to do on Wednesdays which may not be a bad thing!
Reed showed his flexibility while Jon and Drew did some exercises to get ready for the challenge.
It led to Jeremy’s confessional: “We got Jon and we got Drew, and they are both like cartoon characters. Like, they are so crazy. I’m like: Are they listening to themselves? They are so happy and it’s like not real, you know what I am saying? Which for me is good because I know all the girls can’t stand them already.”
While Natalie confirmed Jeremy’s comment by saying that the weights that the guys were lifting wasn’t a big deal, Kelley seemed interested in the display of muscles.
Like Josh, Jeremy is seizing up his tribe and counting his assets. The difference between the two is that we heard that Jeremy is considered to be trustworthy and honorable while his targets are dumb players, not strong women like Nadiya and Val who, while they weren’t fan favorites, were appreciated by the viewers.
The scene changed when we heard Julie saying that they had lost their flint.
Kelley gave us a confessional: “I cannot believe that we lost our flint. Losing that is not good.”
It was soon established that Jon had the flint last so he gave us a confessional: “I learned that, if you are wrong, you admit it and you admit it emphatically so, not only do the people know: Not only does he know he’s wrong but he feels awful about it and he’s probably going to do a lot to make up for it. Is that accepted by everyone? I have no idea. I’m nervous about it, I’m very nervous about it.”
In the middle of the confessional, we heard Jon telling the tribe: “I feel like I’m J’Tia right now: Jon poured the rice in the fire, Jon lost the flint.” He then asked Keith if they needed flint to start a fire, to which Keith simply answered: “It helps.”
Compared to Drew, his fellow “dumb young guy” Jon shows us again that he has more depth. Jon should outlast Drew.
The Reward challenge
The camera focused on Natalie when she realized that Nadiya was gone. The tears soon followed. Missy and Julie, sitting next to her, tried to comfort her. Natalie told Jeff that she had always been with Nadiya.
Even if Jeff’s description told everyone that this wasn’t going to be a physical challenge, Rocker was quick to jump up, volunteering for his tribe and forcing Julie to compete for Hunahpu.
I smiled when John cracked his neck to get ready for the challenge like James used to do. Rocker will never be loved by the fans like China’s big man.
It was very satisfying to see slow-and-steady-Julie win against go-for-broke-John.
Julie wasn’t shown dropping her ball once but fell behind John a few times despite Rocker’s multiple restarts. What I found interesting was that Julie had at least one restart but it was edited out to make her look better. Look at the following vidcaps where she reaches the first pole at 9:06. Then, at 9:13 she is seen still a few feet away from that same pole. I don’t think it is an error in continuity where the editors simply mixed up the timing of the two scenes because in the first cap, Julie is holding her pole with one hand while she has both hands on it in the second like she did for the rest of the challenge. That means they intentionally cut the images where Julie dropped her ball. The same thing may have happened at the second pole which John was shown to reach first even if Julie had previously been well ahead of him. Could she have gone back to the start another time? I don’t know but what I do know is that hiding a player’s failure is always a very good sign for that player. We will have to see if there are more occasions like these for Julie. Maybe we will have to consider her as a contender despite her connection to John.
John didn’t smile when he saw that Julie had won. Instead, he showed his ignorance when Jeff asked how it felt to lose to his girlfriend: “Remove the friend part” he answered, “I am losing to a girl. I just got beat by a girl.”
Julie picked Jeremy to accompany John to Exile Island.
(She should have realized that, by sending the person who had just won the reward for his tribe, she was setting an example that could come back to haunt her. Now that she won a challenge, she could very well be the next Hunahpu designated to exile. Despite knowing in advance what would happen at the arena, Julie looked very troubled by the decision so that means the tribe hadn’t discussed the situation and how they should handle it. I think the tribes should determine who goes to Exile Island beforehand to avoid creating any fractures. If one of them has to go, it would be better to set turns in advance. They could use the old alphabet strategy and, like Sean, include a special clause: If you lose the reward challenge then we skip your turn because you already went to Exile Island once. It would be funny to see the return of that strategy!)
When Jeff told Hunahpu to pick up their fishing gear, Reed spoke up and asked if they could trade their bag of beans for a flint. Jeff found it funny that a tribe with 2 firemen would lose their flint but he thought half a bag of beans for flint was an uneven deal. He said they’d have to give up the whole fishing gear if they wanted flint. At first, the tribe said that they would do without flint but Jeff reminded them of the need to restart a fire after every rainstorm and that the payment would go up. Natalie and Kelley said they really needed the flint so they finally agreed to the trade.
Jon had a confessional: “Catching some fish would have been heavenly. Unfortunately, we didn’t get it because all we did was trade it for flint. Losing the flint was a pretty big mistake. It was my fault that we lost our chance at a fishing gear.”
Sally also made a big mistake in Panama when she lost the spear that could have helped La Mina catch some fish and Terry didn’t let her forget that she hurt the tribe but no one was heard blaming John. Is it the winning streak that made Hunahpu so forgiving? All I can say is that by not hearing anyone reinforcing the blame then the viewers are less likely to hold it against Jon.
Hunahpu
Just like in the premiere, we went to Hunahpu first.
We saw Missy tying the flint to her belt and we clearly heard a “Good job, Julie” this time. We even saw Jon giving her a high five.
Natalia was then seen crying again which led to a confessional by Missy: “I would have said that there is no stronger bond than between a mom and a daughter but man! those twins. Hoo! It’s really touching to see a tough girl cry, I want to help her.”
Natalie in confessional: “Nadiya got voted out. She is probably fine but it’s just that we are not together. That’s the hard part. Now, it’s very good motivation for me to keep my head in the game and compete hard so that I can at least go as far as I can.”
The editors don’t miss a single occasion to remind us of the bond between Missy and Baylor so it has to surface in a big way somewhere down the line.
Coyopa
Alec, Wes, Dale, Josh and Val were talking about Rocker’s past. Dale asked if he was the guy that was run out of the league. The others weren’t sure but Dale said he thought that that it was Rocker that gave the interview about the minorities riding the subway in New York.
Josh in confessional: “Just because John does things that I don’t like, it doesn’t mean that I don’t want to work with him because I think that makes him more of an asset to be used because he’s pissing off so many people already that yes! I want him on my team.”
This confessional furthers sets up the Villain edit for Josh. Many viewers must have been repulsed by the idea that Rocker could be dragged to the end as a Goat. Josh shows good strategy but he isn’t doing it in a really honorable manner. He isn’t surrounding himself with likeable players.
Baylor pointed out: “John and Jeremy on Exile Island.” Someone agreed with her intent: “It better be a big damn island.” Val looked worried.
Exile Island
It was Jeremy that gave the confessional: “Exile Island is not a happy place...It’s not a good place to be. Plus, the icing on top is that I am stuck here with John Rocker. I know who he is: He used to pitch for the Braves and everything.” In the middle of that confessional, we saw the two men reach the urns where Jeremy picked the “lucky” parchment. Jeremy’s confessional continued: “They were playing against the Mets and he was talking about Black people, talking about homosexuals. I can’t remember exactly what he said but I remember he said racist things. I’m not saying that John Rocker is a racist but you will say stuff like that and it will follow you for the rest of your life. You can change. Yeah! Sure but it’s still going to follow you. Now, I need him to protect my wife so I’m going to try to buddy up to him a little bit.” The confessional was interrupted so that we could see Jeremy sharing the clue with the ex-pitcher and hear him saying: “You protect Val, I will protect Julie.” The confessional resumed: “I threw out: You protect Val and I will protect Julie and it will be good. I’m just trying to give Val time on her side to work some magic but if she’s voted out, Julie is gone right after.”
From an overhead shot, we heard John agreeing to the deal.
We have to realize that, even if Rocker was present, it was Jeremy that gave us the confessional. Not only that, we also had the famous helicopter shot that has been used to show the winner a few times (Earl, Parvati and Natalie come to mind) This tells us that Jeremy is indeed a key character this season. Most of his story revolved around Val so he could be lost without her but Val knows him best and she thinks that it will motivate him even more.
As for John, we can wonder if he didn’t just seal Julie’s fate by agreeing to this deal so quickly. Maybe he said he’d do everything he could but we only heard him say that it was a done deal. A smart player would have told Jeremy that Val was in trouble, that he would try his best to help her but that it may be an impossible task.
The Immunity Challenge
Josh showed some confidence (or was it arrogance?) when he said that they would take the idol.
Having to sit out one member, Hunahpu hesitated between Julie and Kelley, finally opting to sit the girlfriend.
In the first round, Jaclyn defeated Kelley. Dale was hurt by that result while we heard Kelley saying: “Dude, she’s big” which set up their rematch nicely.
After a rough start, Drew beat his younger brother while Wes beat Jeremy. Val left little doubt that she preferred winning immunity over seeing her husband beat the younger guy! When Natalie beat Val, Jeremy showed he was a good husband because he only gave golf claps.
The stage was set for the big match: Jon versus John. The football player showed which sport had tougher guys. He knew that “the low man always wins” so he went hard and fast for John’s legs.
Jon’s victory over Rocker will certainly get him many fans amongst the viewers.
Jeff asked Rocker about his bloody nose but the answer was bleeped. He took Jon’s shoulder right in the face so he could have a broken nose.
Still with only a 3-2 lead, Hunahpu hadn’t won yet. It’s interesting to consider that many challenges have been cut short over the years. Many rounds were not shown to save time or to manipulate a player’s presentation. (The most memorable one was the gross food challenge in Samoa that didn’t show Natalie’s failure.) So why did we have to see 4 more rounds after this great match-up? There had to be important things left to show and those included the mother-daughter confrontation (even if it was pitiful to watch) and Kelley’s revenge.
The Missy-Baylor match had a big set-up, both explaining they would imagine facing an ex to get the right motivation but, as soon as mom split her kid’s lip, Missy gave up and Baylor had no trouble winning the point on the restart.
When Reed went up against Josh, we heard Drew yelling “come on Josh”. Jon had to remind him that it was Reed that was on their team.
That cemented the “Dumb Player” edit for Drew. Was he telling us that we should root for Josh?!
Reed won for Hunahpu before Dale beat Keith to tie the score again.
It was set-up: The rematch between Kelley and Jaclyn would be for immunity. Dale couldn’t even look. He told Jeff that it was Kelley’s birthday but that he had to root for Jaclyn. The birthday girl turned it around and won the final point. She received the immunity idol and a pat on the ##### by Reed.
That’s two challenges that Kelley won for Hunahpu. Even if she hasn’t received a lot of airtime, we have to consider that her tribe appreciates her and that she is very determined when it comes to challenges. Those are good points for her story.
If I was playing the game, this challenge would have told me a lot about the people in my tribe. I wouldn’t want to have Missy or Dale in my alliance because I know they would betray it in favor of their daughters. Maybe the players have realized that they can’t count on the parents as long as the daughters survive on the other side.
As they headed out, Val had the kiss-of-death confessional: “Somebody from my tribe is going home tonight and I am in a tight situation because I don’t have an idol and Jaclyn is my one and only alliance but I am prepared to make big moves to make sure that I stay in this game.”
Coyopa – Day 6
Rocker showed his disappointment by throwing the Coyopa flag to the ground.
Dale had a confessional: “The challenge was a kick in the butt. I mean it was probably one of the toughest things I’ve ever had to watch. I couldn’t have been prouder of anybody in my life than Kelley. She never quit. She was down, her tribe was down. She gave her tribe the win and, unfortunately, it was the wrong tribe.”
This confessional gives Kelley her due. The viewers know that she is a strong challenge player even if it comes from her father. Winners always get compliments from their fellow competitors so Kelley has to be considered as a contender.
In the middle of this confessional, we saw Dale asking Jaclyn how she felt. With a laugh, Jaclyn said that she hated Kelley but that it was only in the moment and that she would get over it.
Could this little moment have an effect down the road? Maybe we heard Jaclyn say she’d get over it because she and Kelley will team up later on. Let’s keep it on the back-burner and revisit it if and when the two women wind up on the same tribe.
Next, we saw John talking to Val and Jaclyn as they were getting water at the well. He was telling the police officer that it was a pleasure hanging out with Jeremy. She told him that he must have received a clue. John said Jeremy got the clue but that he shared. Val, either using John’s ignorance of the game or showing her own, said that she found an idol on the island and one in camp, adding she’d use them to save herself and Jaclyn.
Val, in confessional: “Right now, I am in a tight situation because I don’t have an idol. I don’t have anything. I am just lying. I have no choice: I have to play big or I am going home so save yourself and find it.”
John then gave us his thoughts; “Val is claiming to have two idols and I’ve seen the clue so I think that, at this point, I have to get off my ##### and start looking for idols.” He took 7 paces north of the well and started digging. During his search, the music editor gave us a rhythmic theme but it wasn’t very dramatic. When John said “Bingo” I doubt that many viewers cheered for him. (At least it’s a “Steven Tyler idol”; the weaker type of idol that makes you think you have it made but “Dream on”!) His confessional continued: “I found, at least, an extra three days in the game. Wear it with pride. It tends to be that the athlete types always make it right before the merge and then they are gone so maybe I would love to save this until the 4th or 5th council play it and take myself through the merge. This has bought me some extra time. Now, I need to figure out a way to protect Val.”
The last part of his confessional made me think that John could be blindsided at the 3rd council which is the next one we will see. Now that would be funny!
Going to Josh and Wes, he told them that Val claimed to have two idols and that she would protect herself and Jaclyn. He said they could put 3 votes on Val and three on Baylor. Josh seemed to have his doubts but he simply said that they had to keep them from knowing that Baylor was getting three votes.
John took another walk to the well with Val which got everyone’s attention. Of course, John told Val that she would get three votes and that Baylor was also getting three. He added that he was fulfilling his promise to Jeremy by telling her this.
John in confessional: “I did make a promise to Jeremy: If I want to ensure Julie’s safety, I’ve got to ensure Val’s safety so, she plays her idol tonight and she should be fine.”
How many idols does Rocker think there are? A new one for every player sent to Exile Island? Maybe one day, say by Survivor 39, it will come to this but, for now, production hasn’t totally lost its mind.
After John told her to play her idol, Val had a confessional: “This is like an Oscar winning moment: I don’t have an idol but it doesn’t even matter because three of them vote Baylor and Jackie and I vote Baylor: That’s five against Baylor. I know me and Jaclyn are safe.”
After they returned to camp, Josh had a confessional: “All of a sudden, John and Val walked off together. They’ve never walked off together. Those two? I want to know what’s going on about that and I don’t think he’s being honest with me. Splitting a vote is definitely risky at this point in the game because we do have people on our team that we wonder about sometimes. Tonight, what it comes down to is what I think is going to get me to the top.”
There is no doubt that Josh is the player to watch in Coyopa. That’s two episodes where he has given us the title quote and that he has received the last confessional before Tribal Council. We are watching his game just like we watched Tony’s game last time...at least that’s how it looks until it is Hunahpu’s turn to vote.
Tribal Council
Jeff first addressed Dale, saying the team was 0 for 4 in the game.
Dale told him they made a mistake with their line-up: Except for Baylor, they lost all the confrontations where loved ones went head to head. (That really only applied to Alec and Josh though)
Alec admitted that his pride, his desire to go up against Drew probably hurt their tribe. (It could be but still it would not be a certain thing. Drew would have likely beaten Josh but would have Alec defeated Reed? By saying this, Alec is implying that he would have.) Alec added that it wasn’t the first time they made the wrong decisions before a challenge.
Rocker showed some confidence: “At one point, it’s going to gel, it’s going to click and we are going to take one of these things and be right back in there mentally and physically.”
Jeff had doubts: “Josh; that works if time is not an issue.” (Jeff is saying that Survivor doesn’t have 162 games like Baseball...thank goodness!)
Josh compared their situation to a Broadway show that the audience hates. “What they do is they stop and they rework the show (If only Survivor had done this for South Pacific, Nicaragua, Gabon, etc, etc, etc...!) Josh went on: “They have an opening night with all the changes and they come out strong. We got to make changes to make us stronger.”
Asked how they could do that, Val said that it goes back to people trying to play both sides of this game. Even before Jeff asked Val for a name, Baylor knew that the comment was aimed at her.
Note that it could have also applied to Josh but his name wasn’t mentioned.
Dragging herself from under the bus, Baylor said: “I think Val has been out for me since she’s been on the island. She brought the girls together, we had a discussion and I chose to go with the guys.”
Jaclyn interrupted: “But you said you were going with us... and then you flipped.”
Val added: “You told us to vote for Dale. I hadn’t been there, I didn’t know anybody.”
Baylor tried to defend herself, saying she didn’t bring up Dale’s name but Val stood firm: “You told me to vote Dale, straight up, you told me to vote Dale right in camp.”
The recap had reminded us that Val was telling the truth.
Wes told Jeff that Val claimed to have an idol. A few people said they heard she had two. Wes said they had to vote for her to draw out the idol.
Val and Baylor told Jeff they expected to get votes. Baylor added: “It would be a shame to see some flipping happen now because of some crazy talk.”
It was time to vote and we saw John honoring his promise by voting against Baylor.
When Jeff asked if anyone wanted to play an idol, everyone looked at Val but she didn’t move. That really surprised John
The first vote ended in a tie
(Note that Jeff flipped the last parchment before reading Val’s name. Why doesn’t he do that also when the last vote is decisive? I mean, it’s OK if the vote is tied before he reads that last one, but when the vote is 4-3 with only one left and he stupidly says: “The second person voted out...” it tells us immediately who he means. It would be much more exciting if he’d always flip that last parchment, silently letting us realize its implication. )
With only 4 votes on Val, that tells us that one guy, most likely Josh, flipped and voted against Val to block John.
On the revote, John voted against Val and he was angry: “I told you to play your idol... Now, I’m going to look like a liar to your husband.”
After snuffing Val’s torch, Jeff said: “There is nothing that I can say that is going to help you. You haven’t won a challenge. You’ve lost two tribe members. Something has to change quickly or, one by one, you will be out of this game.”
Despite the fact that Jaclyn is the one that is isolated and in immediate danger, the camera focused on Baylor and Josh when Jeff said those words. While Jaclyn may benefit if the tribe indeed changes their plan, it seems that there are only two important players here.
The Story
The roles are set: There are only two players with a plan this season at least only two that get to tell the audience about their strategy. All the others are either assets or targets. Things can certainly change but it would seem that we are going to witness a contrast in approach to the game: Josh being sketchy and using scary moves versus Jeremy who is honorable and trustworthy. The interesting thing is that, with Loved Ones, it isn’t only a numbers game. Will the strategists realize that some of their numbers won’t stay with them if given the chance to join their Loved Ones? Dale and Missy have to be considered as liabilities but Reed is also a dangerous player for Jeremy and he hasn’t told us what he thinks about him.
That shows the flaw in this format: Winning immunities isn’t ideal. If they were to merge right now, Hunahpu doesn’t have a target. Even with a 2 player advantage, they couldn’t target any Coyopa without running the risk of seeing one member flip. Coyopa could go after Natalie and Jeremy without hurting the feelings of anyone in the tribe. To further illustrate the problem, suppose that the players merge right now and that Hunahpu targets Rocker. They run the risk of Julie tying the vote at 8-8. On the other hand, if Hunahpu were to lose a challenge before the merge and boot Julie then they would have a much safer majority of 8-7 against Rocker. Of course, the problem would then return at the next vote!
The Characters
The Dumb Players:
Wes: Besides his win over Jeremy in the immunity challenge, the only role that Wes played in this episode was to tell Jeff that Val had an idol or two. Nothing was done to change our impression that he is the dumb kid that lost the striker. He is part of the main alliance in his tribe so he could be an asset for Josh but not for us who like a good story. There is nothing that hints he will play a big role down the line.
John: The game is simple but you must know how it works if you want to have a chance. After finding the idol, John should have realized that Val couldn’t have one, never mind two. Knowing that, John only had two ways to save Val: Give her his idol or invent a story that they needed to keep her, that they would have Jeremy on their side if they did. Since he didn’t do either and since we didn’t hear him tell Jeremy that it could be impossible to save Val, then John may have ended Julie’s game. His own game died when he was recognized. He is probably suffering from a broken nose and he should realize that no one would ever vote for him in the end so the question can be asked: Is John the one that quits? It seems unlikely but I wouldn’t say it’s impossible. There were also his words that he would like to save his idol for a council just before the merge. It sets up a nice blindside for the next council.
Alec: His desire to compete against his brother probably cost his tribe the win. He should have known that Drew would win the physical confrontation so maybe he should have gone against someone else. While he is a valuable vote for Josh, Alec doesn’t being much to the story. He will most likely get eliminated without any fanfare. Just a number to discard.
Drew: The shelter that he built looks like one of the best we’ve seen, at least if we only consider those that were built without a tarp or a warehouse full of lumber and tools. Yet, it was his work on the shelter that was used to make him look dumb: Besides Jeremy and Julie’s remarks, we saw him wondering where everybody was while he was hard at work on the shelter. It told us that his hard work had simply made him miss out on all the alliance talk. Drew is presented like a cartoon character and it’s unlikely that his story will change.
Jon: On the surface, the guy with the jokes made a dumb mistake when he lost the flint and his tribe doesn’t take him seriously. Jeremy even called him a cartoon character. His huge win over Rocker may have changed that perception though. Hunahpu will certainly keep him around to go up against the ex-pitcher in future challenges but will he ever be part of their plans? Of the four dumb players, he is the one that has the potential to turn things around.
The Unreliable Ones:
Reed: I put him here simply because we have no information on him. He was included in the warm-up scene with Drew and Jon but not in Jeremy’s comment about it. The only thing we can say is that Josh is a much bigger character so it would be much more likely to see Reed flipping sides, becoming one of Josh’s assets instead of it working the other way around.
Missy: It became apparent that, despite her fighting words, Missy would never intentionally do anything to hurt Baylor. That means that asking her to vote against her daughter and anyone in her alliance will not work. Therefore, Missy has to be voted out before any tribal changes. The fact that we keep hearing about the bond between her and Baylor tells us that she will survive to be reunited with her daughter though and that could be fatal to Jeremy’s alliance. Missy will certainly be an asset for one side but which?
Dale: Then again, if Missy flips to Josh’s alliance, then Dale could flip to join Kelley and Jeremy, making it a wash. It was clear that the challenge was painful to watch for Dale. He said he was rooting for Jaclyn but everyone saw that his heart wasn’t in it. That, in itself, should have put a target on him. I can understand that you don’t want to target a tribe mate just because he cares for someone on the other tribe when you have a Loved One there also, but it became obvious that Dale would fall on his sword for Kelley, making him a liability. It was strange that no one brought it up but maybe it was done to hide the next vote.
The Players that are in Danger:
Jaclyn: She is completely isolated in her tribe and the editors haven’t presented yet her as the likeable underdog. We only heard her calling out Baylor during Tribal council, telling Jeff how the cheerleader flipped on them. The tribe needs a change and that could be Jaclyn’s way out of trouble. Right now, there is little doubt that she would use the first chance to flip on Coyopa and go with Jon’s tribe but there is still time to recuperate her. Jon, being quite the athlete, is likely to make the merge so Josh could change plans and get Jaclyn on board with the ulterior motive to flip Jon. The challenge arena discussions can reveal a tribe’s dynamics so maybe Coyopa realizes that Jon, while needed for challenges, isn’t included in the main alliance. Despite her precarious position, she didn’t get the typical spike of confessional that tells us she is in immediate danger. I think there is more to Miss Michigan’s story.
Julie: My two favorite moments of the episode were John’s defeats so I applauded Julie’s victory. We don’t know what her status in the tribe was but the easiest way Jeremy will have to make John pay for Val’s elimination will be to vote her out. It would be a shame because she did nothing wrong in the game except for her choice of partner. As for her social game, we can’t say she did anything right either because we simply haven’t seen her talk with the others. The only positive moment for Julie came in her win over her boyfriend when it seems that the editors hid her failures to present her as a slow-and-steady player. I have to say that this manipulation makes me think Julie also has a future in this story.
The Assets:
Keith: The Fireman didn’t have a good follow-up to his solid premiere. For now, he looks like nothing more than a vote for Jeremy.
Baylor: The cheerleader continues to have a complex edit. She should be seen as a villainess, the one that caused Nadiya and Val’s elimination. In the premiere, she chose to go along with John, an unlikeable person, Wes and Alec, the tribe’s own cartoon characters. The audience must have cringed when Baylor and Josh didn’t go with the girls and many must have enjoyed seeing Baylor getting thrown under the bus by Val. Yet, there is enough care given to Baylor that she can’t be totally disliked. We could have heard her saying only that she wants to trust Josh but we heard her also say that she sees him as being sketchy and scary so she isn’t a blind follower. She also beat her mother after getting injured. Personally, I found that confrontation to be a complete waste of time but it did reinforce the bond between the two and showed her as being, for lack of a better word, spunky. I see a poor version of Ciera but I think the editors are trying really hard to make the shoe fit.
Natalie: At least, she didn’t only cry about her sister’s elimination. She did say: “it’s very good motivation for me to keep my head in the game and compete hard so that I can at least go as far as I can.” Still, there is a lack of plan in those words. I’m sure she must have been thinking that she would find out who went after her sister and make them pay but Natalie isn’t one of our strategists this season so that part of her confessional was dropped. With Jeremy, that makes two members of Hunahpu’s main alliance that are now singles so I wonder if we will see Kelley and Keith’s Loved Ones also get voted out. Jeremy’s alliance talks had a strange presentation so it could be that it was done that way to show that the members aren’t really tight. The merge could very well confront Jeremy’s singles going against Josh’s paired players with Baylor and Missy caught in the middle.
Kelley: While we didn’t hear much from Kelley, her only confessional being about the lost flint, I think this was a good episode for Kelley. The birthday girl certainly didn’t get the same level of attention that Danni did when she celebrated her birthday in Guatemala (I still wonder how she got production to agree to that) but we did hear that she made her father proud and saw that she was good in physical challenges. Of all the players that have been reduced to the role of assets, I think Kelley has the best chance to turn things around and use her leader’s hard work to her advantage. We didn’t see how Jon reacted when Kelley defeated his girlfriend so maybe there is something being deliberately hidden there. Could Kelley be instrumental in bringing Jaclyn over? Time will tell but we have to keep our eyes on Kelley. While Jon, Julie, Baylor and Jaclyn are also possibilities, Kelley could be the one that has the story of a winner hidden behind the big characters.
The Strategists: If this season’s winner is another big character, then it has to be one of these two.
Josh, the sketchy leader: By losing all these immunities, Josh is turning into the leader of what we can call the “Blood alliance”. Everyone in his alliance still has a partner on the other side so he will not be without resources no matter when the merge happens. In fact, Josh’s best strategy could be to eliminate those that lose their Loved One if Hunahpu ever goes to Tribal Council. The game in Coyopa is strictly presented through Josh’s eyes and only Baylor, his closest ally, is aware of his actions. John thought he had outwitted Josh and saved Val but Josh was clearly one step ahead. His next step could very well be to force the pitcher into retirement for good.
Jeremy, the respected leader: The next few episodes could put Jeremy at the head of a “Water Alliance”. Along with Natalie, he also lost his Loved One so he will have an extra layer of motivation to go after Coyopa. Will he make the mistake of going only after John? The road to the end is filled with potential obstacles for Jeremy, the biggest being that no one on the other tribe is a safe target. Will he see the dangers that Missy and Reed represent? While Josh is already presented as being well in control of his tribe, I think the fact that Jeremy’s situation being more in doubt makes him our best contender for the title of Sole Survivor...for now!

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DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-05-14, 10:10 AM (EST)

21. "RE: Episode2 The Assets:"

LAST EDITED ON 10-05-14 AT 10:19 AM (EST)

Excellent read, michel! Very interesting indeed, and it will be so interesting to see how this is going to unfold! Love your ability to really see things, including possible omissions in the editing. It all adds up! Thanks!
Okay, my first thoughts post show are that the Coyopa Tribe is the new Crap for Brains Tribe....I’ll explain further as we go.
The intro was interesting. Jiffy reminded us that we started out with 9 pairs of loved ones, then touted the new twist of competing against your loved one for reward, noting that Jeremy wins. Wouldn’t that be something if Jeremy were the winner of the show....all spelled out for us in the very first intro. He goes on to tell us that Keith goes to EI with Val, and that relationships were forming at Coyopa, John and Wes, and we hear John note that, “he busted me”. Thus, begins the story arc for John Rocker.
I don’t see it as Coyopa is more important to the story of the season, I see it as Coyopa is more important to the story right now.
He continues that Val got a big piece with the clue, and Hunahpu won the IC, and it looked like the tribe divided between women vs. men but because of “one relationship”, Josh went rogue and Baylor voted for Nadiya, breaking up the woman’s alliance and leaving Jacklyn and Val all alone. Pretty much sets up the very next boot, nice and neat right in the intro.
We immediately see Josh explaining why he went “rogue” and voted for Baylor. She had a nice confessional at the end of it saying she understood but it was “scary and sketchy, and she really hopes that she can trust him”. Well, I think the lights are on, but I still don’t know if anybody is home. Clearly, she is sticking with Josh...And, Josh, he is at least for now seemingly the puppetmaster in Coyopa.
At Hunahpu we see Reed stretching in a very extreme way, and then Jon, the resident meat head is lifting what appears to be a tree stump...then Jeremy has a confessional which sounds like a narrator: “We’ve got Jon and Drew and they are like cartoon characters...I know all the girls can’t stand them already”, as we see Natalie give them some sh!t. Interesting that the camera focused on Reed and Jon, but Jeremy called out Drew and Jon. Why not say that Reed is a cartoon character, after all, he was the one that played Spiderman?
Then the girls look for the flint and cannot find it, noting that Jon had it last. Jon has a nice confessional that if you do something wrong you need to own it, if you are wrong, admit it. He joked around that it was like he was J’Tia right now as if this was as bad as pouring the rice out...we then hear him ask, “Do you need flint to make fire?” and comic relief, Keith, responds, “It helps”.
While Jon may come across as a meathead, I think the confessional that he had about his dad and now this one saying when you are wrong, admit it, shows he has more substance. I think there is more to this one than just a pretty face. If Jon turned out to be a winner, this is definitely someone underestimating him, perhaps....?
Next we have them arriving at the “hero” arena and they see that Nadiya has been voted out. Natalie cries, and she hasn’t cried in over 10 years, she notes that she and her sister have been together for 28 years.
Rocker, Rocker, Rocker. Certainly not the brightest player. Does rock/paper/scissors and wins and gets to choose who does the challenge, and he decides to do it. Now, sitting in the arena I assume they can see it. He can see the lay out that he will have to manuever UNDER poles. He was the tallest guy there, so likely the worst possible candidate to do this challenge....or, did he choose to go against his GF and give it to her? Clearly, this was not the best challenge suited to him.
EXCELLENT noting that Julie most likely had to start again as well, michel. However, I don’t know that it means she’s going to be an end game player, but I see it as they needed to make John look like a fool that he was for hastily volunteering for the duel that least suited him...his ego is getting in the way of his game. (I might add here that not only is Rocker being shown that he does not think before he acts and that directly leads to failure, later in the show Jiffy gets Alec to admit in TC that they don’t play strategically and they fail to discuss prior to going into challenges....this all underlines to me that the big guy, John, is the one that reacts instead of uses his head and that it’s leading to the demise of Coyopa. What will happen to this tribe when they are finally able to get rid of Rocker? That’s the question!)
Julie wins and chooses Jeremy to go with him, she states it was unusual for her to win vs. John, but John is mad he lost to a girl. After the challenge, Reed raises his hand and tells Jiffy they would like to barter for flint, they want to trade their old beans in for new flint...Jiffy admonishes them, and they end up getting flint but no fishing prize...it ends with another nice confessional from Jon, how it would have been huge to get the fishing gear, but it was his fault...owning it again!
Then, they go back with the winners and congratulate Julie, but it is more focused on Natalie. Missy has a confessional about how close twins are. Missy is the maternal voice in this season and appears very empathetic to her peers, a good quality, just ask Tina. Natalie has a nice confessional: she got voted off....good motivation for me to keep my head in the game and at least go as far as I can
With Nadiya gone, Natalie’s stock has just gone way up, her confessional could be forshadowing...
Back at Coyopa, they are talking about John being run out of the league by talking about ethnic issues in front of Val, we see her interested in what they are saying. They are not talking well of John, but Josh tells us in confessional that regardless if they don’t like him, he still wants to work with him. Josh is a player, knows he’s a great shield.
At EI, Jeremy continues narration telling us how desolate EI is and that it’s not a happy place, the icing on the top is that he is there with John Rocker. He knows him. Jeremy gets the clue and he shows Rocker, a MUCH smarter move than Val made, and contrasting with Val’s game. Jeremy has strategy, something that clearly Rocker lacks...“You take care of Val, I will take care of Julie”. “Done and done”, says Rocker. If not, Julie will be toast.
Nice pick up on the helicopter shot but I also see that as a way to isolate the players on EI. It was used extensively for Ozzy. I also remember the shots of Coach on EI, Tocantins, basking in the sun in his yoga outstretched arm pose. I think it was used alot in that sandy area in Tocantins. I agree though that so far Jeremy is a key player.
Next we have the IC, which Jiffy loves because it underlines the crux of the season, loved ones vs loved ones. We have brother vs. brother, boyfriend vs. boyfriend, and mother vs. daughter....so hard, Baylor cries because her mom smacks her in the nose, but Baylor outlasts her on the platform, will she outlast her in the game too?
Rocker being defeated by Jon got a “wow” from Julie. Interesting to note that Kelly lost the first round to Jacklyn but then won in the end when it counted even though she “was big”, Dale notes, it’s her birthday...also interesting that Wes states, “clash of the old guys” when Dale and Keith go at it....underlying the young vs. old division in Coyopa. One hundred percent agree, the “kiss of death” confessional after the IC goes to Val. She’s going to be toast!
Now comes the good part, back at Coyopa...John walks off with Val, while EVERYONE notices, and tells her that he enjoyed spending time with Jeremy, and she says you probably got a clue to the idol, he tells her no, Jeremy did and he shared it with me...we looked there but didn’t find it. Now, bright Val says there are 2...John now has a confessional about how he has no idols and better start looking for one, so he does. Did anyone notice how EASY it was for Rocker to find it....under the rock, and then very shallowly placed, there was no digging involved. I’m surprised the rock didn’t have a neon sign painted on it....clearly it seems to me that production wanted Rocker, the villain, to find this idol, just as they wanted Hantz to find it...ugh. Rocker has the confessional about it: “I found at least an extra 3 days in the game..wear it with pride, .the athlete types usually make it to right before merge, this has made me more time in the age, now I have to figure out how to protect Val”.

John concocts a plan and goes to Josh, the go-to boy, and tells him that Val told him she has 2 idols, one for her and one for Jacklyn, so they need to flush an idol and split votes evenly between Val and Baylor. Now this is where I start to get confused....Josh in conf: “If she does have 2 then one of us 5 guys is going home, so the only other way around that is not letting them know that 3 votes are going to Baylor”.
Then we see Val and John go off again...”We are splitting votes tonight, 3 to you, 3 to Baylor”....then it splits into a confessional from John: “I told Jeremy I would keep Val safe, I made a promise to him, so if she plays her idol she should be fine, I will keep her safe and he will keep Julie safe”...then we see him telling her to play her idol, and she says, OK. Then Val in conf: “I mean this is like an Oscar winning moment, I don't have the idol but it doesn't matter because if 3 of them vote Baylor and Jacklyn and I vote Baylor, we are safe”.
Val is the dumbest player of all time and clearly, from her actions from last week we should have noticed she wasn’t long at ALL for this game. All she had to do was to tell Rocker, she didn’t have the idol, and there would have been a different plan. Clearly, Josh and John knew that she and Jacklyn would be votes for Baylor...what was she possibly thinking with the 2 idols and I have them both lie? And, Rocker, come on, do you really think there are 3 idols available to your tribe only? I just cannot believe these people...Val deserved to go and imo is one of the worst players ever. Clearly John must have spoken with Josh to vote Val out if she didn’t play the idol....he was exasperated perhaps with her. Meanwhile through this we get yet another confessional from Josh telling us he will do what’s best for his game....hmmm?
At TC Alec made a nice point about their tribe not playing strategically and failing to discuss before they go up against the other tribe, a contrast to his brother in the other tribe being called the dumb guy. (Rocker being the poster boy for wreckless moves and no strategy whatsoever in challenges). Val calls out Baylor at TC, people trying to play both sides, and Val says that it was Baylor that told them to vote out Dale. Wes tells Jiffy that Val says that she has two idols and they want to draw one out...Baylor says it would not be good to see flipping because of some “crazy” talk...and they vote.
It’s a tie, then they revote minus Baylor and Val, and Val is out. Rocker says that she made him look like a liar to your husband....the arc is peaking and Rocker is in the spotlight.
Jiffy tells them that something has to change or they will all be out one by one....hmmmm.
So, to sum it up: Coyopa = Crap for Brains, Val = Crap for Brains, Rocker* = Crap for Brains, arc is climbing, clearly the villain, but now a villain with an HII. Josh = Coyopa puppetmaster, sees Rocker as a shield for himself. I agree with michel, setting up to be the villain behind the villain! Alec = smarter than Drew, Dale = expendable, Baylor = pawn, Jacklyn = she’s big and on the wrong side of the numbers, could being “big” help her? Expendable.
*Rocker: He’s an ex-professional athlete, he’s a big a$$ beast, he’s got a controversial past, he’s wreckless, he has a mouth....does sound like the perfect shield, but will he be the demise of his entire tribe, one by one as Jiffy notes? Apparently, Josh will be the one that determines Rockers fate, and right now Rocker has an idol, and he has Josh.
Regarding Hunahpu:
Jeremy: key player, alpha male, narrator, majority alliance. Shown in contrast to his wife...he is strategic and so far successful, while Val tried to be strategic but fails miserably. Natalie: stock rising, majority alliance. Missy: mother, empathetic, good social game, majority alliance. Kelly: a beta, follower, good in challenges, majority alliance. Jon: physical threat, depth, forthcoming. Drew: young, dumb? Reed: not called out by Jeremy as young, dumb, cartoon character, but shown to be. Shown being the one to ask Jeff about their pathetic deal, UTR. Julie: in jeopardy? Keith: UTR after good start. “It helps”.
A note to contemplate, one that michel so eloquently refers to in his assessments. The big difference in the B v W seasons in regard to regular seasons is that even if your tribe is being obliterated, you still have ties to the other tribe as long as your loved one is still in the game. Totally makes it a different game. Clearly, this must give Josh more ammunition to play boldly, to insist on keeping the Rockers in the game.

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-06-14, 03:09 PM (EST)

24. "RE: Episode2 The Assets:"

Hi ya FP! Nice summary.
This: the athlete types usually make it to right before merge,
Oh boy, you mean we may have to watch the Rocker show for a few more TC's?

BTS Bloody Hell 2

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-06-14, 07:50 PM (EST)

25. "RE: Episode2 The Assets:"

I really liked to read your thoughts, FP. Loved your spiderman reminder so much that I used it in my LVOE list. You should join us with your list in Aruba's Bashers thread.
The "crap for brains" tribe does have a smart player leading it though. If Josh really wants to play boldly then he will boot Rocker ASAP. If he is intent on leading a "Blood" alliance, his best move could be to get rid of the player everyone hates. After seeing the tension between the pistcher and Honeypoo, Josh should realize that it will be easier to get Missy, Drew or Jon to flip if Rocker isn't on Coyopa anymore.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-07-14, 07:23 AM (EST)

26. "RE: Episode2 The Assets:"

LAST EDITED ON 10-07-14 AT 07:25 AM (EST)
The "crap for brains" tribe does have a smart player leading it though.
Make no mistake, michel, Josh is NO Spencer, imho. While he is shown to be a "player", I don't think at this point the average viewer would classify him as smart. Voting to boot his back pocket girl in the first vote, then the second vote?? If Val had 2 idols then Baylor would have been toast. He is making moves that are unnecessary, imho. He seems reckless to me. So far it has turned out in his favor, but I am not quite ready to call him smart. Just saying',
You do, however, make a great case to boot Rocker. Seems like Rocker just may be going sooner rather than later???

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SuperGrover 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
10-06-14, 12:48 PM (EST)

22. "RE: Episode2 The Assets:"

I just saw this on an Entertainment Weekly preseason intro to some players: Reed Kelly compares his partner to one of the most famous people to ever play Survivor: Facts of Life star Lisa Whelchel. “She was so great with the way she played,” says Kelly. “And the way she carried herself in the game was from such an honest place and a place of faith, which is very Josh, so I think that would be a great person to compare him to.”
Honest? A place of faith? That doesn't seem like the Josh being portrayed so far!

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-07-14, 07:28 AM (EST)

27. "RE: Episode2 The Assets:"

LAST EDITED ON 10-07-14 AT 12:44 PM (EST)
Honest? A place of faith? That doesn't seem like the Josh being portrayed so far!
*GAG* I agree!
Lisa did go through all of the other players things in search for the HII, and she found it in Malcolm's stuff....then cried some kind of excuse. :-P

Gagging re: Lisa Welchel being one of the "most famous people to play Survivor"....ugh!

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-06-14, 02:42 PM (EST)

23. "RE: Episode2 The Assets:"

Nice catch on Julie's good edit on the duel, can't wait to see how her edit continues.

Enjoyed your take on everything like always Michel!

BTS Bloody Hell 2

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-09-14, 04:40 PM (EST)

28. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

LAST EDITED ON 10-09-14 AT 04:54 PM (EST)
Per Request ...
I am beginning to think that Keith may well be this Season's Sole Survivor.
And, if he is, I would offer this as the Winning Quote:
Give me a day or two and we’ll figure all this out ...
... see what happens.
ETA: One comparison - the unflappable Sandra.

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10-11-14, 04:45 PM (EST)

29. "Episode 3 - Making Changes"

Previously, on Survivor... Julie beat...John Rocker and sent Val’s husband, Jeremy, to join him on Exile Island.
...John promised Jeremy that he’d look after his wife.
At the immunity challenge (note that we saw only Natalie defeating Val and that round was presented as the winning point, Jeff screaming Hunahpu wins the immunity challenge while Natalie is on the platform celebrating) Coyopa continued their losing streak. (Note also that John’s poor sportsmanship was already displayed when we heard him yell “chokehold”)
Back in camp, John found the immunity idol and he kept his promise to Jeremy to save Val... but Val was lying to John: She didn’t have an idol.
Josh got suspicious...and, at Tribal Council, he switched his vote from Baylor to Val.
One has to wonder about the choice of showing Natalie as the one winning immunity for Hunahpu and Dale being so distraught when we didn’t see Kelley’s battle with Jaclyn. I don’t think it was so much to showcase Natalie as to show that Val didn’t do enough to save herself. One thing that has to be noted is that the recap of the challenge would have been an excellent occasion to feature Jon Misch and Kelley’s big win. Ignoring them is a bad sign for both. As for Dale’s presence, it could be simply to underline Coyopa’s distress, but it was more likely shown to begin his own end of game story. Dale had been able to direct the first two votes but, by the end of this episode, he would be completely isolated.
The more interesting question concerns Jeremy: Since we heard Jeff say that Rocker kept his promise to save Val, is it the editing line that Jeremy will be wrong to throw John under the bus at both challenges? This question is at the heart of Jeremy’s story. If we were able to confidently answer it, we would know whether Jeremy is our winner or not. The problem is that he didn’t say anything that wasn’t true when he talked about the former pitcher. In a sense, Rocker deserved it so Jeremy didn’t bully him out of the game. I will still say that Jeremy’s actions will cost him the game, not necessarily from an editing analysis but from a game perspective. When he sees that Coyopa eliminated John, he will think that they are a good group, that they will be fun people to get to know after the merge but there are some real cut-throat players (and alligators!) in Coyopa.
Making Changes
Coyopa – Night 6
The evening started with Baylor’s confessional: “I think I’m officially woken up from thinking I’m safe in this game. It’s now a “Baylor-fight-for-herself” game, not a Baylor-rely-on-Josh to talk to everybody because I was pretty close to being completely blindsided tonight. At this point, I don’t trust anybody necessarily but I’m still open to playing the game with just about anybody.”
This is a great confessional for Baylor. It tells the audience that she isn’t a blind follower and that she could surprise Josh somewhere down the line. The problem is that we’ve had quite a few of these spunky girls making it far but not winning the game. Erinn and Ciera immediately come to mind. While we could be witnessing the birth of Baylor’s winning story, she could also wind up on a Journey that will turn her into the last one standing. The main difference we have between Baylor, Erinn and Ciera is that our cheerleader isn’t isolated. Even if she received votes, she is aligned with Josh, her tribe’s true leader while Coach was gunning for Erinn and Culpepper probably didn’t even talk to Ciera. On the other hand, Baylor was targeted by Rocker, the one Hunahpu considered as the leader, and we will soon hear Josh say that, despite everything, Jaclyn AND Baylor will be the next to go. It must be said that Baylor has an important story ahead.
Right after, John had a confessional: “When Jeremy sees that Val got voted out, he will be pretty pissed but I told her to play an idol, that they were coming after her and she didn’t do it. What else to do? I gave her inside information that, if the alliance of five found out, they would be pretty pissed at me.”
It’s quite funny that John is aware that the inside information he gave to Val would hurt him if it became known but then he would be the one to reveal it to his whole tribe. I guess this is why they have coaches in Baseball: The athletes are the ones playing the game but many really don’t know how to do it. It would have been a good time for Bobby Cox to make a visit to the mound.
Back on the beach, John asked Josh who flipped. The actor was honest: “It was me. I’m sorry I didn’t have time to tell you...I was looking at the numbers and no, I had to vote for Val.”
John conceded: “Smart move.”
Josh in confessional: “Just before Tribal Council, I realized that Jaclyn and Val were voting for Baylor and that was not the plan. I think that John had something to do with that because he had been walking around with Val before Tribal Council and they never spent any time together. John’s credibility has gone way down for me just in this last day but what we will probably end up doing is still the strong boys’ alliance and, unless something crazy happens, Jaclyn and Baylor are probably next on the chopping block.”
In the middle of the confessional, we heard John telling Josh that the alliance of five guys was still solid and Josh agreed that it was.
We are being told that Josh is still with Rocker which isn’t a good sign for him. He will get a confessional that will completely disassociate him from the unsavory character but there is still the impression that it took Josh a long time to see the light.

Hunahpu – Day 7
We heard Drew telling his tribe that a monsoon was coming. He told them that they had to put in a team effort to tighten up the shelter.
Drew (solo): “I’m trying to warn my tribe because we need to find something to cover the roof of the shelter. It looks like Swiss cheese. It’s not going to be good when these tropical storms start coming through.”
Missy narrated the events: “We redesigned the roof and we started weaving these palm fronds. We had lessons and we had everybody going, even the boys...except for Drew. He tried for a minute and he got too frustrated. He had to lie down and take a nap.”
After hearing that Drew had other assets besides weaving, Keith gave us a confessional: “Drew is a big sleeper. If my son was acting like Drew, you’d probably don’t want to know. I probably can’t say it on camera...We still spank, we still whoop, whatever you want to call it, in the South.”
I really saw these two confessionals as a sign of things to come. In Hunahpu, we have Missy, “the Nice Mom” and Keith, “the Strict Father”. Knowing how people need to recreate structure in these trying conditions, Missy and Keith could very well be the nucleus of the “Family” that makes it to the end. Which ones of the many kids still left in the game will make the long trip to day 39 with them? Maybe we will be able to answer that by the end of this episode.
Just when Drew started snoring, Natalie used a leaf to tickle his nose, waking him up. That made Kelley and Jeremy laugh. Natalie said she was sorry that she was working in his sleep area. She asked him point blank to name one thing he’s done.
Natalie in confessional: “I don’t understand how you come here with total strangers and you don’t feel the need to pull your own weight. Drew is just a waste of space.”
This won’t be the last time that Natalie calls out someone in this episode. Since her two targets were Drew and Rocker, two people who certainly deserved it, the audience will appreciate her actions but this is a social game so, to paraphrase her, I don’t understand how she goes there with total strangers and didn’t feel the need to use some tact. It’s not her strong suit for sure and we will soon see that her chances of winning the game are gone.
Natalie and Jeremy went off for a walk. She explained her frustration, saying that she has very low tolerance but Jeremy wisely said: “It’s good for this game. He’s not going to win a million dollars.”
Jeremy in confessional: “Drew is all over the place. I was planning on taking him longer because he’s a moron but I’m not going to be able to. If he is physically falling apart right now, I think that, by day 20, he’ll be like: “Listen, I want to go home. I’m all done, Jeremy. Take my million dollars. You can have it.”
As soon as Jeremy’s confessional ended, the familiar Survivor horn sounded. It served to underline the possible million dollar quote. It was quite telling that we had another image of Drew sleeping while Jeremy was saying that the young man was spent. Contrary to Natalie, Jeremy knows that you don’t need to get frustrated by dumb players, that they are good for his game. We are still receiving hints that Jeremy will be our winner but those hints look more and more like lures. The editors could be creating a false trail so let’s keep our eyes open and see what happens when Hunahpu goes to Tribal Council. We will be in a better position to compare his treatment to the one that Josh has received.

The Reward Challenge
The focus was on Jeremy and Rocker when Jeff said that Val had been vote out. Jeremy simply said: “Whatever.” Asked by Jeff to explain his reaction, Jeremy said: “The men are taking over. They are going to try to take out all the strong women that are threats to them so you all need to start changing it all on them. That’s what you need to do because you all are next.”
The camera included Jaclyn, but our attention was clearly on Baylor when Jeremy mentioned the “strong women that are threats...” It’s interesting that Jeremy misread the dynamics of Coyopa. It certainly isn’t a fatal error like the one made by JT and the Heroes when they thought the Villains were run by the women, but he thinks that Rocker was their leader. With Drew being the moron who wants to lead on his tribe, Jeremy could also think that Alec has to be targeted, not seeing who are the real threats in that tribe.
Julie looked really troubled when Jeff turned to John, asking him to explain how this new layer affects the game.
John answered: “I want to apologize to Jeremy. I gave him my word as a man that I would look out after his wife. I lobbied as hard as I could but I couldn’t swing the rest of my alliance so I had to go along with them.”
John, John, John. You had to know that you’d have to say something so why didn’t you prepare your tribe to what you were going to say before getting to the arena. It would have been simple to tell them that you would be lying to Jeremy to soften the blow, to avoid creating an enemy.

In confessional, Josh immediately confirmed that Rocker didn’t do anything to cover his ##### with his own tribe: “All of us guys are like: “WHAT?” I suspected that he was probably working with Val but he totally admitted to it in the middle of the arena.”
Since the players wanted to know what they were playing for (I wish someday someone says: “Even if we say no, you’re going to tell us anyway”) Jeff revealed that they would be playing for either comfort in the form of a tarp, hammock, mattress, pillow and blankets or the fishing gear that Hunahpu traded for flint.
Having the choice of competitors, Coyopa talked about the decision for once. Wes said: “I feel like my dad wouldn’t be good at all at that.” The others went along so we had Keith versus Wes and while dad did well, the son won the challenge.
It was interesting to hear Kelly's comments: “Nice job, Keith: Nice and slow. You got it. Good job, you are killing it.”
That comment tied in nicely to Keith’s strategy of taking a few days to figure things out. Will Keith “kill” it in the end?

Keith and Wes showed emotions after the challenge. Keith said he was proud of his son. Wes told Jeff that he never saw his father this way except for when his great-grandfather, Keith’s grand-father, died. The two hugged, everyone applauded while Baylor and Missy had a few tears also.
Having to send someone from his tribe to Exile Island with his dad, Wes chose Josh. Jeff wanted to know why. Wes said that he gets along with Josh so he thought his father would also get along.
I really wish that Jeff would force the players to stay quiet and not explain their decisions. That way, when Josh gets to Exile Island and tells Keith that he is aligned with Wes, Keith would have some doubts. He’d have to wonder if Josh was lying. With Jeff opening the door, Wes was actually telling Keith: “I’m in an alliance with Josh so you should trust him.”
Without hesitations, Coyopa chose the fishing gear.
I found that choice intriguing considering that the tarp was included in the comfort items. Nothing is more important than shelter and the fact that the tarp comes AFTER the fishing gear proves that production sees it as a bigger reward. Rewards usually grow in value. I definitely think it was a mistake.
When Coyopa left the arena, John whispered to Jeremy: “I did everything I could, brother. I swear to you.”
Jeremy in confessional: “I did everything I could. No, you didn’t because, if you did, she would still be here. I’m out to get him now. Point blank.”
Julie realized that things were about to get tough for both her and John.
Once again, it’s difficult to assess Jeremy’s comment. The recap made it clear that John kept his promise to Jeremy so we could say that Val’s husband misread the situation and his going after the wrong target which could foreshadow some problems for him in reading people down the line. However, we are talking about John Rocker so the audience couldn’t be unhappy with Jeremy’s tirade. If we add the fact that John could have done more to save Val (give her his idol or, more realistically, tell his alliance that, if they kept Val, they’d have Jeremy on their side) then was Jeremy really wrong to be angry? John did say that protecting Val was a done deal, implying that his decision would sway the tribe. He should have told Jeremy that he wasn’t in an ideal position to save her.
Hunahpu – Day 7
The tribe consoled Jeremy while Julie walked away in tears.
I wonder if parts of this scene weren’t actually taken from the tribe’s return from the Immunity challenge instead of the reward. Because of time constraints, we wouldn’t return to Hunahpu after their win but the confrontation at the RC was quite mild compared to what was going to happen later on. I don’t think there was enough said during the reward challenge to make Julie cry so maybe she just walked off to get water or something this time.
Jeremy was telling his tribe that John was running the show on the other side so that tribe had to go after him.
Jeremy in confessional: “I was mad when I didn’t see Val because John Rocker told me and shook my hand saying he would take care of her. He turned his back on his agreement with me so, even though he is not from my tribe, I need him out.”
The events would be presented in such a way that the audience will be able to say that Jeremy played a big role in getting rid of Rocker.
Jeremy told his tribe who John Rocker really was.

After realizing that John was a racist and a bigot, Natalie had a confessional: “I don’t feel sorry for Julie at all. She is just trying to cover his ##### in order to cover hers knowing that Big John made some racist comments, some homophobic comments. I want the other tribe to grow a pair of balls and stand up against him.”
Despite the bashing from the other members of the tribe, Missy went to comfort Julie.
Julie in confessional: “I feel really alone after what happened. If everybody believes Jeremy, believes that my boyfriend John is running the show; then my boyfriend John made me an open target. (This is when we saw Missy joining Julie) I never thought, in my wildest dreams that Blood versus Water would be this difficult. I know it’s a game but knowing that my boyfriend put me in this situation is hard”
In the middle of her confessional we heard Julie telling Missy: “If they believe what he is saying then what I do doesn’t matter. John is my counter-part in this.”
Missy replied: “You’ve got to play your own game.”
Julie: “It’s just all twisted and messed up.”
At this point, the animal imagery told us that it’s already too late for Julie.

Like the wave that overwhelmed the little bird, this game will drown Julie. Already, the previews to next week’s episode show a group of vultures feeding on carrion left on Hunahpu’s beach which could very well be that little bird. Julie will probably not make it out of Hunahpu.
So what was the point of this scene? It reinforced the “Nice Mom” role that Missy is playing. Her social game has now been shown to be in clear contrast to Drew, Jeremy and Natalie. This could carry her far, especially considering that Coyopa has no Mother figures. The only “parent” in that tribe is Dale and the young ones have moved out of Dale’s place. Dale looks too isolated to play the “Good Parent” role for Coyopa but, once we reach the merge, Missy certainly could.
Exile Island – Day 7
Josh thanked Keith for inviting him to his home then he gave us a confessional: “Exile Island is full of rocks. It’s barren and it sucks. I’m probably going to sleep on rocks tonight, but at least we get the clue to the immunity idol.”
Before they picked urns, Keith made it clear that they should share the information. He gave us this confessional: “I wasn’t thinking the first time that me and Val come out here. She got the clue and I got a blank piece of paper. I was thinking that, this time by gosh, I was going to get something."

I made a note that this confessional worked perfectly with Keith’s theme of needing a few days to figure things out.
The two guys realized that John and Jeremy could have the idols.
That brings an interesting point: We couldn’t see Jeremy going to look for the idol last week since we didn’t go to Hunahpu after he returned from Exile Island but why didn’t he go look for it in this episode? Did the footage of his search get cut and if so, for what purpose? Maybe Jeremy didn’t find the idol despite the easy directions he was given or the editors are being creative and keeping us in the dark. Whenever a player found an idol without the discovery being shown (Gary and Amanda), they played it during that episode’s Tribal Council. If Jeremy has the idol, it could be a long time before he needs it. Will we be kept in the dark that long? It would be fun for a change. However, since the show is so formulaic, Keith could very well still have a chance to find it.
Keith’s confessional resumed: “There haven’t been too many people here. There’s been Jeremy besides me on my crew. I need to get back, find the idol and Jeremy is kind of the only one standing in my way.”
The image shown when Keith said that there was only Jeremy standing in his way was extremely interesting.

Here we had Keith, machete in hand, chopping firewood as if it was in his way. This is a big clue that Keith will backstab Jeremy... maybe even sooner than we think.
Keith then told Josh that they could go look for snails. They found enough for a meal or at least to avoid starving to death.
This led to quite an exceptional succession of confessionals.
It’s rare that we have alternate confessionals in this manner. It’s usually a juxtaposition of point-counterpoint but here they went back and forth, agreeing with each other. I think that, in Josh, we have discovered one of the sons that will form the “Family” trying to make it to the finals.
Josh in confessional: “I think people would be shocked at how well Keith and I get along. You know: A Louisiana hick and a gay guy from New York. It’s not the two people that you would think that would be chilling out and having a good time.”
Keith concurred in his own confessional: “Me and Josh are probably as far apart as night and day, or black and white. He seems like a good ole boy, just not my good ole boy.”
Back to Josh: “I think it’s so cool to hang out with people from a different walk of life that you wouldn’t normally do. How else do we change? How else do we grow?”
Keith’s turn: “Josh is on one side of the fire, I am on the other side of the fire. There won’t be no spooning going on up here tonight either. I just don’t see too many Joshes in Louisiana. Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!”
What a wonderful scene! It reminded me of Hatch and Rudy when Rudy famously said: “I like him but not in a homosexual way.” CTGirl brought up the parallel between country boy JT and city boy Stephen which was another pair that went a long way together. Therefore we have to consider the strong possibility that, like Tocantins and Borneo’s Odd Couples, Josh and Keith will make it far together. There certainly was a lot of time spent with the two and they had a very balanced presence, something that was clearly lacking in our first two trips to Exile (Keith was featured much more than Val while Jeremy overshadowed John. By the way, those were strong indications of the next two eliminations.) The only problem I noted was the kooky music that accompanied the second half of that scene, the part where the odd couple talked about each other. Usually a musical theme like that is associated with losers but maybe, just this once, it served to highlight the amusing scene. Maybe the dramatic theme that accompanied the first half, their arrival at Exile Island and the reading of the clue, was enough to convey the importance of this union.
Coyopa – Night 7
John walked up to camp with “one more catfish.” It led to his confessional: “We won! We actually managed a win today. We got fishing gear. I’m trying to provide for the tribe. Hopefully, they appreciate that and it puts me in good standing with the rest of my tribe mates.”
Wes (solo): “I give all the props to John for catching fish. It felt good eating some real proteins. I feel that we will have the upper hand in the next challenge.”
These two confessionals serve to tell us that Wes still wasn’t questioning his alliance with John. Wes did hold him in good standing. Therefore, the next scene could be considered very important.
Baylor was in the shelter talking to Alec and Wes while John was sleeping on the beach. She said: “This is a game, you can’t forget that. I really love that you get along with all the guys but they do not care about you. Jaclyn would easily come with us so us four...”
Baylor had a confessional: “Right now, the guys seem to be teaming up and throwing the girls under the bus. I have been thinking about what I can say to push the younger guys in the direction of voting John out.”
During their conversation, Baylor brought John’s anger and negativity but Alec countered that he found him to be “a very good dude even if, in some aspects, he was like a virus.” Baylor told them to think about numbers which got Alec to say that they were thinking about them. Baylor countered that it didn’t look that way.
Alec, in confessional: “Baylor is at the bottom of the tribe and she knows it. She is trying to crawl her way up any way she can but we have a pretty strong group of guys so we are still planning on getting these girls out one by one.”
To Wes, Alec said that they had to lie to her because they could still use her.
Another marvelous scene! Not only does it show that Alec isn’t really aware of the dynamics within his own alliance, condemning him to failure, but it robs Jaclyn of her underdog status to put it squarely on Baylor, the one that Alec sees as being at the bottom of the tribe. This scene tells us not only that Baylor is quite a player but that she doesn’t need Josh to help her out. She is trying to establish a side alliance between Alec, Wes and Jaclyn while keeping the one she has with Josh. Interesting game she is playing. The guys think they can use her but, before long, she will be the one using them. There was a funny moment at the end of the scene: Baylor was shown shaking her head in disbelief as if she could hear all the non-sense coming from the two boys.
The Immunity Challenge
In a bit of a departure from the normal rules, Hunahpu was only allowed to sit 1 person. That meant that they would have 4 pairs competing against Coyopa’s three. Dale and Keith didn’t play. With pairs going through an obstacle course, I was hoping for a funny moment like the one with Joel and Chet but, unless hearing people yelling insults makes you laugh, we were not in for a funny scene at all.

In the first match-up, Jon and Natalie faced Josh and Baylor. It didn’t take long for Rocker to show his colors: “Run ‘em over” he yelled when the 2 pairs met in the middle of the course. Jon and Baylor missed their first attempt but Jon’s second shot was good.
The second round saw Wes and Alec taking on Missy and Julie (a bit of a mismatch due to the rule that had only 1 member of Hunahpu on the bench.) We clearly saw Alec give a hip check to Julie, leading Jeremy to yell: “He just smashed your girl, John.” Wes scored a point before the two women retrieved their ball.
Next, we had Drew and Reed going up against John and Jaclyn. John and Jaclyn used their long legs to climb over the obstacles. John mixed it up a little with Reed but nothing serious. Still, Jeremy and Natalie noted his bad sportsmanship. The former pitcher showed he still had good control, making the basket on his first throw.
Facing elimination, Jeremy and Kelley went up against Josh and Baylor. Jeff was heard saying: “Josh dragging Baylor through this course”. Once more though, it was Baylor who took the shot, just missing. Jeremy didn’t miss so we were tied 2-2.
For the final round, Wes and Alec went up against Jon and Natalie. This time, it was Natalie giving a good body check to Wes. Jon and Wes both missed their first attempt. (When we saw the yellow ball landing close to Natalie, I wondered if she could she have kicked farther away?) Retrieving their ball well before Wes and Alec, Jon had plenty of time to aim and score the winning point.
Immediately, Natalie was heard telling Coyopa to “change it up.” John, knowing what she meant, gestured that she had a big mouth. She called him a racist and a bad sport. We heard Dale reply: “Way to bring the class, Natalie.” She wasn’t finished, telling Coyopa once again that they should vote him out. Julie told Jeff that the reaction was due to the fact the tribe saw John as the mastermind and that they knew about “The Article.”
I won’t get into the whole exchange but it must be pointed out that John stood silent for most of it and Dale said that John was part of their tribe so they had his back. Natalie’s renewed demand that they vote him out got John to end his silence and say: “If you were a man, I’d knock your teeth out.” Julie pleaded with John to cut it.
Finally, Jeff did his job and gave the immunity idol to Missy.

Josh had a confessional: “It is scary that John loses his patience, he loses his temper. I think that John is playing haphazardly and he is doing things that are not going to be helpful for the tribe right now. That’s a problem.”
Even if he didn’t say it directly, Josh’s last words told us that he was thinking of getting the other tribe to like them. That will be important if he wants to get someone to flip, if he wants to create a “Family” between members from both tribes. One thing is now certain, Natalie won’t be part of that “Family”. That fury killed her social game.
Coyopa – Day 8
Returning from the IC loss, Baylor gave us a confessional: “The challenge stunk and I might be in trouble because of the guy/girl ratio. The fact that I started off with a vote and the second tribal, I had votes, I feel like I am going to have votes tonight. They should vote John tonight. Natalie is a fighter and she is a trash talker but, for John to be a professional athlete and act like that. I didn’t respect his responses whatsoever. I felt they were seriously harsh and mean and scary.”
John had a confessional to tell us that he expected that people would remember his past and get upset. In response to Natalie’s comment that he was a homophobe, he said: “My closest ally and closest friend on this tribe is a gay man. Actions versus accusations aren’t really gelling.” Knowing that the girls would target him, he said he had a decent strategy. We saw that his plan was to get Baylor and Jaclyn to vote against Dale while he got the guys to vote on Baylor. The problem was that, as soon a she left the shelter, Jaclyn told Baylor: “I don’t want to vote out Dale, I want to vote out John.”
John exposed that plan to Wes, saying: “We are voting Baylor tonight. Do you have a problem with that?” Wes was good with that idea and so were Dale and Alec when John talked to them.
Next came Josh and John added: “If something funny comes down, I’ve got an idol.”
Josh certainly had a problem with John’s plan as he told us in confessional: “I was kind of shocked because I didn’t know he had an immunity idol. You want the people that are going to be the most honest and the most trusting with you when we are getting so far down in numbers. John has shown some sketchiness and done some things that I don’t agree with as far as his mouth with the other tribe, getting on with Val and doing all this other stuff. He’s got an idol and he’s not going to use that idol for me, he’s going to use that idol for himself. Sometimes you make allies and you don’t know really who they are yet. When you get to know them, you are like: Ooh, I don’t want to be an ally with this person because they stand for so many things that I am against. In john’s case, if I don’t have to use him then I don’t want to.”
This was the confessional that Josh needed to remain a top contender. It finally disassociated him from the jerk and told us that he had been mistaken to align with him. The audience can still say that it took him a long time though and that makes us turn once again to Baylor who had been opposed to John even before the challenge confrontation. Of the 4 people that can be credited with turning the tables on John, namely Jeremy, Natalie, Josh and Baylor, I think that it was the “Fight-for-Herself” Baylor that made the best impression.
Like the alligator going on the hunt, Josh went into the ocean to tell Wes that he had a good time with his dad. He added that John probably had their idol. With Wes saying he was ready for a big move, Josh explained that with Alec and Baylor, they had the four votes needed to get rid of John. Wes was on board and so was Baylor when she heard the plan.
Baylor in confessional: “Obviously, I am celebrating. All the votes that I know about, except Dale, are going towards John. I just really hope that Josh is telling me the truth and Wes is not just lying to my face. It’s freaky, it’s scary because you never know that you could be completely played.”
The trap was set: Just like the fish that couldn’t get out of the reptile’s jaws, John wasn’t going to save himself.
Still, Alec had some doubts as we heard in his confessional: “We are talking about maybe getting rid of John while we can but, physically, John is an asset so is that smart right now? Maybe not.”
Even after Wes told him that John had an idol, Alec was still hesitant.
John also felt some doubts because we saw him retrieving his idol and putting it in his pocket. “I think I may as well bring the idol with me even if I think I manipulated the pieces that needed to be manipulated. The tide may turn against me, who knows but it’s nice to have a get out of jail free card.”
Once again, Josh had the last confessional of the episode. “Tonight’s decision at tribal is pretty huge because, if we decide to vote out John, we’re finally breaking up the five guy alliance and we are losing the big guy on our team but, if John doesn’t go home, it’s Baylor. Baylor was my first ally in this game and I know she is with me 100 percent. John is such a wild card, I don’t know. Is there an easy vote tonight? No, but I have to go with my gut and how I think I will be able to continue the farthest in this game. I have no idea if I’m making the right decision tonight.”
It’s very interesting that Josh considers Baylor to be 100 percent with him when we actually heard the cheerleader trying to form a 4 person voting bloc that didn’t include him. Baylor must have also told Jaclyn that the vote was indeed going against John which is another thing that Josh probably doesn’t know.
Tribal Council
Jeff asked John about the fall out after the conversation with Jeremy at the reward challenge.
John said that, after the merge, he would tell Jeremy that he did what he could but that Val made a bluff that she couldn’t back up.
Wes told Jeff that he didn’t like hearing that John tried to save Val but he wasn’t voted out so he was alright.
Alec was asked about the animosity at the immunity challenge. He said that Natalie was hooting and hollering at them before the ball had gone down the hoop. He added: “W can’t win so what else can we do? We can’t vote her out.”
I’m thinking they will get a chance to vote her out at some point.
John told Jeff that he wasn’t the leader of the tribe despite what Hunahpu thought.
Jaclyn told Jeff that she would be in trouble at the merge because Hunahpu thought that she and Baylor were stupid. Asked if she thought another woman would be voted out, Jaclyn answered that she was seeing some shifting of alliances happening.
That remark caught John’s attention. It’s funny that it was presented as a dumb remark; one that certainly could make John play his idol. From John’s point of view however, Jaclyn had to be talking about the plan he gave her. After all, it was John that told Jaclyn and Baylor that Dale was being voted out. John was certainly thinking that Jaclyn was alluding to that shift in alliance.
Asked what he thought of Jaclyn’s comment, Wes said it didn’t worry him, that his alliance was sticking to the game plan.
John loved hearing that.
Josh added that a lot of people didn’t know what was going on. “No one has their story straight.”
Baylor said she was hoping to get rid of the dark cloud covering them saying: “You can’t go with the flow in this game.”
Baylor is working on becoming Probst’s favorite.
Baylor added that she didn’t know if she would be getting votes.
Jaclyn now had doubts about the vote. She said the guys should grow some balls which surprised Rocker.
It was time to vote.
While Jeff was retrieving the urn, we had a shot of one of the girl’s injured knee. The camera made it look like it was Baylor’s injury by showing her face immediately after the close-up of the leg but it was Jaclyn’s knee.

Returning with the votes, Jeff asked if anyone wanted to play an idol. The camera lingered on John, creating some tension but, while he fidgeted around, he remained seated. Everyone looked relieved.
Dale and John were surprised when a third vote turned up against the former pitcher. Then Jeff killed the suspense once more by saying: “Third person voted out” before flipping the decisive parchment. Baylor thanked god, Jaclyn smiled while Dale was shown to be disgusted.
John walked over to plant his torch in front of Jeff who snuffed it. John said: “It was well played.” (He left with a lot of class.)
Jeff’s final words the tribe: “You said you needed to change things up. Maybe this well played blindside is just what this tribe needed to turn things around.”
Josh and Baylor were shown smiling.
The Story
The episode showed us that Coyopa could change and, now that the five guys alliance has been broken, we could witness the formation of an alliance of nice people. It could very well be Coyopa’s best chance to overcome their numbers disadvantage. If they can form a “Family” type alliance from people in both tribes, then they could change the whole game and come out on top. Interestingly at this stage, we still have many contenders and the story can go in many directions.
The Characters
The episode’s figurants (since they had very little going on before then their futures look bleak.)
Reed: He probably left the island for a few days! While his association with Josh could make him a long term player if a cross-tribal “Blood” alliance forms, it’s impossible to give Reed any chances of being in contention to win the game since he is practically absent. As an actor, he must be able to give interesting confessionals but he hasn’t been heard since the very short one when Hunahpu reached their beach on Day 1.

