Welcome to the SOTS for episode 4, Survivor: South Pacific. The SOTS, State of the Spoiling is a one stop place to go and get a collective summary of what we've tried to uncover regarding the next episode of Survivor. It usually notes not only what we here at Blows have uncovered, but any interesting discoveries found on other boards as well. Please consider joining in and volunteering to do one this season, the more folks to contribute, the better our boards are. Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1 Colleen,

Be nice and play fair!!

So far on Survivor: The first week of the show opened with 2 returning fan favorites, Coach and Ozzy vowing to play a smarter game. A very close first challenge was won by Coach and company sending the Savaii's back to vote off their weakest Savaii, Semhar. Since ep one, it seems as if they are taking turns winning the IC and going to TC. Ep 2 sent Christine packing, and in episode 3, Papa Bear was toast. Papa Bear warned Jim that it was he that needed to watch out because he was in the five, while Dawn noted, the "five" changes throughout the day...we'll see. Meanwhile, on RI, Christine dominated Semhar in the balance challenge and sent her out of the game. Coach was disappointed. Now, onto this week...

Episode 4, SURVIVALISM

Preview Promo

The Preview Promo teased:

Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor...at Savaii, the new mastermind is...
Cochran (shaking hands with Jim): Alright, it's a done deal.

Probst: ...Cochran.

Cochran (camera confessional): This is the perfect opportunity to devastate Ozzy.

Jim (talking to Cochran, making boxing movements): It's a Survivor move.

Cochran: Yeah, yeah, I know.

Probst: And Brandon's paranoia hits new heights.

Brandon (talking to Coach): We've got a problem on our hands. Albert, Mikayla and Sophie have something going on.

Sophie (camera confessional): Brandon is just a small Russell Hantz.

There are two story lines going on here. First is at Savaii where it looks like there will a betrayal of an alliance. Jim, who was heard last week telling Keith, "I don't see any of the five flipping at all!". Then this week, we immediately are teased that he's the first to flip...Here he is making a deal with the devil...

...err....the Mastermind, errr....Cochran...

and, it appears that Ozzy is the target of the plan.

Next, Brandon is up to his antics to cause more drama....he's tattle-tailing on his alliance mates, Sophie, Albert and Mikayla to Coach. Sophie thinks he's a troll.

Misdirection Clues

The clues were posted in the Episode 4, title thread by Squid Pro Quo. Here they are:

1. A CASTAWAY TURNS ON HIS ALLIANCE AND TEAMS UP WITH AN UNLIKELY TRIBE MEMBER

CHEAT TWEET: Too soon? A castaway turns on his alliance and teams up with an unlikely tribe member. #Survivor 10/5 @ 8pmET/PT http://bit.ly/qHnn7b

I posted these together, as they are pertaining to the same event. This confirms what we surmised in the preview vidcaps. Jim is making a deal with the new mastermind, Cochran, who is also the unlikely tribe member. I love the cheat tweet as it suggests, Too soon? As this tweet is from Jiffy, and Jiffy tends to spill ALL, I'll go with, YES, it will be too soon and it may spell disaster for either: a) Jim, b) the tribe, or c) BOTH.

2. One castaway is brought to tears when confronted with his past during an emotional tribal council.

Again, this confirms what we see in the preview vidcaps, that clearly the drama queen troll, Brandon, will be a cry baby at TC when he confronts his demons of the past because it's going to be an emotional TC. In other words, Brandon is NOT going to get his way and he's going to be crying about it.

Brownroach notes a very disturbing trend regarding the misdirection clues, here.

Episode 2: A CASTAWAY'S STRUGGLE WITH HIS INNER DEMONS COULD SEVER AN EARLY ALLIANCE
Episode 3: One castaway reveals a shocking secret to their tribe
Episode 4: One castaway is brought to tears when confronted with his past

UGHHHHH! Please get another story line going!!!

