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"Episode 6 Boot Discussion"
Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-13-11, 09:14 AM (EST)
 
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"Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-11 AT 09:37 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 10-13-11 AT 09:36 AM (EST) Thought I'd get this started before the spoiler comes out and spoils all the (my) fun. If there are future spoilers of who's going when, could someone post just that fact in the thread before anyone starts talking about it and I'll go away? Thanks much! So... I am shocked that the plan they told us about in episode 4 actually happened in episode 5. I was sure they wouldn't tell us Elyse was next if she was actually next! Ah well. I have no clear sense of which tribe is going to TC this week so I think we have to look at both tribes. At Ozzytribe, Ozzy is clearly in trouble. However, he's not going to RI next week - he's got the idol and he will play it. I know some are saying his best move is to go to RI and win some challenges and get back in the game, but how does he know Albert isn't getting voted out next? Or worse, that the challenge will involve a puzzle? (We saw how good he was at puzzles at the first challenge.) It's way too risky to have your game come down to one challenge. Ozzy will use the idol. So he's not getting booted. So this all comes down to what do Whitney and Keith do? If they don't tell anyone, but they know everyone is voting Ozzy, they can decide who goes home. And I think they'd choose Cochran in a second. If they tell everyone that Ozzy has the idol, then that will splinter the newly formed alliance of everyone else. They can't divide their votes unless their is a secondary target. If that happens, I think Whitney is in trouble. Jim, Cochran and Dawn have three votes. They already took out part of one pair - why wouldn't they think it'd be a good idea to take out the other pair? They tell everyone they're voting Ozzy. Instead they vote for Whitney. As long as Ozzy, Whitney and Keith don't vote together, which seems less likely since Ozzy is a "free agent," Whitney goes. Worst case scenario is a tie. Safe: Keith, Dawn, Jim, Ozzy At risk: Whitney, Cochran I am going to start another post to talk about Coachtribe. 
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-13-11, 09:35 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-11 AT 09:36 AM (EST)At Coachtribe, some things became a lot more clear, namely that Albert, Coach and Sophie are tight. Brandon is just tolerated by at least Sophie and maybe Albert (who I am betting finds his antics ridiculous). Mikayla clearly wants Brandon gone, but remains on the outside of the tribe. Coach likes Edna, but Brandon planted a (Russell) seed in her brain two eps ago about her place in the tribe. Rick thinks he's in an alliance of five, but is clearly not on the inside of that alliance. So who would each player vote for? Albert: Edna (weakest player remaining). Otherwise it's Mikalya or Brandon if he's become too annoying.
Mikalyla: Brandon or 'not her' are the choices.
Edna: "Not her"
Rick: Mikayla or Edna (not in the five person alliance)
Sophie: Brandon has to be her first choice. But she'll go with the alliance.
Brandon: Mikayla
Coach: In my view, he is the deciding factor and he could swing lots of different ways. We have been set up for a clash between Brandon and Coach. Brandon questioned Coach a couple of eps ago. He walked away but he was clearly unhappy. Coach has been getting confessionals about how Brandon is frustrating, but he likes him. In the preview, he makes a comment about Brandon reminding him of Russell. I think Brandon, who is impatient, unpredictable and acts without thinking things through, could try to rally the others to vote out Coach because he feels Coach isn't respecting him. Edna could be susceptible and Mikayla may think it's her only chance as much as she hates working with Brandon. He'll probably approach either Rick or Albert. Rick might listen if he believed Stacey's rant about Coach, Albert and Sophie controlling things. But I doubt it. Albert will run back to Coach and Brandon will be screwed. Or what if Coach finds out that Brandon went to Edna and told her what her place in the alliance is? That could be the factor that turns him against Brandon. In any case, I think Brandon has a good chance of going to Redemption Island, where I actually think he'll do well and could be the one who gets back in the game. Other more obvious votes: Mikayla or Edna. If the alliance sticks together, one of those two has to go home. Could be Edna if Coach thinks she's not in his pocket anymore because of the Brandon conversation. Or it could just be Mikayla, who has been on the chopping block forever. Safe: Albert, Sophie, Rick, Coach
At risk: Brandon, Mikayla, Edna
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Blind Freddy 444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-11, 12:50 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
From the E5 Insider videos....(Thanks to James Barber for transcribing)
Maybe some insight into the new 'blood brother (sub)alliance'...