Kelley: The recap robbed Kelley of her moment of glory from the previous episode and we only saw her laughing at Drew’s expense in this episode. If Dale gets voted out then she has no place in the post-merge family.
Jaclyn: The only good moment for Jaclyn in this episode was when she told Baylor that she wanted to go after John, not Dale. From an editing perspective, the rest of the episode killed Jaclyn’s chances. She was the true underdog in Coyopa, the next to go according to Josh whose opinion carries more weight than Alec’s, yet it was Baylor who was painted as the fighting underdog, the one that won’t go with the flow. Jaclyn wasn’t shown once doing anything to save herself. That can only be termed a disastrous showing. If that wasn’t enough, we weren’t shown how she injured her knee and that injury was made to look like it was suffered by Baylor.

Jon: While it could be said that being the MVP of the challenge gave him a good presence in this episode, there really isn’t anything to say about Jon. His challenge strength will make him a target after the merge, especially now that John is gone. His own tribe may look to eliminate him once they join members of Coyopa.
The Dumb Players: They have already killed their game.
Drew: This one is easy to call considering that Jeremy has already told us that he can’t win the million. The interesting thing to see will be how Drew gets himself voted out. The next episode could be funny.
Natalie: While she showed a lot of fight, her mouth has ended her chances of winning the game. The other tribe already wants to see her voted out so, even if by chance, she makes it to the end, she couldn’t get their votes.
Alec: Even when Wes told him about the plan to get rid of John, Alec still wanted to keep the former baseball player. Most importantly, he was shown simply going with the flow when he told Wes that they were still voting out the women but could use Baylor. It’s more likely that he will be the one that gets used.
Wes: Being Keith’s son, he could very well play a role in the “Family” that should come out of Josh’s “Blood” alliance. We heard that Coyopa’s main problem was that they didn’t communicate well before challenges and Wes was the one that not only spoke out before the reward challenge but he won it for his tribe. The problem is that Wes is presented as simply going with the flow. We were told that you can’t go with the flow in this game so I doubt that Wes will be our winner.
The Out-of-Luck Players: They shouldn’t make the merge.
Dale: His only chance was to stay inside the dominating alliance so it explains why he said he had John’s back despite everything that was said during the Immunity Challenge. Maybe that should place Dale in the Dumb Players category but what else could he do? Now, his only hope is a tribal winning streak and an early merge but we had images showing that the game is too hard for him. Dale still has to be considered the most likely to quit.
Julie: Again, some will place her in the Dumb Players category and they will get very little argument from me. She should have known that she was teamed up with a “time bomb” so she should have been up front with her tribe, saying something like: “John isn’t made for Survivor so I won’t even consider aligning myself with him at any point. I’ll always vote with you.” However, I feel that the animal imagery and the scene where we saw her receiving Missy’s comforting words are meant to tell us that she is the victim in all this. She is symbolized by the lost little bird that is going to be swallowed up by the incoming tide.
The Contenders
Jeremy: The editors are still giving us hints that Jeremy will win this game. He got that million dollar quote when we heard him say that Drew will hand him the million. That was immediately followed by the sound of the Survivor horn in a way that underlined his words. However, Jeremy’s only chance is for the singles to take control of this game but it doesn’t seem that he sees it since he has done nothing to get Julie in his alliance. She should be his surest ally once she sees that Coyopa booted John but I feel that Jeremy will feel indebted to Coyopa and boot her instead of any of their loved ones. If a “Blood” alliance forms out of members of both tribes, creating a “Family” of “Nice People” that will try to get to the end together, then it’s troubling that Keith, the leading candidate for the “Strict Father” role, was shown with machete in hand, ready to get Jeremy out of his way. I think that Jeremy is the fake trail, the big character that is being used to distract us from the real winner.
Missy: She is in Jeremy’s alliance, she is already presented as the “Nice Mom” of Hunahpu, the only one to show sympathy for their lost little bird and no one has raised any flags that she could flip to go with her daughter so Missy is safe and should easily make the merge. I would like to see some interaction with Keith, her counterpart in this possible “Blood” Alliance. If Missy makes it to the end, she certainly has the social game to get many votes but she will have to show that she isn’t simply going with the flow. We know that, if there is only place for one of them, Missy will jump off the platform to save her daughter.
Josh: He is probably the top contender right now for many viewers and I do see him as a clinical player that makes all the voting decisions for his tribe without looking like he is the one in charge. That should certainly enable him to fool Jeremy and most of Hunahpu at the merge. Even Wes and Alec don’t know his plans, ignoring his closeness to Baylor. His visit to Keith’s “home” told us that he could very well fit the role of the “Good Son” in Keith’s Family but Josh is an alligator, a predator that is ready and willing to kill all his opponents. The problem is that we know that Josh has a blind spot when it comes to Baylor. He sees her as a vote in his pocket, someone that can even receive a random vote without complaining, but we know that Baylor is in “Fight-for-Herself” mode and she has already made plans that didn’t include him. Considering that “Clinical Players” usually have a monopoly on strategic confessionals, it could be an indication that, while going far, Josh isn’t our winner.
Keith: In this episode, Keith came across as well as Rudy and JT did at the start of their seasons. He is truly a likeable character and, being on the tribe with a numbers advantage, he shouldn’t be in any trouble before the merge. The “Strict Father” was shown in his confessional where he said he’d whoop Drew for being so lazy. He got along very well with the “gay guy from New York” so he will be in a prime position to have the numbers at the merge to strike against Jeremy, the only one that stands in his way... that is if he doesn’t launch his attack sooner. Again, the numbers show that Hunahpu could get rid of any of their strong guys without danger so why not go after Jeremy now? (I always said that one of Tom’s best moves was to instill such a good team spirit in Koror that they didn’t even consider eliminating him before the merge. They were going to be up 8-4 so why boot Willard and not Tom?) I really like Keith’s chances of winning this whole thing. When a Father figure faces the jury, he usually wins.
Baylor: I think that, despite all the other big characters of this episode, the one that really came across well was Baylor with her “Fight for herself” attitude, her alliance attempts with Wes, Alec and Jaclyn, and the inclusion of Jaclyn in the vote against John. She was presented as the underdog that was in big danger so we saw her doing all the right things to change the game. Unlike Josh, she had no reservations in booting John because his display at the challenge was “mean and scary”. The “good daughter” isn’t going with the flow which is a rare quality for such a young woman in this game. Like I wrote above, it could simply mean that she will end up like Erinn and Ciera but she has a big advantage over the two: She is playing with the tribe’s leader and not against him. To save herself, Erinn angered many future jurors while Ciera ran into a strong alliance of veteran players. Baylor is already inside her tribe’s alliance and she has possible allies on the other side. Jeremy’s words at the Reward Arena presented her as a strong woman that had to change things up and she did exactly that. So, along with Keith and Josh, we have to consider Baylor as a top contender.

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-11-14, 06:38 PM (EST)

30. "The Odd Couple ... "

LAST EDITED ON 10-11-14 AT 06:54 PM (EST)
I agree. San Juan del Sur has a very definite familial undertone.
And I, too, think of the laconic Keith as the Season's paternal icon. But I do see his role as less the strict parent (although that aspect of his character has certainly been explored) and more as an expansive, inclusive (visionary and strategic) figure. For instance, even when discussing Drew's laziness and his proposed remedy, the context was inclusive: parent | child.
However, after this last Episode, I think of Josh - not as a child of Keith's household - but as Keith's counterpart: the familial structure's possessive and exclusive (shrewd and discriminating - tactical) maternal presence.
And I realize, that because we are so accustomed to associating personalities | roles with specific genders, it is difficult to see Josh - maternally. But the Exile Island back-and-forth confessionals, the banter between the two men, the content and context of both - in fact, the whole of the interlude - seemed to me to suggest a (surprisingly pleasant) visit between complementary and equally impressive heads-of-household.
And, perhaps, to suggest a pending alliance?
Thank you once again, Michel.
G

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-12-14, 12:22 PM (EST)

32. "RE: The Odd Couple ... "

Thank you, Georgianna for your comments.
I don't know if you ever read Lady V's Family Final 4 posts over at Sucks.
http://survivorsucks.com/topic/2413/Family-Final-Four?page=107#.VDqofGB0zIU
Even if the posters there often stretch things to make the players fit into the roles, I think she did a great job of defining those roles. She doesn't limit them to gender and has often put a woman in a male role and vice versa.
This is taken from her posts:
FATHER = Someone who is concerned with the physical protection of the others on the tribe (protection from the elements, starvation, dehydration, exhaustion); action-oriented; executes plans; goes out and does; hunts/fishes/ tries to ensure safety (of others)... Lets not forget "authority". Fathers are also typically the main authority figure in their tribe.

MOTHER = Someone who is concerned with nurturing others on the tribe, preparing food, tending camp, responding with feeling to crises. Concern for tribal harmony, tribemates' feelings (including soothing boo boos), nurturing, nest-making and nest-tending, food preparation...
SON = Someone who is concerned with ensuring self is treated as an adult, competitive with father figures, friendly with mother figures, struggling to prove competence. Competitive with sibling.
DAUGHTER = Someone who is concerned with tribal harmony, fun, is generally pleasant to be around.
I don't think we have seen Josh comforting anyone. The scene where he told Baylor why he voted for her wasn't really comforting because Baylor said it made him look sketchy. Sons are usually the schemers so I do see Josh as a true son. When he went after John, Coyopa's Father/provider, Josh showed the son's main trait of being competitive with the father.
When Keith asked Josh if he wanted to go look for snails, it fulfilled his role as provider and it made it sound like a father taking his son out to teach him how to hunt.

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-13-14, 06:17 PM (EST)

36. "RE: The Odd Couple ... "

LAST EDITED ON 10-13-14 AT 09:00 PM (EST)
Michel ...
I've read quite a bit of material at SS. But not the thread that you've mentioned. So, I'll begin my response with some basic observations with which I think you'll agree:
1) Not every natural (biological) parent who plays the Game is portrayed within it as a parental character - Father or Mother.
2) Not every individual who is portrayed within the Game as a parental figure is - biologically - a parent.
3) Not every paternal or maternal character within the Game is given a counterpart - mother or father - and/or a family - sons or daughters.
4) Not every player who the audience may - via edit - come to identify as a 'mother' or 'father' or 'son' or 'daughter' is an exemplar of the stereotype's most positive - or most recognizable - traits.
In other words:
It seems to me that not every Survivor 'mother' is nest-making or nest-tending. Or nice. Not every Survivor 'father' is protective. Or successful. Not every Survivor 'son' is competitive. Or striving. And not every Survivor 'daughter' is fun. Or likeable. And while I realize that I'm stating the obvious (or, at least, I think that I am ... ) , I've said these things to point out that neither the editorial selection nor the editorial treatment of the Game's familial character types is uniform | boilerplate from Season to Season. Nor is the audience's impression of them.
For instance: In post-Cagayan Finale interviews, castmembers (including, Trish and Tony) indicated their surprise that Tony's edit revealed so little of his extraordinary efforts to provde for his tribe | alliance. And others of the cast expressed their surprise that Trish was edited as 'nurturing'. So, what are we to conclude about the two? Were Trish and Tony - editorially - a 'mother' and/or a 'father'? Were we meant to think of them as a parental 'couple'?
So, while I think that the definitions of the roles that you've cited are helpful and certainly applicable to some individuals in some Seasons, I also think that even if one could take Lady V’s profiles to the bank- every single Season – I would still be confused by your characterization of the edited relationship of Keith and Josh as that of a father and son. Because, not in his brief encounter with Keith on Exile Island or anywhere in the Season as a whole, do I remember any behavior or dialogue that would indicate that Josh’s character is “Someone who is concerned with ensuring self is treated as an adult, competitive with father figures, friendly with mother figures, struggling to prove competence. Competitive with sibling.”
ETA: I don't think that John Rocker was edited as a father figure. But that's a whole 'nuther post.
Quite the opposite: I see Josh as Coyopa's harmony - provider. A consensus – taker. A secrets - collector. A tribal - nucleus who, from its beginning, the majority of its residents have gone to for information, guidance and a voice in the conduct of village affairs. A leader.
But certainly not a forthright, upfront, make-no-bones-about-it father figure. Rather, a far more emotionally-invested, intuitive, manipulative and cynical – sketchier – parental figure who is not always particularly trustworthy but who, at least initially and often paradoxically, inspires trust.
Some other examples:
James (Miller), Danni, Jaime, GC, JT, Cirie, Trish, Sophie, Dawn Meehan and Spencer.
So, although you know that I have my own criteria for establishing a player’s inclination to adopt a maternal role, I am the first to admit that certainly not everyone so identified ultimately appears in the part. In fact, the majority don’t. And more than a few who don’t appear on my list of most likely candidates are cast as ‘Mom’. But, if the edit tells us early in the Season (in confession or in conversation or in deed), that this is the person who ‘everyone goes to’ - as opposed to the person who 'everyone follows' - then I am fairly certain that we’re seeing that Season's - or one of that Season's - 'Mother(s)’.
Too, I don’t see the “odd couples” with whom you and others have compared Keith and Josh (Rudy | Hatch and JT | Stephen) as Father and Son teams. Do you?
Thank you, again, for doing this for us,
G

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-13-14, 10:40 PM (EST)

37. "RE: The Odd Couple ... "

I agree with you on most of your observations except the 3rd. Every long term parental figure is given a family. If they don't then they aren't long for the game.
A great example of that was Monica in One World who wanted to mother her tribe but no one wanted it. Colton even stated that the reason she went first was because she was smothering him.
And maybe this applies to point 4 but they have a rule that if someone is mixed, showing different traits, then they aren't long for the game.
I saw Keith's offer to Josh to go look for snails as a very father/son like moment in that it is the role of the father to teach his son to hunt, to fend for himself.
I don't know if it matters but Birdlady, a long time contributor to the Family Final 4 thread had this to write after the latest episode:
"Keith and Missy totally for dad and mom. (Keith may even be Josh's dad.) Right now one big happy family, except for Julie...
Coyopa: Josh wants to be Father, and woefully childlike at it...

And, if you are interested, last season Lady V wrote that Tony was a Father and Trish a Mom.
As for the other odd couples, I went back to the SS thread and saw that they had Hatch as Father, Rudy as Mother (He'd love that!) while JT is listed as Father and Stephen the son.
Accurate? In part, maybe. Of course, all this is very subjective so your views are just as good as mine and theirs. I can certainly agree that Josh's desire to be the person that people go to is very Motherly. Maybe it's a sign that he is a Hybrid and cannot win because he won't be trusted.

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-14-14, 01:25 AM (EST)

39. "RE: The Odd Couple ... "

LAST EDITED ON 10-14-14 AT 02:55 AM (EST)
Thank you, Michel.
I've taken a quick look at Family Final Four and it is very subjective, isn't it?
It appears that, rather than to explore the nuances of the four | five principal roles, familial designations are simply shuffled from Episode to Episode to conform to shifting circumstances. One would be tempted to think that CBS has published Chameleons Wanted! Psychological Gymnasts Considered! on the Survivor site.
But, I think the premise would probably be a fun way to explore a Season. And I do intend to go back. If for nothing more than to track down Gabon's winner. I am dying to know what-in-the-devil they called Bob.
I'm curious, too, about Lady V. Do you know if (she) is known by any other name within the spoiling community? The writing style feels familiar.
ETA: I wonder if watching (and analyzing) the show through a traditional family lens is - given the fundamentally altered demographics of its primary audience and emphases of its editing patterns - any longer practical?

G

PS: There is a Sign that with absolute - nothing but the numbers - objectivity indicates that Josh is very unlikely to become this Season's winner. But its label doesn't read Hybrid ...

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-11-14, 07:56 PM (EST)

31. "RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes"

Rocker said in the first show about needing to get Wes out of the game. He never did. And wasn't their some kind of chopping going on after Tony talking about trusting Kass last year implying Kass was going to chop him off last season? Kass finished third, he won. I don't want to think those bird cues or chopping means much. Its just symbolism of the moment with Julie and what is planned but may not happen and that Jeremy and Keith could soon be against each other but not so much Keith could cut Jeremy off but the other way also is an option. Also, Morgan never got rid of LJ last season.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-12-14, 12:37 PM (EST)

33. "RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes"

Rocker's failure to eliminate Wes doesn't mean that none of those comments have importance. I think that, by saying he'd go after Wes when Wes wasn't a threat, then it foreshadowed that Wes would be the one blindsiding John.
Now, of course that could mean that Jeremy will turn things around on Keith but I had to mention the machete when it coincided so perfectly with what Keith was saying. Last season was all about distracting us from Tony's obvious road to victory. (I think it was Spencer holding the machete.) It's still early to have a true picture of the season's story but the upcoming episode's boot should give us some answers. I'm taking it slow and steady!

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-13-14, 09:48 AM (EST)

34. "RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes"

LAST EDITED ON 10-13-14 AT 09:49 AM (EST)
Stellar interpretation of the editing, michel, as always. I love how you flesh out things like noting the family theme developing in the season. I also like Georgianna's take that Keith and Josh were as a couple, one more paternal, the other more maternal. It will be fun to see if this is developed further in the show. Michel has provided an excellent blow by blow with the editing, I loved that you spotted the bird being swallowed by the wave and associating it with Julie. I agree, Julie has been left out to "dry"...Also, that it was Jacklyn's knee edited to be Baylor's...what the heck!
So, I am going to comment on where the editing is taking me as a viewer....right or wrong:
I do try and pay attention to a lot of the editing because it really can be defining in leading you to the right boot choices, and telling the story of the late game players. (The story from the winners point of view). Right now this season is ALL over the place, they are a train wreck. Clearly Josh and Baylor are getting the better edits on Coyopa. However, Josh appears to be all over the place and shown to throw his closest allies under the bus on more than several occasions...not smart. First he gambles with votes toward Baylor, not once but twice, then he does stab his big strong shield in the back. He's unpredictable, he is shown to be untrustworthy, he's flighty... if I were there, I would want to vote him out.
Josh also got a lot of confessionals when he was with Keith on EI. Noting how stress free and truly enjoyable it was to spend time with someone from a completely different walk of life, etc. But, this is contrasting to him being aligned with Rocker, also from a completely different walk of life, then stabbing him in the back. It wouldn't have been a big deal that he chose not to trust Rocker and vote him out, if we hadn't just heard in the last episode that no matter how bad he was he still really wanted to align with him because he was good for his game. This underlines the fact that Josh is flighty, and unpredictable to me. He says one thing and is shown to do another thing. We were shown those confessionals that he made stating how Baylor was his ally, and how no matter what John has done, he's good for my game, for a REASON. To emphasize that he thinks one thing and does another. It casts serious doubt that Josh can win this game for me...(I suppose he could show incredible growth and mature, perhaps he's being edited as a young teen who is trying to make his way among his peers while he's trying to break away from mom and dad, all the while making bad choices but learning from them and eventually making the right choice?)
Then, Baylor, she's shown to have trusted him not once but 3 times. After the first 2 times she said she wouldn't trust anybody....clearly, she must have Josh's number, but I don't think so. A LUCKY, or gullible, or desperate, or dumb player, imo. She seems to have lights on, but I don't know if she is really home. If I was misled by someone that I entrusted in the game, I would definitively cross them off...I would not forget. I would do anything to keep my head above water. She seems reactive, not proactive. She says in confessional: "I think I have officially woken up in this game....It's now a Baylor fight for herself in this game, not rely on Josh. I was almost completely blindsided tonight. I don't trust anyone but I am still open to playing this game with anybody."
We did see her "trying" to make headway with others, but it didn't appear successful to me. Then when Josh, who she states she cannot rely on, suggests an option, she goes for it with gusto. In other words, it just seemed that once again she blindly follows Josh with whatever he says. This time, it worked out for her, but not because of anything she did or didn't do.
Meanwhile, at Hunahpu, Jeremy had the best edit in the intro. So much so I was wondering if he would have the Tom Westman type edit. However, he's gone steadily down hill for me, as has the tribe. This whole John Rocker thing has made a fool of him, imo. Rocker is the one that got the better edit. Granted, whether he's a prejudiced jacka$$ or not, (I never knew him at all so it's all hearsay to me), all the hate surrounds a controversial article, written in the press (and we all know they don't embellish, fabricate, or rant to muster up controversy at all) years ago. I think people deserve the benefit of the doubt and until you see first hand who they are, best to keep your mouth shut. Regardless, if Jeremy knew all along who he said Rocker was, why did he trust him to deal with in the first place? Then, no matter what Rocker would say, Jeremy had judged, convicted, and sentenced him as soon as he saw Val was gone. It was Jeremy that stirred the pot, to a very immature, abrasive, young tribe. Jeremy to me is coming off like a villain...igniting the fire/smoke screen, while he sits back and reaps the rewards, all the while making fun of his own tribe.
He seems like a really smug guy, especially when he talks crap about the guys in his tribe. Let's face it, Drew is not getting a good edit, but I do think there was more substance to Jon. Reed is being hidden...not included in any of Jeremy's smack talk. I think Jeremy has vilified Julie as well, just by being affiliated with Rocker. So, while I thought Jeremy may have a good chance to win this game, for me, he's not being edited as a "good" guy. He is causing himself and his entire tribe to be edited into just what they say Rocker is accused of being...at least fueling an apparently unjustified attack. For me, someone assessing Rocker for just what I see him doing on my television, I don't see him as a smart player. He has a mouth, but clearly he was verbally assaulted by the other team that apparently has judged him for some things that happened many years before, which I can see how he feels compelled to say something back to them. Let's face it, we have heard players antagonize opponents before, this is nothing new...I don't think it's the "worst" thing you can do in this game, clearly not the best thing for your personal game, but that goes along with him not being a "smart" player. But, he was a man of his word, he went to Val and told her his plan, she was the stupid one that didn't come clean with him. So, from my point of view, Jeremy and the Hunahpu's look far more judgmental, vindictive, and revengeful than Rocker ever did.
This episode made me think that Jeremy is a selfish, smug, vengeful and arrogant guy. He puts down everyone that is not in his alliance in his confessionals...what do they say? Insecure people make fun of and put others down to make themselves feel bigger and better? I don't know if a winner can recoup from this beginning or not. (Just as you see that Natalie has shot herself in the foot by being so verbally abrasive).
The ones that I think that are being edited as keeping their mouths shut and not prejudging are the ones that may have more of a chance in this show. So far, it's Keith the oldest and saltiest guy there, whose edit is looking better and better, imo. Older and wiser, perhaps. Georgianna had a nice observation regarding him with this quote...
"I am beginning to think that Keith may well be this Season's Sole Survivor.
And, if he is, I would offer this as the Winning Quote:
Give me a day or two and we’ll figure all this out ... "
The worse his tribe mates appear, the better he looks. We LIKE him, and I really think that the winner has got to be someone they like.
Others that may stand a chance are Reed, Jon, or Missy. Reed is totally under the radar, keeping his mouth and opinions to himself, and he's not been put down by Jeremy in confessionals. Compared to his partner, however, he really doesn't seem to have as much substance. Jon, while he is someone that Jeremy puts down, his confessional about his father did show us there is more to him. He listened to Jeremy when Jeremy exposed Rocker, and I do feel that there is far more to him than Miss Michigan. Missy is the compassionate, empathetic one on the tribe, and that is a good thing, with this group. She seems smarter than her daughter, to me, at least at this time, but clearly her weak point or achilles heel is her daughter as we were shown in the sumo challenge. Time will tell.
Just some impressions on the season's characters...

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-13-14, 03:29 PM (EST)

35. "RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes"

Thank you, FP,
I enjoyed reading your views of the players very much. I was very hesitant to be as negative as you about Jeremy because, well, it was "Off-his-Rocker" after all and I knew him during his playing days. However, you make great points about his "Villainous" side. Maybe I was hoping to see another Earl but I don't think he is playing anywhere near as good a social game as the King of Fiji.
I remember what Stephen and Taj said after the merger in Tocantins. They wondered why Brandon and Sierra didn't come to talk to them. Is it possible that we don't hear any alliance talks between Jeremy, Missy, Kelley, Natalie and Keith because there are none. Like Brandon, Jeremy could want to hide his alliance so much that he winds up killing it. You have to keep contact with your allies as much as possible, reassuring them always that things are still on track. He could be on cruise-control and wake up only when he hits the wall.
What you wrote: "I never knew him at all so it's all hearsay to me" should certainly have crossed Natalie's mind. She never even read the article yet she was the most vehement.
I do however think you are a bit too negative on Baylor. The editors are doing everything they can to make us like her so that is something we should keep in mind. Instead of saying that she relied on Josh (which is the actual truth of what happened on the island) I saw the story as Josh finally coming to his senses while Baylor had been there all along. The same could be said of the night scene where Alec rejected Baylor's plan, saying they could lie to her and still use her. Her expression of disbelief was telling us that those boys didn't know what they were talking about, that she was using them.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-13-14, 11:02 PM (EST)

38. "RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes"

Thanks for the feedback, michel. Regarding Baylor and Josh...no question that they are being favorited by the editing, but it's just that they are coming across to me as a "hot mess"...really a fitting term, lol! Both of them can show growth and maturation when they start like they have...and, who knows, the promos seem to imply that Hanahpu is going to self destruct a bit as well.

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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-14-14, 11:33 AM (EST)

40. "RE: Episode 3 - Making Changes"

First, thanks for the shout out Michel! I really like the "family" analogy. It does seem like the survivors are going that route this season and that the singles won't take over.
FloPo - Jeff did say in preseason press (I think with EW) that there are a lot of twists and turns this season and that you really don't know who's going to win. (Of course, that could be typical Jeff hyperbole). I keep thinking back to how Tony was edited. I discounted him early on and never considered him a contender because he was so manic and frenetic. If Josh and Baylor get to the end being a "hot mess," then we know that's how they will be portrayed. And after Tony's win, anything is possible!
I think I need to pay more attention to the editing this year!

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-14-14, 01:55 PM (EST)

41. "Additionally..."

I hear you loud and clear, CTGirl! I, too, discounted Tony at first, but quickly realized he was playing circles around the people that he played with. This time I don't get the feeling that Josh and Baylor are playing circles around anybody but more they are barely hanging on. But, as I have said, there is certainly room for much growth and maturation in both of them!
I wanted to add on to my earlier thoughts as Jeremy as a villain since the new promo has aired. Jeremy stating that he wants to vote out Keith because he cannot be trusted, distinctly pits Jeremy against our comic relief. Interesting.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-18-14, 03:55 PM (EST)

42. "Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls"

In the recap, Jeff told us that everything was going right for Keith. He got a clue to an idol and, after protecting Val at Exile Island, he gained an ally in her husband, Jeremy...
(We heard Jeremy mention the brotherhood of firefighters)
... but the rest of his tribe was struggling. Jon lost their flint and Drew simply lost his energy. At the last immunity challenge, they beat Coyopa again and finally John Rocker’s past caught up with him.
At Tribal Council, Coyopa continued to fall apart... (We heard Jaclyn’s comment about shifting alliance and the need for guys to grow balls) ...The men’s alliance crumbled and John wasn’t the only one blindsided (Dale).
This is probably the weirdest recap in recent memory. It was as if last week’s scene at Exile Island never happened because we never saw Josh and Keith interacting. That means the hilarious scene cannot be as important as we thought, that it really only served for comic relief. Still, for some reason, we are told that things were going right for Keith. Did he blow it now that he lost Jeremy’s trust?
The comment that Hunahpu is struggling really stood out because they really hadn’t been in any kind of difficulty up to now. Also, Coyopa continued to fall apart so we can assume that neither tribe will succeed, that our end players will come from remnants of both tribes. It was interesting to see that Jaclyn was the only one heard at Tribal Council when it came time to switch the game, to grow some balls.
Good Play, Girls
Coyopa – Night 8
Baylor was the one interviewed about the big move. She was ecstatic when she said: “Tonight, John got voted out! Yay! Kudos to the team. He was the biggest, strongest guy on our tribe but I feel, more importantly, you have to have a positive team. John’s attitude being removed will help us. Unfortunately, that leaves Dale on the outs.”
The next days’ events will prove that she was right; the vote appeared to have helped the tribe. I noticed however how this scene completely ignored Josh and his role in the whole thing. It was the biggest move of the season up to now and he had made it happened but it was “Kudos to the team”. Going by the recap and then hearing Baylor’s confessional, it makes it seem as if only the two women benefitted from it. It’s as if Jaclyn got the men to break up their alliance and that Baylor’s idea of a positive team prevailed.

Dale’s interview: “I probably got comfortable in our five-guy alliance and probably let the social game slide a little bit. I have to put more effort in trusting people because, as of right now, if we lose the next immunity, I’m toast. ”
Hunahpu – Day 9
The tribe was waking up and Natalie was tending fire when, like magic, the flint appeared at her feet.
Did anyone think it was planted there? We had seen the tribe looking all over the fire pit and raking the ground. Did they really miss it or was it production’s idea to spice up the episode a bit? However it happened, it did lead to a funny scene at the arena.
Drew had a confessional: “The other day, we lost our flint and we had to forfeit the fishing gear we’d won to get a new one. It really aggravated me because I’m a big fisherman and I definitely could provide for the tribe, but now, I am literally starving to death.”
He told the tribe that he would barter with Jeff.
It led to Kelley’s interview: “Drew is a lot of talk, let’s be honest. He says he can do all these amazing things then he sleeps for four hours but all we can hear from Drew is “Fishing gear, fishing gear; We should have gotten the fishing gear.”
Someone said the fishing gear was gone.
Soon, Drew would follow! We will see evidence that Drew and Kelley couldn’t stand each other throughout the episode. Every time Drew said something, we would either hear Kelley commenting it or we would see an expression that left little doubt about her thoughts. The events would give Kelley a much better role than Drew but, now that he is gone, what role is left for our farmer’s daughter?
Kelley was on our screens when we heard Drew say that he couldn’t survive on the same portions as a 100 pound girl. He added that a good leader would make decisions that others don’t want to do, in this case, barter with Jeff. The interview ended with Drew saying that, without him, these people would be nothing.
I guess we will have a chance to see how it turns out.
The Reward Challenge
Hunahpu saw that John had been voted out. Many were seen clapping. Jon even stood up. Julie told Jeff that she wasn’t surprised, that she knew that if he continued that way, she would have to be blind to it and be with her team.
Drew interrupted Jeff and showed him the brand new flint. Our host smiled at that and, while he teased him about making a new trade, it soon became apparent that all trades were final.
Kelley was the most vocal about Drew’s actions, saying that he was being dumb. She wanted no part of this negotiation.
In this sequence, it was evident that the Hunahpu women, led by Kelley, thought the trade talks were ridiculous while most of the men, by actively participating in it (Reed asked Jeff for his return policy while Jon said that it felt like they were being taunted) looked dumb. There is a feel developing to this season that the men aren’t very bright, that the women are the smart ones. Could it be setting up a female winner?
Jon decided to do the challenge, going up against Jaclyn.
While Jon had trouble early, Miss Michigan did well. (Dale said that Jon tosses like a girl). Jon soon recovered the lead but he had trouble with the last ball so Jaclyn tied him at 4-4 for a while until, finally, Jon won the reward.
Before she left, the couple had a touching moment when Jon said she was tough enough to handle exile Island. With Drew volunteering, Jon had no problems making his decision. He sent his “boyfriend” to accompany his girlfriend to Exile Island. He explained that Drew could pull his weight “when he isn’t napping”. To Jaclyn’s ear, Jon whispered that “(Drew) is a good guy.”
Alec’s interview was used to narrate the situation: “We are dying to win. I want to win so bad. We are desperate and, continuing to lose, we are on the ropes. Are we going to be able to pick ourselves up or are we going to be the worst tribe in Survivor history? Who knows?”

Alec’s role would suddenly increase in this episode. Before reading too much into it, I think it was just a way to connect the pair of Loved Ones, to remind the audience that Alec was Drew’s brother, that he would soon be the most shocked by the upcoming vote. Next week will show if Alec’s turn in the spotlight was only to prepare us for his reaction at the arena or if it is the start of a new story arc. While we were wrong to think there would be a confrontation between the brothers, we were right to think that Alec would outlast his “Drewchebag” of a brother.
Hunahpu
When the tribe returned, we heard Jon and his tribe agreeing that Jaclyn was tough and that she would handle Exile Island.
It’s always good for a player’s future to hear people talking positively about them so I noted that people liked “Michigan” and saw her as a strong woman.
Jon gave an interview: “I have mixed emotions about how I feel sending Drew with Jaclyn on Exile Island. He is somebody that I do trust, but if Drew is anything like he is at camp, Jaclyn might be doing most of the firewood collecting but I think she can handle it.”
The conversation soon turned to Rocker’s elimination so the camera went to Julie. Asked how she felt, Julie said she was alright: “I want to move on and it lets me play the game. I don’t have to worry about him.”
Julie in confessional: “Seeing my boyfriend John voted out was hurtful just to know that everybody was anti-John Rocker, the love of my life, but things like this happen all the time with John, where he is automatically judged from day 1 so I kind of prepared myself. To be without him right now is such a desperate feeling. All I can do is try my best and get myself back in the game.”
The vote would prove that she got herself back in the game, at least for now. While I maintain that she should have said something like this to her tribe BEFORE John was voted out, it was nice to hear her say that she knew it would happen and that she was playing for the team, not him.
Exile Island – Day 9
The body wasn’t cold yet but vultures were already feasting when Drew and Jaclyn arrived at Exile Island. The editors weren’t making it hard to tell that the “Drewchebag” was going to be eliminated. It’s often the case when a “Dumb Player” gets voted out; the episode is set up so that the audience can enjoy the fall.
Drew had an interview to say that Exile Island sucked.
When the two picked urns, we had our first sighting of a snake. There would be many more during the night.
Drew got the clue and read it to Jaclyn.
It looked a lot less detailed than the one that Josh and Keith received. The parchment had only two pictures. What does it mean? Is there a new location for the idol? If so, does that mean there is a second idol at Hunahpu?
In addition to the clue, Drew was happy to be with Miss Michigan even if he wasn’t there to find a girlfriend, especially not with one of his buddy’s girl.
Jaclyn told us that Alec had informed her about Drew’s reputation with the ladies.
It was quite funny to hear Drew say that he hadn’t tried to work the ladies’ man angle too much considering it would be the ladies that would vote him out.
Drew told Jaclyn that Jon was afraid of being voted out by the women of Hunahpu.
Jaclyn gave an interview: “Alec told me that his brother is a ladies’ man. Ha! But I’m not worried about him. I’m just thinking about the game. With Drew, I want to figure out what’s going on and collaborate.”
When she told him that she was afraid of what would happen if they lost again, Drew said he wouldn’t let them lose again, that he was going to throw the next game. He added: “There are snakes on our team that have to go.”
In confessional, Drew said that all the girls in his tribe looked untrustworthy. He added: “In the long run, they have no chance to compete against us.”
Since Drew would be wrong about so many things in this episode, can we say that this remark aired to give us a hint that the women will not only compete against them but come out on top?
The scene ended with a helicopter shot of Drew standing on the big rock in the ocean, saying he wanted to start whittling down the numbers on his tribe to win the million dollars. This shot, often reserved for winners, can also quite amusingly, show us “The Fool on the Hill.”
Hunahpu – Day 9
It is important to note that we still haven’t been in Coyopa since the almost obligatory “Black and White Survivor” scene at the start of the episode.
The first image we had was of Jon “getting used” to resting in the hammock. Keith used the time to go look for the idol. Looking at his position with respect to the well, we could tell right away that he wasn’t going to find it there.
Keith (solo): “The other day on Exile Island, I got a clue that there was an idol over here by the well. So, I came here, kicked around, dug around to see, but I couldn’t find it.” (More snakes were shown) “I dug around the sand for about 30 minutes and I thought that I was wasting my time. Unfortunately, it looks like I’m a day late and a dollar short. It looks like somebody’s already been through there. I think I might got beat to the punch.”
He told Missy, Reed and Natalie that he had a clue to the idol but that it wasn’t there so that Jeremy had to have the idol. “Jeremy’s got an idol” he said.
While the snake who had been observing Keith slithered away, Reed went directly to Jeremy to give him the scoop on Keith: “Keith just told the tribe that you have an idol.”
Jeremy couldn’t believe it but Reed told him that it was true.
Wasn’t it odd that it was Reed who told Jeremy? Why not Missy or Natalie, the ones who are aligned with the firefighter? With the snake shown moving from one scene to the next, the whole thing made Reed look like a snitch. The worst is that the revelation didn’t help him in the least to get into “Jeremy’s” alliance.
Jeremy in confessional: “Here I am thinking that I have Keith with me but now I find out that he is telling everybody that I have the idol. I’m pissed. I mean, we are both firefighters. I told you I had your back. If you think I have an idol, why didn’t you just come to me? Don’t you think that we are on the same page? We could have used it together. Keith was chilling; he wasn’t on anyone’s radar but now, I want him gone because Keith; you are a rat.”
In the middle of this confessional, we heard Jeremy telling Jon and Reed that Keith had been searching all around and was baffled that he was putting it on him.
By sundown, we saw Keith returning to the well while we heard him say in confessional: “I got to thinking that idols are important to this game and they are a good thing to have around. So I said, well, I’ll go back. Maybe I wasn’t due North or 7 steps. I prodded around a little more” (I smiled when the idol practically jumped out at him!) “I thought it had already done been found but obviously not. As a matter of fact, it almost jumped out at me, kinda scared me. I’m probably not going to tell anybody that I have the idol because the last thing I need is a target on my back. I’m not a brain surgeon but if everybody thinks Jeremy has it, that could be good for me.”
Isn’t this a wonderful way to show that Keith really needs to take his time to figure things out? It’s not only his words now that tell us he will figure it out in a few days: We actually saw him figure out that he was wrong and he was able to correct himself. His bumbling, fumbling ways may yet be good for him just like having people think Jeremy has the idol could work out nicely.
Coyopa – Day 10
We could almost say finally but it was rather an inconsequential scene, at least for the tribe as a whole.
Baylor and Alec went to get tree mail. Alec told Baylor not to snatch it from him. They argued a bit like brother and sister with Baylor saying: “You are being a woman right now.”
Baylor in confessional: “Alec feels like a little brother sometimes to me even if he is two years older. He likes to boss me around a little bit so I’ve had to bite my tongue a bunch.”
Alec read the note but he was so hesitant that the group didn’t understand what he said. Josh asked him to read it one more time so that he could get it. Baylor snatched the note from Alec and read it. Alec looked quite upset.
Alec in confessional: “Baylor does things here and there that kind of get on my nerves and I’m not going to let her get away with it. She makes it seem like, in her life, everything is given to her just like it was for Drew but she isn’t my brother so I’m going to call her on every single thing she does. As a kid, my dad didn’t go wake Drew up to wash cars because he knew Drew wouldn’t be worth a damn. He came to wake me up. I had to work hard for everything I’ve gotten and I think that, in the end, it made me a stronger person. I think sharing that knowledge with others might be what we need to do. Get everybody on the same page and just believe that we can beat the other tribe. David can beat Goliath.”
It seemed that Baylor hadn’t cleaned the pot properly so Alec got her to go back to wash it again. “Don’t half-##### it. If you didn’t half-##### it, you wouldn’t have to do it twice” he told her. When he explained that he was being tough on her because that’s how he was taught, Baylor simply answered: “Thanks, bro.”
It’s very good for Alec to come out of his brother’s shadow this way, to be disassociated from the episode’s dumb player. Before Drew left, we finally got to know Alec a little and he explained the main difference between the two was that he always woke up to do the job while we saw that his brother’s worst trait was to sleep instead of working. After this confessional, we have to keep an eye on Alec and see where his story will lead him. Can this David beat Goliath? Maybe but Goliath didn’t throw the fight. As for Baylor, it has to worry her fans a bit that we heard she is a lot like Drew, used to getting everything handed to her. Now, her story can only lead her to victory if we clearly see that she doesn’t half-##### it. Maybe she will have her “bro” Alec to thank in the end.
The Immunity Challenge
We had a confessional from Drew in which he wondered if he would throw the challenge. He knew people would hate him for it but he felt it had to be done.
Kelley sat out because she preferred doing puzzles. Jeremy and Jon joined her on the bench.
During the swim, Jeff was most vocal about Alec who was “making up a lot of time. That is how you do it.”
Alec’s role is still growing.
The 4 swimmers retrieved the rings, so it was mainly up to Dale and Josh for Coyopa to toss them on the post while Drew insisted on throwing them for Hunahpu. It was evident that he was throwing it because the rings were flying all over the place. Jeff even said that Drew was single-handedly losing it for his tribe. Dale made the final throw and Coyopa won their first immunity challenge.
After apologizing to the tribe, Drew said in confessional that he had thrown it to get rid of the snakes. He added his own, warped, version of leadership: “If I don’t want to win, we are not going to win and that is what makes me the kingpin of our tribe.”
Hunahpu – Day 10
Once more, we heard Drew apologizing to his tribe before telling us that he had been looking for an opportunity to throw the challenge. He added: “Basically, I’m a badass and a manipulator of this game.”
In case we hadn’t gotten the message yet, the editors threw in another scene of vultures eating rotting flesh. The Drewchebag was toast.
Before Drew explained his plan, we heard Jon talking to Missy, Reed and Keith: “Here’s my idea: I fear that, going into the merge, the individuals are going to outnumber the couples (we see Julie and Natalie as examples of individuals to target) So we need to take out people that don’t have a loved one right now.” With them agreeing, Jon added: “That’s why I think Julie is an easy vote and she hurts our team.”
Reed concurred: “And she was kind of worthless at the challenge today.”
Well, maybe not as worthless as Drew!
Jon in an interview: “My argument today was that Julie should be the one to go. She hasn’t really been helping in challenges and she doesn’t help around camp, it would be an easy one to agree on, but most importantly; she doesn’t have a Loved One.”
The image of Julie sun tanning on the beach was the one the editors used while Jon was saying she wasn’t working. Given that picture, it’s hard to argue against the former football player.

That’s when Drew walked in on the conversation, cutting it short by saying: “There is no good reason to vote Julie right now. Listen to me: Who is the most dangerous person in this tribe right now? Who is it? Who is going to manipulate this game and throw the stronger guys out?” No one had an answer so Drew answered his own questions: “It’s Kelley. She is the best player here.”
Most of the audience must have said “What?” when Drew named her as the most dangerous player in the tribe. It’s another good sign for Kelley but it would have been nice for us to hear her thoughts on strategy, to see her as a manipulator.
Keith agreed in part: “She knows the game but I don’t know about the player.”
In confessional, Drew explained his reasons: “Kelley...she is very low-key but, at the same time, she is very observant...she has not missed one episode of Survivor. Kelley is a threat and it is my mission to get people to vote for her tonight.”
Before Drew could explain his “mission” to Jeremy, the firefighter told him that he didn’t trust Keith. He added: “We need to have each other’s back. If someone is after you, I got your back; I’m going to go after that person. If someone is after me, I expect the same thing.”
Drew wouldn’t have it: “He’s only 1 vote so who is he going to get? You are overlooking the mastermind here and it’s Kelley.”
Could it be that the one they are overlooking is Keith?! Now that would be funny if the one that only had 1 vote and couldn’t get anyone winds up getting them all!
Jeremy gave us an interview: “This is the thing: I want Keith gone. Keith is trying to go after me so now I don’t trust him at all, but Drew? He wants to get rid of Kelley now because he thinks Kelley runs the girls which is ridiculous. She’s not doing anything.”
One has to wonder if Jeremy isn’t as blind as Drew because Keith isn’t doing anything that matters either. Is Jeremy overlooking the girl power that is forming around him?
When Drew explained the pecking order as he perceived it, Natalie objected: “There is less girls anyway.”
Jeremy’s interview continued: “With Drew, there is no back and forth. He’s just like: “Kelley is going home and that’s it. It pisses me off.”
After talking to Missy, who acted surprised to hear what Drew had said (She was with Drew when he first talked about Kelley), Natalie had a confessional: “Drew, he’s scared that the girls are going to vote out guys which is stupid. We don’t even have the numbers to do that but he is convinced of this girl-girl alliance. The guys are kind of like a mess; they are not on the same page which is good. (The confessional continued after the scene transcribed below) Getting rid of Drew; it would be so sweet if we can pull this off. He is so annoying. We have to do it now that the guys are all over the place.”
Wondering who between Drew and Jon would be long term threats to win individual immunity challenges, Natalie said it would probably be Drew. That got Missy to say: “Maybe we should get rid of Drew first.”
Is that a hint that Jon will go on an immunity run? Looking on past challenge results and the information they have on the two, Jon looks like a much more formidable opponent. I noticed also that Jeremy was shown on camera when Natalie said the guys were all over the place, an indication that he may not be so different after all. Jeremy was the 5th vote they needed to secure since they didn’t know just how messed up the guys’ votes would be but it makes me wonder if this is really Jeremy’s alliance. In this episode, it looked a lot like Jeremy was the alliance’s tool rather than its leader.
With Kelley standing just a few feet behind him, Drew told Reed and Jon that voting Kelley would be the power move. He added: “Let’s kick Kelley out tonight and then all these bitches won’t know what to do other than come to us...Trust me. Count on it.”
I thought we were back in Cook Islands, listening to “King” JP talking to Nate, Adam and Brad but Drew was even more cocky, using such a vulgar term as bitches and talking out loud near everyone. There are somethings you should never do on Survivor.
Kelley gave us an interview: “I was standing by the shelter and I heard Drew leading this charge to get me out. I was like: “What the hell!” I don’t know what it is. Maybe he’s just threatened by me as a strong female. Drew has this vision in his head and he is like the king of it and he has to be the one that gives the final decision and I think that people are getting over that really quickly.”
Natalie talked to Jeremy, telling him that Missy was down with getting rid of Drew. She added that they could get Jon, tell him that Drew is leading him the wrong path.
Just before they left for the Council, we heard Drew telling Missy that they were voting out Kelley whether she was on board with it or not. Jeremy pointed out that Kelley was sitting right there but Drew said he didn’t care. When Drew told Missy that he didn’t need to have her vote, Jon interrupted him, saying he was a #####.
This was spliced in the middle of the interview that Jeremy was giving on the way to Tribal Council.
Jeremy’s interview: “This is how it’s going right now: The girls want to get rid of Drew. Yes, he is a moron but that’s a big move and it makes me nervous. The problem is that the guys are all over the place. Drew is saying that Kelley is a player. Jon is saying that we are going after Julie and I want to get rid of Keith. It’s just crazy. Maybe we should get rid of Drew. He is digging his own grave but I’m not sure if it’s the right time.”
The images of fast moving clouds followed by a skull that preceded them to Tribal Council were an indication that this vote may not turn out to be the best decision for Jeremy.
Tribal Council
Asked who gets along, Julie pointed immediately to Jon and Drew. “They run around like they are five year olds. It’s cute.”
Asked who didn’t get along, Missy said that there were many chiefs and not enough Indians. She said probably half the tribe was selfish.
As if he knew, Jeff went to Drew when he wanted to talk about the fact that they had been winning and hadn’t voted anyone out.
Drew said everyone was playing nice until the loss where they realized they had to play this game.
Jeff wouldn’t let it go and asked how it felt to have been demolished in the challenge by someone who could be his grand-dad.
Kelley and Jeremy were amused by that but Drew simply said he did the best he could.
Jon told Jeff about the scrambling that took place when they returned to camp. He added: “Emotions got high. It was confusing.”
Jeremy explained: “Keith comes back from Exile and tells everybody that I have an idol. So I say, Keith, why don’t you come to me? We’re aligned!”
Keith said he was looking for the idol and couldn’t find it. “I assumed,” he said “I might have been wrong, that Jeremy had beaten me to the punch.” Keith added that he didn’t go to Jeremy because the firefighter could have gone to someone else.
Jeremy was adamant: “We could have kept it between me and you.”
Keith flatly said: “It doesn’t happen like that in this game. If I go to him and say Jeremy, I have an idol, the first thing in his head is let’s put his name down.”
Jeff was amused but Jeremy explained that he wouldn’t have said that because they were in an alliance. “That’s what an alliance is, Keith” he exclaimed. “We could have two people aligned and a sub-alliance with everybody else. We could have done it.”
Keith mocked him: “A sub-alliance... OK! That’s a new one.”
Jeremy answered: “It’s not a new one in Survivor.”
Everyone laughed at that.
Despite what Jeff said, Keith said it wasn’t a betrayal.
Missy countered that he was trying to pit people against Jeremy. Keith tried to explain that it wasn’t what he meant to do but Natalie told everyone what he said; making it plain that Keith was targeting Jeremy.
As if everyone ganging up on him wasn’t enough, Keith also had to worry about a crawling insect on his shoulder. His surprised reaction made everyone laugh.
Drew said he wanted to get the bad energy out and roll forward.
Kelley agreed but wondered: “Who is the bad seed in this bunch? Maybe we don’t all agree on that.”
Natalie said it would be a crucial vote; that Drew thought the girls wanted to get the guys out.
Innocently, Jeff asked: “How would the girls take out the guys? There’s only 4.”
The women all jumped in, saying: “That’s what we said.”
Drew said that no one had approached him but Kelley countered that he freaked out as soon as he got back to camp. She said: “Obviously, you have something against me.”
Natalie said: “I thought we were all on one page but everybody seems to be all scatter-brain and it’s really scary because a few stray votes can change everything.”
Jon told Jeff that he never got a full grasp of any of the strategies going around.
Jeff pointed out that it couldn’t be comforting.
Jon said he didn’t know what name to put down.
Natalie concluded by saying: “We’re a hot mess.”
It was about to get messier because Jeff sent them to vote.
When Jeff asked if anyone wanted to play the idol, Keith looked nervous but he stayed put.
The vote was all over the place:
- Keith and Reed voted against Julie
- Jon voted against Keith
- Drew voted against Kelley
- The 4 women and Jeremy voted against Drew.
During the reading of the votes, we saw Natalie’s puzzlement when she saw that both Kelley and Julie received votes, underlining the stupidity of the men’s votes. The amusement was general when another stray vote was put on Keith. When the deciding vote was shown, the main reaction came from Jon who said: “Good play, girls”
Jeff left them with a question: “Was it a brilliant Tribal or absolute chaos?”
The Story
There is a developing “Girl Power” story that we saw permeating this episode. First, the strong women of Coyopa had just gotten rid of Rocker, and then we heard that Jaclyn was strong enough to endure Exile Island. In Hunahpu, even if they didn’t have the numbers, the women managed to pull off a big blindside. The way Tribal Council was presented showed that the women were much more aware of the game being played than the guys. They mostly sat back and listened, letting most of the guys make fool of themselves. Since we heard that there are too many chiefs and not enough Indians, the stage is set for a follower to take the spoils from the battle between leaders. Who will it be?
A note in passing: Isn’t it strange that we heard so many guys being compared to girls? Nadiya said that Josh was one of the girls in episode 1. Dale said that Jon threw like a girl and Baylor said Alec was acting like a girl when they went to get tree mail.
The Characters
The Dumb Guys:
Dale: He may have been the challenge MVP but since it was all about Drew throwing the challenge, it didn’t really enhance his standing with the audience. His only intervention was to tell us that he had gotten comfortable in his alliance, neglecting the social game. In Survivor, that is enough to categorize him as one of the “Dumb Guys” especially since that alliance was with John “Off-his-Rocker”.
Reed: His best point was that he offered nothing that could have been mocked at Tribal Council. His worst point was that he offered nothing at Tribal Council. His first intervention in the episode was to ask Jeff about his return policy, so the joke was on him just as much as it was for Drew. Then, he was shown as a snitch, telling Jeremy what Keith had just said. Finally, when he told Jon that Julie had done nothing in challenges, the audience could well have thought: “And what have you done, whoever you are?” While clearly one of the followers, there isn’t enough substance to Reed’s story to see a winner’s arc.
Wes: Since Wes didn’t have a single thing to say in the episode, we are still seeing him as the young guy that is as mentally strong as a rock.
Alec: Even if Alec was still clinging to Rocker, wondering if it had been a good idea to vote him out, it has to be noted that Drew’s brother had a good episode. His best point was that he disassociated himself from his older brother. He told us that he had to work hard all his life mostly because his brother was so lazy. In order for his story is to continue to grow, he will have to convince the members of Hunahpu that he isn’t like his brother which is an interesting turn of events. His worst point in this episode came when Baylor said that he likes to boss her around and we know there are already too many chiefs. It sounds like the younger brother won’t fall much farther from the tree than his brother.
Jon: We’ve had indications that Jon isn’t the smartest guy around in previous episodes but, in this one, his comment at Tribal Council showed that he is in over his head. As Jeff pointed out, it can’t be a good thing to enter Tribal Council without knowing who the target is. He was lucky that he wasn’t voted out because that is often the case with the clueless. Now, Jon will have to disassociate himself from his former ally. That will be hard considering that Julie said they were like 2 five year olds, running around together. If that wasn’t enough then we have to keep in mind that they were as subtle about their alliance as Africa’s “Mallrats”. As Tribephyl noted, there was an evident “bromance” between Drew and Jon because they were both wearing a blue feather as jewelry, something only Drew previously had. Drew’s blue feather can be seen on Jon’s wrist in the last picture. Despite that, we’ve already had hints that Jon could go on an immunity stretch after the merge so we can’t eliminate him.
Josh: This episode completely ignored the star of the first three episodes. Some will say that it served to “cool off” his story but I don’t agree. This should have been his moment of glory, the episode where he finally took firm control of the alliance but the credit for booting the tribe’s “Villain” went entirely to Jaclyn and Baylor. I know he didn’t do anything stupid in this episode so many will argue about his inclusion with the “Dumb Guys” but the alternative is to put him with the girls and we know he doesn’t like that at all!! I will defend his inclusion in the dumb guys because he said that his tactics were madness. He argued there was method to that madness but it made him look like a sketchy player and it was much too early to reveal that trait.
Jeremy: Now, I expect that few will agree with me that Jeremy may have been the second biggest fool in this episode. First, we have to wonder if he is too emotional for this game. Most of his story was about his wife and that led to an emotional outburst that cost him a possible alliance down the road. Drew said that he was too emotional and we saw Jeremy storming off when he realized that the bartender didn’t have his back. After saying that, Jeremy sided with the girls who didn’t have his back either since they weren’t targeting Keith. Like I wrote above, we may still think of it as Jeremy’s alliance but it didn’t work that way this week. The girls used his vote for their own benefit. They had no way of going after the guys UNLESS one of the guys flipped. That vote made Jeremy quite nervous and, if we believe the symbolism of fast moving clouds, one that he could soon regret.
There are other reasons to believe that, despite his stellar edit, Jeremy is in for a fall. First, we heard that there are already tactics in place to get the pairs together. If that happens then Jeremy has to be considered the number one threat among the singletons. Even Missy was in on the discussion that was lead by Jon and we know that Missy will opt to go with her daughter if she can.
The other examples of Jeremy’s lack of game intelligence were not necessarily underlined by the editors but they were clearly implied: Since he had the same clue as Rocker, why didn’t Jeremy find the idol? It practically jumped out at Keith so it wasn’t hard to find at all but Jeremy apparently didn’t even bother to look for something that is so important in this game. Next, his argument with Keith certainly didn’t make it look like he didn’t have the idol. There has to be a few members of Hunahpu who think he does have it. Finally, his mention of an alliance with Keith, adding that they could have had sub-alliances with everybody else should have alerted his allies as much as Rocker’s revelation at the Challenge Arena. Despite all the hints that were thrown in early on, I am going to say that Jeremy won’t win this season.
Keith: No one will argue against the inclusion of Keith in the “Dumb Guys” group but, for him, it could be a good thing. Like Jeremy said, he wasn’t on anyone’s radar and, while his latest gaffe momentarily caused him to ping on the firefighter’s screen, this follower could go a long way. He simply needs time to figure it out. Sometimes a gaffe can turn into an advantage as we saw when he got people thinking that Jeremy had an idol. Is Keith shown only as comic relief or will he continue to fumble his way forward? I still consider Keith as a valid contender for the victory. Now that would be funny!
The Strong Women
Jaclyn: Michigan is well liked and she was the one that, apparently, got the guys to grow balls and get rid of their figure-head leader. We have to keep in mind that the first thing we heard about Jaclyn was that Miss Michigan was a “Survivor lady” and the rare occasions in which she has been featured have backed up that statement. The rarity of those occasions make it unlikely that Jaclyn will be our winner but there is a story arc that is growing and Jon’s mention of pairs having to stick together gives us a good indication that these two will get to play together.
Natalie: While she had some dumb moments, namely her arguments with John, Natalie was the one portrayed as leading the women’s alliance and knowing how to use the scatter-brains guys. Her intervention at Tribal Council showed that she knows how to play this game but we specifically heard her say that Drew was a bigger challenge threat than Jon. With Drew being so clearly set up as the guy that needed to be voted out, did we need to hear that he was also a challenge threat down the road? It made me think that Natalie will regret forgetting about Jon and the threats he poses, not only as an athlete but as someone who is gunning for singletons like Natalie. I could see a late challenge where the women are competing against Jon who wins immunity, forcing the women to vote against Natalie.
Julie: She was strong enough and smart enough to take John’s elimination in stride, saying that she will work for the team but we still heard that she was useless in challenges and in camp. More than that, the editors gave us visual proof that she prefers to work on her tan on the beach than in camp. Julie could very well be a long term player even if she is without a Loved One but that will happen only if someone is able to carry her to the end.
Kelley: The strong woman that intimidated Drew could very well be considered as a top contender. We heard that she is a huge fan, one that hasn’t missed an episode, we know that she is good in challenges and that puzzles are her specialty and she could be included in Jon’s Loved One alliance. However, there is a lack of substance to Kelley’s story, most of it revolving around her conflict with Drew. With him gone, could she soon follow? Players could come to the same conclusion as Drew: Her knowledge of this game makes her difficult to trust. Besides that, we heard Drew say that she was leading the ladies’ alliance and there are already too many chiefs.
Baylor: With Alec, Baylor seemed to be the only important player in Coyopa. She had a great episode, one that underlined her role in getting rid of Rocker and she told us that the positive energy can work in her favor. A “Blood” alliance would certainly create a lot of positive energy and Baylor could go a long way inside the merge’s main alliance considering how well she navigated when she was on the lower echelons of her first one. However, after hearing that Alec say she was a lot like Drew, used to getting everything she wants, we will have to continue seeing Baylor having to work hard to get ahead. If we see her coasting then we will know she won’t win.
Missy: Looking closely at this episode, I was amazed by the role played by Missy. Unlike Reed, she kept Keith’s information to herself, probably realizing that information is more useful kept than shared. Being aligned with both Keith and Jeremy, it would have given Missy a lot of power down the road to break up the brotherhood but now that information is useless. Still she was with the group when Jon and Drew first put the target on Julie and then Kelley but she acted all surprised when Natalie informed her of the situation. She then led Natalie to decide that Drew was the biggest threat, saying that Drew was more dangerous in challenges. Was it because she preferred Jon’s idea of working in pairs? She’d certainly want to keep Natalie in the dark about that strategy.
What I liked most about Missy was that she was presented as the one that knew the most but let the others slowly come to the same realization. She is one of the few Indian, certainly not a chief but she looked like the Indian in waiting, the one that will let the chiefs kill each other. Right now, Missy holds all the cards because she is trusted by everyone. Even Drew told her about his idea to eliminate Kelley. Granted, he didn’t think her vote would matter but he didn’t want to keep her out of the loop which means something in this game. I’ll want to see how the swap turns out but, right now; I have to think that Missy could be our Sole Survivor.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-21-14, 02:59 AM (EST)

43. "RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls"

Missy once again showing how far the older women can get in this game because they know how to play smart and either play hard later or get picked off. We'll see with her.
If this isn't a no sources thread, Drew said on SL that Reed was causing a lot of drama. This in accordance to him ratting out Keith, wimpily the first time asking to trade for flint and later about the return policy. Makes a lot of sense. Drew even said he or Julie was the target before the other stuff went down with Drew and Keith.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-21-14, 08:15 PM (EST)

46. "RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls"

Interesting point, Outsider. Missy looks more level headed than some of the more mature women we've seen lately.
I'd much prefer to keep this thread for what is seen during the episodes but Survivor Live is under CBS control so I don't consider it a source spoiler. The same goes with the Insider clips. It's boot lists and F3 revelations that should remain out of a speculation thread like this one.
I just don't know what the information tells us though. The show hasn't presented Reed as negatively as Drew paints him but we can't say there has been anything positive about him either.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-21-14, 12:09 PM (EST)

44. "RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls"

LAST EDITED ON 10-21-14 AT 12:34 PM (EST)

Thanks again, michel for the very thorough account for the episode and how it was edited. I see it very similarly!
This is kind of a fun start to the season...the early votes are going all over the place! It seems as though one tribe is prevailing but when they go to their first TC, they are a truly "a hot mess"! Seemed as it took Coyopa three rounds to get it together, but from the promos we will not get to see Hunahpu get their act together. (the writing was on the wall though)
I love the timing of this swap....just as it seems the hierarchy of the tribes is starting to shake out, there is a mash up. Perfect!
I felt that Baylor getting the confessional about the vote, while Josh and his part in it was ignored, did indeed make it seem to benefit the girls vs. the boys...perhaps it was edited this way as a foreshadowing as to how the rest of the episode would shake out... at Hunahpu...girls defeating boy. This episode was definitely a nod to the girls. No. Doubt. About. It.
The events would give Kelley a much better role than Drew, but, now that he is gone, what role is left for our farmer’s daughter?
Very astute question, Michel...very astute. Also, great pick up on Alec’s narration role as a means to highlight his brothers fate, and the impact that his loss will have on Alec later. I agree. But, it could also be a start of an arc as well.
The fact that Julie and her reaction to John going was minimized with one confessional from her I think may bode well for her, All I can do is try my best and get myself back in the game. Seems as though she got a nod, and they move on with the game, exactly what she says she is going to do...this was a bit foreshadowing as to her fate later in the game as well, when at TC she did receive a few votes, a nod so to speak, but someone else shined brighter and she slipped past and back into the game.
Good pick up on the clue at Exile island, but, remember it’s a clue to both tribes hidden idol...so I question if there is a new idol buried or not?
Clearly, Drew has thrown his entire hand in with Jon and their plan to work with Alec and Jacklyn post merge. It comes across as it’s his plan to throw the challenge so the Coyopa tribe will not lose, and he can get rid of snakes on his tribe, namely the untrustworthy girls. Pitting Drew against the girls. Is this Drew’s plan, or Jon’s or both? I would have been happy to have gotten to see how this plan was hatched. By the editing, Drew takes all the credit, but I believe there is more to it. Clearly, they had planned to send Drew to EI if Jacklyn/Jon competed and she lost. Don’t think we are seeing what is presented at face value.
When Reed ran off to tell Jeremy of Keith telling everyone that Jeremy had the idol, I was reminded of the omissions that Jeremy made when he talked about the dumb guys. He never called Reed dumb or put him with Drew/Jon. So, this makes me think that Reed has some kind of deal with Jeremy that we did not see.
Now, in regard to Keith, I loved it! He found the idol and he kept it to himself, all the while saying it may have been a good thing to put it on Jeremy. Keith is playing a smarter game than all of them at Hunahpu...so far, imo. As michel noted, figuring it out!
I saw the bickering between Alec and Baylor as more girls vs boys...Alec, Drew’s brother, got to explain his rationale, but I still thought he appeared ridiculous, especially in a social game that hinges on bonds. Comparing it to Kelly and Drew bickering on Hunahpu...Drew looks like a dumb player, Alec, the younger brother, looks quite the same, imo.
Recalling one of the themes that you and Georgiana noted, the family theme. Baylor/Alec, Drew/Kelly are falling into sibling rivalry in a big way. They are acting like the competitive peers/siblings that they are...but, will one of the kids win this show, or one of the parental figures? Of them all, Baylor nailed it with her confessional...Alec feels like a little brother. She gets it, and him.
Next we had the challenge and Drew basically following through and executing his plan. Then back at camp the drama begins with Jon...
we heard Jon talking to Missy, Reed and Keith: “Here’s my idea: I fear that, going into the merge, the individuals are going to outnumber the couples (we see Julie and Natalie as examples of individuals to target) So we need to take out people that don’t have a loved one right now.” With them agreeing, Jon added: “That’s why I think Julie is an easy vote and she hurts our team.”
I thought this was a significant insight in to a major strategy for the season...instead of singles to the end, he’s proposing couples staying strong to the end. It also shows that Jon is paying attention. I also thought because he didn’t choose to target Natalie or Jeremy, he may be playing an angle with them as well...His follow-up confessional was logical....
“My argument today was that Julie should be the one to go. She hasn’t really been helping in challenges and she doesn’t help around camp, it would be an easy one to agree on, but most importantly; she doesn’t have a Loved One.
Sound and rational. Then, Drew, who is coming across as dumb, interjects his rationale for Kelly, who he thinks is the most dangerous person in the game right now...we see no one agreeing with him, so it appears that this suggestion is indeed dumb.
Then we hear something from the “future promo” from Jeremy...if someone is after you, I am going to go after that person. Clearly this was implying that Jeremy had a side alliance with the guys, as we see them talking and arguing. It seems that Jeremy’s idea of what an alliance means is definitely conflicting with how Drew and Keith see an alliance.
Frankly, I did see this scene as disasterous for this alliance as Drew is adamant and stubborn with his pick, while Jeremy is un-relenting with his choice as well. Crazy.
We heard from Missy that since the boys were all over the place, now would be a good time to target Drew. Natalie said that Drew would be the first choice out of he and Jon to win IC’s later, and then Missy said, maybe we should get out Drew first. Clearly, this is a girls vs. guys episode.
Natalie talked to Jeremy, telling him that Missy was down with getting rid of Drew. She added that they could get Jon, tell him that Drew is leading him the wrong path. Well, it seemed like they were indeed able to “get” Jon because Jon apparently went with Jeremy because he agreed with his definition of an alliance...if someone is going after you, I will go after that person and you will do the same for me....he voted for Keith.
Jeremy refused to go with Drew, and Drew refused to go with Jeremy. Jeremy fell back to his original plan “A”, his girls. The alliance that was shown. Jeremy played like a “girl” at TC when he got emotional about Keith throwing him under the bus. I agree, I can’t help but to think the girls were only an option for Jeremy but it was the girls alliance that used him.
Missy was sound at TC, pointing out who gets along, Drew and Jon, and too many chiefs, and too many selfish players. Clearly, she’s the mom of the tribe.
I also thought Jon was sound admitting that he didn’t have a full grasp of any of the strategies going around and he didn’t know what name to write down...
The vote revealed to me that Jon went with Jeremy, Drew stayed true to himself, Keith/Reed stayed true to Jon and the “couples to the end vs. singles” rationale, and Jeremy screwed them all by going with the girls. Clearly, the girls were the smartest ones in this scenario, united and victorious.
My thoughts are similar to yours, the girls stock is going up in this game. There are themes emerging, namely, girls vs. boys, younger vs. older, couples vs. singles, chiefs vs. indians.
My thoughts:
Agreed the girls were the break out stars of the show, getting credit for the “big move” at Coyopa, as well as remaining solidily unified and triumphing over the big strong guy.
Dale’s edit is not looking good. He even admitted he could be “toast”. Alec looked ridiculous to me as the little brother and I do think he stepped up with narration due to the fact that he’s being set up to react to the loss of big brother, Drew. Wes and Josh flying under the radar. It can’t be good that Josh had nothing after the Rocker vote out.
Baylor and Jacklyn got all the love and credit from the editors and Baylor seems level headed and positive now and perceptive. She’s lookin’ good! Jacklyn by association, perhaps?
At Hunahpu, they were a freakin’ hot mess! The girls were far more perceptive, and read the situation accurately. Jeremy did look immature to me, stubborn, and emotional. It seemed as if he went with the girls as a last resort. Who’s playing who?
Reed: Really not much from him other than he was the one to rat out Keith, not Jeremy’s so called alliance mates. Reed is on board with the couples strategy, as was Keith.
Keith: I think Keith is looking good...he threw Jeremy under the bus, but called him out at TC with alliances and sub-alliances...he’ll figure it out! He didn’t tell anyone that he found the idol. Well done, Keith!
Jon: Jon had alot of fun with Drew, the other young D1 athlete there, and I think he got his early game handed to him on a silver platter tonight, but can he learn from it? He had several very astute and logical confessionals and arguments, namely the thought to target Julie, who would have been someone they all could have agreed on, while at the same time she wasn’t part of a couple. But, he could convince some, but not others. Clearly, he didn’t know who was with him or against him....he does now! I also thought he made sense at TC, recognizing that he didn’t know what the heck was happening, but clearly wanting to get on the same page. He was excluded and it better be a wake up call, or he will be the one at Hunahpu noting, he’ll be toast!
Julie doing exactly what she said in confessional...I love him, but I am getting on with my game now. Kelly, constantly seen in conflict with Drew and called out as the “player”, yet it was Missy that was edited as making it happen. Dismissive of Kelly cannot be a good thing. Missy is looking good in this tribe, and with the swap coming, she and Baylor could really be the heart and soul of this season?

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-21-14, 08:04 PM (EST)

45. "RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls"

I really enjoyed your input, FP.

I've had a lot of back and forth over at RHAP for the Coyopa scene. It made me think that the intent of the scene was to show that Coyopa was an immature tribe. Hunahpu, by contrast, was a more mature tribe and they got rid of their most immature member.
If that was the thing to remember from that scene then our winner has to be a mature member of Hunahpu (even if Josh wasn't exactly included in the immaturity) Missy, Keith, Natalie and Jeremy are the most mature members of Hunahpu but there is a lot of little boy in Keith while Jeremy and Natalie have acted very emotionally, acting like chidren yelling names at Rocker. That would leave Missy...

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-22-14, 07:15 PM (EST)

47. "RE: Episode 4 - Good Play, Girls"

You definitely could look at that Coyopa scene to highlight the "children" and their bickering. Clearly a tie to Drew, who was the target later on. Yes, Missy is clearly the most mature and maternal one on Hunahpu. It was all highlighted nicely with the Rocker drama. Jeremy projected everything on to Rocker as his fault, than "tattled" to his tribe about him, then Natalie and Drew especially goaded Rocker on...and it was Missy that was sensitive to Julie despite Jeremy's dismissal of her. What's interesting is the way Jiffy played up Missy and Baylor was that Baylor had to be the "mom" when her own mother kept getting involved in failing relationships. He made it sound pre-game that Missy was more the "mother" in the relationship. It will be interesting to see how they interact when reunited....

