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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-22-11, 05:50 PM (EST) "Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" LAST EDITED ON 09-22-11 AT 05:52 PM (EST) As posted by they say at Mess Hall: HOPING TO AVOID EXPULSION TO REDEMPTION ISLAND, ONE CASTAWAY MAKES A LAST-DITCH EFFORT TO KEEP ALIVE IN THE GAME, ON "SURVIVOR: SOUTH PACIFIC," WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 28 CHEAT TWEET: A castaway lies about finding the idol to try and avoid Redemption Island. Will it work? #Survivor Wed @ 8pmET/PT http://bit.ly/nqROwA "Reap What You Sow" — One castaway reveals a shocking secret to their tribe while another castaway, in a last-ditch effort to keep alive in the game, devises a plan and pretends to find the hidden Immunity Idol. Meanwhile, on Redemption Island, the first castaway is sent home, on SURVIVOR: SOUTH PACIFIC, Wednesday, Sept. 28 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network. So, if the clues are divided between the two camps then the Savaii's must be going to TC because with the water challenge, clearly the sexist Hantz kid is the one that reveals the shocking secret to the tribe as we see him shirtless in the challenge. So, in the promo, they lead us to believe that they are talking about Ozzy, but maybe they are talking about the one that devises the plan and pretends to find the HII...it has to be Cochran or Papa Bear. Ozzy tells us in the preview promo that I'm not gonna tell anyone I have the idol. What if Whitney is talking about the one that is desperate to stay in the game so he pretends to have the HII...he's up to something....this tells us that it's a "he". Since we hear Jim say, what if he does have the idol? Why not protect against that? While the promo is making it look like they are talking about Ozzy, they are actually talking about the liar. So that tells us it has to be either Cochran, Keith, or Papa Bear that is the liar. I highly doubt it is Keith...leaving Cochran or Papa Bear.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Outfrontgirl 09-22-11 1    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Flowerpower 09-22-11 2        RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Outfrontgirl 09-25-11 19            RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Flowerpower 09-26-11 25  RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Belle Book 09-22-11 3  RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Scarlett O Hara 09-22-11 4  RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Brownroach 09-22-11 5    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" KObrien_fan 09-22-11 6        RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Flowerpower 09-23-11 8            RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Brownroach 09-23-11 14    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" dabo 09-22-11 7  RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Brownroach 09-23-11 9    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" PepeLePew13 09-23-11 10        RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Brownroach 09-23-11 11            RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" PepeLePew13 09-23-11 12                RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Brownroach 09-23-11 13                    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Belle Book 09-23-11 15                        RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Scarlett O Hara 09-23-11 16                            RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Belle Book 09-24-11 17                    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Outfrontgirl 09-25-11 20                        RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Outfrontgirl 09-25-11 21                            RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" KObrien_fan 09-26-11 22                        RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Brownroach 09-26-11 23                            RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" KObrien_fan 09-26-11 24                                Thoughts... Flowerpower 09-26-11 26                                    RE: Thoughts... Brownroach 09-26-11 29                                RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Brownroach 09-26-11 27                                    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Krautboy 09-26-11 28                                        RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Outfrontgirl 09-26-11 31  RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Outfrontgirl 09-24-11 18    RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow" Belle Book 09-26-11 30

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-22-11, 07:06 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" If the blurbs are split again (and last week they were), then it is Savai'i going to RI, but I want to throw it out their that Stacey is going to be on bootomatic status at Upolu. She could easily try to cook up fear of the idol, as she saw how they feared Christine. The problem for Stacey though is that a split vote is not a problem with Upolu, so they can throw votes at her and someone else, and as she doesn't have it, she will be gone. The only possible problem with a split vote might be that they could end up voting someone out they want to keep. They really only want Stacey out (except for Brandon and his fixation). But as you point out, the promos show us Savai'i discussing the HII, so I expect you are right on as usual. We heard from Jim who the next three gone will be if the alliance holds. We also heard that Ozzy sees an ally in Dawn and that he may want to give Cochran more of a shot. Also Dawn and Cochran both could be assets in mental challenges. So that leaves Papa Bear as a likely target, as the oldest and less fit male, with Cochran as another strong possibility, as Jim seems to feel nothing for him. I do not see Keith feeling vulnerable at this point. Both Mark and John have the mindset where they could cook up a fake idol. John as student of the game, and Mark as an ex-cop (was he a detective?) could easily think of that plan. Actually it is getting old, Stephanie used it last season. But will he make a fake idol? Sounds like no.