I do think that Skupin wants to join up with Jonathan. With him around there is someone that could be a greater target than himself.

Skupin knows about the anti-veteran opinion and knows that as long as Penner is there, the tribe will got after Jonathan before him. It's in Skupin's best interest to keep Penner there as long as possible.

IF Lisa indeed flips, than it's likely to be one of the evil 3.

I think Lisa will flip. She told us in the last episode that she's not there to be in the final 5, she's there to win. The comments in the previews make it abundantly clear that she's at the bottom of their totem pole and would be 5th if she sticks with them. Since she cannot improve her position within that alliance, she'll be open to give the others a try.

And the other 4 are a fragmented 4:
- Malcolm and Denise are the only solid pair.
- Carter is all alone now that Jeff is out.
- Penner is a lone wolf who only stayed in last week by winning immunity.

It's a matter of math. Lisa flipping would put the other Tandang at a 4-5 disadvantage, neutralizing the Evil 3. Lisa already has a dialogue going with Penner, and if they can get Carter to work with them, then the 3 of them could go after the tight Malcolm/Denise alliance after they've neutralized the Evil 3. And once the Evil 3 are out of the picture, Skupin could realize his best chance of survival is to align with Lisa and Penner.

Flipping would give Lisa more options, instead of just settling for 5th. And getting Artis out of there would be the first step. I agree that Abi would share her idol with Pete but not with Artis, so he's the safer target.