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-25-14, 12:57 PM (EST)

48. "Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

LAST EDITED ON 10-25-14 AT 02:53 PM (EST)
Previously on Survivor, since day 1, Blood versus Water has been the tale of 2 tribes heading in opposite directions. Coyopa couldn’t win a challenge and they weren’t getting along (we hear Val saying that Baylor told her to vote Dale)
Hunahpu was unbeaten (Reed shown doing his stretch) and living like kings but even they couldn’t live in peace. (We see Keith telling everyone that Jeremy has an idol, we hear Jeremy’s trying to rally the group against Keith and finally Drew is heard saying they need to get the snakes out of the tribe.)
Drew decided to throw the immunity challenge but, at tribal Council, his plan backfired as a majority came together to blindside Drew, leaving his lone ally, Jon, in shock.
While this recap is much more in tune with what we saw than the one we were served last week, it still changes our perceptions of the events.
First, we only heard Keith say that they should keep in mind that Jeremy has an idol, so it make it look once more like Val’s husband over-reacted when he said that Keith wanted to vote him out.
More importantly, it wasn’t the girls or Jeremy that were credited with getting Drew but simply an unnamed “majority”. (We did see the voters minus Missy though) Jeff could have told us that Natalie and Missy set the stage for Drew’s comeuppance or that Jeremy’s alliance was in charge but it was presented simply as a majority turning on Drew.
When we heard Jon’s reaction to the vote, it wasn’t to say “Good Play, Girls” like we originally heard but only “Good Play” and it was directed at Kelley.
Jeff also neglected to say that Jon wasn’t the only one left in shock because Keith and Reed were also left out of the majority. Jeff’s words lead us to believe that Jon was the only one in the dark which makes for a nice underdog story.
The Honeymoon
Hunahpu Day 10
The tribe’s entrance was accompanied by a very loud war drums. The return from that “learning experience” was going to be a serious scene.
Jon gave the first interview: “Tribal was freaking insane. I was definitely one of the odd ones out. Drew was definitely a friend of mine but he stepped on a lot of peoples’ toes the last few days. I am very nervous and I have a lot of damage control to do.” We heard him telling the tribe that he would have been on board if they had told him about the vote. Kelley told him he would be much better off without Drew.
How prophetic of Kelley! It really didn’t take time for Jon to find a better game partner and a better situation! The question after this episode is just how much better off will Jon be? I'd say that this episode put him at the top of my list of "suspects".
Jeremy looked very happy when he gave his interview: “Jon is on his apology tour because he knows he will be gone next.” We then saw Jon talking in private to Jeremy, saying he should have gone to him and apologizing for not doing it. Jeremy’s interview continued: “He comes to me and I didn’t have to do anything; I just swooped him up. You know what I mean?! This is beautiful. I’m right in the middle of where I want to be. This is perfect. I’m in a beautiful spot right now.”
Kim had a few confessionals where we heard her say that things were going well for her but she never looked on her allies with condescension the way Jeremy constantly does. The body language was that of a king looking down on someone, passing judgment. Jon wasn’t the next one to go so Jeremy may regret this moment. Instead of making Jon want to work for him, I’d say that Jeremy’s arrogance could very well have made Jon want to find the right time to knock him off his throne.
Coyopa Day 11
After Wes read tree mail (Another writer’s pathetic attempt to be funny.) we heard Dale say that it was good that they’d walk in first this time while the other tribe would do the walk of shame in front of them. It led to questions about the identity of the person voted out.
Josh (solo): “Someone coined walking into the arena with one less person, the “Walk of Shame” and, since we won immunity, it’s going to be nice to have the other team do it except if it’s your Loved One that is not there.”
We saw a close up of Alec when he said: “I just don’t see Drew being the one voted out first on his tribe.”
Alec gave an interview: “There’s another challenge in the arena and I will be absolutely excited to face off against Drew. He socked me in the mouth a couple of times already but I’m still standing and if I can sock him and knock him down, I’m gonna.”
It seems that Alec’s new role is to make us chuckle. For now, I think his brother was still funnier.
The Grandstands
Jeff noticed the shocked faces and the emotions so he turned to Alec who said: “I don’t get it. I thought Drew was one of their best players over there.” Alec turned to Hunahpu, asking if Drew was seen as a big threat but he only got silence as an answer. Baylor explained her shock by saying that she thought Drew was Mr Popular. That got some laughs from Kelley and Missy. Jeff told Josh that he was shocked to see so many shocked reactions. Josh agreed, saying that they don’t know the dynamics of the other tribe and that it sucked.
Jeff told them to drop their buffs. We heard Kelley saying that she knew it while Baylor exclaimed: “Son of a Gun.”
After the commercials, we had an instant replay of the players’ shocked reactions. Asked if she was happy at the prospect of playing with her dad, Kelley said that she didn’t know because the singles would feel a little bit free while the ones with Loved Ones are looked as targets. Jeremy agreed that it was dangerous to be in a pair but said he’d prefer to see Val on the other side. Josh said he didn’t know what he wanted because he got close to his tribe but could now be with his Loved One.
It was interesting that the pairs were said to be in danger like they were in the first Blood versus Water. The editors always put some doubts, some obstacles on the road to victory, so these words could be telling us that the pairs will succeed. That would simply be normal. These players don’t have the previous relations that enabled many of the returning players to gel even if they were singles.
The new tribes were:
- Hunahpu: Jeremy, Natalie, Julie, Alec, Wes, Josh and Reed.
- Coyopa: Missy, Baylor, Jon, Jaclyn, Kelley, Dale, Keith.
Reed and Josh kissed as did Jon and Jaclyn.
Jeff pointed out the asymmetry between tribes but didn’t point to the obvious unbalance in physical strength between the two. Hunahpu should be unbeatable in physical challenges. (I bet there won’t be a puzzle or a balance beam in the immediate future to make sure that the Blue tribe remains intact)
Asked how he felt being the lone single on his tribe, Keith said it didn’t feel good but that they’d do Ok. Reed told Jeff that he could be a target since he represented two votes. Jeremy was seen listening intently at that answer.
Jeff sent them back to camp, giving them the chance to get to know each other.
Jon gave an interview: “When I first realized that Jaclyn and I were going to be on the same tribe, it was an extremely happy moment right when I needed it. When I was in Hunahpu, I was on the wrong side of the numbers so the tribe swap came at the right time. It’s a whole game changer.”
Survivor has had quite a few showmances, some less appreciated than others but this is a real romance so we know the editors will use it for all its worth. Despite that proviso, there was much more substance to Jon and Jaclyn’s story that just their romance. Was it only due to the vote? We will be able to tell by the way this pair evolves now that they are in charge. Will it be simply about their love story or will we hear about their long term connections with others?
Hunahpu
Julie and Natalie greeted the new comers.
Josh said their place was twice the size and they had plenty of food over there. Realizing there was only a few scoops of rice left, Hunahpu had to admit they were eating two portions a day while Coyopa was on one meal a day.
Wes gave an interview: “We come to a new tribe, a new camp and it sucks kinda because the food situation on this camp is horrible. I don’t know what they were thinking since they got this much rice left and they got twenty-some days. We probably had more than half a bag and they got a handful of rice left so it had to be why they were winning.”
Imagine that: Wes is the one the editors chose to tell us that Coyopa was smarter about rationing their food supply than Hunahpu. That can’t be good for the present members of Hunahpu. The ones that left were also responsible but the comment was directed at the 4 present.
Alec said he was bummed but that they would figure it out.
Jeremy gave us an interview: “This morning, I wasn’t on anyone’s radar and I could do whatever I wanted and what happens? My worst nightmare: A tribe swap. We get Wes and Alec and Josh together on our tribe. So, all they have to do is Josh work his magic on Reed and Reed could jump ship and my game is history. They are going to go right after me. I guarantee that.”
I wonder why Jeremy didn’t try to work his magic on Josh and Reed, offering them a Final 4 deal with Natalie. This confessional made it look like Jeremy never even considered it.
It was Josh’s turn to give us his thoughts: “I’m so excited about the switch and I was excited to actually play with Reed. I’ve been wondering what’s been going on with him. My relationship with Reed definitely gave me the strength to come out to my family and to my friends. I grew up a very conservative Christian...Not everyone agrees with how I am living my life. We’ve been together for two years and... it’s that level of commitment that’s going to take us all the way to the end.”
If we are to judge by the image of the big wave submerging him then we can say that the road to the end may not be as easy as Josh thinks.
Coyopa
We saw a howler monkey jump from one tree to the next, demonstrating a lot of skills and balance in doing so. It seemed to symbolise Jon’s leap from Hunahpu to Coyopa.
We heard more of Jon’s interview (he was sitting at the same spot as before so this interview was taken at the same time as the one heard right after the swap.): “My first steps on the new Coyopa camp: It’s good. I feel good about it. They got a bunch of rice and I was like Yesss! We get to eat! I couldn’t have been happier but even more importantly; I am on the same tribe as Jaclyn.” We saw him kissing his girlfriend while saying: “I don’t care what implications this has. I’m just pumped.” His interview continued: “Being here with Jaclyn right now is a huge weight off my shoulders. She knows everything that is going on in my life especially my dad right now is dying of brain cancer. Jaclyn has been there for me every step of the way. I am excited that I can actually share so much of this experience with her and even more excited that it seems like we can help each other.”
While his “we get to eat” isn’t very smart considering the previous scene, it’s good for Jon’s chances that we remained connected with his personal drama. If we go back to the introduction videos, Jaclyn also shared her personal drama, her inability to have children but that hasn’t been mentioned during the season. We just heard Jon say that Jaclyn will be able to support him and that seems to be her role, a supporting actress.
Jaclyn gave us an interview also: “When Jon got a yellow buff I was like: I have no idea what this means for my individual game right now. It’s unheard of: To have someone playing with you that you trust 100 percent. It’s kind of crazy.” (The scene below was shown here) “We’ve been together for three years and we definitely know how to work together as a team...in this kind of situation.”
In the middle of her confessional we heard Jaclyn tell Jon about the alliance of guys on the original Coyopa and Baylor flipping back and forth. She added: “I don’t trust Baylor or Josh. And Baylor knows that”.
Seeing the couple kissing one more time, Baylor looked quite envious. Jaclyn said: “You guys are going to hate us” to which Baylor answered “No I love it. So cute.”
Baylor in confessional: “Jaclyn and Jon are in love. It was like I was watching a honeymoon. I’m totally jealous. I’m sitting here single, twenty, hanging out with my mom. My mom and I are both single. My mom has made her share of mistakes...My time will come. My mom’s next time will come. Ha! Ha! Ha!”
Keith (solo): “Brand new tribe. It is a little weird being the odd man out. I don’t know: It’s a mom and a daughter, it’s a daddy and a daughter and it’s a guy and a girlfriend. I’m kinda between a rock and a hard place. I might be by myself but I got a little idol. As a matter of fact, it’s in my boot. If all else fails: I got the back-up plan. That’s always an ace in the hole”
We had another helicopter shot, this time of Keith observing his new tribe. Could this be the right one?! We can at least say it wasn’t used ironically like it was for Drew who was seen as the “Fool on the Hill” instead of the King of San Juan del Sur. This last sequence showed Keith attempting to be the provider for his tribe, going for the role of the father in Coyopa, a role that Dale failed to assume.

Hunahpu
The tribe was talking about the difficulty of the game. Alec said it takes a strong mind and body.
Alec gave an interview: “I feel pretty good about the new tribe to be honest. I feel like we have the more athletic of the two tribes. Maybe my tribe won’t suck like the last one. It’s only day eleven and I’m fine. I feel good. I think that I’ve proven that I am not in my brother’s shadow anymore. I outlasted him in the game so, for the first time in my life, I can say that I beat Drew.”
This confessional signals the end of Alec’s sibling rivalry story. We will need to see him pick up a new storyline if he is to last deep into the game and have an impact on it. It could be that he will be the deciding factor between the original singles of Hunahpu and the pairs of Coyopa. Are there any doubts about where he’d go? It would be very surprising to see Alec flip on Josh and Wes to go with Jeremy and Natalie, two players that played a key role in eliminating Drew.
A snake accompanied Natalie and Jeremy as they went to the well. Natalie was saying that Alec was like his brother, contradicting Alec who had just said he had stepped out of his brother’s shadow. Jeremy didn’t care because they needed Alec right now.
Jeremy said he needed Alec but what will happen when his vote against Drew is revealed? With Reed there to spill the beans, it’s only a matter of time before Alec chooses to avenge his brother.
Jeremy in interview: “I can only assume that Reed jumped ship with Josh, Wes and Alec. I’m hoping that I can say to Alec: Just roll with us. Alec; he is by himself, he is a single. The couples are not going to break their bond. He’s going to be out if he sticks with Josh and Reed. I’m a firefighter and we have this thing called: Surround and Drown... If (a fire) gets out of control... everybody stays outside with their hoses; surround it and drown it. That’s what we need to do. We need to drown him with the water of the singles. I’m definitely going to play to Alec’s ego. He’s just like his brother. It’s like a little Drew but I’m still working on him.”
Did Jeremy really only assume that Reed was a lost cause? These words seem to imply that there were frictions between Jeremy and Reed that weren’t shown or that Jeremy never really talked to Reed before the swap. Was he that comfortable in his alliance? He was in such a beautiful spot that he may have neglected the social game, the need to keep everyone happy.
We saw Natalie and Jeremy taking turns talking to Alec but, strangely, Julie didn’t participate in the plan to surround him. Since Alec liked Rocker, maybe she would have been the one to convince him. It really didn’t look like the singles made any progress with Alec.
Coyopa
Missy was cooking rice, a lot of rice, way too much rice according to Dale. Realizing this, Missy told Baylor: “He is monitoring me.”
Missy in confessional: “There is a ton of rice over at this camp and Dale is on monitor duty about how much they have. It’s not how we did it over there. We made so much more than this.” Dramatic chords were heard in the background when Baylor told her mom that Dale had been trying to get her voted out from the beginning. Missy’s confessional continued: “My daughter told me that Dale has tried to vote her out pretty much the entire time. It’s hard when you hear that someone is not being nice to your kid. I’m just telling you: Blood is Blood. So, in this experience, the only thing I want to protect my kid from is that guy picking on her.”
Dale was heard saying “One less mouth in three days” to no one in particular before giving an interview: “Our tribe has been doing real good about rice. We’ve still got two thirds of our jug left and then Missy comes in and starts dishing out double helpings. I was biting my lip hard enough to draw blood because it took every bit of self control not to walk over and slap those rice dishes out of their hands and say: Guys, this is our camp, this is my rice. Stay the hell away from it.”
Kelley gave us an interview also: “I’m almost waiting for Missy and my dad to get into a battle over the rice. I see it forming. Missy plays that sweet mom role but she can be a bit of a diva and my dad is a small town, hard-working, farm man and he doesn’t deal with that kind of stuff. I’m really happy to be playing with my dad but he is really set in his ways and says what’s on his mind. There are certain things that he does that I think can bother people a little bit. In the long run, getting into a fight with someone over an extra scoop of rice could get you voted out next time. I’m going to play peacemaker. I have to otherwise my dad is going to put a big bull’s eye on his back which puts a bull’s eye on my back.”
Even after Kelley tried to calm him down, Dale said: “She’s a self-centered, bossy #####.”
Hearing Kelley call Missy a diva which Dale raised to self-centered, bossy #####, I assume that most editing analysts will say that Missy cannot win but I won’t go that far yet. In fact, this may have been her finest moment up to date. It confirmed her role as the mother of the tribe and she gave her “kids” exactly what they needed: Food. The game in Coyopa was coming down to a power play to align with Jon and Jaclyn and we had just heard that Jon was ecstatic at the idea of having plenty of rice to eat. Missy probably knows that the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach so it’s possible that this meal played a big role down the line. Who had the upper hand in attracting Jon? Since the choice was between a militaristic “father” who was on rice monitoring duty and a doting mom that kept saying “have some more, have some more” no one should be surprised by the outcome. Also, Missy knew that Dale was getting upset. “He is monitoring me” she said so maybe she added some rice just to irk him even more. Of course, I will be listening to the next recap, waiting to see if Jeff says that Missy wasted rice or simply mentions that she fed the tribe if he says anything at all.

Hunahpu Day 13
The tribe was lethargic when Reed gave us an interview: “The food is getting dire. We are down to a handful of rice, a handful of beans and it takes its toll.”
(Julie was shown resting in the shelter, looking exhausted)
Josh then gave us his thoughts: “On our tribe, we were eating once a day. We could have gone 39 days easily the way we were going. Here, we have three days of food left and then what? I’m shocked to be honest that people weren’t smarter. There were some very foolhardy players on this side. It’s really, really frustrating. I don’t know what we are going to do.”
Reed was hallucinating, thinking the vultures were actually rotisserie chicken. Alec said those vultures were disgusting but Josh’s mouth was watering at the thought. Alec said they had to propose some trade to Jeff.
Reed (solo): “I feel that the last time we tried to barter with Jeff, it kind of made us all look like a little foolish because this is not Survivor market. But, if that is what it takes, that’s what we are going to have to settle for because we need food to be competitive.”
The vultures were just there, teasing them as they walked to the challenge area.
The Immunity challenge
Even though Hunahpu was digging harder and faster, it sure looked like their bag wasn’t buried as much as Coyopa’s. Hunahpu got out to a huge lead and never really looked back. Maybe some were amused to see them all looking like they were feathered and tarred but what a waste of time. Jeff had the audacity to blame it on lack of communications among the Loved Ones when Coyopa was simply outmatched. Jeff could have simply given immunity to Hunahpu.
After Coyopa was dismissed, Reed asked Jeff for a few minutes to talk to him. Jeff knew that this conversation would be good. Reed explained that they wanted to trade for a bag of rice. Jeff said the tribe had to pay for eating so much. He told them it would be costly but that he had to take care of Tribal Council first so he’d see them in the morning.
For some reason, it was Julie that gave us a confessional: “Jeff said that he would come to our camp to discuss some sort of a trade. We need to negotiate something in order to get more rice but that’s really going to be heavy, that is going to hit hard. I’m not really sure what is going to happen. I’m scared.”
Coyopa Day 13
If we go by the music then we should feel sorry for this tribe’s loss. The muddy figures got back to camp to a melancholic air.
Keith gave an interview: “The fact that we lost this challenge, it seems that these three couples would be gunning to get me. That’s just a free vote. They wouldn’t lose none of their Loved Ones. Keith would be gone, everything would be good. But, of the three couples, one doesn’t like the other so that could be real good for me. We’ll see tonight at Tribal.”
Keith is getting a nice narrator role here. Of course, it could simply be because of his particular situation but it’s always good to have confessionals about tribal dynamics, to keep a player on our mind. Keith is in for the long run.
Dale stepped to the microphone next: “It’s three couples and Keith so, if you can get another couple, you control our tribe. It’s as simple as that: It’s four against three. The way Missy and Baylor have both been around camp are one of the key things driving my vote. Missy is very pushy around camp and Baylor has proven in the past that she will tell somebody to vote one way and then she changes her vote at the last minute and that makes you nervous as hell at this stage of the game. So, we absolutely have to work with Jon and Jaclyn because they are swing votes. Now it’s scramble city.”
Dale told Jon and Jaclyn that Baylor flips and flops. Jaclyn agreed that it was risky and scary. Jon wondered about Missy but Kelley told him she was the same.
The audience knows that Baylor is unreliable but Missy has never been disloyal so this whole scene is more damaging to the daughter than the mother.
Kelley had a confessional in which she told us they were working on Jon and Jaclyn. She added: “The point is to choose a pair and that’s the name of the game. I’m choosing Jon and Jaclyn. Missy and Baylor are out.”
Dale was happy that it was a new game: “I’ve got your back, Michigan.”
Jon gave us an interview: “We have so many couples here that it really is all about finding your couple that you match up with. The most important thing is to read a situation and be able to say: Is this the best thing for me now? So, I’m leaving room to make adjustments.”
This confessional tells us that Jon could very well be our winner. This whole game is about reading people and adapting to changing situations. Jon expressed it very nicely. This could very well be a clip that will be used at the reunion if Jon is indeed the Sole Survivor.
Jon and Jaclyn agreed that they had to get to know people better. They talked with Missy and Baylor who had to explain why she voted with the guys, going against Jaclyn.
Baylor (solo): “Prior to the switch, Jaclyn and I never really worked together one on one so this is a new ball game between me and her for sure. My mom and I put some cards on the table. Hopefully they choose us over Dale and Kelley.”
The following scene was shown in the middle of Baylor’s confessional: Missy asked Jaclyn about Dale. Miss Michigan said he was supposed to be the next out. Missy said: “I hate to say this but those two could be huge, huge threats to the end because they are so smart.”
I think we can assume that the choice came down to Jon’s previous relations inside Hunahpu since Jaclyn had equal reasons to worry about Baylor and Dale. We noted early on that Missy had interacted with everyone on her original tribe so I have no trouble imagining that she got a lot closer to Jon than Kelley ever did. You always have to keep your options open, something that a few players seem to have neglected, especially those that were in a beautiful spot.
When Dale and Kelley walked out of camp, Missy was quick to point out that they were going to look for an idol. Missy proposed splitting the vote.
Jaclyn in interview: “What makes me nervous about working with Missy and Baylor right now is because of Baylor’s past. The basic idea is that Baylor flipped on me once and she could do it again. But Dale is sneaky and I’m sure that his daughter is the same way. Missy and Baylor want us and Kelley and Dale want us and we both keep telling them: Yeah! We’re in. If we are planning on teaming up with Dale and Kelley, Jon and I are voting Baylor. If we’re teaming up with Baylor and Missy then we are splitting the vote in case there is an immunity idol and one of them plays it. This is a huge decision tonight. It will determine which couple we may or may not be playing with later. Knocking out one of them is a big move. You’re going to have to vote out somebody’s Loved One and somebody is not going to be happy.”
During this confessional, we heard the two pairs in waiting saying that they felt good about Jon and Jaclyn’s decision. Missy and Baylor even told Keith that it was all good.
Tribal Council
I noted that Baylor and Kelley were at the two extremities, making the division very clear. Also noteworthy was Keith’s position: He was placed right between mother and daughter. I took that as a hint that those three are now solidly together, a newly assembled family with Jon and Jaclyn ready to join.
Jeff went directly to Keith, asking him if he felt in danger.
Keith said that he did initially but that some of his team mates came with him. (Missy was highlighted right then). He added: “It seems to have its good and bad. I hope it’s not six to one. If it is, I’ve been really had.”
Jeff asked Jaclyn about the fact that Keith was only one vote; that two coupes would have to gang up on one at some point.
Jaclyn told him that it will be hard to maintain relationship with the remaining Loved One.
Jeff brought up the fact that they were 7, an odd number, which was a good time to make a move
Relax Jeff; they don’t need you to make that “big” move.
Jon simply answered that he was glad he could talk to Jaclyn because he trusted her.
Dale told Jeff that he spoke very little to Baylor.
Asked about the friction with Dale and Kelley, Baylor said that things had gotten crazy but it didn’t mean she didn’t like Dale.
He threw it back at her, reminding Jeff that she had gotten all the girls to vote against him at the first TC and that she then aligned with the guys.
Jeff finally realized that Jaclyn and Jon were the couple to go to.
Jaclyn said they were in a good position to be strategic.
(That got a reaction from Missy)
Dale said that Jaclyn and Jon were the hottest couple in camp right now. Baylor corrected him: “They are the hottest couple period.”
Kelley explained that the friction between her father and Baylor prevented her from working with Baylor.
Missy told Jeff that the only thoughts were spinning in her head. She said she was like a mama bear: “I can’t get over the fact that Dale has been gunning for my daughter this whole time without me there. So I’m kind of stuck on that.”
Dale replied that Baylor came after him first.
Baylor said it was simply the case of being at the first tribal where no one knows what to do.
Missy said that Dale’s vote against her daughter put a damper on her relation with Kelley. “I’m going to protect my kid. That’s just a no-brainer.”
Jeff asked Keith if the two parents were screwing up their game by protecting their kids.
Keith answered that it was great for him but that he was with Missy and Dale because someone was going to be disappointed.
Dale concluded by saying: “There’s no way to vote somebody out and feel good about it.”
It was time to vote.
There were 2 votes against Baylor and Dale, three against Kelley. They all came from the other women.
After snuffing Kelley’s torch, Jeff asked the tribe if they could work as a tribe after voting out a Loved One.

The Story
In this episode, we heard that the name of the game is to choose a pair and I believe that the game will come down to pairs. We still have four in the game even if Keith and Wes are on opposite tribes. If the merger is at twelve then all four pairs are likely to make it. Coyopa can go to another Tribal Council with the couples in charge and it seems that Jeremy’s “Surround and Drown” plan with Alec won’t float. Jeremy, Natalie and Julie have to hope that their challenge strength carries them to the merger because Josh, Reed, Wes and Alec should control the votes. A delayed merger should still contain at least three pairs which would then be a majority voting bloc.
After the merger, it most likely comes down to something Jon said: “It really is all about finding your couple that you match up with.” We can already look at the possible matches. It seems that the two pairs of lovers have no bonds between them because Jon wasn’t aligned with Reed while Jaclyn was playing against Josh. Wes has a connection with Josh but not with Jaclyn while Keith and Reed weren’t together on Hunahpu. If Keith knows that Reed was the one that alerted Jeremy it could even burn that bridge completely. The couple that matches the most with the others is Missy and Baylor. They have gained a strong connection with Jon and Jaclyn, Missy gets along nicely with Keith and we never saw a conflict between her and Reed while Baylor was aligned with Josh and Wes. They are in a prime position to choose a pair... and flip on another! Will Jaclyn regret staying with Baylor? Maybe, but that should be far down the road. It would seem that a Final six with the father and son team of firefighters, the mother daughter team of cheerleaders and the hot Michigan couple is the most likely outcome to this story.
The Characters
These players are in trouble because this version of Blood versus Water isn’t going to favor the Singles:
Dale: This dead-man walking is reduced to bluffing his way to stay three more days. Of course, if he succeeds then he could be saved by the merger but it seems that the farmer has been much more irritating than we have been shown.

Julie: Her only intervention of the episode was to tell us about the tribe’s talk with Jeff which scared her. I think she should be more scared about Jeremy’s plan to drop Reed and work on getting Alec to change alliance. If Alec is conflicted at all, if he wants to keep his options open, then Julie becomes an easy vote... again.
Natalie: Even if she played a big part in getting rid of Drew, her role wasn’t underlined in the recap and we continually see her as Jeremy’s follower. Every time she says something, Jeremy is there to point out her mistake. So, even if the singles manage to take over, Natalie’s role isn’t going to be rewarded.

Alec: He remained stoned-face when Natalie and Jeremy surrounded him. That made it look like he was far from drowning. While he did express some doubts about Josh and Wes’ strategy, especially when it came to Rocker, we haven’t seen any hints that he would betray them.
Jeremy: If Jeremy has lost Reed like he says, then he has also lost Josh, Wes and Alec. His plan of working with Alec is bound to fail because of his role in eliminating Drew but his tribe is unlikely to go to Tribal Council before the merger. There, it seems likely that his bad read of people will continue to hurt him if he tries to get Missy back on board and go against his old foes, Jon and Keith. Jeremy started the game with more allies than anyone else but, except for dead-man walking Dale, he now has more enemies than everyone else. Many viewers will see it as doubts surrounding our eventual winner but I think we’ve seen his bad social game for a reason. He continually looks down on people, even dismisses them if they don’t do it his way so, while some are still on his side, many others have to be waiting for the right time to vote him out.

The Couples:
Three pairs have a star and a supporting actor:
Reed: Like Dale who was a 50 pound bag on Kelley’s shoulders, Reed could be too much baggage for Josh to carry. Most likely, his actions up to now will come back to drown Josh. No one seems to trust Reed; Keith even has a very valid reason to distrust him. So it will make it hard for anyone to work with Josh. Since Josh was shown being submerged by a big wave during their own “Honeymoon” scene, we can even wonder if Jeremy’s plan won’t succeed after all. We’d really have to reassess our outlook on things but it wouldn’t change our view of Reed. Either way, he won’t be our winner.
Wes: Despite the confessional in which he told us that Hunahpu wasn’t very smart with their rice, Wes is not really an important player this season. His story is on hold until he joins his father, the real star of this pair. If, as I suspect, the Final 6 comes down to him, his dad, the Michigan couple and the cheerleaders, then it’s likely that he will make a quiet exit shortly before the Final Tribal Council.
Jaclyn: She should be happy to know that most viewers will see her as a better player than Jefra, her pre-season model. At least, by now, most viewers know Jaclyn which wasn’t the case for Miss Kentucky. Still, this isn’t a beauty contest so Jaclyn has many obstacles to overcome. Her role is definitely to support Jon’s bigger story. They will try to go as far together as possible and the others still find their romance cute. However, their allies will soon realize that they have to be broken apart. As soon as Jon wins an individual immunity challenge, the target will appear on Jaclyn’s back. However, everyone likes Michigan (well maybe not Dale at this point but he doesn’t count) so sending her to the jury will also be dangerous. She would certainly influence the other voters in Jon’s favor.
By this time, I usually have narrowed the list of “suspects” to one or two but I have to be cautious this time so these are the ones I still see as Contenders:
Josh: Like Jon and Jaclyn, Josh is part of a hot couple and he also had his “honeymoon” moment. In the edited version of the events, Jeremy hasn’t talked to him and it seems that the firefighter was quick to dismiss the couple as possible allies. That could very well be Jeremy’s downfall because, at the merger, Josh and Reed should regain their attractiveness. They could be the couple in demand at that point but that probably won’t last. Baylor knows that Josh is sketchy while no one is connected to Reed. If the four couples team up after the merger, Josh and Reed should be the first eliminated once they have secured the numbers. Josh seems destined to drown in this game but he is one of the few smart players so we have to keep him on our list.
Baylor: Her mother says that she is there only to protect her kid and Baylor has more confessionals than her mom yet I see less positive content for the young cheerleader. Her own treachery almost led to Jaclyn and Jon aligning with Kelley and Dale. She should play a big role in uniting Josh and Reed to their couples’ alliance and she could also play a big role in betraying Josh and Jaclyn. If she does make those big moves then she could pay the price for her disloyalty. She would try to explain them as game moves but the others saw that she was disloyal from the start so they will see it as her true nature. For now, I think that she will be in the Finale with her mom but wouldn’t get the votes against the “nice mom” and whoever is there with them if it is a Final 3.
Keith: We already saw that he wants to provide for his tribe by going out to fish while the others relaxed in the water. If he makes it to the merger, that role could then carry Keith far. Being paired with Wes, no one will see him as an immediate threat and his good nature should contribute to keep him safe. Can he maneuver his way to the end? He’s already attached himself to Missy and Baylor, the idol can help if he can keep it secret and everyone likes to have a father figure around. He was first seen as a strict father but he has been quite easy-going after his name came up at Tribal Council. His answers to Jeff have always been very thoughtful, somewhat contradicting his country bumpkin persona. Would he be that level-headed answering a jury? It wouldn’t be easy to convince them that he deserves the title of Sole Survivor but he’d make them laugh and that could be enough. The overhead shot of Keith was nicely done and it’s another hint that Keith has to be on our list.

Missy: In protecting her daughter, could Missy win the game? It would truly be Survivor’s version of “Save the cheerleader, save the world”! Even if Dale sees her as a self-centered, bossy b*tch and Kelley called her a diva, everyone else likes Missy. Her motherly role was underlined with the rice scene. Since it didn’t kill her, we can say that it made her place in the story much stronger. Everyone can relate to the mama bear analogy so maybe her diva attitude can be forgiven or at least understood. It certainly would be something she could explain to the jurors and, through them, to the viewers. Her connection with Jon on Hunahpu, even if it wasn’t revealed, had to be the deciding factor in the couple’s vote. Her connection to Keith could play a bigger role down the line. I like Missy’s chances but even I have to note that her role in Drew’s boot wasn’t highlighted in the recap like it was in the previous episode.
Jon: We had noticed him in the premiere as being goofy but still having substance. Immediately, we knew that he was on a journey that could carry him far, a journey that, hopefully, he could share with his father. Every time he made a mistake, he was given the opportunity to explain himself. That led to a very consistent story, where only his vote against Keith was left unexplained. Keith is still on his tribe and he’s probably a more important part of his alliance than Jon realizes so that could be dangerous. We’ve had a big hint that Jon could win crucial immunity challenges down the road because Missy and Natalie saw Drew as a more dangerous opponent. Considering what we’ve already seen of Jon, he could outplay everyone; win his way to the end. There, his good nature could get him many votes. After this episode, Jon becomes a very serious contender.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
10-25-14, 03:16 PM (EST)

49. "RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

LAST EDITED ON 10-25-14 AT 03:18 PM (EST)
Agree with your general sentiments this season, michel.
The only single player that I think you might sleeping on is Natalie. I think it's possible she could be getting a bit of a sneaky Tina, Vecepia, or Sophie-esque pre-merge edit. She was notably present during almost all of the boys and girls' conversations in the Drew vote and has always at least made her presence felt in each episode. Her interactions with Jeremy might make her look like a follower, but after the Drew vote, I don't think the audience is supposed to view Jeremy as a flawless player anymore. I think, if an opinionated and/or controversial person like Natalie would win, the editors might try to downplay her a little bit so we don't get angry at her snarkiness. When someone like Nadiya goes home first, they'll go out of their way to show how abrasive she can be sometimes. The fact that they back away from Natalie a little is a good sign for her.
(Ignoring the John Rocker incident. But I think, no matter what the final outcome, they just had to show that scene.)
I get the vibe that Josh could be our Aras of the season, a big character that is destined to be turned on at the merge. This role could easily be Jeremy, though. Josh could actually end up being on the winning side of the merge and be snaked at the Final 5 or whatever... I just feel like the show's insistence on pushing the Josh/Baylor relationship early on, means that this is going to be important. It might end up going away and being a loose end (like Morgan's feud with Jeremiah last season), but I just get the feeling that Baylor is going to stab Josh eventually. It's probably going to caused by Missy, I imagine.
I don't necessarily think that Baylor is going to win either. She seems more like either a misguided Ciera character, or maybe a Final 3 goat, but I'm not ruling her out either. I'm doubtful about Missy too, as the rice incident made both her and Dale look foolish and petty. They could have easily edited it differently if she wins.
I've been leaning toward Jon as our winner lately, although I had doubts after the Drew episode. The whole thing about his father in Episode 1 was very interesting to me. In the early seasons, them showing this stuff wouldn't be suspicious because they would try to make their characters three-dimensional. But in modern Survivor editing, they would never try to make us care about Jon unless he were going to stick around for a long time. They very easily could have just edited him as Drew's dopey friend (like Eddie from Caramoan). The father stuff could mean that Jon is our much-speculated quitter, but I don't get the quitter edit out of him in general.
I see shades of maybe a losing (but entertaining!) Troyzan edit out of him, but it could be spun into comeback winners edit too.
This season's editing has been interesting so far. Even though I like Josh, I kind of hope he doesn't win, just because he has the most traditionally-obvious winner's edit of the bunch. Kinda bummed that Kelley is gone because she was another one of my darkhorse candidates after the Drew vote. Stupid Dale.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-27-14, 09:35 PM (EST)

54. "RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

Glad to see you back, Jims. Thank you for your input. M
y main problem with Natalie is that she doesn't have fans in the original Coyopa. They wished they could vote her out so would she be able to make them forigive and forget if she needs their votes?
For the rest, I agree with you and I'm also leaning towards Jon.
Stupid Dale indeed. Kelley was my pre-season pick and quite beautiful!

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-27-14, 12:28 PM (EST)

50. "RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

Loved the read Michel. I caught your blog over at RobHasAwebsite too, you get a bunch of good feedback there also.
I don't like Missy. There, I can't put my finger on why so for some reason it's a gut reaction. She may subconsciously reminds me of someone I don't care for but I'll leave it at that without a reasonable explanation.
Keep them coming Michel, I do enjoy your views on the show.

I should be watched....closely.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-27-14, 09:43 PM (EST)

55. "RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

Thank you Suzzee, RHAP is a lot of fun but this is my place.
The feedback over there made me see a strong parallel between this season and the Outback and not just because of the possible trade of rice for tarp. Missy is the new Tina but not as nice a mom. Jon is her Colby, the not-so-bright, good looking strong guy that will help her get to the end. They even have a Keith who loves to go fishing. I wonder if he's as bad a cook as Kan't Kook Keith! So, will we have Keith voted out just before the F3 and will Jon do better than Colby?

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
10-27-14, 03:55 PM (EST)

51. "RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

Michel, once again, we are seeing things very similarly indeed, but you catch so much, and it’s always appreciated. I also love how you break it down in to the editing of the show, then how you see the story, then the individual edits of the characters and how they fit into the story. Well done, as always!
Jims, love hearing your two cents as well, but I don’t know about Natalie. She seems to be acting like Jeremy’s mouth piece, but for me, they make a nice “couple”. I think Natalie and Jeremy have some legs but I just don’t know how this show will shake out. Eventually the couples must go after couples, afterall, only one can win. I see it though as the couples trying to dominate over singles until they have to eat their own, then they do it one couple at a time. So, could our final 6 be 3 couples, final 4 be 2 couples, etc...
With the introduction Jiffy did spread the blame...2 tribes going in opposite directions, one couldn’t win, but the other tribe couldn’t be beaten, but they couldn’t live in peace either. We saw Val calling out Baylor for wanting them to vote out Dale and we saw Drew deciding to throw the challenge. It backfired and the majority came together to vote him out, leaving his only ally alone and in shock....Jon. This intro really pits Baylor against Dale, while also the majority gets backfired upon...Hey Jeremy...#toptobottom, while Jon goes from the bottom to the top. Everything we needed to know was tied up in the intro.
With the Rocker exit episode we saw Jacklyn at the bottom of her alliance....she was the last girl besides Baylor, so she could have been toast. But “the girls” turned the tables and got Rocker out, blindsiding him and his buddy Dale. Jacklyn went from being an apparently clueless player to flipping the tribe, according to last weeks intro.
Last episode we saw the apparently clueless little boys get blindsided, and now Jon finds himself on the wrong side of the numbers. He and his girlfriend are living parallel lives. They are seemingly horrible at the game of Survivor as singles...
We hear Jon, however working the group...I would have been with you, etc. In confessional he admits that Drew was his friend, but he also noted that he “stepped on alot of toes”. Jon was not blind to his faults and I think it was clear because he did not vote with him.
Jeremy in conf: He comes to me, I just swooped him up I am right in the middle of where I want to be, I am in a beautiful spot right now.
Once again, Jeremy is shown to be arrogant, and now he’s got his “dumb” boy, right where he wants him...
Wes reads the tree mail, and Alec notes that he’s ready to go toe to toe with his brother...exit to Hero Arena and we get a nice reaction shot to Drew’s absence. His tribe supports him, they are really surprised, but Josh gets the nod by noting that they don’t know about the tribe dynamics...it sucks.

There were a lot of reaction shots from Kelly upon hearing what Coyopa had to say about their surprise. Then when Jiffy noted, “drop your buffs”, we heard Kelly say, “I knew it!” Right at that point, I really got the vibe that Kelly was toast. I think this is where they cut to commercial as well.
Then Jiffy specifically asks Kelly if she would be excited to be paired with her dad...then they open their buffs and Jiffy calls out the reunited pairs, we see Josh/Reed hug, and Jacklyn/Jon as well...we all know Jiffy loves the love. Jiffy calls out the tribes, 3 pairs of loved ones and one single on Coyopa, with all singles and one pair on Hanahpu...Keith said he would rather be with Wes, Reed said that he could be a target. Time will tell...
Jon gets the conf: When I first realized that Jacklyn and I would be on the same tribe, it was an extremely happy moment right when I needed it. When I was at Hanahpu I was on the wrong side of the numbers so it's a whole game changer...
He gets the confessional because now that he’s reunited with his GF, he’s gone from worst to first. And, I think so has she, so has she!
After the Jon confessional where he notes he’s gone from the wrong side of the numbers to a much better situation, re: worst to first, we get the contrasting confessional from Jeremy who had told us what a beautiful position he was in, now in conf. he notes: “I was not on anyones radar and bam, what happens now? Josh and Reed, Josh could work his magic on Reed and work on me”, then we see Josh and Reed. We hear Josh’s opinion on what he is thinking with the swap, a very enlightening and revealing confessional...”I am so excited to play with Reed...my relationship with Reed gave me the strength to come out to my family and friends ,not everyone agrees how I live my life, we are remaining abstinent till we get married. It's that commitment that is going to take us all the way to the end...” (My first thought was that could indeed be a million dollar quote right there!)

Note that we had a confessional from Jon, then a confessional from Jeremy, then a confessional from Josh. Jeremy and Josh have already been identified as strong contenders for end game and important to this season’s story. Jon being lumped in with this group tells me he is in good company. I think all three have compelling winner stories at this point. Jon, as a single, failing, yet when reunited with his loved one, capitalizes and preserveres, starting out fun loving and immature and then matures through the show and learns by mistakes. Jeremy had his loved one removed from the game early and has had to navigate a world of couples on his own merits, now he’s gone from first to worst, can he make it? And, Josh, another who navigated well without his loved one at first, now reunited notes that it will be their commitment to one another that sees them through to the end.
I was so busy writing for the East Coast Spoiler thread that I didn’t even see the wave submerging Josh, but I have to agree, that sure sounds ominous for Josh’s chances. Good catch, michel!
I also love that you noted when we now switch over to camp Coyopa, we see a howler monkey jumping from one tree to another, remarking how they could be representative of Jon easily navigating the swap from Hun to Coy. I distinctly recall in the first episode when they noted howler monkeys...Baylor and Missy were afraid, but Jon loved them and howled up to them...! How astute, the old howler monkeys could be calling to our boy, Jon, after all!
Jon gets the confessionals and the screen time with GF, Jack: “It’s good. I feel good about it. They got a bunch of rice and I was like Yesss! We get to eat! I couldn’t have been happier but even more importantly; I am on the same tribe as Jaclyn.” We saw him kissing Jacklyn and then continues on... “I don’t care what implications this has. I’m just pumped. Being here with Jaclyn right now is a huge weight off my shoulders. She knows everything that is going on in my life especially my dad right now is dying of brain cancer. Jaclyn has been there for me every step of the way. I am excited that I can actually share so much of this experience with her and even more excited that it seems like we can help each other.”
He is giving us the gambit of emotions that he must be feeling, recognizing he is getting to actually play this game with his loved one, while at the same time, going from a really bad positon to suddenly going to a very good position. He has to be so "pumped". We all know how Jiffy loves the love, and, I think seeing them be affectionate with each other and then describing how they feel really hits at the emotions and heart of a loved one’s season. They verbalize it so beautifully.
Interesting that you noted in the pre-season media we heard that Jacklyn was unable to bear children and clearly, we have not seen any of this, so the story of this couple must belong to Jon. I agree, Jacklyn will be the supportive one. I have to say that I had no idea until you mentioned it within your post! Then I hunted it down and found a preseason interview with the couple from Jacklyn’s own Twitter feed...
Putting Jacklyn’s confessionals after Jon’s spells it out, I think. Jacklyn underlines Jon’s perception of their new situation. Jon will be the more invested character of the pair, but clearly I think they are destined to work well together as a cohesive and supportive team.
I loved Jacklyn telling Jon about the Coyopa dynamics and how Baylor flipped back and forth, and that she doesn’t trust Baylor or Josh. So, despite being on the bottom, apparently she was paying attention.
I also LOVED the scene with Baylor admiring the kissing couple and Jacklyn telling her, you guys will probably hate us, and Baylor disagreed heartily and had her confessional: “Jacklyn and Jon are in love, I am totally jealous, here I am with my mom....she's been married and divorced 3 times, my time will come and my mom's time will come again”...then she is all smiles. I like this Baylor, I love that she is admiring of them and not out to get them. This scene makes me like her and gives me hope that Baylor can work with Jacklyn and Jon in the future.
I also note that it’s always a good thing for players to talk about other players positively, and I thought this was good that Baylor is admiring Jon and Jacklyn as a couple.

Next we have Keith and his two cents, another significant character in the season...He talks about the brand new tribe and being the odd man out, but I laugh when he notes that while he might be by himself he’s got a little idol tucked away in his Boot....wouldn’t that be funny if his little idol “BOOTED” another right out of the game. I still LOVE the fact that he’s not told anyone about it! I loved the helicopter shot as well...I also love you noting that he’s providing for the tribe as a father would, a role that Dale failed to do!
Back to Hunahpu and Alec has his confessional about the new athletic tirbe and outlasting his brother in the game, finally beating him at something. Then Natalie and Jeremy going off to the well to plot, and I love the snake nod...Jeremy again perhaps being villainous with his side kick, Natalie?
Jeremy has his confessional regarding his assumption of Reed jumping with Josh, Alec, and Wes. He notes how he needs Alec and he’s just like his brother, and surround and drown...he still sounds villainous to me, surround and drown, with his plotting and stalking of the ignorant kid brother of Drew. If this story does turn out to be “all” about the couples than it’s easier and easier to see Jeremy as the antithesis of the couples, the villain, the penultimate single.
Now we get to the rice scene at Coyopa and Missy gets confessionals regarding the events going on currently there. Note she doesn’t get the confessional regarding the reaction to the split of the tribes. Missy goes on to say how all she wants to do is to protect her kid from the “guy that’s picking on her”. Then we hear from Dale, and Kelly, calling Missy out as a diva, and a “self-centered biotch”...Kelly notes that if she doesn’t play peacemaker Dale will put a big ole bullseye on his back and on hers...
I love the family comparison, paternal dad, Keith, matriarch, Missy, and the kids that all got along...Baylor, Jacklyn, and Jon-boy. Clearly, there is no room for a cantankerous old grandpa, Dale...or Kelly.
Dale tells us that they are voting going with Jon/Jack and against Missy/Baylor, Kelly tells us the same thing. Jon notes his strategy, “We have so many couples here that it really is all about finding your couple that you match up with. The most important thing is to read a situation and be able to say: Is this the best thing for me now? So, I’m leaving room to make adjustments.” Basically, after this episode this choice will either lead to the end road for Jon/Jack because they apparently made the right choice with Baylor/Missy, OR, it will lead to their swift demise because they could have made the wrong choice. I have a feeling with the way this played out that Jon/Jack make the right choice. Still, “there is room to make adjustments”...lol!
We then see Jon/Jack getting to know the other couples better...
I agree, Missy most likely forged more relationships than Kelly did. Kelly was paired with Jeremy, but Jeremy was seen to be more tied to Natalie. Missy went to Julie when Jeremy and by association Kelly, dejected her. Missy most likely was pretty tolerant of the “dumb kids” on the tribe as well. It will be interesting to speculate about what happens when Missy is reunited with Jeremy and Natalie...
Tribal Council unfolded nicely, and I think we can sum it up by the following exchange: Dale said that Jaclyn and Jon were the hottest couple in camp right now. Baylor corrected him: “They are the hottest couple period.”
I have to add here that with all of the Jacklyn confessionals about how Baylor flipped flopped and she doesn’t trust her or Josh, and the warnings that Dale gave to her, I would not be surprised if Baylor and Josh were the demise of Jacklyn, down the road.
In this season of Blood vs. Water, the players have taken on a new tactic. Instead of singles banding together to get the couples broken up, Jon told us he wants it to be couples to the end. He was the first to mention the strategy, a positive sign, especially if it indeed unfolds this way. This theme continues with Jon being reunited with his GF, Jacklyn. While they were both seen as failing in their tribes as singles, now that they are reunited they are The. hottest. couple. period. In a game where the new strategy is to keep the couples together and vote out singles, I’d say being the “hottest” couple is a dang good place to be. Both were at the bottom, now that they are reunited, they are seriously on the top...just for phun, we’ll call it the “hot seat”.
I see the major characters of this story as Jon, Jeremy, and Josh. Baylor, Keith, and Missy as strong characters as well. I do see Jacklyn, Natalie, Reed as supporting characters to their loved ones and Jeremy. I see Wes, Alec, Julie, Dale as insignificant characters.
Next week, I predict the demise of Dale, but I think I have voted for him in the vote thread more than I have ever voted for any Survivor!

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
10-27-14, 08:33 PM (EST)

52. "RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

Jims, love hearing your two cents as well, but I don’t know about Natalie. She seems to be acting like Jeremy’s mouth piece, but for me, they make a nice “couple”. I think Natalie and Jeremy have some legs but I just don’t know how this show will shake out.
I mostly meant that Natalie is more of a sleeper than a clear contender at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if she just kind of falls by the wayside (kind of like a Leann maybe), honestly. I think there are much more obvious contenders at this point over her but she's someone I'm keeping on my radar just in case it's a tricky edit this year.
(No, they don't do tricky edits anymore very much, but I always keep it in the back of my mind in case all the major characters invalidate themselves again.)

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
10-27-14, 09:31 PM (EST)

53. "RE: Episode 5 - The Honeymoon"

LAST EDITED ON 10-27-14 AT 10:17 PM (EST)
I loved to read your thoughts, FP. You made me alugh with your hot seat and your votes for Dale. I really think his time has come.

You always give me more to think about and this time, you may have given me the missing link, the hint I was looking for to call the winner, when you wrote:
"I also love that you noted when we now switch over to camp Coyopa, we see a howler monkey jumping from one tree to another, remarking how they could be representative of Jon easily navigating the swap from Hun to Coy. I distinctly recall in the first episode when they noted howler monkeys...Baylor and Missy were afraid, but Jon loved them and howled up to them...! How astute, the old howler monkeys could be calling to our boy, Jon, after all!"
I almost had it but there it is: Jon is symbolized by the Howler monkey, he is one of them because he even talked to them. That introduction where a howler monkey scared Baylor and Missy had caught our attention and I now see that it really was important: Missy and Baylor will be there in the end but Jon (the howler monkey) will also be there and will be their biggest fear, the one that beats them. I won't make it official before the merge but Jon is now definitely my top contender.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-01-14, 02:08 PM (EST)

56. "Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

The episode started with the Howler monkey jumping from one tree to the other and Jeff reminding us that the surprise switch gave us entirely different tribes: Coyopa with its three pairs of Loved Ones and Keith while Hunahpu only had one such pair, Josh and Reed, with a bunch of singles.
The new Coyopa had a fake idol, a real idol, and a new power couple. (Jon and Jaclyn were seen in their swim suit hotness)
We then heard Jaclyn’s interview: “Missy and Baylor want us and Kelley and Dale want us. It’s kind of crazy.”
Over at the new Hunahpu, Jeremy, Natalie and Julie were worried about losing their ally, Reed. “All they have to do is Josh work his magic on Reed and Reed can jump ship” said Jeremy in confessional which was heard in voice over while Josh and Reed were shown kissing.
To make matters worse, everyone was starving.
After Reed was heard saying that they were desperate for food, we saw Jeff raising his hands and yelling: “Jeremy wins immunity for Hunahpu.” After they won the immunity challenge, Hunahpu made a desperate plea. Jeff told them that it would cost a lot and that they’d have to wait for the next day to figure it out.
With Coyopa facing Tribal Council, Jon and Jaclyn had to choose between two couples. It was once more Jaclyn who told us about the situation: “Dale is sneaky and I’m sure his daughter’s the same way but Baylor flipped on me once and she could do it again.”
At Tribal Council, they decided to stick with Missy and Baylor, sending home Dale’s daughter, Kelley.
I had been comparing Jeremy to Marcus who also had a great story in Gabon... for a while. One of things that told me Marcus couldn’t win was the fact that Jeff never gave him praise for all of Kota’s wins. This time, Jeff clearly told us that Jeremy was the one responsible for winning immunity. We also heard that he lost his ally, something that could have been turned to Josh’s favor instead. Jeff could have said that Josh broke Hunahpu’s alliance or something along that line that would have made Josh look like a good strategic player. The way it was phrased told us immediately that Jeremy was in danger. The viewers can appreciate the strategic players and the underdogs alike but this recap was about the underdog.
As for Coyopa, there was no mention of the rice incident which is a very good sign for Missy. That whole fight with Dale wasn’t important after all and since we only heard Jaclyn’s interviews to explain the vote. The only segment chosen to explain the decision told us that Dale and Kelley were sneaky while Baylor’s flip in the first vote was a source of worries. Indirectly, the viewers were told that Missy was the only one that Jon and Jaclyn could trust. It’s interesting that Jon’s confessionals weren’t used at all to explain the decision. We could have heard Jon say that it was about reading the situation properly. It was as if Jaclyn suddenly became the more important player in that pair.
In the last image of the recap, Jaclyn had an expression of either doubt or regret after Jeff snuffed Kelley’s torch. Maybe this decision won’t work well for them in the end.
The New Power Couple
Coyopa – Night 13
Thunder and lightning greeted the tribe’s return to camp.
Dale had the first interview: “Tribal was probably has bad as it could get...You see complete strangers slaughter your daughter in front of your eyes and there’s nothing you can do about it... I don’t think there can be a father than can be more proud than I am of Kelley. I’m not going to give up until I can’t talk anymore”
That was a nice Survivor “epitaph” for Kelley, a way to thank a big fan of the show for playing and maybe better luck next time.
With war-like music in the background, a chipper Missy greeted Jon who was happy to see her preparing breakfast.
Dale’s confessional continued: “Just reading the votes last night, I know who’s next. Me! So I’ve got to do something drastic to make sure I don’t go home. I’m not dead before I see my name written four times.”
Those pesky numbers! I love the irony that Dale “died” even if his name was written only three times!
Dale showed his fake idol to Jon who bought into the bluff. In confessional, Dale reminded us that it wasn’t real but he hoped they would spend a few restless nights thinking it was.
Jon gave us an interview: “This morning, Dale showed me an immunity idol. If we lose in the next immunity challenge the idol, potentially, could ruin our plan and that really scares me.”
The camera showed four birds who were on their way to Hunahpu.
Alec was complaining to Jeremy, wondering if Jeff was about to tear down their camp.
Jeremy gave us an interview: “After we won the immunity challenge yesterday, Reed asked Jeff if we could make a trade for rice. If you are trading something for rice, Jeff is going to clean you out. I’m not having that like come on guys, we can suck it up. We could win a reward tomorrow, we could have feast tomorrow. Why are you all so hungry over a little bit of rice? It’s just mind-boggling to me.”
This whole segment made Jeremy look very good. I love how, with the right confessionals, the blame for Hunahpu’s rice shortage was switched from the original Hunahpus to the newly arrived complainers. Only Reed from the original Hunahpu kept his share of the blame. Jeremy even made it sound as if it was only Reed’s idea to beg for rice turning him into the Dumb Player.
With a military march accompanying him, Jeff made his way on Hunahpu beach, ready to destroy Hunahpu’s morale... or at least make fun of them!
Julie told Jeff that she was scared. Seeing that they were down to a handful of rice, Jeff reminded them that this only happened once before, in Australia were the situation was due to many hardships.
Reed said that there were too many cooks in the kitchen but Jeff corrected him, saying there were too many patrons in the kitchen.
This exchange indirectly absolves Missy. According to Reed, she wasn’t “the rice cooker”, there were many. And if that wasn’t enough, Jeff pointed out that the problem wasn’t with the ones cooking the rice but with those eating it.
Jeff then went to Josh, pointing out that they had done things the right way on Coyopa wondering how it made him feel. Josh said he felt very weak. Alec wondered what the hell had been going on but Jeremy interrupted him by saying: “It’s not like you guys are coming down here and stopping it.”
Jeff was enjoying this, saying that there had never been a tribe that had needed as much help as this one. Jeff repeated that the amount of food they had was part of the reason why they won so many challenges so he had to be fair to the other side. He had to impose a penalty. He took everything except a machete, a pot and a flint. He concluded by saying: “You are starting over.”
The tribe didn’t even discuss it; they simply started tearing the camp down.
Reed in interview: “Jeff took away our comfort, our tools and one of our pots which I feel is all worth it.”
Jeremy’s interview contradicted him: “They are all happy; I’m pissed. You know, he just took all our stuff. Why are you all happy? It’s so frustrating.”
Julie agreed with Jeremy: “We gave all our comfort back, it really sucked. Our tarp being gone is a really big deal to me. I don’t know if it is a big deal to everybody else as it is to me. I just know how I am: I am very worried about the rain. Being cold is really going to test me.”
This could be the beginning of the end for Julie who could very well be the person that quits but I wonder if this is misdirection. That was a very hard night but things should go better after the merge so, if she got through that night, she could be good.
Like the Grinch, Jeff walked away from camp dragging a big bag of goodies. There may have been a touch of evilness in his voice when he said: “Let’s just hope it doesn’t rain.”
In an episode that was boringly predictable, this gave a touch of drama... and comedy. The sound of a big bass drum was heard six times while the tribe watched Jeff leave with their stuff.
The Challenge Arena
While the camera showed us an anxious Wes, it was Natalie and Julie who were surprised to see that Kelley had been voted out. “Oh my God” said Julie when Natalie turned to her.
As Jeremy noted, they would soon have a chance to feast.
Each tribe was allowed to choose their strongest competitor. Reed told Hunahpu that he was comfortable with that challenge while Baylor stepped up for Coyopa.
We saw both Missy and Josh cringe when their Loved One hit their head on an obstacle.
Jeff gave us and the blindfolded players a play-by-play description of the match.
Wouldn’t it be better if the blindfolded players couldn’t know about their opponent’s progress? Baylor had a better strategy: She was getting the bags first and didn’t study the mask at first while Reed was studying the mask before taking the first bag. When Jeff informed him that Baylor was already returning with her nag, Reed quickly adjusted his tactic.
As an aside, Baylor should try to get a commercial deal with whatever company made that orange nail polish she wears because it still looks as good on day 14 as it did on day 1. Survivor nail polish? Who knew! Unless they were allowed to bring luxury items and she does her nails every day. Luxury items; Remember those?! My favorites were Robb’s skateboard because it was so useless on a beach and the immunity idol from China that James brought with him to Micronesia.
Reed had very little trouble completing the puzzle and he won the bar-b-q for Hunahpu and he started crying. He explained the tears by saying the challenge was stressful and that they were so hungry.
Baylor was also on the verge of tears, disappointed that she couldn’t do it. She felt like she had let her tribe down.
When he had to decide which of his tribe mates he would send to Exile Island and deprive of the feast, Reed first chose Julie: “She has been doing well out here and she could show John just how much she can deal with.”
Julie almost immediately agreed but Natalie said she was going to volunteer. That really surprised Julie and instantly brought a smile to Missy’s face. Natalie explained that Julie had provided while she hadn’t.
Since Natalie wanted to go, Reed ended up choosing her. Julie and Missy thanked Natalie.
Missy in confessional: “Baylor is in very good hands. Natalie said: “I’ll go to Exile Island. I know I have Natalie, I know she is with me and I think it’s going to be super beneficial.”
That was an outstanding move by Natalie. I was really impressed by her strategic decision and it shows those who say that this format reduces the level of strategy that new moves can come from it. Natalie instantly showed Missy that she can be trusted, that she will do whatever it takes to help her daughter, sacrificing the feast and the comfort of the shelter to stay with Baylor. Also, this indirectly tells us how great Missy’s social game had been while she was on Hunahpu since she got someone to do this for her and her daughter. We had seen glimpses that Missy was well liked by her former allies but this shows that Natalie didn’t just like Missy, she thought of her as a close friend.
Coyopa – Day 14
We saw Keith fishing once more but he wasn’t having any success.
Keith (solo): “The fish, they are biting but I think they are too little, I can’t catch ‘em. They’re nibbling and then they get my bait every time.”
We then saw the Howler monkey walking on a branch as if it had been spying on Keith. We heard Jon talking to Missy: “Natalie’s totally with you still.”

Missy agreed, saying: “There’s no way she would have gone otherwise.”
We heard the Howler Monkey screaming just before Jon delivered a big news: “This morning, Dale showed me an immunity idol.”
Jaclyn was on screen when he said that, suggesting he was telling the story for the first time to both Jaclyn and Missy. I noticed that we saw all three of them walking by Keith favorite fishing hole but Jon’s revelation was done in voice over with only Jaclyn shown on screen. We didn’t see the words coming from Jon’s mouth while all three were on our screen so it’s possible that Jon didn’t tell both at the same time. It would be much more likely that he’d tell Jaclyn in private first and then they’d spring it on Missy if they agreed it was the best thing to do. Presented this way, it gave the impression that Jon trusts Missy as much as Jaclyn which could be very dangerous in this game.
Jaclyn couldn’t believe it: “Get out. It sucks so bad.”
With Keith seen in the background, Jon laid his plan: “If we lose the next immunity challenge, we could actually take Dale and use him to vote Keith out.”
Missy gave us an interview: “So today, Dale decides to show Jon that he has an idol. That’s a little wrinkle in the plan.”
The scene ended with Jon saying that he’d like to keep Keith but couldn’t see how it could happen.
It’s nice for Keith that we heard his name mentioned, putting him in danger but it would have been nicer if he had been more involved in saving himself.
Exile Island
We saw the two women arriving near the exile rock.
Natalie in confessional: “Me making this move to volunteer to go to exile, I hope that it plays in my favor. Once we merge, this will prove to Missy and Baylor that, listen, we need to take care of Natalie if she is not taken care of.”
Baylor got the parchment with the clues and we heard that the idol is now buried near the flags, not the water well.
Natalie’s confessional continued: “Baylor had the immunity idol clue, she showed it to me. I didn’t ask her, she just showed it to me. Getting information from Baylor, I feel like long term, is way more important for me than some food reward.”
Natalie told Baylor that she needed to find the idol over there and that her or Jeremy needed to find the one back at their camp. Baylor agreed adding: “Then we could run with it.”
Baylor immediately showed the clue to Natalie and she agreed that it would be just as good of Jeremy was the one who finds the Hunahpu idol. That tells us that Baylor trusted Natalie so she must have spoken a lot with her mother about the alliance she had with those two. It now looks like we underestimated the bond between Jeremy and his girls. In order to say that the couples are going to take over after the merge it seems that we will have to consider Jeremy and Natalie as “Twinnies”! Those two have been singles for so long that they’ve developed a strong bond and they’ve really made a strong connection with Missy.
Natalie’s confessional continued: “Me, Jeremy and Julie, we are on the chopping block. Long term whatever Baylor says, I am listening to because Missy I trust and if I can trust Missy, I can trust Baylor.”
Not only was Natalie making a smart move for herself when she volunteered to go to Exile Island but she was also thinking of her alliance and the post-merge numbers.

Hunahpu
The sun was setting on Day 14 and the spirits were high... for the moment.
Josh in confessional: “I am so proud of Reed for pulling it out. We came back with 8 shish-kebabs and a bar-b-q pit and I’m like, yes, that’s my guy; he did that.”
Jeremy didn’t seem too happy to see the two guys kissing.
Jeremy in confessional: “Josh and Reed: They walk around like they own the place and then they are all lovey-dovey with each other. If Val was here, we’d be so separate that you would think we don’t like each other at all. That’s what you are supposed to do but these two, hugging and kissing; that’s a threat.”
It seemed that Jeremy was only talking about the implications for the game: He was irritated that Josh and Reed were taking control of the game. However, his irritation was presented right after the camera showed them kissing. Some could say that Jeremy’s reaction showed that he was homophobic. I’m not sure about the intent of this scene but I felt like more care could have been given to Jeremy’s reputation.
When the meat was cooked, we heard Alec’s interview: “I’m a meat collector. I eat meat a lot.”
Again, Jeremy had the rebuttal confessional: “We just had our feast but we didn’t have our tarp anymore because the “brainiacs” (Josh and Reed on screen) wanted to give that away. If we had just left it for another day, we would have had a full meal. They are so dumb.”
Sure enough, the clouds rolled in and it started raining. They all huddled in the shelter and Julie didn’t look too good. “I just cannot handle being this wet all night. I feel like I’m breaking. I’m at the breaking point” she said.
Jeremy in confessional: “Oh! Julie, Julie, Julie. It’s a sad situation. She’s crying, ready to go home. If Julie quits, I wouldn’t know what to do because I am dying for numbers but if she has to go, I need her to go before I go. So I can make this merge and I can make some magic happen.”
Hunahpu – Day 15
The next morning, we saw Jeremy comforting Julie: “Don’t let it break you... We did good. We passed that bad night.”
While Jeremy said the right things, we had just heard his confessional so he looked very selfish. At least, he was honest with her, saying that he needed her.
Crying, Julie said she thought every night was going to be like this one. She gave us a confessional: “Jeremy keeps checking in with me this morning. He’s telling me: Hang in there, I need you. He’s here to protect me, I’m here to protect him. It was the hardest night of my life. I thought about it a million times... You can jump ship at any time but I am sitting here right now and that speaks volume to me.”
Alec didn’t mince words: “This is Survivor. You signed up for this ( censored ). Go home.”
That sums up the audience feelings regarding whiners and quitters.
The Immunity Challenge
Julie sat out of the challenge.
While Hunahpu’s strength gave them an advantage while rolling the wooden cube, Jon really outperformed Jeremy in getting the bags off the coils. That gave Jon and Missy a nice head start on the flag puzzle and Jeff said they were working well together but Jon got stuck after the third banner. Josh and Reed were able to catch up and take the lead, never looking back. Hunahpu won immunity.
Right after Jeff handed the idol to Hunahpu, we heard Jaclyn consoling Jon: “You did great, really,” but Jon was despondent: “No” he said, looking down at the ground.
While it was Missy’s role to give the right banner to Jon, the camera focused almost entirely on Jon as he kept putting up the wrong banner. No blame was put on Missy. That looked like a great sign for her. Jaclyn’s words made me think she’d say the same thing if Jon fell a little short of the final victory and he’d be even more heartbroken.
On the other side, if Reed and Josh really wanted to get rid of Jeremy before the merge, then they missed a glorious occasion to throw the challenge with no one realizing what they were doing.
Asked to explain Coyopa’s feelings, Dale said it eloquently: “What happens tonight hurts more than this.” Missy agreed.
Coyopa – Day 15
Keith narrated the events: “We can’t catch a break. What do you do? I mean, we were there today. It is frustrating. (he spit to show his dejection) Now, my job is to get Dale out of there and get to the merge where I can reunite with Wesley and we are going to have a strong pact then. I got my back-up plan too. It’s great having that idol, You can always pull that baby out. I don’t want to but you always can. That is the luxury of having it.”
If it was his job to get rid of Dale then Keith had a strange way of going about business because he went for a nap. Despite that, the fact that we keep hearing him talking about the idol could signal that he uses it to save himself at some point. We’ve often heard arrogant players saying that they had a big advantage because of the idol but there isn’t arrogance in Keith’s words, just a realization that the idol could help. Since there wouldn’t be the satisfaction of seeing the arrogant player fall then letting us hear Keith’s words indicates that he will use it successfully.
After a spider crawled out of a pot, we heard Dale talking to Jon: “I suck at this...Losing. I don’t want to play my idol tonight”. He offered the same deal that Terry had tried with Danielle: “If I am not voted out tonight... I will give you my idol.”
Dale explained his reasoning in confessional telling us the idol, wasn’t real so he couldn’t play it. He was bartering that idol for votes.
I have to wonder about the players’ bartering skills. After Drew and Reed’s failures, it was Dale’s turn to make a terrible offer. If you want to use an idol, fake or not, you have to go to the person you want to eliminate and threaten them by saying: If you vote against me, YOU are the one leaving. The idol works better as a weapon than a gift so Dale should have shown it to Missy. Also, he should never have mentioned that he didn’t want to play it. As soon as he did, he made it irrelevant: Whether the idol was real or fake, Jon now knew that he could get Dale out.
As soon as he had exposed his plan to Jon, Dale’s confessional continued: “For tonight...We are going to vote Missy out. Missy has got the most ties in the previous camp.”
This confirms our impression that Missy is well connected in her original tribe. She is the player to watch.

In his interview, Jon reflected on the plan: “Dale said if he doesn’t go home tonight, he will give me his immunity idol. It’s very tempting to take that offer but you can’t just get hung up on small details. I have to consider all the pieces of this puzzle.”
Instead of considering all the pieces by himself, Jon told Baylor, Missy and Jaclyn about Dale’s offer.