Emphasis mine
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Blood Brothers Sophie admits to being blood brothers with Albert and Coach
"Once we had the hidden immunity idol, and decided who would know about it - which was Albert, Coach, myself - I think that the first real line drawn in the game. We had this beginning alliance with Rick and myself and Albert, but we're like blood brothers now. We know about the hidden immunity idol. We're no longer this pure tribe with an even six-person alliance. It's now the three of us within this kind of semi-superficially unified tribe." (cut) "It's really the three of us calling the shots, but it's not superficial in that we just want to ask them. I think it's real. If they have an opinion it's important now to feel like what they said can go. So yeah, up to a point, if Rick wants Edna out and the three of us don't, I think we could convince him otherwise."
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-11, 09:58 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
Thanks for getting this started Corvis, good thoughts!I agree that so far until we get caps and teasers, they haven't really committed toward one tribe or the other going to TC this week. I will say this: Christine beats Elyse in whatever the RI challenge is. She was shown as saying she wanted to pull a Matt for a reason. Tribe Ozfest: Ozzie declares free agency, great but what does that mean? He still has at least a couple of TC's before the merge and before he can join up with the other tribe. Did he have some helicopter conversations with Coach and have a secret alliance with him to run the game post merge? I also agree that Ozzy is not going to be the one to go to RI from Savaii next. He won't voluntarily go to RI with an idol in his pocket, so there will either be an idol bounce or an idol played. Or will there be? Cochran and Dawn have not been in his alliance. He can't feel back-stabbed by them at all. Perhaps Ozzy bands with them in order to kick Keith's girl Whitney to the curb? If he really is a free agent he means he will go with whoever will keep him in the game 3 more days then 3 more days etc til he makes merge and can flip to the others. Whitney finally had her first confessional this last episode and it was nothing more than to state the obvious "Ozzy and Elyse are tight". I see Whitney as being the most in trouble at Savaii. On Benjamin's tribe the outsiders are Edna and Mikayla. I don't see the alliance of 5 splintering any time soon, especially with Coach now having the idol. I'm not sure which one they would go after first, but for pure strength in challenges, Mikayla has been a star. Did anybody notice her get on her knees and pick up the 2 ounce piece of meat that Rick had dropped? (OK, I have no way of knowing it was 2 ounces but it looked to be about that, and that was the margin they won by). I'd say Edna is most vulnerable followed by Mikayla and that the core 5 won't waiver pre-merge. 