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-22-11, 08:25 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Hiya OFG! Thrilled to see you as always! Did you notice that last episode there was NO OFG Theory to apply. I really believe that is the first time ever that our boot was not seen in the promos...I mean Christine was seen from afar in the shots of Crate Escape, but wow. With the preview vidcap, I notice that there is no siting of any of our likely boot candidates as well.... I think that they are finally on to us! With that said, clearly Ozzy is the misdirection. But, I have to tell you that seeing that promo did indeed worry me a bit. Never have they blatantly mislead us in the preview....while talking about another, show someone else. I think that USUALLY when they show someone on screen and then you hear voice overs talking about them, usually they are indeed talking about them. In other words, I don't recall them manipulating the promo quite so much. What do you think? Last night the one thing that Jiffy noted of worth in his tweets was that when Ozzy found the idol he noted...HUGE . HUGE. HUGE. Will he know what to do with it this time? Made me feel like it will lead to a big event...so, knowing Ozzy and his other games, this preview promo raised a big red flag for me when we heard Whitney saying, "he's up to something" and we see Ozzy going off in to the jungle...   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-25-11, 02:44 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" >>> HUGE . HUGE. HUGE. Will he know what to do with it this time? Made me feel like it will lead to a big event. Then again, Jeff could be one of those guys who thinks if he talks HUGE that women, uh, fans, will believe a BIG event is coming. But it might not be a HUGE event, might be a fizzle -- he just wants you to get invested in sticking around to see if it's HUGE. What does he care if YOU end up disappointed? Jiffy the Hypemaster.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 01:48 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Well, I can't argue with that logic, OFG!   Top

Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 09-22-11, 08:26 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Cochran's enough of a character that I think he'll last a bit longer. I think it's Papa Bear's turn to go to Redemption Island if Savaii goes to Tribal Council.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 09-22-11, 09:11 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Cochran has got to be the one who concocts the HII scheme. He knows his head is on the chopping block and he is grasping at straws. My money is on him. I don't think he will be voted out though - that will be either Papa Bear or Dawn, imho.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-22-11, 10:08 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Initial reaction: Jim is not getting a good edit on Savaii. The editing this week wanted us to think positively about Ozzy now that he found the idol. Initial impulse: Jim could be voted out from Savaii. But subject to change...   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-22-11, 11:28 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" I agree with you BR but wanted to wait a little further in vidcaps and teasers to say it. Jim felt like he was the mastermind coming up with the alliance of 3 plus 2. It really is Ozzy and Keith. Jim was cocky about Cochran and Dawn being weak and "outta here". Jim has had some exposure as a potential strategist that could be seen as a threat to Ozzy. Coach said it last week "in this game it's all about loyalty". We see Jim trying to target Ozzy by stirring the pot with Whitney over the Hii. I think we may have a boot target in Jim as I see the editing showing Cochran for a deep end game run and possibly even the win. I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-11, 06:20 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" LAST EDITED ON 09-23-11 AT 07:39 AM (EST) I agree that Jim's edit is taking a turn with this week. But, I point you to the Introduction thread again, there is vidcap proof of Dawn and Jim most likely during or at the end of the lifting challenge. He will live beyond episode 2, as will Dawn.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-11, 05:51 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" All of this is making me think that Ulolu goes to TC again and Stacey gets booted. Logically it does seem a pretty safe bet that if Savaii were to go to TC next, Cochran would get kicked to RI, fake idol or no fake idol. Ozzy allowed him a pass last time, but I doubt he'd do it again. I don't see Cochran leaving the game proper quite this early, so it probably ends up as a non-issue for this week because ultimately Savaii wins the challenge.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-22-11, 11:45 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" I don't think Jim is in immediate trouble unless he decides to target the wrong target the next time. Keith and Ozzy seem content to string Jim along until he does something to upset their plans.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-11, 11:11 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" So, if the clues are divided between the two camps then the Savaii's must be going to TC That is, if the person that concocts the story about finding the idol (who I feel certain will be Cochran) already knows that his tribe is going to TC. I don't know if we should assume that to be the case. If Cochran is still sensing he's on the outs, he may concoct a story before the challenge even occurs.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-11, 01:01 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Yeah I agree with this -- it may seem less suspicious if a story is set up before a challenge as it would seem more desperate if it's presented before Tribal Council. The risk, of course, is that somebody finds a real idol not long after Cochran does and they know he's full of it.