Missy was quick to point out: “The four of us need to get further and in order to do that; we have to get rid of him.”
They agreed to put three votes on Dale and two on Keith.
Missy (solo): “Just in case Dale has this idol, we are going to have three people vote Dale and then Baylor and I are going to vote Keith. If he plays his idol, Keith goes home and I’m sad about that but better Keith than me or Baylor.”
Jon and Jaclyn further considered the pieces when they found each other alone in the ocean. Jon said that if they went with Dale, they would be alone with the idol. Jaclyn wondered if it was a real idol and Jon said: “I really think it’s real.”
Why did we have to hear Jon say that he thought the idol was real if he was going to vote against Dale anyway? Since we knew the idol wasn’t real, letting us hear this exchange made Jon look quite foolish.
Jon in interview: “Jaclyn and I, once again, find ourselves in the middle. There are options here. One: We could vote for Dale, we could take out Keith or we could vote for Missy. I feel like the best option would be to actually align with Dale and use the idol for the alliances’ advantage but the biggest thing that I need to do for this vote is to line myself up so that, when the merge happens, Jaclyn and I are a power couple.”
Tribal Council
We saw that one of Hunahpu’s snakes made it to the swap!
Dale first told Jeff that voting a Loved One hits you like a ton of bricks.
Jon and the howler monkey agreed.
Baylor compared being on Exile Island to being a kid lost in a grocery store unable to find your parent. “It’s scary and it’s tough and you don’t know if you are going to make it.”
That got to Missy who said she wasn’t there for her daughter. Baylor started to cry because as she said: “When she cries, I cry.”
Jeff pointed out that Missy wasn’t crying but Baylor knew she was just about to start.
Dale said he could only think about the next 12 hours.
Jon told Jeff that he talked with Dale which got a reaction from Keith.
Jaclyn told Jeff that it was nice to get an extra view point on things.
That remark caught Missy’s attention, and she said that it was a bit disconcerting to hear that.
Dale said he was loyal and a lone vote and that he didn’t have any ties to anybody in the game.
Baylor countered that she was more loyal than Dale, surprising the farmer.
Dale answered: “I like Baylor but she needs to own up to her game.”
While Dale won’t be a juror, this continued story line about Baylor’s refusal to acknowledge her role in the first vote tells me that she won’t be able to convince the jury.
Jeff asked Jaclyn to go back to day one when considering who was loyal.
Jaclyn agreed that Baylor did kind of flip on her.
Jon said that they were coming to the merge so he wanted to know who he could trust in the long term.
Jon’s comment signaled that it was time to vote.
Dale was seen playing with his bag but it was too late to bluff because Jeff had already left to tally the votes.
When asked to play an idol, neither Dale nor Keith stood but it seemed that the firefighter had his eyes on Dale, ready to pop up and play his own idol.
As soon as the second vote for Dale was revealed, everyone knew the outcome but I wonder how Keith will react to his two votes. He looked straight at Missy, seemingly knowing the origin of those two votes.
Dale walked off, Missy smiled and we heard Jon telling Jaclyn that she was beautiful. The two smiled.
Jeff sent them back to camp after saying: “You said it was the biggest vote thus far and it was centered around loyalty. The question that time will answer is: Did you make the right decision?”
Right then, Missy gave us a big smile, telling us that time will indeed tell us that it was the right decision for her.
The Story
The dynamics of Hunahpu had been so well hidden that we underestimated the strength of the bond between the women and Jeremy. The vote against Kelley had contributed to make me think that a cross-tribal alliance of couples would take over but this episode really put the original Hunahpu alliance into focus. The only way we’ll be able to say that the couples take over after the merger is if we consider that Jeremy is an honorary “twinnie”! The five women of Hunahpu lost one member when Kelley was voted out but they gained 3 votes now that Jaclyn, Jon and Baylor will be joining them. In that alliance, we heard about the Hottest Couple but a real Power Couple has emerged.
The Characters
The Constants – These players haven’t evolved in the last episodes:
Reed: The whole bartering for rice fiasco was mostly put on his shoulders when we heard Jeremy’s first confessional. If that wasn’t enough, we heard Reed say he was happy with the trade but Jeremy told the audience how it should be viewed: “They are all happy; I’m pissed.” Along with Julie and Baylor, Reed was one of three players whose moment of weakness was questioned by Jeff this week. “Why the tears?” he asked him after he won the reward. Like the other two, Reed didn’t exactly look like a Survivor in that moment. I still think he could be our quitter if Josh gets voted out.
Wes: We know that he will join with his father after the merge but how strong will their pact be? His meagre role in the first 6 episodes doesn’t exactly bode well for any future story arc. Most likely, Wes will have one episode with a few confessionals before making the real “walk of shame”.
Alec: He is actually devolving, turning more and more into his older brother with each passing episodes. Eating and cursing at a woman was his only role in this one. If he was more of a threat in tactical skills, he’d be the typical merge boot because of his athleticism and his lack of allies. As it stands, he will simply be one in a string of ex-Coyopa players that will leave in the next few episodes.
Josh: The merge episode is building up into a struggle between Josh and Jeremy but it won’t be fought on an even playing field. While Josh looked like a formidable player after the first three episodes, his star has paled since he has moved to Hunahpu and joined with Reed. Like his partner, he complained about the lack of food and was ready to trade all the comfort for a bag of rice instead of continuing to play the game like Jeremy. With the possible exception of Keith, the merge will not bring him any reinforcement so he will need to win or find immunity to last until episode 8. He was in a great position to get rid of Jeremy before the merger because all he had to do was to throw a challenge that Jeremy had already compromised.
Julie: We heard that she reached her breaking point so it’s very possible that she will quit when the next storm hits them. Will she be there to vote with her allies at the merge? Could she quit if she realizes that her vote isn’t needed? It was nice to see her recover after that tough night so I’d like to see a story of perseverance from Julie but since we know someone will quit, it makes it hard to envision. I hate long range spoilers even if they come from SeeBS itself.
The Variable:
Keith and his idol: The clueless continue to survive. I’d say it’s great for us: Keith is a good narrator despite his limited abilities and he’s been an enjoyable character. Hearing him say that he was ready to take a nap after telling us he had a job to do, making sure Dale got voted out, wasn’t a very promising note for his future chances though. Of course, Bob famously napped his way to victory but that was in episodes where the “Onions” were in charge and Bob wasn’t considered for elimination. Putting “my job is to get Dale out of there” next to “Can I take a nap?” wasn’t the best way to portray Keith in an episode where he was one of the alternate votes. Still, he has an idol and it doesn’t appear that he will waste it because he isn’t as arrogant about it as the other players we saw over the years leaving with one (or two!) in their pocket. Who will be the idol’s victim? As far as I am concerned, Jeremy is the prime candidate but the way he looked at Missy after seeing his name pop up twice means that she will have serious damage control to do. After all, his question about the nap was addressed to Missy so that means he trusted that she would take care of business and get rid of Dale. While we heard she would be sad to see Keith go, she didn’t hesitate to put his head on the chopping block. How will Keith react?
The Power Players
Jeremy: While this episode confirmed that he wasn’t going to be faced with a vote before the merger, we still heard him talking about strategy. There will be no need for “Surround and Drown” so that whole scene could have been left on the cutting room floor but it was still an integral part of last week’s story. That tells us that Jeremy will be a very important player after the merger, that he will be part of the dominating faction. I still don’t see him as a winner because we see too many negative moments from him. Every time he talked negatively about Josh and Reed, we were shown the couple kissing so that gives the impression the kiss was just as much the source of his irritation as their actions in the game. That wouldn’t be the best way to show the “Sole Survivor”. Also, even if we know that he bad-mouths his opponents mostly in confessionals, his scowls are in evidence in group pictures so that should tell the others what he thinks of them.
Natalie: I was very impressed by Natalie’s move in this episode. It showed that she understands that trust is the key ingredient in this game and, more importantly, she found a way to earn trust outside of Tribal Council. Usually, the surest way to prove that you can be trusted is to vote the way you say you will but, in this format, volunteering to accompany someone’s kid to exile Island, in effect promising to protect them, is an even better way to show you can be trusted. After the merger, Natalie and Missy are going to be working together, making the plans to get to the end. The fact that the cameras didn’t show Natalie and Baylor on Exile Island on that terrible night is not a good sign for her final success.
The Hot Couple
Jaclyn: Her star has been shining brighter since the swap and she was featured even more than Jon in the recap, her words being the ones used to explain their decision. Since Dale went to Jon with his bluff, it made her take a step back in airtime again but she was still the voice of reason, the one that questioned the authenticity of the idol. I still see her expression of regret or doubt after eliminating Kelley so that indicates that she may regret joining Missy before all this is said and done. Even at the end of Tribal Council, a moment Jeff described as the most vital one of the game thus far, the focus was on Jon saying how beautiful she was. That indicates they aren’t focused enough on the game and they might regret yet another decision.
Jon: He was associated twice with the Howler Monkey in this episode, once when he told Missy and Jaclyn that Dale showed him the “idol” and later when the monkey “agreed” with him when Jon answered Jeff’s question. However, Jon was neglected during the recap and he looked foolish to fall for Dale’s bluff even if he played it well in the end. Presently a part of the power couple, Jon should understand that his hesitations before every vote are the worst way to keep power. A power player needs to be trusted and the others will become worried to see him hanging in the middle so much.

This episode gave me a new interpretation of what the monkey represents. Unlike the tarsier who symbolized Cochran as the small predator that outlasted all the big ones, the monkey is only a menace, a threat hanging over Missy and Baylor. Jon will still be there in the end and will represent the last threat to their victory but he isn’t a killer. He could win his way to the final Tribal Council but he won’t vote them out. Would he get the votes in the end? I’m less positive after this episode.

The Power Couple
Baylor: Natalie is the one that truly fits here with Missy but, in this format, we know that Baylor will always be tied to her mother. So, like the three Musketeers who were four, maybe my Power Couple should have three members! I’ll make a concession to semantics and leave it at two. This episode really showed us that we weren’t watching Baylor’s story but her mother’s. While on Exile Island, Baylor was practically ignored: The focus, the little they received, was all on Natalie. Baylor will be sitting in front of the jury but her vote in the first episode will be once more brought to light and Baylor will still be unable to own up to her game.
Missy: I feel more and more like she will be our “Sole Survivor”. Consider these:
- According to the recap, the decision to boot Kelley was made because Jaclyn had something bad to say about everyone but Missy.
- The rice incident was not only ignored in the recap, but Jeff even said the problem wasn’t with the cook but with the patrons.
- We finally had some key confessionals from Missy and they came at the perfect time because her name was on the chopping block. Unlike Keith, she didn’t take a nap when it was time to get the job done and make sure Dale was voted out.
- We heard that she had the most connections in her original tribe and Natalie’s decision to volunteer to go to Exile Island showed that Missy is not only connected but that she is respected and liked. Gaining Missy’s trust was so important to Natalie that she turned down a feast. A player that has the others’ trust is the most powerful player in the game.
- The camera focused on Jon's failure during the flag puzzle when it could have focused on Missy who had to be fumbling around with the banners.
- At Tribal Council, I couldn’t help but notice that Jeff said “But she isn’t crying” when Baylor blamed her tears on her mother’s. It probably didn’t mean much and Missy has been shown crying before but, in this moment, it showed that she was standing up to the rigors of the game a little better than Baylor.
- The smile that was revealed by the camera after Jeff said that time would tell if they made the right decision meant much more: When the dust settles over this season, Missy will be smiling still.
I will wait to see how she is portrayed during the merger but Missy should be able to get rid of Josh, the sketchy player, his allies, the other power players and break up the hot couple to stand in the end with her daughter.
Who will be the 3rd player facing the jury? Since Missy would be sad to see Keith go then it could very well be him but she will have to smooth things over with him after the votes at this latest Tribal Council. If not Keith then Natalie or Jon. The vote would be hard to call if Jon is sitting next to them. However, Missy is liked and Jon is seen as a goof ball so maybe she could even beat him.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
11-01-14, 03:42 PM (EST)

57. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-14 AT 03:50 PM (EST)
Still agree with your general sentiments. After the Kelley episode, I wasn't so sure about Missy being the winner but the clues were definitely there (like her comforting Julie earlier). This past episode was really good for her. She smacked down Jon's ideas so quickly. It really feels more like Jon is going to be the "character" and Missy is going to be the "player" in that alliance.
I feel like the editing is making it really obvious that Josh, Wes, Alec, and Reed will end up getting knocked out at the merge. Wes and Alec have fallen so far into the background that they seem like the boring Pagong boots now. The Morgans and Jeremiahs of the world. I suspected that Baylor would screw over Josh, and it really looks like that's where they're leading toward. Baylor is portrayed as just following around her mother, so I think it's very unlikely that she'll be able to have her friend Josh come over, when it's her mom's night to play bridge with Jeremy and Natalie.
I'm actually getting kind of annoyed at this season at how they spun the rice bartering into "Jeremy is right, they're all whiny" when HIS TRIBE WAS THE ONE WHO ATE ALL THE RICE. And then Missy on the other tribe is still shoving rice down their gullets. It is so obvious that Jeremy's tribe was the "irresponsible" one (although strategically sound, I suppose) but they way they spin it, really gets on my nerves, and makes it obvious that Jeremy's faction is going to win out over Josh's.
I hope I'm wrong. Jeremy is really annoying to me. I mean, Tony was annoying sometimes, but at least he could be annoying in an extremely entertaining way. I think I'm just grumpy this season because I miss my Cagayan people so much.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-01-14, 09:26 PM (EST)

61. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

I understand your frustration about the edit about the rice situation. I have many reservations about Jeremy myself. It does show how easy it is to change people's perception though and that fascinates me. I bet most casual viewers like Jeremy for his stance.
As for Cagayan, that season annoyed me a lot more than this one. Listening to Tony afterwards, it seemed that the editors did their best to make him look crazier than he was.

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Tyrone Slothrop 13 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
11-01-14, 06:28 PM (EST)

58. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

Fantastic recap, Michel, as per usual.
While I find myself strongly persuaded by the general tenor of your gameplay analysis, I'm having a difficult time envisioning Missy as the Sole Survivor. Although the memory banks are proving a tad hazy, I cannot recall another potential winner whose screentime has been so minimal, and back story left so sparse of details except for those provided by another (ie, Baylor). I know Missy has been thrice divorced, had some questionable taste in men, and at least one husband (Baylor's biological father) who is also prone to shedding tears. Other than that, bupkis. Compare that to the fact we know of Jeremy's occupation, compatibilities, and (snarky) perceptions of his fellow tribe members; of Josh's adaptable nature and difficulties as a conservative-bred homosexual and the commitment he has made with his partner; Jon's father's terminal illness and what rigors that has imposed upon the son in juxtaposition to his innate tendency to goofiness. I just don't see Missy, as so far delineated, being the final winner. An important piece of the journey to the end, doubtless: but I'm still favouring Jeremy or Jon or Baylor, and then Josh and Keith as outlier possibilities, over that of the socially well-connected maternal player.
Just my two cents: and there remain plenty of episodes for me to get on board the Missy train...

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
11-01-14, 06:40 PM (EST)

59. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

Try watching the last three episodes again and pay attention to how Missy is interacting with others when it comes to important decisions being made. Her footprint is all.over.the.place during these moments. The editing is really, really kind to Missy when she's had numerous moments that could easily have had the editors bludgeoning her - there's an apparent reason for this.
There's been plenty of winners that weren't focused on all that much pre-merge and then their games became more obvious post-merge. When you have strong characters like Tony, he's going to be focused on, of course, but when you have strategic players you're only going to see them during key discussions. I can think of numerous examples where winners were less focused on than Missy has been so far -- Natalie, Vecepia, Sophie, Bob, just to name a few. Denise was focused on early because of her fight to survive on a terrible tribe, but we knew less about her as a person after six episodes than we do about Missy thus far.
I've had Missy in the final three since about episode 2, it seems very clear to me, and I agree that she's in the favourite's chair for the title so far.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
11-01-14, 07:11 PM (EST)

60. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-14 AT 07:13 PM (EST)
The only problem I see with comparing Missy's edit to other UTR winners is that there isn't a big enough character this season to explain why the winner would be so hidden.
Natalie fell in the background because Samoa because The Russell Show.
Vecepia was surrounded by people like Boston Rob and Sean (and Kathy post-merge).
Sophie had to contend with Coach and Brandon (and then later Cochran and Ozzy) for screentime.
Bob's edit is still kind of a mystery to me, to be honest.
The only person on her tribes so far that would eat up all the screentime from her would be Jeremy. So her moving away from him would explain why she's been a little more visible lately. But I have to admit, the UTR comparison is still a little unsatisfying. If Missy wins, I would say Tina would be the closest comparison thus far. Slow starter who gets a couple character scenes early, who evolves into a strategic force as the season progresses.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-14, 09:37 PM (EST)

63. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

Hello Pepe, so nice to see you here. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. What made you like Missy's chances so early?

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-14, 10:14 PM (EST)

64. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

LAST EDITED ON 11-02-14 AT 08:03 AM (EST)
You outlined many of the reasons that made Missy jump out at me - but one thing that I've reliably gone back to over the many seasons since then is what Tina Wesson said the following season after her win: look at who's sitting with whom. The editing pattern changes from season to season, but in general I've found the most consistent factor has tended to be who the winner hangs out with and how much of a role he/she has in the overall tribal dynamics. The winner does not always have to be the one making decisions but is usually shown being in on all of the decisions and then speaking about it in confessional (Sophie, for one).
Sometimes, it's a 'feel' thing for me based on how they're presented and I find that I can usually narrow down a potential winner to 2 or 3 candidates by the second episode every season. There's been seasons where I was completely thrown off from the get go by the editing - Nicaragua and Guatemala were two particular examples for me.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-14, 09:33 PM (EST)

62. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

Thank you, Tyrone.
Missy isn't as developed as some of the others but, according to dabo's count, she is still right in the middle as far as number of confessionals go. That's where many winners find themselves at this stage of the game.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
11-02-14, 02:05 AM (EST)

65. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

Missy wasn't really backburner at Hunahpu. She was shown being the shoulder for Julie and Natalie to cry on. She had a confessional during Natalie's as well and they emphasized on her past relationships in the second IC with her daughter. The third episode, she's shown getting the tribe to do something and then later is with Julie but no confessional and thats probably because it was a Rocker boot episode. The fourth episode, she's shown with the Keith idol scene and with being the one saying Drew should go. Two off episodes should not write her off, she's had emphasis on the four other episodes.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
11-02-14, 02:06 AM (EST)

66. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

LAST EDITED ON 11-02-14 AT 02:07 AM (EST)
But that said, she's a factor in the endgame but Jon's been the edit leader on NuCoyopa and it to me is going to be Jeremy against Jon.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-05-14, 07:11 PM (EST)

67. "RE: Episode 6 - The New Power Couple"

So bummed this has been a crazy week but I still wanted to get a few thoughts in here! Michel, always a great read and when you make points, I listen! I am not ready to call the winner yet. I do love the family theme that you nailed...Missy/Keith/Baylor/Jon seem to be the family...Missy and Keith the parents, but I am beginning to think that Keith is the Grandfather....choosing to nap while Missy agrees, he's earned it! So Missy is the matriarch, Jon and Baylor the kids. I think Natalie will be one of her kids too, but I don't really know where Jeremy fits...he has been villainous but, he always seems to speak the truth...like in this episode, when Julie was up all night and ready to quit, Jeremy preceded the scene saying the "brainiacs" couldn't suck it up and had to trade everything, the tarp, for food...the merge is here, and they just had shish-k-bobs that day, clearly indicating that it was a very stupid move to trade their shelter supplies for food, it will most likely cost them Julie. Clear foreshadowing.
Could Jeremy be the father role? Clearly a snarky one, but maybe?
The intro: on Coy: 3 pairs of LO's and keith, on Hun 1 couple and a bunch of singles...on Coy they had a real idol and a fake idol, and a new power couple....they all want us, it's kind of crazy...
At Hun they were worried that Reed could jump ship, to make matters worse, they were starving...Jeremy wins immunity for HUN, and after they won, they made a desperate plea...with Coy facing TC, J/J had to choose between 2 couples...and at TC, they decided to stick with M/B sending home, Dale's daughter, Kelly. 13 left, who is next?
The target next week, I think, will be someone from nuHanahpu...it could be Julie, but it could be someone else too, someone that Jeremy targets....one of the "brainiacs".
The question of the entire episode was posed very early in the show, when Dale showed Jon the fake idol. Would it save him or not?
Then, Jiffy shows up for the trade...Jeremy, who is really "pissed", and Julie get the confessionals. Julie will be affected the most negatively by the trade, and Jeremy could be as well, if Julie quits before the merge.
At the RC, Reed is emotional when he wins, and picks Julie to go...can you imagine if she had gone to EI...she would have quit immediately! LOL! But, Natalie jumps up to go....BRILLIANT move, imo! Natalie is making ties to the other tribe, so she will not be picked off as a single...Missy in conf agrees: Natalie is WITH ME! Clear foreshadowing that Natalie and Missy are strongly tied together, this is important when they take sides post merge.
Once again the Howler Monkey precedes Jon. Clearly, he symbolizes Jon, and I do think that is very important this season.
Then the weighty confessionals about the big lunch they had, then the rain and Julie possibly quitting. If she has to go, he needs her there until he makes merge. Will Julie leave once Jeremy makes the merge?
Then a very selfish and unsympathetic confessional from one of the "brainiacs", Alec...this is Survivor, if you can't hack it, go home. Foreshadowing?
Then the challenge, and Coyopa loses again, Dale had the last words. I did think Jon arriving and giving the nod to Josh was significant...at first I thought they would work together, but you may be right, it could mean these two will go head to head?
Keith has a conf about getting back together with Wes, and his back up plan, the idol. Foreshadowing again...
Clearly we see Missy's priority is not Keith...better him than me!
At TC, Jon had the meatiest statement, I thought, and it was right before the vote...
Jon says: It influences my decision, we are coming to the merge, I need to know who is going to be with me, it's about long term who can I trust the most.
Then the vote, and then Dale goes...Missy smiles, then Jon says to Jacklyn: You are so beautiful, then Jiffy concludes: the biggest vote so far and you said it was centered around loyalty, the question is did you make the right decision?
Yes, that will be the question of the season, lol!
I still think Jon is an end game player, but Jeremy and Missy are as well, and I think Keith will be there too. Thanks so much, michel, a great read as always! Clearly, Julie will be toast at the merge, I think. With the preview promo Josh/Reed are gunning for Jeremy, but it's easy to see that Josh will fall short.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-07-14, 04:06 PM (EST)

68. "Question..."

I would love to know if it was Jeremy's plan to have Natalie go to EI with Baylor, or did Natalie think of it on her own? She is the one that is playing her cards right...She's is in a tight couple with Jeremy, who is also a great shield for her, and she is very tied to Missy/Baylor right now too. She is definitely a player...fwiw.

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11-08-14, 00:35 AM (EST)

69. "RE: Question..."

I really liked your post FP but I didn't see it before this week's episode. For your question, I don't think it could have come from Jeremy. I can't imagine a conversation where that would come up because they didn't know who would be going to Exile Island on the other side. It would be awkward for Jeremy to say: "You should go" and not have Natalie question why HE wouldn't go. It looked like something Natalie decided on the spot.

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11-08-14, 05:22 PM (EST)

70. "Episode 7 - Follow My Lead:"

Previously on Survivor; Hunahpu was starving and decided to trade nearly everything for a bag or rice... and no one felt it more than Julie.
Despite losing everything, Hunahpu won the immunity challenge.
We heard Keith saying that they can’t catch a break and we see him spit on the ground.
Back at camp, Dale was in trouble and hoped his fake immunity idol could keep him in the game.
Worried that the idol was real, the majority alliance decided to split the votes between Dale and their ally Keith.
Missy said that she is sad about that but, she adds: “Better Keith than me.”
At Tribal Council, Keith was shocked to get votes but, in the end, it was Dale who was sent home, leaving Keith confused and in the dark.
The relationship between Keith and Missy is proving to be very important and now, for the first time, they are in conflict. The episode will show that Missy won’t be able to control the damage created by this vote so will it be her undoing? Keith has an idol so it’s dangerous to be on his radar. However, this scene could also serve to explain why Keith would not vote for Missy in the end. Some will say that Missy didn’t receive any credit for the vote, Jeff once more talking about the majority’s decision but such an omission isn’t damaging when we are dealing with a low-key winner. Jon is the one that is hurt because he was at the forefront of this decision.
As a footnote, the recap was the first indication that Julie wouldn’t be shamed for quitting. She was already given an excuse for feeling bad.
Follow My Lead
Coyopa – Day 16
The music was very dramatic when the tribe started the day.
Missy in confessional: “Last night, we voted Dale out but there has been so much paranoia and talk of him having an idol that we decided that Baylor and I would write Keith but we were pretty worried about it because no one likes to have their name written down.”
Missy explained the situation to Keith, saying he’d have probably done the same thing if Wes had been on the tribe and there was a threat of an idol. Missy said she didn’t want to see Baylor going home or go home herself. Keith said she could have let him know.
Keith in interview: “When I saw my name come up twice at Tribal, I said: What in the world? Are you kidding me? My name wasn’t in the plan. Did I miss the memo?” Keith asked the tribe what would have happened if Dale had voted for him. They told him that they would have all voted against Dale on the revote. Keith replied: “No more lies. We don’t have to lie. His confessional continued: “It was Missy and Baylor who voted for me and they gave me some lame excuse. I think that I’m somebody who stays loyal but I’m done with you all. I’m going to leave you hanging high and dry.”
Right then we saw a little frog hanging on for dear life. It looked like it was going to fall but it didn’t! Will Keith fail to get rid of Missy as the image suggests? That is a story worth keeping in mind in addition to the much larger conflict that will consume much of this episode.
Hunahpu
The music was much lighter when the camera followed a flock of birds that were on their way to Hunahpu. We arrived just in time for us to hear their tree mail message.
Natalie read the instructions telling them that they were about to merge.
Josh gave us an interview: “We got our tree mail which basically said we were merged and it was a mixed emotion feeling at that point because we needed to get rid of Jeremy and we didn’t do it when we had the chance because we’ve not gone to tribal with this whole tribe. So now, it makes it a little more precarious to get Jeremy out but we can do this.”
Talking to Reed, Josh said: “Alec and Wes are totally on board with us and Keith would easily come over so that’s five.”
So much for “Surround and Drown”: I don’t believe that Alec is a good enough player to fool anyone so, if Josh and Reed were convinced that he was with them then they should have thrown the challenge and booted Jeremy when they had the chance. This episode will end in another failure so we have a trend, a theme to this conflict. After missing so many times to get rid of Jeremy, it stands to reason that Josh and Reed will have to pay.
Jeremy had an interview: “In this game, I always say that you have ups and downs, ups and downs and I was down. At Hunahpu, Reed and Josh were in charge and they ran it and I took a back seat and that’s alright; you guys have your fun. But now it’s merge time and when it’s time to vote, I want to crush them.”
This was a very good confessional according to Game Theory: Jeremy knew he had to act like a follower when someone else was in charge but he will soon be on an up and will be looking to reverse the trap on Josh. Everything about the edit tells us that Jeremy will come out on top. The most important hint we have is that Jeremy’s main allies, Natalie and Missy, have been much more visible than Wes, Alec and Reed.
We were back to Coyopa and the howler monkey was taking care of its little one.
Keith read the merge message.
Jaclyn in confessional: “We got tree mail; it said pack your things we are merging. I’m really excited. It’s a big milestone for me and Jon to have made the merge together. We never thought that this would happen. Now, here we are, both going into it, day 16 and it’s the merge. When we get to the other side, we’ll feel it out because we definitely want to keep our options open.”
Jon jokingly said that nobody wants to date someone that doesn’t make it to the merge so he was happy that he and his girlfriend could still date.
I really enjoyed this little wink at Kat!

While the tribe was climbing a hill, we heard Missy saying: “We are almost there.”
I do think that Missy is almost there!
Hunahpu was also on the move and we heard Reed’s confessional: “Coming into the merge, it’s a whole new chapter. We are all coming back together; you’re trying to figure what still stands, what’s dissipated and then there’s this whole Blood versus Water element. You have a natural alliance that’s built in and that is so apparent and then you have people that don’t have their Loved Ones in the game anymore so it’s going to be interesting to see what happens.”
The first two players that we saw hugging were Missy and Natalie while Jon and Jeremy hugged just as Reed ended his confessional. It will be interesting to see what happens with these two because that will be the key to the tribe’s first vote. As for the seating arrangements, it was very interesting to see that Baylor and Missy were the only pair that didn’t sit next to each other. It was as if they figured it was better to mingle with the others. Missy sat between Wes and Reed while Baylor was next to Jeremy. In this social game, it’s good to talk to everyone if you can do it without making your allies nervous.
Jon had a confessional: “After having absolutely nothing for 16 days, then seeing this giant feast waiting... It was awesome.”
I find it troubling that Jon keeps getting these Stephenie-type confessionals, always showing his craving for food. While Jeff said eating well was a good way to win challenges, he also said that it wasn’t the right thing to do on Survivor. Added to his indecisiveness, I do not believe that Jon is being portrayed as our winner. It seems more like he is getting the fan favorite edit which would be a nice way to end his journey. Like in the previous challenge, he is doing very well but not enough.
Julie had a confessional that set up her exit: “On our previous tribe, we just had one couple and that was Reed and Josh. That was a little annoying seeing them have their lovers’ vaca but now, with the merge, we have multiple Loved Ones together and it’s really tough on me because I miss my boyfriend Jon. I want to separate myself from the group and cry a little bit.”
Had she been voted out, Julie would have been part of the jury, forced to stay in isolation at Loser Lodge for the duration. Now she is free to join Rocker on the all-expense paid “vaca” for the pre-jury players. It looks like that was the plan all along.
Wes had a confessional: “This feast was the number one highlight in the game so far. I mean, everything was great and we got to take out all the food that was left when we head home so we’re going to have a feast tomorrow too.”
It was certainly the highlight for Wes’s character so far. He’s had very few occasions to talk to the audience. Unfortunately, it was only about the food.
It was Keith’s turn to give a confessional: “I’m excited to be playing with Wes. It’s been sixteen days so it was good to see him. I could care less about Missy and Baylor.”
Once more we see him spit. It lacked elegance but it showed his disgust with the mom and daughter team.

Josh gave us his thoughts: “The game is all of a sudden speeding because you are doing so much. You are going through exhaustion, you are going through just mental mind craziness and then, to add on to all that, the elements out here, it’s not easy. Now, we’re merged and it’s a little daunting with so many people and it’s a little scary and it’s a little uncomfortable because this is where you make or break if you’re going to have the numbers for the rest of this game.”
The part of “it’s not easy” was heard while Julie was shown on screen. Josh’s words were being used as another excuse for Julie’s decision. The message was: If even Josh who has a Loved One finds it hard then the audience should forgive her. What’s with the apology for quitters? If they are still watching, Osten and Kelly must be really upset by the pampering that Jeff and the editors give to today’s quitters. Survivor was so much more fun when the players were actually surviving on their own.
It’s more interesting to look at what Josh is revealing about himself in this confessional. Josh feels mentally drained which isn’t the best way to enter into the titanic fight he will have with Jeremy who has repeatedly said he can suck it up. Before this episode is over, we will have many occasions to compare Jeremy and Josh and the Broadway actor will always seem to be one step behind, having to catch up to the firefighter.
When they arrived at camp, Jeremy and Natalie were on screen when she said: “We’re each other’s loved one.”
Jeremy gave us a confessional that was divided in multiple segments, allowing us to see him talk to different people. We heard him say that he needed to keep his numbers while he was talking to Julie. We next saw Jeremy take a walk with Jon who told him they were still good with Missy. Jeremy told Jon that Josh was running everything. Jeremy and Jon agreed they had seven votes, enough to take out Josh. Finally, we saw Jeremy and Missy take a little walk. After Jeremy counted their allies, Missy said they had been good from the beginning and that she was glad to have him back
Jeremy’s confessional: “The merge is a milestone but I think even more than that, this is where the game starts. The first half of the game; those are pre-lims, you know. This is a totally different level of play. We all have to step our games up. The only way I can keep up in this game is if I can keep numbers. So, I have myself, Nat always. Julie, Julie is just our number... so now I need to get two couples: Jon and Jaclyn and Missy and Baylor... As soon as I got here, there were a few people I wanted to talk to but Jon was number one on the list... The first vibe I got from Jon was a good vibe. He has Jaclyn so I said we are good, we are back together, and we are moving forward... Missy’s been with me since day one. I know I have Missy and Missy will bring Baylor. We have seven, that’s all we need.”
I noticed that when Jeremy said that Missy will bring Baylor, it was Keith that was in the foreground while Missy’s daughter was in the back. Missy will certainly try to bring Baylor but will Keith, and his idol, foil that plan? The image could also be telling us that, unbeknownst to Jeremy, Missy will also bring Keith’s anger. Keith’s idol could very well be Jeremy’s downfall.
While Reed asked everyone for their idea for a new tribe name, Josh gave us another interview: “I’ll tell you what: Alliances are crazy right now. There’s a lot of mayhem and a lot of talking going on. I think Jeremy has been talking to everyone. He’s just trying to gather his troops around because he knows it could be the couples. The goal is to make sure that Jeremy doesn’t get the numbers before we get the numbers. If not then I’m screwed.”
Josh said he needed to act before Jeremy got his numbers but, at that moment, Jeremy already had his numbers. Josh was already one step behind. Jon’s 180 will temporarily reverse the balance of power but, editing-wise, it seems that Josh is screwed.
Huyopa – Day 17
The crabs were scurrying along the beach as if symbolizing the scrambling that was about to take place.
Keith made a mark on the rock to show that they were on Day 17 while Josh wished Wes a happy birthday. Keith had forgotten it was his son’s birthday even if the two had been talking all morning.
Some will say that this scene was meant to show that Josh is attentive to his allies’ needs, an essential quality in this game but a simpler explanation was that the editors wanted to have a little fun at Keith’s expense. It does show once again that it takes time for Keith to figure things out.
Keith (solo): “It’s Wesley’s birthday today. As a matter of fact, I woke up this morning and forgot all about it and Josh wished him a happy birthday before I did. I did forget for a minute but no big deal, I finally remembered and wished him a happy birthday and everything’s good.”
Dad tried to make up for his mistake by roasting a crab for his son.
Josh and Reed talked quietly about Jeremy and the great job he was doing.
Josh gave us an interview: “There are four people who are singles and eight people who are couples so I am thinking why don’t we stick together as couples and be able to get down in numbers with the people we love? Right now, my tightest alliance is me and Reed, Alec, Wes and Keith but that’s only five, we need at least seven so I think I can still get Baylor to vote with me because I did save her once and Missy is going to transfer with Baylor to me.”
The confessional told us that Josh was clearly misreading Missy if he thought she would transfer to him that easily.
With Keith and Reed following, Josh and Baylor talked while walking away from the shelter. He asked her if they were still good and Baylor answered that they were... as far as she knew.
Baylor in confessional: “It’s difficult because my mom has a bunch of alliances and I only have one, strong one with Josh and she’s with Jon, Jaclyn, Jeremy and Natalie. So, being aligned with Josh still is really difficult for me right now. Starting off this game, me and Josh, we immediately aligned and he pretty much protected me. That is what’s hard for me is being like: Thank you so much for helping me, now I have to vote you out.”
Josh told Baylor about his plan for the four couples adding: “You don’t want to side with the singles.”
Josh realized that Baylor wasn’t too enthusiastic so he had another confessional: “I chatted to Baylor and I was like: I saved your life and now we are coming over here and you are just going to ignore that completely? Honestly, I was a little hurt.”
Josh told Reed that Baylor was very sketchy and they agreed it was because she was with Missy.
Baylor went to her mom with her dilemma. Missy told her that she would have to be a little bit phoney adding: “He is going to respect you as a player when you blindside him.” In the middle of the confessional that is transcribed below, Missy told Baylor that she would have to do as she is told because she already talked to Jeremy. She added that they had the numbers while Josh didn’t so he was freaking out. “It’s a game. Suck it up. Just smile and say that sounds great, I’ll talk to my mom. Just smile to everybody right now.”
Missy gave us an interview: “Baylor is twenty and sometimes she acts like she’s thirty and sometimes she acts like she’s ten. She has this need to please but she is going to have to figure out how she is going to handle her heart. She does have a sweet heart when it comes down to voting Reed or Josh out... I know she respects me but the difference is that she is coming to me and asking questions and it feels pretty good because it’s like, yes, I made some bad decisions in my life. She’s had to stand by and watch them and I felt pretty crappy about that. No mom is proud of being divorced one, two or three times and especially to have your kid watch you go through it. But it’s like I get to redeem myself here and she is watching it because now she is back to being my kid and she is listening to me. I’m like look: Trust me on this, follow my lead. Get in the backseat and let me drive. We are going to head down this path and we are going to be fine but you got to listen to me.”
This confessional was delivered in almost perfect silence. Except for a few notes here and there, the music editors didn’t want to distract our attention from what Missy was saying. It underlined the importance of what I see as the pivotal moment for Missy. Like the moment when Natalie told us that she would follow Russell to the end and beat him because he ruffled feathers, this was the moment that really made Missy stand out. By her own words, she is redeeming herself for the troubles that her divorces caused Baylor and she is also telling us that she will not play for Baylor but actually get Baylor to play by her rules. The only question one could ask regarding Missy’s chances to win is: Will Baylor listen to her mom or will she rebel? When she was in Coyopa, Baylor said she would play for herself but now that she as reunited with her mother, she has been very obedient. The fake smile that Baylor put on at her mother’s request tells us that she will do as she is told.
Josh realized what was going on. He gave us another confessional: “I feel that the time that Baylor was away from me that she really got under her mom’s influence in diverting her away from myself and Reed. So now I have no other option than Jon and Jaclyn. We have to make a play for these people or we will be out of the numbers.”
Outside of misreading Missy earlier on, Josh has a good read on people and the situations so he is still a dangerous player.
We saw Josh sit down to talk to the Michigan couple. He said: “Reed and I really would love to work with you guys. We feel like getting in bed with Jeremy... I think he is going to be the strongest competitor. He is the one working the most, he is talking to everyone... Who do you think they are going to give the money to? Two Broadway stars who are very successful or the fireman who has two kids?”

Jon and Jaclyn looked pensive but didn’t give Josh an answer.
At the end of Josh’s plea, we saw that Missy had been standing right behind him. Josh was a little startled when Jon noticed her and said hi as she walked by.
Jon in confessional: “Josh approached Jaclyn and I and said that “we would love to work with you.” Once again, we find ourselves in the middle. It seems that Jaclyn and I became a power couple once the tribe swap happened. With two couples, we were kind of in the middle and both of them needed our help so we are being given a lot of opportunities to control our fate.”
If it is fate, then Jon can’t control it, can he? Semantics aside, Jon should realize that being in the middle gives you only one opportunity to decide. You have to decide and make that decision work for you. The others will respect you. Staying in the middle only makes you look indecisive and that makes you lose the jury’s respect quickly. Just ask Ian or Chase.
To Jaclyn, Jon said that Josh and Reed seemed tied on keeping the couples, giving them top six. He added that they could be full of crap because they are Broadway stars.
Jaclyn had an interview: “It’s the same story again for me and Jon. We are for sure in the middle so it’s like which way do me and Jon go? It’s really stressful because one wrong vote could be a million dollar decision.”
Huyopa – Day 18
Jon noticed that the giant bowl of Trail Mix was missing.
Julie had a confessional saying that she took her share of trail mix from the feast and kept it in her bag. She was feeling guilty because everyone else munched on their provisions and they were out.
When Julie went off to sunbathe, the tribe decided to go through all the bags. Jon went to Julie’s bag and came out of it with a handful of trail mix. Everyone agreed that it was insane.
On a funny note, this is another parallel to the Outback where the players went through Kel’s bag to look for beef jerky.
Wes gave us the confessional: “The missing trail mix... We found out that Julie had it in her bag. The smallest girl here... It is one of the most selfish things you can do in Survivor I feel like so a lot of people are pissed off at her for doing that and we are probably going to take it from her bag and eat it all.”
The tribe acted like the vultures we had seen on the beach, taking handfuls from the bag and sharing the candy. Jon could hardly refrain himself: “That selfish little...Ouf!”
Jon (solo): “At home, Ok, you take Trail Mix, no big deal. It’s trail mix so who cares? Here, we don’t have anything to eat. She’s selfish, she’s awful so, if I can’t trust somebody in my alliance who is stealing people’s food. It’s ridiculous.”
Everyone was laughing and looking at Julie when she came back to the shelter. In confessional, she told us that she felt the tension and knew she was in trouble.
The Immunity Challenge
Josh had a confessional: “I am definitely in the most precarious situation I’ve been in this game yet. Without Jon and Jaclyn on board, it’s still not a majority. I think my name will be on the chopping block so I’m just going to go out there and try to win and fight to the end.”
It didn’t take long after the challenge started for the wind to come up and for Jeremy to lose his ball. He was the first out of the challenge. Missy and Julie joined him on the losers’ bench just a bit before the end of the first round.
Reed, Baylor, Alec and Jaclyn were eliminated at the beginning of the second round, Natalie joining them soon after.
Josh, Wes, Keith and Jon were able to make it to the last round where they balanced two balls.
Josh was the first to fall out and that brought a smile to Jeremy’s face. When Jon dropped his balls, it left the father and son duo of firefighters to battle for immunity. This time, the old man won.
While Keith received a hug from Missy, Jon jabbed Wes, saying: “You blew it!”
Keith had a confessional: “It’s crazy: I won immunity. It came down to me and Wesley. I’m not ready to turn over the reins to him. Tonight is critical. We’ll know where everybody stands after tonight’s vote.”
Since we didn’t have a vote can we still say that this was the critical merge episode? We don’t know where everyone stands, but we do have a good idea.
Huyopa – Day 18
The vultures were having their own feast on the beach. They would be circling in the sky throughout this scene.
Jeremy had a confessional: “My first immunity challenge and I’m the first one out. This is ridiculous. I thought I’d kill at these challenges but I’m terrible at these challenges. I was out before an old guy, a mom, and Julie. I was out before Julie! I was out before Julie. But going into Tribal Council tonight, I feel like I’m safe like we have the numbers.”
Jeremy won’t be out of the game before Julie but his words made me think he will be out before the old guy and the mom. His confidence was evident here but it was far from being a sure thing. A little more effort was needed but Jeremy would spend the afternoon relaxing.
When the whole tribe started eating, Alec said: “I sure would love the Trail Mix” and silence fell over the tribe as all the attention went to Julie.
In confessional, she called him out: “I heard Alec’s little punk butt saying something about Trail Mix. I’m definitely angry but I don’t know what I am going to do.”
She had a talk with Missy, telling her it was hard to see everyone with their Loved Ones. Missy told her: “I’m your Loved One.” She asked her to hang in there and not to quit so soon.
Missy in confessional: “She stole food, put it in her bag and didn’t share with anybody. That’s obnoxious but, if Julie goes home, that hurts us. One messed up vote at Tribal could throw this whole plan into the toilet.”
Missy got Julie to agree to stay one more night to carry out the plan.
In confessional, Julie said she understood she was being used, that she wasn’t going to hate them for it because that’s the way the game goes but she had to think of her own needs.
Jon was talking to Jeremy, saying that they were gunning for him even if they were pretending to go after Julie.
Jeremy asked for their reasons to target him.
Jon said it was because they thought he could win all the immunity challenges.
Jeremy laughed at that, saying he sucks at those challenges.
Jeremy (solo): “Josh is the only one in Josh’s alliance that is playing the game. If you take him out, it’s over.”
I wonder why they’d show this if Jeremy is going to get rid of Josh. Well, some will say that the game is indeed over and that Jeremy has it won so maybe that is the intent. Even with Josh gone, Jeremy will have other sources of worry.
Josh also had a confessional: “This is my home turf but I have to give Jeremy propos because he is playing this game and he is actually playing it well. It’s just that it is opposite to what I am doing and so it’s frustrating. We have to get Jaclyn and Jon. It would make sense to go couples together and singles out. Blood versus water, this is what this game is about. Why don’t we get rid of the people who don’t have their Loved Ones anymore?”
The way Josh phrased it was like saying that he wasn’t playing well: Jeremy is playing well which is the opposite of what Josh is doing. It made me chuckle. I was also wondering where Alec fits in Josh’s plan. Could Alec become a problem for him? The thing to note was that, while Josh was scheming, Jeremy was oblivious, taking a swim in the ocean alone.
Wes, Keith, Josh and Reed worked on Jon, telling him that Jeremy was planning to take out the couples. They also pointed out that keeping Loved Ones meant there would be more camaraderie.
Jon in confessional: “After looking at the options, feeling out the people, I found myself making a complete 180 in terms of what alliances I am supporting. (a vulture was seen right then)”
He told Jaclyn that he couldn’t trust Jeremy and had to blindside him tonight. Jaclyn wasn’t sure about going the other way. With more vultures on our screen, Jon said: “I don’t want to jump. It’s just the best thing for our game.” Jaclyn said she felt good about that but Jon said it was going to suck since he really liked Jeremy.
Jon’s confessional resumed: “It looks like we are going on the couples’ train and voting Jeremy out tonight. I’ve preached against jumping ship before because, if you jump ship you are going to be on the bottom of the totem pole but we are a couple so going with Josh, Reed, Alec, Wes and Keith has more long term potential with fewer bumps in the road.”
That’s when people started realizing that Julie was missing. Missy was surprised because Julie had told her she wouldn’t quit.
Julie had gone for a walk and asked to talk to Jeff. Having gone soft over the years, the host listened and even sympathized with her. They mentioned how it could affect her allies in general and Missy in particular. Jeff pointed out that it could cost someone a million dollars. Julie felt guilty but her decision was already made.
Jeff then informed the members of Julie’s alliance that they were down one member. Jeremy had a confessional were he said he could be going home because of that. Josh also had a confessional saying that this put Jeremy in trouble.
Jeff then said that there wouldn’t be a Tribal Council. When he said that someone may have gotten a million dollar break, the camera went to Missy and Jeremy. Josh’s was again heard in confessional, saying that they had missed their chance to eliminate Jeremy. He concluded: “Hopefully, Jeremy is on borrowed time now.”
Jeremy told us he wanted Josh out of the game. His conclusion was that Julie really messed up his plan.
The smoke from the fire symbolized the fogs of war as it spread over both combatants.
The Story
One can wonder if this really was the crucial merge episode because we didn’t have a vote. It really looked more like an hour long promo for next week’s “thrills”. The stage is set: It will come down to Jon and Jaclyn’s decision to go with either Josh or Jeremy. On a lower level, we have another conflict brewing between Missy and Keith. Once the dust settles over the battle of the Titans, I think the conflict between Missy and Keith will be the true deciding factor.
The Characters
The Guys’ alliance
Wes: He had a couple of confessionals but they were only to tell us about the food situation. It looked like a birthday present from the editors. I’d say enjoy it because he won’t be getting much more.
Alec: This “little punk butt” could very well be the next to go. If Jon wants to test Josh, he should put the target on Alec who isn’t with a Loved One anymore. If Josh agrees then the Michigan couple has three more days to weigh heir options. If Josh wants to keep Alec then Jon and Jaclyn should know he is lying to them and they’d vote with Jeremy. Even if Alec stays in the game and his alliance gains the numbers, we are seeing more and more that he is exactly like Drew so he can’t win.
Reed: He was shown scheming with Josh but it was almost always his partner that talked directly to the audience. Either Reed is voted out because Josh will be wearing the immunity necklace or he leaves right after his partner’s elimination.
Josh: He had multiple confessionals, explaining his game play throughout the episode so he could come out on top of the conflict with Jeremy but most of the hints go in the opposite direction. Josh was always one step behind Jeremy and he needed a last minute “Hail Mary” pass completion by Jon to give him a chance. Then the joke was on him when Jeff cancelled Tribal Council. The whole set up of the episode makes sense only if it is to show that three days can make a world of difference. On day 18 Josh was 80% confident he’d come out on top but the odds won’t be the same when they get to Day 21. Probst’s decision to cancel Tribal Council will likely have big repercussions.
Keith: The theme to his story is that he needs some time to figure things out. That even included remembering Wes’ birthday. So, the question is: Did he finally figure out that he needs to get rid of Missy or did he make up his mind too quickly after receiving those two votes? Keith is given a lot of airtime and we see a very fun character, one that can make us laugh. Is that the extent of his story? Will he get rid of Missy or will she hang on to the very end like the little frog? He wants no more lies but we saw that Missy can very easily lie with a phoney smile on her face.
The Couple in the Middle
Jaclyn: She is becoming the voice of reason in the couple. Maybe it helps that they usually go to Jon first, giving her time to think things through which doesn’t seem to be her boyfriend’s strong suit. I don’t see how Jaclyn would ever feel comfortable in an alliance with Wes, Alec and Josh so this is another reason why I see this whole episode as a smoke screen.
Jon: Jon’s story is being reduced to his hunger and his indecision. He is right to say that they are in the middle and that flipping isn’t a good idea because it puts them at the bottom of the totem pole so I wonder why he made that 180 degree turn before consulting Jaclyn. We didn’t see him talk to Missy either so we have to wander if it was simply cut out to make us think that Jeremy was really in trouble. I don’t see Jon as a contender anymore after this episode.
The Women's alliance
Natalie: If this was the crucial merge episode then Natalie’s fans had to be disappointed by her absence from the story. She was only one of Jeremy’s numbers and we didn’t hear from her at all. Like Reed, she will be the next to go if her strong ally is voted out. If Jeremy wins the battle, she will be nothing more than his honorary Loved One.
Baylor: Forced into the back seat by her mom, one could think that Baylor rebels but everything we have seen about her tells us that she will follow her mother’s lead.
Jeremy: This alliance could also be considered as Jeremy's but I thought that calling it the women's alliance would reflect a bit more how this season has developed and the difference between Josh and Jeremy: Josh refused to be considered one of the girls but Jeremy used his good rapport with women to create solid bonds.
With the episode built around his conflict with Josh and the misdirection pointing to his fall, we should feel good about Jeremy's chances to win the game. However, we still see his overconfidence and his lack of attention to details, going off for a swim when the vote was still being discussed. While I think that Jeremy will get Josh, I think he will be blind to the trouble from within his alliance. Like Keith, he'll probably be surprised by Missy’s lies.
Missy: This episode finally gave us her signature confessional, the one where she related her real life experience to her game and how she will get Baylor to follow her lead instead of just looking out to protect her kid. Missy wasn’t only Julie’s Island “Loved One,” everyone in her alliance likes and trusts her. When she told Baylor how to handle the questions and how she needs to separate her heart from the game, Missy also showed us that she wasn’t like Dawn or Lisa, a nice woman that cannot put her emotions aside.
Missy is also aware of what is going on, eavesdropping on the conversation between Josh, Jon and Jaclyn. Maybe Jon will want to make the big move but Jaclyn should keep him in line and, in the end, he should vote with his “island Mother”. Missy lost Keith however and that could turn out to be her last obstacle but I think she will come out on top there also. Even without the all important vote after the merger, I see Missy as our Sole Survivor.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
11-09-14, 00:59 AM (EST)

71. "RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead:"

Jaclyn's boot is building up to me. I feel her and Jon's wishywashiness is going to catch up to them and Jon's edit may indeed show he's going to challenge dog(I can't say the other word) his way to the end. Too much swing vote stuff going on with them and something big will happen. I think Probst said he couldn't predict how this season would turn out meaning there will be no pagonging. Keith's "worst thing in survivor" could indeed be what is usually the worst thing in the show that can cancel your chances of winning-flipping.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-09-14, 12:04 PM (EST)

72. "RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead:"

LAST EDITED ON 11-09-14 AT 01:40 PM (EST)
Michel, great read as always, but I am not so sure. I certainly respect your opinion at these things, so your take this week gives me great pause. But, as Veruca used to say, the editing can be interpreted differently by each of us, and your take may not exactly match up with mine. I am still not ready to call a winner, but things are indeed unfolding.
First of all, I wanted to comment on the episode before the merge when they arrived at TC and there was a nod to Josh from Jon....made me feel that they would work together in the future. And, with the last episode, Jon did decide to side with Josh...at least for the time being. So, it was foreshadowing. I would suspect after the next episode, however, that it will be them going head to head...
The intro: Hunahpu was starving, traded everything for a bag of rice and nobody felt it more than Julie...but despite losing everything, Hun won the IC. Then we hear Keith, “we can’t catch a break, it is frustrating”...then the spit....This start to the introduction summed up the gist of the last episode. Jeremy, in the last episode, is the one that told us, the brainiacs made a horrible decision and it would cost them ~ meaning ME ~ dearly...it would cost them a number, Julie.
At Coyopa:
Dale was in trouble and hoped his fake II would get him through, see him making the offer to give Jon his idol if he is not voted out tonight, “Dude”, says Jon....The majority alliance decided to split the vote between Dale and Keith...Missy in conf: I’m sad about that, but, better Keith than me. In the end, Keith was shocked to get votes but was glad Dale went home, leaving Keith confused and in the dark(See Keith put his head down and shake his head, and he’s right there next to Missy)...12 left.
First of all in the recap, no one got the credit for orchestration of the Dale boot, nor did anyone get chastised for believing Dale had a real idol. So, Missy was not given credit for making the tough decisions...this omission, I thought, was not a good sign. The "majority alliance" got the credit, and that was better for Jon, imo. BUT, Missy was shown as alienating Keith. Clearly, Keith will not be siding with Missy come the merge, he'll eagerly go to Josh and company. And, I have a feeling it could cause trouble for Jeremy, and may bite Julie and Baylor later...fwiw. (Counterpoint to michel’s theory is that you could possibly write this off as doubt cast on Missy for winning.
As we see Keith with the fire, and ominous, serious, confrontational music is playing....leading up to: Missy gets the confessional about writing Keith's name last night, she knew it wouldn't sit pretty...Keith was pissed and he let them know it, Missy talks to him about her rationale, and his response is: You could have let me know.... Interesting to note that Missy and Baylor were defensive of their actions, while Jaclyn is lying there playing with her fingernails, clearly not seen as a culprit... Keith told us he was done with them, he needs somebody that stays loyal, and he will leave them "high and dry". So, we all know where Keith stands! I loved the animal imagery with the little frog hanging high and dry....we will have to pay attention where this little frog turns up again in the show, if at all. I took the frog, hanging by one finger, as a bad sign for Missy....she'll be left high and dry by the others, or at least by Keith...
Moving to Camp Hanahpu, we hear upbeat, up tempo, lively, flute based music playing....Then we have Natalie reading treemail at Hunahpu, OMG, and we get Josh's confessional about how they didn't get a chance to vote Jeremy out, but they can still do this. He and Reed go off and take inventory...them, Alec, Wes, and he'll bring Keith...
Then the confessional from Jeremy: Saying while Reed and Josh were together, he took a backseat and let them run things. He was fine with that, but now it's merge time and I want to crush them! I still cannot discount Jeremy as having a winning edit either. He clearly has a snarky, over-confident, and arrogant way about him, but look who he is playing with. The other smart player, apparently Kelly, was indeed with Jeremy. He’s playing the game and his assessments and actions are laser focused. Clearly, he will be a target, and getting in bed with all the girls could indeed bite him in the end, when he doesn’t win a crucial immunity...time will tell.
So, with news of the merge the line is drawn in the sand, when we get confessionals from 2 power players Josh and Jeremy. In contrast, at Coyopa, Baylor lets them know the merge is here, and it's Jacklyn that get the confessional...she's excited for her and Jon they made it together, we are definitely keeping our options open...they go to the merge site...
We then hear a confessional from Reed: Merge is a whole new chapter, don't know what it will bring, blood vs water element, and there are people that don't have their relatives anymore, don't know?
Jon got the first confessional with the merge: It was about how much food there was, and he was jubilant, "It's awesome!" I agree, Jon is cast as a frivolous player at times, but in a season of B. v W. I don’t know if it’s a bad thing? I do see him as kind of dumb and see how he could be dismissed as a winner, but will he be dismissed by the current players, until it’s too late? We know he’s competitive, and having a young couple in love really hits home the close bonds that loved ones represents. So, I am not ready to count this underdog out....underdog edit, perhaps?
Julie gives us a critical confessional at this point: On our previous tribe we had one couple, reed and josh, now that we have merged it's tough on me because I am missing my BF John, I want to cry... {rant}I do not know how Survivor has taken such a 180 degree turn on their stance on quitters, but, as someone that would have loved to have the opportunity to get on this show, it SUCKS. Quit giving them more rice, AND, quit being nice to quitters! UGH. {/rant}
We then get a train of confessionals: Wes says something about the feast being the merge highlight, as we see Julie dump the trail mix bowl into her bag, then Keith has a conf: He could care less about Missy and Baylor. The whole episode underlines this, that Keith is no longer with Missy and Baylor...this is important, I agree...Keith could be the one that takes out one of the pair...
Josh conf: the game is speeding, you are going through exhaustion, mind craziness, and the elements, now we are merged it's daunting, so many people, this will make or break it... if you will have the numbers for the rest of this game. After hearing Josh have this meaty confessional, we actually see Jeremy getting after it...he’s a man of action...Note that he “starts” with his number one, Natalie. We see him with Natalie, but we don’t hear him confirm things with her, while we “hear” him confirm with the rest of his allies. I am beginning to think that Natalie is the dog that didn’t bark, and that is so funny to me, knowing how VOCAL she and her sister were in the Amazing Race!
...see Jeremy and Nat...Natalie’s actions speak louder than words, perhaps.
Jeremy confessional: The merge is a milestone, but this is where the game starts, the first part was prelim, this is where the game starts....
Then we see he and Julie talking and Julie tells him that these days are tough to see everyone with their loved ones, what ever you are feeling, know I am feeling the same thing.
Jeremy continues on in conf: the only way I can continue on in this game is with numbers; I have myself, Nat, Julie is a number, now I need to get two couples, Jon/Jacklyn, missy/Baylor. Then we see Jon and Jeremy walking together and Jeremy is working him...Jeremy tells us that the number one person he wanted to talk to first was Jon, and Jeremy asks him how he's doing...Jon tells him that he and Missy are still good, and they talk about their numbers...Jeremy, Nat, Julie, Missy/Baylor and he and Jacklyn....Jeremy continues: the first vibe I got from Jon was a good vibe, we are back together, we are good *Then we see a mother possom, carrying her babies on her back....representing Jeremy, getting all the peeps he needs moving forward together...
We see that Jeremy is the one that is covering all his bases and getting his numbers set. Next he goes to Missy...and Missy confirms the numbers: I am so glad to have you back, we are good....we have 7 we are good! *Just wanted to point out it’s Jon that speaks for Jaclyn and Missy that speaks for Baylor.
Then we hear Josh's observations and counter: Josh: (see Jeremy talking to everyone), I tell you what, alliances are crazy right now, there is a lot of mayhem and a lot of talking right now...Jeremy is gathering every one, his troops, because he knows, it could be the couples... the goal is to get the numbers before he gets the numbers because if not, we are screwed.
Next we have a visual of tons of crabs scurrying all over the tidal beach...representing the scurrying going on at Huyopa...Josh wishes Wes a Happy Birthday to Wes before Keith, and Keith has a conf about it...he forgot at first, but he did wish him a Happy Birthday, here on the beach! Yes, I agree, Keith needs time to figure it out, but in the end he roasted the crab for Wes, and it’s also a nod to the socially aware, Josh.
Josh and Reed are seen and they are giving props to Jeremy, because they see him playing...Josh conf: 4 singles, the rest couples, why don't the couples stick together and take out the others? Right now I have me and reed, alec, wes and keith, we need 7, I think I can still get Baylor to vote with me, because i did save her once, and then Missy will transfer with her to me... Obviously, this is his plan "A"...
WE see him then go to Baylor and basically strike out...Josh has a conf about how upset he is that he saved her twice, and Baylor has a conf about thanks for saving me but now I have to vote you out....Reed consoles him, she's doing this because she's with her mom now.
Baylor tells us: Mom had a bunch of alliances, but she only had one strong one, with Josh. She's (Missy) with Jon, Jacklyn, Jeremy and Natalie but being aligned with Josh still is really difficult right now.
Josh came up to me and said are we good?, and Bay said, as far as I know...he said Reed and I have your back...I am going to have to have a talk with my mom...Bay says she wants him to respect her and Missy says he will respect you when you blindside him..Missy tells him she has to be a little bit phony. Clearly, Missy is the calculating one with her eye on the prize, while Baylor is the emotional player whose heart is getting in the way of her game play.
Missy continues in conf: Baylor is 20, sometimes she acts 30, sometimes she acts 10. She has a need to please, but she's going to have to handle her heart, when it comes down to voting Reed or Josh out...See Missy tell Baylor...you have to do what I said, because I already told Jeremy, we have the numbers, Josh doesn't, he's freaking out, this is a game. You have to suck it up, just smile to everybody ...just tell him, yeah, ok, I will go and ask my mom...
The confessional continues: The difference is that she is coming to me and asking...I have made some bad decisions in my life, been married 1, 2, 3 times and she has had to watch them. I felt crappy about that...to have your kid watch you go through it, but here, she's coming to me, I get to redeem myself here. She's watching me, trust me on this, get in the back seat and let me drive, trust me and let me drive.
When Missy had that meaty confessional I did indeed hear soft, pleasant, nice, journey player - type music playing, especially toward the end of the confessional. Could Missy be our journey player? It definitely crossed my mind. The mom that gets to redeem herself to her daughter, to take charge and be in the drivers seat for a while, let her daughter relax, because Momma Missy has her back for a change? Sure sounded like it to me...Survivor is providing her the chance for redemption to her daughter...
Cut to Josh with a confessional about Baylor is now with her mom, so we need Jon and Jaclyn, then see him go to them...Josh tells them getting in bed with Jeremy, he's the strongest guy out here...who do you think they will give the money too, broadway guys or a fireman with 2 kids...Josh: that's my plea to you...Then, we see Missy come up, Jon says, Hi Missy....funny! Missy sees them talking and interjects herself, a heavy presence and warning perhaps to Jon?
Jon conf: Josh approached Jack and I, once again we find ourselves in the middle, between 2 couples, we were in a power position...
Jon and Jack go off...Jon continues in conf: once again we are given a lot of opportunities to control our fate.
once again we are hit over the head with Jon and Jaclyn being in the middle, the power couple, in the position to control their fate. We get this from Jiffy as well regarding this season...in a season full of decisions, will you choose the right course. So, I can’t help but feel that Jon is integral to this story, will his choices be the right ones in the end?
Jaclyn: this is huge
Jon continues: Josh and Reed tied to keeping couples which would get us to top 6...but, they make it tough, they are broadway stars...
Jaclyn: again we are in the middle, this is like a big decision
Jaclyn: one wrong vote could be a million dollar decision
Once again, Jon and Jacklyn are edited to be the true power couple...go with Jeremy or go with Josh? Whoever they choose will be the dominant group and will most likely contain the winner among them.
Then we had the Julie and trail mix scandal. Jon was the one that went and looked in her bag and had a conf: at home who cares, but here, we don't have any thing to eat...if I can't trust somebody in my alliance...ridiculous, she's selfish...
The first mention that he can't trust someone in the alliance that he is holding closest to...Jeremy’s.
Then a conf from Julie about how you could cut the tension with a knife, and now, things don't look too good for her...
Josh has a conf just prior to the IC, about how he is in trouble and really needs the IC win...
Then we have the IC, Jiffy explains the rules, and we have this verbiage:
Jeremy is out first, that's how quickly it can happen. Keep your concentration, this round will last 10 minutes...see clouds moving in, Missy is out, Julie is out,
Next round: farthest away now...Reed is out, Baylor is out, Alec is next, Jacklyn is out, down to five, gust of wind, Natalie is out, down to 4, josh, wes, keith, and Jon.
25 minutes done, final part of the challenge is adding another ball.
Next round: 4 starters...Josh, wes, keith, Jon...2 balls on their disc...Josh is out, see Jeremy chuckle...Jon is out, father and son, keith and Wes is out, Keith WINS!
Keith gets a conf: Keith conf: It's crazy, I won immunity! It came down to me and Wes. I am not ready to hand the reigns over to him yet, tonight is critical....we'll know exactly where everybody stands after tonights vote.
They arrive back to camp, and we see the birds eating the dead carrion on the beach, which is Julie getting eaten alive. Jeremy is first and he has a conf about how he sucked at the challenge and he thought he would be so good at them...he was the first one out, before a mom, an old guy, and even Julie beat him! Then he has the confessional in the "death spot"...after the IC he says, but going to the TC, tonight, I feel like I am safe, I have the numbers..
I am thinking, WHOA, I didn't see this coming right now!
Next we have conf's from Julie about hearing Alec say something snarky, and missing her loved one, then we see Julie chat with Missy... I am feeling lost and confused.
Missy says do you feel done? Do you feel like toast? Julie says she doesn't know what to do everyone has their loved ones, and missy tells her I am your loved one...she says she needs her space...
Missy in conf: she stole some food put it in her bag, and if she goes home it would really screw up the plan, she should stick it out one more day,
Missy continues to Julie: we need you
Julie in Conf: I get it... she needs me because they need me to get farther, I can make a decision right now based on what I need.
*Here is an example of Missy failing. Her influence on others is not perfect...will her influence on her alliance mates control her destiny, or like Julie, will they choose their own path?
See Jon and Jeremy: Jon is telling Jeremy that Josh says that you will be hard to beat,
Jeremy: Jeremy tells him I was out first..Jeremy in conf: Josh is the only one in Josh's alliance that is playing the game, if you take him out, it's over
Josh in conf: This is my home turf. I am playing the game, but I have to give Jeremy props, he is playing the game and playing it well. It's opposite to what I am doing so it is frustrating, we have to get Jacklyn and Jon. It would make sense to keep couples together and singles out.
We see Jeremy stripping down to go for a swim...see Jeremy swimming in the water alone, Josh continues in conf: why don't we get rid of people that don't have a loved one anymore? This could be a nod to Jeremy....he will end up swimming alone at the end too? Or not?
Then we see Josh, Keith, and Wes all talking to Jon...Keith: If we don't stick together he will come after everyone of us...pull the trigger on him first...And Jeremy is big on taking out the couples...having your loved one with you, makes it more camaraderie.
Next, Jon has a very meaty confessional: Talking to people, he is finding himself making a complete 180...looks like we are jumping on the couples train and voting Jeremy out tonight, it's going to suck, because I really like Jeremy...I don't want to ,but it's the best for my game, going to suck, but we gotta do this, I have preached against jumping ship, because if you jump you will be on the bottom of the totem pole, but we are a couple, so going with Josh, Reed, Alex, Wes and Keith has more long term potential with fewer bumps in the road...nice music playing when he had his confessional...the music underlined the importance to this confessional, imo. The ability to size up the situation and take your best option for you at the time, may be how Jon wins....IF he wins. Being adaptable, making the right decision to get you to the end, no matter how difficult could be the strategy. Jon showed us here that he can make the tough choices and go against the people who are relying on him, namely Jeremy and Missy. Will he do it again, in the end? Jiffy told us that he could not have predicted the winner this season...really still makes me think that Jon is still in the running for winner...?
Then you see Jon and Jaclyn walking away holding hands and there is a symbol that is heard as they go...which makes this an important confessional.
Then we cut to the shelter area where someone asks, where's Julie...we hear Alec say she heard me hating on her, somebody had to say it. I really think Alec is such a tool. Boy, if he wasn't good at challenges, or didn't have the potential to be good at challenges, he'd be a perfect goat.
Then we have Julie and Jiffy scene, she goes. Then Jiffy tells the tribe and Jeremy has the first conf: she was my number, I needed that, I could be going home tonight, then Missy has a conf next...sad, she talked to her last.
Then Josh: it's a complicated game, you don't want them to quit if you are in an alliance with them, on the other hand, my odds just got better...
Josh in conf: Julie quit and that puts Jeremy with one less, and our odds just got better, puts Jeremy and that alliance at unease because they have one less member.
Then Jeremy tells Jiffy: I'm pissed, keep her warm, give her food...
Alex adds: she does nothing...she dug herself in a hole.
Jaclyn adds: she stole food and kept it to herself, it makes people mad.
Jon: she was so scared of living up to the fact, oh yeah, I am a selfish person.
All the nasty confessionals regarding the players and their feelings for Julie with her quit, may be CBS underlining their disdain for quitters in a subtle way...
No TC tonight, then 2 confessionals...
Josh: I do feel with Julie's exit, it was not on our side because we wanted to get Jeremy out right then, but he's on borrowed time right now, I feel like it was 80 percent it would have been him tonight...he thought it was me or Reed tonight.J
Jeremy: Julie messed it up, because I am upset because she really messed up my plans...
This episode was somewhat of a shocker to me as I really saw Jeremy's alliance advancing in the game, along with Jon and Jaclyn. But, with the previews, we can clearly see, thanks to the editing thread, that the power couple, Jon and Jaclyn, will most likely swing back to Jeremy and company.
For next week, just on the editing alone, my gut says that Josh wins immunity and Alec goes home. It will either be Alec or Josh. Alec, Wes, Josh, and Reed are in big trouble, Keith has an idol, and Kelly told us that Missy most likely knows...I agree, Missy has a whole new opponent in Keith....has she met her match?
I thought Missy had a journey player-like edit with her confessional about being divorced 3 times and now she gets to be the mom and drive the car, telling Baylor, you just relax, and count on me for a change.
I think Jon and Jaclyn being adaptable to changing situations may serve them well.
Jeremy now has 2 formidable opponents...Keith and Josh. Secondarily, Wes and Reed. Jeremy is a great shield, not only for Natalie, but will be for Jon/Jaclyn too, if they do decide to go with him. Missy and Baylor are making enemies all by themselves right now...Josh and Keith as well.
So, I still see the ones that are most out of the limelight as Jon and Jaclyn. I don't see anyone talking about opposing either of them right now, everyone is still trying to woo them...On a side note, Natalie is flying under the radar in a beautiful way as well.
I thought Keith had a stellar episode this time. He is playing this game and he’s more observant of the people around him than it may appear. He won immunity...he's not ready to hand the reigns over to anyone, just yet? He is figuring it out. Missy and Baylor have crossed a line with him, and he’s called Jeremy out as the biggest threat, “to come after each one of us”! He has an idol in his pocket, and has been edited to keep it to himself. He did alot of the persuading to get Jon on board...He’s discounted by everyone.
I believe that Jon and Jeremy are still our strongest contenders for the winner, but I think that Keith, Missy, and Natalie cannot be dismissed either.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-09-14, 03:22 PM (EST)

73. "RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead:"

Really enjoyed reading your thoughts FP and, yes, it certainly can be interpreted in different ways. Missy isn't the popular choice right now but I'll try to answer your reservations:
You wrote:
"So, Missy was not given credit for making the tough decisions...this omission, I thought, was not a good sign"
Missy isn't edited as an upfront strategist but as the mom that takes care of her daughter. Since she would be a surprise winner, then I don,t expect her to get credit for the votes. It's critical for a Tony or a Tom to get credit but not for a Sandra or a Danni.
"Survivor is providing her the chance for redemption to her daughter..."
That is one of the main reasons why I think she wins. Her story arc is about redemption since it started with jeff telling us that baylor had to be the mother. Now, we see that Baylor is playing scared but her mom knows what is going on and how to act. We know that missy made bad decisions in real life so she can't have a redemption story if she makes a bad move in this game. To redeem herself, Missy HAS to make the right decisions.
"*Here is an example of Missy failing. Her influence on others is not perfect...will her influence on her alliance mates control her destiny, or like Julie, will they choose their own path?"
This was Julie's failure, not Missy's. It's simply another hurdle on her path to the end.
Keith had a great episode as you wrote but it told me that he is in for a negative turn. His story was to take a few days to figure things out yet, when he saw those two votes against him, he reacted just like Lex and his gut: He spit on his alliance with Missy. I really think he will regret it. Also, Keith was shown to be a neglectful father, forgetting his son's birthday. That funny little scene could be very symbolic.
We'll see how it goes. Besides Missy, I give Jeremy the best shot to win now because Jon's indecision has been too clearly shown.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-09-14, 04:23 PM (EST)

74. "RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead:"

Great counter points, michel! You could be right on the money!