I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-11, 02:32 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-11 AT 03:40 PM (EST)I agree that Whitney and Keith have some power, but they could very well be only semi-safe. I think Savaii does have a solid five member alliance, with sub-alliances of two and three embedded within. For the time being at least. And if they're smart (what the flaw in that thinking?) and lucky they'll try and keep it to the merge. From what we've seen, all Ozzie knows is that the TC vote was unexpected. The votes were split with he and Elyse voting for Cochran, Whitney and Keith voting for Dawn, and Dawn, Jim and Cochran voting for Elyse. So although Ozzy knows who voted for Cochran, he may be confused about the rest. And he may not realize that Whitney and Keith were the two Dawn voters, not that that really matters. Surely everyone else knows the score, but Jim, Cochran and maybe even Dawn may not view Keith and Whitney as a separate alliance, they may just see that they wanted to disguise their vote but still get Elyse out, and think that they are all 5 basically still in accord. Which puts Ozzy in a very shaky position if they go to TC before the merge. And the promo at the end of last night's episode shows Savaii way behind in the next challenge. I think Ozzy (or at least his HI) is toast unless something is shown to indicate Savaii wins the next challenge. If he uses it, and if the others aren't smart, it could be that whoever he votes for could go to RI. If Cochran (IMO the more perceptive - except for his lack of self perception) see that as a possibility, he might set Keith or Whitney (my bet) as the fall back position goat.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-13-11, 11:21 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-11 AT 02:50 PM (EST)There are no spoilers out there right now, so far as I know, about who is going when. Just one obscure titbit, too obscure to be any use. So, I agree, we cannot draw any conclusions about which tribe visits TC next. Risk assessments: Ozzietribe (Savaii) Ozzy. Has the HII and has now been de-throned, cannot be blindsided. He only goes to RI if he decides to go there taking the HII with him, hoping to get back in the game. Not gonna happen, he would rather waste the HII than be voted off again holding onto it. Safe. (They should have switched targets and sent Ozzy to Redemption when they had the chance.) Cochran. He's been number one on Ozzy's hit list every time, Jim has saved him every time, his time may be running out. Jim cannot save him again unless he somehow works out a way to break up the Keith/Whitney couple. At risk. Dawn. Even though she wasn't part of the Ozzy alliance, Ozzy likes her and has considered her a good potential ally. Safe. Jim. Shifty Jim has been the real mastermind at Savaii, subtly controlled the first two votes and was blatantly in control of the third. Ozzy in his anger could shift targets from Cochran to Jim. Promos tried hard to make it seem Cochran was the new mastermind, but the edit shows otherwise. At risk. Keith. Keith is in a safe for the moment spot, though the throw-away votes put the Keith/Whitney couple at higher risk. Keith is too valuable for Jim to consider targetting him, and Keith/Whitney can control the boot next time as long as Jim is aiming at Ozzy. Safe. Whitney. With Elyse out of the way, Whitney is next in line in breaking up couples strategy, if Jim sees it. Ozzy might go along with it to stay in the game and keep the HII for future use. At risk. No matter how you cut it, Savaii is a seriously divided tribe down in numbers, they should be thinking about the merge but they're all just running their own games. Coachtribe (Upolu) Coach. Now has the HII and would have to be blindsided. With Albert and Sophie sharing knowledge of the HII, and considering it partially their own, that's very unlikely. Troubles for Coach are: (1) Brandon is a loose cannon who could turn on Coach, (2) Edna was disillussioned about her friendship with Coach thanks to the loose cannon, (3) Rick, though he's stayed quiet about it, thinks the Dragonslayer stuff is silly, and probably the Benjamin thing as well, and what's the point of worrying about what gets said at the arena anyway. Safe. Albert. Other targets are ahead of him. Safe. Brandon. Loose cannon is at risk if TPTB get fed up with him and decide he cannot be trusted. As long as Christine is at RI there is no buffer zone between one potential turncoat and another. He does deliver in challenges, though, so if Upolu goes to Tribal this time, back even in numbers with Savaii, they'll want to keep him in order to get back up in numbers, as long as he follows orders. Safe this round but potentially at risk in the next. Edna. The weakest link in terms of challenge strength, the most logical boot if Upolu goes to Tribal this time. Very at risk. Mikayla. Outside the alliance but has been making inroads with Albert and Sophie, poised to be brought into the fold. Potentially holds the swing vote if there is an anti-Coach rebellion, would have to side with Coach (Albert and Sophie). Her biggest danger is if the Brandon/Mikayla nonsense resurfaces. At risk. Rick. Brandon is between him and the boot. Safe. Sophie. Has quietly put herself in a position where she's holding the tribe together, backing the alliance but prepared to cut Brandon out if need be. Safe. Upolu is a very solid tribe for the moment, trouble spots are only that Brandon is his own worst enemy, Coach is his own worst enemy.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-11, 01:45 PM (EST)