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-11, 01:16 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" LAST EDITED ON 09-23-11 AT 01:31 PM (EST) The risk, of course, is that somebody finds a real idol not long after Cochran does Well, we know that can't happen. But Cochran doesn't. ETA: It's possible that Cochran (or whoever it is) finds the clue. That would give them more security in making up a story that they found the hii.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-11, 02:19 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" I'm referring, of course, to Ozzy's HII ... when somebody finds a clue, they could possibly figure out that the clue doesn't make sense in matching with Cochran's story. I know Ozzy has gone really high up there, though it's possible a really determined person would see that there's a clue relating to a tree branch and go way up to find it. (I'm also holding out hope that a Magilla will come by and knock over the HII...)   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-11, 03:12 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" That's true -- that's why I think the story concocter may find the clue. It would be safer to pretend you found the hii if you are sure that no one else has the clue to its whereabouts.   Top

Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 09-23-11, 07:33 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" If Cochran found the clue, then he would have good reason to concoct a clue if he was sure that nobody else had the clue to the whereabouts of the Hidden Immunity Idol. Of course, he'd have no way of knowing Ozzy already found the HII, but Ozzy would be the only one to know that Cochran is lying.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 09-23-11, 08:25 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" So, we are agreed that Cochran finds the clue to the HII and concocts the story that he has "found" the HII. Ozzy knows better but keeps his mouth shut. Burned by tribe   Top

Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 09-24-11, 03:33 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" I am, at least. There are others who might disagree, however.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-25-11, 02:49 AM (EST) 20. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" LAST EDITED ON 09-25-11 AT 02:53 AM (EST) I think that's a good theory, BR. Having the clue would him something to show others, and I do think it's Cochran in trouble. Even though I posted below that it might be a trick episode with the promos, I'm starting to think that Cochran does get booted. The only reason I see him as safe is his big edit, too big for an Ep 3 boot. But if he goes to RI and returns at the merge, the edit is justified. So I don't think he is safe. When a teaser says someone makes a last ditch effort, as often as not it doesn't work out. I do see the seeds planted for Jim to get too clever for his own good, but it might not come back on him yet. Not sure if this has been suggested, but I wonder if Jim might try to flush out Ozzy's idol even though he is with Ozzy. He could try to rig a split vote; he could bend Ozzy's ear to make him paranoid enough to play it. That doesn't mean that the bootee needs to be either Jim or Ozzy. It could make Ozzy turn on Jim next time when he figures it out. Ozzy has said he will not fail to play the idol this time, so he could make the mistake Russell did in Samoa of playing it when he is not the real target.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-25-11, 11:19 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" and now I've changed my mind again! I do think that that Savai'i has got the boot story though. I think the Brandon storyline is going to run a bit longer, maybe a lot longer. We were set up for a Savai'i boot by the last episode where Jim gave us his idea of the next three. That would be pretty unnecessary to include if they were not going back to TC for another full episode.   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 07:48 AM (EST) 22. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" I agree OFG. The whole thing with Brandon is misdirection for this weeks boot. Brandon plays the challenge without his shirt, so he has to come clean with his tribe BEFORE the challenge. My guess is they are at camp and talking about the last TC and Brandon and Mikayla discuss the why he lied thing. He breaks down and tells everyone the truth of who he is, hoping they will see why he did it. They all have sad faces and we see Albert standing with a rolled up piece of paper, probably treemail, more evidence that the whole good/evil is before the challenge. See the vidcap thread for my revised analysis of the challenge, but I am 100% certain that Upolu wins and sends Savaii to TC. It also makes sense with the feeling from the "next time on Survivor" and as you said Jim's listing of the next 3 boots. I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 12:41 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" What bothers me about Cochran getting kicked to RI so soon is that he seems ill-equipped to hang in there and win a string of duels until he can return at the merge. I think he'd only last a cycle or two before getting ousted permanently. His edit doesn't fit with such a "loser" trajectory. I was wondering if maybe Ulolu goes to TC this week, and then next week there’s a tribal switch, which could put Cochran in a better position. They haven't been doing tribal switches lately though. And it does look like Ulolu will win the challenge. Maybe Cochran doesn’t get booted for some reason. I agree it’s probably too early for Jim. So, Dawn or Mark? Dawn might have another meltdown. Mark we haven’t seen any particular reason to get booted yet.   