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
11-10-14, 10:11 PM (EST)

75. "RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead:"

LAST EDITED ON 11-10-14 AT 10:17 PM (EST)
I'm a little confused by Missy's edit too. Like most people, I consider her a strong contender. But from seeing this episode, I'm really starting to wonder if she's going to get the villain edit post-merge.
I don't think the interaction between her and Baylor portrayed either of them in a particularly good light. Baylor, of course, comes off as the wishy-washy daughter. However, the way Missy strong-arms her daughter and tells Baylor to deflect to her makes me wonder if Missy really respects Baylor at all. It definitely established her as a strategic player, but it left an icky taste in my mouth. It made Missy look a little evil stepmother-ish. It's all subjective, of course, but I can't think of another winner where I really had such an "Ew" moment regarding their personality.
And Julie seeing right through her plea also made Missy look like a snake. I feel like they could have easily edited out Julie's realization or spun it in a different manner. They needed to show the Julie/Missy convo, but they could have thrown Julie a little more under the bus for just being stupid and ditching her loving allies.
I don't think any of these things necessarily mean Missy can't win because she's obviously one of the top 3 or 4 contenders. But I think the tone of the next episode is going to dictate where the rest of Missy's edit is going to go. If the editors soften her edit, she's probably the winner. If they don't, it might mean she's the foil for the Jeremy/Jon/Josh winner.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-12-14, 08:13 PM (EST)

76. "RE: Episode 7 - Follow My Lead:"

Thank you for the feedback, Jims, I appreciate it.
As for a winner's EW moment, I think Brian had a few particularly when he joked around with Clay about the women doing women's work. Then Fabio pissed in the challenge pool. Then there was Aras who treated Bruce like a child.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-15-14, 05:44 PM (EST)

77. "Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

After Blood and Water merged, Jeff reminded us that there were two battling alliances; one led by Jeremy, the other alliance led by Josh.
Both were fighting for Jon and Jaclyn (who were shown strolling on the beach, as if without a care in the world)
We heard Jon saying that they were in the middle for the 3rd time and he talked with Jaclyn about the importance of the decision.
It was Josh that convinced them to join his alliance and blindside Jeremy.
Fortunately for Jeremy, Julie made a shocking decision... throwing a wrench in Josh’s plan to take out Jeremy and leaving the game up in the air.
Quite ironically, we heard Josh say that Jeremy was on borrowed time and didn’t realize it.
This was quite a straightforward recap but it did drive the point that Jeremy was saved by Julie’s quit. Jeff could have easily spun a little uncertainty in the outcome. Anyone saying that Jeremy will be our victor has to explain this choice of editing line. The editors would be willingly opening their victor to harsh criticism, everyone saying that Jeremy won only by luck. Does the same apply to everyone in Jeremy’s alliance? Many players have won even if their leader and most of their alliance got wiped out so I don’t think we can transfer Jeremy’s luck directly to them.
On the other hand, Keith’s supporters must have been encouraged to hear Josh say that they would give the money to the fireman. Jeremy isn’t the only fireman in that cast. Unfortunately, this episode would show that only one fireman is worthy of the title and it’s not a member of the Nale family.

I don’t think it was good to show Jon and Jaclyn strolling on the beach when Jeff underlined their critical situation. It made it look as if they didn’t care about the game, only about being together.
There is one thing that was brought up in this recap that wasn’t answered in this episode: Is Jeremy living on borrowed times? We will have to look closely at the scenes if we want to offer an answer.
A Bunch of Pigs
Huyopa – Day 19
The tribe was sitting next to the fire when we heard Missy say: “I am so pissed that Julie quit that way. I woke up going: Are you serious? You don’t quit.”
Missy had the first confessional of the evening: “Because Julie quit, we didn’t have to go to Tribal and it really threw a wrinkle in the plan I think for everybody. My alliance has their plan: Vote Josh out. We were ready to go but we can’t do that until we get to a Tribal.”
I’m sure this confessional is going to be interpreted in different ways. Some will say that it’s bad for Missy’s future that she was so out of the loop that she was still talking of the plan to eliminate Josh as if it was going to work. Others will say that it doesn’t matter since the plan did work in the end. For me, I will say that the important thing is that Missy was given airtime. She got to tell us how Julie’s departure affected them. Winners often get the first confessional of the evening, especially when the outcome of the previous episode had repercussions on their own game.
Jon asked Jaclyn if they were playing the game or just being deceitful by promising different things to different people.
That comment was underlined by a very noticeable rattle, the sure sign that we just heard something dumb. Jaclyn’s facial expression left no doubt about what she thought of Jon’s qualms. This is Survivor, she seemed to be saying. This is another indication that Jaclyn is the smarter player in this couple.
Jon gave an interview: “We didn’t have a Tribal last night so nobody knows exactly where Jaclyn and I stand right now. They think I’m solid on that side, I’m solid on that side, but the fact is we decided on taking out Jeremy. Jeremy is going to be going home very, very soon. Originally, we told him that we were down with voting out Josh so I don’t think that he has any clue whatsoever that Jaclyn and I have flipped but ultimately, I have to decide what my best path is and my best path right now does not include Jeremy.”
While we heard Jon’s confessional, we had images of a worry free Jeremy, simply sitting next to the shelter.
I found it interesting that Jon kept using the words “right now” considering that he switches his mind every time someone new talks to him. According to Jon, his best path doesn’t include Jeremy but they will be travelling together for a little while longer at least. Does that mean that Jon took a bad path? We can also wonder where Missy fit in his plans since we only heard him say he was going after Jeremy. Was he thinking that he could boot Jeremy but stay with Missy? As for Jeremy, I found it troubling that he was shown completely relaxed when Jon was talking of booting him. It made me think that, despite the irony of Josh’s recap confessional and the outcome of this episode, Jeremy is living on borrowed times. Both big rivals could be proven wrong before long.
The Reward Challenge
It was played in teams and Jeff mentioned a school yard pick. Unfortunately, for those of us that enjoy seeing the picks being made just as much as we enjoy seeing a coconut chop style challenge, the editors didn’t include the formation of the teams. We simply saw that team Yellow had Reed, Jeremy, Keith, Wes and Natalie while team Blue had Baylor, Jaclyn, Jon, Josh and Alec. Missy wasn’t picked by either team and had no shot at the reward.
The press images gave us a hint that Reed and Baylor were the team captains so let’s see if we can figure out the picking order. Jon had to be the first overall pick so that means Baylor held the first draft choice. That would mean Reed picked Jeremy, the next strongest man with his first pick. Baylor’s next two picks would have been Alec and Josh leaving Reed to counter with Wes and Keith. That would mean that Jaclyn was the first woman picked followed by Natalie. If it did go that way then the players went for strength before allies or Loved Ones. Or maybe Reed and Josh talked about it before and decided to stay apart to have ears on both sides. That would be very smart but we didn’t hear about it since these two players won’t matter in the end.
If an Ice tea maker was thinking of sponsoring Survivor, the players didn’t help CBS sell the advertising: They were all Ooooh! and Aaaaah! at the mention of beer and margaritas but when Jeff mentioned Ice tea it was more like “You can have mine.”
The team with 4 men got an early lead and never relinquished it. The only interesting comment that I picked up came from Natalie who said: “Guys, I’m going to run up, Ok?” She did climb up the temple and Reed, Jeremy, Wes, Natalie and Keith won reward.
When those five had to choose one person to go to Exile Island, we heard Keith say: “I’d feel bad about sending Missy.” Natalie asked: “Who hasn’t gone?” Someone replied: “Jon and Alec.”
Keith spoke for the group: “We are going to send Jon.” Asked to explain the decision, Keith said that Jon was a big guy and Wes added that he could make it on his own.
That was a particularly strange choice considering that everyone was courting Jon for his vote. Jon certainly didn’t flip back to Jeremy’s side because Keith and Wes sent him to Exile Island but it would have been wiser to keep him happy. Like Cirie in Micronesia, he should have been carried around on a chariot-type thing instead of sent in Exile. Sending Alec away and letting Jon in camp to talk with Josh would have certainly been a better decision.
After the commercial break, we followed the victors to a Taco bar that was set up on the beach just a few yards away from the challenge area. Everyone went for the margaritas and they toasted to the “W”.
Reed had an interview: “We won the reward which was amazing... What was so strange is that we have a really eclectic mix of people from two different alliances together that don’t have anything to talk about necessarily and we’re all just trying to keep things calm and kind of keep that homeostasis.”
If Reed was the team captain then he is partly responsible for this strange group that offered no openings for tactical talks. If anything, he should have picked Missy (or encouraged the one making the pick if it wasn’t him) instead of Natalie in order to separate the mom from her daughter.

Reed and Wes mentioned that Josh had been looking for this kind of reward.
To the group, Natalie asked if they should be talking about strategy like other people do during rewards. Jeremy laughed at that.
Natalie in confessional: “There is no real alliance between anybody here. It’s kind of Jeremy and me on one side and Reed, Wes and Keith on the other. You know, if we had Missy or Jon over here, we would be strategizing the entire time.”
Keith then spoke up: “I don’t know about you all but, last night, Julie was kind of my pick and then she quits. If they had said Julie is gone but you are still going, Man! I had no idea.”
Wes agreed: “If he had said we were going to Tribal, I would have been screwed.”
Jeremy in confessional: “Keith comes up and said: If we had to vote somebody out yesterday, I don’t know what we would have done, like we were all up in the air. He’s telling me this and I’m looking at him like come on: I know you guys were targeting me. Get out of here. It tells me that Keith is at least trying to play the game but I don’t think he is very good at it.”
Either Jeremy is right and Keith isn’t very good at this game or Keith really didn’t know what was going on. Both options aren’t good for those that think Keith can win. It won’t be the only time that Keith’s character takes a hit in this episode.

Not listening to his father’s advice, Wes ordered a pile of extra food with extra toppings and alcohol.
Wes in interview: “My dad said, slow down and enjoy it. Of course I didn’t at all... I wish I had the will power to control myself. It was all fun and games until I felt like crap.”
Keith had an interview: “Wes is a good kid. He hasn’t been in jail yet but he does make some mistakes. I can only give him some words of wisdom, that’s all I can do.”
Wisdom? From Keith? Poor Wes! I cracked up when I heard Keith’s definition of a good kid is one that avoids jail time! All kidding aside, Keith is wise in his own way but I doubt it will be enough to help Wes who, as a survivor player goes, hasn’t shown us anything. The funny thing is that Jeremy didn’t look much better than Wes! It’s good for Jeremy that the editors didn’t linger on his present condition. Some will say that we were shown both Tom and Brian when they had a little too much to drink and that it served to flesh them out but, here, the context is totally different. First, mentalities have changed and being drunk isn’t as acceptable today as it was just a few years ago. The context of this season is also different because the rice incident told us that overindulging isn’t a good way to play this game.
Huyopa – Day 19
After preparing some snails for lunch, Josh had a confessional: “Needless to say, we lost...It could not have gone better as far as the people I needed to be talking to. And the people I needed to be bonding with. I’m going to put my feelers out there one more time with Baylor today and try to get the target off my back.”
Taking a walk away from the shelter, Josh told Baylor: “I think you owe me at least one to not vote me out... I feel I stuck my neck out for you a couple of times.”
Baylor’s interview: “It was uncomfortable when Josh came up to me and said that you owe me. I almost feel like I am being blackmailed a little bit. To me, Josh doesn’t seem like a guy who comes from a Christian family...I thought you should give a gift without expecting anything in return so I feel like I don’t owe him anything.”
This sounded a lot like hollow rationalization and saying that Josh’s actions constituted blackmail was simply wrong. Baylor simply had to tell us that she didn’t trust Josh and that she had chosen a different course of actions and the viewers would have accepted it. Thinking this way tells us that Baylor still cannot own her game. She has to revile Josh, turn him into a villain, in order to justify her actions. That won’t work on a juror. Of course, this is another example that tells us that Baylor will have to defend her actions in the end. She is turning into a very interesting goat, isn’t she?
She told Josh that she heard others say that he was dragging her along just to use her as a vote.
Josh in confessional: “I was trying to secure her and Missy’s vote for the couples just to get us a couple more numbers, but Missy is kind of controlling Baylor right now and I don’t think they are going to vote with the couples so, at this point, I am pretty fed up with Baylor.”
Next, Josh talked to Jaclyn about Baylor: “I told her, here is the deal Baylor: I did save you. It would be great if you just gave me one vote at one point.”
Jaclyn replied: “Well, then it wouldn’t matter anyways because me and Jon aren’t voting you.”
Josh’s confessional continued: “I am really hoping that Jon and Jaclyn are being truthful. But all I can do right now is hope that they are and keep that relationship going.”
Some viewers will point to this conversation and say that Jaclyn wasn’t fair to Josh when she said no one talked to her. I will point out that she said no one campaigned for her vote and Josh was engaging more in gossip than in strategic talks. After seeing that Baylor was a dead end, Josh should have been offering a Final Four pact to Jaclyn but he evidently wasn’t ready to go that far. Anyway, we can also ask when this conversation actually took place. By placing it here, it lets the viewers think that nothing had changed, that Jeremy was still on his way out but what if Jaclyn was only humoring Josh? Was she being phony? This conversation could have actually happened after Jaclyn had talked to the other women and vowed not to vote with the guys. If this exchange had been shown after the immunity challenge, after Jaclyn had told Jon that she wasn’t voting with the guys, then it would have told the viewers that Jaclyn had a good poker face but placed here, it doesn’t have that effect.
Exile Island Day 19
Jon: “Exile Island is extremely desolate and being out here by myself sucks. I miss Jaclyn... she has obviously been helping me make all the decisions. With me away, it gives Jaclyn a chance to build those relationships up so she is not seen a simply the tag-along.” He reaches the urn and reads the clue: “It’s a clue to a new idol that is here on Exile instead of back at our camp.”
Being at low-tide, Jon went directly to the rock sticking out of Exile Island. His search started with the sound of a bass drum being hit 3 times. The music grew in intensity and tension as he searched the ground around the big rock. Finally, he climbed it and saw a small stone that was covering a hole. The joyous music and his laughter told us right away that he had found it.
Jon: “Found me an immunity idol. She is a beauty. That’s a game-changer. It’s exciting to have that power in the game because now, whatever I want to happen is really going to happen.”
It’s funny that, on the first vote after Jon said he’d get his way, he failed! His idol certainly didn’t help him convince Jaclyn to ride with the boys. However, I don’t think this was the intent of this scene. The dramatic music told us that this idol will play a big role in the game and it’s possible that Jon will get his way when he uses it. For now, it’s interesting to note that the two players holding idols are targeting Jeremy. The fireman’s supporters will say that it creates doubts about his chances so that it’s good for him but I think we are being shown that Jeremy is really living on borrowed times. There is something missing in Jeremy’s story when it comes to the idol. We never saw him looking for one despite the clue he received and we never heard him wonder if someone could have found it. This tells me that he could very well fall victim to one of these idols. We heard inside information that he actually did look for the first idol but the edited story is that he is oblivious to the idols so it could cost him the game.
Huyopa – Day 21
The reward winners were back in camp and Wes was complaining, saying that it hadn’t been worth it. He talked about puking, Alec talked about burping and farting and Keith kept spitting.
That led to a confessional by Jeremy: “Wes, Alec and Keith; they are just rude. They are not even trying to hide it and they are laughing about it. As firefighters, we act like that at the firehouse sometimes... but as soon as a woman comes in the room, you shut it down. Everyone is on their best behavior because that’s how you act around women. But these guys, they are the first ones to eat; they jump in front of the girls. I’m like: What are you doing? Have some manners.”
In the middle of this confessional we heard Missy telling Jeremy that he and Jon were the only gentlemen there. “The rest of them, they are a bunch of pigs.”
After the confessional, we saw Alec handing trash to Baylor, telling her to throw it out to sea. She said he was making her feel like a slave but she did while Jaclyn and Missy observed the scene.
Baylor in confessional: “Alec treats me like I am his baby sister who he wants to bug and that has been the case since day one. I am kind of over it.” Missy told Baylor that Alec was like that to all the women. Baylor’s confessional continued: “My mom says just let it go. Unfortunately, I get bugged easily.”
It was Keith’s turn to order Baylor around, telling her she had to get some wood. Jaclyn saw this also. Keith went on: “It’s hard to get good help. If you had been my kid, you would have got whooped 7 times today.”
Missy in confessional: “It’s the most chauvinistic group of men I’ve ever met and I’ve seen rude people before but these guys are the worst.”
This scene practically ends Keith’s chances to win because he is associated too closely to the frat boys. He will continue to be an interesting character, one of the few that can make us (and Jeff) laugh but he isn’t very good at this game. Still, I can’t rule him out completely as our winner which is great.
Alec then turned to Jaclyn, Natalie and Baylor and said: “Girls, keep the fire going.” He added: “I know Natalie will but I don’t know if they will.”
Jaclyn asked the other women: “Shouldn’t they be trying to be nice to me? They need my vote and what I really want, Jon will do.”
Jaclyn’s remark really amused Natalie and Baylor and it made me wonder if, after this episode, the jurors will start to see Jon as the tag-along?
Jaclyn in confessional: “The guys in this tribe are really arrogant and rude. I already knew that but, after Jon left, Oh! My gosh! I saw such a difference in the way they treated me. I was like: Screw you guys. Without me and Jon’s vote, you don’t have anything.”
Jaclyn told Baylor and Natalie that she wasn’t voting with them.
Outside of camp, Keith and Alec were talking about the need to get rid of Jeremy. Keith said he wanted to touch base with Jaclyn but Alec said she was good, that she was voting with Jon. Keith argued that she had been talking to Baylor. Alec was confident that Jon was riding with the boys.
Alec’s interview: “I feel as comfortable as I probably could right now because Jon is a smart dude. He knows that Jeremy is a threat and he trusts me and that’s big and I know that Jaclyn is going to do whatever Jon says. So, this alliance is sticking together and, as long as Jeremy doesn’t win immunity, we are going to vote him out.”
Alec may feel comfortable but the camera showed us that an alligator was lurking while he was shown to be close to the ocean. I’d say that he should be a bit more careful. At this stage of the episode I felt as if Alec could actually become the consensus vote. If Josh had felt the wind changing, he could have easily offered up Alec and still kept his numbers for the next vote. Unfortunately, Alec will continue to stink up the island.
The Immunity Challenge
Jon was eliminated on the second symbol of the first round. Jeff said it was an indication of spending two days on Exile Island but I say it’s because Jeff didn’t show them menu items. I’m sure Jon would have been able to memorize any menu.
For some bizarre reason, Reed, a guy who should be able to memorize lines in a play, showed a temple, an image that wasn’t even part of the list. He went out right after Jon.
(Maybe the first round had more than 4 items or Reed threw the competition.)
Wes and Alec both missed the 4th item on the list. I certainly can understand that.
The next list had 7 icons (Stephen’s magic number!) Natalie missed on the list’s first icon and Baylor followed her to the losers’ bench on the next one. Jaclyn missed the third so we were down to 4. The 5th icon got both Keith and Missy, leaving Josh and Jeremy to battle it out. Someone whispered: “Come on Josh” and it seemed to be Jon who had turned to Jaclyn.
Jeremy won the challenge on the next icon. His reaction was very mild, just a small fist pump and he hugged Josh. That was the mark of a true competitor.
Huyopa - Day 21
Arriving back in camp, everyone congratulated Jeremy. Then Jaclyn hugged Jon and he said to her ear: “I have the idol.”

Jeremy in confessionals: “I won the immunity challenge today and it’s a beautiful thing. I know that Josh and his goons were coming after me so it’s huge. I’m pretty sure that our alliance is all set with voting for Josh. The two of us have been battling each other for control of the game but now it’s all about Jon and Jaclyn and I’m hoping they are on my side because, if they’re not, I’m going to have to continue winning this beautiful thing in order for me to stay alive.”
Talking with Reed, Wes and Alec, Josh put the new target on Baylor. Alec agreed saying that Keith wanted to see Baylor go.
Josh (solo): “Right now, the plan is to vote for Baylor tonight. I tried to get Baylor on my side but she didn’t go for it. So, she’s got to go. Right now, we are relying on Jon and Jaclyn to be on my side because if not, today is my last day out here.”
If everything depended on Jon and Jaclyn maybe Josh should have considered asking their opinion. He could even have sacrificed Alec if it would have gotten him those two precious votes. The guys were acting as if Keith’s vote was the most valuable one to secure. It was a really dumb move by Josh to impose his personal agenda at such a critical stage. He should have been thinking of getting on Jon and Jaclyn’s side instead of trying to drag them to his.
The camera focused on another image of a vulture feeding on some carrion and then we saw Jon and Jaclyn taking a walk towards the ocean. Jon wanted to know how things went while he was gone.
Jaclyn answered: “I don’t like the guys anymore, at all.” She told him that she didn’t want to vote with them because the guys don’t talk to her when he isn’t there. She added that they would be harder to beat in immunity challenges. Jaclyn said it would be easier to beat Natalie, Missy and Baylor. Jon objected that they wouldn’t beat Jeremy in the Final 3.
Jon gave us an interview: “Coming back from Exile, I had initially thought that Jaclyn and I were going to be aligning with Josh and the guys, but then Jaclyn brought along some interesting information: While I was gone, the guys were completely ignoring her the whole time and made her feel like crap. (Alec was the one the camera showed at that moment) I mean, this is the love of my life talking however, this is a game and you can’t be acting just on emotions.”
After this, we saw Reed join them in the ocean and told them that the plan was to vote Baylor. He added: “Everyone wants Baylor out because she is annoying.” Jon agreed so Reed left.
Jaclyn in confessional: “Jon and I have to decide which way to go. I thought that Jon would have my back but he is worried of teaming up with Jeremy because his story would win over our story in the final 3. So, Jon’s thinking really far ahead which is stupid but now, I feel that there is this all up in the air with everything.”
Talking to Jeremy, Natalie and Missy, Keith asked whose turn was it to go. Missy asked him if he was voting with the guys.
Keith said no but he added: “I hate to be blunt but Baylor don’t do ___...What gets me is we ask Baylor to do something and she says she is too tired and you (pointing to Missy) jump in and say “I’ll do it.” That fires my @ss.” Missy countered: “But you protect your son too.” Keith disagreed.
Missy gave a confessional: “I’ve been through this gunning for Baylor for a while now and I got my ear bent already today by Keith (imitating his voice): “Baylor don’t do anything”. It doesn’t feel good ever to have your child picked on but I am going to back her, she knows I love her and that’s all that matters.”
Missy told Baylor that Keith pointed the target at her. Baylor couldn’t believe he told her mom that. Missy said he did, adding: “He’s not very smart.” Missy realized she needed to talk to Jon.
Baylor in confessional: “I just found out that Keith spit out my name to my mom which is stupid. You don’t tell the mom that you are voting for the daughter, period. But now, I am obviously on the chopping block. I have sickening butterflies in my stomach so I just have to be prepared and hope my alliance pulls through.”
We saw Missy walking along the beach with Jon, telling him that they had to stick with the plan to vote out Josh. Jon simply said “Cool.”
It has to be noted that Missy made the same mistake as Josh by telling Jon how to vote instead of asking him for his preference. The difference and I think it’s a big one, was that Josh had already been discussed by the group while Baylor was a new target.
Jon in confessional: “Tonight, Jaclyn and I have to make a really big decision and the success we’ve had so far has been the result of Jaclyn and I working together very well but this time, Jaclyn is not on the same page as I am.”
In the shelter, Jon told Jaclyn, Josh, Reed and Alec that “they are voting Josh.” Alec replied that they were in control of the game and could get Baylor out.
Looking back to the shelter, Jeremy told Natalie and Missy that he didn’t trust Jon.
We heard another portion of Jaclyn’s previous interview: “I don’t want to have anything to do with those guys but it feels like Jon just doesn’t care.” She was seen telling Jon that she felt comfortable with Missy and Jeremy before her confessional resumed: “After tonight, there is going to be a good portion of people mad at us no matter which way we go. It’s hard because you have to weigh so many different things and we are still going back and forth. Hopefully, we will figure it out but, no matter what happens, somebody is not going to be happy.”
Tribal Council
Asked about winning immunity, Jeremy told Jeff that he knew people would have written his name down if he didn’t have immunity.
Josh said he felt the same pressure as Jeremy.
Asked if the alliances were known, Wes said they were and he mentioned that Reed, Josh, Alec and he had teamed up with his dad and that the others knew they were tight.
Jeremy told Jeff that he could be in with Natalie, Missy, Baylor, Jon and Jaclyn. He wasn’t sure though.
Jeff asked Jaclyn where she and Jon were in terms of alliances.
Jaclyn said: “Well, Jon and me, we have been approached by both sides so that puts us in the middle which is interesting.”
Jeff was surprised that Jon and Jaclyn had been so often in the middle.
Jon said that they weren’t looking to be in that position but that they must have a sign that tells people to come to them.
We heard a thunder strike while Jon was trying to joke about the situation. Besides Jaclyn and Missy, no one was laughing.
Asked about the situation, Natalie said she felt protective over the original Hunahpus and that Jon was someone they felt they could trust from the beginning. Jeremy and Missy nodded in agreement. Natalie brought up the point that the guys act in camp as if they don’t need Jaclyn.
Jaclyn jumped in saying that it was SO frustrating. She added: “Everyone goes to Jon and when he went to Exile, nobody bothered to campaign with me. The second he got back, it was all about Jon. Me and Jon, we talk, we make decisions together.”
As soon as Jaclyn expressed her frustration, the camera went to Josh who frowned, probably realizing exactly how and why he had failed. Alec and Reed looked stunned when Jaclyn said that she was part of the decision process. Their shock made me think that they hadn’t even considered the possibility that she could think for herself.
Jaclyn then told Jeff that a few people didn’t respect her.
Missy told Jeff she could clear this up for him: “I am watching a couple of these younger guys pretend like they are in a frat house.” Jeff figured she was talking about Wes and Alec. “You got it” answered Missy: “They literally belch, fart, and spit. They don’t care if there are females there or not.”
Keith intervened: “But we’re not at the Hilton, Missy... I haven’t heard Wesley fart lately but I have a little bit of gas and I’m sure everybody on this panel has had gas. It’s just a normal body function. This is Survivor and stuff like that’s going to happen.”
Everyone, including Jeff, laughed at that!
Asked about the perception, Reed said he had been very respectful of the women out here. He wanted to counter Natalie’s pitch to Jon by saying: “If you side with a group of singles what is to say that they don’t turn right around on you and vote you guys out?”
Jeremy interrupted him, saying: “So you guys aren’t going to turn around and get him out because Jon is the biggest threat.”
Reed said: “Absolutely not.”
Shaking his head, Jeremy simply said: “Alright.”
Asked if he would prefer not to be in this position, Jon said that it was a positive for now but these decisions were game changers and that could be scary.
His voice was partially covered again by the rolling thunder when he said that. It seemed to be telling us that Jon has reason to be scared.
For good measure, Keith turned around and spit on the floor before Jeff sent them to vote.
We saw Alec voting for Baylor saying that she couldn’t hang out with the big boys. Baylor’s vote was the only other one revealed and she explained: “You are a strong player but I stopped trusting you the first tribal when you wrote my name down and didn’t tell me.”
By a vote of 6 to 5, Josh became the first member of the jury.
Jeff sent them back to camp after asking: “Is this a line in the sand or is tomorrow a whole new game.”
The Story
The frat house behavior was strongly underlined in this episode. We saw how the guys acted stupidly during the reward and in camp. Male chauvinism even crept in the strategic discussions when we heard Alec say that Jon was riding with them so they didn’t need to touch base with Jaclyn. This is certainly not the Hilton like Keith said and Josh wasn’t directly responsible for this behavior but it still does fit in a story where the women come out on top to show these guys that they cannot be taken for granted.
The Characters
Three Different Pigs: (Ha ha, charade you are)
Wes: Before Tribal Council, Wes was just a dumb kid but he wasn’t bad like his father said. Then, with one answer to Jeff, we saw that he is a bad player. “The alliances are known” he said. “Reed, Josh, Alec and myself have aligned with dad and the others know that we are tight.” He may as well have told Jon and Jaclyn that they were getting 6th and 7th place by going with them. Alec’s inclusion in the alliance completely undermined Reed’s plea that the couples had to stick together. It didn’t make much a difference for Jon and Jaclyn who already knew that but, to the older viewers, it had to remind them of Jerri’s dumb remark during the Outback’s 3rd TC.
Alec: Isn’t he just like the other Christy brother? He was totally shocked when Jaclyn said she makes the decisions with Jon. If I were him, I’d be careful of alligators... and voters! It can’t be too long now before his exit.
Keith: He was right when he said that they weren’t at the Hilton so that leaves him a small opening to the victory despite his rough exterior. He does have moments of wisdom but I see him mostly as the “Dumb Player” that is used to make the audience laugh. Jeremy said that he isn’t very good at it and we have to agree with Baylor that it wasn’t smart to tell the mom that you are voting the daughter. Still, that honesty tells us two things: He still hasn’t ruled out playing with Missy and people will not worry that he is lying to them. Keith is an honest man, maybe too honest for this game unless that turns out to be the message of the season. Could Jon’s qualms be the theme of the season and the road to Keith’s victory? Are they were playing the game or just being deceitful by promising different things to different people. If they are just being deceitful then there is a chance for the honest man. Would a jury reward an honest man or punish the dumb man? I think it would be suicide to let Keith anywhere near the end game because the jury would give the money to the fireman. By the way, does he have two kids?!
The Desperate Man
Reed: Can he have a future now that his partner is gone? Obviously not since Josh dominated their story. He won’t go down without a fight but his antics could very well speed up his exit.
The Gentlemen:
Jeremy: His edit is almost perfect for a winner and we saw that he is a true competitor when he didn’t showboat after his crucial immunity win. Can he win after he was so definitely saved by Julie’s quit? It could be said that it wasn’t luck, he saved himself by winning immunity but then we never saw him talk to Jon or Jaclyn to rally their votes. He wasn’t credited at all for the turn around so that is even more inauspicious for him. It’s doesn’t get better when we consider that he seems oblivious to the idols. I do believe that Jeremy is living on borrowed times. Jon had to express his worries about Jeremy to Missy before agreeing to eliminate Josh but we certainly didn’t hear their whole conversation. What if Missy promised him to target Jeremy as soon as the pigs have been slaughtered? We know that Jeremy doesn’t trust Jon and he has good reason to be worried but he doesn’t know that Jon has an idol and maybe more votes on his side.
Jon: Jaclyn said it was stupid that Jon was thinking as far ahead as the Final 3 but for us, it gave him a hook into the end game. Jon is worried that Jeremy would beat him in the Final 3 but it seems that he is forgetting that he could lose it even if Jeremy isn’t there. By staying in the middle for so long, Jon has made a lot of people angry at him. Jaclyn’s firm stance during Tribal Council also told the other players that she influences his decisions and may even be the smarter one of the pair. That will be tough to defend to a jury of players that put their trust in him. He said that his best path didn’t include Jeremy and, while we will never know how it would have turned out if he stayed with Josh, it’s very possible that he will be proven right. The rolling thunder that accompanied his interventions during Tribal Council tells us that he has the “Survivor Gods” against him!
The Women:
Jaclyn: She is a smart woman and she chose her preferred path but will it pay out in the end? If she had received the same exposure in the first few episodes as she has shown since the swap, then Jaclyn would be our front runner for the title of Sole Survivor. However, there were too many missed opportunities to portray her as a lovable underdog when she was the target of the alliance led by Rocker. Instead, the editors turned one of her TC remarks to show her as someone that almost killed the plan to get rid of the ex-pitcher. In this episode, she could have been portrayed like an even better player if her talk with Josh had been shown after the Immunity challenge. Showing it during the segment where Jon was on Exile Island made it look like she was simply going along and then acted only on emotions. When Jaclyn said it would be easier to beat Natalie, Missy and Baylor, it made me think that she could very well be wrong and lose to that trio in one of the last Tribal Councils.

Natalie: She is turning into one of the best players this season but we still hardly see her on our screen. Her intervention during tribal council was the catalyst for the vote: It enabled Jaclyn to express her frustration with the guys and it told Jon that he was still a trusted member of the original Hunahpu. That was a great argument and must have solidified the vote. She has too few confessionals and no real end game connections. Her portrayal tells us that she won’t make it in the end. What would a juror ask her right now? They wouldn’t care that she volunteered to go to Exile Island so that leaves her with very little else to discuss.
Baylor: We had another example that the cheerleader can’t own up to her game. Josh wasn’t blackmailing her; he was simply saying he had saved her so she owed him. Considering that she gets bugged easily, the jury should have a lot of fun grilling her. I envision an epic meltdown.
Missy: She expressed the audience’s thoughts about quitters and then she worked diligently to change Jon’s mind. I think we’ve had two interesting development in this episode that point us even more to a win by Missy. First, even Jaclyn seemed to have abandoned hope to rally Jon because she told us he didn’t have her back. Josh didn’t need Jaclyn’s vote because Baylor would have been eliminated if Jon had voted against her. It was only after talking to Missy that Jon changed his mind. Next, we saw firsthand how playing like mama bear can get Missy to the end. By protecting her kid, Missy advanced her own game tremendously. Did we really need to hear Keith telling Jeremy, Natalie and Missy that the group was voting against Baylor? We really didn’t because Jon’s vote would have been needed even if they didn’t know who the target was in Jeremy’s alliance. It wasn’t necessary to show that Missy had to protect her kid against such a direct threat yet the promotion department played up the scene by giving us this tease before the episode aired: “The claws are out when two parents protect their children in a heated exchange”. There was certainly more hype in that promotion than the argument deserved. The promotion department is starting to make their winner’s case. Of course, like the reference to the jury giving money to the fireman, some will argue that this is making Keith’s case instead of Missy’s, but his story is certainly not centered on protecting his child.

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Callandor 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
11-18-14, 03:01 PM (EST)

78. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

LAST EDITED ON 11-18-14 AT 03:14 PM (EST)
LAST EDITED ON 11-18-14 AT 03:11 PM (EST)
Thanks Michel. Some interesting insights.
Some brief thoughts:
I feel that Jaclyn's (clearly spliced and edited) comment "Jon and I have to decide which way to go........ Jon’s thinking really far ahead which is stupid but now, I feel that there is this all up in the air with everything.” is key to understanding this season.
In my opinion it summarized the two styles of play - one being the long-term, inflexible "stick to the plan" approach and one being the "day to day....don't think too far ahead but take your opportunities as they present themselves" approach. I believe that the editors are telling us that the latter is the style of play that will win this season.
So in looking to identify our winner, flexibility and the ability to adapt the plan to changing circumstances (even on a daily basis) will be key.
I certainly think that Missy could be our winner. She is one of my top two contenders. But if I am to assume that making situational decisions well and frequently is key to winning this game, then there are two people who stand out as contenders, our "power couple" "swing votes" Jon and Jaclyn.
And as Jon has already been called out by his girlfriend as stupid this leaves Jaclyn strongly positioned to be named our Sole Survivor.
One caveat. Jaclyn has made more than one reference to Baylor playing both sides. I initially assumed that Baylor would end up betraying her, which could still end up being the case. However, another interpretation could be that ironically the girl that Jaclyn didn't trust ends up facing her in the Final Tribal Council.
You have also made the very valid comment that Jaclyn's underexposure in the first three episodes, despite going to Tribal Council each time, counts against her. However, what if the editors are doing something similar to what they did with Tina Wesson's edit in the second season of Survivor - the "dog that didn't bark" edit that was completely the opposite of Richard Hatch. Tony was such an in-your-face dominant personality and was edited accordingly from the start. Perhaps the winner of Survivor San Juan del Sur will be hidden from the start and slowly be revealed over the course of the season. A question?
I wait for the next episode with interest.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-18-14, 05:59 PM (EST)

81. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

Welcome aboard, Callandor and thank you very much.
I like your point of view but I will point out a few problems for Jaclyn's case: Jon told us she was playing too emotionally so that's not very good for someone who wants to analyze the situation carefully day by day. Also Jiffy told us a long time ago that he didn't like the idea of hiding Tina in the first episode so I doubt he'd use that type of edit now that he is in charge. Granted, Natalie was almost completely ignored for the first three episodes of Samoa but she had to go up against the show's biggest camera hog ever in Hantz.

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
11-18-14, 03:07 PM (EST)

79. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

Enjoyed your take on the episode Michel, I may not comment every time but I love this thread and read it every week!
Or maybe Reed and Josh talked about it before and decided to stay apart to have ears on both sides. That would be very smart but we didn’t hear about it since these two players won’t matter in the end.
Josh confirmed this in his interview on Survivor Live with Jeff Schroeder. And you're right, it didn't matter.
If anything, he should have picked Missy (or encouraged the one making the pick if it wasn’t him) instead of Natalie in order to separate the mom from her daughter.
He said in his interview that he knew Baylor was a lost cause early on, I believe the phrase he used to illustrate this was something about Missy getting her claws into Baylor. At some point he decided that what he did would make no difference, again it just didn't matter by then.
I did enjoy Josh's interview much more then the other bootee's, he did know the game and apparently it placed a nice target on him.
I can only give him some words of wisdom, that’s all I can do.”
And that's all Keith can do. Game over for him. I don't think he can give anyone words of wisdom including himself. That HII may save him at some point but wisdom won't do it.
I do find that comparing Missy and Keith as parents puts Missy in a much better light. Missy is telling Baylor as well as making sure she follows up on her advice. Keith tells Wes what to do and that's all the effort he puts into it. Wes is coming off as a boob while Baylor's edit is much more positive and by association Missy's is as well.
Keith's "Everyone has gas!" comment. I'm sure the way to sway a lady is to even imply that she has gas. Not a good move Keith.
to the older viewers, it had to remind them of Jerri’s dumb remark during the Outback’s 3rd TC.
Who are you calling old? >snort< What did Jerri say and how the heck do you remember that? You're a little scary Michel, you know that?

I should be watched....closely.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-18-14, 05:51 PM (EST)

80. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

Thank you for the information from Josh's interview.
Jerri told Jiffy Probe that her friends on the tribe were Amber, Mitchell and Colby. That left out Maralyn who was about to be voted out, Tina and Keith. In the next episode, Tina turned the table on Jerri and got Mitchell voted out.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-18-14, 09:03 PM (EST)

82. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

In the intro, But, it was Josh that convinced them to blindside Jeremy....fortunately for Jeremy, Julie made a shocking decision to quit the game....someone just got a million dollar break...11 left. I looked at that as very positive for Jeremy....he got a MILLION DOLLAR break....but it presents the new conflict for this episode, will he or won’t he get another?
While we know that Jon is telling Jeremy that he is with him, we know that he is not...Nobody knows where we stand right now, this move is a big move, Jeremy is a leader of the pack. Jaclyn has a counterpoint pointing out that Josh is the leader of the pack too. Then Jon continued, Jeremy is going to go home very, very soon, he has no clue that Jack and I flipped. I need to figure out what my best path is, and my best path does NOT include Jeremy. Jon makes his thoughts clear, that Jeremy is not a part of his plan.
I looked at this confessional in a positive light. Shows that Jon is playing the game, I felt that he posed the question more to Jaclyn, are they playing or just choosing to be deceitful...clearly it could have been a light bulb moment....YES, we ARE playing the game. Here is what michel thought...I found it interesting that Jon kept using the words “right now” considering that he switches his mind every time someone new talks to him.
YOu make a sound point, but when you think about what Jiffy knows regarding the winner and his statement, The best players will prove themselves through their ability to play this game not based on history, but on what is in front of them in any given moment.
To me, this is what Jon keeps hitting us over the head with each and every week. That they have to carefully consider everything and choose the best path not based on previous association but instead on what presents at the moment.
Michel asks, We can also wonder where Missy fit in his plans since we only heard him say he was going after Jeremy. Was he thinking that he could boot Jeremy but stay with Missy?
I also have to wonder where Missy and Jon fit in together. To me, it almost as if he’s playing more with Missy, who is not seen or heard as much, than he is with Jaclyn. I cannot help but think that Missy and Jon see eye to eye in regard to Jeremy, but I don’t know?
Michel continued: As for Jeremy, I found it troubling that he was shown completely relaxed when Jon was talking of booting him. It made me think that, despite the irony of Josh’s recap confessional and the outcome of this episode, Jeremy is living on borrowed times. Both big rivals could be proven wrong before long.
I agree, I feel as though Jeremy is living on borrowed time. Will it be sooner rather than later, or no?
Then we cut to the reward challenge and Yellow team wins. Josh in Survivor Live spilled how they were picked. He said that he and Josh said earlier if it was a team vs. team reward challenge, he and Reed planned to be on opposite sides. Reed and Baylor were the captains. Reed first chose Jeremy, Baylor first chose Josh, then on Reed’s team the order went, Wes, then Keith, then Natalie, and Baylor’s side went first to Josh, then Jon, then Alec, then Jaclyn.
The winners choose Jon to go to EI, because they worry that Missy couldn’t handle it, funny how they dismiss her, they may kick themselves for this later...can’t dismiss anyone at there at this point! They choose Jon instead. He blows a kiss to Jaclyn on the way out.
Cut to the winners at the taco bar, fun with Keith and Wes. Jeremy challenges Keith statement in conf that they wouldn’t have known who to vote for...let’s us know that Jeremy knows exactly where he stands with them. Then we cut to Jon on EI.
Jon finds the idol, and I thought this was a curious statement regarding the find...she is a beauty, that's a game changer, exciting to have this, because whatever I want to happen in the game, will happen. Is this foreshadowing a straight path to the end, or is this arrogance setting up a nice blindside? Time will tell. I do love that you think this idol will play a role in Jon’s game however! Regarding Jeremy, it was Julie that told us she would stand guard while Natalie and Jeremy looked for it....and not only with his clue, but with the clue Natalie got from Baylor when they were both on....
Then we have the gross guys at camp, and a nice confessional from Jeremy recognizing their immature behavior...but still he calls them out as “pigs”....Jeremy talks down about everyone he seems to play with, and I don’t think the winner would be quite that blatant?
Then we have the Baylor and Alec trash scene, and Momma Missy’s advice, to let it go....then Keith’s badgering her to go get some firewood along with the comment if she were his kid she would alread have been whooped 7 times. And, he tells this to Missy.
Next is a confessional from Jaclyn about how they should be nice to her if they want her vote....this is a bad sign for me with Jaclyn. She’s playing emotionally...she should see that any one of these “pigs” could indeed be a nice little goat for her in the end...but, it’s all about her. Then she tells Nat and Bay....Jon can vote with them, but I am not....she’s throwing Jon under the bus...so....this tells me that she is being open with Baylor and Missy, and telling them that indeed they are being approached by the other side as well, and that Jon is considering going with the “pigs”....of course Jeremy should be wary of Jon...I think Jaclyn is not the smarter of the two, and especially in TC...fwiw.
Alec then has the confessional that he is sure that Jon is with them...Jon is riding with the boys, he trusts me.... Clearly Alec is looking more and more like an endgame goat...or, at least someone has got to recognize him as such? He really is clueless on how to play his game, imo.
Jiffy had a comment regarding Jon, the first one out of the IC....something about the effects of being isolated on EI for 2 days...I thought it was wise for Jon to get out early, and it did cross my mind that he may have thrown it....it takes him off the radar. Josh and Jeremy, the two who needed it most were indeed the last two at the end...Jiffy had to love that. Jeremy won, and Josh was sunken. Interesting that right before Josh and Jeremy were left, it was Missy and Keith at the end....if you get rid of the big dogs, Josh and Jeremy, will it be Missy and Keith battling to the end? It crossed my mind.
When they returned back to the beach, Jon gave us a confessional that let us know about the change in Jaclyn’s plans....I thought he was very articulate in the confessional and he assessed things as I did, that Jaclyn is playing emotionally...I mean, this is the love of my life talking however, this is a game and you can’t be acting just on emotions.
Then later after Reed approached them and told them the new target was Baylor, Jaclyn had a confessional about having to decide which way to go and that she thought Jon would have her back...it ended with So, Jon’s thinking really far ahead which is stupid but now, I feel that there is this all up in the air with everything.”
How ironic for Jaclyn if it indeed pans out, or will Jaclyn be proved right?
Before TC there was some doubt as to which way Jon would vote....he implied to the guys that he was with them voting Baylor, then we see Jeremy not trusting Jon, then we have Jaclyn’s confessional about how Jon doesn’t seem to care, but she is more comfortable with Missy and Jeremy, in the end there are people that will be mad and somebody’s not going to be happy...Cut to TC...
During TC is was outed that Jon and Jaclyn were the couple in the middle again, for me, it was almost as if Jaclyn were whining that everybody goes to Jon, and what about me...Jon went to exile and nobody came to me...blah, blah....she strikes me as a very dumb player. She outs way too much at TC for me...
Then the final part of TC...
Jeremy interrupted him, saying: “So you guys aren’t going to turn around and get him out because Jon is the biggest threat.” Reed said: “Absolutely not.” Shaking his head, Jeremy simply said: “Alright.” Asked if he would prefer not to be in this position, Jon said that it was a positive for now but these decisions were game changers and that could be scary.
Jeremy calling out Reed and company that they would then proceed to get Jon out as the biggest threat....I can’t help but think Jeremy just verbalized his intentions to the entire TC...I think it’s a good thing that I think Missy and Jon are closer than Missy and Jeremy...
I think Jon is far more eloquent in his statements in confessionals and at TC...just my perception, I guess.
When Baylor voted for Josh and called him out for the first TC, I knew that would come back to bite him...going full circle.
Regarding the thunder claps...are the survivor gods against him, or is what he is saying significant to this story? While Jon does appear goofy and happy go lucky, I am not ready to dismiss him in the end game, as some of the other players seem to be. I also feel good that Missy will be there too, and perhaps Keith. But, at this point the goat will probably be Baylor. Right now, I am paying more and more attention to Natalie. I wouldn’t be surprised if a women won this season, but can she win with all the “chauvanist pigs” on the jury? I sure could see them calling for a man to win...it’s crossed my mind that if there is one man in it at the end, will they win because he’s a man? So many things to consider...thanks Michel! Loved hearing it, as always!

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-18-14, 10:11 PM (EST)

83. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

LAST EDITED ON 11-19-14 AT 07:40 PM (EST)
Great to read what you have to say, FP.
I heard that Josh said Baylor went first and picked Jon. Reed went with Jeremy, Bay picked Josh, Reed went for Wes, Bay picked Alec, Reed went for Natalie leaving Baylor to take Jac and keeping Keith for last.
I heard Keith say that he'd feel bad sending Missy to Exile and took it to mean he,d feel that way because she didn't play in the challenge, not that she couldn't handle it.
"Interesting that right before Josh and Jeremy were left, it was Missy and Keith at the end....if you get rid of the big dogs, Josh and Jeremy, will it be Missy and Keith battling to the end? It crossed my mind."
Very interesting indeed.
It's also interesting that we disagree on which of Jon and Jaclyn is the smarter one. I guess I still hear Jeremy calling him a cartoon character.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-19-14, 03:03 PM (EST)

85. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

Michel: I watched the Survivor Live interview between Jeff and Josh, and he told them exactly how they were divided...I made notes, but has soon as I transcribe the gist of it into the thread, I pitch the notes....you could be right...I just recall that they had decided ahead of time that they would not be on the same teams, and that Reed first got Jeremy, I was thinking that Baylor chose Josh first...IDK?
You could also be right on Keith not choosing Missy because she didn't participate in the challenge, lol!

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Sheldor 4681 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-21-14, 04:25 PM (EST)

88. "RE: Episode 8 - A Bunch of Pigs"

michel wrote: The press images gave us a hint that Reed and Baylor were the team captains so let’s see if we can figure out the picking order. Jon had to be the first overall pick so that means Baylor held the first draft choice. That would mean Reed picked Jeremy, the next strongest man with his first pick. Baylor’s next two picks would have been Alec and Josh leaving Reed to counter with Wes and Keith. That would mean that Jaclyn was the first woman picked followed by Natalie. If it did go that way then the players went for strength before allies or Loved Ones. Or maybe Reed and Josh talked about it before and decided to stay apart to have ears on both sides. That would be very smart but we didn’t hear about it since these two players won’t matter in the end.
From Survivor Live interview of Josh:
Baylor and Reed were indeed the team captains and yes, Baylor picked first.
Baylor -> Jon
Reed -> Jeremy
Baylor -> Josh
Reed -> Wes
Baylor -> Alec
Reed -> Natalie
Baylor -> Jaclyn
Reed -> Keith
Missy not picked

And yes, Reed and Josh decided before the Reward to NOT pick each other so they would be on different teams.

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
11-18-14, 11:08 PM (EST)

84. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

LAST EDITED ON 11-21-14 AT 02:41 AM (EST)
Our host has a very robust ego. And he is on record ... and record ... and record ... that he would never have considered this Season's winner as its winner at the outset of San Juan del Sur's filming.
So, I doubt that he presided over edits that would ultimately make him appear to be less than impressively wise in the ways of Survivor.
And that, I think, would mean that - at F10 - the pared list of contenders would consist of Natalie, Jaclyn, Alec, Wes and (perhaps) Keith.
In other words, given their edits to date - and their résumés - I don't think that JP would want to appear to suggest that he ever felt that Missy, Baylor, Jon, Jeremy and Reed weren't made of the right stuff.
But, I also think that it is about time for Mr. Probst's editors to begin letting his viewers in on the joke.
ETA: What I'm trying to say - badly - is that I think that this winner's edit was designed to confirm for the viewers - not that the Sole Survivor deserved the title - but that Jeff Probst's 'initial' belief that he or she could not | would not | should not win the Game was prudent and predictably brilliant.
G

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-19-14, 07:44 PM (EST)

86. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Thank you, Georgianna, I'll use that if Missy doesn't win!
However, I think the casual viewers were only seeing Jeremy, Josh and Jon as likely winners so anyone besides them would justify Jiffy's claim.

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
11-21-14, 02:42 AM (EST)

87. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

I'll use that if Missy doesn't win!
I'll remind you ...
G

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Sheldor 4681 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-21-14, 04:32 PM (EST)

89. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

Georgana wrote: Our host has a very robust ego. And he is on record ... and record ... and record ... that he would never have considered this Season's winner as its winner at the outset of San Juan del Sur's filming.
For reference, here is what Jeff said in his TV Guide pre-season interview:
http://www.tvguide.com/news/jeff-probst-survivor-san-juan-sur-blood-water-john-rocker-1087474.aspx
And, according to Probst, it's one of the most unpredictable seasons in Survivor history.
"This is a very unorthodox season," Probst says. "Some seasons just roll along and you can almost predict it. This season, I couldn't have predicted the way it was going to go. I would have never predicted who was going to win or be in at the end. And I hope that's the same journey that the audience has. Just so many weird things happen. Tribes have issues that they have to deal with me about, and they're losing things and wanting to trade for things and running out of things. It was just a constant, daily, 'What? What happened now?' I think there are a lot of things we haven't seen in a while, and I think the audience is going to enjoy it. I think it's going to feel refreshing and different."

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
11-22-14, 01:31 AM (EST)

91. "RE: Survivor 29: The Characters and their Stories"

A lot of this stuff he's saying is about the pre-merge stuff with the whole running out of rice and trading for flint. Other than that he couldn't predict who would be at the end because it was thought to be Jeremy or Josh. However while he couldn't predict who would win, it doesn't mean his gut was not right. Jon looks like the winner but has to deal with backlash of it and probably idol pimps his way to the end.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
11-22-14, 01:19 AM (EST)

90. "Disappointed"

I'm honestly disappointed with the editing this season. If Jon was going to win they should have at least shown him the first episode more. Here's the problem, he does not command the screen like Russell, Rob, Tyson, Tony do. He's not that guy yet he's being shown as this power player but really he isn't likable to the viewers and if he won, he would not be a well accepted winner either. People on FORT do not like him, people on Sucks do not like him. He would be the first alpha male under 30 since JT in 09 to win.
Anyways I'm picking up on shady editing at the moment, players that are getting dark edits where they become instant targets and. Keith's was two episodes ago, Reed was this past episode, and Natalie I feel is getting one coming up. Therefore I feel they are the next three to go. Alec did have it last week but Keith's rant about Baylor and his accent and his age put him above him as a target.
9.Natalie(also was aligned with Jeremy)
8.Reed(once Nat goes Reed is not needed)
7.Keith(time's up he's the first of the country boys to go)
Then you have the two blahs in Wes and Jaclyn. Alec's gotten not enough airtime but when he does it seems he's getting edits where he's noticed. Negative or not, he hasn't though been shown other than the Baylor incident to constantly go on about broken alliances like Keith or game too hard like Reed and Nat. We know Jaclyn is supposed to be gone before family visit if that person was telling the truth about her grand dad. I can see Alec and Wes getting with Baylor and Missy to get Jaclyn out. But after that Jon will likely have immunity or still have his idol and he gets to decide which side to take. He will think Missy and Baylor are the goats and Alec and Wes have friends on the jury.
6.Jaclyn
5.Wes
Then we have final four and it's almost predictable. Jon's sitting pretty with a immunity win and taking two goats(in his eyes) to the F3. This is where, like last season, I think the family visit will be. Jon or Alec stand the best chances at winning this last immunity and Baylor and Missy know they don't have to do anything to win because they are safe. I'm going to say Jon wins final immunity and Alec goes.
Then you have the jury. Baylor's biggest fan on sucks thinks Baylor is going to the end with a strong chance of winning. But Baylor has done nothing but helped Jon and her mother all game. Missy had a good social game, got along with everyone and will certainly get Keith's vote, and may as well get Wes's as well.
Josh......a gamer so you'd think he would vote for a gamer. He will vote for Jon.
Jeremy....he got betrayed by Jon but does that consititue respect. Missy was a bigger ally of his and she did what Jon told her. Does that hurt Missy? Does Jeremy reward the instigator or the go-along? I feel he will vote for Jon.
Natalie...She will not vote Jon I don't think, she votes Missy.
Reed......Like Josh, he's voting for the one who played him. Jon.
Keith.....Easily Missy.
Jaclyn....Of course Jon.
As you see Jon has four votes and Missy has two.
Wes.......Missy like his dad.
Alec......Alec can vote with his closest ally Wes or vote for Jon. I think Alec is the swing vote in deciding to vote for the winner or force a tie. Could we have a first tie for the win? He would vote Missy because a vote for Baylor will mean nothing and because of Keith and Wes. But he could give Jon the money.
So either Jon wins or a tie happens and some tiebreaker decides it. If the fans vote, Missy is more unpopular enough for Jon to win. If its a challenege Jon probably wins whatever they throw at him. Only way Missy wins a tie is if Baylor gets to decide and that's way too easy. I think the tiebreaker will be based on challenge wins and that goes to Jon if it comes down to that.
So there you have it Jon wins and once the season is over people will remember how hated this season was.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-22-14, 04:20 AM (EST)

92. "!!"

people on Sucks do not like him
That is the funniest thing I've read in a long time. Thank you for that!

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-22-14, 06:27 PM (EST)

93. "Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

Previously on Survivor, we saw the power alliance that was formed when Josh recruited Jaclyn and Jon (we hear that Josh is very confident that he has the numbers) ... and they were targeting Jeremy.
But when Jon was sent to Exile Island, Jaclyn’s new alliance showed their true colors. (The editors used a short cut to make it look like Alec was talking to Jaclyn instead of Baylor)
At Exile Island, Jon found a hidden immunity idol and, at the immunity challenge, Jeremy won security of his own. (Jeremy is shown, happy to have foiled Josh and his goons’ plan)
Facing Tribal Council Jon and Jaclyn were second guessing their new alliance and it came to bite Josh and his alliance when Jon and Jaclyn flipped.
We saw Jon winking at Jaclyn.
In this summary, Alec looked even worse than in the last episode. The scene where he was bugging Baylor was cut in such a way that it looked like he was addressing Jaclyn directly. It was as if he was the only reason why Jaclyn didn’t want to work with the guys anymore. On the other hand, Jeff’s recap completely ignored Keith and Wes’ responsibility in the mess. This tells us to keep an eye on the father and son team. Keith’s story in particular merits our attention.

It’s Part of the Game
Huyopa – Night 21
The music was like a long lament while we were shown the Tribal flag, the camera practically focusing on Josh and Reed’s name.
I think this choice of music and the camera’s focus on Josh’s name painted on the flag is a tip of the cap to Josh, a good player. It could also be a sign that Jon and Jaclyn made the wrong decision; that Josh’s elimination will not work out for them in the end.
The tribe agreed that the council had been intense and we saw Missy hugging Jon and then all the women hugged.
Like the Colby/Tina alliance was key in understanding the story that came out of The Outback, I see the Jon/Missy alliance as the key to this season. Between the two couples we have a mixture of Blood and Water alliances.
Reed had a confessional: “I am furious that Josh is gone. Our game together has now officially come to an end. So, I’m not exactly sure who to turn to just yet but, right now, all I have to do is worry about me now. I need to figure out how to move forward being in the minority.”
For this episode, Reed will be successful but let’s not get carried away by his developing story arc. We have to keep in mind that the post-merge episodes are always designed to create distractions, players that suddenly appear to have great potential. The winner’s story is constructed carefully over the course of the whole season and it’s evident that Reed hasn’t received that patient construction before this episode.

Jon asked Jaclyn and Missy if everyone hated him. He felt bad because he really led Josh on. Missy told him that it was just part of the game. Baylor came in and hugged him, saying: “The big brother that I never had.”
Jon in confessional: “The thing that pushed me over the edge to join the alliance with Jeremy was when Jaclyn felt disrespected by everybody in Josh and Reed’s alliance. I wasn’t sure why but my instincts were telling me that it wasn’t the right thing to do. If there is anything that I learned watching past Survivor it’s trust your instincts.”
Keith joined the conversation, saying: “You two jump ship quick. Jon has been lying to me for 18 days. Missy has probably been lying to me for 17 days.”
Jon replied that they were never lined up while Missy said that it was part of the game.
Keith in confessional: “It didn’t go our way tonight. Jon and Jaclyn flipped over there again with them and we’re in a bad place. They can pick us off one at a time. I have the idol and the thing with that is playing it at the right time to maybe get one of them out. Maybe I can tell them to vote me off, they all put my name down and I play the idol. I’ve had it with Jon, I’ve had it with Missy so it might not be a bad idea because it’s getting to crunch time now.”
That confessional was presented in two parts. In the middle of it, we heard Keith blaming Missy for not staying with the couples.
This is the one piece of evidence that plays in Keith’s favor: After the last vote, we knew that the focus at the start of the episode would be on Reed and Jon. We really didn’t need to hear from Keith at all at this point yet he not only intervened, he gave us a great reason why he could win over Jon and Missy. They are liars while he is an honest man. The question becomes: Is lying part of the game? Before you say that it obviously is, remember that it would be a great story for the often outwitted but honest man to make an amazing come back and take the title. I mean, the guy was even outwitted by a piece of flint yet he still has one of the best stories out there. It may have been designed only for its entertainment value but it could hold the moral of the story.
The Reward Challenge – Keith! Keith! Keith!
The Blue team had Wes, Missy, Jon, Jaclyn and Keith. They were facing off against Alec, Baylor, Reed, Jeremy and Natalie.
When Wes went up against Reed, we heard Jon’s encouragements: “Wes, think of food... my first freakin’ meal since the merge.” Despite that, Reed won the point.
Even if she had a longer reach, Jaclyn lost to Natalie.
Jon lunged at Jeremy and threw him in the mud, scoring his team’s first point.
When Missy faced Baylor, Jeff reminded us that the daughter defeated her mom the last time. Missy went for it but missed and wound up in the mud.
When Keith tricked Alec, pretending to relax just before giving him a push, we heard a chorus of Keith! Keith! Keith! Keith! from his team.
After slapping some mud in Reed’s eye, Wes won their rematch.
In a second rematch, Jaclyn tried to give a hard push to Natalie who didn’t budge. The reaction sent Jaclyn into the mud.
When Jon faced Jeremy for the second time, Jaclyn reminded him of the sandwiches. That was all Jon needed to defeat Jeremy.
It came down to Missy and Baylor, which was very fitting in Blood versus Water according to Jeff. Jeff asked: “Does mom have anything left in that tank?” Jeff told us that Missy went for it but she fell in so Baylor won the reward for her team. Keith went to help Missy out of the pool of mud.
The fulcrum of the season was presented in this challenge: On one side, many viewers had been saying that Missy would give in to her daughter, would sacrifice her game for her. Here however, we saw that Missy will not hesitate to go for the win. Now, some will still argue that she will fail in the game just like she did in the challenge but the outcome of the challenge wasn’t something that could be manipulated. Only Jeff’s words were and he told us that she went for it.

On the other side, we heard everyone cheering for Keith as if that’s what the audience should do also. Granted, Jon and the others were mostly thinking of sandwiches when Keith surprised Alec but I’d expect the jury to cheer much in the same way if Keith makes his way to the end against other “goons”.
Besides those two aspects of the story, I also enjoyed seeing Keith helping Missy out of the mud. It could simply have been a courteous gesture but I think it tells us that there is something going on between those two. A secret affair perhaps? No, not that kind of affair but it’s possible that Honest Keith isn’t telling us everything that is going on. Someone will be telling him to vote against Reed and we know that Missy will be thinking of splitting the votes to include Reed’s name on the parchments.
Natalie asked Jeff if she could trade positions. Jeff replied: “You can give up your reward.” So Natalie gave the yacht trip and the food to Jon. Jeremy immediately jumped in, giving his place to Jaclyn. The Michigan couple could hardly believe it. Jeff admiringly said that it was a “crazy trade”. Jon said he was holding back tears. Natalie explained that she had been nervous at Tribal Council so she wanted to reward their loyalty by showing love and respect.
The five agreed on sending Jeremy to Exile. Jeff could hardly believe it: “Two minutes ago he was on a yacht.”
Baylor, who had voiced the team’s decision, explained in confessional: “We chose Jeremy to go to Exile just because I’m positive there is an idol on Exile and it would be better for our alliance to find it.”
There was an obvious change in voice tone before the last part of Baylor’s comment so we know her words were spliced together. Maybe the cut was done only to save time but it’s possible that Baylor mentioned an ulterior motive in sending Jeremy and we weren’t meant to hear it. I suspect she said she’d like to see her mom find the idol but that she didn’t think her mom would handle exile well. If so, cutting her sentence protects Missy’s credibility as a survivalist. As is, the alliance’s possession of the idol is all that mattered.
Huyopa
The Howler monkey greeted Natalie, Missy, Keith and Wes back in camp.
Natalie in confessional: “We got the “W” but I decided to give up my spot to Jon.” Missy was heard at this point: “Jon needs food.” Natalie’s confessional continued: “I just wanted to do this so he knew that I appreciated him siding with us at Tribal but also to make sure that, moving forward, I could always count on Jaclyn and Jon to trust me and Jeremy. This is going to be leverage for me down the road.”
If Survivor was a fair game, maybe it would have worked out like Natalie hoped but it’s an evil game as Jeremy found out. The game now depends on Natalie’s reaction after a vote that really shocked her.
Keith told Natalie that Jon was with her for life since he was almost crying when he realized he was going on reward.
Wes in confessional: “Natalie and Jeremy trading place for the reward was a big time strategic move. Jon and Jackie aren’t going to flip now. I congratulate them for it. Touché!”
Kat was cuter when she (mis)used the expression.
Wes pleaded with Natalie and Missy: “If me or him are going home, please let us know. I don’t want to be blindsided.”
Natalie replied that she wanted Reed gone. Keith assured them they would be final 6 after the move they pulled.
Keith gave us an interview: “Wesley was letting Nat know that he didn’t want to be blindsided. I don’t know if they took that hint. It was kind of a subtle hint really. That way we could get a little bit of a heads up on playing the idol or passing the idol between us two.”
Now Keith is even plunging into the subtleties of the game! What an interesting turn of events. On the other hand, if Amazon Matt could learn the game well enough to imitate Hatch during final immunity then there certainly is hope for Keith. However, Matt had Rob teaching him those subtleties so it’s really amusing to see Keith discovering them on his own.
Exile Island
Jeremy: “Jon and Jaclyn joined our alliance and I appreciate that so giving up my reward to them is the least that I could do. I came to exile because I want to find the idol so that I can protect myself and I can bring it back to my alliance and say: Look at what we have. And now everybody feels like we can trust him. So, when I make a move, they don’t expect it. But first, I need to find this idol.”
The staff of Survivor likes to torture their players because they sent the yacht right by Exile Island. Jeremy saw it and told us he really wanted that food and the beer. He would soon get a chance for all the sandwiches and drinks he wanted.
On that yacht, the group was observing dolphins that were swimming by on starboard.
Jon gave us a confessional: “...It was really cool and being able to share it with Jaclyn was incredible. It was a very good way for Jeremy and Natalie to show their gratitude. We are very thankful for it but we do have to realize that this is a social game and that was a very big play on their part.”
Reed also had an interview: “I enjoy food and I enjoy rewards but Jon and Jaclyn were not supposed to be on the reward. Natalie is just trying to ingratiate herself to everyone by going: I love you so I’m going to give up my spot for that. It makes you want to hurl because it’s so transparent. Yes, it cements Jon and Jaclyn into their alliance but, in the end, does it really mean anything? Not if I can help it because I don’t have anything to lose right now. I might have to stir up a little bit of chaos to stay in the game right now. It may end up being the last nail in my coffin but it’s a risk I am willing to take at this point.”
The first part of Reed’s confessional really made him sound jealous that he didn’t think of doing the same. I’m sure those sandwiches didn’t taste as good as they should have when he realized he missed an opportunity. It’s also funny that someone who would resort to a dirty trick to ingratiate himself to everyone would hurl when someone did something so transparent. The gall! Would he prefer that his enemies be sneaky?! Even if this episode would be great for Reed, it didn’t turn him into an endearing character.
Exile Island – Night 23
The crabs were surrounding Jeremy and the weather wasn’t helping. “I hate exile. It’s just a long night, there’s no shelter, and you are sleeping on rocks next to the fire. It’s just not fun. I stayed up most of the night and now I feel really lethargic this morning... I wanted to find the immunity idol but I didn’t find it. I am going to go check the island one more time. I climbed this all day yesterday and I couldn’t find it. The only thing I’m thinking is if Jon already found it. If Jon found it, it would be great but he should have told me he found it and I wouldn’t be out here for two days. I’m dying over here, I’m tired.”
As this image showed, this season put the good guy in a nest of crabs.
Huyopa – Day 24
Jon was talking to Jaclyn, realizing that Jeremy would suspect he had the idol. He said: “Either people are going to think he is extremely stupid and he’s trying to pull off that he couldn’t find it or they are going to think that I was lying this whole time. They know he’s not dumb.”
Jon’s confessional started in the middle of his discussion with Jaclyn: “This is one of those times when I hadn’t really considered what is going to happen when Jeremy does come back and says he can’t find the idol. My entire cover would be blown and I could be in very big trouble.”
For someone who was expecting the need for damage control, Jon looked ill-prepared when the time came.
The Immunity Challenge
Jeff noticed that Jeremy looked beat up. Jeremy told him that the bugs and the crabs were scary. Baylor and Natalie’s reaction told us that they knew what he meant. Jon looked sorry.
Jeff’s initial instructions were clear: Use only your feet so when Natalie picked up a piece that had fallen out of her basket with her hands, I was expecting either a disqualification or at least a time penalty but Jeff was silent at first. Then, when Wes and Reed also replaced some pieces by hand in their basket, we heard him say: “If a piece drops at any point, you can pick it up with your hands to put it back in the basket but you got to use your feet to do everything else.”
It made the whole thing look like he was making the rules as he went but hey! that’s part of the game! I wonder if other players that were disqualified of challenges like Rafe and Jenna fill bitter when they see just how flexible the rules can be.
Missy was moving slowly but we heard her say: “No panic. No panic.”
Keith did surprisingly well but, he met disaster on the last piece of the final row.
I really think Keith will come close but will meet disaster during the final few episodes...or will he?
Looking at the set up, it was obvious that Reed had an advantage: Nimble feet, flexibility and strong abdomens because of his dance training. However, the same athletic skills apply to cheerleaders also. Baylor won because this challenge also involved another of her skills: Sitting around, doing nothing with her hands.