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10. "Re-assessment" |
After this posthttp://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7745.shtml#16 #16 on the merge thread, I have to move Mikayla into: At risk. I still think Edna is Very At Risk looking at challenge strength, but Coach: "The main alliance - and we kept on saying it's an alliance of five, but in my mind it's an alliance of six. We'll start with the alliance of five. We've got myself, Sophie, Albert, Brandon, and Rick. The sixth is like my right-hand man out here, like my assistant coach. Those are the six people in the alliance. The Strong Six, I like to call them." Coach thinks of Edna as his assistant coach and wants to keep her if possible. He may make the hard decision and cut her loose if Sophie and Albert make the case for keeping Mikayla, but he'd rather take Edna to the merge.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-11, 11:23 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
A few weeks back we were discussing a double boot? is that in the cards premerge? I didn't see anything on TDT's calendar
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 00:22 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
JP mentioned something about RI having no more than 2 people at a time for most of the game.The thought is that with 18 there will still need to be a double boot but more likely something that happens post merge. I still think they could do one pre-merge, or more like right before merge, where RI could have a one-time 3way challenge to re-enter the game. If that's the case, this week would still be safe from double-bootdom. Whereas Ep7 could be a pre-merge double boot to set up for an exciting re-entry opener. I also faintly remember a spoiler (Dani?) saying that there would not be 2 double boots. But don't quote me, nor blame Dani if that isn't the case.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-14-11, 01:00 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
How Jiffy spinned it, actually, was that having eight players still in it going into the finale, four on Redemption and four in StuffedAnimal, was too many, so they decided to have only two-person duels on Redemption this season. Totally ignoring the reality that Boring Island is just bo-ring on top of being game destructive. (Honestly, the rancor on Boring Island this season may be amusingly childish, but it still doesn't impact on real gaming, Boring Island is a fundamentally flawed idea, the worst they ever had.)In any event, how do they deal with the reality that they have 18 players in a 14 episode game, and no one was actually eliminated in the first two episodes? About time this got started. 01. 18 to 17/1
02. 17/1 to 16/2
03. 16/2 to 16/1 to 15/2
04. 15/2 to 15/1 to 14/2
05. 14/2 to 14/1 to 13/2 (projecting)
06. 13/2 to 13/1 to 12/2
07. 12/2 to 12/1/ to 11/2
08. 11/2 to 11/1 (merge, return), 12/0 to 11/??? With any luck they dump Boring Island at the merge like they should have anyway, but I doubt we'll get that lucky.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 01:54 AM (EST)
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14. "Edna or Mikayla?" |
"Free Agent" – Feeling betrayed by their tribe, one castaway reveals a potentially game-changing secret, and appalled by the lack of loyalty within his tribe, another castaway threatens to leave the game. Meanwhile, on Redemption Island, Christine battles Elyse to try and win her fourth duel in a row and stay alive in the game, on SURVIVOR: SOUTH PACIFIC, Wednesday, Oct. 19 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.At Savaii, Ozzy, the self proclaimed free-agent, feels betrayed and reveals his Hidden Immunity Idol, while at Upolu someone (probably Brandon) is …”appalled by the lack of loyalty and threatens to leave the game”. Loyalty and leaving the game, sound like the kinds of discussions that come up when a tribe is faced with a trip to TC…sounds like Upolu loses the IC. The previews for this week show the Savaii tribe clearly behind in the IC, which is usually an indication of misdirection…Savaii probably comes from behind to win this week. Edna and Mikayla both disappeared from the confessionals this week, often a precursor to TC boot. While the promos are once again focused on Brandon, who seems to be getting the Phillip edit. The insider clips have been used for misdirection this season and this week we are shown Coach talking about his alliance of 5 and his “assistant coach”…Edna. The clip makes it appear Edna is safe, but the misdirection could mean she’s in trouble. Both Edna and Mikayla have been on the outside, but if this week’s clue talks about "a lack of loyalty", it could be Brandon still unhappy about the tribe, not agreeing to vote Mikayla over Edna. Leaning toward an Edna boot...