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 01:32 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" That has been bugging me too BR. Dawn and Jim are safe from the intro caps of the weight lifting challenge. SeeBS is playing with the Upolu misdirection centering on Brandon, why? To throw in an audience blindside boot. Savaii will be attending TC this week, I am sure of that. Jim and Dawn are safe. I agree that Cochran neither can withstand an RI immunity run nor does his edit favor his leaving so soon. Jim identified the next 3 to go as Cochran, Dawn, and Mark but maybe not in that order. Mark had 2 confessionals in episode 1 then dropped to none last week. although he did get a quick recap sentence in there. I'm leaning toward a Mark boot this week as an audience blindside boot. I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 02:13 PM (EST) 26. "Thoughts..." I really feel that with the preview promo that the misdirection is indeed Brandon on Upolu, AND Ozzy on Savaii. I feel like the Savaii's will go to TC, and either Cochran or Papa Bear will concoct the hidden idol story to evade being the boot. We know this because Jim says what if he does have the idol? Why not protect against that? He says "HE". So, out of the three boot choices, Cochran, Dawn and Mark, 2 are males, and we know that Dawn lives to see another episode. So it's Cochran or Mark. Cochran's edit is very large, especially in the hyping of the show and Jiffy is in love with him. Clearly he is going to last beyond ep 2. I think that we are dealing with a Papa Bear target this week as well.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 04:29 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Thoughts..." It's starting to look like that from process of elimination. I think the preview caps tying Ozzy into that scenario were just misdirection -- since we know Ozzy has the HII, they made it look like Jim was talking about him. I seriously doubt Ozzy is going to give off any clues that he has it. So Ozzy is safe with the idol, Keith is aligned with him, as is Jim, who we also know is safe from future vidcaps. Dawn we know is safe from future vidcaps, and Cochran's edit should make him safe for the reasons we've discussed. Elyse and Whitney were going to be pulled into the Ozzy/Keith/Jim alliance -- there's no reason to think they are in trouble. That leaves only Mark, who was the last of the first three targets Jim rattled off.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 02:52 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Dawn and Jim are safe from the intro caps of the weight lifting challenge. Plus Dawn is exerting a lot of effort to win this week's challenge. She shouldn't be on the chopping block after that. Cochran and Mark are barely seen in the previews -- no "OFG theory" image of either one of them so far.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 09-26-11, 03:58 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" I'm in full agreement with the arguments made above... The preview promo clues are split between Brandon and the three Savaii who are in danger at the next TC. The editing included Jim naming Cochran, Dawn and Mark as the next targets and set up the boot story for this week. We know from the wording of the clue and the weight lifting vidcaps, that Dawn is safe. Cochran’s edit so far has been that of a long term character. Mark’s “last ditch effort” may backfire when his idol story draws attention to him and the tribe decides to flush out the idol. It will be telling to see who receives the other votes, directed at the back-up boot, in the event that Mark actually did have the idol. Krautboy   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-11, 07:27 PM (EST) 31. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" >>> What bothers me about Cochran getting kicked to RI so soon is that he seems ill-equipped to hang in there and win a string of duels until he can return at the merge. I think he'd only last a cycle or two before getting ousted permanently. His edit doesn't fit with such a "loser" trajectory. Agreed with this and all the terrific comments since my last post. Cochran probably wouldn't prevail in that many duels. I still think he may "redeem" himself as it would fit his story, but too soon. Which leaves Mark, and I can see him making up the story. Marks story has been a bit more about Dawn and Cochran than about himself. Dawn shows herself an asset in the challenge. Cochran Probie might be in trouble, but the idol lie will ensure that Mark gets the votes after Jim convinces people to flush it out. I also agree with the analysis that puts the Brandon confrontation prior to the challenge. Brandon is ready to pop anyway, but when Brandon learns he will likely have to be a swimmer, he likely realizes he cannot swim with his shirt tucked up without questions asked. Whether he blows his secret before tree mail gives him the push, who knows.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-24-11, 11:45 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" LAST EDITED ON 09-25-11 AT 02:54 AM (EST) I am on board with what I think BR is saying ... this could be a week of deliberate misdirection with the clues. Remember the week last season with zero vidcaps or teasers about Zapatera, and lots about Rob's tribe, but the Zaps went to TC. It doesn't seem to me that any of the Savai'i who are in danger right now are ready to go anywhere in Ep 3, but on Upolu, Stacey is completely set up to go as of the last TC. I don't know why they would boot anyone else this early on. Ozzy should be able to pull out the water portion, and Coach excels at screwing up challenges at the end. I think we should be open to either tribe going to TC, unless we get some good vidcaps or time stamps.   Top

Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 09-26-11, 05:20 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Episode 3, "Reap what you sow"" Stacey is the obvious boot if Upolu goes to Tribal Council. But if Savaii goes, it's a little harder. But not too hard for me. Cochran's edit is that of a long-term character. He's safe. That leaves me with Dawn or Mark -- the two oldest on Savaii. I'm thinking that Papa Bear (Mark) goes because I think Dawn lasts a little longer.   Top

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