Missy was really happy and led the applause.
The “kiss of death” spot for a confessional went to... JEREMY! “Exile zapped me. If I was one hundred percent then that would have made a difference. I always want to win but as long as one of our alliance members won, I’m happy how it turned out.”
I know that the person giving the confessional immediately after the immunity challenge hasn’t always gone home but when someone is about to be blindsided and that person feels as comfortable as Jeremy, it’s almost always is the way the editors start the funeral march towards Tribal Council.
Huyopa – Day 24
When the tribe arrived back in camp, we only heard a “Good job, Baylor.”
There was much less effusions than we normally hear. Jealousy again or was the joy cut out so that we wouldn’t join in?
Reed had a confessional: “I didn’t win immunity today, which I came close to. I’m a little bummed about that because I feel that was a custom made challenge for me. Now, I’m thinking that my chances of being here tomorrow are pretty slim. I may be going home tonight so I will light this camp on fire on my way out.”
By the way, whenever we say that production designed a challenge to help a specific person, we have posters write that we are making up conspiracy theories but Reed was in trouble and he even admitted that the challenge was custom made for him. It could have been a coincidence but it is amazing how often lucky coincidences happen on this show.
Reed went through Keith’s bag and his confessional continued: “So, I want to see what Keith has in his bag. I want to see what this old coot is sitting on... He’s got...directions on what to do with the immunity idol. Keith left a paper trail and it’s a big rookie mistake. Don’t leave stuff in your bag that you don’t want people to find. I always thought that I hate it when people go through people’s stuff but desperate time calls for desperate measures.”
Reed showed the paper to Jaclyn, Missy and Baylor, saying he got it by going through what he thought was Julie’s bag but it was Keith’s instead.
Missy in interview: “I know Reed is scrambling but Keith really has an idol. It’s not good at all. You know, quite frankly, it may be something that we should think about.”
Baylor also had an interview: “If what Reed is saying is true, freaking Keith, out of all people, has an idol which is baffling. I would never think that Keith would be the one to find it and be able to hide it this long. Who knows how long he’s had it? So, it’s about to get crazy.”
It’s funny that Baylor couldn’t believe that Keith had the idol because, like most of us, she probably doesn’t think that Keith is a contender for the victory. However, this is certainly another thing that makes us wonder because he is still in contention and has one of the best stories remaining. We also have to add Reed and Baylor to those who have said that Keith isn’t smart. It’s really going into overkill which always makes me question the editors’ intent. Will Keith overcome all these odds at the end of the story? One thing the viewers had to think when Baylor mentioned “Keith out of all people” is that Baylor herself would never have found it but at least Keith put in the effort.
Keith was quick to tell Wes that someone broke into his bag so that everybody knew he had the idol.
Keith had a confessional: “I mean; that is my stuff. I don’t go through your stuff so I don’t expect people to go through my stuff but different people got different values. The word might be out that Keith’s got the idol and it may come in play sooner than later.”
This is another example of “Honest Keith” having to deal with “bad” people.
Jaclyn informed Jon about the idol. He couldn’t believe his ears. Jon said that he burned his instructions.
Jon’s interview: “There’s a lot going on. It’s total mayhem right now in camp. Keith has an idol so he’s got a very good play in his pocket. It really complicates things.”
It would get even more complicated next because Jeremy was telling Natalie that Jon had an idol. He also said that Natalie was the only one he trusted: “I don’t trust nobody else.”
Jeremy had a confessional where he told us he wanted to catch Jon in a lie: “Jon is like the worst liar.”
Jeremy took out the clue he had received during his exile and asked both Natalie and Jon to tell him where they think the idol was hidden. When Jon said it meant that it was on the island, Jeremy said he looked so that he thought Jon had to have it. Jon tried to act like he didn’t have it but it was quite apparent that he was hiding something.
Jeremy’s confessional continued: “Jon has got to be lying but I have to trust him a little bit. We are all in this together, we are trying to get to the final 6 and then we will see what happens.”
Jon in confessional: “Sending Jeremy to exile was a great thing at first but I think right now that Jeremy believes I have the idol and isn’t saying that. So I need to do something and change the course of the game.”
Jon talked to Missy, saying that both he and Jaclyn trust her. He added: “I found the idol. I would like Jeremy out at this tribal or the next.” Missy realized that Jeremy would start telling people that Jon had the idol.
Missy in confessional: “I just got this information about the idol and I’m very pleased to know that Jon is super-aligned with me. But, he’s got this look in his eyes. Jon is saying that Jeremy’s a threat, Jeremy’s a threat. Now may be the time to take out Jeremy but you know, it’s interesting because I watched Jon and Jaclyn barrel through some people so far and they have no problem pissing people off. Since I’ve started this game, I have been aligned with Jeremy and Natalie from my old tribe. Jeremy and I initially were together full-fledge, so, for the first time, it’s a little bit cloudy and at the end of the day, is it like we are making the right decision? I think maybe a better way to do it is split the votes Keith and Reed, try to flush the idol and stick together six strong just because, if we rock the boat too hard, one of us is going to fall out.”
If we remember, Josh introduced a theme this season that it was good to have people come to him with their plans. Of course, it didn’t turn out so good for Josh but that’s mainly because he started scrambling at the merger. Now, Missy is the one getting people to come to her, first Reed and now Jon. Maybe she will have better luck with that great advantage than Josh had. We also have to note that Missy just told us how she would beat Jon and Jaclyn if they were to face the jury together. “Jon and Jaclyn barrel through some people and they have no problem pissing people off.” That really sounded like the final argument in her favor.
Tribal Council
When Josh entered, he only exchanged sweet smiles with Reed, giving us no indication that he was angry with anyone.
Jeff asked Jeremy about trust with the six people in his alliance.
That’s pretty much Jeff-speak for: “Can’t you see what they are about to do to you?”
Jeremy said that trust was huge. He was hoping it would last all the way to the end.
Seeing that Jeremy wasn’t catching on, Probe pressed the point, asking how he could make sure that it stayed that way.
Jeremy mentioned that he and Natalie gave their reward to Jon and Jaclyn.
Jaclyn, for once, didn’t put her foot in her mouth when she told Jiffy that it didn’t complicate the game, it just reassured them, told them they made the right decision to go with them.
Jeremy was all smiles when Jeff mentioned that he was sent to Exile Island.
Obviously tired of this discussion, Reed interrupted: “Jeff it’s not exactly selfless. It definitely serves a purpose. It cements trust, it’s: You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours. So, it’s self-serving in being selfless.”
Jeremy admitted it was true and Reed agreed with Jeff that it was a good move.
Jeremy then told Probe that he was spent after his trip to Exile Island. “It kicked my butt.”
Missy agreed, saying Jeremy looked completely fatigued. “It was a different Jeremy.”
Probe asked Missy about idols, noting that none had been played after 24 days.
Missy said there was a lot of speculation but that people were feeling comfortable. “You shouldn’t be comfortable in your skin this entire game because you have no idea. It can switch on a dime.”
Jon said he was confident that someone had one.
Natalie said it was scary that the other side could have one adding: “It’s also scary that a member of your alliance could be hiding one from you as well.”
Jaclyn went back to Keith and Wes who, contrary to Reed and Alec, had not been talking to her and Jon. She concluded: “That shows me confidence so, if I was going to take a wild guess at who has an idol, I would say either Wes or Keith because they are not really scrambling.”
Wes replied by saying he hadn’t talked to her about strategy the whole game and that she hadn’t talked to him either.
Jon pointed out that they were the ones that needed him and Jaclyn so talking may have helped.
A shouting match started which Keith tried to end by saying that he tried to talk to Jon until he sided with them.
Baylor interrupted saying that they should talk to the girls.
Keith countered that by saying: “I talk to your mom all the time.”
Baylor raised her arms saying: “I’m a girl, she’s a girl and so is Natalie.”
Keith said: “I talk to them when I pass them.”
Probe realized that was great news for Reed.
Reed said that he wanted the fight to continue because it could give him a whole new world of opportunities.
Jeff asked Jeremy about the timing of the move.
Jeremy brought it back to talking to Jaclyn when they were on the fence. He felt it was the time to show Jon that he had his back by taking care of his wife.
Natalie told Jeff that she wanted her alliance to stick to the plan. She didn’t want anything to distract them from their long term goals.
Of course, the camera went directly to Missy when Natalie said that.
It was time to vote.
We saw quite a few votes:
- Jeremy voted Keith.
- Keith voted for Reed.
- Natalie voted for Keith.
- Alec voted for Reed.
Jeff went to tally the votes and we saw Missy turning towards Keith, suggesting that Missy was hoping Keith would play his idol.
When Jeff asked if anyone wanted to play an idol, the camera stayed on Keith a little longer than it usually does. How close was Keith to playing that idol?
Of course, none of the votes shown mattered because Jon, Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor and Reed all voted against Jeremy, shocking Josh and Natalie. She immediately turned to Missy: “What the ___, Missy?”
Reed winked at Josh just as Jeremy slammed his torch in the ground in front of Jeff.
Jeff concluded the evening by saying: “Tonight’s vote is both a brutal and a beautiful example of why you should never give up. Anything can happen.”
Keith, Reed and Wes were on screen when Jeff said you shouldn’t give up.
Natalie was still shaking her head when she walked out of the council area.
The Story
Now we know why Jeff was so open when he said that Julie’s decision saved Jeremy. It really didn’t matter that they showed us that Jeremy was lucky to have survived because his survival wasn’t linked to his allies’ success. Now, the two couples will have to find a way to the end without him. Many viewers will say that they made a big mistake, that their timing was wrong because now they are 4 in a group of 9. But the story isn’t really about the two couples making it to the end; it’s about the women fighting for respect. Natalie was shocked by this vote but, like Trish last season, she has nowhere to go. Since the four women have Jon in their pocket, they still have the numbers. At the start of the season, there were eight women competing against ten men and that numbers disadvantage got worse over the first two votes. Now, the tables are starting to turn and, with the elimination of the two biggest male players, the women may soon find themselves in the majority. It was the first time since Marquesas that the two big leaders of rival alliances got eliminated in the first two votes after the merger. We should all echo Jon’s words at the end of episode 4: “Good play, girls.”
Can the remnants of Josh’s alliance take back control from the two couples? While the numbers tell us that it is quite possible, we have to keep in mind that “the Goons” don’t have the end story ties that we would have seen before this turn of events. The story that we have watched coming out of San Juan del Sur wasn’t about Wes, Alec, Reed and Keith making it to the Final 4 together. It would be very disturbing to see the Frat boys succeed even if Survivor isn’t the Hilton.
The Characters
So whodunit? Who came back from Central America with his or her name on the majority of the ballots? Let’s see if we can make a case for these players.
The Innocents: They still don’t seem to know what went on around them.¸
Alec: I have read some comments that Alec is about to emerge as the victor but he is the leading Frat boy so I simply cannot make a case for his victory. The previews for the next episode show us a Christy brother starting to get interested in making a move. While some see it as the start of his story, I see it as its end. Like Drew, Alec will come up with a plan that will deliver his torch directly to Jeff’s snuffer.
Wes: The Baba Looey to this season’s “Slow Draw McGraw”, Wes cannot win. Even if the “goons” find a way to overturn the game, Wes cannot get the votes in the end. We have seen some random confessionals interspersed throughout the season but their content is severely lacking. He is a player without a story or strategy which tells us he is headed for a dead end.
The Accomplices
Natalie: She was left out of the loop but the move wasn’t designed to end her game. Can she realize that and put her hurt feelings aside or will she react like Keith and spit on her alliance with Missy? That really will be the key to next episode. With her, Missy and Jon don’t need Reed and the “goons” anymore. Her immediate reaction after the vote wasn’t very promising but a good discussion can heel all wounds. Missy has to make Natalie realize that she got too close to Jeremy, a player that neither could beat in the end. Maybe it will be Natalie’s turn to observe that Missy and Jon barrel through people.
A case can certainly be made for Natalie because she has shown an ability to think outside the box and come up with new ideas even if they are transparently self-serving. The main problem is that her only end game connections were with Jeremy and Missy and we just saw that Missy isn’t afraid to get rid of end game threats. There just doesn’t seem to be a seat for Natalie in the Finale, no matter which way she turns. Like Jeremy, she is now on borrowed time.
Jaclyn: After looking like the smarter member of the Michigan couple, we saw that Jaclyn was a few steps behind even Jon when he realized that Jeremy’s trip to Exile Island was a source of problems for them. Recent events had slowly built a case for Jaclyn but this episode has sent her back to square one. After receiving such a nice gift, one of Jon and Jaclyn was guaranteed to have a confessional during the reward, the fact that she was ignored in favor of Jon told us that the editors were Frat boys just like Wes and Alec: They go to Jon and ignore her. That ended her chances. We had concluded this a while back: Jaclyn’s story won’t reach further than that of a supporting actress to Jon’s role.
Baylor: After winning the final point in the reward challenge and beating everyone in a very tough immunity challenge, this episode could have been the one that made us cheer for the cheerleader but both accomplishments were practically ignored. The two confessionals that aired during this episode were merely narration and during Tribal Council she reduced her role to just “one of the girls”.
The case for Baylor is simple: We feel that she makes it to the end because we have received many indications that she will have to answer for her decisions. The problem comes when we ask if she can get the votes. If Jaclyn doesn’t feel respected, it’s even worse for Baylor. Even Keith knows that the game goes through her mom. Just like during the reward, the champagne will be reserved for the adults, the young one will have to be content without the grand prize.
The Interlopers
Reed: For a player that was on the block, Reed had a very good episode but he had to resort to a dirty trick in order to find an opening in the opposing alliance. It has to be noted that none of Reed’s action mattered in the end because it was the rivalry between Jon and Jeremy that was the deciding factor. Reed got the opportunity to avenge his partner’s elimination but it came at a price: His theft will cost him Keith and Wes’ trust. He will now face a fork in the road: Go back to the “Goons” or stay with the two couples and act as the swing vote at final 5. That second option almost seems too good to ignore. The problem is that the couples won’t need a swing at 5 because they are better off together at the Final 4.
The case for Reed has to include the fact that we heard he had caused drama earlier on. Even before Drew was eliminated, we heard that Reed had an affinity for chaos. The fact that we didn’t see any of his early antics could be considered a good sign. Instead of seeing him as a jerk, we saw him as someone scrambling to save himself. Were those antics really cut to make him more palatable or simply because they didn’t matter? Another thing to consider is that we heard that Josh and Reed had come up with the idea to be on different teams during challenges in order to be present on all the discussions. That’s a very good tactic. So good in fact that it would have been presented if Reed mattered. Just like we saw during the pre-merge, he doesn’t.
Keith: If I am wrong and Missy isn’t our Sole Survivor, then it will have to be because Keith found a way to the end. There are many scenes that make me say he won’t be our winner but nearly all of those are balanced by moments where it seems he is destined to make it to the end. Honest Keith would make for a much better representative than Jon and Missy who have been lying for weeks. We even see that the man who needs time to figure things out is starting to understand the subtleties of the game. He now looks like the only fireman who could get the million. But I will stay on course and say that Survivor is an evil game, that lying is part of the game and that Keith’s amusing story is nothing more than that. Survivor may not be the Hilton but there is still a need for respect, something Keith lacked in dealing with Baylor in particular.
The Main Suspects
Jon: Once more, we saw that Jon made a mistake, took a while to realize its significance and then made a big move to correct the situation. His obvious inability to reassure Jeremy about then idol told us that he should have been honest with the fireman. Just like he did with Missy, he could have come clean with Jeremy and they would have enjoyed smooth sailing to the Final 6. Would that have been a better path for Jon? He has faced more crossroads than most players in Survivor history so he will have a ton of “what ifs” to consider when this is all said and done.
Just the fact that the audience has been down the circuitous path along with Jon, being privy to all of his decisions, is a great case for him. Jon may not exactly know how to get to the end but he is still alive and fighting. We have heard about Jon’s personal story and he is given all the airtime needed to expose his strategy to the audience. That is usually reserved to the winners. However, the haphazard way that his thoughts are presented isn’t a good sign. We have seen too many hesitations and too many reasons why the others will hate him in the end.
Missy: As I showed when I chose the title that I thought represented the theme of this particular episode, I think that Missy’s actions are part of the game. Keith, like Dale before him, may be upset by her actions but this is Survivor so I think we are being shown the deviousness needed to play this game while keeping the others’ respect. Even after all she’s done to him, Keith still talks to Missy and was even quick to help her out of the mud pool after the loss. Missy’s last confessional of the evening told us how she will win: She will keep Jon wrapped around her finger and she will get more votes than him because he doesn’t have a problem with pissing off the others.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
11-23-14, 00:12 AM (EST)

94. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

LAST EDITED ON 11-23-14 AT 00:13 AM (EST)
I think you nailed it a couple of weeks ago with Missy. I was concerned at the merge that she might get the villain edit... But considering how Baylor has disappeared and they've softened Missy's edit just a little, and I think she's our winner.
Jon is obviously the alternative pick, of course, but it's probably Missy. If Jon ends up winning, we'll have to look back at the Episode 1 confessional about his dad as the big clue.
I kind of like how weird the edit has been this year. Making such a big deal about Josh and Jeremy, and then getting rid of both of them back-to-back... Is pretty unusual. They even did the "Hey maybe we should vote out Jeremy?" scene at the very end of the last episode, the point where they always put the fake-out alt boot. They're getting more clever lately.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-14, 06:49 PM (EST)

97. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

Thank you Jims. This is the stretch where I always wonder if I nailed it or if I'm backing the wrong horse again so it's nice to read some support. It really doesn't matter but I like to figure out whodunit before the end!
I read BR saying that he thinks Natalie has a Sandra-like winning edit so that makes me look at things differently. I'll keep an eye on her.
I much prefer this type of edit than the hide-in-plain-sight Tony but they have to work with what they have don't they?

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
11-27-14, 04:10 PM (EST)

102. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

Yeah, I see Natalie as the only possible contender for Sole Survivor beside Missy. I've seen people talking up Keith but I just cannot see it with the way he's been edited - we haven't been shown what kind of connections he's made and he's been portrayed as a dumb player quite often (flapping his mouth in last night's TC to really mess things up, for one, and having others have to explain how things work to him in camp).
I also see a number of people pushing Jon, but for some reason, I just can't see it either.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-26-14, 04:39 PM (EST)

95. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

ACKKKKKK! Ran out of time this week but I will try to point out a few things... The intro told us: After Josh recruited Jac and Jon there was a new power alliance, and they were targeting Jeremy. But, when Jon was sent to EI, their new alliance showed their true colors. At Exile Island, Jon found a hidden II, and at the IC, Jeremy won an immunity idol of his own. Jac and Jon were second guessing their alliance, and it came back to bite Josh's alliance when Jon and Jac flipped...Josh, bring me your torch...who will be voted out tonight? 10 left
We get a scene of the majority hugging, and we hear how bad Jon feels....then Reed has a confessional telling us he has to figure out how to move forward in the minority....he tells us he's still with the minority. Then Jon has a good confessional that led to the "right decision"...it really pushed me over the edge was when Jaclyn felt like she was being disrespected by everyone, and my instincts were telling me that that was not the right thing to do...if I have learned one thing from all my years of watching Survivor, it's trust your instincts....
I always think that it's a very positive sign when a major player gives us rationale for an action that seemingly works out for them....this confessional tells us that Jon has paid attention to many years of Survivor.
I agree that Keith's confessional was meaty as well, nodding to Jon and Jac, fed up with Jon, fed up with Missy, maybe next time he can get a heads up and play his idol on one of them....we keep thinking back to give him a few days and he will figure it out. Keith is not quite a player yet, but he could be by the end of this!
From the RC, I took notice of this:
Jiffy: Does mom have anything left in that tank? Missy just looking for that opportunity...Missy loses and daughter defeats mom, yellow wins reward...Keith helps her up...
We all like to see if there is hidden innuendo in Jiffy's statements during challenges...I do think that Missy, Baylor, and Keith could all be there at the end....Will Missy defer to Baylor or be defeated by her in the end...Baylor has now knocked her off in the sumo challenge and knocked her off balance in this challenge. (And, we know that she will later win the IC). Also, I loved that it's Keith that helps her out....still reminded of the old married couple. Keith definitely talks to Missy, as he told us last week as well. These two have a rapport, and they are in the same peer group. When the fight or disagree is it like a married couple?
Baylor told us why they chose Jeremy to go to EI, because it would be better for their alliance if he found the HII.
The losers return to camp, we hear the howler monkey, that reminds us of Jon. And, they talk about Jon...specifically Keith...He is with you for life, Jon was almost crying he was so happy, and Jaclyn too. Wes had another confessional about how it was a move to give up their place in the reward. Then we hear Natalie telling Wes and Keith that they will vote for Reed tonight, and they just want a head's up, they don't want to be blindsided...Keith in conf tells us so Keith can use his idol when he gets wind. He's learning!
Then we hear from Jeremy, why he and Nat gave up the reward, and then we see the people on the yacht...Sure appears to the viewer as the wrong decision.
Jon has a confessional when he gets back to camp: Jon in conf: my cover will be blown if they all think I am lying and have the idol, and I could be in very big trouble...
I think that Jon has been gunning for Jeremy for several weeks now. Ever since the merge, Jon has known that the one to beat here is Jeremy. He was so against Jeremy, he was willing to take on Wes/Keith/Alec/Reed/Josh...felt they would be an easier option to the end. So, last week Jeremy won the IC and was not a boot candidate. Clearly, if Jeremy doesn't win, Jon is going to put him at the top of the list. He will capitalize on the opportunity that presents. When a door opens, you better walk through it when you have the chance.
Cut to IC, Jeremy loses, and Baylor wins. Jeremy gets the confessional of doom....he was just happy that someone in his alliance won.
Then we get the Reed drama when he gets into Keith's bag and takes the idol instructions, tells Missy/Jaclyn. Then Keith gets wind of it...Then Jaclyn tells Jon, now its more complicated
Then we see Jeremy and Natalie talking, Jeremy trusts no one but Nat, and is sure that Jon has the II, he's a terrible liar so let's see what he does....Jon comes and does not tell them he has it.
I thought this was the right move on Jon's part. Some may argue that it was not, certainly Jeremy in his post show interviews thinks it was the wrong move...lol. But, we knew that Jeremy was NEVER with Jon, ever. He dismissed him from the start, and now he wanted to catch him in a lie, what would he have done with that information...he would have wanted Jon out even faster. I felt the time had come....when an opportunity presents, you need to take it, because hesitation will kill you in this game.
I also thought it clearly put Jon in the drivers seat. It was solely his move to make. He used the HII to cement Missy/Baylor with him as well. Missy had to think that she could possibly manipulate Jon far easier than Jeremy. And, I think Jeremy's fault in his game may have been just that. That he was too controlling. Let your alliance mates feel like they have some control too. Perhaps that is what Jon is doing...Regardless, I thought Jon orchestrated the Jeremy boot perfectly.
Missy got a meaty confessional right before cutting to TC: Missy: Jon is super aligned with me...jeremy is a threat...I have watched Jon and Jac barrel through people. since I started this game, I was with Jeremy and Natalie, Jeremy and I were aligned full fledged..now it is a little bit cloudy...maybe a better way to do it is to flush the idol, split the vote between Reed and Keith, if we rock the boat too hard, one of us is gonna fall out...
Again, I note that a major player is giving us rationale for a move of theirs...but there is some room for doubt.
I loved the final scene: Natalie: What the *(&%^, Missy
See Josh laughing, see Reed winks.
Alec smiles, Natalie shakes her head.
Jiffy: Tonights vote is a brutal and beautiful example of why you never give up, anything can happen, good night.
Loved the ending!
Again, I think Jon's move was perfect. Clearly, he will become the number one person to beat moving forward. Let's face it, there is a LONG way to go to the end. I will say, if he makes it, he will win. He will have a jury full of guys, and could have his GF there too. I think the male chauvinists would vote for the guy that made the big move in the end.
If Jon gets out, it is Missy's game. But, there are hints for me that Baylor could one up her possibly. I also think that Keith could pull something out as well.
I also want to note in the clip at the end of Survivor Live, where we are shown them coming back to camp after the Jeremy vote out, we see a sloth, then we hear Keith...then we see this...
If Jon is the howler monkey, Keith is the slow and steady sloth!
Thanks for all the assessments!

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-26-14, 06:45 PM (EST)

96. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

There are a lot of people who are convinced that this was a bad move for Jon and Missy so I'm glad to see that you think it was perfect for him at least. Like you wrote: "hesitation will kill you in this game."
You don't think Missy could beat Jon in the FTC despite her thoughts that people won't appreciate Jon's methods? Right now, I'd say she'd get Josh and Jeremy's votes.
I also wonder if the reason why Keith, Wes and Alec voted for Reed was only because Natalie said she wanted to see him voted out. That was before the bag incident so maybe there was more to it than that. After seeing his name come up twice again, Keith will now see Natalie as a liar. Poor guy; he is always caught up in the game within the game!
Did you see the secret scene where Baylor flirted with Alec? I've only heard about it but I'm trying to track it down. I wonder why it didn't make the episode.

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Sheldor 4681 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-26-14, 08:13 PM (EST)

98. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

michel wrote: Did you see the secret scene where Baylor flirted with Alec? I've only heard about it but I'm trying to track it down. I wonder why it didn't make the episode.
Here it is if you can view CBS SurvivorOnCBS YouTube videos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPw0PYjB9co

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-26-14, 08:14 PM (EST)

99. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

Thank you. I guess this would tell us that Baylor won't be getting Alec's vote.

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Sheldor 4681 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-27-14, 04:12 AM (EST)

100. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

michel wrote: "Thank you. I guess this would tell us that Baylor won't be getting Alec's vote."
You're welcome.
It would be more telling if this scene were included in the show but they left it out. There have been other "negative" confessionals about Baylor in the bonus clips so it makes me wonder why they are spinning such as "positive" edit for Baylor.
For instance, they have left in two scenes of Alec treating her poorly but not really showing why he is treating her like that. They haven't shown Baylor being lazy, spoiled, entitled, etc. like they did for Morgan last season.

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
11-27-14, 04:13 PM (EST)

103. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

LAST EDITED ON 11-27-14 AT 11:30 PM (EST)
It's because they want to build doubt in the final TC - I'd say that Baylor has the highest probability of being in the final TC of all the contestants left in the game, but there's no chance she will win. It's clear that the editing has been careful to show Baylor as 'deserving' enough of being there at the end even though she's got so many warts.
Look up "goat" in the dictionary and you'll see her picture.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-28-14, 06:49 AM (EST)

105. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

I think it would make look Missy worse if she was defending such atrocious behavior. Right now, Baylor is "positive" to use Sheldor's word and already Missy is getting flak for protecting her. Imagine if Baylor was "negative".

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-27-14, 08:01 AM (EST)

101. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

Boy, Natalie's stock is rising more and more each episode, so much so that I am now considering her for the win. There is a real player out there, ha!
I think Missy will need to make some moves in order to win the vote, rather than ride coattails. You and I know that she is working it behind the scenes, but we know that Keith is frustrated with her, and I think the chauvinists (Wes/Alec/Keith) all don't really like her. (Maybe Keith does). Also, Jeremy is pissed at her, and Josh doesn't really know her, but knows that Baylor is under her spell. And, she is such a momma bear where Baylor is concerned. I also see her with a journey story, the mom that finally got to be in the drivers seat.
I did see the secret scene and I didn't make that much of it. They are on the yacht and Alec gets to hold the bowl of potato chips. Baylor goes and plops down on his lap, and he has a confessional....Baylor is basically a pain in the a$$, but I will pretend to flirt with her because I may need her in this game....or something to that effect. Frankly, I didn't put too much stock into it.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
11-27-14, 10:54 PM (EST)

104. "RE: Episode 9 - It's Part of the Game:"

LAST EDITED ON 11-27-14 AT 10:54 PM (EST)
If Natalie wins, I demand credit for declaring her as a sleeper pick awhile back.
...Okay, not really, since I kind of abandoned that idea around the merge, but I can pretend like I KNEW ALL ALONG!!!

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
11-29-14, 02:41 PM (EST)

106. "Episode 10 - Complete Chaos"

During the recap, Jeff reminded us that no idols had been played, leaving three idols still in the game: Jon’s idol that he shared only with Jaclyn and Missy. Keith’s idol that Reed told everyone about and one idol that still hadn’t been found (We see Baylor and Natalie with the clue)
Facing Tribal Council, Reed was the target of the majority alliance but after Jeremy became suspicious that his ally Jon had an idol, everything changed.
At Tribal Council Jon convinced enough of the tribe to take out Jeremy, sparing Reed and blindsiding Jeremy’s closest ally, Natalie.
We saw Jaclyn, Missy and Baylor vote for Jeremy. Reed’s vote wasn’t shown.
The recap concentrated mostly on idols in order to set up the upcoming episode so it makes it difficult to see any hints about the players. What we can say is that Reed’s and Natalie’s precarious positions were noted. We didn’t see that Reed got close enough to the alliance to vote with them. Jon’s mistake of sending Jeremy to Exile Island wasn’t mentioned. We saw Jon talking to Missy about the vote but nothing was said about her role in blindsiding an ally.

Huyopa – Night 24
The tribes were greeted by a sloth, a pretty good symbol for Keith who isn’t the fastest out there.
Keith had the first confessional: “I tell you what: Tribal! That was a biggie tonight. Reed was going home. That is the last word I got. I even voted for Reed. Reed’s a gamer. He plays and he knows how to talk to folks, figures stuff out: Mathematic numbers and all that mess which is way above me.”
In the middle of Keith’s confessional, we saw Reed talking to Keith, Alec and Wes, telling them they were on thin ice. Alec said they needed one more person. Reed said they had to stick together and that they would figure something out.
Reed’s interview: “Jeremy went home. It was a big play and it was a big success... I’m trying to decide how I can go deeper into this game. Whether it’s sticking with Jon and his group and just picking off people who are in my alliance or taking out Jon. That would be a really great play because Jon thinks he’s alpha male here.”
We then saw Natalie talking to Missy and the others, saying she felt blindsided and wondering how she could trust them. Missy explained the situation, saying that Natalie was off with Jeremy but the audio went to Natalie’s interview instead. When the sound cut back to the group, we heard Jon telling Natalie about his idol, saying it was a factor in the decision and telling her it shows he still trusts her.
Natalie (solo): “Oh! My god! Talk about a blindside. It sucks because I had Jeremy as my partner. It was really hard for me but I had to put on a good face and just try to figure out what to do next. It was definitely Jon in charge of the whole blindside and I want to give Jon a little taste of his own medicine. I want to do it for Jeremy and it’s just figuring out the right plan and the right moment.”

It was still night when Natalie went looking for the idol that was buried somewhere in camp. Natalie explained: “Baylor showed me her clue when we were in Exile. I have to find that bloody idol... If I can pull it off, it will be amazing because I would love to get rid of Jon.”
The two players that were in danger took a different path to get to the same conclusion. They both want to get Jon out but, while Reed went directly against Jon’s alliance, Natalie got back inside the alliance and gained Jon’s trust. This episode showed us that Reed’s path was unsuccessful but what about Natalie’s? I really think that she will get revenge for Jeremy and cause Jon’s torch to meet Jeff’s snuffer.
We also noted that whatever Missy told Natalie to smooth things over with Natalie, all that we heard was that Natalie was too close to Jeremy to let her know the plan. Missy didn’t give us a confessional about that sticky situation.

The Reward Challenge
For once we had an interesting reward, one that featured the children of Nicaragua playing baseball. It had been a while since we had some local flavor.
I would like to have seen the selections on this one because the teams seemed lopsided:
Yellow had Jon, Alec, Reed and Jaclyn.
Blue had Wes, Baylor, Natalie and Missy.
Keith wasn’t selected so he spit when Jeff informed us.
It turned into a close challenge because they were all fairly even swimmers. Blue had a small lead up until the end of the 3rd leg where Reed pulled slightly ahead of Baylor. Alec kept the lead over Natalie. It all went downhill for Blue when they tried to unlock the platform. They were unable to find the right key. Wes and Missy were the ones that seemed to be handling the keys but Jeff didn’t assign blame. We did hear them say “don’t panic, just calm down.”
As soon as the Yellow team won, the camera went to Baylor, showing her despair. Jeff turned to them first: “The bigger story seems to be with Natalie, Baylor, Missy and Wes. Baylor, the minute it was over, your head was down like you were ready to cry.” She answered: “My mom hasn’t won a reward yet. I wanted us to win for her.”
Reed then told Jeff that he would give up his reward to Missy since she wanted to go. He explained: “It’s about doing good for other people.”
Jon said that Wes would have to go to Exile Island.
Reed in interview: “Missy wants to go on this reward and in the grand scheme of things; I can suck this up because, with them being gone, it will give me a chance to get the ball rolling in taking out Jon.”
Since I am always looking for the “big story” It was interesting to hear Jeff say that the bigger story was about Natalie, Baylor, Missy and Wes. Was he telling us something? Well, Wes was the boot story while Baylor and Natalie found an idol so they were part of a bigger story than just winning a reward. Of course, the biggest story of all is the winner’s story so maybe Jeff was hinting that we’ll find that story in this group also.
A Field of Dream
I wonder if Dennis Martinez ever played on that field.
Missy had the first confessional: “...These kids swarm us...It was just the sweetest thing... I’m going to start crying again. This is so fun for me. I’ve been a single mom raising two girls...My kids are my number one priority... I needed that recharge. I feel like the energizer bunny.” She spoke a bit of Spanish to the kids.
The yellow team got a couple of runs.
Jon’s confessional was next: “Right next to me is the cutest kid ever. Kids are definitely a huge heartstring for Jaclyn and me...I’ve wanted to have a kid but, unfortunately, Jaclyn is not able to have children...When Jaclyn told me she couldn’t have kids it was like, OK, so we can adopt. I’m not going to leave a woman who I think is one of the most incredible people I’ve met just because she’s not able to birth a kid.”
It was time for Jon to show us what he had as a baseball player. So...He bunted and was safe at first.
Jaclyn also had a confessional: “The reward was a lot more important for me and Jon than I thought it would be going in. Jon and I have a lot of love to give and it doesn’t matter if it’s an adopted child...It’s going to be OK.”
Finally, Jon and Jaclyn got the airtime to let us know about their inability to have children. I think it was a very nice touch to show it during this reward. Some will say that Jon’s victory pose is an indication that he will win it all in the end. That worked for Bob in the Gabon premiere but here? Jon only bunted and was safe at first so let’s not get carried away! I think it was shown to symbolize his story in this episode. Like he did when he walked over to the plate, Jon entered TC with a lot of confidence. Then he was surprised by a high and in fastball by a young pitcher just as much as he was by Reed’s tactic. By reflex, he bunted the ball in self-defense just like he played his idol. At the end, he was very glad and surprised to be safe.

Huyopa – Day 25
Reed’s interview: “I needed to get to Keith and have kind of this heart-to-heart, come-to-Jesus conversation and say: Where do you stand in this game? Sometimes I don’t know if Keith understands the intricacies of this game.”
Natalie sent the boys to go check the fishing nets, making things simple for Reed...and for herself!
Talking in private with Keith, Reed explained how the other alliance would split the votes. Keith figured that Reed and Alec would have to pretend to be with them.
Reed explained the plan in confessional: “What I am counting on is the majority alliance will split the vote between Wes and Keith but, if we stay four strong, we will be able to take out Jon in one fell swoop. I’m playing a “go big or go home” game right now and I really hope it pans out.”
Keith’s confessional: “That’s a really good plan. We can play all four and get Jon, the ringleader which I don’t care for to begin with and I still won’t have to play the idol...Hopefully.”
So Reed played big but didn’t go home while Keith wasted his idol, didn’t get Jon but saw his son get the boot instead.
Surprisingly, it seems that Keith will come out of all this in better shape than the schemer.
While this was going on, Natalie told Baylor they were going idol hunting.
Baylor’s interview: “I was ready to get some water and Natalie is like: What are you doing? We are going to look for this idol right now. I was like: Oh! Shoot! Ok, let’s go. We thought about the clue...the four symbols...”
Natalie’s interview: “I went back to the flag and then right in the middle of camp. It’s...by the fire. We went berserk. We were...out of our minds... We ran to the water as fast as we’ve ever done in our lives. This is the idol. Finding it is exactly how you think it will feel. We are...so elated. This is my little twinnie...I want Jon out bad but we have to get rid of one more boy before Jon because that allows to take out Jon and still have a majority girls. Baylor has become my number one. Me and her, we are on the same page and we have to get rid of Reed because he is really good at immunity challenges and all he does is make up stuff so then target is off of him and is on other people.”
Before Natalie told us that she wanted Jon out, we heard her tell her plan to Baylor: Keep Jon feeling comfortable for one more vote, keep in mind that Reed is scary, take out one of the boys so that they couldn’t take out the women one by one. Reed was their first target.
For something that wasn’t going to be put in action immediately, Natalie’s plan was very well explained. It gives us the impression that it will work but Reed needs to go first. The one caveat for Natalie is that she considers Baylor to be her closest ally. We know that Baylor will always be closer to her mother so will that come back to bite Natalie later on.
As for this segment, I hope everyone noticed that we didn’t even bother going to see Wes on Exile Island. This proves that the search for idols is now considered more important than the characters, EVEN when it is the last episode for that person.
The Immunity Challenge
In a classic Endurance/temptation challenge, Jon was out first for candy and milk (didn’t he just have all that Baseball food? He’s worse than Stephenie!) I noted that Jeff said there was a million dollars on the line just before Jon went out. Tasting the sugar, Jon let out a scream that must have scared a few Howler Monkeys. Jeff rubbed it in, saying that Jon stayed up only 7 minutes. Keith noted that Jon must feel safe. He couldn’t believe that someone less than half his age couldn’t last.
This scene was very bad for Jon. There was a million dollars on the line and Jon cared only for food which has been a theme this season. Keith rubbing it in was typical character assassination. I do not think Jon will be able to recover from this and that his chances of winning the game are done.
After 30 minutes, Alec was comparing his situation to Jesus on the cross. Missy went out shortly after but Jeff didn’t say anything about missing an opportunity to get some food. Missy teased the guys, saying it felt good to be walking on the sand but Baylor didn’t appreciate it.
When Jeff brought out cookies and milk, baylor ran faster than after finding the idol! Jaclyn also went for the cookies. Jeff said: “Baylor and Jaclyn gave up a shot at a million dollars for two glasses of milk and 5 chocolate chip cookies.”
Thank you Jeff: You have just eliminated two more players even if they weren’t serious contenders. The players are falling like flies.
That’s when Keith was attacked by some “damn wasps.”
As soon as Jeff showed chicken wings and beers, Wes was out.
Keith told Natalie that her team was sitting out over there. He said: “Natalie is fighting for her team, the three of us are fighting for our lives.” He added that he would have a father-son talk with Wes after.
Wes said he won a chicken nugget eating contest. Later, he joked around with Jeff about his small role in 2 and ½ men.
Wes isn’t the first contestant to learn the hard way that you don’t make fun of Jeff!!
After an hour and 20 minutes, Wes, Alec, Reed and Natalie were still holding on while Jon was licking his plate of candy. Keith’s feet were turning purple. He went down soon after, Jeff saying he was wise to do so and we heard Missy say that he was amazing.
Alec couldn’t bear his cross any longer so he was the next to go.
After 3 hours and spitting in herself, Natalie realized that she wouldn’t beat Reed so she struck a deal with Jeff. Reed won immunity but Natalie got pizza, wings, a cookie, water and a beer.
Not a bad deal!
Both players had cramps but, for some reason, Reed decided to show off and did the split. He remained in that pose until Jeff gave him the necklace.

After calling Reed a fool, Natalie had a confessional: “When I started seeing stars and feeling like I was going to throw up, I figured I might as well get some sustenance in my body even if I lose.”
For Reed, it was a dream come true. He had a confessional: “At least, I am not going home tonight because I am not giving up this immunity necklace and hopefully I can rally people around to vote Jon tonight.”

Huyopa – Day 26
Reed: “Jon stepped down seven minutes into the challenge today. It’s always very telling when people step down and they don’t really have to try and who ends up stepping down first. I was like, fine! he is going home tonight. Basically, how this works is I’m going to try to get the majority alliance have four people vote for Keith and have three more people vote for Wes. That is what everyone thinks is going to happen but basically, myself, Wes, Alec and Keith vote four strong and we would be sending Jon home tonight. It’s an amazing plan but it has to be stuck to.”
Reed talked to Keith and Alec to let them know the plan. With Alec, he then approached Missy and Baylor.
Alec’s interview: “The opposing alliance thinks that we are going to vote with them tonight against Wes and Keith but what we are going to do is we are going to blindside Jon tonight.”
Missy went to Jon, saying they had to do the split vote in order to prevent Keith and Wes to “scoot on out with an idol.”
Jon thought Reed wouldn’t be with them but Missy replied that he and Alec were trying to be in with them. She was ready to bet with Jon that Reed would vote with them.
Alec came by so Jon asked him if he was 100% with them. Alec said he was so Jon said it was a matter of building trust.
Jon gave us an interview: “Tonight’s tribal is the first tribal where I am not really calling the shots. It is the first time that I am at the mercy of my alliance. I’m saving the idol for either Jaclyn or me, whoever makes it the farthest. It would be selfish to use it on myself right now. The only thing that gives me hope going into tonight is the reassurance I had talking with Alec and that is why I believe that tonight will go as planned. This tribal is definitely the most important so far.”
Jon’s view of the game is really weird. This was actually the first time that Jon was not a swing voter but the true leader of the alliance so he should have been the one calling the shots. It had to be Jon’s call. You never let an outsider like Reed call the shots. Missy made an even bigger mistake because she’s the one that believed Reed and Alec. They should have realized that Reed and especially Alec had nothing to gain by eliminating Keith and his idol. Anyway, you don’t need to split the votes to get rid of an idol; you just have to keep the minority guessing. At this stage, you don’t start building trust with the players you want to eliminate; you start working on getting their votes. Jon should have pulled Missy aside and told her something like: “Let Reed and Alec vote for Keith and Wes but we vote for Alec.”
During Jon’s confessional, we saw the players picking up their torches and start walking in a single file. They were probably hurried out of camp because the staff sensed that the pot had already been stirred long enough and they didn’t want anything to spoil this big blindside before Jeff could get his hands on the players. The short time used on this segment reminded me the old days when we spent very little time in camp once immunity had been decided.
Tribal Council
When Jeremy walked in, we saw that his eyes were on Missy and Jon, the players who backstabbed him. His vote won’t be easy to earn.
Jeff went to Jaclyn asking for her thoughts after the two big blindsides that took out players with a good shot at winning the game.
Jaclyn said: “I think that I am in the five strong right now.”
Since they were five strong, why were they relying on votes from the others? And if it was OK to say that there is a five strong alliance because everyone knew about it, why did they think the others were with them? Right there, Jaclyn put her finger on the problem that everyone in Jon’s alliance should have seen but no one realized it.
Baylor told Jeff that it was hard to trust people.
As he would throughout this whole council, Alec looked baffled when he heard this.
Keith told Jeff that the reason no one had played an idol was because they felt comfortable.
Jeff asked Natalie about the problem with playing an idol at the right time
(Some people believed Probe when he said he didn’t get information from camp!)
Natalie said the idol was both a blessing and a curse. She added that it was all about timing in this game.
Reed pointed to the people who stepped down early in the challenge, saying they looked comfortable. He then mentioned that Wes stepped down early so that probably meant he or Keith had an idol.
While Reed was trying to be coy, making Jon think he was truly with him, it wasn’t the smartest thing to say because it made Keith unsure of Reed’s position.
Jeff turned to Keith, saying: “It doesn’t get more direct than that.”
After telling Jeff that he was surprised by this sudden talk about idols, Keith leaned over and looked directly at Reed when he said the fatal words: “I say: Stick to the plan.”
Like the cymbal crashes indicated, all hell broke loose. In his panic, Reed completely lost it. While Jon told Jeff that Keith’s remark was very confusing, Reed started whispering, trying to do quick damage control but making it even worse. Natalie turned to Jaclyn and asked: “Do you trust him.” Jaclyn simply said “No”. Reed’s expression sank as he hid half his face in his hands.
Sitting away from the action, Missy told Jeff that it was complete chaos. “I’m talking and they are popping.”
Jeff was enjoying it: “I have the best seat.”
Baylor said it reminded her of the distorted mirrors that you see in a fair. She summed it up well when she said: “We may not have been as organized as we thought.”
When Jeff told them it was time to vote, Reed asked once more if they were still doing this.
Josh was smiling, not realizing that his partner’s plan had been exposed.
It was only when Jeff went to tally the votes, at a time when the players used to be under strict gag orders, that Natalie saved the day by telling Jon to play his idol. He had to ask her to repeat what she said. She did but he still wasn’t sure. Natalie looked like she was about to smack some sense into him!
When Jeff asked if anyone wanted to play an idol, Jon and Keith looked nervous while Reed still looked optimistic. That changed when Jon told Jeff he wasn’t keeping his idol in his pocket. Keith then asked Wes to “pull it out”.

In turn, Keith stood up but, before giving it to Jeff, he told Wes: “You play it.” Wes told him “No, you got it.”
Jeremy slapped Josh’s thigh, saying: “They played both. Oh! Snap.”
When Jeff turned the fourth vote against him, Jon smiled and said: “I’m so glad I played that.”
There were four votes wasted on Jon and three on Keith before Jeff turned the two that sent Wes packing.
Still smiling, Jon turned to Reed and said: “Sly dog, you.”
A bit slow on the uptake, Baylor asked: “So, Alec voted for Jon?” Natalie had to tell her: “Yeah. And so did Reed.” For some reason, Baylor found that funny.
Jeff sent them back to camp after saying: “You guys are truly playing this game in the moment. It’s aggressive and it’s risky. Now that you started, you can never go back.”
The Story
There was a lot of chaos in San Juan del Unsure. We can thank the staff member who made the seating arrangements for all that confusion. Often, they sit members of alliances together but this time they were scattered with Reed on one end, Alec in the middle while Keith and Wes were on the other end and the members of Jon’s alliance were sprinkled in between. Jeff said that their game was aggressive and risky, I’d say it was idiotic and I think quite a few people will agree with me. The result is that everyone’s edit took a hit except one player who emerged as the only one who figured out what was going on. So, instead of making a case for them, I’ll look at the flaws in their edit and see which looks best in comparison.
The Characters
Alec: He was one of Survivor’s representatives at the baseball game but we practically didn’t see him or hear from him at the event. I can understand because I’d be ashamed having him representing my franchise. He was part of Reed’s scam and he gave us his thoughts on the plan but his contribution didn’t bring anything new to the narrative. We didn’t hear from him during Tribal Council but we saw his baffled expressions telling us that he didn’t understand what was going on. We never considered Alec as a contender and that didn’t change even in what was probably his best episode.
Reed: For him, there is no question that this was his best episode. He gave up his reward to Missy in order to talk to Keith, he was impressive in his challenge victory and he came up with a good plan that fooled his rivals. Still, we saw a negative in each case. Since he said that giving up rewards was transparently self-serving, no one was fooled about his motives. While talking to Keith was important, he was tricked by Natalie who got him to leave camp long enough so that she could find the remaining idol. His challenge victory and the showboating that followed will not be forgotten so he should be voted out the next time he isn’t wearing the necklace at TC. As for his plan, he outsmarted himself when he told Jeff that Keith and Wes probably had an idol. That was meant to sell the idea that he was voting with Jon’s group but it spooked Keith who wasn’t sure if the plan had changed. If Reed had remained calm after Keith’s foot-in-mouth moment the plan may have still worked but his panicked reaction and all the whispering that followed told Natalie that he couldn’t be trusted. Reed may be really smart when it comes to numbers but he doesn’t have the calm, reassuring attitude that keeps people’s trust and he doesn’t have the edit for the winner.
Baylor: She was a bit slow when Natalie wanted to look for the idol but she was really slow when it came time to figure out what happened during the vote. It feels that, like the mirrors at a fair, we are receiving a distorted image of Baylor. Some say that she has a positive edit others cannot stand her. Objectively, it seems that she is getting a lot less negativity than she could. We heard Keith and Alec say that she was lazy but we never really saw her lying around, doing nothing the way we saw Drew earlier on or even Morgan last season. In fact, we’ve seen so little camp life that we can’t really judge each player’s workload so Alec’s complaints aren’t backed by visual evidence. I think that part of the reason why some of her negativity is hidden is because she will be facing the jury in the end and the editors don’t want us to be certain that she will lose.
Jaclyn: With Natalie gunning for Jon, I think I have to revise my Final 3 prediction and say that Jaclyn could be the one facing the jury instead of Jon. It’s interesting to see that the frat boys and the editors aren’t the only ones that are ignoring Jaclyn because even Jon did it! I’m not saying that he didn’t talk to her at all but the edited version of Jon only talked to Missy and Alec before making his decision and his confessional made it clear: “Tonight’s tribal is the first tribal where I am not really calling the shots.” I thought Jon and Jaclyn were calling the shots together but here Jon used the first-person singular in the most important decision so far. It’s clear that the editors aren’t giving her a lot of airtime to prevent as many viewers as possible from rooting for her. Even if she is in the majority alliance, we could have had a nice underdog story if we had heard her confessionals about her position in the game and what she plans to do to win the title. But, like Jeff said when she took the plate of cookies, she gave up her shot at the million dollars.

Jon: Despite his great showing at the reward where he got to interact with the cute kids, Jon had a terrible episode, one that put an end to my thoughts that he could win the million. It wasn’t just that he gave up so easily for food in a season where we heard that eating too much isn’t the best idea if you are thinking long term but seeing him lick his plate brought back to mind the cartoon character comment that Jeremy made earlier. Maybe back then that should have been enough for us to eliminate Jon from contention but there was always something more to Jon. Not this time because, instead of Jon saying something to regain our sympathy we heard Keith severely putting him down. In just a few words, Keith was telling us that Jon wasn’t made of the right stuff.
Keith: After everyone else told us that Keith wasn’t very smart, it was his turn to tell us that this numbers game is way above him. His dopey eyes when Reed told him about the plan reminded me of Dreamz when Mookie was trying to reason with him. Dreamz at least had the excuse of hiding his alliance with Earl but what is Keith hiding? It was his paranoia that ignited the Council and set the wheels in motion, getting his son’s torch snuffed. Keith should be eliminated from consideration but I still can’t quite dismiss the “charges” against him. Going by game play alone, he should have no chance at this because he lost his son and his idol but that’s what led me to dismiss Bob’s chances in Gabon. Bob had a good edit and so does Keith so I don’t want to repeat that mistake. If only that damned wasp had clearly landed on him! All the “fly theorists” would have eliminated him. The question is: why is Keith edited in such an important manner? It could simply be because he is a funny character but looking back to his trips to Exile Island where he clearly outshined Val and Josh or to the start of the last few episodes where he got important confessionals after returning from TC we can see that there could be more to it than that. He could still be the fireman that gets all the “love” in the end.
Missy: Despite a very good showing at the reward, this wasn’t a good episode for Missy. Her explanation to Natalie at the start of the episode was cut short and we didn’t hear her follow-up confessional that was recorded after the last TC. She completely fell for Alec and Reed’s lie, unable to see that they were being phony with her. She even was ready to bet with Jon that Reed was with them. She would have lost that bet but it would have been much more costly for Jon. Did she lose her chance to win the million at the same time? Maybe I should divorce Missy! She certainly has changed her mind about a few guys before but it’s a little late to change for me. This episode makes it difficult to defend her case but who else is there? The best indications that Missy will win is that Baylor isn’t as negative as she could be and Jeff didn’t say that she lost the reward when she fumbled with the keys. If Baylor was really portrayed poorly then Missy would look worse when she defends her. As for the challenges, that’s twice now that Jeff’s narrative covered up her failures. It must mean something. Even if it was self-serving, Reed’s decision to give her his reward tells us that she isn’t hated by her rivals, that she may even be liked a little.
Natalie: If I were to divorce Missy it’s because there is another woman! I’m falling for Natalie, maybe the smartest player there. It took her until the very end of Tribal Council to realize that the numbers didn’t add up but she was the only one to see through Reed’s con game. I just loved her expression when Jon wasn’t convinced he should play his idol. She looked ready to slap him and she had good reason because her game could have sank with his. It must be hard to play with idiots! In this season that was destined to be ruled by the women, Natalie would make the best winner but her early edit makes it impossible to call her the Sole Survivor. Her showing in the premiere was nondescript and she was ignored during the merge episode. She had a few good moments before the merge when she realized that Nadiya was voted out, when Hunahpu got rid of Drew and when she volunteered to accompany Baylor to Exile Island. That isn’t much considering that we didn’t hear many of her confessionals to connect us with her game. The vote against Drew showed us that she was good at this game but it left me with the impression that she was underestimating Jon. Now that she is gunning for Jon to get revenge for Jeremy, I think we are heading to a showdown between these two and I have more confidence that Natalie will win that battle than before. What about the war though? She still has no end game connections, her plans being limited to getting rid of Jon. I had early doubts that Natalie could get votes because of her outbursts against Coyopa but she has been much calmer since then. In fact, it would be hard to beat her if she makes it to the jury. Natalie’s edit is very weak for a winner and it would be surprising that someone who was a “star” before the season started wouldn’t have been featured more if she was coming out on top.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
11-30-14, 05:39 PM (EST)

107. "RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos"

LAST EDITED ON 12-01-14 AT 08:48 AM (EST)
After 24 days, 7 voted out and no idols played, leaving 3 idols still in the game, Jon's, that he shared with only Jac and Missy. Keith's, that Reed told everyone about.
and one that hadn't been found. Facing TC Reed was the target of the majority alliance, but after EI Jeremy became suspicious of Jon, everything changed...at TC, Jon convinced enough of the tribe to take out Jeremy, sparing Reed and blindsiding Jeremy's closest ally...Natalie
The 3 idols in the game have not been played, but this was favorable for Jon, because it states the "Jeremy became suspicious of Jon and everything changed". This gives the credit to Jeremy for igniting his boot. Jon capitalized on it, but blindsided Natalie, Jeremy's closest ally.
Keith was impressed, and credits Reed as a gamer, who is much better at Mathematics than he is. Then we get Reed's take, whether to stay with Jon and take out his alliance one by one, or to get the guy that thinks he's alpha male here.
Then Natalie has a very telling confessional: Natalie seen talking to Missy: I felt totally blindsided...In confessional: It sucks as Jeremy was my partner, I had to put on a good face and pretend. Then we see Jon who leans over and tells her that he has the idol. I wouldn't tell you, if I didn't trust you now, everything is still the exact same....Natalie in conf: It was Jon behind it, I want to give Jon a taste of his own medicine at the right time, and moment.
So the stage is set....Natalie wants to exact revenge for the Jeremy vote out, it will either work or not.
Personally I can see it come to a head, and I can see a case for either side to triumph. Natalie who really seems to be quite perceptive and have her head in the game at this point could triumph. But, I just question why she did not seem to have any relevance to the early game, while Jon certainly did. I could see them going to blows and Jon coming out on top as well. His instincts are not really off.
See Natalie at night, wake up when they all are sleeping, she has to find the idol...Baylor showed her the immunity idol clue. 1- something from the flag, so to do list: find idol, if I can find it, that would be amazing because I would like to get rid of Jon....cut to intro.
Natalie starts on her quest to find the idol.
Then we have the RC, and the yellow tribe easily wins when the blue tribe cannot open their lock with the right key. Reed gives his place up to Missy....Reed is a player and he's self serving, they should see it. He tells us he needs the time to talk with Keith to get the ball rolling to knock out Jon.
Cut to the baseball field and the equipment and kids. Missy has a nice confessional but the star of the moment was Jon. Jon got a special highlighted edit here, when he spoke of Jaclyn's inability to birth children. But, he still loves her, she is the love of his life, and they will adopt. Jaclyn sealed the deal by affirming that everything would work out for them because they had crazy love to give. Now the question I ask is WHY was Jon so positively highlighted here? Yes, it fit nicely with the kids and both of them there....but Jon has really had the most positive edit, and I don't know if the winner of the show would.
I suppose they are highlighted because they symbolize all that is involved in a blood vs. water season...
J had a nice confessional about his dad in the first episode, then a nice one in episode 2 about if you make a mistake you own it and move on, and nice moments like, if I have learned one thing from watching Survivor all these years, it's to follow your gut. Now this edit...Either Jon is the winner, or the hero that falls just short...it could possibly be the rise before the fall as well.
Also interesting to note that when Jon walked up to bat, it was Missy that was heard cheering for him...Jon and Missy have the important connection in this game, at least that is the way I have seen it.
*I loved your comparison with Jon bunting the ball and being surprised to be safe, to how he came into TC, confident...
Back at camp, Reed pulled Keith away and had a great confessional: I knew I had to have a come to jesus talk with Keith. Where do you stand in this game? Some times I don't know if Kieth understands the intricacies of how this game is played. See him talking, that other alliance is convinced that you have the idol, they want to split the vote between you and Wes, but Alec and I are going to vote with you and Wes. I am counting on the majority alliance will split the vote, but if we stay strong, we should take out Jon in one fell swoop, play big or go home and I hope it pans out. That's my plan, what are your thoughts?
Keith is like uh? says in conf: he still may not have to play his idol, hopefully... Then they cut to Natalie and Baylor alone in the campsite...
Natalie: it's awesome, finding it was exactly how you think it will feel. it's like my little twinnie, my friend out here. Baylor has become my number one. Me and her, we are on the same page and we have to get rid of Reed because he is really good at immunity challenges and all he does is make up stuff so then target is off of him and is on other people. We keep Jon feeling comfortable for one more vote, so we keep the numbers, then next time get Jon. But, we vote Reed tonight, then take out Jon, next....Nat says that Reed is so scary, Baylor: I know he is....
This was huge insight into Natalie. She is targeting Reed first, she wants one more guy out, then Jon. It's very interesting that she declares Baylor her new number one. We all know that Baylor already has a number one, her mom. So, now Baylor has 2 direct paths to the end, good for her. But, what about Missy? I would bet that Baylor indeed tells Missy about the idol that Natalie finds, so the question becomes will Missy tell Jon about it? Something to think about....
Wes was sent to EI, and had no confessionals there, just as Baylor and Natalie had no confessionals there. Wes returns and they have the IC. Jon steps down first, always so bad to give in to temptation and show your confident cards. Keith called him out on it, "He feels that safe", Jon responds, "I would have stayed up there if I thought I could last"...."I'm 53, how old are you?" Clearly, Keith got the best of him.....Jaclyn stepped down and so did Baylor and Missy, then Wes....shocking to see him step down. Alec went, and it was down to Keith, Natalie, and Reed....Reed wins. I definitely thought his split was over the top, and seemed to be rubbing it in...clearly that's a mistake!
10 points to SEG for figuring us all out and hiding Reed's IC win!
Reed in confessional sums it all up: Reed in conf:...whatever...Jon stopped down 7 minutes into the challenge, always telling that means he is going home tonight...see Keith, he asked Reed, Jon? Yes. l will have 4 people vote for Keith, and 3 vote for Wes...then us four vote Jon, and he will go home. It's an amazing plan, but it has to be stuck to. I loved the wording..."it has to be stuck to"...
Then Alec had his confessional, then Missy with Jon. Missy fell for Reed....Reed sacrificing his spot in Reward cemented Missy to him, she was the one to lead Jon confidently too the wrong path. Jon noted, "but Reed will not vote with us", and Missy tells him, "but one of them has the idol, if we don't do this now....then Alec reassures him. Didn't Jon just tell us that you need to follow your gut in this game of Survivor?
At TC Jiffy talks about trust. Then Reed is called on and he points out that while he understood while the 5 of them stepped down, he couldn't figure out why Wes did, he must be comfortable, that he most likely had an idol between he and Keith. This set Keith off, he wasn't sure that Reed was with them, so he interjected, and he leans over and tells Reed to "stick with the plan" (it has to be stuck to! LOL). I agree if everyone had held cool, I think this would have been dismissed, but Reed freaks out and starts verbally telling them to not get them paranoid, etc. And, before you know it they are all talking over each other! THIS WAS EPIC, imo, something I don't recall seeing before!
Jiffy wraps it up quickly and Natalie tells Jon to "play your idol", he didn't hear her, and she repeats it....he says, Really?, she says, "it's up to you" as she buries her head in her hands. Jon plays the idol, then Keith plays his, half heartedly offering it to Wes, then playing it on himself. Jon gets 4 votes, "so happy I played that", and Keith gets 3 votes, and Wes is out with 2 votes. Jon, laughing turns to Reed, "You sly dog, you!" Baylor asks what happened, "so Alec voted Reed?", and Jaclyn tells her "yeah, and so did Reed"...clearly not able to follow along, as Natalie so eloquently did!
Jiffy's words were VERY telling, imo, we've heard them BEFORE!!! Jiffy: Well it is quite clear that you guys are playing this game in the moment, it's aggressive and it's risky and now that you have started you can never go back...
WOW, Jiffy used those exact words to talk about this seasons winner....the one you won't expect...a winner that plays the game in the moment. So, who apparently played the game in the moment from Jiffy's vantage point....I would say Jon and Keith, and Natalie! Before this, it was Jon that played in the moment when he orchestrated Jeremy's boot when the opportunity arose, when he didn't win immunity.
This was a GREAT episode, and an even greater TC! I was thrilled with the outcome! So, now where does this leave us for next episode: Natalie has identified that she wants "one of the guys out first, then she will go for Jon"....but interesting is that Reed is still there and she said this: we have to get rid of Reed because he is really good at immunity challenges and all he does is make up stuff so then target is off of him and is on other people, he's so scary.
I believe perhaps that as long as Reed is around, he's a shield for Jon, but there is doubt. We all know that with the edit for the winner, there is usually some doubt cast on the person at some point. Clearly, there is doubt for Jon's end game. In this episode you note that Keith calling out Jon for stepping down at the IC was critical and points to him not winning the end game, but in the same episode we have the stellar highlight of him at the RC. He's a tough read.
I am not convinced in a conflict between Natalie and Jon that Natalie will triumph. He's told us he has to listen to his gut....he did with the Jeremy boot, but while he told Missy that "Reed will not vote with us", he was talked out of listening to it by Missy. If this episode has an impact on Jon, he will not make the mistakes he made here again, with challenges, with idols, and with his gut.
Then, we know that Baylor knows about Natalie's idol, and if she knows, than Missy most likely knows. I believe that the Missy/Jon relationship is really more important to Jon's game than the Jon/Jaclyn relationship. Time will tell.
Reed is a dead man walking. As soon as he doesn't win immunity, I think he's toast. But, who is the biggest challenge threat after Reed? I think Natalie?
We are getting teases that Natalie "could" flip the game, and she's smarter than she looks to Keith, clearly she could do it. Jon could be toast, but for some reason, I don't see it. I do think, however, that Jaclyn could be in trouble....one of them will most likely be going, imho. Jon's highlight edit at the ballgame could be the icing on his story, or not?
If Jaclyn were to go home, what or who would become Jon's number one? Missy.
One thing that looks clear is that Baylor is going to the F3!
I thought Missy's game took a down turn this week. She went on Reward and fell for Reed's plan, and almost gave Reed and company their boot target. But, perhaps it's okay for Missy to take a back seat at this point in the game. In a game full of alphas a beta will win...does Missy just need to sit back and let the big dogs take each other out? It's possible. Will Missy tell Jon about Natalie's idol? Who will be the best option to Missy's end game....Jon or Natalie? Or does she care?
This season has been salvaged by the mix of students of the game with clear folks that are not familiar with how it's played, and it's becoming quite entertaining! Jiffy told us someone that can play in the moment will win, and from the TC the three that stood out were Natalie, Jon, and Keith. Great read as always, michel!
I do feel that Keith is a tool...not very likely to win the game, imo.

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b1whois 126 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
12-01-14, 06:10 PM (EST)

108. "RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos"

<<Cut to the baseball field and the equipment and kids. Missy has a nice confessional but the star of the moment was Jon. Jon got a special highlighted edit here, when he spoke of Jaclyn's inability to birth children. But, he still loves her, she is the love of his life, and they will adopt. Jaclyn sealed the deal by affirming that everything would work out for them because they had crazy love to give. Now the question I ask is WHY was Jon so positively highlighted here? Yes, it fit nicely with the kids and both of them there....but Jon has really had the most positive edit, and I don't know if the winner of the show would. >>
they highlighted the loving couple to set up their big fight for the next episode....
i read every week, thank you to all the posters in this thread, especially michel, without whom my mondays would be so long and boring....

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-01-14, 06:15 PM (EST)

110. "RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos"

Thank you, b1whois.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
12-01-14, 09:10 PM (EST)

111. "RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos"

i agree B1whois, I agree. For me it's Sunday Mornings....I love it, and the longer the read the better!

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-01-14, 06:13 PM (EST)

109. "RE: Episode 10 - Complete Chaos"

Thank you, FP.
What I found worse about Keith's remark after Jon stepped down was that he dismissed him as a deserving player. How old are you he asked and when we all realized that Jon was less than half Keith's age, the fireman showed contempt for the "weakling". The message was clear: Jon isn't a survivalist. He'd die without the rewards.
It's rare that we see that in a winner. Even Natalie was shown as a survivalist: We never heard her coimplain about the weather contrary to Jaison and Mick and she killed a rat which was presented as an exploit.
I'd like to be able to call Keith a tool. When I look at all his bad points, it's like I am playing poker and I have a straight. That should be enough so I should make the call: Keith won't win. But then I peek at his good points and I worry that he has a flush, beating my straight.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-06-14, 08:57 PM (EST)

112. "Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Previously on Survivor, after Reed watched the majority alliance turn on one of their own, he saw an opportunity to flip the game using everyone on the bottom.

Reed convinced the majority alliance to split their votes but his real plan was to vote out Jon, teaming up with Alec, Wes and Keith.
But at tribal Council, nothing went right.
Keith: “I say: Stick to the plan. Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!”
Keith gave away their plan.
Natalie turning to Jon: “Dude, play your idol.”
Two idols were played and Keith’s son Wes was voted out.
Jon to Reed: “Sly dog you.”
The recap put all the blame on Keith and it was weird to hear him laughing after saying his infamous line. That wasn’t heard in the previous episode and it made Keith sound a bit crazy. This is becoming a theme so I’d be worried if I wanted to see Natalie’s plan succeed because the preview for next week tells us that her plan all hinges on Keith being tight with her. As for Jon, the recap made it clear that Natalie needed to tell him to play his idol even if Jeff didn’t spell it out.
The Fight
Huyopa – Night 26
After thanking God, Jon hugged Missy.
Keith in confessional: “Tribal Council was crazy. It didn’t go quite like we anticipated and Wesley went home.”
Alec (solo): “I’m pissed at Keith. Keith gave us away tonight. He’s not very good at Tribal and now I feel completely helpless. My alliance means nothing. We don’t have the numbers and I don’t trust Reed at all.”
This is how you create a theme. After the recap, the editors gave us a confessional to reinforce the idea. From Jeremy to Josh, Reed and Wes, everyone who aligned with Keith has suffered the consequences but, to make our work harder, Keith hasn’t come out of it looking smart at all. Would the editors try to hide some of Keith’s rough edges to enhance his image if he’s the winner or would they show all these warts? I’d love to hear the discussion that goes on in the editing room when it comes time to cut and piece together a scene that involves Keith.
While Reed said that the angry girls were plotting their revenge, Jon was taking credit for the best blindside sniff-out ever. Natalie and Jaclyn agreed that Jon wasn’t going to play his idol but Jon was adamant: “No, I would have played it. I was going to play it.” Natalie objected but Jon stressed the point: “I was going to play that.”
If last week wasn’t enough for everyone to realize that Jon’s story was over, this history revision skit should make it clear. No one tells lies to the audience! If the editors wanted us to see that Jon was saved by Natalie then how dare he contradict them!!
Natalie in confessional: “Jon keeps saying that he was going to play his idol which is totally bull crap... I had to convince him to play it but Jon is so concerned with looking like he is the mastermind of everything he does but he’s really not at all.”
Left alone with Jaclyn, Jon told her that she shouldn’t give credit to the other players because he was worried that the jury wouldn’t give him the credit. Jaclyn (unlike Becky with Yul when he counted his jury votes in front of her) asked: “But what if I am in the top three?” After Jon’s confessional, Jaclyn rightly added: “It was me and Natalie. We were helping you with that.”
Jon in confessional: “Jaclyn gave Natalie the props for my play. We need this for the jury so we can’t say that was her play because then she’s going to use it. We can’t do that. That’s terrible.”
Jaclyn’s confessional: “I was so mad when he took credit for something that I helped him do. He was like: Stop saying you helped and Natalie helped. It was my decision. I was like: Screw you. I’m going to the top three then.”
This scene was quite amusing and it carries a big message: Jon will be going to the F3 after all. That changes our impression from last week that Natalie would be successful because now we see that Jon will not only face the jury but will be short of arguments to make his case. He is so desperate to get some credit that his story has to fall short. I would say that all the hints that made us think that Natalie’s plan would come to fruition were shown to create suspense for this very predictable episode.
The Reward Challenge
The players were asked questions about the castaways that made the merge.
Jeff asked them who had a twin besides Natalie. Everyone knew it was Jeremy except Keith who was probably fantasizing about seeing Jaclyn with a twin.
They played the challenge like amateurs (or as if no one ever heard of Survivor Marquesas): Natalie and Jon went after Reed (who stupidly told everyone it was OK if he missed the horseback ride because his family had 12 horses. I guess he forgot about Carl in Survivor Africa). Alec went after Natalie. Missy put Reed out of his misery. Jaclyn hit Alec and was immediately followed by Baylor. Finally, Reed took revenge on Missy.
The second round was just as boring: The question was about Julie and everyone got it right so Jon sent Alec to the losers’ bench after Alec gave Jon some payback. Missy, Jaclyn and Baylor all went after Keith who went after Missy. Getting to the bench, Keith told the other guys: “It shows you where we stand.”
Now, it was Natalie’s turn so she asked what she should do. Jeff got upset when he saw the last 5 players discussing the outcome. He ended this farce by asking who they wanted to see win it. They said Missy so he gave it to her.
The main problem was the questions which were way too easy. How about asking for posers and who don’t they ever want to see again? That’s the interesting stuff.
Jon volunteered for Exile Island so Missy sent him and then she chose Baylor and Natalie to accompany her. Jaclyn got upset at that (even if Natalie had given her a reward not too long ago!)
Jaclyn told Jeff that those three are really tight. Jeff stirred the pot to let everyone understand what was evident. “A moment ago it was a happy five... now Jon is going to exile and you are going back to camp to eat rice with three people who probably don’t like you very much.”
Reed interjected: “We like her a lot.”
Missy replied: “I’m sure you do.”
When Baylor added that he liked everybody, Reed got into it, saying he was a people person while Baylor was a brat. Missy got involved, telling Reed to listen and shut his mouth. She said she had his back multiple times but he lied to her face. When Reed talked back, Missy turned to Jeff saying it wasn’t worth it, that Reed doesn’t know how to listen. The trio left and, judging by the blur, Missy flipped the bird to Reed as her parting gift.
Jeff still wanted to know what had just happened. Jaclyn said that Jon sacrificed himself for the alliance, that she got the butt end while the top three people were going horseback riding.
I wished she had said: “Well Duh! Jeff, weren’t you watching?”
Keith said: “Them three are tight.”
Right then, in a scene that had to remind people of Jerri, Amber and Mitchell in the canoe, we saw the three women laughing on their way to reward.
Jaclyn in confessional: “That was very telling. Missy chose Natalie so that makes me think that when it does come down to our five, it would be Baylor, Missy and Natalie. It makes me second guess everything.”
If Keith has warts then so does Missy who made an obscene gesture to Reed, laughed at the miserable players much like Jerri was shown to do and has been surprised by a few votes up to now. Which is worse? This season won’t spare anyone so we have to see which is the least damaged.
Exile Island – Day 27
Jon: “I’m excited to be back at Exile because... there was going to be a new clue for an idol...Having time on Exile gives you a lot of time to think and right now my fear in this game is that I’ve become the biggest threat. That’s scary...so I’m not going to stop until I find the damn thing... I see a lot of cracks and crevasses. This looks like the perfect place to hide an idol.” He started laughing as soon as he saw the package: “Finding this idol is definitely something that is going to help me...”
The Reward
Natalie (solo): “Riding horses was wonderful. We got to see Nicaragua from another view... I don’t think I’ll ever forget the experience.”
Missy: “To have me and Baylor was fantastic and then to have Natalie along, who really adores my daughter as a big sister kind of type, she’ll be like a daughter to me forever...”
To the other two, Natalie said: “Jaclyn is such a little princess that you have to worry about Jaclyn’s feelings.”
Right there, we have evidence that even Miss Michigan has warts. The editors have shown us enough of Jaclyn’s attitude to know that Natalie is right.
Missy said that Reed and Alec would be piling on.
Baylor in confessional: “This was an amazing reward but it’s hard to have a good time because we are nervous that Jaclyn is back in camp with these three guys; she can easily be swayed and told things that would change her mind on how she feels about my mom, me and Natalie.”
That’s when Natalie and Baylor told Missy that they have an idol.
Missy in confessional: “I’m proud of my daughter: She found an idol. I cannot believe it. Today proved to me that she is playing this game and I’m going to pat her on the butt the whole way through it.”
Natalie had another interview: “Final three with me, Baylor and Missy would be a hand-picked team for me to go to the final three with. I would be a sure win in my head. I mean anything can happen but I would be completely comfortable going to the final three with them.”
Besides her lack of airtime before the merge and her obsession towards Jon, we now see Natalie’s main editing flaw: She is convinced she would win in a Final Three. I don’t remember hearing even Boston Rob be that confident. That tells us that Natalie either falls short or doesn’t get the votes. Since she only sees the need to get revenge on Jon, I see her getting blindsided very shortly.
Huyopa – Day 27
Jaclyn had an interview: “It’s so funny that Missy would pick Natalie. I don’t know if that was the smartest move on Missy’s part. Maybe it’s just me being hot-headed and mad because I didn’t get to go horseback riding but that was dumb.”
How ironic that she says that Jon always feels entitled.
The guys prepared extra rice for Jaclyn so that she could enjoy it. Reed gave us a confessional about his plan which was to show Jaclyn that Missy, Baylor and Natalie were going to the F3 together.
Jaclyn in confessional: “Alec, Reed and Keith are being super nice. It’s so funny like; really guys? I want to tell them to stop being fake but at the same time I’m interested to see how things work out tonight with the guys and what they try to pitch to me.”
Reed told Jaclyn that Missy was more ruthless and that he didn’t want to see her and Jon get steamrolled by that.
Jaclyn’s reaction was heard in confessional: “It’s not the first time that Jon has returned from Exile and I’m like: Hold the phone, we are flipping the game. We are in the middle again and it’s so funny. I don’t know why this keeps happening.”
I’d say it keeps happening because neither Jon nor Jaclyn can make up their mind. She had just told us that the guys were fake so why does she suddenly want to go with them? I’d understand humoring them to eanr jury votes but to even consider flipping to them is ludicrous.
Huyopa – Day 28
The trio returned to camp.
Missy in interview: “My fear for Jaclyn was that Reed was going to bend her ear so it’s important to keep an eye out.” When Jaclyn got out of the shelter, Missy hugged her while her confessional continued: “I have to continue nurturing Jaclyn to make sure that she knows that she still got me because I think Reed works fast and who knows what Alec says.”
Jaclyn was sitting with Alec, asking him about Baylor wanting to know if they were like brother and sister or would he take her on a date. Alec said he wouldn’t date anyone on Survivor...unless Jaclyn would go on a date with him. That comment made Jaclyn laugh.
Alec in confessional: “Jaclyn is a cool chick. I like Jaclyn a lot. It was a smart move to make her feel as comfortable as we can. It doesn’t mean she is going to vote with us but it doesn’t hurt. It’s kind of like cream cheese.”
Natalie was observing the whole flirting scene between the two. She gave an interview: “Why is Jaclyn flirting with him? Jon has been gone two days and their body language is really inappropriate. If I had a boyfriend here, I wouldn’t be acting like that with Alec.”
The flirting continued in the shelter. Alec was inviting Jaclyn and Jon to come have a blast with him and Drew in Orlando.
Baylor in interview: “It definitely made me suspicious that Jaclyn was working more closely with Alec than I thought. My concern is that Jaclyn will be swayed by Alec. If Jaclyn is swayed then Jon is swayed because they do everything together so Jaclyn and Alec flirting and talking about the game is not OK.”
Is there a bit of jealousy peeking out under that layer of game talk?! I think the Baylor-Alec relationship is a hint about Missy’s chances to win the game. It’s not only the mom that is blinded by guys and the daughter still has things to learn.