3. On Redemption Island, the second castaway is sent home.

D'uh! Christine vs. Papa Bear....From the editing last week, I'd say Christine will pull a "Matt" and go on a 2 episode winning streak. We'll see.

PROMOS

The promo was posted in Tribephyl's Vidcap Thread.

The alliance betrayer, Jim, is featured making his deal with Cochran, we get shades of the lifting challenge, and more drama with Brandon.

Announcer: The new Survivor is better than ever. Coach and Ozzy are fierce competitors.

Ozzy (camera confessional): I try to think a few steps ahead.
Announcer: But can they keep their tribe united?
Brandon (talking to Coach): We've got a problem on our hands.
Coach: Stop! This game is going to get so much crazier than this.
Announcer: And loyal?
Jim (talking with Cochran): I hate doing this. Do I make a move against Ozzy?
Cochran: I've been dying to be a part of something like this.
Jim (Jim and Cochran shake hands): Me and you?
Cochran: Done deal.
Announcer: Just wait...
Jim (holding sand bag weights): Ohhhhh!
Announcer: ...til you see what happens.
Mikayla: Hold it, baby!
Coach (camera confessional): This is my game and I can't let anybody mess it up.

Ozzy...

...is telling us that he's thinking steps ahead...but is he? Will he be blindsided with ANOTHER idol in his possession? Sure looks like it's headed that way. Here is Jim weighing the options...

Can Coach keep his tribe united when Brandon is trying to polarize them? He threatens that it's his game and he can't let anybody mess it up....

...but, how does he plan to do that?

From the vidcaps, we see that the RC/IC is indeed the old "classic" weight lifting challenge. Where in the past, 3 tribe members are chosen to balance a long pole over their back and shoulders while the other tribe places weight on either side of the pole until the daw cannot stand it any longer. In the past, Colby and Mike Skupin broke their poles in Australia, while Rupert and JT have tied for holding the most weight of 220 pounds each. Here are the participants for Upolu:

We deduce that it's Stacey as we see pics of Edna, Mikayla, and Sophie on the side lines cheering.

For the Savaii tribe we have:

and either Ozzy or Keith. We are not shown. I'll go with Ozzy. While Keith looks strong, he's also very tall. Ozzy is strong and short, which, imo is better for the weight challenge. He's a better fulcrum. He may be short on strategic game play, but he's not short on challenge game play.

As we have all noted in the Intro Thread, this picture really spells out the results:

Most likely Ozzy, Jim compete and lift more weight collectively than Albert and Troll-boy, enabling the last woman standing for Savaii, Dawn, to outlast Stacey. Victory for Savaii!

CONCLUSIONS

Albert, Jim, and Ozzy could all be in contention for beating the 220# record. I wouldn't be surprised if it's indeed Ozzy that breaks the record. HIs passion to win will beat those impossible odds, at least in this challenge.

Corvis has started a very nice thread on boot discussion. So far there is logical rationale for a Mikayla, a Stacey, and an Edna boot. Mikayla is pitted against Brandon, and in order to keep peace in the tribe and the alliance, Mikayla could be targeted. Edna is really the smallest and weakest, so she could be toast. Finally, Stacey, while trying to be quiet and get along, she was aligned with Christine, Coach's nemesis. They are all three on the outside of the stargazer alliance, so most likely one of them is toast.

Results:

Combined RC/IC:

SAVAII

RI Winner:

RI Bootee:

Episode 4 Boot:

Don't forget and check out Veruca Salt's editing thread located here.

As for our spoiler de jour, Maxx Fisher, I would argue that so far he really isn't able to spoil too much. So far, I think the editors have laid out the drama and clues in such a way that it's not too difficult to predict the results. Fingers are crossed that Maxx will choose to post his picks later on Wednesday, a la Snewser, and let us all have our fun. Stay tuned, I think there is hope!

Don't forget to peruse all of our threads, and please VOTE, when the thread is up!

If we ever do get press images for this week, I'll edit and post.