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 07:24 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Edna or Mikayla?" |
As always, Krautboy, you give a logical reason to consider an Upolo loss at TC. I really had been leaning toward a Savaii loss. The preview promo seems to point to the continued ineptitude of Cochran in challenges, with a large lead for Upolu. Still leaning that way. But, since there is an outside chance, I suppose, as others have noted, if Upolu does go to TC, I agree, Edna is the one to go. I certainly agree that the one that talks about a lack of loyalty and threatens to quit the game HAS to be the drama queen, Brandon. I agree that he's most likely whining and sulking and crying about not booting Mikayla over Edna.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 07:33 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
I agree with FloPo that Savai'i is losing the challenge. The three Upolu are already on their mat and have passed the baton to the finishers, while the three Savai'i are struggling.I just wonder whether Ozzy decides he may have formed another loyal alliance after he announces to all he has the idol. Free agent seems to imply that he's available to the highest bidder. I think he might offer an idol to be shared. In that case, his new allies wouldn't want him to play it. It is still possible that he gets booted without playing his big commodity. I felt like the fishing scene was like a "farewell to Ozzy" -- especially followed by Cochrane's dismissive comment about "middle aged Ozzy" and all the shots of him lazing around. Ouch. Just seems like the end of the line for him, at least within this tribe. I agree that Christine's story has continuing life and Elyse never had any. I have always felt that Whitney is a long term character. Could be wrong of course, but that's how I feel. Also I think that with her dating Keith, either both will make the merge or neither. And if they boot Keith this cycle they are nuts. 
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 09:36 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
Redemption Island, and the possibility that one of the next two boots will finally beat Christine and get back in the game, makes it hard to figure.Cochran has gotten a lot of attention at Savaii, but his self-defeating introspective nature makes him seem like an unlikely returnee. Is he getting the edit for appreciation (thanks for playing, wish you had lasted longer) or because he goes deep in the game? Jim is clearly the mastermind manipulator at Savaii despite the attention Cochran has received, why hasn't he gotten more attention? The musical cues suggest he falls at some point, and he is in danger of being thrown under the bus. Ozzy has been de-throned, that is enough to satisfy the de-pantsed cue. Holding the HII it would be just ego if he allowed himself to be sent to Redemption, even though he reasonably could think he could win the rest of the duels and get back into the game. He's never been a coldly rational player but he also isn't a quitter, and taking the walk to RI when he doesn't have to would be a virtual quit, doesn't fit the profile. We should pay attention to promos over the weekend to see if the Coach v Ozzy season theme continues or drops out.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 02:42 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
Jim is clearly the mastermind manipulator at Savaii despite the attention Cochran has received, why hasn't he gotten more attention? The musical cues suggest he falls at some point, and he is in danger of being thrown under the bus.Yes, I agree, Jim is a really smart cookie, if you ask me. Did you see in the last episode how when Dawn and Whitney came back from RI and they told them that Coach was running the show, and then Ozzy says that the smart move for Coach would be to cut Albert next....did you see Jim's face, and he immediately questioned why it would be smart to go after Albert and then Ozzy answered him, because of the merge....Jim was so on top of that comment, and I agree with Jim's assessment. Then he used those comments of Ozzy to do his dirty work with Keith, when convincing him to vote out Elyse. Jim is playing, imo, a great game. In my opinion he's sharp, perceptive, and dead on. Clearly, he is not getting the edit that Cochroach is... One very interesting thing to do now is to go and watch this insider video from the TC where Papa Bear is voted out. It's very interesting watching it in retrospect....especially noting Jim's edit. He sort of grimaced when they spoke of Ozzy being the leader....and another interesting comment by Cochran was when he noted that "searching for the HII is not necessarily the way to avoid the chopping block....especially noting Ozzy. Alot of telling shots of Keith as well. I have a feeling that none of Ozzy, Jim, or Keith will be around at the end.....interesting in retrospect.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 12:15 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