Day 29 - The Immunity Challenge
We already had a challenge that involved balancing balls on a paddle so why do another one that was so similar. Keith won. Big surprise! It makes us wonder if it was planned especially when we consider that the next challenge also required having a steady hand. Do we have to ask why we haven’t seen any puzzles? I’m just guessing but it must not be Keith’s specialty. They say that all the challenges are planned before the season starts but I simply do not believe them. They certainly have some flexibility.
Reed had the dead-man walking confessional spot. He was hoping to take out Missy.
Huyopa – Day 29
The Howler monkey jumped once more from one tree to the other. Like Jon, he’s just showing off now.
Jaclyn gave us a confessional: “The options are: Go with Reed and vote out Missy and then there’s the option with Missy and our alliance to vote out Reed tonight. I will be telling Jon that...we are in the middle again and we have another big decision to make.”
Right then we saw Missy hugging Jon again, pretty much telling us how the vote would go.
Jaclyn and Jon walked out of camp so that she could tell him what happened after he left.
In confessional, Jon told us that all he wanted to do was spend time with Jaclyn because he missed her. When he told her that he already knew what she was saying, she erupted.
Reed came by to talk to them but Jon didn’t look like he wanted to listen to his BS. When Natalie came by, Jon winked at Reed as if he was lying when he said he didn’t trust him. Reed felt a little encouraged by the wink.
Jon next went to Missy and told her he found the idol. That made Missy happy.
For some reason, we saw Natalie standing alone in the waves. Will Jon’s idol drown her?
We then had this interesting confessional by Jaclyn: “After our argument, the only person that I would expect Jon to talk to would be Missy because he looks to his mom for advice in real life and, here, Missy has taken on that role on the island. It made me mad that he talked to her for half an hour and didn’t come talk to me at all.”
Ha! Mother-in-law problems! Jaclyn is not alone but in a game where trust is so valuable she should put that aside and use Missy to her advantage.
Natalie had a confessional where she said she wanted the couple to be fine because she didn’t want any surprises.
That’s when Jaclyn started with the silent treatment. It was presented like a challenge because we saw that 5 hours had elapsed and they were still not talking to each other.

In Samoa’s merge episode, we heard that the players were rushed out of camp and ordered to remain silent 10 minutes after Laura got Galu to consider Erik as the boot option. This time the editors were giving the players all the time needed to come up with an interesting TC but it was hopeless. That pointless fight was just a smoke screen to make us think that something could happen.
One person that wasn’t getting the silent treatment from Jaclyn was Alec and that made Jon even madder. While Jon was pissed, Reed was getting really frustrated.
Tribal Council Highlights.
Jeff was surprised to hear that Jon and Jaclyn had a fight.
Reed said that the fight made it more complicated for “those trying to play the game.”
Jeff realized that Jon and Jaclyn were once again in the middle.
Reed brought up Missy’s reward selection while Missy recalled Reed’s vote against Jon and Alec’s flirtation with Jaclyn. She said it was like joke, that it was obvious.
Baylor said that Jon and Jaclyn were lucky to be able to choose between alliances.
Missy said she was concerned that her choice could get her out of the game.
It was time to vote and we saw Missy voted against Reed calling him a “big rabble-rouser”.
Reed voted against Missy, saying: “This will likely be the only time I ever write your name down.”
In the end, everyone including Keith and Alec voted against Reed.
Jeff sent them back to camp with the message that they would have to deal with personal issues since there were still 4 Loved Ones in the game.
The Story
Since it would be pointless to analyze this episode without considering what we know about the next, I thought I’d look at Reed’s tactic in this episode and see where he went wrong. This whole episode tried to make us believe he had a chance but we saw that he wasn’t going at it smartly. His first mistake was to say that he preferred working with Jon and Jaclyn instead of Missy because it had to make Jon think that he preferred working with Missy over Reed. His biggest mistake however was in offering absolutely nothing to Jon. He was selling his alliance of three to replace the Natalie, Baylor and Missy trio. Why would ANYONE buy that? The tactic would have carried a lot more potential if Reed had tried to sell himself alone. Why go for it all at once? Reed tried to hit a homerun when all he had to do was get on base. Maybe he should have gone to the baseball reward to see what I mean. Reed should have said that Jon and Jaclyn’s problem was Natalie and that they needed to have someone else at Final 5. Instead of having Natalie, Baylor and Missy going together at the end, they should keep him to make sure they are in the Final Three. He should have thrown Keith or Alec under the bus for this vote instead of trying to protect both and then said they could use the other to get Natalie out at 7.
A Surprise... Well, Not Really
Night 29
Natalie said what I was thinking: Tribal Council was couples’ counseling (not actual Survivor). Missy was happy that everyone was on the same page for the vote while Jon was saying that he was sorry.
Jaclyn in confessional: “Jon and I resolved everything at Tribal which was pretty interesting.”
Alec’s exit was set up early when we heard him in confessional. He thought it was sick that he was called a flirt. He said it sucked to be alone.
Day 30
After Baylor was shown handling a fish, we heard a confessional from Jon: “I feel for Alec but I honestly don’t believe that Keith and Alec have any play left in the game.” To Alec, Jon was honest and said he trusted his alliance so that Alec wouldn’t be able to find a crack. His confessional continued: “I believe that I have found people who are trustworthy (Natalie was on screen as expected right then) and, unless I am reading everything wrong, which I haven’t yet, I am still controlling and steering the direction of the game.”
He must have forgotten the two Tribal Council in which he had no clue what was going on. It’s funny that he thinks he is controlling the game because Jaclyn and Missy have also had their hands on the steering wheel and Missy just saved him from a fatal crash. If he is at the wheel we have to say that his judgment is impaired: He is driving under the influence of ignorance.
The Reward Challenge
As soon as he heard the reward, Jon was determined: “I’m winning this” he said.
Then Jeff said that the challenge required concentration and balance and Alec immediately lost both. (Maybe he never had either!) It was interesting to note that while everyone placed one foot on top of the other, Baylor used sort of a stork posture, one leg bent with her left foot resting on her right knee. I thought she’d win this thing.
Missy was the second person out of the challenge and she was quickly followed by Keith.
Jeff’s words were interesting: “Not only are you trying to win reward but you are trying to build your case if you get to Final Tribal, show that you won something.”
Right then, the camera turned to the losers’ bench where Keith was the only who has built a case. Alec realized he didn’t even have that going for him.
Baylor was the next out and she was followed by Jon.
Jeff noted his big effort but that he came up short which sounded a lot like foreshadowing.
Jaclyn gave a good effort but a fly landed on her wrist and it seemed to disturb her. Natalie won
Natalie sent Alec to Exile Island and chose Jaclyn and Jon to accompany her in bed. She did however say: “No getting freaky tonight, guys.”
Missy was ready to leave but Jeff asked her about her feelings. Missy said it wouldn’t be fun because it would be in their faces.
Natalie in confessional: “I’ve been wanting to get Jon out ever since he voted out Jeremy so taking Jon and Jaclyn for the reward showed that I am such a loyal person and they will trust me even more. When I take my revenge, he won’t see it coming.”
Day 30
Survivor has very good home delivery: The bed was already in place when the tribe arrived. (Well, of course we didn’t see how long the staff had them walking around in circles but we aren’t supposed to know those things)
Jon in confessional: “Oh! My God! Something comfortable to lie on. But...you realize that we will be enjoying that while they are staring at us.”
When Keith, Missy and Baylor went to get water, Jon worried that something fishy could be going on. Natalie reassured him.
Jaclyn’s interview: “Missy, Baylor and Keith just left and I was like: What is going on? But Jon has had a very strong bond with Missy from the beginning so hopefully we can keep going with that and nothing crazy will happen.”
Natalie said that it was just paranoia, adding that they just had to stay with her.
Jon’s interview: “As we are approaching the end of this game, there are always chances for weird things to happen but I’ve grown to trust Missy a lot and the more I get to know Natalie, the more reassured I am of the strength of our alliance.”
Yes, this guy hasn’t been reading things wrong at all! Just then, as if to stress the point, Natalie was shown smiling behind Jon’s back.
After making a toast, we heard Natalie’s confessional: “Reward at this stage of the game is way more than getting to sleep in a bed and enjoying pasta... Everybody wants to get rid of Keith because Keith’s story and his connection to the jury is scary. But I want to blindside Jon, I want to get back at Jon for Jeremy. I don’t trust Jon in the long run. All I want is to move forward with a new plan and without Jon in it.”
While Natalie was threatening his future in the game, Jon was pouting about his empty glass of wine. Natalie said he could have hers.
Jon told us that we can call him a wine snob. His dad showed him how to taste wine. Jon explained but I will pass on the oenology.
Natalie told us in confessional that she doesn’t care for all the wine talk on Survivor. She did bring up that Jon was arrogant and felt entitled.
When it came to strategy, Jon admitted that Missy was like a mom to him. He went on and told Natalie that he found the idol.
A cymbal crash made it sound like a mistake.
Natalie’s interview: “Jon shouldn’t trust me but I am happy that he does. The fact that he told me that he found an idol on Exile is amazing because I’ve become like the best friend for him. Getting Jon out now is really important. I just have to figure out how to do all this and if I can pull it off, it will be amazing.”
Day 31
While Jon and Jaclyn were still in bed, Jaclyn saying that she was freaking out because she was stuck in the middle, Natalie was telling Baylor that Jon was so fake and that he was already thinking of spending the million. Natalie added that it was all about them and the perfect life they want as a couple. She even called him a little punk. After the confessional that is transcribed below, Natalie told Baylor that they needed to vote out Jon adding: “Don’t tell Missy because she’s not going to vote Jon out. Your mom is blinded by Jon.” Baylor agreed, adding that her mom is blinded by trying to help out men. Baylor thought that was the perfect plan and we then heard her confessional.
Natalie’s confessional: “Jon is very confident. He thinks it will be an easy cake walk for him to the final three because he’s got Missy around his finger, he thinks Baylor is not going to do anything to mess up her mom’s plans. He’s got his girlfriend wrapped around his finger and he thinks I’m going to do whatever he wants. The thing is that even if he is obnoxious, Jon has played a really good game so the more I’m thinking of the jury, why risk taking somebody like Jon because, if he wins, I would literally kill myself. ”
Maybe some jurors already think like Natalie.
Baylor’s confessional: “Me and Natalie, we are kind of like Survivor sisters at this point and we decided to get rid of Jon. Unfortunately, my mom, my closest alliance here, is aligned with him. Jon reminds me too much of past men in my mom’s life where she gets blindsided, heartbroken and hurt and I don’t want him to screw her over so it doesn’t make me feel bad voting him out.”
Natalie told Baylor that they had the votes with Keith and Alec. She said she had been sleeping with the enemy. Baylor found that funny.
After their night in the comfortable bed, Jaclyn and Jon found nothing better to do than go rest in the shelter. Like Jon, the howler monkey was also sleeping. Keith remarked that they hadn’t been awake for two hours the whole day. He told Missy, Natalie and Baylor that he couldn’t understand why they were keeping him around.
Being called lazy has been the kiss of death for many players over the years. Jon’s laziness was on full display and it rarely got worse than that: Getting out of bed only to go sleep in the shelter is inexcusable. It was worse than people coming back from enjoying a lot of food during and reward only to eat part of what they brought back for the others.
Keith’s interview: “I’m behind the 8-ball now and it pisses me off that Jon is just coasting. I have no stroke out here, I’m not the captain out here. That fivesome they got is tight and I’m still on the outside looking in. I feel like somebody is going to bolt here before long and hopefully they will bolt my way.”
Keith and the women gathered enough wood to make Butch proud. The sound of that cord of wood hitting the ground got Jon out of bed and he was impressed. Jaclyn hardly stirred but then she got up and proposed that they go get water. Jon’s confessional started as soon as they walked out of camp. During their walk, Jaclyn said that something was going on back there. She asked Jon if he trusted Natalie and when he said yes, she put it off as paranoia.
Jon’s interview: “Today, I got a really weird vibe from camp and it worried me because we are so close to the end a weird vibe can mean very bad things.”
Jaclyn’s confessional: “I’m worried that Keith is trying to sway Missy, Baylor and Natalie to probably vote out Jon. It makes me just so nervous that Jon thinks that he’s got it in the bag and that’s how we are in real life too. He gets super amped up for stuff and says he’s got it but, when it doesn’t happen, he gets super disappointed. I’m worried that if he is not careful, it could happen again.”
So now even Jon’s girlfriend is telling us that Jon isn’t winning because he thinks he has it in the bag. Jaclyn is worried right now but on Reunion night she will realize that it happened again.
Day 32 - The Immunity Challenge
Once more, we didn’t see the player that was on Exile Island. It was going to be Alec’s last episode so we should have had a moment with him like we should have heard from Wes earlier but since he really didn’t matter and there were no idols to find, we could forget about him right away.

Jeff asked Baylor about the mental state of the tribe. She said they were fatigued. Missy almost started to cry so Jeff asked her why. She said she was fine that it was the lack of sleep. Baylor said she wished she could give her some of her energy.
This exchange sets up the fall that Missy will take next week and makes us think she could be taken out by medical.

Keith was off to a great start so Jon looked over, wondering how he was doing it. However, Keith saw his blocks topple over a few times so that opened to door to the slow and steady Jon. We heard him praying for God to be with him. Jon won immunity. When he got a hug from Jaclyn, the camera turned to Natalie and Baylor who weren’t sharing the joy. Alec was clearly disappointed.
Natalie in confessional: “I wanted to get Jon out tonight but he won immunity so we have to come up with a plan B and fast because we have no plan B right now. I am feeling like now what do I do?”
Plan B should have been evident: Boot Jaclyn.
Huyopa
Jon’s interview: “Winning this immunity challenge felt incredible especially since, going into it, I had a few worries about my alliance. I’m sure I was only being paranoid but it’s a great feeling going into Tribal wearing the necklace. I don’t have to worry about anything going on tonight just focus on what we need to do... The plan is to get Keith out. He’s an incredible threat in all immunity challenges, he’s been right in the fight for every single one and he’s won two of them so he needs to go.”
According to Jon, they needed to split the votes just in case Alec or Keith had an idol. To the four women, Jon said they should put three votes on Keith. Natalie agreed.
Good grief!
Missy in confessional: “Jon wants to split the votes and that’s fine with me. Jon is my guy: He’s got my back (we had an image of Baylor rolling her eyes just then!) so our Fab Five is strong and we are sending Keith home.”
Missy is being fooled also but at least she didn’t say the usual: “Jon’s got my back and I got his”. I’m not saying she will betray Jon but the omission says that Missy is using Jon.
Taking a walk with Jaclyn, Natalie was told that she should vote for Keith along with the Michigan couple, leaving Baylor and Missy to vote against Alec.
Natalie in confessional: “Jon won immunity and I was so mad. It felt like everything I was doing for the last couple of days went down the drain. It makes me really depressed at this point.”
Natalie talked to Baylor who said she would have been on board for today. Natalie said: “Keith, stupid #####, I needed him to win.”
Baylor in confessional: “It completely sucks that Jon won immunity today. Natalie and I were banking on him not winning but now it’s back to the drawing board and it’s frustrating because there’s not much time left.”
I guess most viewers would look at those two and say: If you wanted to prevent Jon from winning immunity maybe you should have won it yourselves instead of blaming Keith for failing. This didn’t show the two conspirators in a very good light.
Back in the shelter, Alec was expressing his frustrations to Baylor. In confessional, he told us that he wasn’t going to give up. He was willing to lie and flirt with anyone.
Baylor said that she liked hearing “wisdom” and “true feelings” from Alec. Baylor’s confessional was placed here. After that, we heard Baylor tell Alec to be patient and to trust her.
Baylor’s confessional: “Alec, I don’t know. We have such an up and down relationship: Brother, sister, boyfriend, girlfriend weird kind of thing. Still, part of me is glad that he’s not going home tonight because I saw a different side of him that I didn’t see in this game and I liked it a lot.”
It's funny that Baylor thinks her mom is blinded by Jon while she falls so easily for Alec. We know that Jon is loyal to Missy but Alec JUST told us that he is willing to lie and flirt after earlier telling us that he wasn’t interested in anyone. Who is blind now? I definitely see that part of the season’s story is showing Baylor that her mom can make the right decisions.
Keith asked Natalie where he stood. She said the vote was between him and Alec, that she felt he deserved to stay but that it was scary to keep him because of his challenge strength compared to the useless Alec. Keith turned the discussion back to Jon who was once more shown resting in the shelter.
While we saw him spitting once more, we heard Keith’s confessional: “I was real close to getting the necklace again today and I can kick myself right now. I needed it. Everybody knows I needed it and it’s a bad feeling.”
Natalie, in confessional, told us that she could flip the game and the camera showed us that the thought made her smile.
That was great camera work, synchronizing Natalie’s confessional about finding a way to flip the game with the smile that appeared on her face when the idea probably popped in her head while she was talking to Keith. You could tell by the lip licking that she was enjoying the idea... but it was the wrong one! She was going to go after Alec instead of Jaclyn. Jaclyn was the obvious plan B but Natalie shied away from it because she wanted to keep Jon in the dark. Switching her vote from Keith to Alec will alert him also. It will be easier to explain but it didn’t accomplish anything except open the door for Keith.
That’s when Natalie told Keith not to worry about her, that she is smarter than she looks sometimes.
Natalie’s plan was explained in confessional: “Right now, me, Jon and Jaclyn are voting for Keith but if I flip and Keith and I both vote Alec then Alec would go home instead. That way, Keith is still here and he’ll be loyal to me and I can use him to blindside Jon. If I do this and betray Jon, it will be my biggest move yet. The only scary thing for me is dealing with everything when I come back to camp because Jon is going to be really pissed.”
Right then, the editors showed us Jon spearing a crab, showing us that it’s not a good idea to mess with him.
Natalie exposed her plan to Baylor, ending that short showmance.
Baylor in confessional: “Natalie wants to make big moves and I do as well but I don’t know if I want to get rid of Alec right now. It’s a huge risk because Jon could freak out and turn on us in a heartbeat.”
After Baylor told her she’d prefer to keep Alec, we heard Natalie say that she didn’t know if it was worth getting in trouble with her alliance. As the tribe walked to Tribal Council, we heard her confessional: “I have to decide if I have the balls or not.”
Tribal Council Highlights
Missy and Jon agreed that they had to look at who is strong in challenges so Jeff turned to Keith saying he was the obvious target.
That must not have felt good for Alec to hear that he is considered weaker than a 53 year old man.
Keith rightfully said that he won some challenges but that he wasn’t good at some other stuff.
Natalie said there was more to the vote, that it wasn’t as simple as being strong in challenges.
Jaclyn and Keith aren’t alone: Natalie can also say too much in TC. Jon was already on alert.
Just then, a rat appeared, scaring Natalie and Missy. Jeff wanted to use the rat to put the survival aspect of the game in perspective but Jon used the opportunity to talk about the reward, the wine glass and that his dad introduced him to wine. He then brought up his father’s cancer which was the first time we heard him telling the other players. Jon said that being out there showed what was really important and that winning immunity made him tear up because he knew his father would be proud. He went on to say that he regretted not having spent more time with his dad earlier in his life.
Jeff asked Keith if Jon’s tragedy could work against the others in the game.
Keith, not unlike Sandra, didn’t fall for the tears: “I guess all is fair in Survivor but I hope them 4 over there (the jury) are sharper than that. I’ll be over there soon...and I hope I’m sharper than that to see through some of this stuff.” Keith added that he had a vote and that they could use it to do something.
Jeff turned to Natalie (I wonder why!) and asked if it was time for someone to show the jury that “I came to play and I came to win.”
Natalie said everyone was looking out for themselves but that they were all on the same page and that there would be no surprises.
Only “Kieth” and Alec’s votes were shown (I miss the days of “Souna” and “Denver Diva”) and no one played an idol but there was a surprise!
The surprise didn’t escape Jeff who said: “Based on the reactions after the vote this tight alliance of five may not be so tight. Keith; that is good news for you.”
Natalie smiled in the direction of the jury when she grabbed her torch.
The Story
In a season where no one is dominating the game, we have been able to see all the players’ faults. Natalie was certainly the star for another episode but this felt a lot like an opportunity missed. Her Plan B was weak and now she has to count on keeping it a secret by probably telling Jon, Jaclyn and Missy that she got mixed up. The problem is that both Baylor and Keith know that it was planned so, while Baylor may keep it from her mom (daughters are good at that!) who believes that Keith won’t blurt it out somehow. Can you just picture him thanking Natalie in front of everyone for saving him! That would be hilarious and so fitting.
The Characters
Jaclyn: The princess is just as entitled and wishy-washy as her boyfriend. They are a lot like Sugar in Gabon. Twice the sugar isn’t good for our health.
Jon: Lazy, arrogant, self-entitled and blind to the events around him. I am sure that many will still hang on because of his story with his dad but I think we saw the conclusion of that story: Dad is already proud of his son because he gave a great effort, won some challenges and said he regretted all the wasted time. There really isn’t anything more to add to that story and we know that the jury is sharp enough not to fall for that drama. Jon will need God’s intervention to win and no, I don’t mean Burnett even if he has a god complex.
Baylor: Interestingly, Baylor got some very nice confessionals to talk about her strategy. Her main story this week though was worrying that her mom was blind to Jon and that he will break her heart but Jon and Jaclyn both said that Jon considers Missy like his island mom so he won’t turn on her. Baylor is the one that almost fell for a guy’s line, needing only to hear Alec’s pity story to want him to stay. Natalie’s plan put an end to Baylor’s attempts of making a move by using Alec so I wonder why she didn’t flip her vote also. If we go by Natalie’s words, it showed that Baylor doesn’t have the balls. The other players consider her a brat and think that she is lazy so there is no way she could win a jury vote.
Natalie: She has truly emerged as an important character but where was she before the last three episodes? Natalie’s plan to get rid of Jon has become an obsession and it appears that she has missed her opportunity. Now her plan depends on Keith and Baylor keeping it secret from Missy which seems highly unlikely. While many viewers are probably rooting for Natalie to win her battle against the entitled alpha male, I think it was telling that she criticized Jon’s appreciation for wine even after he explained that it connected him to his father. She saw arrogance where we saw an attachment to his dad. While we previously saw hints that Natalie would be able to eliminate Jon, we realized that it was just to create suspense for these episodes. Now the indications are that she will fail.
Keith: Now that he isn’t behind the 8-ball as much and that Natalie opened the door, Keith could very well win this game. He has been building his case for the jury because this 53 year old man is scaring some very fit players that are half his age. He also has a good connection with the jury. Keith, the fire captain, isn’t in charge here and that is good since this season seems to favor the Indians over the Chiefs. If Missy does have to leave the game, I think Keith will win but he has so many warts in his story, he has been clueless and ill-mannered so often that I don’t see an acceptable winner’s story. That doesn’t eliminate him though because no one really has an acceptable story.

Missy: There are so many questions regarding Missy’s edit. Were we to see her as arrogant when she laughed on her way to the reward? If so then that is a great sign for Keith even if Missy stays in the game. Did she lose a jury vote when she showed the finger to Reed? It was very interesting to hear Reed say that he will not be writing Missy’s name again. First of all, it tells us that Missy is unlikely to leave the game because she has to be in the Final 3 for Reed’s remark to mean anything. I even wonder if Reed doesn’t go back on his vow and actually votes for her. The same way, Natalie’s comment that going to the Final 3 with Baylor and Missy would be a sure win tells me that whoever is in the F3 with those two will get a big surprise...and a big disappointment. That player would be Jon who thinks he has it in the bag.

So, will it be Keith or Missy? We’ll know soon but it’s been a weird story either way.

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Tyrone Slothrop 13 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
12-07-14, 01:50 PM (EST)

113. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Thanks for this dual-episode commentary, Michel. Fully agree that it's a weird story in the unfolding, with a greater degree of uncertainty about who shall emerge victorious at the end that the recent spate of (excellent) seasons. With that said, I can't help but feel that Keith is going to be a Spencer figure—someone a large number of viewers may be rooting for and whose late term survival must be seen as a case of (impressively) surviving against the odds, but whose torch shall yet be snuffed ere the final two/three are determined. Natalie's possession of an idol should give her a reasonable certainty of making it to the final four (both couples almost certainly desiring to oust the Southern stalwart ere the vote-switching intriguer) but her fate totally depends on whether it is the Jon/Jaclyn or Missy/Baylor partnership that survived the finner tribal council. I also agree with you that Jon's potential for being the winner has been diminished by the harsh angles of his edit of the past several episodes; but if he at all plays his idol intelligently—and Missy is not, indeed, a medical casualty next week—then I have to say I like his chances of at least being given the opportunity to make his case before the jury.
Unfortunately, I find myself, as per usual, in the position of rooting for the two individuals—Natalie and Keith, in order of personal preference—whose road to the end seems the most precarious, particularly in that the former is addled by her desire for Jonnish vengeance, whilst the latter is hobbled by his lack of guile and cluelessness about the strategic aspects of the game beyond winning ball-balanced immunities and punctuation via copious expectoration. Still, with all of that said, I do like the unsettled nature of things as the finale cracks the televisual horizon. Last time out I was already giving Tony near 50/50 odds when there remained a half-dozen episodes to be played-out. Hopefully, the Wine and Whine will face stiff competition in their efforts to be jointly seated before the jury ere the crowning of Sole Survivor...

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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
12-08-14, 09:37 AM (EST)

114. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

"It was very interesting to hear Reed say that he will not be writing Missy’s name again. First of all, it tells us that Missy is unlikely to leave the game because she has to be in the Final 3 for Reed’s remark to mean anything."
At the time Reed made that remark he wouldn't have known if Missy was at F3 or not. So, since they generally show all the vote confessionals anyway, and most aren't meaningful, it really doesn't have to tell us anything about whether she is in F3.
Just to be argumentative, I'd say that Jac is a cut above Sugar in the survivor instincts department. She shows moments of clarity, for example, she was suspicious of Nat before Nat revealed her duplicity. Jac's problems (as I see it) come from her emotional reactions. Those have been emphasized by the editors, and I think they could be her downfall. Maybe another spat with Jon. Maybe she’ll accidentally sit in a pool of Keith’s spit.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-08-14, 05:58 PM (EST)

118. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-08-14 AT 05:59 PM (EST)
I'm glad you decided to join in, Kingfish.
While they show every vote at the end of the show, they only let us hear some of the voting comments. In that TC, we only heard Missy and Reed so they did choose to air Reed's words.
As for Jac, I was really only talking about her indecision. Since you bring up her emotioanl reactions, I'd say that's another good reason to compare the two.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
12-08-14, 12:00 PM (EST)

115. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-08-14 AT 12:08 PM (EST)
Great assessments, michel, but I don’t see things so black and white. The thing I love about editing is that it really allows for different takes from different people. And, as the tout's profess, it's really anybody's game...
The story:
Note we start with the Jeremy boot, which was the beginning of the revenge plot for Natalie. I suspect since this conflict was not resolved yet, we will see it alluded to again next week...
Eighth out, Jeremy, after Reed watched the majority alliance turn on one of their own, he saw an opportunity to flip the game...Reed convinced the minority alliance to split votes but really wanted to out Jon with Wes/Alec/Keith. But, at TC, nothing went right. Keith gave away their plan. (See Natalie telling Jon to play his idol.) Two idols were played and Keith’s son, Wes, was voted out. Eight are left, who will be voted out next?
As they come back to camp we see the tree sloth, I think of Keith, as we hear Keith...”Well, that was something else"...then we cut to Jon, “All I can do is thank God”, as we see Missy hugging him. Reminding us how close Missy and Jon are.
Keith (conf.): "TC was crazy. It did not go as we anticipated, and Wesley went home"...
Alec (conf): "I am pissed at Keith. He’s not very good at tribal. Now, I completely feel helpless. My alliance means nothing, we don’t have the numbers. I don’t trust Reed at all."
Reed to the guys: "They are over there plotting their revenge right now..."
Jon to Nat: "That was the best idol sniff out ever...Natalie."
Jon keeps saying that he was going to play it to Natalie and Jaclyn, so Nat has a conf: "Jon says that he was going to play it, but he wasn’t. He wants everyone to think that he’s the mastermind, but he’s not at all." **This is a funny confessional for me. Natalie calling out Jon for thinking that he’s the mastermind kind of infers that she is. But, I have a feeling that it’s not her either...
Cut to Jon and Jac on the beach with the secret scene, where Jon tells her not to give Natalie credit for something that was ultimately his choice. Alot of people think this was Jon being arrogant, but I didn’t take this scene badly at all. I took it as good communication to work together to find a means to an end. I took it as Jaclyn taking it the wrong way and not really hearing it for what it was. She was too caught up in her not getting credit, that she missed the gist of this talk. It was frustrating. I think it bode worse for Jaclyn than for Jon. I didn’t see it as malintentioned as some of the audience did.
It ends with the Jaclyn conf: “screw you, then I am going to the top three then!"
Regarding the Reward challenge: I have to say I was severely disappointed. Why doesn’t SEG force them to do the challenge, answer questions and not permit talking or collaborating. This is bar none one of my FAVORITE challenges all year and if done properly it is very telling. Shame on Jiffy for dropping the ball, imo. He is the one that lost control of it, imo. And, the questions they asked were easy and lame....let's get to the good stuff! Who is the laziest, who is the most annoying, who can keep the best secret, who is the biggest slob, etc....stuff like that.
We know that when they got down to 5 they discussed how it would play out and Jiffy stopped it right there. They chopped Reed, then Alec, then Keith. Reed called Baylor out for being a brat and Missy overreacted, imo. She needs to give it a rest, it’s almost embarrassing how she shields Baylor. (Will she fight so vehemently for her adopted son on the show, Jon?) She chose Natalie to join them, so Jac is left alone after she sends Jon to exile. What’s interesting is that in the last reward, Reed gave it up for Missy to go, and now this one Reed is not only eliminated first but then he’s called out by Missy. I think Missy is able to work on people with guilt and manipulation to get some of the things that she wants. Not bad skills for a Survivor player.
Keith told Jiffy that he saw it coming...."those three are really tight". Spelling it out. Keith makes many wise observations but everyone dismisses him. He's there but nobody pays attention...Jiffy asked them what just happened and Jaclyn sums it up: “Jon sacrificed for our alliance and I got the butt end, and the 3 top people just went off to go Horseback riding”....Reed and gang say, absolutely, Keith: "them three are tight."
Then in conf, Jaclyn: “It was very telling, Missy choose Natalie. Makes me think when it comes down to 5, she will choose Natalie. Makes me rethink everything...”
Cut to EI with Jon: EI day 27...excited to be back at EI, 2 idols were played so hopefully there will be a new clue...he reads it...having a lot of time on exile gives you a lot of time to think, people see me as the biggest threat so I am not going to stop till i find the idol...Sideways tree, dry trek at least twice a day...saw a bunch of sideways trees...FINDS it! Hear him laugh...twice baby, oh mannnnn! finding this idol is definitely going to help me with Jac and my future!
Jon tells us that he knows people see him as the biggest threat, so he finds the idol...he’ll use it to help himself and Jaclyn...but, it cannot be used on both of them?
Missy got the confessional about the day, seeing Nicauragua from another perspective, and how wonderful it is to share with her daughter, and Natalie, who is like a big sister to Baylor, and like a daughter to me forever!
Then we hear Nat talking to Baylor regarding Jac being such a princess and flipping...they are worried, but then Natalie tells MIssy that they found an idol. Missy is thrilled, but the first thing she asks is, why didn’t you tell me??? Then it’s she’s so proud of her daughter who is playing the game. Giving no credit to Nat.
Then Natalie proposes an F3 deal with Missy and Baylor. Nat in conf: “I will be a shoe in to win with them”, then hear Missy ask, “want another brownie?”
Natalie is apparently on top of the world. She has an idol, she has an F3 deal with 2 people that she can beat, there is no where to go but down. And, she is seemingly arrogant about it, dismissing Missy and Baylor completely. Not a good sign to me, for Natalie.
Then we come back to camp with the guys and Jaclyn. Jac in conf: Didn’t think it was smart to take Natalie, but recognizes that maybe she is just mad...but thinks it was dumb, not smart.
Reed notes it’s about making Jac happy right now, make her see the logic that Missy/Bay and Nat will go to F3 and take her and Jon out.
Jac recognizes that the boys are being nice and it’s fake, but she still wants to hear it...I loved that they gave her extra rice....pulling a “Missy”.
I didn’t catch what Reed said next in confessional but it waas something that ended with, it’s about trust, but Missy is more ruthless than Natalie...? Anyone catch that?
Jac has conf about Jon coming back from EI and her wanting to flip the game...they are in the middle, why does this keep happening?
Then we hear Missy, her fear was that Reed was going to bend her ear...as we see the girls come back...it’s important to keep an eye out...she needs to keep nurturing Jac bcause I think Reed works fast and who knows what Alec says....an astute observation and plan from Missy.
See Jac and Alec talking, then an Alec confessional...see Natalie say that they are flirting with each other...zoom in on Jac’s beautiful stomach...see them flirting more. Baylor conf, suspicious of Alec and Jac...cut to IC.
Balancing balls part II: Keith wins....again. Agreed, Reed got the confessional of death...my whole plan hinges on J/J...again. I could be a dead man walking.
Returning to camp we see the howler monkey leaping, signifying Jon. Jac tells us the options are to go with Missy and vote Reed, or go with Reed and vote out Missy.
Then the fight. I thought Jon was the rational one, once again. All he wanted to do was to come back and spend time with Jac and she wants to change it up. Why would Jon even consider going with Reed this week when he could have been toast at the hands of Reed last week, and let's face it, Reed is the most dangerous one there considering IC wins. I agree, I would never have considered it. But, Jon allowed Reed to talk to him, but as he started in runs Natalie...(I think on Missy’s mandate). Jon gives him the wink, but clearly that’s just an appeasement.
Then we have the scene where Jon is telling Missy about finding the Idol. We see Natalie alone going out in to the ocean...clearly significant. But, will Natalie be drowned by Missy and Jon, or is Natalie watching her back. Her isolation makes me think that it is the former.
I think this was planned, to send Jon to get the idol for them. He does and he tells her. They have a tight relationship, and time and again we see it. Jon told us he’s a momma’s boy, now Jaclyn does: Missy has taken the Mom role over from his real life.
The argument continues, Jon apologizes but she shuns him...Natalie tells us that “I want them fine at tonight, I can’t do anymore surprises at Tribal.” I loved this! Makes me think as CTGirl already noted that Natalie is going to be surprised at tribal AGAIN!
Jon apologizes again and still she snubs him...we have tc tonight and my GF refuses to talk to me, not a good time to do that!
Keith offers his sage advice: “You have alot to process, take a breather, she will be fine”, see her lying down, see Jon, then we have some weird sun shots....meant to signify the passage of time?
When Jac is ready to talk, Jon isn’t...Reed notes his plan hinges on J/J...cut to TC, Keith gives Wes a wink. Gives me hope for Keith.
Couples counseling...Jiffy finds that J/J are in the middle again, Jac admits that she was hurt that Missy chose Nat to go with them...paranoia in her head, Missy adds: That choice of choosing Nat could cost me...
Voting: Missy: You are a rebel rouser and btw, my child is not a brat!
Reed: Missy, this will be the only time I write your name down...
All votes for Reed, one for Missy. Cut to returning from TC at night....
Missy notes that it was the first time they were all on the same page!
Keith: "It was the first time tonight that he hardly even talked to me!"
Baylor conf: "Tribal was couples counseling"
Jon: "I’m sorry"
Jac:"I am too", they make up....finally.
Alec conf: "Tribal got heated, everyone says that I was flirting, if I wanted to flirt with these girls, I would...seeing all of these loved ones tighter, it him me tonight, it sucks." The placement of this confessional at the top of the episode is a bad sign for Alec. “I don’t have anyone to talk to after Tribal, don’t have much to hold on to but I am still holding’ on."
Next day see Alec telling Jon about it. Jon has a sympathetic conf: "I feel for Alec but I don’t believe that he or Keith have any play left, I do not see finding a crack and splitting us up"...he trusts them. "I really do." Uh-oh!
Continued: “I feel like they are trustworthy....and I feel like I am still controlling and steering the game.”
This is where I feel that Jon is naiive. This conf may have been chopped short and we didn’t hear the “but”. I can’t help but to feel it was doctored by the producers, fwiw.
Cut to the RC: Jon says, "I’m winning this!"
Alec is out, just like that, Jiffy telling them all late game advice: This (the game) requires concentration and balance, don’t let frustration set in, cannot let your concentration lapse, you have to EARN it.
Missy is out, Keith is out, Baylor is out, Jon is out, Nat and Jac, Jac loses, Nat wins. Survivor pushes you to go beyond comfort...
Sends Alec to EI, Nat invites Jaclyn and Jon. Missy notes it will be rubbed right in our faces and that’s the difference...This is all part of Nat’s plan to get Jon out, "be nice, take them, prove my loyalty then when I take my revenge, they will never see it coming!" Natalie is calculating!
Back from the reward and the bed is there...Jon notes that “something weird is going on over there”...as Missy/Baylor and Keith walk off...he’s observant. Jac says that she feels that Missy is pissed...
Jon with a telling conf: "As we are approaching the end of this game weird things can happen. I have trusted Missy, and the more time I spend with Nat, the more I think we have a good relationship too"...see them eating spaghetti, everyone is comfortable. Natalie: "They all want to send Keith, but I want to blindside Jon for Jeremy..."
Nat continues: Jon likes to drink wine. Jon notes: "It’s a memory of my dad, who taught me how to appreciate wine. It’s such a conversation peice...do a year in Las Vegas then do a year in Italy..."
Natalie continues: “Jon is always bringing up all this about wine, always pretending like he knows everything...it was torture.”
This is where I think Natalie sounds almost villainous. Jon talking about his interests that were fostered by his father and what he would like to do with this, and Natalie balks. She sounds self-centered, petty, and catty. (I realize this is the editing...she's made to sound that way?)
As Natalie says this we then cut to Jon being forthright with Natalie, saying, “we feel like we can trust you, and Missy is like a mom to me"....tells her he has the idol, found it on exile. Then Natalie continues: “It’s amazing, so I am like the Bff to him right now, if I can pull it off that will be amazing!”
Natalie is spinning a web and ready to exact her revenge.
At Huyopa day 31, we see the crabs, meaning it’s time to scurry...Natalie continues on with her whining and embellishing..."it was the worst experience of my life, he’s already banking about the million dollars, this is about the money, what it can do for them as a couple", to the others.
Nat in conf: he’s such..."even though he’s obnoxious, he’s played a really good game, if he wins, I would kill myself".... Hmmm, there is a possibility with this statement that it could be FORESHADOWING!
Nat tells Baylor that she wants to get rid of Jon, and Baylor notes, "My mom is aligned with him....so don’t tell your mom!"
Baylor in conf: Jon reminds me too much of men in her life where she gets blindsided...to Nat: "You, me, Keith, and Alec, I know they will vote for him, because they don’t like him"...see Bay and Nat laughing.
I think Baylor just told Natalie why they should keep Jon, “because they don’t like him...”
Keith notes that J/J have not been awake all day...”sleep all day and all night...pisses me off that Jon is just coasting...That fivesome they have is tight, hopefully someone will bolt, and hopefully they will bolt my way!” Clear foreshadowing.
Jon notes how much wood they got while he was sleeping...he then notes, “Today, I got a weird vibe at camp...a weird vibe can mean bad things...” Jac says do you really trust Nat? "I don’t.” Jon says, "yes". Jac is worried that Nat is trying to sway Keith and Alec to vote out Jon...”I am worried if he is not careful something could happen to really disappoint him...it’s happened before." Jac has his back. Foreshadowing for a Jon boot...
Cut to IC: Missy tears regarding feeling fatigued..., Baylor wishes she could give her some of her strength...all are struggling, get it together because immunity is back up for grabs...Jon, with the help of God wins immunity. When he wins, he points up to God, and we see Natalie, see Alec shaking his head...Natalie looks mad, Natalie conf: “I literally thought we could get Jon out tonight and he won immunity. And, we need to come up with another plan right now, because we have no plan. God, now what do I do?” Jon really got a highlighted immunity win, was it just to set up Nat’s plan as foiled or was there more to it?
I agree, I can’t believe they didn’t think to take out Jaclyn. Survivor 101, take out pairs...
Back at camp, another nod to Jon as we are greeted with the howler monkey. He’s still there.
Jon: "Winning the IC was absolutely indredible! Going in I had a few worrries about my alliance. Sure I was just a little paranoid, but, it’s a great feeling going into tribal having the necklace."
See Jon, Missy, Bay, and Nat...Jon says, “just in case one of them has the idol, let’s just split votes. Nat says: “Yeah, Three on Keith”. Jon continues in conf: “the plan is to get Keith out. He’s a threat to win IC's. He’s won two, he needs to go."
Missy in conf: “Jon is my guy! He’s got my back! Our fab five is strong now. We are sending Keith home. Jon wants to split votes, I am good with that." Missy is still in the dark, but what will happen when she's enlightened?
Then see Nat and Jaclyn walking together: Natalie asks her, If we split votes, how do we do it?"
Jaclyn: “Me, you, and Jon on Keith, and Missy/Baylor on Alec.
Natalie: Either way, I guess it’s good to throw votes toward Alec, not want him to feel too comfortable.”
This was shown to us specifically to show us that Natalie was indeed instructed on what to do at TC.
Natalie in conf: "Jon wins immunity and I was so mad. Feels like everything I was doing the last couple of days was just down the drain. Makes me depressed at this point."
Natalie and Baylor talking: Natalie: "I was bummed! I gave him reward just to blindside him."
Baylor: "I was down for it..."
Natalie: "I’m mad at Keith, needed him to win that. Stupid a$$ Keith!"
Natalie conf: "It completely sucks that Jon won IC. It’s frustrating because there is not that much time left."
Natalie confirms that this is priority number one for her, there is not much time left, and as it winds down, she's running out of opportunity...if she does't take advantage of the opportunity as it presents than she's toast. Jiffy told us the winner IS able to take advantage of the opportunities. Jeremy didn't win immunity, Jon blindsided him at once. Ever since Natalie told us she wanted to get revenge for Jeremy by bllindsiding Jon, she has had 2 missed opportunities...Reed won the IC and Wes went home, then Keith won IC and Reed went home. Now Jon won, and she is still waiting.
Another thing to point out with the hint from Jiffy is that in that statement he said something about voting according to opportunities that present and less on history. Jon disregarded his history with people to vote out Jeremy when the opportunity arose, but CAN he disregard history at the end and vote out someone trusted in his alliance? He will if he is going to win this game. Does sound like MISSY could qualify for both...jump on board with opportunity, and definitely disregard history when she needs to. Time will tell.
Then the scene with Alec lying with Baylor, he’s bummed, they are voting him out, he’s not giving uop...if he has to flirt, whatever he has to do...he is working Baylor now. Baylor says that she was getting wisdom from Alec, true feelings...
Baylor: "Alec and I have a weird relationship...brother/sister, bf/gf...I saw a different side of him and I like it alot. Still part of me is glad that he is not going home tonight...Baylor tells him to just be patient...trust me..."
Again, we are shown this scene to highlight that Natalie went rogue doing what SHE wanted to do. This could hurt her with Baylor later, as she didn't consider what Baylor wanted to do. It's also used to create doubt that Natalie wouldn't go through with it.
See a snake (aka Natalie), then hear Keith...then Natalie: I feel like you deserve to be here more than Alec, but you are scary in IC’s. Alec is useless. Keith: "I was real close today to getting an IC," spits. "Ya’ll are taking them to the end...take me out, take Alec, but eventually you have to take them out"...Keith is telling him you have to think about who you are taking to the end right now...so Natalie wants to get Alec out now, not Keith. "Jon will be pissed."
Nat is telling Baylor...
Then Baylor gets a conf: "Natalie wants to make big moves, I don’t know if I want to get rid of Alec right now...Alec will do whatever we say after this." Natalie is saying it’s about me deciding if I have the balls or not to go against Jon.
Nat spelled it out right there, It's about me...
Nat wants Keith to stay because he is better at winning IC’s than Jon, and she needs him to get out Jon.
At TC, Jiffy tells Missy it’s important who you vote out, who is the best at challenges, who is easier to beat...
Jon agrees
Jiffy points out that Keith is the biggest target then
Natalie says something, and there’s a snake. Natalie is now associated with the snake. She is being edited as the villain.
Then we see Jon give her a look, then a rat shows up...how perfect.
Jiffy reminds them that they live in the jungle.
Then Jon has a recount of the reward with the wine and relates the wine with his dying father. I thought, perhaps because I am a mother of young men like Jon, that Jon was caught up in the emotion of the long time away from his dying father and it was sincere. While it is a story that the others can get mad about, it seemed very sincere and timely to me....timely in that he had the nice wine with the reward, and it all came out. It was touching that Jaclyn is seen supporting him, with a touch, then a kiss. (Especially in this season of Bl v W).
Jiffy asks Keith, while your son is sitting over there, could his tragedy work for him? Keith wisely states that he hopes we are sharper than that, that we see through this... Then he makes a plea...”I have a vote here, if we want to do something here, use my vote to do something."
Wise ole Keith. But, is anyone listening?
Jiffy points that to Natalie....Nat, this is a big time to do something big...do something to win. She states, "no matter what alliance we are in, we are all on the same page tonight...
The vote, and Alec goes, and we clearly see by the looks of them that they are NOT all on the same page tonight. Jon says, “what the he!!”, Jiffy says, “based on the reactions of this group, this alliance of 5 may not be so tight”...see Natalie smiling, “good news for you, Keith”.
For me, it's a half a$$ed move that Natalie made. It not only is a tell for Jon, but for Missy and Baylor as well.
Now, I don’t see Jon as entitled or arrogant, I see a young guy who has a very positive outlook, who is clearly smitten with Jaclyn, trying to play this crazy, devious game. He is naiive, and he is trying to transition from college jock to young man and from boyfriend to fiance perhaps. Clearly, from the start he has been conflicted about his dying father, who he shares a connection with as he taught him to appreciate wine. All along he’s told us bits and peices about himself. First as an athlete, apparently seeming like a dumb jock, how he bonded with the other dumb jock. He had a rude awakening with the Drew vote, but clearly you could see that he wanted to go with the majority, as he voted as he thought Jeremy would. For Keith.
You can see how he’s been taken under Missy’s wing, and he’s developed a close bond with her. He told us when he told Natalie about his idol, that Missy is like a mom to him. She’s taken care of him, while he’s taking care of her. In this past episode, Jon told us about his relationship with his mother, he’s a momma’s boy. Jaclyn underlined the same sentiment and clearly sees Jon’s closeness with his mother figure on the island. I don’t get that Missy is going to betray Jon. Last week, she was not told about Natalie and Baylor aiming for Jon, but this week, it will be hard to manuever around her. Clearly it will come down to Missy who is the real question mark regarding her injury now. (I don't see Missy leaving at this point, fwiw.)
At this point in the game I am reminded of another Mother ~ Son type relationship that went far together in the game...Colby/Tina. And, who ended up on top of that one? Food for thought.
Seeing Natalie smack talk Jon when he seemingly is trying to work with her and being forthright with her to garner trust, makes Natalie come across as selfish, immature, and ruthless. AKA villainous. Just as the snake that is seen when she is around symbolizes. And, she apparently is becoming more and more focused on one thing, getting Jon out of the game, while she could be letting the win slip through her revengeful fingers. I always feel like it’s a bad thing to constantly force a plan to go through, when there are multiple options to the end. While she was stellar for a bit at taking the opportunities that presented in front of her, at this point I feel like she has missed those opportunities. I do think she is setting up nicely for a blindside herself.
Which, imo, pushes the remaining players one step closer to the prize.
I certainly could be way off, I don't know if Jon will win or not, that's not what I am declaring, but I do see him outlasting Natalie at this point. I still have a sense that Missy and Baylor will be part of the F3. Keith and Jon I think have the best chance of being the other member of that threesome. Which leaves Natalie and Jaclyn ripe for blindsiding.
Natalie could be a great winner, she's a real gamer. But, we've seen what's happened to the gamers in this season...

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
12-08-14, 05:26 PM (EST)

117. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Hello FP!
Jon tells her not to give Natalie credit for something that was ultimately his choice. Alot of people think this was Jon being arrogant, but I didn’t take this scene badly at all. I took it as good communication to work together to find a means to an end.
Jon may be one of those who can convince himself of anything if he says it enough but he was on the right track as far as relating the comment to jury management. He just tried to explain it to someone who takes things like that as a personal attack and misses the point of the comment entirely.
And, the questions they asked were easy and lame....let's get to the good stuff! Who is the laziest, who is the most annoying, who can keep the best secret, who is the biggest slob, etc....stuff like that.
Right on FP! Entirely too much nice going on especially with the bloody skulls, if the questions were more pointed it may have been a season highlight rather then another case of kum-by-yah.
I wonder if Jiffy pulled the plug just because he didn't want his pairs blowing prematurely over a challenge, I think he wants the fireworks in tribal with no distracting food rewards to slow the carnage down.
During the horse back reward didn't Natalie question Missy's choosing her to go rather then Jaclyn? Is Missy's concentration a little sluggish (not that I wouldn't be after 30 days of this game)? I don't remember Missy saying why she chose Natalie over Jacklyn or did I miss it?
I didn’t catch what Reed said next in confessional but it waas something that ended with, it’s about trust, but Missy is more ruthless than Natalie...? Anyone catch that? Nooo, but here it is...
I went back & found where Reed said that, they (Alec, Keith, Jaclyn & Reed) were eating the rice around the fire. Reed's confessional just prior to this campfire conversation was him talking about trying to convince Jaclyn that Missy, Baylor & Natalie were planning F3 and going to take out Jac & Jon and that he was hoping to capitalize making her realize this.
At the campfire he said: "Both Missy & Jon are threats to one another and I'm really curious to see who's gonna act first. I just feel like Missy's already acting, if you know what I mean and Jon is so loyal and it's about trust, which is true, (referring to Jon trusting Missy I believe)but Missy's more ruthless I just don't want you guys to get steamrolled by that, you know what I mean? Jaclyn says, "In that case I'd go with you." (Reed, Alec & Keith).
This comes right before her confessional about "flipping the game" and "We're in the middle again" comments.
And this is why I don't do ECST, I wouldn't get past the itro. LOL!
Clearly, Jaclyn is playing Survivor like she's backstage at a pageant all emotional and impulsive while Jon is trying to be rational and thoughtful. She's not easy to talk to once she's on a roll, she'd drive me insane with all the emotional gymnastics.
Oh carp, they're making me work. I'll finish up later, much more to chew on.
Great job FP, really enjoying you points today.

Corrupting teenage boys since, well,

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-08-14, 06:36 PM (EST)

120. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Excellent analysis FP and you are right, there usually are at least two ways to look at most scenes. That being said though, I'm surprised you didn't comment on Jon getting out of the King size bed only to go back to sleep in the shelter while the others went to work. That scene was very black and white: Jon is lazy. Not a good survivor sign.
Also, you wrote that you don't see Jon as entitled and arrogant but even Jaclyn said that he thinks he's got it in the bag and that he often does that. That jock mentality, believing that you can't be beaten, isn't the way to play this game.
I don't think Missy will betray Jon, I'm almost sure she'd boot Natalie before Jon. I think they have a deeper bond after playing the whole game together and going to two crucial TCs together but also because Missy sees Jon as someone that she can beat at the end.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
12-08-14, 10:00 PM (EST)

122. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-08-14 AT 10:23 PM (EST)
Suzzee! Loved to hear your take, and I agree with you totally! It's nice to hear that someone else took it as I did, and you were able to recount it so much better as well! And, thanks so much for going back to review that scene that I didn't catch. Reed was really so eloquent, a real gamer. It made so much sense when you go back and hear it as it's said.
During the horse back reward didn't Natalie question Missy's choosing her to go rather then Jaclyn? Is Missy's concentration a little sluggish (not that I wouldn't be after 30 days of this game)? I don't remember Missy saying why she chose Natalie over Jacklyn or did I miss it?
Regarding the above...no, I did not hear any explanation from Missy as to why she chose them...she did get a nice confessional about Natalie is like a big sister to Baylor and she'll always be like a daughter to me...blah blah...I also didn't get a question from Natalie, but she did thank her....thanks so much for choosing me...Boy, talk about sluggish, Alec almost looked like a zombie in the last few TC's he attended....he got down to the 140's...I think he literally was starving to death...OMG!
Love to hear your opinions!
Michel, you are right, I did skip over the lazy Jon part, d'oh. Clearly, what was up with that....no wonder he got a "weird vibe" from everyone else that day, lol!
I agree with you, I am thinking that Missy won't betray him either. She's already told us she wants to go to F3 with him....he's bulldozed his way through them all...
michel, I have no idea how this season is going to pan out...there are so many enigmas, I am clueless. I am known for misreading editing, but I love that it's in the eye of the beholder and there is no right or wrong... I think there is so much manipulation this season and I don't know where it is leading...
I have to ask you, Michel, to go back and reexamine those manipulated scenes, if you get a chance. I would love to hear your thoughts. The one where I posted the link to Goldd in Mess Hall. here. I know it's possible that Missy has made her hair up like it was the other day, but to me, it does look as though those pics are from episode 10, after the IC, where Wes stepped down and then was later booted.
What's interesting is that there is a press image that appears that it is from that episode 10 as well....
Here are the ones we think are from ep 10:

And, here is the press image:
First of all, we could be wrong, could they be new scenes? But, we know that they often manipulate vidcaps...but I have never noted it with press images...they are time stamped?
Would love your 2 cents on this kind of manipulation. And, the fact that they are manipulating so much makes me think to hide that it will be boring, OR, to lead us down the wrong path...
So much manipulation this season, Ex: Reed took credit for orchestrating the Jeremy boot, when the editing gave Jon the credit. Why? To make him a deserving winner, or what?
Would love for you to weigh in on all of this! Thanks so much!

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-08-14, 10:33 PM (EST)

123. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

I don't know if I can make sense of these pictures. We know that M/B/N made a Final 3 deal on the episode 11 Reward so it's very possible that they talked about booting Jon the day before just as a discussion point. Natalie could have brought it up like a women vs men thing, saying that Jon would be a challenge threat for them. I feel Missy would have shot the idea down, saying that Reed, Wes and Keith had to go before Jon. Maybe that's why Baylor and Nat didn't want to talk about their plan to Missy during episode 12.
As for Reed taking credit for Jeremy's boot, I have one word for that: Spin.
As for crediting Jon, I have to ask, was it credit or blame? Will it help Jon in the end or will it be a reason why he loses the vote?

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
12-08-14, 11:33 PM (EST)

126. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 03:33 AM (EST)
I wonder if Natalie asked the obvious of Baylor and Jaclyn (both of whom see themselves as wiser than their loved one) - 'So long as Missy and Jon are still in the Game, neither of you will win it. And, perhaps, neither will either of them. So, who do you want to have that opportunity? You? Or your partner?' - how each of the young women would answer.
I've been thinking about the question because this portion of JP's original assessment of the Baylor | Missy partnership keeps skipping about in my head: "If the only way you can move forward is by getting rid of your child, can you do it? Or do you just fall down on the sword and say, I just can't do it?"
As does this exchange (that resurrects the 'better to be single or partnered' debate) from one of this Episode's previews:
JP: Survivor is a tricky game.
Keith (camera confessional): I've made it through this game without somebody solid with me.
JP: It can lull you into believing things that aren't real...
Jon (camera confessional): I honestly trust my alliance.
Note: Unless Keith qualified that statement, I can't think that Wes was/will be too pleased to hear it.
Note: If I were you, I’d begin a second thread …
G

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
12-09-14, 01:53 AM (EST)

127. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

I've been thinking about the question because this portion of JP's original assessment of the Baylor | Missy partnership keeps skipping about in my head: "If the only way you can move forward is by getting rid of your child, can you do it? Or do you just fall down on the sword and say, I just can't do it?"
Georganna, in which thread was this quote posted originally? I remembered it the other day but now I can't find it.

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
12-09-14, 02:34 AM (EST)

128. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 03:35 AM (EST)
Brownroach ...
JP's description of each couple (and his initial impressions of the Season) are contained in this TV Guide piece.
Flowerpower posted the link to the article and several quotes from it in this post to Episode Five's Title, Tweets and Teases thread.
And I posted several of the partnership descriptions in the Signs of Survival thread (mislabeling their source as an EW article).
G

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
12-09-14, 02:42 AM (EST)

129. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Thanks, G!
(Okay, I think we will need better indexing for Jeff Probst's ruminations next season. Not that they often mean anything. But we used to keep them all in one thread so they would be easy to find.)

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
12-08-14, 03:03 PM (EST)

116. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

I'm just going to comment as I read so don't expect any coherency in my thoughts but before I get going let me tell you you're doing some excellent work on these assessments!
Jeff asked them who had a twin besides Natalie. Everyone knew it was Jeremy except Keith who was probably fantasizing about seeing Jaclyn with a twin.
LOL, too funny Michel, probably more accurate than I want to dwell on.
Missy is keeping Jon close, I'm not sure if she's more comfortable with a man around, if he's a shield or if she knows she can run circles around him in FTC. I'm betting the latter and if I don't miss my guess she knows she needs Jaclyn gone soon. She doesn't want competition when it comes to telling Jon what he should be doing.
I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the booting Jaclyn as Plan B wasn't something Natalie considered, the absence of even a passing consideration was more telling to me then if it was discussed. My guess is that Baylor wouldn't go with that due to Missy's influence. Missy doesn't want her pocket team of J & J to weaken before Keith or Natalie are gone. She can control both of them much easier then one of them alone. Natalie may have found she lost Baylor's vote in that case and backed off the "B" plan.

I can only hope you're right on Jon falling short in the end. He is the luckiest guy on the beach IMO, right place, right circumstances and somehow just happening to be able to find idols like they're falling from trees. I look forward to a thorough grilling at FTC where I have a feeling his luck will run out if he makes it to F3.
I think Jiffy is doing a yippie yah hoo dance just waiting for one of the pairs to be sent to Ponderosa, that is going to be fireworks especially if it's Baylor that goes first.
Reed should have said that Jon and Jaclyn’s problem was Natalie and that they needed to have someone else at Final 5.
Excellent point Michel!
2nd hour...
If he is at the wheel we have to say that his judgment is impaired: He is driving under the influence of ignorance.
>snicker< good one...
What an awesome read my friend! Yes, it has been a weird story!
Looking forward to the rest of the season.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-08-14, 06:26 PM (EST)

119. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Thank you, Suzzee. At least someone appreciates my attempts to be funny!
I really believe that Jon's story is over now that he made his father proud but FP sees it differently and she isn't alone. We'll see how it turns out but i do feel Jon will get thouroughly grilled at FTC.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
12-08-14, 07:25 PM (EST)

121. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-08-14 AT 07:31 PM (EST)
Great analysis as usual. I agree with you that Missy's edit is very confusing in a lot of ways, which is giving me pause. I remarked earlier that I was wondering if Missy was going to become our villain (because of Baylor) but then they backed off of that stuff again. But now Missy's mothering has popped up again, and it makes her look bad.
I think, if Missy doesn't win, I don't think Keith is the answer, however. I mean, I can kind of see it in a lot of ways, but they have gone way too far out of their way to show Keith being a Dumb Player. They didn't necessarily have to show Keith and Jeremy's falling out pre-merge (and it just made Keith look dumb). They didn't necessarily have underline the "Stick to the plan" moment (although they probably had to show it). If Keith is our winner, I think our closest parallel would be someone like Bob or maybe even Fabio, the likable non-schemer who won because they are likable. But neither of those edits even make much sense for Keith, as he hasn't had many Fabio-esque "This hillbilly is smarter than they think" confessionals. To me, Keith feels like someone we're supposed to be happy he goes super-far but okay when he doesn't make Final 3.
I think Natalie's edit reminds me a lot of Sophie's edit in a lot of ways. I remember during South Pacific feeling like, "I really like Sophie, I wish they would show her more" and remember a lot of other people ranking her fairly favorably at the time too... Even though all she ever did in each episode was diss Brandon and make general strategic observations. Looking back on it, I think they hid Sophie a little because the editors weren't sure how people would take her dryness and worried she would come off as too abrasive.
I think, with Natalie being a Twinnie, they're taking a similar stance. Step off the gas just a little, so we don't get overloaded by her Twinnie-ness. They can't let her have a dominant Kim or Boston Rob edit because 1) that's not how her game shook out, and 2) they would risk us getting tired of her. Just let her guide public opinion during the episodes and that's it. She disappeared a little around the merge (like Sophie) but emerged a little later. Her condemnation of Jon's personality in this past episode reminded me a lot of Sophie's criticism of Cochran at the beginning of his boot episode. It was like, "Oh, we're not suppose to like Jon now?" for me. It's always interesting who they pick to sway public opinion.
Even though I hated the Twinnies coming into this season, and didn't want them to be cast, I suddenly find myself rooting for Natalie. Which is something I find very, very suspicious.
The only knock against Natalie fitting the Sophie mold is that there isn't an Albert character for Natalie to kick around and demonstrate why she's superior. My gut is still saying Natalie doesn't win, but I can contextualize how her editing makes sense now. Downplay the character who could look controversial to people.
The Jon thing is a bit of a mess in general and is so up and down, I think dismissing him and/or crowning him would both be legitimate conclusions. The Natalie and wine scenes were indeed meant to knock Jon down quite a bit in our eyes... But they ended up giving him the final word during Tribal Council! It was like a presidential candidate flubbing a question but closing strongly. The whole episode I was thinking, "Jon sure is being a tool now" but when he started linking the wine thing to his dad at TC, I was like, "How can I stay mad at that guy?"
I don't know if Jon wins or not but I really like that they've given him a more three-dimensional edit than the usual Survivor contestant. I'm wondering if they thought about Tony's characterization, and how people were really talking about his win afterwards... You know, about how flawed he is as a player or the mistakes he made.
Maybe we've moved past the golden Greek god days of Survivor winners (see: Rob, Boston) and they want to present someone more fallible?

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-08-14, 10:43 PM (EST)

124. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Yes, I'm getting a little less worried about Keith now that I have more time to look at his overall story. He reminds me a bit of Tarzan in One World. It's just that he has so many lucid comments that it scares me a little.
When you talk about an Amazing Racer, I have to listen. I think Sophie was hidden in So Pathetic because she really was a brat like Ozzy said. It's only when she admitted it that she connected to the jury and, by ricochet, to the audience. Someone at RHAP compared Natalie's story to Hayden's, another CBS reality star and I have to admit that the comparison is very good. Both were minor characters for most of the season (even if Hayden had a few more confessionals ) and they both had huge increase in airtime in the later stages. That spike led Hayden to Loser lodge so will it be the same for Natalie? I think so.
Jon's laziness rules him out for me but maybe it was shown only because it becomes a big thing at the FTC. Jon could get grilled about his laziness so the editors would have needed to show it but if Jon can handle those hard questions, maybe he could still get the votes. I doubt it but I've been wrong before.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
12-08-14, 11:17 PM (EST)

125. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-08-14 AT 11:23 PM (EST)
When you talk about an Amazing Racer, I have to listen. I think Sophie was hidden in So Pathetic because she really was a brat like Ozzy said. It's only when she admitted it that she connected to the jury and, by ricochet, to the audience. Someone at RHAP compared Natalie's story to Hayden's, another CBS reality star and I have to admit that the comparison is very good. Both were minor characters for most of the season (even if Hayden had a few more confessionals ) and they both had huge increase in airtime in the later stages. That spike led Hayden to Loser lodge so will it be the same for Natalie? I think so.
I think some of it was Sophie's stand-offishness (although Ozzy is a horrible source for character judgment), but I think some of it was how harsh her tongue could be. From listening to her RHAP appearances, I imagine she was quite brutal in her confessionals... Even more brutal than calling Albert "disgusting." If Coach had won, I imagine we would've seen more of a Palau Katie or China Courtney edit. I think, when thinking about all the different kinds of Natalie edits we could have gotten, we have definitely gotten one of the most positive and upbeat ones. Maybe there actually is nothing to it and she was just popular, well-liked, and there was no bad side to be seen. But it's just weird.
You have a shrill Amazing Racer who alienates a decent portion of the audience who, let's assume, doesn't win. What's the deal? Where is my annoying Twinnie nonsense that I demand/torture myself with?
The Hayden comparison is a good one, although their spikes are happening in slightly different situations. Hayden was a behind the 8-ball when he worked Ciera, whereas Natalie's stuff with Missy/Baylor is in the dominant alliance. I would also argue that Hayden's a little more stable in terms of his possible edits... He could play 10 times and end up edited the same way, I bet. But still. Hayden was kind of trendy around that time and so it Natalie right now.
Since they basically gave us the "Final 3" of Baylor/Missy/Natalie, makes you wonder if Natalie is going to become another Josh, huh?
Jon's laziness rules him out for me but maybe it was shown only because it becomes a big thing at the FTC. Jon could get grilled about his laziness so the editors would have needed to show it but if Jon can handle those hard questions, maybe he could still get the votes. I doubt it but I've been wrong before.
I think the next episode in particular is going to be very telling for Jon. These were the first particularly dodgy episodes for Jon from an editing perspective. If they drop the lazy stuff, I'm willing to chalk it up as a "Tyson eats during the challenge" moment. If it continues... Yeah, it's going to be a thing.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
12-09-14, 12:40 PM (EST)

130. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 12:55 PM (EST)
Loving these discussions in here everyone!
First of all: YES, Georgianna, YES! That assessment of Jiffy's really doesn't fit with what we think is going down here. It just seems that Missy and Baylor are locks for F3, and if they are, they don't need to consider sacrificing one for the other....so, are we off? Will Missy fall on the sword for Baylor to get to F3, and for that to happen, how does it happen?
Here is a scenario, and it could be arrived at in different ways, I get that. But, say tomorrow night that Jon(or gives his to Jac who plays it) plays his Hii, but Natalie doesn't and gets blindsided. (Or, Nat plays hers and Jon doesn't...whatever) Since the last time to play the HII is F5, there would be another one hidden on exile, so the person that goes, could find it.
Then, 2 peeps would play HII's and one person has an IN, leaving the bootee choice as one or the other remaining daws. These 2 peeps could be Missy and Baylor. Will Missy sacrifice herself for Baylor in that scenario?
Something to consider...
Then Jims.. I think, when thinking about all the different kinds of Natalie edits we could have gotten, we have definitely gotten one of the most positive and upbeat ones. Maybe there actually is nothing to it and she was just popular, well-liked, and there was no bad side to be seen. But it's just weird.
You have a shrill Amazing Racer who alienates a decent portion of the audience who, let's assume, doesn't win. What's the deal? Where is my annoying Twinnie nonsense that I demand/torture myself with?
The Hayden comparison is a good one, although their spikes are happening in slightly different situations. Hayden was a behind the 8-ball when he worked Ciera, whereas Natalie's stuff with Missy/Baylor is in the dominant alliance. I would also argue that Hayden's a little more stable in terms of his possible edits... He could play 10 times and end up edited the same way, I bet. But still. Hayden was kind of trendy around that time and so it Natalie right now.
A lot of comparisons here. I agree Hayden and Natalie are 2 reality stars now playing Survivor. Both are indeed smart players, clearly. They both were relatively hidden in confessionals and had a late spike...But, the big difference here is that Hayden was not edited as a villain. Clearly the snake,
...represents Natalie. She's a villain, and the editing makes her one by associating her with that snake. The snake, symbolizing Natalie, appeared in the last episode as well, highlighting Natalie. Hayden was never edited as a villain, more like the underdog (as you noted a member of the minority alliance), and Survivor loves underdogs. Natalie has gone from underdog to villain....If Natalie is the villain, then she is opposed to the hero. While Hayden was opposed to the winner....Whoever slays the villain may win the game. I frankly think that Missy will do it. Jon is recently seen as lazy, agreed, especially at a time in the game, the end, where he should be on high alert. Not a positive sign. But, as some people have noted, he's a bit of a tool. Jon will not have anything to do with this blindside, I think it is going to fall to Missy, and it is a way that she could spin a win, imo. Natalie is seen as a great player here, well liked by the guys....so whoever takes her out, if she is taken out, will win the game. If she's not taken out, she will win the game. Missy. Food for thought.
ETA: regarding Jon. His edit has been heavily manipulated, in his FAVOR. Re: the Jeremy boot. And, in opposition to the player and well liked contestant, Natalie. I have to ask myself why? Is he being edited as a tool to the end of the game for someone else, OR, is he being edited favorably as the winner? I don't know.
If Natalie were blindsided this episode, and Missy falls short on her sword for Baylor next week, that would leave Jon/Jac/Keith/Baylor for F4...Jac out at F4 or Keith? Baylor/Jon/Jac - Keith for F3???
Just stretching here? Are Jon and Jac hated enough to make Baylor a winner? I don't know? Most have said she cannot win....Jon winner? I don't know....If Missy goes for the win and Baylor is out at F5, Missy win?
Lots of possibilities to consider....

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
12-09-14, 09:20 PM (EST)

131. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 09:21 PM (EST)
The problem with Natalie as the villain is that, aside from a few nature shots, they haven't really shown anything about her that should make us hate her. The snake is some cute symbolism but it generally has to be supported by confessionals of either 1) Natalie being a jerk or 2) people like Missy or Baylor talking about how untrustworthy she is.
If Natalie is the villain, they would've shown how wonderful and what a complete non-tool Jon was. Instead, they support her observation by giving Jon a bunch of confessionals where he goes on and on about wine. They're basically telling us, hey, Natalie is probably right about Jon.
If Natalie is supposed to be the villain to the hero Missy, they haven't made Missy sympathetic enough to make it seem that way. If I'm supposed to feel, "Poor Missy, Natalie is scheming behind her back," the editors are doing a horrible job at it. I feel kind of bad that she's put in the awkward spot of defending her parenting, but that has very little to do with Natalie.
I would say the snake represents more of a general schemer in Natalie's case, rather than a full-blown villain. I guess we could argue that, using the snake imagery, they're trying to force a negative edit on Natalie when they couldn't construct one in the confessionals... But even if so, it's a rather clumsy way to go about it. Why resort to using snake imagery when Natalie vilified herself on every turn of The Amazing Race? Was she really that pristine and pure on the island?
Or maybe CBS is just treating their cross-over contestants with kid gloves these days.
(Whitney/Keith on TAR being the exception.)

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 10:25 PM (EST)

132. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

> the editors are
>doing a horrible job at
>it.
Well, consider that casting made a mistake of sending a couple that wasn't fit to play and had to be removed from the game before it began. Then Jeff lost control of the coconut challenge RC when he ended it instead of ordering them to shut up. Add to it the marketing department using a promo that applied to the first version of Blood versus Water. Why would be surprised that the editors are doing a horrible job? There's a reason we were once known as Survivor Blows!
Strangely, by being so inconsistent with their story, they have made it harder to predict the end game which isn't a bad thing. I've never seen a season where there are so many posters sopporting so many different players this late. Natalie, Jon and Keith have widespread support while Missy, Baylor and Jaclyn also have people behind them.
I wonder if Pepe is still on board with Missy.
>(Whitney/Keith on TAR being the exception.)
>
I missed most of the episodes but could they have been worse than those Dentists?

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 10:34 PM (EST)

133. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Yeah, I suppose I shouldn't complain and say they're doing a bad job at editing toward whatever story they're trying to tell... From an editing perspective, I'd much rather have this than the One World editing. Makes the season a little muddled in its storytelling but at least it's not super-super-predictable.
I missed most of the episodes but could they have been worse than those Dentists?
Alas, they were the annoying bickering couple on the race. Whitney got on Keith's case a lot. The dentists' edit was more of a mixed bag, actually. Started off really intense and annoying but softened a little over time.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 10:56 PM (EST)

134. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Yeah, I suppose I shouldn't complain and say they're doing a bad job at editing toward whatever story they're trying to tell
This made me laugh, because I think they frequently do a bad job at editing the story they are trying to tell. And often they deliberately obfuscate what should be the winning (but apparently by their standards, dull) story. So, we really have our work cut out for us every time!

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 11:08 PM (EST)

135. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 11:11 PM (EST)
>I wonder if Pepe is still on board with Missy.
To tell you the truth, I do not remember a season where the editing has changed so much from episode to episode, and I'm no longer confident who's going to be in the F3 (Baylor is about a big of a lock as anyone to make it there, though I don't see how she'd win), let alone who's going to win. Missy has continued to be presented as a major player who has had her footprints pretty much everywhere, but like everyone else, she's had plenty of warts being shown. It's going to be one of those seasons where it's anybody's game and still enough time for the editing to take a turn or two to push up a contestant firmly into the favourite's spot by the time the final TC rolls around.
I like the viewpoint that Natalie is getting a sort-of Sophiesque edit - she's about as viable as anyone (and at this point, perhaps the most deserving with the game-play and risks she's taken) to be the winner, but unlike Sophie, Natalie has been a little more in-your-face with her strategy and has been shown making moves.
Then again, Jon and Missy both have also been shown making strategic moves, even if they weren't always successful. I still don't see Jon as a winner but anything's possible with this editing team.
Buckle up your seatbelts and enjoy the ride to the final jury, is all I'd say at this point... I'm enjoying this season as the unpredictableness makes the viewing that much more compelling for me.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
12-10-14, 00:43 AM (EST)

137. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

I couldn't agree more, Pepe. Remember in addition to the editing, in spoiling we take every crumb that falls on our plate. Jiffy, with his pre-game interviews, blah, blah. Hard to commit to one winner. As Veruca used to say, the editing tells you the end gamers, and clearly, michel, you have nailed them all. It really will be anyone's game at this point. After this next episode the writing should be on the wall!
I am not discounting Missy by any means!!! Just wasn't ready to discount Jon either...:-P
I have to say, I thought this season got off to a slower start, but ever since the merge it's been great fun. I have REALLY enjoyed this season for it's unpredictability. And, Jiffy did tell us that right from the start. I will take a season like this ANY day! The TC where they tried to blindside Jon and Wes went home was really one of the best I can recall in a long time!
I would be tickled if Natalie won, she's clearly a serious player and has what it takes....the snake, probably just represents that she's plotting and scheming and is going to make a move to take out Jon. (Surprise, surprise) AS if we don't know that already!
Buckle up your seatbelts and enjoy the ride to the final jury, is all I'd say at this point... I'm enjoying this season as the unpredictableness makes the viewing that much more compelling for me.
AGREED!!!

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
12-10-14, 06:12 PM (EST)

138. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Thank you for the words of wisdom, Pepe. I was disappointed with Sophie's win (but then again that whole season was So Pathetic) but I would be happy with Natalie winning. She did more than keep the ship on course, she navigated through some choppy seas.
FP, you are right that the end game players are really what it's all about and, for that, I remember saying that the women would take over as far back as Drew's exit. It didn't look good then but only 1 woman has been voted out since and they are now up 4-2. Not a bad turnaround but will they let it slip between their fingers like the women of Yasur? It would be a shame.

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Sheldor 4681 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-14, 07:21 PM (EST)

139. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

michel I love your editing analysis and yes AMAZING that there is now 4 women and only 2 men with 5 men sitting on the jury!
It seems to me that female winning seasons have strange edits compared to male dominant edit winning seasons like we've had lately with Tony, Tyson, and Cochran (and before that Boston Rob) where it was totally obvious those 3 would win. Jon winning would be consistent with his huge lead in confessionals but a woman winning could be practically any of the 4 with this strange edit.
"I was disappointed with Sophie's win"
Looking back to what you said about Sophie is interesting:
Sophie: We continued to see the calm and observant Sophie except calm and observant can be easily confused for cold-blooded and calculating. Maybe it was a coincidence that we heard 16 blows when Cochran mentioned the Sharon Tate murder but it does seem like something the editors planned.
Sophie’s main problem is that now she is on record as saying that nothing will happen in the game. If she is right then that means she will have won this game much too easily. I can’t believe that is the message of the season. The editors would want us to see that the winner had to fight for it. Sophie told us she doesn’t have to.
And in a later reply you wrote:
Sophie's support isn't based on her story because she has always been the narrator, not the actor. Her confessionals could be seen as portraying a clinical player but, as you said, many clips could have supported that story if that was the intent of her edit. Instead of clinical, I see her as cold and heartless.
If Sophie were to win, she would be the winner that would have done the absolute least to deserve the title:
- She was in no way responsible for building the alliance; she just happened to go to bed late on the first night.
- She did nothing to help Upolu win a single challenge.
- We very rarely see her working in camp (Edna has been working much, much more)
- She did nothing to flip the game at the merge.
- No one talks about her. We almost never heard any positive comments about her. Jim said Sophie wasn't drinking Coach's Kool-Aid but Jim has always been wrong and her voting decisions prove that he was that time also.
- She went through a boring pagongoing; smooth sailing to F6.
- We know she is inside the core 3 so we don't even have doubts about her failing to make the F3.
I cannot believe the editors would show us a winner having such an easy time. No danger, no doubt... That has never spelled winner. It is so easy to create doubt that I cannot believe we wouldn't have been served something.
The only way a win by Sophie would feel satisfying is if she were to single-handedly beat Ozzy at F4. Maybe after an epic 12 hour endurance challenge, he falls off leaving her alone standing in victory. I'd still feel that we had been cheated from a good story (Why treat our winner like Brett v2.0?) but that is what she needs.
And sure enough Sophie beat Ozzy at the F4 Immunity Challenge and won the game. So if we have another similar edit to South Pacific, what hidden woman would defeat say Jon at the F4 Immunity Challenge and win the jury votes?
Gee if you review those bullet points about Sophie they sound a lot like Baylor!
If Baylor were to win, she would be the winner that would have done the absolute least to deserve the title:
- She was in no way responsible for building the alliance;
- She did nothing to help Coyopa win a single challenge.
- We very rarely see her working in camp (Missy has been working much, much more)
- She did nothing to flip the game at the merge.
- No one talks about her. We almost never heard any positive comments about her.
- She went through a boring pagongoing; smooth sailing to F6.
- We know she is inside the core 3 so we don't even have doubts about her failing to make the F3.
Food for thought! Also Baylor, like Sophie, has been the narrator for most of the season too.

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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
12-10-14, 07:51 PM (EST)

140. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-10-14 AT 07:59 PM (EST)
Not to go on a tangent (although this is my fault for comparing Natalie to Sophie), but I am always amused at how much me and michel see Sophie's win and South Pacific differently. Even though it was a straight Pagonging, the presence of Albert made for a surprisingly nuanced metagame. The guy seemed to try so hard to get out of a Albert/Coach/Sophie F3 but got dragged back in each time. I feel like a lot of seasons are missing a restless Albert character.
Even the concept of the Coach gamble, that he would sabotage himself at the final TC, is an interesting psychological study.
Always found that season kind of fascinating. It's kind of like Gabon in how utterly bizarre it is in a lot of ways.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-14, 05:45 PM (EST)

144. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

So Pathetic is my absolute worst season mostly because of all the proselytism done by Coach and Brandon. That whole alliance was boring. Gabon is also near the bottom for me and, no wonder, there were a lot of religious undertones to that season also. That time however, it was production that shoved the last Eden down our throats. Then again, production was the only player that season.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-14, 05:38 PM (EST)

143. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

Thank you for bringing that up Sheldor. If you go back to episode 3, I had Sophie as a top contender, even saying that the main story of the season could be "Sophie's Choice." It's when Sophie sheepishly went back to Coach and Brandon after they booted Mikayla that I thought she was doing nothing.
As for the Baylor-Sophie comparison, I think the important difference is that we've heard plenty of negative comments about Baylor. In So Pathetic, Sophie's standoffish attitude was completely cover-up. We had to pay attention to see her showing signs that she wasn't interested in listening to what the others were saying (sunbathing or even cleaning her toe nmails when they were pleading their cases) but no one was heard saying that they considered her to be a spoiled brat until Ozzy told her what he had heard the others saying about her at the F5 TC.
If Baylor can have a similar epiphany at TC, maybe, but we also heard numerous players complain that baylor cannot own up to her game.

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Flowerpower1 4388 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
12-10-14, 07:52 PM (EST)

141. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

michel: You are AMAZING at all of this stuff and see so much more than I could ever hope to see. I thoroughly love this thread, and I love thinking about reading it either Sat night or Sun AM....always bummed between seasons....you have nailed it all this season. Thanks so much for all you put into it...don't tell you enough!
Yikes, the ladies of Yassur....still, Chris winning that season was really one of my absolute favorite seasons of ALL! LOVED him! Jon or Keith certainly are no CHRIS!!!

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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
12-10-14, 00:21 AM (EST)

136. "RE: Episodes 11 and 12: Whining, Fighting and Surprising"

LAST EDITED ON 12-10-14 AT 00:42 AM (EST)
Was she really that pristine and pure on the island?
John Rocker, despite the fact that he has established a personal friendship with Natalie and her sister, has been quite candid about the fact that Natalie's attack on him was much more intense, lengthy and invective and obscenity-rich than the CBS portrayal of it. And that he has become used to the fact that their vulgar speech patterns are simply 'the way that the two routinely speak'. Yet, I can think of only one on-air bleep.
Too, Alec has talked about Natalie throwing sand in Coyopa eyes at Challenges and demanding the return of Nadiya's rosary in - given the subject matter - shockingly salty terms.
And it is because of the discrepancy between the noise that other players attribute to her and the unnatural quiet of her edit that I've come to think that Natalie is certainly a candidate for Sole Survivor.
G

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
12-10-14, 07:56 PM (EST)

142. "The final five"

I have dissected players into three clubs:The pre-merge boots, the merge/early-mid jurors, and the final five.
Last year's final five
Luzon-Kass, Spencer(the two standouts)
Solana-No one really had a star edit
Apari-Tony and Trish
Woo was probably the most unique outside so he gets in the top five as well.
BvW is hard to decipher
Caramoan
Faves-Dawn, Cochran(standouts) whose alliance was illustrated the first show.
Fans-Sherri(whose gameplay was shown the second show)
But Erik and Eddie really did not have the best edits other than Eddie's TC facial expressions. But Erik sort of was like a Woo, and Eddie was the underdog.
Phillipines
Matsing-Denise and Malcom(the clear standouts, Russell was too standout)
Tandang-Lisa and Michael(shown alliance first show).
Calabaw-Jonathan and Jeff probably stood out most but also they clearly had past credits that doomed them.
Abi was the unique character(the Woo)
SJDS
Coyopa-Baylor
Hunahpu-Jon, Keith, and Missy
The Woo/Erik-Natalie or Jaclyn.
So I think the final five is Baylor, Missy, Jon, Keith, and Jaclyn.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-14, 04:23 PM (EST)

145. "Episode 13 - If They Were Smart"

The Recap
After Jon blindsided Natalie’s closest ally, Jeremy, and revealed that he found another immunity idol, Natalie and Baylor wanted him out.
(When Jon told her about his idol, Natalie’s reaction was perfect: “That’s crazy” she said. Indeed!)
We heard Natalie warning Baylor not to tell Missy about their plan and then we saw Jon pouting about his empty wine glass.
When Jon won immunity, the majority alliance decided to take out Keith but Natalie had a different plan. She told Baylor that she was voting against Alec instead.
At Tribal Council, Natalie secretly switched her vote to ruin Jon’s plan.
Once more, we saw the surprise on Jon and Missy’s faces when Jeff said that Alec had been voted out.
I know many viewers were still counting on Jon being the Sole Survivor but this recap set up his fall quite nicely. Indirectly, Natalie told him that trusting her was “crazy”. He would pay dearly for his gullibility.
If They Were Smart
Huyopa – Night 32
We heard some drum rolls and saw a snake when the tribe came back to camp.
Jaclyn was confused, even considering that Alec voted for himself. Natalie told her that he didn’t and added that she thought she was supposed to vote for Alec. Jaclyn was fooled into believing that Natalie had written the wrong name.
Natalie in confessional: “Just the way Tribal went, I knew I had to pretend to mess up and accidently vote out Alec instead of Keith. I had to act my ##### off to convince them that it was a mistake. It was a risk I was willing to take because I didn’t want Jon to have more power and control in this game right now than he needs. I think I sold it to them properly but it’s going to be scary. Jon is on my hit list. He’s been on my hit list since he sent Jeremy home. It’s been a long time coming and I need to make a move soon.”
Baylor in confessional: “It’s hilarious watching Natalie be an actress towards Jon and Jaclyn tonight because, if they were smart, they would know that Natalie knew exactly what she was doing.”
As if to show us that he wasn’t that smart, we heard Jon tell Natalie that everything was fine.
Jon’s confessional sealed his fate: “Tribal was a little bit of a debacle. I guess we didn't talk enough going into it, and Natalie didn't fully understand who she was voting for. It's unfortunate that it happened here because Keith really is a threat in immunity challenges. I mean, that's a big, big deal. That potentially could screw up a lot of plans.”
Keith was then shown half asleep in the shelter.
That image did not make him look like a threat at all but does Keith have us fooled also? Is the door opened wide enough for him? Jon was still portrayed mostly as a positive “Journey” player and, while we heard that his journey had been completed when he told Jeff that his father would be proud of him, it could be that he had one last message to tell us. Maybe Natalie did screw up by letting Keith stay. If he was a challenge threat before then removing Jon makes him that much more dangerous.

Day 33
Keith was walking outside of camp, spitting as usual. Natalie came to join him by the water and told him that she was supposed to vote for him but voted for Alec instead. She added that Jon and Jaclyn didn’t know that she changed her vote on purpose. Finally, she told Keith that they had to be tight with Baylor and Missy.
The inclusion of Missy is strange at this stage because, from what we’ve seen, Missy wasn’t in on the plan. By hearing this, Keith could have made another gaffe and said too much to Missy thinking she knew already. On the other hand, maybe she did know. We’ll have more on that later.
Keith (solo): “Man, I just keep squeaking by, squeaking by and squeaking by. Maybe now I have somebody. Can you believe that? Thirty days into this baby and now I have Nat. Good grief, what can happen after that? Who knows?”
That’s what we’d like to know. Many already think that Keith will squeak by to the very end.
Natalie in confessional: “Keith is still unpredictable but I told him that he was here basically because of me. I told him that me and Baylor, at the end of the day have his back. Hopefully, that will resonate with him and he will be the perfect person to use in a plan against Jon.”
The Reward Challenge
Jeff told them that they were playing for a day at the spa and he turned to Keith to say that they need it.

(Jeff, don’t you think that asking them who sticks the most would have been a funnier question to use at the chopping challenge than asking them about Julie’s tanning salon. )
The Blue team had Jon, Missy and Keith while the players in Yellow were Natalie, Baylor and Jaclyn.
The promos had shown us that Missy was injured while going over and under the obstacles but it happened when the teeter-totter hit the ground. That was another ill-conceived apparatus. Haven’t they learned yet?
We heard Missy say twice that her ankle was bad but she kept up with the guys as best she could.
The Yellow team were in the lead and needed only two buckets of water to open their gate. The Blue team had to go back for a third bucket after spilling some. The women had a lead but they started arguing while Keith, Missy and Jon were working very well together according to Jeff.
Missy seemed to be the one to figure the puzzle out when she told Jon to scoot it over towards her. Right before she said that we saw that their puzzle was in a mess but suddenly, with a good scoot, they were almost done.
Keith, Missy and Jon won reward. The two guys put Missy on the puzzle table and she was heard saying: “It’s just swollen, it’s no big deal.” Jeff wanted to know if she was alright and she told him she was good. Asked how a spa day sounded, Missy told Jeff that it was a game changer, that she could last 16 more days. Jon added that she was going to feel as young as she looks. Jaclyn thought that Jon was being annoying. Jeff asked Jaclyn if she thought she deserved the spa. She deflected the question by saying that they all feel like they deserved it.
The implication was clear: Even Jeff sees that Jaclyn is conceited, thinking she is more deserving than others.
Jon said he wasn’t going on the reward. He wanted to give it to Baylor. He wasn’t into massages but Baylor and her mom would remember this always. He hugged his “little sis”. Jeff was surprised that a reward was traded once again and he was even more surprised when Natalie volunteered to go to Exile Island. Jon also said that he could handle going to Exile Island but Natalie insisted so she went.
As they left for the spa, Baylor insisted on giving a piggy-back ride to her mom. Jeff reminded Missy that the medical team could be called in if she wanted.
Jon and Jaclyn were happy to be alone in camp. Jon, in confessional, said that it was an easy decision for him, that it may have also strengthened his case for the jury.
I wonder what he thought about that as he watched last night! As for Missy, I think it’s more likely that her injury will be the game changer instead of the visit to the spa. If she does fight through the pain and makes it to the end, the jury will probably reward her grit, her passion for the game. If she is forced to retire then it will have game changing value for someone else. The images that made it appear as if she won the puzzle for her team were either put together to reinforce her winner’s story or to complete a “tribute” story.
The Reward
After being greeted with cold drinks and nice food, Missy cheered with Keith for their victory.
Baylor (solo): “My mom, Keith and Jon won the reward and before I knew it, Jon was saying: “I’m switching with Baylor” and I was like what? That was super nice of him to do that but getting Jon out is me and Natalie’s pretty much number one priority.”
Missy wanted Keith to take a look at her ankle. He immediately realized that it was pretty swollen.
Missy in confessional: “At the reward challenge, I was trying so hard not to show any signs of pain in my ankle but I could just feel it swelling up. I’m in a lot of pain and I don’t know exactly how the next couple of days are going to go down in the challenges. I’ll do the best I can, I’ll crawl if I have to but I am going to finish.”
It seems that, even after all these years, the Survivor editors are still rubbing it in Jeff Wilson’s face. We must remember however that Amy O’Hara had a “tribute” story when she didn’t let her injured ankle slow her down. I could be mistaking a similar type of respect from the editors for the winner’s story.
Keith was happy to have food and Baylor joked that Wes will be jealous when he sees that.
Keith in confessional: “I never had a spa day...but it turned out not too bad... I went into the shower. It knocked some funk off of me... Then it was off to the massage.”
If Keith never had a day at the spa, he never had a month on Survivor either and that’s turned out not too bad also.
“George Clooney” enjoyed his massage.
Baylor gave us her impressions: “Keith at the spa was pretty dang funny! I hadn’t seen that side of Keith before. I had a realization that Keith is kind of cool.”
Yes, and she should also realize that the jury will find Keith kind of cool also if they let him squeak by.
In confessional, Keith said he wanted to keep his day at the spa a secret from the guys at the station. He added: “I got 4, 5, 6 days left, I can take this on now.”
I always enjoy it when we hear numbers. The numbers are usually bad on Survivor: If Keith makes it only 4 more days, he will fall short by a couple.
Huyopa
Jon told us that it was nice to be alone in camp with Jaclyn. They talked about the vote and how it was a big screw up for Natalie. As oblivious as could be, Jon even said that he would bring up Natalie’s screw up to the jury. “If you are going to split votes, know who you are voting for” he said.
Jon (solo): “Natalie made a big mistake, voting for the wrong person and now you kept Keith, one of the biggest threats.”
That’s when it dawned on Jaclyn that Natalie and Keith could have something going. She added: “Maybe she did it on purpose and lied about it.”
Jon dismissed the idea: “I don’t see Nat flipping. I think our five is set.”
Jaclyn had a confessional: “Keith is freakishly good at these challenges so, if Keith keeps winning immunity then I think that everybody will get more mad at Natalie for screwing up that vote and we will have to break the five sooner than we thought.”
Just then Jon was shown blowing a lot of smoke.

Jon was portrayed as being blinded by the “Fogs of War.” As for Keith, his ability in challenges is being discussed so intensely for a reason. Either it is telling us that he will stay safe to the end and he will be rewarded for it by the jury or it is used to create doubts about the winner’s chances. The interesting side effect of this is that it could be telling us that Natalie won’t win. If Keith wins all the challenges, Natalie will be exposed at Final 4. If she is voted out because Keith won immunity then Jon was right and she truly did screw up. Even the alternative, that Keith’s threat is used only to create doubts is less applicable to Natalie because most viewers would assume she’d beat Keith in the end anyway.

Exile Island – Night 34
Natalie wasn’t ignored like Wes and Alec.
Natalie: “I volunteered to go to exile but, at this point in the game when your body is already so drained and it’s so close to the end you can almost taste it but you are not there yet, it’s really depressing me to be out here. It’s been a roller-coaster of emotions for me because this is the longest I’ve gone without seeing or talking to my sister. I’ve lived with Nadyia for 28 years, we’ve never done anything alone and I don’t want anyone see how I miss her. I haven’t cried in front of anybody and I always kind of pretend like I’m fine but Nadiya’s been gone for like thirty days now and I’ve been doing this without her but I am trying to make it into something where I can use it as motivation instead of bringing me down. It’s time to buck up and make every decision moving forward count. I have one shot to prove to myself that I left everything on the table and make these last four days fully worth it.”
Again the numbers and she said 4 days! By her count, Natalie will fall one day short of the end game! This confessional was great because it can apply equally well to a “Journey Player” and to a winner. Much like Tyson talking about Rachel, these words put Natalie on the right direction to win in a Blood versus water season. She is using her Loved One’s elimination as motivation and that was the key in the first Blood versus Water winning story. However, the first Blood versus Water season was dominated by the singles while this one has been dominated, at least up to now, by the couples. Some will say that Natalie ended that domination but I think this Blood versus Water “will come down to Mother versus Daughter as it should be” according to Jeff. If that is the case then this confessional gives us the scope of Natalie’s journey: She did some amazing things on her own and certainly didn’t leave anything on the table.
The Challenge rena
When the “guys” came in, we saw that Missy needed a cane and was being helped by Baylor and Keith.
This wasn’t the first time that Keith is seen helping Missy and not the last. Shouldn’t that in itself have alerted Jon and Jaclyn?
When Natalie returned from Exile Island, Baylor gave her a shell containing rice. It brought tears to Natalie’s eyes. She told Jeff that Exile Island had been very hard.
Jeff then turned to Missy and asked her about her ankle. She had tears in her eyes when she told him that it had gotten worse but she said she wasn’t going to quit. Jeff asked for the doctor to look at her before the challenge.
Baylor and Keith were shown having trouble watching Missy’s pain.
The scene ended with the doctor saying that the ankle could be fractured but they would need to pull Missy from the game to do an X-ray.
When we returned from the “cliff-hanger” commercial break, we heard a melancholic air played on the piano that reminded me a lot of the melody that accompanied Penner’s medical evacuation.
Missy was in tears, saying that this was so frustrating. Jeff turned to the doc and asked if it was severe enough to pull her from the game. Missy was shown nodding her head no and doc agreed. They could immobilize the leg since there were only a few days left. When asked what she wanted to do, Missy said: “I am staying in this game. I am not quitting.” Jeff then said: “You will sit out this challenge and then take each day as it comes.”
Before the challenge, Jeff asked Baylor for her feelings. Baylor said that her mom was a fighter and never gives up. She added: “I’ll carry her to the finish line if I have to.” Natalie said: “I’ll help you.”
Baylor’s quote really stood out when I watched the show and it still resonates as the winning quote for the season.

When the challenge started, Jeff turned to Missy saying: “You can see you had no...” and she ended his sentence: “I had no chance.”
Some editing analysts will pounce on that quote and say that Missy herself admits she has no chance of winning. Isn’t doubt a wonderful thing? It makes us question everything! I’ll say that Missy’s game was never about winning challenges. That could be bad in a season where Jeff said that winning challenges contributes to the résumé that the jury will evaluate but even that implied that it wasn’t the only case to make.
Jaclyn was first out and she was soon followed by Baylor. Keith lasted a while but the wind was too much for him and his vase hit the ground, leaving Jon and Natalie. When Jeff told them that they had to fight to win it, we heard Jon ask: “What’s up, Nat?” If he wanted to negotiate an end to the challenge, Natalie pretended that she didn’t hear him! Out of nowhere, “Mother Nature” decided that Jon’s vase would fall off.

Jon had the kiss of death confessional: “Keith is an incredible threat on all immunity challenges so Natalie winning today kind of makes up for her messing the last vote. The plan is to do what we planned on doing last time and get Keith out.”
If doubt is wonderful then so is irony. Can you just picture Jon kicking himself as he watched this on his TV?
Right then, Keith was shown helping Missy walk back to camp.
It makes me wonder how much Keith’s assistance helped him stay in the game. Where was Missy’s “son”? Shouldn’t Jon have offered the helping hand?
Back in camp, Missy called Keith a lifesaver.
Jon gave us a confessional: “The fact that Missy had to sit out today I’m sure was excruciating for her, probably just as bad as the pain she was actually feeling.”
That was not a bad confessional for Missy especially coming from someone that will soon be on the jury! It wasn’t really needed for the narrative but it could be telling us how the jury will see Missy at the end.
While Keith was off on his own in the ocean, Natalie was telling everyone that he knew he was going.
Natalie in confessional: “Jon and Jaclyn think we are all voting out Keith, that Keith is going home but my plan, basically, is to get out Jon. Jon has an idol so I know it’s not going to be easy. My ultimate plan is to split the vote and blindside Jon tonight.”
She explained the plan to Keith, telling him he’d have to look depressed to sell it.
Keith gave us a confessional to let us know he got it this time: “If things go according to plan, Mister All-American or Miss USA is going home and I’ll be sitting here with five. I think I can trust this one. If I can’t, I’m a goner.”
We saw the snake (which has come to symbolize Natalie) approaching just when Jaclyn told Jon that she was a little worried when Jon lost the challenge but Jon wasn’t.
Jaclyn’s confessional: “Keith was supposed to go home last time so it’s like, OK, let’s get it over with but I feel that your mind causes all this paranoia. Could I go home tonight? Could Jon go home tonight? You never know 100 percent but at least Jon still has his idol. Jon is super big on visualizing the win and it always worked out for him so hopefully it does this time too.”
After agreeing on the vote with Natalie, Baylor gave us a confessional: “I need my mom to get on board with voting Jon out but my mom treats Jon like her son that she never had so I’m worried about if she is going to write his name down. It really depends on my mom”
While Baylor was out gathering firewood, we saw her and Missy talking about the plan: “Natalie and I think we should vote Jon.”
Missy told her that she couldn’t do it: “I’ve given him my word to the end and I will get no votes.”
Baylor objected: “Challenge wise, you are never going to win.”
Missy replied: “It doesn’t matter, I couldn’t care less.”
Another quote to pounce on!! Some will write that Missy doesn’t care about winning. I will say she doesn’t care about winning challenges which is much different. Time will tell how that quote should have been interpreted.
Baylor wanted them to go with Natalie and Keith but Missy said she had a deal with Jon.
While they argued, we heard Baylor’s confessional that is transcribed below. Baylor said she had no deal with Jon. And that they should vote him out with his idol.
Natalie was now shown with the two. Either she just joined them or she had been listening quietly all along. She spoke out: “I don’t think I can move forward trusting Jon on any vote. I know you trust him but I don’t. I say we vote Jon tonight.”
Missy was categorical: “Tonight, it’s not happening.”
It was quite interesting that this scene was shown here when it was actually filmed before Wes was sent home. A poster at Sucks (Mayan Sun) traced that scene first seen in the promos back to episode 10 by the way each of the three women were wearing their hair and their buffs and now we know he was right because there is no way that Missy would be out in the woods gathering some branches with her ankle in a cast. We even see her hands, telling us she didn’t even have her cane! Baylor’s scenes were also from different days because she was wearing a bikini with her hair tied up when she talked to Natalie about the 2-2-2 split (that had to occur on day 35) then she had a red suit in the first part of her confessional, she was back in a bikini with her hair down and wet when she talked to her mom (on day 26) and then she featured a brown tank top in her last confessional.
This tells us that Natalie, Baylor and Missy had discussed voting out Jon on day 26 and that’s when Missy put a stop to the plan with her “Tonight, it’s not happening”. She probably explained that there were other guys to eliminate before Jon. She must have gotten Natalie to agree because that was the Tribal Council where Natalie told Jon to play his idol. So why put this discussion here? It was helpful in creating suspense for this episode but, mostly, it showed that Missy was loyal to Jon as long as she could. If they had shown Missy more open to the idea, all of Jon’s followers would have seen her as a villain. Presented this way, they still won’t like what Missy did but it is more acceptable. That’s what the editors need: An acceptable winner.
Baylor’s confessional heard during her argument with her mom (If the editors can put scenes out of sequence then so can I!): “It’s frustrating talking to my mom... She is putting the men first before herself. That’s her downside I think and that’s what I feel is happening in this game with Jon. It’s like: Mom, I’m your first born, you don’t even know this guy. Let’s play this game together. I hope she is going to see it before it’s too late.”
One can wonder if it will happen with Keith now that he is the only man left! It was interesting that, after Jon and Jaclyn kissed, they parted and Keith was shown behind them as if only waiting for these two to be broken up!
Missy was wearing her cast during the evening’s last confessional: “When my child says to me: Mom, our goal is to get to the end together, I have to start and listen. Has it crossed my mind that this Jon and Jaclyn show may need to come to an end? Absolutely but it’s important for me to feel that I played this game truthfully. I wasn’t some sly dog who came in, shook people’s hands and lied to their faces. I haven’t. I pride myself on that. That’s why tonight, for the first time, I am having a tough time with it.”
Apparently, according to the camerman, it was actually her time to be in the sun.
Tribal Council
Keith was still helping Missy while Baylor was wearing a T-shirt that didn’t match any of the outfits she wore for her two confessionals just before TC.
Keith didn’t wait for Jeff to give it to him; he went ahead and said that he tried to pierce the five but that they were solid. He argued that he had a vote they should use. He added that the jury would see it as a big move and big moves gets you votes.

Missy was shown at that time and the jury had to know she was close to Jon so that it would be her big move to make.
Jeff brought up the fact that Keith was a fireman so that he was trustworthy.
Jon said it wasn’t a question of not trusting Keith; it was that they had built this alliance of five together. He said he’d feel hypocritical if he let them down.
Josh and Jeremy weren’t buying it.
Jaclyn said that she felt strong in the five adding: “I don’t think Jon and I are going anywhere.
Missy was shown again, this time a bell rung at the same time as if she had heard something important. Baylor rolled her eyes while Wes and Josh could hardly contain themselves after hearing so much confidence.
Natalie said that it was tough to be the only single in the five so she was thankful to have the immunity necklace.
When Jeff asked Jon about his final speech rehearsal, Jeremy slapped Josh in the ribs. That told us that they were also anticipating Jon’s final speech and they were ready to blast him. (Maybe they’ll use it on Jaclyn.)
Jon naïvely told Jeff that he was thinking about his final speech quite a bit which seemed to perturb Missy. Jon added that sticking to the five wasn’t that easy. For him, building that trust throughout the game was a rare thing to find in Survivor.
Missy told Jeff that she had a hard time focusing on one thing because of her foot and that she was loyal to a fault and that she doesn’t waver.
It was time to vote. Keith was shown escorting Missy to the voting booth and back. Again, where was her “son”?
No votes were shown and no one played an idol when Jeff asked for it.
With two votes for Keith and one vote for Jaclyn, things were still going as expected for Mister All-American and Miss USA. The second vote for Jaclyn caused concern for them but the jury didn’t react immediately. The next vote was for Jon and you could tell that Jon was visualizing what was going to happen next. We saw the jury’s enjoyment when Jeff revealed the sixth vote. Keith, Jaclyn and Jon each had two votes so that meant that Jon and Jaclyn couldn’t even vote. They had to watch in silence as Missy, Baylor and Natalie went for the coup de grâce.
Jon knew what was coming and you could tell he was regretting saving that idol. Natalie’s smile when she voted was something to see!
Natalie’s smile grew wider and Keith winked at Wes when Jeff read the votes. Jon left with a lot of class and patted Keith on the shoulder: “Nice move, bud” he told him before realizing that he was forgetting to bring his torch.
Jeff ended the night by saying: “Survivor is a tricky game. It can lull you into believing things that aren’t real like trust and, before you know it, you’ve forgotten the basic premise: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. This game is wide open.”
While Jeff said these words, the camera action was quite telling. First, we realized that Jaclyn was fuming inside and that her wrath was directed at Natalie. Then, Natalie was the one that was on screen when Jeff said the word “Outwit”, Keith was shown for “Outplay” but Missy was the one featured under “Outlast.” We can certainly say that Natalie and Keith were the perfect choices for Outwit and Outplay respectively. Does that mean that Missy outlasts them all?
The Story
As we expected a while back, the end story has been dominated by a “Family” nucleus with Missy as the Mother, Keith as the Father and their three “daughters”. While we expected the “son” to last longer, this season also featured the good game play by the women so Jon was taking too much place in the narrative. Maybe our winner is to be found in the one that fills his or her role in the family the best.
The Characters
The Pros for Jaclyn: For the remaining players, the “princess” should be a good player to take to the end because she acted so poorly on many occasions. Once in front of the jury, she could make a strong case for herself, both in the personal department and in the game. She could claim that, even if it was by luck, she and Jon were in a position of power and their decisions shaped this game. Even if Jon fell, their tactics were good enough to get her to the end. Since, as a group, the jury won’t be in love with any of the three finalists no matter whom they are, Jaclyn could get some votes.
The Cons: Since this was a Family Final Five, Jaclyn could have easily been portrayed as the Sweetheart, even the “Cinderella” of the season. She had to cope with the gross behavior of the other kids and even the “Father” was less than elegant. That was used to explain Josh’s elimination but it certainly hasn’t been Jaclyn’s overall story. A true sweetheart would not have been ignored before the swap like Jaclyn was. When she finally became part of the story, she turned more into the bad sister, the one that was so conceited that she got constantly frustrated and even argued for hours with Jon despite the game that was going on. If she could gain favor from the jury by admitting to luck, I feel she will borrow Jon’s final speech and claim that she decided the outcome of the season. The jury will cruelly roast her.
The Pros for Baylor: If she can make it to the end without Natalie, she could claim to be the finalist that made the most crucial decisions. From the beginning of the season, she has been in on every vote and she could even appease Josh by explaining how his first vote against her was scary. She knew right then that he was dangerous so she couldn’t trust him. Like Jaclyn, she won’t be facing a Yul or a Tom in the Final Three so she doesn’t have to beat insurmountable odds. If her mother is forced from the game, Baylor could gain some sympathy by association.
The Cons: We have heard many negative comments about Baylor and her laziness will be difficult to overcome. More importantly, we saw on a few occasions that Baylor cannot own up to her game and that is something the jury cannot accept.

The Pros for Natalie: She has played an amazing game even if she was the first to lose her Loved One. She is the most liked player left in the game, she never hesitated to confront the hardships of Exile Island and she has won some key challenges, even an endurance one immediately after returning from Exile Island. Natalie would make for a great winner.
The Cons: This season isn’t set up for a great winner. The story has featured the players’ failures much more than their successes. If Natalie had won this season, the narrative would have been so much easier to construct and Jeremy would not have completely overshadowed her when they were both on Hunahpu. The other players must see that Natalie would win the vote so they must consider that they have to get rid of her. The problem is that she has an immunity idol so they will have only one shot to beat her. I think they will succeed, bringing Natalie to the end of her Journey without her “twinnies”, be it the real one, Nadyia, the honorary one, Jeremy, and the new one, her Hidden Immunity Idol. Once out of twinnies, Natalie’s game must end.
The Pros for Keith: We often heard that everyone loves a fireman and that a firefighter and father of two kids would get the money. Keith is also freakishly good in challenges and Natalie may very well have screwed up when she opened the door for him. Like a good husband, Keith is always helping Missy even if she hasn’t always been nice to him. It would have been fascinating to see more of their interactions because it seems that it played a role in Missy’s vote which saved Keith over Jon. He has made some very dumb mistakes when the game got complicated but even his mistakes turned out well for him after the dust settled. He keeps squeaking by and he’d make a dangerous opponent in front of a jury. We’ve seen that “confessional Keith” is pretty good with words (even if they aren’t always the right ones!) and “Tribal Council Keith” had some good answers for Jeff. It’s “every-day Keith” that puts his foot in his mouth when he isn’t using it to spit. (Maybe it’s the taste of foot.) Now that Jon and Jaclyn have been separated, will Keith emerge from behind them? That could have been quite the telling picture.
The Cons: Would the jury accept to have been Outwitted and Outplayed by Keith? If he doesn’t win the Final Five immunity, Keith should be everyone’s target and his edit could be completely explained because he is the last man standing. (It should be funny to see Keith handling the next days with the four women. I remember James saying how it was driving him crazy on Airai.) While Keith has played the role of the “father” by helping Missy and going out to fish, I think it’s interesting that, despite all the scenes that showed him with a fishing pole and tending the nets, we never saw him catch a fish or seen the group feasting on seafood. I assume that “Keith-is-the-winner” story could have used some moments where he provided for the tribe. In that important role, Keith failed so that could be a telling hint.
The Cons for Missy: Jeff said she had no chance and she agreed. She told her daughter that she could care less about winning challenges and she could still be forced out of the game. Hearing her talking about the fairness of staying in the game even if she can’t do a thing would be a way to end the “Tribute” edit that may have been the editors’ intent. A tribute edit could certainly have pushed me in the wrong direction when I saw her as the winner. Her hesitations at getting rid of the “son she never had” could indicate that she doesn’t have what it takes to beat her competition which includes her real daughter. She was called a b*tch by Dale but her likely opponents were called brat, princess and dumb.
The Pros for Missy: The editors went out of their way to show that Missy was a “good mom”, the one that sympathized with the players who lost Loved Ones during the pre-merge challenges and who tried to help Julie in her different crises. She even showed that she cared deeply for Jon, making it look like it was a last minute decision and only after hearing him talk at Tribal Council about rehearsing his final speech. On the island, Missy had put a stop to any ideas of booting Jon on day 26 but the idea had been planted and she knew that the Jon and Jaclyn show had to come to an end. The edit is backing her claim that she is loyal to the end and that this was a necessary move. The camera also gave Missy credit for winning that challenge even if she was on one foot. It isn’t the first time that her challenge performances were manipulated; a few times she could have been blamed for losses but she wasn’t. Baylor’s quote that she will carry her to the end and the amount of time spent on showing Missy’s determination to keep on fighting are very good from an editing point of view. She showed her passion for the game and that could be the game changer; the argument that will tip the scale in her favor. Jeff’s words told us that she will Outlast them all.
While I don’t have the same confidence as in some of the previous seasons, I still think that Missy will be our Sole Survivor.

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
12-13-14, 05:35 PM (EST)

146. "RE: Episode 13 - If They Were Smart"

LAST EDITED ON 12-13-14 AT 06:04 PM (EST)
Nice summary and breakdown of the episode, michel.
>It seems that, even after all these years, the Survivor editors
>are still rubbing it in Jeff Wilson’s face. We
>must remember however that Amy O’Hara had a “tribute” story
>when she didn’t let her injured ankle slow her down.
> I could be mistaking a similar type of respect
>from the editors for the winner’s story.
The big difference here is that Amy's ankle injury happened in mid-season with a long way still to go to the end and she didn't have the support system that Missy has in this season (and with only 6 days to go for Missy to ride it out). We were not shown all that much sympathy for Amy from anyone in particular amongst her tribemates, while we were shown great concern and empathy from others for Missy's injury which bodes her well for an appearance in front of the jury.
Agree, though, that it's worth keeping in the back of our minds if they end up booting Missy in the next two TCs - a tribute story.

>Before the challenge, Jeff asked Baylor for her feelings. Baylor
>said that her mom was a fighter and never gives
>up. She added: “I’ll carry her to the finish
>line if I have to.” Natalie said: “I’ll help you.”
>
>Baylor’s quote really stood out when I watched the show and
>it still resonates as the winning quote for the season.
Ditto, it perked me up instantly when I saw that on TV and immediately picked up my laptop to post it on the ECST! That jumped out at me more than any other quote all season (and moreso than most other seasons as well).
I'm still ambiguous as to what it means by Natalie adding the "I'll help you" quote - either it means Natalie is there in the F3 with Missy and Baylor through the moves she's already made (in particular, getting Jon out) or she makes a move to fall on the sword at F4 which results in Missy/Baylor remaining intact for the final jury (thus fitting what you mentioned about her saying 'four days left').
How many times have we been shown Natalie sacrificing herself to allow others to partake in rewards or avoid going to Exile Island? Could there be one more sacrifice of some sort from Natalie to ensure that Missy makes it to the end and thus fulfill the "I'll help you" comment to Baylor? Could she, let's say, give up her HII to save Missy if she has immunity and realizes that Missy could be a target?

>Jeff’s words told us that she will Outlast them all.
>
>While I don’t have the same confidence as in some of
>the previous seasons, I still think that Missy will be
>our Sole Survivor.
I'm in the same boat as you are with that proclamation. Really a topsy-turvy editing season with all kinds of interpretations and possibilities to consider. But, even with the ankle injury, this was a really good episode for Missy in terms of framing her candidacy as a winner of this season.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
12-16-14, 03:51 AM (EST)

147. "RE: Episode 13 - If They Were Smart"

Unfortunately Baylor will not carry her to the finish line or Missy won't get there. She or Baylor are not in the F4.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
12-16-14, 03:58 AM (EST)

148. "RE: Episode 13 - If They Were Smart"

But what should be noted is Probsts three key words and who they were on.......that could be the final three. If JJ and Baylor vote for Missy she needs one more. Jeremy will go for Nat but does Keith steal Josh, Reed, or both's votes for making it there against all odds to go with Wes. Baylor may get along with Alec at Ponderosa to bait him into voting for Missy and that will seal it. So its possible Missy could win with 4 votes, Keith with 2 votes, and Natalie with 2 votes.

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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
12-16-14, 09:17 PM (EST)

149. "Also"

I was watching Cochran's boot on So Pa and when they were talking about after Cochran and Edna left,Probst asked who would finish fifth and the camera panned on Rick and fourth and the camera panned on Albert. Rick did finish fifth, Albert finished third. The fourth place was Ozzy. And that was sly editing to show that if Ozzy won immunity thats the first two to go in that order. However they were not thinking of the RI returnee but the editing did.
So I'm wondering if those camera shots did anything like that this season with Probst's saying stuff like this. Also, showing outlast on Missy was interesting. But if she goes next, its to show that she can't make it because if she could, she'd win it all. I think Missy is getting somewhat the Kass reactions. People saying they won't vote for her when in truth she never made it to the FTC. Is this what we're getting with Missy? And also, the outplay on Keith must mean he outplays Natalie? Nat outwitted Jon.

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michel2 4545 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-14, 02:37 PM (EST)

150. "A Look Back at San Juan Del Unsure"

Since Jeff was busy talking to the live audience, I thought I’d make my own summary of the season. It would be a substitute; a quick one, while he’s away. Assemble the cast:
Previously, on a beach near Burnit’s personal resort, 18 castaways faced the challenge of a lifetime: Spend 39 days with a Loved One. Most were happy that it didn’t come to that; their loved ones got eliminated one after the other before they could play together. The first boot was Natalie’s twinnie, Nadyia. She was a victim of a guys’ alliance which wasn’t much of a surprise since the men had a numbers advantage on both tribes even before the game started.

Flashback to Brunette’s office before the season started: “Jiffy, you’ve done a good job lately. We’ve had some good, strong male winners the last couple of years but I think casting did a bad job this time. We have a few good men but I fear that they will all get voted out early. What can you do?”
“Well,” Probe said, “we could have our doctor look at the players again. I think we have a pair of women that don’t look too healthy, if you know what I mean: We scratch two women from the competition, it should give the men all the advantage they need.”
“I like it,” said Survivor’s deity. “We can even get some mileage out of it: Survivor isn’t like Big Brother, you need to be fit to play this game. Call the promo department and make a press release: Two women had to be scratched before the season started because they couldn’t make it.”
Probe hesitated for a second: “Shouldn’t we have the doctor make the exams first?”
Back on the island, Nadyia tried to get Josh to join the girls but he wasn’t exactly a ladies’ man! Instead, he “connedvinced” Baylor to let the women hang high and dry. She voted with the guys even if she had told the women they should vote for what’s-his-name, the old geezer.
Coyote lost the second immunity challenge and, as predicted, another strong woman left; Jeremy’s wife, Val.
Even if he didn’t care enough to actually work on the show anymore, Brunette was still curious about his experiment. He ordered Jiffy to his manor and asked for an update.
Probe looked distressed: “Oh! my god, I have bad news for you. This season is looking like crap. The players are dumb like rocks.”
Brunette sighed: “I knew this was going to happen. I think it’s time for some drama.”
Probe knew what his master meant: “You think it’s already time for the special tree mail? We promised him immunity.”
Brunette didn’t care: “This is Survivor: We all lie.”
The next morning, Jeremy was told to go collect tree mail for his Honeypooh tribe. Inside, he found an old Sports Illustrated magazine. It wasn’t the swimwear edition...
Before getting to the challenge arena, Jiffy told his crew: “Get some popcorn, this should be fun.”
He wasn’t talking about the challenge which involved some ropes, balls and hoops but about the reactions afterwards. It was the all-out attack on Jon “Off-His-Rocker” that followed the challenge that delighted Jiffy. Sure, this was going to cause trouble for one of the alpha males but it was the only way to save this sinking ship.
Back at Coyote, “Off-His-Rocker” was fuming and demanded to talk to someone in charge. In a discussion that never made it on the air, John unleashed his anger: “I told you guys that I wanted the same deal that the returning players got on Big Brother: I’m not a starter and I never enter a game before the 9th inning so you were going to give me immunity until the 9th episode. Instead, you threw me under the bus. What happened?”
“We sent you on Exile Island with an African American woman, we put a gay guy in your alliance and what do you do? Instead of giving us good material, you get along with them. The deal’s off.”
Having lost his protectors, John was knocked off his rocker and sent packing.
Everything seemed to be back on track during the next cycle, Honeypooh lost immunity and the guys immediately started campaigning against Kelly and Julie but suddenly, the winds changed... The women “connedsulted” with Jeremy and got him to side with them to vote out Drew.
“This is catastrophic” thought Jiffy and, sure enough, he was convened to his majesty’s residence.
Brunette was fuming: “Why are you letting these women make fools of us all. You need to get your bag of tricks out and randomly redistribute the players so that we have one team of men and one of women. Then we can set up a weight lifting challenge to send one of these...women to Loser Lodge.”
Jiffy knew his next comment could get him in even more trouble: “Our fans are starting to question our “random” draws. We have to be a bit more subtle than that.”
“Our fans are dumb. Anyway, if they are complaining that means they are watching. That’s all that matters.”
“I know, my liege but we really only have three or four guys that are worth saving so what if we put them together on one tribe and make that tribe practically invincible. The riff-raff can just eliminate each other on the other tribe. They’ll be so scared to lose a challenge that they will keep all the able body men that we throw on that side.”
“OK, that doesn’t sound too bad. For your sake, it better work.”
Over the course of the next two cycles, things did settle down: Kelly and the old geezer were voted out. The problem was that it was time for the merger and the best male players had not exactly formed an alliance. Even with a 7-5 advantage, it looked like either Jeremy or Josh would be leaving next. Since Jeremy had been “connedpromised” by the women, production was willing to let him go in order to have an all-male final 5 which would be Brunette’s ultimate dream season. To make sure that reality would match the script, Jeff boarded his boat and went to have a little chat with one of Jeremy’s allies.
“Julie” he said, “you don’t have a snowball’s chance in Brunette’s manor of winning this game so what do you want to do? You could spend the next 3 weeks on jury duty listening to all the crap that is said at Tribal Council, forced to make it look like you are fascinated by all the inanities that these players utter or you can spend those three week in a five-star resort with your boyfriend, all expenses paid by SeeBS.”
Julie had to sit down when she heard that: “What would I have to do?”
“Just tell me that you want to quit and I’ll take care of everything.”
“But I’m not a quitter” objected the plastic doll.
“The weatherman tells me that we are due for five days of rain.”
“Will it be raining where you send John and me?”
After that, it seemed like it would be smooth sailing from here on out but, instead, one man after the other left the game. When the dust settled, we were down to Natalie, Missy, Baylor, Jaclyn and Keith. Mark Burnit had long lost interest in the season, too depressed to even hear the recaps after each cycle. Jeff knew he’d have to promise the audience that the next season would be great because, with only the 2 hour finale left to present, this one was going to suck big time. Imagine: You had a mother-daughter pair that represented the last connection to the Blood versus Water theme but they were just an ordinary suburban housewife with a teenaged brat. The ex-Miss Michigan showed everyone that she didn’t win that title because of her personality. The ex-Amazing Race participant was certainly not amazing. In fact she was much less entertaining on her own than she was when she competed with her twin. The only male representative was about the sorriest example of the gender possible, unable to do much more than spit and scratch his #####. These players had actually cooperated through most of the season when they should have been at each other’s throats and one of them was about to be crowned Sole Survivor. Yes, I’m serious: One of them was going to win a million dollars for “outwitting” this competition.
The Farmer’s Almanac
Night 35
We had the expected fight between Jon’s fiancée and his executioner. Jaclyn was saying that Natalie didn’t know Jon in real life while Natalie was saying she knew Jon in the game.
I wish Natalie would have simply said that Jon was the dumbass who thought he had this game won. Since that was pretty much what Jaclyn had said about Jon just last week, it would have taken care of real life Jon and Survivor Jon. If Jaclyn doesn’t like hearing anyone saying bad things about Jon, she should never visit the Survivor Sucks board!!
Natalie gave us a confessional to prepare us for her victory when she said you have to do a lot of hard work to win the game.
Day 36
The audience had received many hints that Missy could fall on her sword for her daughter over the course of the season but we heard that the two women were still planning on going to the end together.
Then it was off to the Reward challenge. Often, the finale is so packed with interesting events, having to cover two immunity challenges and three Tribal Councils that we rarely have time for a reward but not this season. This season has featured the challenges to a level never seen before.
The Reward was for an advantage in the next immunity and it was designed for Keith. We’ve known since the premiere that Keith is a baseball fan so it easy to figure out that he’d have the best throwing arm.
Keith easily defeated Natalie, Jaclyn and Baylor. He chose to send Jaclyn to Exile Island.
Natalie told us that it was hard for the ego to be beaten by a 53 year old man but that she’d have to do it in the next challenge even if he had an advantage.
What she didn’t know is that she’d have to beat Keith and the producers...
Before the break, Jiffy talked to a girl who was probably ten and he “promised” her a part on the show someday which means he plans on doing at least 16 more seasons.
Please, God, Nooooooooo! I imagine that it will probably be something like: Survivor Cuba – Caviar Eaters versus Hot Dog eaters versus Vegans.
Back from break, we had a glimpse of Miss Michigan in Exile reading the clue to the Hidden Immunity Idol that Jon had found ages ago. She didn’t bother looking.
If Keith had somehow lost the challenge and been sent on Exile I would be ready to bet that the producers would have “hidden” a new idol directly in the urn.
Back in camp, Keith walked off to read his private message. It told him that he’d have all day to practice on the Immunity Challenge...
...And we got to see him while he practiced! What excitement for this Final Episode. I mean, this is Survivor’s “Super Bowl” night but instead of showing us the wheeling and dealings, we get to see a practice session and not a very good one at that. Explaining that he was close to the point of “flashover” when firemen have to exit a burning building, Keith kept on practicing until he almost knocked himself silly. Slapping myself in the face was what I wanted to do at that point.
Before the challenge, Baylor was sharing some good moments with Natalie, unaware that Natalie wasn’t sure if she really wanted to go with Baylor and Missy. The Ex-Racer was considering going to the end with Jaclyn and Keith.
It’s nice to have a whole heard of domesticated goats.
The Immunity Challenge
The challenge involved balancing balls on small paddles and it’s funny how often that skill has been used this season. We’ve already had two challenges where balls were balanced on paddles and Keith won them both. Was anyone surprised that we’d see something like this a third time? The funniest thing was that Jiffy had the nerve to say that you only get the right touch by practicing again and again.
Keith won the challenge.
Back in camp, Keith, Missy and Baylor were all confident that Jaclyn would be joining the jury at the end of the upcoming Council.
It’s funny that no one got suspicious when Natalie went off to take a dip in the ocean with Jaclyn.
Natalie just wanted one more day and she promised Natalie that she wouldn’t vote her out at the next TC.
Natalie asked if Jaclyn would vote for Baylor. Jaclyn said she preferred going after Missy.
Back in camp, Baylor was reassuring Natalie that they weren’t voting for her so that maybe she could play her idol for her mom.
Now that was a weird request.
In confessional, Natalie said that big moves win the game but she didn’t think that her moves had enough impact. She considered getting rid of Missy or Baylor even if it meant taking a riskier road to the end. She knew that voting out Jaclyn was the safest option.
Tribal Council
Keith thanked Jiffy for providing him with a front row seat for the cat fight between Natalie and Jaclyn.
Missy told Jeff that she wasn’t worried about the idol because she knew where it was.
The fool!
Missy was a little more worried about being the last pair standing but she trusted her alliance.
Natalie said that Keith’s immunity made things more complicated, adding that Jaclyn talked to her.
Jaclyn said the vote was supposed to be between herself and Keith so it sucked that he had immunity.
Missy didn’t think Jaclyn could do anything; that she should just say to herself; “This is my time.”
It was their time to vote.
Jeff did not even let Baylor say a word at her last Council. I wonder if she took it personally.
As expected, Natalie took her twinnie out of her bag and presented it to Jeff. What wasn’t expected is that she turned to Jaclyn and asked if she wrote the name they had discussed. When Jaclyn said she did, Natalie told Jeff that she was playing the idol for Jaclyn.
That really got Jon’s attention. He even said he liked Natalie. Jaclyn was smiling while Missy thought she was going home. Keith gave her a pat on the knee, Missy and Baylor said they loved each other and held hands. Jaclyn hugged Natalie. Missy gave a death stare to Natalie.
The first three votes were for Jaclyn but then the guillotine fell: Baylor was voted out.
While it was very flashy, that move served no purpose. In fact, it was so pointless that it makes me wonder if it wasn’t staged. We heard that the five’s original plan was to have Baylor and Jaclyn volunteer to go to the jury to favor their Loved Ones candidacy and it is easy to imagine that production would have been horrified by that idea. Did they stage it this way to make it acceptable or did Natalie, Baylor and Missy find a way around production’s wishes? All I know is that Missy and Baylor didn’t really look surprised while Natalie looked desponded instead of delighted after the move.
Back in camp, Natalie explained that she felt it would be too dangerous to keep two family members together,
That is a reasonable explanation...If we forget that Keith was still the most dangerous jury threat out there.
Natalie added that Keith would want to get rid of Missy instead of her.
That makes no sense. If Keith had won F4 immunity, Natalie was going to the jury for certain. Then again, Keith isn’t very smart.
In confessional, Missy made the point of telling us that she felt relieved knowing she wouldn’t have to write Baylor’s name down.
Those words confirm that the idea of sending Baylor to the jury had been discussed.
Natalie and Jaclyn discussed the next step which was very simple: Don’t let Keith win.
Production would see to that! They had kept the funny guy as long as needed but the plan wasn’t to let him win it all. After serving him a challenge that he could easily handle, it was time to confront him with a puzzle! The structure did include a fireman’s pole though which could have been a way to tell him they were thinking of him when they arranged his final defeat.
It was nice of production to install a small bench at the top of the structure so that Missy could observe the action. They didn’t have time to install an elevator though!
When Jeff described the puzzle, I wondered if the players really needed to complete it or if they could go for the numbers as soon as they figured out the three shapes they needed. If I had been lucky to start of the top half, I would have gone for the numbers without finishing the whole bottom half.
Natalie and Jaclyn were very nice to Keith, neither used Rafe’s tactic of blocking him out of a particular section so it remained tight throughout the physical portion of the challenge. Still, Natalie had a big lead when she started the puzzle because Keith hadn’t yet started up the 57 steps. Jaclyn finished a distant third and looked exhausted but Jeff’s words and the constant images of Miss Michigan gave us an idea of what was going to happen next. Keith wasn’t the only one that had trouble with the puzzle.

While the players were struggling with the puzzle, Jeff said: “All Missy can do is watch and hope that someone will take her to the end.”
A quote like that would have been appreciated earlier on, Jiffy!
In her excitement of finishing the puzzle first, Jaclyn forgot to take a good grip of the fireman’s pole and crashed hard on the platform. Jeff had to check on her but she managed to get back up.
Even if it must have been hard to concentrate with Jeff screaming in her ears, Jaclyn had the right combination and she released her flag, signaling victory. She got hugs from Missy and Natalie which pretty much told us how the next vote would go.
In confessional, Keith told us he was in trouble.

No #####, Sherlock!
Back in camp, Jaclyn was beaming, already thinking of Jon’s look when he’d see her wearing the necklace. She said she was going to wear it for the whole day. Conscious that she could be making a million dollar decision or a million dollar mistake, Jaclyn wanted to talk to everyone.
Yes, it was going to be a million dollar decision: Do you give the money to Keith or to Natalie? If a season needed a final 2, this was it.
Keith was the first to plead his case. He said that Missy would get the sympathy vote because of her ankle.
I can’t understand why Keith didn’t pitch eliminating Natalie? When he talked of eliminating Missy, Natalie was standing next to Jaclyn but he could have found a time to talk about eliminating the other big jury threat.
At least Natalie saw that Keith was the one that had to go over Missy so she used subtle persuasion to get Jaclyn to see it. She started by telling Jaclyn that she didn’t give a (#####) about Missy but that Keith was scarier.
Missy told Jaclyn that it was a toss up between Keith and Natalie. It made Jaclyn realize that Nat had the moves to convince the jury. Her gut was telling her that Keith would get the guys’ votes but she thought Jon would want her to eliminate Natalie.
The vote would have been closer if she had eliminated Natalie but it’s doubtful that Jaclyn could have won.
Tribal Council
Jaclyn told Jeff that she was happy to have immunity but that the decision was tough.
Natalie said it would be a nice gesture if Jaclyn saved her this time but she wasn’t expecting anything in return.
Jaclyn didn’t feel that she owed Natalie anything because of Jon’s elimination.
Keith thought it was going to be either him or Missy.
Missy didn’t think that Natalie was assured a spot in the Final 3.
Natalie said Keith had to go because everybody loves a fireman.
Keith said Natalie had a lot of votes because of her game play.
Jeff apparently wanted to throw Natalie under the bus because he got her to admit she had a good shot of winning it.
On his jury seat, Alec looked like he wanted to swallow all the flies in Nicaragua.
It was time to vote and we didn’t get blindsided when Keith saw his torch snuffed.
Jon’s expression told us that he knew the million had just been handed to Natalie. It was clear he was hoping that Jaclyn would have gone after Natalie.
Keith had the funniest line of the evening: “I can barely handle one woman at the house, much less three of them here.”
Day 39
While Natalie and Jaclyn went to collect the Final three breakfast feast, Missy told us that she was ready to dive right in and give it her best shot.
Natalie told us she learned a lot about herself by playing without Nadyia. It made her proud. She wanted to force the jury to give her the title of Sole Survivor.
Jaclyn said everyone underestimated her. She said the money would enable her to start a family with Jon but that the title would inspire all the girls in her situation.
If they hadn’t wasted time on Keith’s practice we could have had then burn the camp and go on the “rites of passage” journey but who cares for the pre-merge characters these days. Certainly not Jeff as we would once again witness during the “reunion”.

Final Council
Missy spoke first and she said that she understood the roles could easily be reversed. The jury’s decision was going to affect the rest of her life. She spoke of her loyalty and that she got rid of those that didn’t trust her. She said that voting Jon out was the biggest and the hardest decision. She added that breaking her foot was the hardest day but she wasn’t going to quit.
Jaclyn said she deserved it because she went through a lot of ups and down in the game just like in her life. She said she felt alone from Day one on her tribe. (Alec was still looking for more flies to swallow.) Then, she mentioned how the swap put her in the middle which enabled her to switch from the Josh-Reed alliance to the Missy-Baylor alliance. She added that these other two women wouldn’t be there if it wasn’t for that decision. Jon’s elimination forced her to step up her game and that was why she was in the top three. She then drew a parallel to her condition which seemed to bore the jury.
Natalie said that she did a better job of Outwitting, Outplaying and Outlasting the other two ladies. She said she made smart, risky and even scary moves by herself. She also said she did well in every challenge and volunteered to go to Exile Island twice and no one ever called her lazy. She said that Nadyia’s elimination forced her to change the way she was going to play the game from just surviving one cycle at a time to doing everything with a purpose. She felt proud to be sitting there especially considering that she should have been voted out at the previous council instead of Keith.
You have to like that kind of attitude!
The jury’s questions were rather innocuous starting with Jon’s soft toss to Jaclyn, asking for a big move that she made on her own. She said it was voting out Josh since it swung the entire game.
Keith was a little more incisive. He asked Natalie how she felt about the lie she told him at the end. Natalie felt bad but felt the vote was between him and her. Keith said he hated the constant lying.
Alec asked Nat about her biggest move and he was thrilled to hear her say that it was voting him out. Jon was the only one surprised by this revelation. Alec also asked Missy about her role as the mother of the tribe. Missy told him it was about positioning herself in the middle of the tribe. It was clear that Reed wasn’t buying her answer.
(She would have been better served by giving examples instead of stating it bluntly.)
Baylor was happy to see three women in the finals. She told her mom that the game put them through the ringer just like real life. Baylor said it was incredible that her mom made it to the end on one foot. (Jeff was probably half asleep by now) Missy called it the best hug she ever had.
Josh was next and he threw the first hard fastball of the evening, asking Jaclyn if she made it the Final 3 on her own merit or because she was carried by better players. She said she was part of every decision with Jon.
(Somehow, I don’t think Josh meant Jon when he talked about the “better players” that carried Jaclyn.)
Wes simply asked how they felt about playing with their Loved Ones, wasting his valuable airtime once more. At least Missy was able to use that opening to mention that she loved playing with Wes’ dad and that he helped her a lot. Natalie almost cried when mentioning Nadyia but she did manage to say that it made her proud to do this on her own.
Calling himself a student of the game, Jeremy took on the role of the jury’s conscience, telling everyone that Nat played the best game and deserved the title: “Nat balled out so give her the credit.”
(That caused Alec to open his mouth once again, letting more flies in)
Then came Reed and the actor wanted the stage to himself: “Nat, I loved watching you play the game. It was dynamic, at times a little spastic...I just wanted to say congrats. Jaclyn, you were another person I got to enjoy getting to know out here...It was nice playing with you...Missy, you cast yourself as the motherly figure however...you’re true character was... the wicked step-mother of the tribe. It’s the eccentric woman who comes in and makes demands on everyone to the things she feels entitled. She spoils her children...she takes things she isn’t entitled to or didn’t earn herself which was evidenced by the fact you got more gimmies in this game than anyone and performed the worst out of anyone at the challenges...You made the quintessential wicked step-mother move... when you made it clear to the minority alliance...that they weren’t coming to the Bal which is this Final Tribal Council. That feels to me like the fatal flaw in your plan because, unlike life, in the game of Survivor, the outcasts are the one that get the final say. So, in a sweeping moment of poetic justice the people to which you were so rude to... are going to decide your fate this evening. This is why I love fairy tales because they always have a happy ending and the wicked step-mother never wins.”
While this was the highlight of the jury session, it’s funny that it came from Reed, the one that everyone on Hunahpu said created much of the drama and the one who stole from Keith’s bag. The members of Hunahpu told us that Reed was the evil step-son. The funniest thing is that, after all that grandstanding, Reed didn’t even vote for Natalie, going for the one he enjoyed getting to know! Usually, the cameras show us an equal number of votes for each finalist but this time we saw 1 vote for Missy and Natalie but two for Jaclyn, including Reed’s, the only somewhat uncertain vote shown. His vote showed that he was bitter about being outplayed and put his tirade in perspective.

The Story and what I got right
The pre-merge had three important foreshadowing moments:
- In episode 3, Jeremy told the women of Coyopa that they were strong and shouldn’t let the men roll all over them. Only one woman was voted out between that moment and Baylor’s eviction at Final 5.
- In episode 4, the women turned the tables on Drew, forcing Jon to say that they made a good game play. From that moment on, all the key moves were made by the women.
- Hunahpu was the tribe of interest. Even if Coyopa spent all that time in Tribal Council, we never left the drama in Hunahpu.
Those moments told me that a woman would win this season so I was never side-tracked by the good roles that Josh, Jeremy and Jon received and while I could never eliminate Keith for certain, I felt that his edit was all wrong for a winner. A woman from the original Hunahpu tribe did win, just not the one I expected...
What I missed
I’m sure some of you are wondering about the title of this summary. I titled it “The Farmer’s Almanac” for a simple reason: Dale, the farmer, told us how the season would play out if only we had listened to him.
In the premiere, what he said about Nadyia should have clued us in on Natalie’s game: “Nadyia’s been on the Amazing Race. She’s shown she can backstab somebody. I’d rather backstab them before they backstab me.” While Coyopa took care of their devious twinnie, Hunahpu let the other enter into their main alliance and, after Jeremy was voted out, she did backstab them all.
Dale also said that Missy was a ##### and I should have listened. Instead of thinking that the rice monitor didn’t matter since he wasn’t on the jury, Dale expressed succinctly what Reed would use as his final scene.
If that wasn’t enough, we can even go back to the sumo at sea challenge when Dale’s daughter, Kelly, faced off against Jaclyn. Dale told Jeff that he had to root for Jaclyn even if it killed him. Likewise, I think that most of the viewers who wanted to see Jon crowned as Sole Survivor were reduced to rooting for Jaclyn even if they didn’t really want to see her win.
The season was about women power and I should have listened to Dale to figure out which one was the most dangerous.
It was also interesting to look back at the premiere and see that Jeff talked to two players on Hunahpu after their win in the first immunity challenge, asking them how it felt to win a challenge and put their Loved One in danger. Both Missy and Natalie told Jeff that it hurt but that their Loved One could take care of themselves. Natalie was the first Loved One eliminated while Baylor was the last member of a pair voted out. It was a very interesting contrast and the most fascinating aspect of it is probably the fact that Natalie used Nadyia’s elimination as motivation while Missy’s game was hindered by Baylor’s presence.

Josh told us early on that it was important to be the go-to guy in the tribe and Missy was shown being that person in Hunahpu. Everyone trusted her and talked with Missy when it came time to make a decision. I made me fall for Missy’s role but it was mostly part a Journey story since she was a member of the last pair standing and part Tribute for enduring an injury that caused others to quit. While I was still expecting something from her even this late, something like blindsiding Natalie, Missy’s story never showed us the strategic player. Under Jeff’s editing style, the winners always give us strategic confessionals down the stretch.
Natalie’s story reminded me too much of other late surging players. We’ve seen it often, starting with Elisabeth in season 2. A marginal pre-merge character starts playing the game after the merger and many viewers fall for that distraction edit.
Neleh had it in Marquesas while Matt in the Amazon was probably the best example of that editing tactic. The funniest example probably came from another Natalie, the one in Micronesia. She and her Airai “sister” Alexis had sort of a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde story. While the somewhat nice Alexis had some good moments in the pre-merge, the “stone-cold #####” Natalie took over the post merge and had that late surge even if no one fell for it.

While Natalie’s story was weak before the merger, she still had a presence but it could have been only because she was a minor reality TV star. Her story arc was very similar to Hayden’s in the first Blood versus Water season. The editors probably learned from the fans’ reaction to some of the previous late surges. Some of those players became fan favorites and so did Natalie. The audience reacted favorably to her game play and its unpredictability saved a season that many felt was going to be boring.
The idea that the late surge can be more than just a distraction creates a problem for people like me who strives to make their prediction at the merger. The first 3 or four episodes can still be used to predict the impact players, the ones that will shape the post-merge story but the official pick will have to be delayed even if it isn’t as much fun. We’ll see what next season brings.

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
12-29-14, 01:08 PM (EST)

151. "RE: A Look Back at San Juan Del Unsure"

Another season in the books.
Thanks for all the insights and the great reads Michel & FP and everyone's observations. A strange trip indeed.

I should be watched....closely.

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