good comments everyone I too think Savii goes to TC...the flutter of activity after Elyse, the free agent. The ? remains will Ozzy use his HI or keep it How does JCD respond after Ozzy tells them of HI? Do they stick together? Splitting the vote would require KW and presumably JCD would want W to go if Oz uses his HI. K would not be into booting his lady. Also KW were shown, and W got her first conf., about not betraying Ozzy all the way in ep 5. Do they go back to him in ep. 6. Does Ozzy spurn them (Jiffy did say in EW interview Ozzy's social game is bad) and say I'm on my own--do what you will? So basically you have 3 "alliances" of 3-JCD 2-KW 1-Ozw/HI
I think if your JCD have to work under assumption that Oz will use HI (although he could hold on to it thinking he could re-enter at merge from RI...he has the ego to think he'd win them all) and not vote for him and instead vote for W. KW try to get Oz on board for a tie vote but he won't work with them. Then KW don't know how to vote to avoid W boot and have to guess who Oz will vote for would he contine to vote Coch-TRAIN or would he switch to Jim or Keith as his betrayers? So it could be a 3-2-1 vote. or a 3-3 vote if KW guess correctly I'm not sure if it's W but I'm leaning towards her as boot. But Jim is my 2nd guess
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 01:04 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
If it comes down to a revote to break a tie, I'd say it would be a good bet the two of JCD would flip and keep the HII for the tribe at the merge.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 05:13 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
Given that they are using an anti-OFG Theory approach to the previews this season -- the boot is never shown -- then from what we have so far Ozzy, Cochran, Coach and Brandon should all be safe. Of course they could change up their m.o. at any time but I do think it's likely these four are safe for this week. Cochran maybe less so than the other three, but still probably okay.I don't think Dawn is particularly getting a long-term edit. To me she's sort of equivalent to Edna on Upolu: she's had a little bit of a storyline surrounding her, so she's not a complete non-entity, but on the other hand she's in a very weak position in the tribe. Other than Elyse, who is now gone, who got votes on Savaii this week? Cochran and Dawn. From Ozzy, Keith and Whitney. Jim successfully pulled everyone he needed into the Elyse boot, but now Jim doesn't really need Cochran and Dawn anymore. Ozzy doesn't have any power now except the hii. His revealing to the entire tribe that he has it should be an inducement for people to align with him, at least temporarily, imo. So I could see the original alliance minus Elyse re-establishing. Cochran might worm his way in as a fifth, if he's observant, and keeps his tie to Jim going. I am not discounting Dawn as the boot if Savaii goes to TC this week. I am thinking it will be either her or Edna.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 05:26 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-11 AT 05:27 PM (EST)Putting this here instead of vidcap thread as it's boot releated: "Coach (camera confessional): If I'm gonna coach this team, I need the people in the heat of battle to listen to me." This sounds like something someone would say after they lost a challenge because no one listened to him. Evidence Coachtribe is going to TC?
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 05:53 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
So Edna or Mikayla or Brandon? I could see any of them going.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 06:20 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-11 AT 09:09 PM (EST)Yes, Corvis, you are right. Coach noting that no one listens to him in the heat of battle clearly means that they lose the challenge and will go to RI. ETA: I meant TC! Color me surprised. I thought for sure that it would be Ozzy....so, I suppose, he'll have plenty of time to be the lone wolf next week when he is most likely booted. So, I don't think Brandon is going anywhere. So, for me it's either Mikayla or Edna. We all know that Coach considers Edna his "assistant Coach", but she is the weakest link in the challenges. If Edna were to question Coach at all as to his loyalty to her, it could turn Coach against her....If they lose, will Coach want to kick Mikayla? I don't think so. The next challenge if they win will mean that they will be up one at the merge....it's critical to win the next challenge. So, my vote is Edna will be toast.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 07:46 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-11 AT 07:59 PM (EST)I made an argument that Coach is the one with the lack of loyalty issues in the episode topic (why do we have two topics, it feels to me like it scatters the arguement.) This comment about heat of battle could be connected to the loyalty clue, as sounds like Coach is miffed about not getting some sort of respect he thinks he is due. Full promo quote: Announcer: Are these two leaders facing mutiny? Coach (camera confessional): If I'm gonna coach this team, I need the people in the heat of battle to listen to me. I think that the concept of mutiny brings up loyalty. The leader has the most dependence on loyalty, as he relies on it to bring a group of individuals under his control. Coach wasn't listened to when he was trying to Coach. They didn't recognize him as the authority ... will he grandstand and threaten to quit the game? Coach? Grandstand? Make empty threats of making a big gesture? Naaah ... This caught my eye although it may be nothing.
Is Coach telling Mikayla something here? His body language suggests that to me. He is not in position to take off the way Albert is as he waits to go. 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 09:23 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
Yes, it sure looks like he is telling her something there, OFG. And, I think you were right on, when we were all thinking that the loyalty issue was Brandon. I do believe, now, that it's Coach.I was really on board with an Ozzy boot this week, but now with the new promo, I have changed my tune, I suppose Ozzy can wait till next week. In the heat of battle can only refer to the challenge, imho. If they had won the challenge, his mood would be much better and there would be no talk of "if they had listened to me in the heat of battle" talk. And, there is this vidcap... 
Sure looks like that is not a happy face mid-challenge...
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-11, 12:29 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Episode 6 Boot Discussion" |
Not only that, but also look at Sophie on the right side. If you blow it up, Sophie appears to have her hands up on her head as if to say "oh no!" or "oh geez..."
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 09:21 PM (EST)
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38. "Upolu and Edna?" |
Feels like we are getting closer to a consensus.So to summarize: Vidcap misdirection: clearly showing Upolu tribe way ahead in the IC... At Upolu, a threat to leave the game...a threat one would make going to TC. Coach's comment about no one listening in the heat of battle, suggests a losing battle at the IC. Mikayla and Edna diasppearing from last week's confessionals. Brandon getting the Phillip edit to distract from the more logical Edna boot, when faced with a must win IC next week heading into the merge... Misdirection of the insider clips, suggesting the assistant coach, Edna is safe as number six in the allaince. It all seems to be pointing to an Upolu loss and an Edna boot...
Krautboy
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-11, 09:39 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Upolu and Edna?" |
Agree. Coach tempted the gods of hubris in between bites of pork, proclaiming Upolu was on top of the game. It's Survivor, never ever ever tempt the gods of hubris. I should rewatch and write down exactly what he said.Looks like Coach gets miffed at something during the challenge, probably nothing really but it upsets him, but the alliance is divided because a Mikayla boot doesn't make sense for challenge strength, blah blah blah, Brandon cries, stomps his feet, wah wah wah, nonsense nonsense, then they go to TC and boot Edna and try to give her a hug.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-11, 03:25 PM (EST)
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51. "Hubris" |
Coach: Best thing about today's challenge -- beep beep! -- we're back in the driver's seat, baby! We own it now!
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-11, 02:19 AM (EST)
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43. "Mikayla" |
I feel like Mikayla is a strong boot candidate. If Coach is mad, it cannot be at Edna, because she sat out. Sure she is small and weak, but she can have done nothing to screw up what appears to have been an awesome lead.As I said, we have at least one shot of Coach interacting with Mikayla. She may not follow directions. Say Sophie and Albert go against Coach and want Edna out instead, and accuse him of catering to Brandon or protecting Edna, any of a number of things could come up to flip Coach out. I do not see any big tribal controversy if Coach is on board with Edna going. It could be either of them, but there isn't a lot of room left for another bootee, especially if they do merge evenly. I'm in the camp that Mikayla will be a pre-merge boot. Edna could last longer. But maybe Mikayla will be the last boot prior to the merge; that could well be.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-11, 02:58 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Mikayla" |
Listening to Stacey podcast (Cesternino) and reading interviews:She really dislikes Coach, Albert, and Sophie. She thought Albert, Sophie and Mikayla were the alliance at first. She can't abide Edna at all. She liked Rick.
She thought Mikayla and Brandon were all right.
She loved Christine of course. She and Rick were the oldest and she liked his values.
Stacey has strong opinions so not sure Loser Lodge time would soften her up, but she sure hasn't softened towards Edna. I think that Brandon's paranoia was not wrong.
Sophie and Albert have Mikayla as their side person.
Coach has Edna.
Brandon has no one but Coach and that is shaky.
Who knows where Rick is at? If Coach loses Edna and Mikayla stays, I could see how he becomes a minority in his alliance. I think he has motivation to keep Edna ... but who knows, Coach can turn on a dime for all his talk of constancy.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-11, 07:59 AM (EST)
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46. "Upolu: Mikayla or Edna" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-15-11 AT 08:01 AM (EST)Coach is ranting in the confessional...they don't listen to me in the heat of the battle. We see Coach trying to tell Mikayla something...Coach would prefer to keep Edna, as would Brandon. Sophie and Albert are closer to Mikayla than Edna. We heard Mikayla mocking Edna earlier.They will favor strength, and it's logical if they want to keep strength for the next challenge that could be the challenge right before the merge. They must get the numbers for post merge. Somehow, I think that Rick may favor Mikayla as well, but I don't know. Would Coach be ranting in a confessional if he wasn't mad about something? He's mad that maybe Mikayla didn't listen to him in the challenge and they lost it, and/or he's mad because now they want to boot his assistant Coach....where's their loyalty? Would Coach be mad if they wanted to boot Mikayla? Food for thought... Can we post the boot thread now and award points for correct answers prior to Max Fischer's announcement? For all of those that want to vote early.....they can always do a vote change later, nothing is set in stone!
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-11, 03:06 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Mikayla" |
Sophie likes Edna and did also consider her part of a Solid Six, was upset that Brandon told Edna otherwise. Sophie is more practical than Coach, however, willing to consider reforming the alliance, though it has been expressed in terms of Brandon's actions. If she takes the practical approach to challenge strength and sides with Mikayla, Albert (her buddy) will as well. Coach and Brandon wanting to ditch Mikayla, it comes down to Rick. Rick has mostly been hidden in the edit but his early confessional indicates he is skeptical of the Dragonslayer stuff, and he was shown to be on the periphery when Coach got the Benjamin news and went Coach 1.0 about it.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-11, 01:56 PM (EST)
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50. "Unspoiled Boot Prediction Sub=Thread" |
Sort a voting sub-thread to make predictions on Duel, RC/IC and Boot.My current thinking is Elyse loses the duel, Christine remains on RI a thorn in the Dragon's paw. Upolu loses the challenge. Edna gets the boot but the alliance is divided between her and Mikayla before going to TC.
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Blind Freddy 444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-16-11, 03:40 PM (EST)
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59. "Mikayla xElyse" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-11 AT 03:47 PM (EST)Sunday afternoon thoughts...
(cowboy theme today)  Upolu hits the trail to TC after blowing a huge lead via obfuscatory coaching. Mikayla is bucked off at the Benjamin TC rodeo. Christine has true grit and outlasts Elyse sending her off to the Loser Lodge salon saloon. Edit to add more Western flavor
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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10-16-11, 08:54 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: Unspoiled Boot Prediction Sub=Thread" |
FWIW- The reason I picked Edna and not Mikayla is because the merge is coming and Coach wants to be in the drivers seat at the merge. Mikayla has downright rocked the challenges (if she hadn't picked up the dirty pork last week they may not have won, plus other past challenges) even if she happens to be the one to blow it this time. I get the feeling her failure is misdirection from the boring Edna boot.BR: Just one example, Dolly got booted her episode even though she sat out.
I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-16-11, 09:20 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: Unspoiled Boot Prediction Sub=Thread" |
Okay thanks, I figured it probably happened at least once, though it's pretty rare. I'm impressed you remembered!
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